Earnings Call: Q4 2020

Mar 3, 2021

Good morning. My name is Lars Jensen, and I'm the CEO of Royal Unibrue. With a minute warning, I have CFO, Lars Westergaard, and we will present our annual reports for 2020. Following our presentation, there will be time for questions. Now please turn to Slide number 3. Our strategy proved its strength in a difficult year and our local management model demonstrated once again agility, customer closeness and great service levels despite significant changes on a daily basis. Despite all the challenges, we have managed to get through the year with very few COVID-nineteen affected employees, while customers' rankings were strengthened even further. We increased our value market share in all of our key markets by channel, and we improved our financial performance significantly on the back of the highest volumes ever produced and delivered. We could not have done this without an outstanding performance and strong teamwork across the organization, something we can be all proud of. And I would like to use this opportunity to thank all employees for a solid performance in 2020. There are several long term growth opportunities within our multi of his business model, be it in low no alco or no low sugar or significant growth within energy drinks and ready to drink. We will invest more funds behind these and other growth opportunities in the coming years. Please go to Slide number 4. We have reorganized the leadership of the company by establishing a senior leadership team with a core focus on commercial closeness to consumers and customers, On continuity and diversity, we have revisited and aligned our short term as well as our long term strategy. We have taken a longer view on categories, countries and channels during recent months and established our long term view on consumer trends. Our conclusion is a combination of reconfirming and redefining our focus slightly. We confirm areas with a no low alco, no low sugar as well as premium products, while we increase our ambitions and growth views on the energy drinks category, enhanced drinks and ready to drink categories. In 2020, we have also established a new long term ambition for the total CSR area, which aimed to move us into the front among sustainable beverage companies within the next 5 years. Most of our short term targets for 2020 was met during the year, and we are well on track to deliver on our long term targets for 2025. We see CSR as an integrated part of our strategy, which enhances of business opportunities. The outlook for 2021 is given under greater uncertainty than usual, which we'll address at a later point in the presentation. We expect an EBIT for 2021 in the range of 1,475,000,000 to $1,625,000,000 whereas a dividend of SEK 13.5 per share will be proposed to the AGM, which corresponds to an increase of more than 10% compared to last year. We have also initiated a share buyback of $250,000,000 this morning, covering the next 3 months. During the summer, it will be decided whether an additional share buyback program will be started, which will depend on the state of COVID-nineteen and our financial flexibility. We will expand further on that on the outlook later in the presentation. Please move to Slide number 5. We want to be the preferred choice of local beverages, a partner that challenged the status quo by doing even better every day in a fun, agile and sustainable way. We want to be the preferred choice for our consumers, customers, people and shareholders as well as being the preferred choice for the future. Royal Unibrew's overall strategy remains to be a strong regional multi beverage provider in selected core markets as well as in other markets where we want to build and develop strong niche positions. During our strategy review, we look at our purpose and the DNA of Royal Unibrue, and this led to the purpose which focuses on the preferred choice, and this will guide our thinking in relation to how we act and behave towards different stakeholders. We want to be the preferred partner for our customers with the most relevant innovations for our consumers tapping into megatrend, which is as an example, health and wellness, authenticity and care for the environment. We thereby expect to create Volume as well as price mix growth leading to efficiency improvements in the total value chain, but we also need to reinvest in the chosen growth opportunities, why we maintain our long term EBIT margin target of 19% to 20%. Our focus is titled slightly more towards absolute EBIT growth rather than EBIT margin expansion. Growing the pie is more valuable in the long term, and the senior leadership team and I are convinced that we have many exciting growth opportunities, which will drive higher organic revenue growth and thereby EBIT growth going forward. Historically, around twothree of our organic of our growth is organic and has thereby been from the old business, whereas about onethree has been created through directly through the acquisitions. We will pursue structural improvements through M and A and partnerships. We'll focus on Western Europe, while we maintain our financial flexibility to support the realization of both the strategy and our financial targets. Please go to Slide number 6. To be the preferred choice for the future, we want to lead the beverage industry with respect to the climate action and the demand for sustainable products to become the preferred partner of choice for customers who will focus more and more on sustainable beverage suppliers. We want to grow our portfolio of no and low products faster than the underlying markets, which means that we by 2025 will allocate a minimum of 40% of our marketing budget to brands and campaigns with a clear sustainability position. By 2,030, we aim to reduce supply chain emission by 50% across Scope 1, 2 and 3. This target includes that we will be 100% carbon emission free by 2025 in Scope 12 as well as our 100% on packaging will be either recycled, recyclable or reusable already from 2025. We want to be the preferred partner for our people, which means that we must be recognized as a sustainable business that fosters a sustainability culture promoting safe and healthy working environment, whereas people feel proud, included and have equal opportunities to realize their potential. We will develop tomorrow's talents, while building competences that ensure our success today and tomorrow. I will now pass the word on to Lars Westergaard, who will take us through the financial performance, the business segments and the outlook before I will wrap up and we will go to the Q and A session. Thank you, Lars. So if we can now turn to Slide 7, please. 2020 started with ambitious plans and focus on continuing the underlying positive development in earnings from prior years. After a strong beginning in January February, all plans were changed in March when the COVID breakout. To manage high uncertainty, we revised our plans and managed to deliver a profitability in 2020 that slightly higher than it was in 2019 and among other things, based on continuously growing market shares. Compared to any other year, categories and sales channels have developed very differently during the year. The commercial parts of our organization have done outstanding job in refocusing sales efforts to the growing categories and sales channels and at the same time spending a minimum of resources on declining areas. We have never experienced such extensive changes in volumes from on trade to off trade, from kegs to cans and pet. Our supply team colleagues have done a great job in adapting to this new reality and produced record volumes during the summer. All in all, our total volume increased by 1% and was the highest level ever. The changes in product, channel and country mix resulted in a negative 3% Pricemix, meaning that the reported revenue declined by 2% in 2020. EBIT increased 3% to a record of 15.50 resulting in an EBIT margin of 20%, corresponding to an expansion of 90 basis points compared to 2019. This very satisfying result was, amongst other things, driven by a sharp reduction in sales and marketing costs, which was significantly reduced in connection with the outbreak of in March last year. The spending level we've had during the summer months was not consistent with our ambitious to continue to grow and develop the business, And we have, therefore, in the late summer, started different projects to ensure that we have momentum as we move into 2021. This includes capacity expansion, selective commercial investments, IT investments and maintenance cost. Important to notice is the fact that we have increased our share of voice in 2020 even though we have reduced spending significantly. Our free cash flow increased by 24% to CHF 1,414,000,000 but was admittedly positively impacted by several temporary factors that will give a negative impact on our free cash flow in 2021. I'll get back to that later in the presentation. Our working capital was positively impacted by beer campaigns, mix And CapEx came in lower than expected because of restrictions that made it difficult to make progress on our projects during the year as we did not want to have external people going into the breweries. We estimated that these factors in total had a positive impact of more than CHF 250,000,000 and that the underlying normalized free cash flow was closer to $1,150,000,000 in 2020. If we turn to Slide number 8, please. International had a very strong year in 2020 with 6% volume growth, 11% revenue growth and an impressive 30% EBIT growth, resulting in an EBIT margin of 22.2%, up around 3 20 basis points. Our main brands like Faxe, Tempt, Grodo and Malt Beverages are enjoying very strong market positions, and we have successfully rebranded some of our products as well as we are continuously expanding our distribution. In 2021, our focus will be on the areas that have performed increasingly well in the past couple of years. Our international business is benefiting from mainly being an off trade In Western Europe, the total volumes showed a 3% decrease in 2020, Whereas net revenue from beverages declined by 5% as on trade and border business was significantly hit by COVID-nineteen. EBIT declined by 5%. So despite the volume reduction, we succeeded in defending our EBIT margin, which only declined by around 20 basis points. Throughout the year, COVID-nineteen restrictions on social gatherings and opening hours challenged our on trade business in all markets, but it reopens new opportunities that the local organization quickly responded to. In Denmark, we hosted the biggest virtual beer tasting event in Denmark and brewed a beer for the famous Danish TV show, Net Holler. And when the market reopened during the summer, we supported bars and restaurants with initiatives to support their business. Our most challenging market was Italy, where about 60% of our business is in the entree. To partly compensate for the effects of this Significant decrease in sales during the periods with lockdown and restrictions, we are focused on boosting our off trade operations and ensuring that wholesaler Cash and carry channels were well stocked and activated with our Jairus and Lemon Soda brands. Jairus has, in particular, performed well in off trade channel, where we launched a range of specialty beers next to our iconic Sierra StrongHale. In France, we focus on building a solid platform from which share in lemonade, a category which grew faster than the general soft drinks market. In the Baltic Sea segment, volumes increased by 3% held by the Extraordinary Beer campaign in Finland. Net revenue was down 2%, but we managed to increase EBIT margin by 100 basis points to 20.8%, driven by tight cost management during the lockdown periods, but also by the acquisition of Bauskas. The Baltic Sea segment was also impacted by the COVID-nineteen restrictions, but to a lesser extent, as it was it came to the Baltic Sea segment at a later stage, and the on trade level is lower in the Baltic Sea than it is in the rest of Europe. Our original long rig continues to grow. The campaign, the greatest day of the year, reached 480,000 participants in 2020 compared to 200,000 in the year before and despite COVID-nineteen restrictions. In the Baltics, we have less we have been less impacted by COVID-nineteen as we are less dependent on on trade channels in this region. The beer sales in Lithuania and Latvia have developed positively supported by products from our latest acquisition Bauskas, which is performing better than expected. The addition of Bauskas in Latvia have strengthened our multi beverage model in Baltics. Bauskas is now fully integrated into the business and have from the 1st March, 3 days ago, been moved on to our group wide ERP platform. Please turn to Slide number 9. The chart to the left shows how the ON and OFF trade developed during 2019 compared to sorry, developed in 2020 compared to 2019 and gives a clear picture of the impact of the restrictions during the year. We started the year on a strong note. January February was strong, and our pipeline of launches and innovations was very promising. When COVID-nineteen broke out in Northern Italy in the Beginning of March and soon thereafter, in Northern Europe, sales in the on trade and convenience, in particular, took a strong step back, whereas off trade did not really catch up as consumers destocked home inventories. However, in April May, We started to see high uncertainty, but as society partly opened again towards the summer, our sales picked up despite restrictions in events and gatherings. The uplift in sales was led by a combination of good weather and staycation effect. September October turned out to be close to normal months, While November December, on the contrary, were quite difficult months with newly imposed restrictions and lockdowns in our markets. This graph should also give you a pretty good picture of how much the on trade business suffers from restrictions and lockdowns and what magnitude our off trade business have been able to mitigate it. And it also gives you an indication of the run rate as we have moved into 2021. Italy was significantly impacted by lockdowns in the country as the on trade share of this market is large, and we are over indexing in this channel. On the contrary, our Danish off trade business did extremely well in 2020, gained market shares and mitigated the negative impact from the periodic close of the Entre business. Now please turn to Slide number 10. I will now turn to the outlook for 2020. We guide for an EBIT in the range of $14.75 to $16.25 which corresponds to a range from a flat development compared to 2019 to an increase of 11%. We believe that 2019 is the right year to use as a base for weighing the outlook as 2020 was an abnormal year. We expect to increase our commercial investments in growth in 2021, also when you compare to 2019. We see several growth opportunity, as Lars have already mentioned, within low and no sugar and alcohol, within energy drinks, ready to drink and Hans Waters, just to name a few. High under the guidance, implicitly assume a reopening of the on trade during in the beginning of the Q2 as well as the lifting of the gathering restrictions in the beginning of the Q2. In the same way, the lower end of the guidance assumes a reopening of Entreid towards the end of the second quarter with restrictions continuing into the second half of the year. In other words, we expect 2021 to end with strong momentum, but the start of the year is challenging and the span of our guidance It's really about the timing of the reopening of societies. The guided range may also seem very broad, But we learned during 2020 that COVID can be fairly unpredictable, so the guidance is based on high uncertainty. We do expect some A normal summer in 2021 as was the case in 2020. And our guidance range also assumes a normal Christmas season, which was significantly impacted by lockdowns in 2020. Please move to Slide number 11. Before Lars wraps up ahead of the Q and A, let's look at the cash flow. The cash flow was very strong in 2020. The team did an outstanding job in collecting money owed to us. We have, however, not changed any of the underlying payment terms with customers or suppliers, So the working capital will normalize somewhat during 2021. Free cash flow has been significantly positively impacted by temporary factors in 20 20 factors that is expected to revert in 2021. We estimated that the extraordinary beer campaign in Finland impacted net working capital by around $120,000,000 positive in 2020, and we do not expect to get this campaign back again why this impact will revert in 2021. We have postponed tax payments of around CHF 45,000,000 in 2020, something we do not expect to be repeated this year. And finally, The fact that off trade did better than on trade and Northern Europe better than Southern Europe throughout 2020 means that we had a positive effect of around SEK 100,000,000 as there are general shorter payment terms in Northern Europe and off trade compared to on trade. This means that the underlying free cash flow in 2020 is estimated at around SEK 1,150,000,000 Looking at 2021, it is worth noting that we increased our investments in CSR initiatives on the back of our long term sustainability strategy. We do expect a net working capital headwind in 20 21 compared to 2020. We also expect our net investments to be higher in 2020 and around 5% of revenue due to the fact that some of our CapEx plans were pushed from 2020 into 2021. And because we are expanding our capacity in some areas to support our future growth. As per our guidance, we do find it most likely that we would deliver an EBIT growth in 20 2021, I. E, EBIT should be a positive contributor also in 2021. As a final word, let me just underline that the Lars marked as illustrative, so do not base your estimates on the basis of that. And with that, I'll give the word back to you, Lars. Thank you, Lars, and please move on to the last slide. I would like to conclude this presentation by outlining that what is on the agenda for 2021 and for the coming years, and that is to drive organic EBIT growth. It will be very important for us to increase our commercial spending in order to maintain and ensure a strong underlying momentum in our business. We are right now performing very well and winning market shares across all countries by channel, and we see new and emerging growth opportunities in, as an example, Energy Drinks, Ready to Drink and Enhance Waters. On the short term, we will still focus to live with COVID-nineteen and the effect is an effect it has on our business. We need to continue to have focus on costs to maintain a high profitability, but it's also important that we invest in the markets and channels that are actually growing and some even quite significantly, which means that we want to continue to strengthen our position across countries. As Lars just mentioned on the previous slide, we are stepping up on our investments. We need to support future growth through capacity expansions, and we want to invest to become the preferred partner for the future to lead the beverage industry with respect to climate action and the demand for sustainable products. Clearly, at some point, COVID-nineteen will no longer impact the on trade business significantly. Societies will reopen slowly through nightlife, music and sport events will again be part of our everyday life. At that point, we will be ready to support our on trade customers to secure them a strong and good return to business. We have a strong balance sheet, which also gives us the opportunity to pursue value creative M and A. We will pursue structural improvements with a focus on Western Europe through M and A and partnerships. This has historically been an important source for EBIT growth. And if possible, we want to continue to grow EBIT also through M and A. And with that, I would like to turn the words to the operator, and we will be ready to take your questions. Thank you. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we'll now begin the question Westergaard. Westergaard. So our first question is from the line of Edward Mundy from Jefferies. Three questions, The first is on your Slide 5, which clearly shows this new model that you're working towards With the reinvestment and still keeping the 19% to 20% margin target, but trying to grow the absolute EBIT as the key Consideration, could you talk about some of the initiatives behind reinvestment? I mean, you've talked about commercial investments, but is there people, is there NPE, Is there renovation? Could you flesh out the reinvestment element of that waterfall chart? The second question is around the balance sheet. You've got a very strong balance sheet. And even after a good dividend and also a decent buyback, you're You're still going to have a very strong balance sheet. Could you talk about what your priorities might be, either in terms of categories Or geographies, is your preference to get a fast growth brand you can pop through your hopper and accelerate? Or are you looking for sort of turnaround opportunities? And then the third question is really around your new CSR targets. With regards to product So is that more focused on the low and no sugar part of it? Or is it the low and no alcohol part of it, what the biggest focus is? Thank you, Ed. So the growth formula, so to speak, that we are presenting here is not really changing a lot from the thinking that we have had throughout the last, I would say, 1.5 year or so. We have gone through, I would say, an assessment in our core markets where we have identified, I would say, some growth pockets, which is beyond the growth pockets that we have identified before. We have good momentum in the business, And we believe in the long run that it's much more important for us to grow the pile, the size of the business, while we keep our margins at the level that we have announced with the 19% to 20%. There's big differences between what kind of investments that we're talking about depending on the geographies. In some geographies, it will be more marketing led, so above the line, whereas in other geographies, it will probably be more below the line. In some areas, It will be e commerce based. It will be tools in the commercial front where we will gear up. So it really depends on a country base and category base what we need to do to secure that we, I would say, grow above the market in the categories that we talk about. When it comes to the Balance sheet question, we have not changed our financial objectives and targets. We want to keep a strong balance sheet and with the optionality of having a bit of firepower for potential structural developments. We are not a bank, so we do not have an intention to delever significantly from where we are today. So you will see that we are not changing anything on that note. But COVID-nineteen is, of course, as we also highlighted last spring, is delivering some fluctuations to cash flow. So that's the reason why that we're initiating a share buyback, which is lower than what you have seen back in time, but it doesn't prevent us from launching new programs at a later stage if the balance sheet allow us to do so. So no change in our thinking on the balance sheetM and A piece. Maybe Lars, you will give a comment on the CSR question. So on the CSR front, we've shown you in the annual report some of the growth we've delivered in different categories. So you get a little bit of a Perspective of what are the categories that grows the fastest. We, of course, believe that as a beverage supplier, it's important that we offer choice to consumers so that if you want to have a low sugar variant of soft drinks, if you want to have a Nice beer without alcohol that we will give you the option to choose these things. So for us, as being a sustainable beverage partner, we want to give choice to consumers so they can enjoy good beverages also without getting sugar or alcohol content. So for us, it's really about making certain that we have a very strong offering in both areas. We'll, of course, continue to develop our portfolio of, what you can say, sugar soft drinks and as well as alcoholic beverages. But I think we believe that it's important to tap into these megatrends where people want to have a more healthy life. So we will give the choice and we will focus on both low alcoholic beverages, low alcoholic ready to drinks as well as soft drinks with a low sugar content. Thank you. So our next question is from the line of Vincent Ryan from JPMorgan. Thank you. Please ask your question. Good morning, Lars. Two questions for me, please. Firstly, you mentioned that the start of 2021 has been challenging. Could you put any numbers to that, probably speaking in terms of top line and appreciate the comps from March last year, so they're quite easy. But Would it be safe to assume that maybe the Q1 looks not dissimilar from Q4 2020? And then second question, you mentioned your investments It's around e commerce. Could you give us a sense of how much your existing E commerce sales base was during 2020 and how much sort of that developed during the year? And like how much incremental investment do you think needs to go in, Are there CapEx or OpEx in Danish krona terms around your IT digital investments as well as maybe some of the incremental ESG If we start with the first question then on Slide 9 in the deck, we've shown you how On and off trade performed during 2020 by month. The restrictions that we saw as we entered into 21 was very similar to what we had in the end of 2020. So I think you can maybe extrapolate a little bit from that. I think it's clear when you look at the quarters in 2021, the first quarter is going to be the weakest. And then where we see big flex is, of course, in the Q2 depending on the speed of the vaccine rollout. And then hopefully, as we go into the second half of the year, we should see strong trading in both quarters in the second half of the year. But If you look at the picture in the deck, then that's what the start of 2021 looks like. So the challenge sits in the on trade business, whereas the off trade is performing in line with the trend that you see going out of the year. So it's really the on trade piece that we define as being challenging. On the question around the e commerce, so it's e commerce is many different angles. It's a business to consumer where we like in Denmark have defined beer tastings as one of our core. And we are launching the world's biggest beer tasting in May. It will be broadcasted on Danish National Television and will be in collaboration with many of our customers. So that's a part of and they call it an e commerce initiative, which is really bringing, I would say, the digital tools into a totally different level. So that's one angle. Another angle is around the tools that are used by our sales force, so CRM systems. We are rolling out our on trade CRM system into further countries. When we talk about business to business, it's mostly, I would say, driven by to our customers' platforms so that we bring business to our retail customers in particular. And in the countries where we have the highest share of e commerce, it's about 7% of our revenue that derives from e Commerce, whereas in other countries where the restrictions has been less and where Retailers in general have been more open. You would see a level that is down to 1%, 2% of our revenue. So the span It's pretty wide. And we have also seen that the changes are pretty big between restrictions times and times where restrictions are less. When it comes to the investment that is behind It is for now, it's mostly a people driven thing. It's not big CapEx. It's more, I would say, directionally in terms of making sure that from a priority point of view, that we have enough people on ground to enhance the systems and to work with the customers, then it's CapEx. So it's more OpEx driven to your question. Great. Thank you very much. Our next question is from the line of Frans Hoyer from Thank you. Please ask your question. Good morning. Thank you very much. First, maybe you could offer some details On the stocking cycle in the international business in the Q4, were did you actually build up downstream Stocks and inventories or big customers have stable inventories during the quarter? And also a question on the we've obviously been very successful in 2020 with regard to controlling Costs and suppressing some costs and so on. And I was wondering if you could talk about how much of the cost reductions achieved in 2020 might be sustainable going into 2021. And then finally, an update on the 2 acquisitions, Lorena and Grover, and how that investment case He's working out. As you see, obviously, it will have been impacted by the pandemic. I understand that. Yes. Thank you, Frans. When we look at the international business, the stocking that we talk about here is actually a restocking to reasonable normal level, I would say. So there's no expectation that there will be a negative impact in Q1. So it's more normalization. We are enjoying, I would say, record high sales out numbers when we look at our core customers. We are following inventories from around 85% of our our customers in the international segment, which is our call it our core customers. And the sale out that we report that they report and thereby also defines their stock levels is going out of 20 20 higher than what we have experienced in other years. So the momentum in the international business going out of 2020 is actually pretty strong. So No negative effects should be expected in Q1 because of the comment that we have made. When it comes to the M and A, so how are they performing? We are performing in the French business with Arena. We are performing really, really well. So we have throughout the year enjoyed, I would say growth that is beyond both the soft drink category and also the lemonade category. And we have, towards the end of the year, record high market shares. So we are really doing well, and we are delivering, I think interestingly enough, for the trade, a lot of value because it's a premium proposition and thereby the margins So the trades are also higher than on a normal average CSD. So we are really doing well and in that respect, enjoying good feedback from the customers. So where the Lorena business has been challenged during 2021 is on the new listings that we have been working on. So the rollout of call it the international rollout of Lorena in countries where they were not present when we acquired the business To a large extent, this is what we are waiting for now. So that is in front of us as an opportunity. In Crodo, it's a little bit the opposite because Italy has been challenged in many ways during 2020. On trade has been closed down. There has been lack of tourists. And Crodo is a seasonal product and thereby has been hit more than other categories of soft drinks. We are within the lemonade, we are keeping our business at the same market share. So we are we're not losing ground, so to speak, and we are doing that on the basis of a price increase in 2020. So from a value proposition point of view, we are creating value for ourselves and for the trade. So pretty good achievement. And on the international front, Kroglobe continues to deliver in the markets where Croda has been present for a number of years and where we are behind our ambitious planned is on the listing in new countries because at most retailers, as we have talked about throughout 2020, did not rebuild their shelf. So when we look at these two acquisitions, our view is still the same. We are on track, and we are ready to deliver whenever the retailers are open for listing again. So I would say a confirmation of the cases more than anything else. And regarding your question on cost funds, I think if I may just take a step back before We go into the details of the answer. When we saw the performance of the business in the different segments during the late part of 2020, We saw that we were actually gaining share in most markets. And when you look at our bottom line performance during 2020, we also delivered strong profits compared to all competitors. So I think we are quite encouraged about the underlying performance of the business. And The guiding principle we have is that when we get out on the other side of this whole pandemic, we want to come out with a very strong momentum in the underlying business. So we will be investing selectively in growth areas because we do believe that this underlying momentum is really what is going to drive the business as we move forward. If you then look at what are we spending in at this point in time, we are very selective in where we spend money at this point in time. So we are not spending the same amount of money as we would have done in a normal year, but there is money to be invested behind the At this point in time, you see very strong dynamics in off trade, you see very strong dynamics in energy, in sugar free sodas and so on and so forth. So we are spending money where there is growth to be had, But it is clear that we are spending a lot less money now that we are in the middle of the pandemic. On whether some of these cost savings we're doing Sustainable, I would say, if you look at the production facilities on logistics across the business, we are exceptionally busy at this point in time. The volumes that are going out, the production that we're doing for the high season is very high. And The operation was in a good shape when we went into COVID. So we are not seeing big opportunities to restructure our footprint and take cost out. We think The business model we have works even when it's difficult, and we think we'll get out on the other side with a lot of momentum in. So where we see opportunities to take out the permanent cost is, of course, in the traveling area where we have, like everybody else in the world, learned to do efficient online meetings. But we are not seeing a big change in the structure of our cost. And perhaps just a quick addition On the commodity price front, what happens in 'twenty and what do you see happening in terms of P and L impact in 'twenty one? Yes. If we I think we are quite in a good position when it comes to 2021 as we have hedged the majority of our commodity exposure. It is clear that there is increase in commodity prices in both in the mineral space, but also in the malt space and so on. So luckily, we are quite well covered for 'twenty one, but I think as we look unless something changes, then there needs to be a conversation on price increases. During 2021, as the cost level goes up for the entire industry during this year, unless something changes later on in the year. Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Jemaima Winstead from Citi. Thank you. Please ask your question. Hi, good morning, everyone. Yes, it's Jemaimo Venza from Citi. Three questions from me, please. Firstly, Just on M and A. Obviously, 2020 was a quiet year. But I was hoping you could flesh out a bit more the sort of targets you're looking at for 2021 and beyond and How you see the environment playing out this year? Is this realistically a story for the second half of the year? Or is the environment picking up already? Secondly, just to pick up on some earlier questions around capital allocation. You've obviously announced a further buyback within the results. And I said that the Board will consider any further buybacks in the summer. I was wondering if you could be a bit more specific as to when the earliest is that the Board might Consider the potential scale of any buybacks in the second half of the year. And what sort of KPIs will determine that decision? And then finally, just around marketing spend. You're obviously guiding to an increase in sales and marketing spend in 2021, and we saw this in Q4 in Finland. How should we think about the phasing of this through the year? And any kind of regional mix commentary you might be able to share? Yes. So if I take the last one first, I think when tying up, I would say, the marketing costs, When the consumers consume, often has the biggest impact. So there's 2 impacts. There's a long The impact of building the brands, the awareness around the brands and then there's a connection to with the marketing and at the drinking occasion and thereby optimally in the beverage world, I would say that most of the spending should happen in this towards the end of the second quarter and into the Q3. Last year, Most beverage companies, including Royal Unibrue, we did cost severely during the period where people actually consumed most of our products, and that was not optimal. So I would say, if you look at our marketing spending in the years prior to 2020, Then you get, I would say, the right phasing of how money should be spent in reality. So comparing 2021 to 2020, I would hope that we will have much more spending of sales and marketing costs in Q2 and Q3 and less in Q4, if you look at the percentage splits between the quarters. On the M and A front, I think we have as we have said on previous occasions as well, The COVID times have put a little bit of restrictions on a number of, I would say, potential processes. But we do see during the last, I would say, 3 months or so that there is more and more activity in the, call it, Small to midsize targets where family businesses are thinking about what they want to do for the future. It doesn't necessarily mean that they will go into but there's more, I would say, conversations around M and A than what we saw 6 months ago or 9 months ago where everybody was going silent and was waiting to see what would happen. So I will not be surprised if you would see across Europe, which is our core focus, that you will see Smaller deals happening, I would not be surprised. And regarding your question on capital allocation, I think what we we've increased our dividends. We've launched a share buyback. And I think we have indicated very strongly that it will be evaluated again over the summer if we should do a second one. The reason for this approach is, of course, that we are living in a period where uncertainty is very high. So in the absence of acquisition candidates, if the The COVID restrictions are lifting. I think the board will be ready to look at further allocations during the summertime. So I think you should read a little bit of caution into this, and I think you should read a little bit of optionality into the way We have expected our distribution to shareholders during this year. It's not a change in strategy. We've got an extremely strong balance sheet, but we want to make certain that we have the flexibility to do what's right for the business during an uncertain period of time. Great. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Andrea Pistacchi from Bank of America. Thank you. Please ask your question. Yes. Good morning, Lars and Lars. Three questions, please. First one, you said that you're gaining share across the majority of the business. Could you put a bit more color on that? And then if you can share any numbers? And what geographies would you be particularly pleased with in terms of performance. And then a couple of technical questions to help us sort of Shape our numbers for this year. When you your guidance is you're assuming a normal summer. What does this mean in terms of Staycation. Obviously, last year, there was a significant benefit in Q3 from staycation. So what would be your base case there? And the second question is on stock levels in the on trade third question, stock levels in the on trade. I assume stock levels are very low at the moment. Do you have a is there must be a plan or a timing to obviously build stock levels? Do you have that in mind? Or will it clearly depend very much on when the reopening takes place? Should we see any of that in Q1 already? Thank you. Yes. Thank you, Andreas. If I take the last one first, stock levels in the on trade in general, I would say, going out of 2020 was at a fairly low level. I think most on trade outlets have been able to reduce their stocks going into more lockdowns in January. We do expect Finland that will go into a restaurant lockdown now from Monday and towards the Easter that they will destock during this week and next week sorry, during this week and the next week, they cannot serve. I think there is, in general, low stocks, which ought to be positive and cover up for some of the losses that we have seen in the beginning of the year, whenever it opens up. And then of course, it depends on which magnitude it opens up. So that's a bit the situation. When it comes to the market shares, We, of course, need to look at it on trade versus off trade because we are not gaining share in Italy overall because the magnitude of the on trade that we are losing cannot be covered up by the off trade business. But I would say I would highlight I would say the two areas I would highlight in terms of our ability to gain share is in Italy on our beer business. So since June, After that, we have, I would say, refocused our efforts between on trade and off trade. We have enjoyed market share gains, which is exiting the year is about the double growth that the beer market is growing in general in the off trade. And of course, there's a conversion of sales from on trade to off trade, but we have been far better in taking, I would say, our share of that going out of the year with the initiatives that we have taken. So Cheers is doing well in Italy. The other one that I would highlight is the Danish organization, and there's a lot of movable parts, So difficult to make a long term judgment on it. The border trade has been closed down during periods, and that have moved, in particular, soft drink sales from the border to the Danish retail environment. So we have gained share because of that, because we do not have the Pepsi business on the border that is serviced by Pepsi's organization in Germany. So we have captured that in Denmark. But when you look at the other categories that are not subject to, I would say moving consumptions from the Board of Trade to the Danish business, we are also gaining value share. So The Danish retail organization, which has been helped by a lot of the on trade guys that have actually spent their most of their time in 2020 in off trade, has really delivered a strong performance and momentum going out of 2020. And To your last question around how should we think about summer weather and staycation, I think these 2 are Two different effects and that they can be separated out. If you look back to quarter 3 of 2020, That was a period where we had a lot of Danes and a lot of Finns and other people from the Baltic countries staying at home for the summertime, and you saw Very strong numbers. So depending on when the traveling restrictions will be lifted, we could see If they are not lifted when we come to the summer and the people in the Nordics stay at home, you could see a positive impact from that during the summertime. The summer in 2020 was July was not particularly good. August was good. So it was a fairly normal summer in the In northern countries in 2020, if we get bad weather in the summer, it will, as always, have a negative impact. If we get good weather, it could be a positive. I think the staycation effect is the one that is probably most important to continue to focus on because That can be a significant positive effect on our business in the Nordic countries. Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Markus Bellander from Nordea. Just a follow-up question on France's question about M and A and the international segment. I'm curious about the Canadian acquisition you made a couple of years ago, how it's been faring and if it has been the springboard for the French and Italian products that you hoped it would be. So if you could share some details on that and your latest thinking on it. Yes. So the Canada acquisition, which In a Royal Unibrue scale is, of course, a small piece of the puzzle. We have gone through a professionalization of the organization throughout 2020. And while we have done that, we have said goodbye to a couple of agencies that at the end of the day didn't really fit our portfolio. And we have said hello to a couple of new agencies, where we have which are stronger agencies and where we have performed far better in sales out than the agencies that did the business before. So we are strengthening our own business with the Foxa brand, most and for all, and the Vitamol business, which is also a Peter in Canada. We are strengthening the or have been strengthening the agency business around it to create portfolio, which is important. And what we are looking at going into 2021 is an aim to increase distribution of our own brands. So that is Groto, that is Lorena and that is also Fox in some of the territories. And you need to remember that the Business is, in particular, strong in Ontario, 1st and then second in British Columbia. And a territory like Quebec, is not really a territory where we have done a lot of business before. So that's a potential that we are going to tap into in 2021. We are getting out of the year as we planned apart from the on trade, which is not Roy Unibrew portfolio, but some of our agency brands are pretty strong in On Trade and that business has, of course, suffered throughout 20 and is awaiting that on trade will open up to the full so that we can also, I would say, harvest on that going forward. So We are in a good spot, so to speak, on the Canadian business. Okay. And would you say that I mean, I guess, it's I guess, 2020 has been an extraordinary year in many ways, and maybe it's Too early to say, but this strategy of buying distributors, is this something we should expect to see you do more of? Or Will you go back to focusing on buying brands? It must fit strategically. And you need to remember, in this case, Faxia was about half of the business in that specific agency that we took over. So we really bought ourselves a sales force, right, on ground. So it's not buying a distribution business. But I think overall, we think about Markets in different contexts, you always need to have right brands that are relevant for the consumers, But you also need to secure that you have the right route to market. And in the Nordic markets, in the Baltic countries, etcetera, We have a route to market model where we own the route to market. In other markets, we work through wholesalers. So We are equally happy with each of the versions, so to speak, as long as it's what serves the market best. I hope that Understood. That makes sense. Thank you. Absolutely. Thank you. Okay. Our next question is from the line of Mitch Collett. Thank you. Please ask your question. Lars and Lars. I'd just like to come back to the reinvestment you're pointing to and the long term margin target remaining Between 19% 20%. If I've read the slides right, you're saying 3% to 5% organic sales growth is About the right range to expect in the long term. But I guess that's not so different from the level of organic sales growth you've achieved In the past, and I know there's a star on the volume growth and price mix improvement section of that slide that says that it refers to EBIT contribution. But I suppose one way to read that would be that you have to invest more to achieve the same level of growth. Is there maybe something like medicine? Perhaps you could just give a bit of color about what the benefit of the reinvestment is likely to be? Yes. So the growth formula that we have established, I would say, Hans and I, about 3 years ago, is in principle the same. But I think we reckon that there's Great opportunities to grow top line more than what we saw in the past. In order for us to do so, also to premiumize our portfolio, we need to invest more on the commercial front. And of course, that at the end of the day, will create some sort of a balance that will lead to the 19% to 20% in the scenario that we are looking at, at this moment of time. But we are not changing our focus from being very, very efficient and creating operational leverage. That's exactly the same as we have done before. So We do see higher growth opportunities top line than what we have seen before, and that will cost some money. And we will, on certain initiatives, invest ahead of the curve because that is needed to make sure that we grow, I would say above the category performance. So I think you shouldn't read, I would say a big change into this. It's a modification, but it's a modification that aims to grow the pie. And with a bigger pie, you overall, at the end of the day, you also, I would say increase your likelihood of being able to deliver on your margins. Did that answer your question, Mitch? I think so. I guess maybe if I could try and paraphrase and maybe I'll get it wrong. I think what you're saying is that you're still taking You're still finding ways to be more efficient. You're reinvesting those benefits. And that gives you perhaps scope to be more towards the top end of that range of volume and price mix And maybe you were in the past. Is that a fair way to explain that? I think if you Calculate the organic growth in our business going back historically and you take out, call it, the onetime effects that we have experienced, as an example, in 2018, with great weather and with the easening of the restrictions of alcohol sales in Finland, We have been averaging around 2% or so in terms of organic top line growth. And what we want to do is that we want to On a constant basis, if you look at it as a CAG, over time, we want to grow beyond the 2%. So that's the way that you should understand it. Understood. Thank you. Thank you. So our next question is from the line of Christian Bernstein from Liberum Partners. Thank you. Please ask your question. We cannot hear you, Tristan. Hello, Tristan, your line is now open. You can go ahead and ask your question. Apologies. I think I should know I'd be on mute by now. Good morning. Just three questions from me. On what are CSR and employees? Just the first one on water, guys. What is the role of water in terms of potential M and A? There seems to be a lot of assets coming on to the market. And I guess the question is really, do you believe that water could be a stand alone business, like in your niche Categorization or is this always a need to be part of a multi depth strategy to be viable As you have in Denmark and Finland. The second question is on CSR. And it seems quite an ambitious program, and I haven't gone through the detail. But That 5% CapEx rate of revenue just seems very low. So maybe just give a bit more, To use horrible words, color around that. And the third question is on employees. I think you're the only beverage company in 2020 To actually increase the number of employees in your business, I just want to know if that was just purely a function of your Latvian craft acquisition Or there's more there's something else that's going on in terms of the people you're invested in. If I take the last one first, which is, of course, the easiest one because that's talking around history and not the future. Yes, we did acquire some staff, of course, from the Bauskas acquisition. And on top of that, we have been producing the biggest volume ever, and we have also supplied the biggest volume ever. We have had a different mix between channels, and that means that we have had extra hands to help us on the off trade side of the business. So on top of what we have had previous years, so we have net when you look at it on an FTE basis, we have had more people in the business average than what we have seen in the past. And that's in spite of the fact that we have had A lot of vacancies throughout the COVID period, so positions that have not been filled. But the magnitude of the business and the changes between the channels have had the opposite effect. On the question on the M and A side, I think the broader discussion really depends on the geography And the type of business that we talk about and the potential, we do see within water In some of the geographies where we work, that enhanced waters as well as flavored waters as Waters with additional benefits is continuously enjoying traction from the consumers. And you could see maybe, and that's still to be proven, that some water brands will be able to travel towards being more functional and being less just as a plain water. There's also big differences if water brands Our carbonated or non carbonated as an origin and thereby, if they are over time a potential competitor for some of the soft drink territory, etcetera, etcetera. So water is a category that we are following closely. And we do see, I would say, synergies to our current business. If it's strong enough stand alone, I would say it's a bit too early to call that judgment because it depends on the brand, the geography and what we would be able to build around a water proposition if this is a platform in a new country. Okay, very clear. And to your question around the CapEx level, I think what when you look at our footprint, it is, of course, important to note that The 0 target we put in for 2025 is around the breweries, where in reality, what we need to do is to electrify a large part of the places that are currently being where we use gas and similar things. Those investments are, of course, of some substance, but not something that really where we have to go out and change the whole layout of the production facilities, where the real big change will happen in order for us to become CO2 neutral in the coming years is around how We get the energy. So there are several ways of getting the energy. One is we build our own solar parks, which will be Expensive, if that's the route we end up taking. The other route would be that we partner up with energy companies and we ask them to build wind farms or solar farms. And then we procure the green energy from them. If we choose the 2nd route, that will not lead to any CapEx on our side. And it is, of course, true that the 5% CapEx targets that we have is Very low compared to competition, but we also have a footprint where you can say we have big facilities that produces a lot and that is a very efficient way in terms of keeping a low CapEx level. But it is true that the CSR investments, if we choose to do things on our own, it will be put some pressure on the CapEx level. And I think on the distribution front, which is probably the more challenging part on our own footprint, The technologies are not there to do radical changes in the short term. So we are we've also had distribution that's done by 3rd Parties, we have our own distribution. Those CapEx investments will come at a later point in time because Technology is not ready yet, so maybe you will see a pickup in coming years when solutions are there, but it's not something that is ready at this point in time. Thank you very much, guys. And then I think we have Soren and Sumpter as the last one. Sorry, sir. Our next question is from the line of Soren Samsel from SEB. Thank you. Please ask your question. Thank you very much. The quality of the summer's past, I'm not sure this has already been asked. But First of all, in terms of your guidance, if you could say a little bit of what you have included in terms of, Let's say pent up demand or catch up effects, so from consumers and entrees, do we do sort of when it comes back, do we expect sort of a normal Demand, do you have already included in guidance that, that will be a catch up effect? And then if you have, for how long? And then also have you included an effect of the European championships in football? Or would that be an upside to your guidance as well? Yes. And then I know maybe talk a little bit about when the staircase effect would kick in, if there would be any Yes. And then I have another question, but let's do this first. Yes. So regarding The guidance question, I think what we've explained earlier on is that what we have included as on like the top and the low end is Some uncertainty regarding the restriction levels. And the earlier the market opens, the more we are to the upper end and the later it opens, the more we are to the lower end. When the markets open up, you will See a little bit of catch up effect, probably more in our Italian business than in our Northern business. So if you look At Denmark and Finland, I think it's very likely that you will see a gradual opening of on trade and then the restocking will come over a period of time. There's not a lot of stock in trade, but I don't think it's markets where you actually see a lot of stock in trade. So how big that catch up effect will be It's probably not a big factor in the greater scheme of things. And regarding staycation, I think the longer it takes before the restrictions are lifted, in particular on the traveling restrictions, The more likely it will be that we have a very strong staycation effect like we had last year when in particular in Q3, where we had very Good business in particular, Denmark and Finland. And football, I'm not a big football fan, so I'll leave that to Lars. I think football or not, Olympic Games or not, I think everybody will be excited around what will happen from a social gathering point of view. So I think we don't know how restrictions will play out. I think If we will not be able to watch football together on big screens or at the stadiums, I think people will gather locally, fewer people, but ultimately, probably leads to the same consumption. So but as we have said on many throughout many years, World championship, football championship by itself is not changing our guidance. It's not changing our expectation for the year. It's 1 year, you have something another year, you have something else. It's a continuation year on year. Okay. And then finally, a question on the I mean, it sounds like Your model is being tilted a bit more towards organic growth. But could you tell us these segments that you want to grow in and put more marketing behind, I. E, no low calorie, no low alcohol, etcetera. Are these typically do they have higher gross margin or lower gross margin than the average Gross margin for the group. I think the journey that we initiated back About 5 years ago, when we put our I'll say our focus around craft beer have moved on as a theme within Royal Unibrew. And whatever we do, we will always try to work ourselves up In terms of premiumization, in terms of price pack strategies and in terms of the overall portfolio, which is through the benefit of the consumer because they get more, they get either relevant, it can be a different packaging, which fits the occasion, but it also delivers value creation for our customers. So I think you can rest assure that the categories that we are looking at here are all categories where we see, I would say, net more opportunities than what we see on a genuine mainstream level. And maybe to give A little bit more of a practical flavor around how this all plays out. I think the new CEO we have, Lars, The way we are conducting the business revenue now is that all markets are really having to come up with plans, in particular, in the growth growing categories where there are high margins. And if they come up with good ideas how to grow in energy as an example, There is money to be invested behind these. And if you look into the annual report, you will see how different categories are growing. And when you see some of these category growing, there is extra money being invested into commercial initiatives to capture So I think that's a little bit of a change to the past where we probably had to earn our rights To grow in a certain market now it's if the market is attractive, if have a good proposition, you will be able to invest up in order to get a strong position. Okay. That sounds promising. Thanks for the color, Rans. Thank you very much, and thanks for all the questions. Rounding up, I think The conclusion is that we are very happy with the delivery of 2020 also when we compare to peers in the industry. So a nice job done by everybody in the organization. We are exiting the year with good momentum, and that has also been confirmed through the 1st couple of months. We still need to keep the hands on the wheel. There's a lot of uncertainty out there, but we are well positioned. So thank you very much for listening in, asking questions, and we wish you all a nice day.