Good morning, dear audience. We would like to welcome you to the presentation of Trifork's Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results. My name is Kristian Dollerup from Trifork Investor Relations, and I'm hosting this from Zürich with my colleague Frederik and our CTO Preben. Today, our CEO Jørn Larsen and our CFO Kristian Wulf-Andersen will start by providing a circa 20-minute presentation, and thereafter offer you a Q&A session. Before we start, we have a few housekeeping points that we have to run through, and first and foremost, I would like to inform you that this presentation is recorded in its full length, and it will be made available on the investor web later today.
Second, I would like to inform you that if you want to download the presentation, it has been released on our investor web front page, and you'll later also find it under the tab Events. Third, we invite you to ask questions after the presentation, and have the chance to engage with management. The way that works is as regular that you can raise your hand in the system, and we will then unmute you, announce you when it's your turn, and then you should be free to ask your question. We will of course do our best to ensure that everyone gets a chance to ask their questions within the allocated time we have available. Before we get started, we quickly have to show a disclaimer, and that's this one. Please have a quick look. Yeah.
I think we're set to go, and I hereby hand over to our CEO, Jørn Larsen.
Yeah. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for showing up to this presentation of our 2022 financial numbers. In 2022 was overall a good year for Trifork. It was not an easy year. It was full of, yeah, disturbances such as war, supply chains challenges, et cetera. Even though we managed to pull through and reported for us, satisfying year. Here, as we will always show you, the revenue growth in a long perspective. Here you see it since 2007, we reported a revenue of EUR 185 million, which was a growth of adjusted 20%. Let's move on to the EBITDA. The Trifork segment adjusted EBITDA resulted in EUR 31.9 million, which was a total growth of 17.3%.
We can move into the next. Kristian, could you take us through the guidance for 2023?
Yes. Here we have collected all the guidance and actual results. What you see here at first is the realized 2022 compared to our guidance, and you can see all over that we have been in our guidance and in upper range of guidance if you're looking to revenue, also mid of guidance in relation to adjusted EBITDA, and then upper level of guidance in relation to Trifork Group EBIT. Here we have also added our guidance for 2023. What you see here is the EUR 205 million-EUR 215 million in revenue, and this corresponds to a growth between 10.9%-16.3%.
This including the acquisition or growth that we expect to have from the acquisition of IBE, this we expect to count in somewhat between 2%-2.4%. This acquisition to some extent also have some deconsolidation you could say, because we already had just about EUR 1 million in revenue to IBE as a customer in the past. Looking into Trifork segment adjusted EBITDA, we for 2023 guide at EUR 34 million-EUR 37 million, equal to a margin between 15.8%-18%. If you take the lower revenue and the top EBITDA or the higher EBITDA and the lower revenue.
You see the Trifork Group EBIT, where we also expect an increase to EUR 20 million-EUR 23 million equal to margins of 9.3%-11.2%. Mid-term, we still keep our guidance in the same way as previously, meaning 15%-25% growth, and then including in that a 10%-15% organic growth and improved margins both in relation to adjusted EBITDA in the Trifork segment and EBIT on the Trifork Group. Last but not least, we also still are guiding to be within a level of up to 1.5 in relation to leverage net debt to adjusted EBITDA.
Thank you, Kristian. Let's take you through some of the highlights of 2022 and Q4. In specifically, for the whole year, we saw that churn came down compared to the year before, and also churn in Q4 in particular is at a level where we are starting, you know, to accept it, but we still believe it's possible to have it lower. Here we are more or less on market, but we like to improve from here. Inspire, the big highlight there was the acquisition of a conference series in Australia. The reason why we did that was simply that it was a conference series that we actually co-founded in 2008 that was then taken over by a partner.
Last year we got it back, it's an old friend of the group that is now consolidated. In Build, we saw 19.3% organic growth in the quarter in Q4, which is very satisfying and a Run growth of 31.6% in organic revenue growth. Both Build and Run was strong in Q4. In Labs, we did follow-up investments in &Money, which is this joint venture between Trifork and three banks in Denmark and Cache, which is a R&D fintech company that will provide new and innovation technologies to the market. The events after Q4 is now that we consolidate, as Kristian mentions, the IBE acquisition in Switzerland. Let's move on.
Here you can see the financial highlights of Q4, 2022. Here you see that we have the organic adjusted revenue growth of 20.1%, which is a very good number for us and where we would like to be also in the future. Let's see if it's possible. We have a Trifork segment adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.5%, which is also a very good place for us to be. It's good to see that we ended the year 2022 on a high and what we can also see that now we are 66 business units at Trifork.
We have 24 active Trifork Labs startups. We have chose to disclose more information about our Labs portfolio, and we will get back to that in a moment. We are more than 1,000 headcounts, almost 1,100. Our digital channels on our Inspire continues to grow. We have included other social media platforms such as Instagram that is picking up very nicely, and next quarter we will also report on that. Let's move on to the next. Here we can see another view that you are used to in regards to Trifork segment and Trifork Labs segment. This view here I like because it kind of also shows the size between the Labs and the segment.
Here being the Trifork segment is the big and the Trifork Labs is a minor part, but a very important part of being an innovative next gen company. You can read about how we drive those two segments in the report. Let's move on. Here you can see some of the work that has been documented in our financial report. If you're really interested, you can see these case studies and quotes from our customers and I don't want to pick out one here in particular. We have a case story coming in a moment. Our strategy house, we have maintained and the strategic priorities in 2022 are they're listed here to the right.
I just wanna highlight one that personally and the whole management team has been working quite hard on, and that is how to make sure that we get a good evolution in our DNA throughout the whole company. We have performed a number of leadership workshops where the business unit leaders from the different business units are meeting in groups and today we have seven groups meeting three to four times a year where we plan, you know, strategic development and also we train and we exchange good practices on how to grow a healthy business. Let's move on. Here you see for the Trifork segment that we are now in 14 countries. We are 66 business units, as mentioned before, and just short of 1,100 people.
What we don't see here is that now we also have business in Australia and in the U.S., but we will, we will keep you updated on that in the quarters to come. Here's the case story that we chose to feature in this presentation. Being in Switzerland, it's hard to avoid flying with SWISS, and actually SWISS is one of my favorite airlines. As you can imagine, I travel quite a bit and it's a pleasure, the way that SWISS treats the passengers and also the way they are very responsible with minimizing food waste and optimizing customer experience. This is done through software that we deliver through our group company, Vilea, and they have had this customer relationship for years and we are constantly updating this.
Basically when the plane takes off, the crew of the plane has all the important information on the passengers that are needed to perform a good flight and a good experience, but also a safe journey for all the passengers. Let's move on. We maintain our engagement model to the market. We call it Inspire, Build, Run, as you know. Here you can see that Inspire is slowly picking up. It's now 3.1% of the EUR 185 million and we are getting close to all-time high. You know, before COVID, we had EUR 7 million-EUR 8 million and now we are around EUR 5.5 million in Inspire.
The relationship between Build and Run is more or less maintained, but we do see Run increase a little bit here, which is quite happy. You see, as I mentioned, the Inspire Q4 revenue growing 136%. Actually, for a long time now also a quarter with a positive EBITDA of EUR 0.4. That's, of course, very promising to see that development. Let's move on. Here you see an overview of our six business areas, and we will dive down into our verticals first. Our three verticals, FinTech, Digital Health, and Smart Building, as you can see here. What I wanna highlight here is the development in Digital Health for the year. As you can see, for Q4, there was a very high revenue growth in Digital Health.
For the whole year as well, a 66% total revenue growth for Digital Health. I hope to see that we can enter yet another market in 2023. In 2022, we put Switzerland on the map of Digital Health. It is a big mission we have, and it's a very important mission, and we're working extremely hard for the success of the digital development in healthcare in Switzerland. Let's move on to the horizontals. Here, as you can see, again, as you recall from previous presentations, Cyber Protection is now 8.4% of our total business, and in Q4, had an increase in revenue compared to the year before of 27%, and for the full year, 45%.
A very nice development in Cyber Protection as well. We also continued our investment into Cyber Protection and into operation, and we believe that that will pay off in the future. Let's move on. First of all, here you can see a new overview. We will talk a little bit about our lab investments, so we can take some of, you know, some of the feedback we had that it's a little bit mysterious what we do in labs. We of course we don't see it that way, but we like to be more transparent on what we do in lab and why we do it. You can see to the left what we're looking for. You can study this in our presentation and in our report later.
Also the outcome we are looking for. The whole point is that our lab should really support the work we do in Trifork segment, as also indicated on the earlier slide. Let's move on. Here is a quite new and very important view. The way we track and the way we would like to have you to look at our portfolio is, okay, so let's see the top five. How do they account for our book value? You actually see that that's close to 70% of the total value in our book. The top five being AxonIQ, C4Media, Dawn Health, Promon, and XCI.
There we have a combination of a large ownership share, and also these five companies are in a very healthy situation, despite even the world economical climate at the moment. Kristian, maybe you can just take us shortly through for these five the different ways we do discounted cash flow or we do a latest investment round.
Yes. Actually, we also provided this table you see here in the annual report, where you can see the rationale for investments, you can see the ownership we have, you can see the stage of the company, and you can see the valuation method as you see here. As you see, we have four companies valuated through DCF models, and the remaining companies in relation to financing rounds. Here you see two of the top five is based on DCF models, and the reason for that is that the companies are mature, they don't need any additional funding, they are earning money, and they're paying out dividend to Trifork.
Thank you, Kristian. Let's move on. Here you see where we injected money into the Labs. It was cash and that money. Let's move on to the next. Here is an important overview of, you can say, the maturity level of the companies, and then the year they were founded. This give you an indication of are they growing on a healthy curve? You can see, for instance, AxonIQ, you know, founded in 2017, and now, you know, five years later, already at a Bridge to B-Round , and very loyal and solid investor base. That's a, you can say, an example of a nice development in a startup that started really very small.
Let's move on. Kristian, maybe you can take us through some of the ESG update. There's a lot of new stuff there to tell about.
Yes. Actually here, the most important thing is that there's a link to the new updated ESG report that we also published today. This report is very comprehensive compared to previous reports, and covers all the requirements from based on the EU Taxonomy and the relation to all emissions, et cetera, and also the governance topics from the Danish authorities. In here in that report, you can find all the targets or, and all the emission numbers from Trifork in scope one, two, and three. It's really a lot of information you can find there.
One thing maybe to point out here is that our use in all our offices went up to 87.6% of green energy, which is definitely in the right direction. We're all not there yet, still struggling with a couple of the landlords to actually get green energy in. We have it on our mission, if they won't supply it, we have to move somewhere else. Also you can see a picture to the right here. That's the rendering of the Trifork Smart Building One. Now finally, after having some issues with the deliveries of components to building, we expect this to be finished in the Q2 and taking into operation. We look very much forward to do that. Otherwise.
Yeah, Kristian, I just wanna.
Yeah
A few things here maybe. Yeah, the example of our self engineered and architected building, Trifork Smart Building One that you see on the picture, as Kristian mentioned, that we are close to moving in. It actually represents a lot of new innovations and one of them actually links right into scope two, namely the energy and the CO2 emitted from heating the building. When we have a very windy day on the winter, there is a heat loss of 100 kilowatt in this building.
The way we actually insisted on doing this heat, you know, add to the building was using solar wind, solar panels and then drive a heat pump that when the sun is actually there, we accumulate that energy in a hot water reservoir. Actually if we compare that to a normal central heating system in an office building, we actually have a CO2 optimization of 24 times. Actually the taxonomy actually links quite well into how we like to see the world develop. There are not many buildings that are this efficient in generating energy and heat from nature.
Okay. Moving over to the performance, the financials, Jørn already elaborated over some of the numbers. I'll go a little more into details and explain a little more, and otherwise you are welcome to ask questions after the presentation. What you see here overall in Q4 is the 20.1% organic growth when taking deconsolidation of Dawn Health into account, that accounted in 2021 for EUR 900,000. You see also that apart from acquisitions, inorganic growth was only EUR 100,000 in Q4, meaning that the majority of growth here was organic. In relation to the Trifork segment performance, what you then see here is a growth or increase in margin from 17.5%-19.5% in Q4.
Overall accounting to the 17.3% margin that was reported by Jørn to this EUR 31.9 million for the year. The Trifork Group performance where we guide on EBIT. The new focus here and reason for having also adjusted EBIT here was because of the eye procedures in 2021 and all the cost allocated there being adjusted, and also adjustment of the profits from Dawn Health last year. We did not have any special items in 2022. Looking into this, you see the Q4 adjusted EBIT going up from 9.3% to 12.3% in Q4 2022, which is a satisfying development from our point of view.
Looking a little more into Trifork segment performance and the sub-segments, here you have the actual numbers and not only the percentages in relation to how the different sub-segments developed. You see here the development in the Inspire in the below, in the first graph to the left from EUR 2.4 million-EUR 5.7 million. You see how the increase also went up in the Trifork Run-based sub-segment. I'll come back to that a little later. Here on the right-hand side, you see the margins. You see that Inspire now has a break even more or less, a very small minus.
We do expect for next year that to be a break even or maybe even a profitable business as it was in the past. Looking into Build-based segment, we totaled a 20.9% margin, which is a satisfying level, close to what it was in 2021. Even with the, you could say the abnormalities we had in Q3, Q2, with one debtor loss and some delays in engagements, et cetera, which we reported in Q2. In the Run-based you still see a margin below what used to be average. This of course is impacted by the investments that we have accounted for, the non-capitalized investments, which total EUR 1.6 million for all of 2022.
We'll dive a little more into that afterwards. Inspire subsegment performance, here you see the actual numbers. In total, this was 136% growth in the quarter, and 104% growth for the year. The Build-based Build subsegment performance here, you see revenue here. The increase in revenue overall was the 16.5%, but the 19.3% in Q4, which was very satisfying. In relation to the margins, more or less what I just told you, that we had a higher margin also for the year, or at the year, equal to what it was in 2021. The Run subsegment performance, here you see for the quarter, you also see for the full year.
The quarter was at this 10.2% increase. When comparing, we also need to compare to what was hardware sales. I will come back to that on the next slide. We did see a lower hardware sales in Q4. Looking in the overall increase, it was only 10.2%, but I will come back to that. Overall for the year was a satisfying increase with 19% in revenue. What you see here is also the margins from the annual margins of 16.7%. Actually, it already in Q4 improved to 20.1%. Also, the investment we had in Q4 was less than it was in the previous quarters, and to some extent, that was part of that increase in margins.
This we also expect to move forward, that we can increase margins in Run more, based on now not having the same investments into the operation centers, but also that the services and the products are more ready to increase sales in the Cyber Protection area. Here is the more detailed view, which you can also find in the notes in the annual report, in relation to how especially hosting security and license support, which is the most recurring revenue we have in the group and in the Run-based segment, how that developed. You see here from Q4 2021 to Q4 2022, there was a big difference in the hardware-based revenue. This is why I'm talking about these different numbers.
We're only looking into hosting security license support, we saw a growth of 30%+ in 2022. Looking into the lab segment performance here, on the left-hand side, you see the EBT. This EBT was combined by a negative EBITDA of EUR 1.5 million, which is expected, which is the cost of running the labs organization, and the increase in valuations of the lab companies. In total, this combined to EUR 4.4 million. Looking at the right-hand side, you see the orange and dark blue bars. That's the booked value we have in the FREYR Battery, meaning EUR 40.2 million as investments or cost of active investments.
That said, you need to look into that as saying only half of this is actually cash investments, and the second half is coming from the deconsolidation that we talked about earlier on Dawn Health, which account for EUR 20.3 million of the EUR 40.2 million. The EUR 20.1 million is then unrealized gains in total in the Trifork Labs accounting we have right now on the books. The EUR 73 million is the accumulated realized gains, meaning the cash that we got out from all the exits from investments after deducting the initial cash investments. Overall relation to cash flow and financial position, we had a so-solid cash flow coming in in 2022.
Net, end of the year, we had a net cash position of EUR 3.7 million, equal to a leverage of -0.1, to adjusted EBITDA. This was the financial walkthrough, and now we're ready to take questions. Okay, please raise your hand if you have questions. All right. Let's start with Paul. Paul, you should be able to ask your question now.
Yeah. Can you hear me?
Yes, we can hear you.
Okay. Okay. Congratulations for a very strong end of the year. That, that looked very, very strong. I was just thinking about the Run segment, where you look at, reiterate the recurring revenue in the business. Can you say something about what drives then the volatility from quarter to quarter to better understand what's driving it when it's recurring?
Yes. I mean, some of the revenue is based on consumption, and some of the revenue is also based. That is a little volatile, you could say, throughout the year. Not there's any special seasonality in it. Some is also when we are implementing new services or new functionality on an existing platforms, et cetera, then there could be some higher add-ons to the recurring revenue.
Okay. This is the part where when you guide the highest growth for next year coming from Run that's then the hosting and the security that should continue growing?
Yes. Also because we started last year to move from, you could say, from one-off sales also from licenses, et cetera, more to be a kind of SaaS models on the Cyber Protection solution, but also in some of the hosting environments. We developed a new Trifork Cloud Stack solution, which we then sell in the same way. That is really something that we expect to...
As you did, in 2022, just to have a clear understanding, that was investments into the platform and costs that are recurring going forward?
Yes
Was it one-off costs?
That's investment. Yeah, you could say that's investment into the operation centers in relation to automate the operation centers and to, you could say to get them into operation. Actually this cost is also something that had an impact on revenue because we used the same resources that we would have used to, you know, do external jobs to actually do it internally in order to make room for future growth.
Kristian, can I just add here? I think the question was a little bit different. Paul said, "Is it a recurring cost? Do we expect the same level of cost this year, next year and the next year?" I think also was in the question.
Sorry. No, we don't expect that. This is a, it's a one-time cost you could say, and it was lower in the beginning of the year and the end of the year, and we only expect a maximum 40% in the next year of what it was in 2022, but potentially lower.
Just to get some insight, you won two larger Danish contracts in the fourth quarter, in Eki-Net and Sundhedsdatastyrelsen. Can you put a little onto these? Is this new business? Is it expanded businesses or is it just extension of existing contracts?
I mean, the Eki-Net in particular is a very large framework agreement. That's new business. It's an expanded relationship with that customer. The in the area of Digital Health, I mean, to continue the work and expand the work in an organic way that we have done for many years in Danish Digital Health in particular, that is more or less continuation, but with some add-ons.
Extension plus extra business.
Yes. Yes.
I have two final ones. The current market conditions, how do you look at that? You mentioned higher risk, in your guidance, but is it something you've seen materialize into new business?
I mean, Paul, as you can see, the Q4 went quite well, and we would be very happy if we can have more of those quarters over the next years. It does show the potential we have. You can say when the market situation is more challenging as it is now, you can say we just have to look harder to find the business. The potential is huge. We have a survey from the U.S. saying that the mobile-first strategy, which is a lot to do with what we do in Smart Enterprise, that only 15% of the largest 500,000 enterprises worldwide are actually using smart devices as a part of optimizing their business.
From those 15%, they only use 5% of the features. You know, you can say it's not difficult to find these logos because they are everywhere, as you know. It can be difficult to land the business in our at Trifork. It's more demanding to do business development, but there is still a very high potential. The same you can say about Cyber Protection, because Cyber Protection has kind of the same, it's a lot of potential, but you need to work quite hard to actually get this level of, you can say trust between us and the customer when we start a new relationship.
Okay. Makes sense. The final one on Nine, the put options that they had on the 30%, they expired, as you write, early 2023. Are there any news say if they have been exercised or if they have just expired?
No, I mean, you see in our financial report that the obligations to the put options are now as current, meaning that it's within one year. This is the status we have right now. As we also have explained earlier, is that we are looking into acquiring additional NCI. We already communicated that the NCI and airline solutions we're looking into acquire. We will also be discussing now when the market is open for this, discuss with Nine if we're also going to take over the NCI this year. Currently in no new status.
If you exercise a call or they exercise a put, will it require an announcement?
I would expect that, yeah.
Okay. Thank you.
Okay. I think it's Serge from Credit Suisse.
Yes. Good morning, gentlemen. Can you hear me?
Yes. Good morning. We hear you fine.
Okay. Perfect. Good morning, everybody. Well, I have several questions. Probably I start with the first one about acquisition or inorganic growth. You say that you want to grow up to 2.4% or this is equal to EUR 5 million incremental sales to or thanks to acquisition. Why such a low number? Is it due to missing opportunity or is it due to the restriction of the balance sheet? I'm wondering, you mentioned once that you would go for a leverage of 1.5 times. Is this still valid or did this change because of rising interest rates?
Thank you. It's a very good question, Kristian. I can take it because it's of course an overall, you can say balance between risk appetite and opportunities. We are at the moment walking through a lot of potential M&As. There are none whatsoever imminent or even close to complete, and that should be seen from different angles. You know, one is that of course when the economy is worsening, there are also a lot of not good acquisition targets that might try to sell to you, so we have to filter all that. Then we proactively have to look for the ones who are not yet for sale because that's probably the ones you want to buy, so that's a lot of work.
When you can see that we can do a quarter as we did Q4 that is actually within the middle of the range of our total midterm expected growth, I mean, we'd rather save our dry powder until we really see something that we are very excited to bring into the group. Another thing is that we just talked about the NCI, and so in a year where we could potentially bring down the NCI, that also requires a lot of cash. No, the EUR 1.5 is still what we are comfortable with and we are not so worried about the interest rate and of course not now when we don't have any net debt.
Still, the 1.5 is something we can manage. This I would say is the comment to your question there.
Yeah. Maybe also just to clarify that the 2% to 2.4% in inorganic growth, that's the growth by acquisitions that we already have performed. If we would do any additional acquisitions then we would update that number accordingly.
Yeah.
Sure.
Yeah. Yeah.
Sure this was my mistake. Obviously clear EUR 5 million is consolidation impact, yes. Right. Would you pay then if you could wish with debt or with cross-shareholdings?
Sorry, I didn't get the question.
If you could buy now, make an acquisition, let's say a larger one, Would you offer disguised or would you raise debt or even equity?
I think if you look back at what we have done in the past such as in the Nine case, you would see a combination of cash earn out and then also buying less than 100% and also we pay partly with equity. Probably a combination of all the things you mentioned.
Okay. Got it. Very helpful. Thanks. I switch quickly to revenue if I may. You want to increase top line by EUR 20 million-EUR 35 million. How much of this amount you already have in your books and for how much you still have to strive for new clients or projects or,
This we have not published anything about. Of course we have our internal numbers, but this is not something that we have selected to publish.
Okay. Still you have been growing quite well in the Build business, +20% as well as +10%. Is this more or less a handover then from Run to Build or where do you see where growth is coming from in regard to the markets or countries?
No, we don't see a handover from Run to Build. More the other way around, from Build to Run, when we develop a partnership.
Okay
W ith a strategic customer. You could say we also have published that in the Build-based revenue, then 77% of that in 2022 was actually from repeat revenue, what we classify as repeat revenue, meaning this is revenue within existing customers. In 2022 we really grew the most revenue within existing strategic customers.
Okay. Helpful. Yeah, obviously I was wrong from the Build to Run and not the opposite. Probably the last one, do you already have enough people to cover this incremental sales?
One thing that is interesting if you analyze our numbers from 22 you would see that we have grown revenue quite more than we have added people.
Mm-hmm.
This is of course good for risk, but it's also good for when you are going out and have to be in the market of talent. For sure, during 2022 where you could say Q1 2022 was probably the worst time in history to get talent and to get the people we really need to execute. Whereas in Q4, it already shifted a lot. You all saw the announcement from big tech.
Mm-hmm
W ith the Facebooks and Google and everyone laying off thousands of people, you know, when the big ones are doing that, a lot of others are doing the same. I cannot tell you why, but they just do. As you know, we didn't. We added people. Of course, when everyone are shaking the trees, there is an increased appetite to go to Trifork. Although we are still small, our brand is still increasing in force. It is also getting easier to onboard, but also because I believe we have the best workplace in the world. In tech, we can really provide an excellent working environment where we can offer that you become a partly owner of the company.
You work with interesting stuff because we are on the forefront of technology. We have labs, we have conferences and if you have a really good IP idea, you know, we can, as we did in Nexonic, we can turn it into a successful lab company. I think we are very attractive company to work with, but also we need to tell that story way more. It's way easier to acquire new talent than it was a year ago.
Okay. Probably last and then I will stop for my, for my other colleagues. We will see then a hike in personnel expense. Do we have to expect this in the first six months or more in the second six months also regard to margin volatility?
Kristian, you wanna answer that?
Yeah. Sorry, I didn't hear your question.
I understood from that you will increase personal expense or hire new people. Should we expect the hike in personal expense in the first six months or the second six months also in regard to margin volatility?
I would say, you know, hiring would be distributed over the year, in all our different business units. If you're thinking about inflation, then I think we are, we have done, you know, the regulations needed, et cetera, but that is also offset to new engagements, agreements with our customers. But I would expect, as Jørn talked about before, that we will see a higher increase in revenue as well in 2023 than the increase in salary cost and number of employees to employ.
Okay. We will watch out. Many thanks. Bon voyage, yeah?
Thank you.
Thank you.
Okay. Any other questions from anyone in the audience? Yes, Mads. We'll turn you. I think you should be able to talk now.
Yes. Can you hear me?
Yes, we hear you fine.
Yes.
Perfect. One question on the guidance. Currently guiding for 8%-14% organic growth. Maybe you could talk a bit about what will get you to the low end of current guidance and the high end of the guidance. That'll be my first question.
Yeah. Do you wanna pitch in this, Jørn, or should I?
I think you can do that.
Okay.
It's numbers.
I mean, of course, we have a room of this uncertainty. We have a fourth quarter which came out quite positive, and if we can continue that journey, you could say, for the rest of the year, then we would definitely be in the higher guidance. Of course, we also see that things can disrupt as we saw in 2022. I would say the lower guidance would be if we see kind of the same disturbances again, existing customers, delaying engagements, et cetera, then that would also could cause us to be at lower end of the guidance.
Okay. Yeah. Very clear. Maybe one question on cross-border opportunities, and maybe this is within the Digital Health business. Just trying to understand, are you close to sort of get a breakthrough into a new country? It seems like the U.S. is a more important country for Trifork today. Would this be a key strategic market going forward?
Yeah, it's a very good question. Thank you. The U.S. today represents EUR 7 million-EUR 8 million out of EUR 185 million. And our experience with developing business in the U.S. is that actually it's easier than it is in Europe, and also with, yeah, in general better market situation. We do intend to increase our effort into accelerating our growth in the U.S. In particular in regards to Digital Health, we are very happy also with our lab company, Dawn Health, that has, you know, a head start bringing their services into the U.S.
It was actually a big part of the strategy move when we deconsolidated Dawn Health, you know, it was mostly about attracting working capital to the company and not as much as we sold anything. It was a dilution of our ownership based on a reasonable valuation. That capital is being now put to work in expanding, in particular, in the U.S. market. Of course we monitor that very closely. You should also see our lab companies as sometimes being icebreakers for Trifork, because a lab company is always more risk, has more risk appetite than a Trifork. You know, we're more cautious about what we do, and we wanna feel safe when we expand. Labs is also about that.
I don't think, you know, we will probably see a lot of revenue in 2023 from Digital Health in U.S., but I would more expect it to come from Smart Enterprise where it's, it would be probably way easier to acquire a business than if you compare to Digital Health. Because Digital Health in the U.S. is a risky thing. You probably all know the lawyers, the ambulance chasers and all that it's, you have to be sure what you're doing in the U.S. It's a high-risk market when it comes to liability, et cetera.
Very clear answer. Thank you for that. My final question here. I know the European Union is currently looking at AI, and we have this EU AI Act coming up with a outcome in, I think it's in March or in the summer or something. Could this have any potential negative or positive impact on Trifork?
Yeah. It can certainly have an impact. If you look at the GDPR and the Cookie Laws implemented by EU or led by EU and what actually we ended up with. I mean, I think the intention was good and healthy, but if you look at some of the websites today where you enter, you can see sometimes 5,000 cookies in operation. It doesn't really help if you just make people used to accept cookies, and then they don't really know what's going on, because it's so. If you really need the service of a website, you more or less have to accept. It doesn't maybe really change a lot with the. It just becomes something in the way.
It doesn't have the intended effect that you actually see less, you can say, well, monitor of data from people. With the AI, I hope it will have a positive effect on what you will use AI for, but I don't hope that it will have a negative effect that in more, you can say, innocent cases. Let me take an example where we use AI. For instance, we have worked with the Danish Rails and DSB to prototype systems in trains where we are looking at the signals. You know, there's the driver in the train, and this person is of course responsible for the safety of the driving.
Sometimes you have really bad weather and you need to look, stare into this rain and fog or whatever it is. Of course, there are electronic systems as well in place, but sometimes they fail. We have, together with them, developed camera systems that are looking out in the front, and they don't look for people, or they don't do facial recognition or anything, but they do signal detection. It would be sad to see that the law would prevent systems like that that increase safety just because EU wants to limit AI. I hope it's not going in that direction.
Okay. there is an underlying risk that you will have to sort of, you know, change a lot of your systems.
Yeah
Y ou know, in order to comply with the new regulation.
Yes, there are underlying risk. There are also underlying opportunities. Since we don't really know where it will end up, we cannot really know.
Yeah. It makes sense, yeah. Thank you so much.
You're welcome.
All right. Thank you, Mads. Any other questions from the audience? Okay, it looks quiet. I think we will conclude this session. Just before letting you go, I have a couple of practical informations. We hope to see you again soon, of course, in one of our investor roadshow, shows or other meetings. As mentioned, you'll find this presentation and the video recording on our investor site. Next time we have a publication for our Q1 results will be on May third. We will provide more practical information about that on either via mail to you or on Trifork, investor.trifork.com. I wish you all a nice day.
Thank you.