Good morning, and thank you for joining us during today's live stream event. We will be giving you an overview of Elia Group's half year results. For this, we are joined by the Group CFO, Catherine Vandenborre, and the Group CEO, Chris Peeters. Welcome to you both. What will we be examining this morning? We will first look back at some of the group's notable successes from the past six months. Chris Peeters will join me to talk about the current geopolitical context and explore how Elia Group can contribute to the establishment of a more independent, resilient, and climate neutral energy system. Catherine Vandenborre will then take us through the financials, and finally, she will present the group's outlook for the rest of the year.
Before we start, we must share a disclaimer with you, as mentioned in the slide on screen now. You must read this before we can continue, and I suggest to continue this presentation as the slides and the script will be made available online later today. With that, we can move on to some highlights from the first half of 2022. Let's start off with a short video of a recent Euronext Brussels moment. At the end of June, Elia Group took part in the bell ringing ceremony following its successful rights offering of EUR 590 million.
3, 2, 1.
This EUR 590 million from the rights offering is the biggest amount that Elia Group has ever raised since its IPO, which was already 17 years ago. The transaction took place in the middle of turbulent geopolitical events and difficult financial markets, but nevertheless, 100% of the new Elia Group shares were subscribed. Chris, without becoming too overconfident, we can say it was a success, isn't it?
Yes, indeed. It was a very successful capital raise, and that was nice then to have, of course, the bell ringing ceremony to celebrate that. We already felt during the roadshow that we were very well-received and people liked the activities that we discussed with them, and as well that the investment story that we have was a very attractive investment story and that we had a good track record in delivering that. Today as well, we face the future with confidence. We have many challenges in our sector, as you know, but we have a good track record and a very capable team to deliver on them.
It's a robust growth story. Only three years ago, Elia Group celebrated a successful rights offering of about EUR 430 million at EUR 57 per share, and the latest offering was at EUR 124.5 euro per share, so that's two and a half times more than in 2019. Catherine, what does that say about how the group and its share has been evolved in those last three years?
Well, I think that the changes in our share price reflect a healthy mix of resilience and growth. In addition to our existing infrastructure, we are operating in a segment where investment opportunities will continue to present themselves. Combined with our strategic vision, I think we can say this appeals to investors, Marleen.
Yeah. Now, what about the shareholder mix? Has this much evolved since this last transaction?
Not really. When the subscription period came to an end, almost 89% of the new Elia Group shares had been subscribed. This reflects the trust that both our core reference shareholders and existing investors have placed in us. The remaining 11% of rights we offered through a private placement to institutional investors. The offer was oversubscribed 6.3x . We see the successful capital increase as a reflection of the great appreciation that investors have for our work, but at the same time, we recognize the responsibility we have to maintain a high level of performance for everyone who has invested in the company.
Mm-hmm. Talking about performance, let us dive into some numbers. Catherine, without going too much into detail yet, what results from the first six months of the year can you share with us?
Let me start by saying that ETB and 50Hertz have invested so far EUR 623.6 million, with a focus on projects that are aimed at strengthening the backbone in both the Belgian and German grids and integrating increasing amounts of renewable energy into the system. Chris will walk you through the key CapEx project later. In terms of financial results, Elia Group achieved strong results across all three segments, leading to an increase in the adjusted net profit of 24% to EUR 186.7 million compared to the first half of 2021. This also translated into an increase of the earnings per share up to EUR 2.29 per share, and is based on the weighted average number of shares outstanding.
This being the result of the strong performance across the segment and a higher remuneration in Belgium following the capital increase. In addition, with a reliability level of 99.900%-99%, we provide society with a robust power grid that is so important for social economic prosperity, so making us one of the most reliable grids in Europe, and this in very turbulent times.
Thank you, Catherine. Before we dig deeper into the group's financial results, let's talk a moment to discuss the context in which Elia Group has carried out its activities over the past few months. The first half of 2022 involved record-breaking energy prices and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Both at European and member state levels, policy changes have occurred to make the energy system more independent, resilient, and climate neutral. Chris, what has been the impact of this on Elia Group?
Well, let me give you two examples, Marleen. First of all, if you look at Germany, the German government issued in April the Easter Package. This was a number of legislative measures that were aimed at, of course, decreasing the dependence on Russian gas, but on top of that, of course, to as well accelerate the energy transition. If you look at the targets that I've put now, say they want to have 80% of renewable energy coverage by 2030, coming from 42% now, and they want to go to 100% coverage by 2035. Meanwhile, of course, they want as well an acceleration at the level of electrification, meaning more EVs, more heat pumps, more industrial electrification to come. If you look at the European level, one month later, Europe issued its REPowerEU report.
In that REPowerEU report, we as well see again an acceleration of the energy transition that is needed, in the context of the independence Europe wants to have from Russian gas.
Okay, what's the impact on Elia Group? More pressure?
Well, of course, there will be more pressure on us. As you know, we are used to have this kind of pressure. Our teams have worked over the last months on two dimensions. First of all, of course, we supported our governments as a trusted advisor on the short-term issues that we have at hand. Some of those short-term issues are, of course, how do we overcome the challenges of the upcoming winter? There our teams worked on market measures that we could do, like the Capacity Remuneration Mechanism that we have in Belgium, but also other short-term measures that we could take. Of course, we worked as well on what does it take to have those long-term, more structural measures implemented? What does it mean in terms of accelerating permits, etc. ? Our teams worked very hard, but I think that we delivered nice results on that.
A clear signal to accelerate the development of offshore wind was also given during the North Sea Summit in May, which was held in Denmark. Let's take a look at a short video clip from the European Commission.
Thank you very much, Mette. Thank you very much for convening this important meeting. Therefore, I'm very happy to be here today to witness the action you are taking here as four countries with the memorandum you have signed, which indeed is a very strong political commitment from your countries to making the North Sea Europe's green power plant.
The North Sea Summit brought together, as you just saw, the heads of state and energy ministers from Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, and Denmark. As we can see on the picture now, Chris, on the right, you took part in this remarkable event. How can Elia Group contribute to make the ambitions of this North Sea Summit a reality?
Well, Marleen, it was not only an interesting event, it actually was very symbolic. It was on the same day that Europe issued its REPowerEU document. That was quite interesting that we had both elements at the same time. Both were pleading for an acceleration. Of course, when you have acceleration, you need to adjust the grid. Not only to have more renewable energy coming from offshore wind that will be connected from the North Sea to the countries that we just discussed, but also to have more interconnectors. Because what we see is that there is a difference between the level of renewable energy that you can integrate in between the different markets, and therefore, more interconnectors will create a more integrated market that will ensure that every country will have access to sufficient renewables.
Second thing, of course, important is as well that we see that between the ambition level that Europe has set and the reality that we see on the ground in terms of permitting or in terms of incentives or investment stability that we see for the different participants to this, there is still a mismatch. For that, Elia Group has issued a white paper that discusses how we can actually tackle those problems. This document was presented at the WindEurope conference in Bilbao and is still under discussion today at European level between the different actors.
In recent years, Elia Group has built up a strong reputation for publishing reports and white papers on relevant societal topics concerning the energy sector. In November this year, we are due to publish yet another of these studies about the electrification of industry. Its title will be Powering Industry Towards Net Zero, and by way of a preview of this publication, Elia organized a partner event in April. That was dedicated to the decade of electrification. The decarbonization of society is bringing about drastic changes, especially in the industry. Chris, why did the group choose to focus on the electrification of the industry? Here you see some images of this partner event in April.
Well, of course, industry is very relevant in terms of making the transition happen. As we have seen as a consequence of, for instance, the Fit for 55, many companies started to work on their plans to accelerate their transition towards a net zero company. Of course, the events that we have seen lately with the impact on the energy markets, more specifically on the gas market, have as well shown for many companies that investing early pays off. Those companies that are most progressed in terms of the transition, meaning having heavily already electrified some of their processes, have access to PPAs, have access to renewable energy, were of course less touched by the high gas prices over the last period. Therefore, there's a big incentive these days for companies to work on that.
The contribution of Elia Group, of course, is that we want to make sure that can be in a smooth way and integrating them in a correct way into the electricity grid. Of course, the relationship between us and those companies will change because there will be more volatility, more variability on the grid that needs to be managed, and therefore we see them as partners to manage together the energy transition going forward.
The new Elia Group study on Powering Industry Towards Net Zero will be launched on Friday, eighteenth of November during a live streamed event. In recent months, as well as bringing representatives from industry together, we also organized our very first Elia Group Offshore Innovation Day in Ostend, and that brings us back to the sea. Chris, what added value can innovation bring to our offshore activities?
Well, actually today you see that there is a very positive dynamic into the offshore sector. Not only there is a high ambition to develop the sector, but as well we see that in terms of technology innovation, a lot is happening into the sector. There are many opportunities both for Elia, but also for other sector players to further improve the effectiveness and the efficiency of the activities that we have at sea. The commitment that we have as Elia Group by bringing together the whole sector is that we exchange with each other because of course, collaboration is beneficial for everybody. Many times we have to go in difficult circumstances out at sea, and doing this together with the right technology is of course something that will be helpful for every actor in the offshore sector.
We have innovation, collaboration, these are also the drivers of Elia Group's Open Innovation Challenge, our annual competition that is aimed at fostering collaboration with startups. The ultimate aim of this is to strengthen a culture of innovation across our company, and the central theme of this year's challenge was sustainability. In June, Sentris ense from Poland was chosen as this year's winner, and its winning product was a sensor that monitors the operational state of overhead lines using digital analysis. Catherine, as sustainability lies within your responsibilities, you were also the sponsor of this event. Were you happy with the winner?
Oh, yes, absolutely. We chose Sentris ense because its technology can be quickly deployed and it's easy to scale up. The constant monitoring of overhead lines and use of data analysis extends the lifespan. In fact, the Open Innovation Challenge is one of the many initiatives that Elia Group organized this year with our ActNow program in mind.
Talking about ActNow, we would like to invite you for another live streamed event on the fifth of October, during which we will provide an update about our sustainability objectives. It is important to mention now that we have decided to add two new sustainable development goals to our ActNow program. SDG 9 on industry, innovation and infrastructure, and SDG 14 on life below water. Catherine, what's the rationale behind this decision?
Well, the sustainable development goals of the United Nations act as a reference framework for us, helping to positively contribute to the global development goals. Since our industry is evolving so rapidly, we are constantly looking at how we can adapt our Act Now program to the new reality. Both innovation and resilient infrastructure are key for a robust energy future. Chris already explained how we would like to support the electrification of the industry, and therefore it seemed logical to add an SDG which was related to those topics to Act Now. We approach the life below water SDG to Act Now for the same reason. We want to explicitly take our impact and positive contributions to offshore developments into account.
Yeah. Can you give one concrete example of how our offshore activities can contribute positively to life below water?
Yes, sure. We are currently working on the development of an artificial energy island in the North Sea, approximately 45 km off the Belgian coast. As we design and construct the energy island, we will adopt various measures to minimize the impact of our activities on the marine ecosystem. In fact, we will go further than just mitigating any negative effect. We have adopted an approach called Nature Inclusive Design. Along with a group of experts, we are working on a smart design for this island, which will have positive effect on the local environment. As you mentioned, Marleen, more details will be shared during our sustainability event in October.
Yeah. Now, our sustainable approach to the island's design is clear. Chris, what is the relevance of the island in the light of the energy transition?
Well, yeah. The energy island is very relevant if you look at the further evolution of the energy transition. It will be the first artificial energy hub in the North Sea. Actually, it will be the first artificial energy hub so far in the world. What it will do is not only to bring to shore 3.5 GW additional offshore wind that is in the Princess Elizabeth Zone. On top of that, it will have two HVDC interconnectors coming to the island and then come from there to the Belgian shore. We will have the Nautilus Interconnector and the Triton Interconnector that will arrive on the island, and therefore not only bring renewables from the Princess Elizabeth Zone, but also create the opportunity to trade renewable energy with Denmark and with the U.K.
Over time, probably we can add additional interconnectors to this hub. This is therefore a key project for the further development of the North Sea, as we see that these kind of projects will be needed to further in an efficient way develop the North Sea. By 2024, we will start the construction of this island. It will have to be delivered by mid-year of 2026 in terms of the physical island. That will be built based on a caisson structure in which we then inject sand, and on top of that becomes a good, stable environment where we can build the AC fields that we have, with also the DC connection that we will have on this island.
Yeah. I also see a small port and a helicopter deck. The island is still under development, but let's have a look at some key projects currently under construction. We have a lot of projects under construction. What are the most important ones to mention, Chris?
Well, if you look at Belgium, I would like to mention the Mercator-Bruegel project. That is already part of the backbone today. We are more or less doubling the capacity on this line, which is from close to Antwerp to close to Brussels in Dilbeek. That will land. We will double the capacity of transition. By reinforcing the backbone in Belgium, we create a robust grid that is also resilient and then can accept this further development of renewable energy and interconnection with other countries. If you look at Germany, the Ostwind 2 project is well underway. In the Ostwind two project in June, we installed the top side of the Arcadis Ost platform, which is the first platform that we have in this Ostwind 2 project. It has overall two platforms.
The other one is the Baltic Eagle platform. It's still under construction today in Hoboken, and it will sail out probably after summer, and then we will install it as well. Maybe very recently we also installed already meanwhile the cable that is connecting the Baltic.
The Arcadis Ost
Sorry, the Arcadis Ost.
Yeah
Platform to shore. We're ready to electrify at the moment that the wind turbines will be installed in that region.
About the Arcadis Ost wind project in mid-April, Elia Group organized a press trip to the construction site of the platform. At that point, it was still under construction at a shipyard in Denmark. The press trip was attended by the Belgian Deputy Prime Minister Pierre-Yves Dermagne.
Offshore wind energy for the coastal states on the East and North Sea is a central building block to also become more independent from fossil energy imports, and the last months have shown how important that is. I think the projects that 50Hertz has already realized show that we are excellently positioned for offshore wind energy. Last but not least, I want to mention Combined Grid Solution, which we have realized together with our colleagues from Energinet. We have the competence, we have the expertise, and we look forward to further projects.
To end our section on the highlights, one last topic remains. The Belgian regulator just approved a new tariff methodology for Belgium that will start in 2024 and will run until 2027. Catherine, we can see that the Belgian regulator, CREG, has opted for stability. Can you walk us a bit through the key parameters?
Yeah, for sure. Like you were saying, Marleen, it remains broadly in line with the current methodology. First, it will remain a cost plus model with coverage of all reasonable costs, including a fair remuneration and incentives. Second, there is no risk on volume, and also the embedded debt principle remains applicable, meaning that all cost of debt is fully covered by the tariff. The rising interest rates we are observing have no direct impact on the profitability of ETB . Finally, in terms of funding of the company, the regulatory scheme also remains unchanged, meaning well-funded activities with 40% equity and 60% debt. What is precisely changing?
Well, first, in terms of remuneration, we will have, in the first phase from 2024, an equity remuneration that is set at 4.1% compared to the 4.68% today. This means that 40% of the RAB will be remunerated at 4.1%. Then, similar to MOG 1, we will receive a risk premium for MOG 2. For both projects, this premium leads to an aggregated net contribution of 20 basis points. Also, two additional incentives have been defined by the regulator, and its total contribution is estimated at around 1.4% compared to the 1.3% today, as long, of course, as ETB succeeds in reaching reasonable targets of around 65%-70% for its incentives. This leads to an average net return on equity for the next regulatory period of around 5.7% that we see as being only a minor reduction compared to the current period.
Please provide us with some few key figures. You have much more, of course, so let's have a look at the group's now.
Yes. Thank you, Marleen. We posted solid results across all the segments over the first six months of the years. First, Elia Group's revenues amount to EUR 1.9 billion, an increase of 48.8%, mainly driven by the increase in revenues in both Belgium and Germany. In Belgium, our revenue was impacted by higher regulated net profit, higher depreciations linked to the growing asset base, one-off tariff compensation for the financial cost linked to the capital increase, and higher cost for ancillary services. The higher ancillary services resulted from the high gas prices caused by the war in Ukraine and the increase of imbalanced volume caused by the increase of the renewable share. In Germany, revenues increased, mainly driven by the higher energy revenue due to the continuing rise in energy prices.
EBIT increased compared to the previous period, totaling EUR 296.3 million. This increase is driven by the following elements. For Belgium, it was the result of a higher regulated profit, higher depreciations linked, like we said, to the growing asset base, and higher financial costs linked to the capital increase, all passed through into revenue in conformity with the Belgian regulatory framework. In Germany, the higher EBIT was mainly a result of higher investment remuneration and lower operational expenditures, as prior year costs were marked by a peak in the maintenance cycle. Also, associates contributed quite strongly to the group's EBIT, up to EUR 24.5 million, mainly driven by Nemo Link interconnector.
The Elia Group adjusted net profit increased by 24.1%, reaching EUR 186.7 million, with Germany contributing for a little bit less than 50%, ETB a little bit below 40%, and Nemo Link had a very strong start with a 12% contribution to the net result. Let us now turn to the net debt of Elia Group. At the end of June, we carried a net debt of around EUR 3.5 billion, a decrease of more than 28% compared to the end of last year. This decrease was mainly driven by two elements.
First, the capital increase that took place at the end of June, mentioned earlier, with net proceeds amounting to around EUR 583 million. Second, the strong decrease in net debt at 50Hertz, which is fully attributable to the high EEG cash flow, which resulted from the very high energy market prices. As I mentioned at the start of the presentation, Elia Group invested EUR 623.6 million over the first half of the year. These investments were mainly financed by the cash flow from our operating activities. As no new debt has been contracted by Elia Group, the average cost of debt remained flat at 1.7%, and the credit rating by S&P remained unchanged, with a BBB+ rating and a stable outlook.
Yeah. You mentioned, solid results across all the three segments. Can you highlight what have been the key drivers for Belgium, for instance?
Sure, Marleen. ETB posted strong results over the first half of the year, in line with the guidance. I explained earlier why the revenues increased, so let us move straight to the adjusted net profit of EUR 74.2 million, up by almost 20% year-over-year. The key drivers were the following. First, we have a higher fair remuneration, up by EUR 6 million, driven by both the asset growth and a higher equity following Elia Group's capital increase. Also, the contribution from incentives increased by EUR 0.5 million, is linked to a better performance of the timely commissioning and interconnection capacity incentives. Furthermore, the result indirectly benefited from the one-off tariff compensation for the financial cost linked to the capital increase, up by EUR 3.4 million.
These are accounted through equity under IFRS, but as you may know, these costs are fully passed through to the tariffs under the amended principle in Belgian GAAP. Finally, the result also benefited from regulatory settlement and reversal of provision for the incentivable incentive following the SALDI 2021 review, up by EUR 2.2 million, while the capitalized borrowing cost increased due to a higher level of assets under construction.
Yeah. We have mentioned the capital increase a few times now. It drives on one hand the results of ETB but it is also strengthening the financial position of ETB. Catherine, can you comment on this?
Yes. ETB indeed strengthened its balance sheet with around EUR 287 million of equity, representing the net proceeds of the capital increase allocated to the Belgian regulated activities in view of financing or organic growth. Together with the profit reservation, these are the biggest drivers for the strong increase in equity. The company's liquidity position remains robust, and both the sustainable RCF and commercial paper are fully undrawn at the end of June. ETB's credit rating by S&P remains unchanged, with a BBB+ and a stable outlook. Finally, ETB has a well-balanced debt maturity profile. It has a weighted debt duration of 5.9 years and no upcoming near-term material maturities. The average cost of debt of the remaining debt is unchanged at 1.9%, as no new debt was contracted in the first half of the year.
Yeah. Let's go to Germany. Germany contributes approximately 50% of the group's results. What are the key drivers there, Catherine?
Yes, indeed, Marleen. The adjusted net profit in Germany increased by more than 23% to EUR 98.7 million as a result of, first, higher investment remuneration following the growth of the asset base, up by more than EUR 19.6 million. Second, higher financial results, up by EUR 10 million, driven by the revaluation of provision for congestion income from interconnectors to be returned to grid customers based on an upward revision of the interest forward curve. We had lower onshore OPEX and other costs. We had also other costs up by EUR 1.7 million, mainly following the ramp down from last year's peak of the maintenance cycle and lower digitalization costs, partly offset by the growing workforce driven by the expanding business.
These effects were partly offset by the higher depreciation driven by the commissioning of projects. Let's now look at the financial position of 50Hertz. The total equity increased by EUR 202 million to around EUR 2.1 billion. This increase is primarily driven by the higher hedge reserve for future contracts, up by EUR 190 million, which was due to the further increase in energy prices in the first half of the year and resulted in an increase of the fair value of this contract. Note that the EUR 200 million, the portion of the proceeds of the capital increase of Elia Group allocated to Eurogrid GmbH will take place in the third quarter of 2022, when the statutory capital increase will be effective and therefore is not yet reflected in the equity.
In parallel, our partner, KfW, intends to increase its equity participation on a pro rata basis by contributing EUR 50 million of equity, leading to a total equity injection of EUR 250 million. The liquidity position of 50Hertz remains strong at EUR 4.4 billion, with all revolving and overdraft facilities fully undrawn. Important to note is that out of the EUR 3.5 billion cash position, EUR 3.1 billion is linked to the EG cash position and has to be given back to the consumers. 50Hertz didn't tap into the debt market neither, and given all outstanding debt has a fixed coupon, the average cost of debt remains at 4.14% at the end of 2022. The maturity profile remains balanced with a weighted debt duration of 6.9 years. There has been no change to the rating of Eurogrid, which remains BBB+ with a stable outlook.
Besides the regulated activities in Belgium and Germany that we just discussed, Elia Group also operates Nemo Link and is developing various non-regulated activities. Catherine, how did this third segment contribute to the results?
The third segment performed quite well, Marleen. It adjusted net profit came in at EUR 13.9 million. The key drivers were as follows. First, the contribution from Nemo Link rose by EUR 7.3 million, leading to a total net contribution of EUR 22.8 million. This contribution was the result of a very strong performance reflected by operationally high availability, 100% availability of the interconnector, but also important market spreads characterized by many flow reversal between Belgium and the U.K. Note that, if Nemo Link continues to keep up this very high availability and spreads continue on the same trend, we believe we'll reach the cap in the third quarter this year. This would therefore result in a total net contribution to the group for the entire year of around EUR 30 million-EUR 35 million.
Also, EGI contributed positively to the result due to the recovery of the international consulting business and tight cost control measures. Thirdly, we had higher holding costs driven by ongoing business development activities and the setup of WindGrid in the beginning of the year. Finally, we had a lower contribution from re.alto due to further business developments and higher other non-regulated costs.
Okay. To end today's presentation, let's have a look at the outlook. What can we expect from the next six months, Catherine?
Well, we reiterate our outlook, and we are guiding for return on equity towards the lower end of the 6.25%-7.25% range. This return depends, like you know, on the return on equity of our three segments. In Belgium, we remain confident about being able to achieve a return on equity of between 5%-6% while investing around EUR 425 million. In Germany, we aim to achieve a return on equity of between 8%-10%. Due to the good progress that Chris mentioned of the Ostwind 2 and SuedOstLink, we expect to invest roughly EUR 1 billion instead of the EUR 850 million announced during the first quarter. For the third segment, we expect it to make a contribution of between EUR 10 million-EUR 15 million to the group's result.
This, of course, will depend on the performance of Nemo Link, given its contribution to this segment, but also on the costs linked to the business development activities. As always, I would like to point out that this guidance doesn't take into account any potential M&A transaction.
Okay. Thank you very much, Catherine. Ladies and gentlemen, we have shared a lot of information with you. I suggest we now move on to the Q&A section. Yannick Dekoninck, our Investor Relations Manager, will guide us through this. Yannick, could you share the first question with us, please?
Thank you, Marleen. I'm very happy to welcome our analyst of KBC, Kepler Cheuvreux, and Degroof Petercam. I would propose to start straight away with Olivier Van dewoud e from KBC. Please, Olivier, give us your questions.
Yes. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions. My first question would be around Belgian CapEx, more specifically around the project Nautilus and Boucle du Hainaut. There are some political discussions going on, and I want to ask your opinion about what would happen in a scenario that the cables would be underground instead of overground over the air, as you have now. What would be the impact on Elia's, like, global CapEx plan in Belgium? Not only the project, maybe other projects would be impacted by such a decision. Would be my first question.
Chris?
Okay. In case it would become an underground scenario, as you know, important to mention here is that the underground scenario would not fulfill the objectives of the plan that was defined by the former federal government. We continue to plead for a overhead line solution, because that's the only solution that will give a robust grid. That's quite important to mention that Elia will continue to plead for a n overhead line. Obviously, it is a decision of the government where they in the end want to be. In case they would decide to go to an underground, actually would mean that we will have to rework the federal development plan. That will take some time in terms of restudying the way how that would be done.
As you've seen, we've made in the light of the discussion around Ventilus and Boucle du Hainaut, you know, we've made a calculation of the additional CapEx that would give. That would be an order of magnitude of around EUR 5 billion additional CapEx that would need to be delivered, but of course, with an important time delay. We at that moment of time would see that there would be a delay of this project of at least an additional five years compared to the current schedule that we have. Current schedule that we still continue to try to hold on given the discussions that the government had in terms of what dates are they going to take a decision.
If the Flemish Government would take a decision back in September and still then develop a scoping note and a trajectory definition by the end of the year, we would still be in time of the CapEx plan as you see it today. In case they would decide for undergrounding, we would first of all have to rework the CapEx plans fully. We estimated this to EUR 5 billion with a five-year delay that would come in, but of course, obviously it would as well have an impact on the island, the artificial island that we plan to build on the sea.
That's a quite important project that we have, and that will probably then shift together with the rest of the program because you cannot connect to wind farms without the presence of the Ventilus and Boucle du Hainaut project. Therefore, there would be no reason to have the timeline that we have today for the island. So that one would as well be postponed in time. For the rest of the grid reinforcement, we continue, of course, the plan that we have because in any scenario those grid reinforcements will be needed, and so there will not be a drastic impact on the rest of the program that we will continue to execute.
In that case, there might be, of course, that we will use then the benefit of that situation to bring a couple of those projects forward, as we will have less, let's say, needs of outages to plan the Ventilus and the Boucle du Hainaut program. We would probably use those possibilities of outages to replan a number of other projects that we can put forward a little bit. I think overall, the impact will be higher CapEx but delayed in time.
Okay. Very clear. Thank you. My second question would be about the EEG. I read that the German government had decided to make some changes on who pays and maybe when it pays. I ask myself, what would be the impact in practice on the EEG balance of 50Hertz? Would it become, for example, less volatile or how should I see it?
No, I don't think so, that volatility will increase based on this measure. What will be the impact? It will be an impact on, let's say, the speed by which the cash excess that we have today linked to the EEG will be given back to the consumers. To put it differently, today, we recover the cost of the EEG through two mechanisms. First mechanism is a kind of surcharge on the electricity tariff, and the second mechanism is a tax on CO₂, which has been raised by the governments last year, and which is given back to the TSOs in order to cover the cost of the EEG mechanism. What the government decided to do is to, let's say, skip one of the two mechanisms.
The surcharge is currently put to zero, and we will keep the recovery of the EEG mechanism through the CO₂ tax. Basically, we have today an excess cash linked to the EEG of around EUR 3.1 billion. The speed by which we will give it back or the amount of the excess will reduce, let's say, faster than in case the government would not have taken any measure. Anyhow, this cash is not core cash of the company. We always comment, and you know that on the fact that it has to be considered as cash to be given back to the consumers for your valuation.
Thank you. My third and last question for now is about the leverage in Germany. Currently, you can put additional leverage on, as to the holding Eurogrid. Would there be any risk going forward that the German regulator like forbids you to do this so that you will lose that advantage, or is that not coming up?
Well, it's not something that was discussed in the context of the definition of the parameters for the regulatory framework of the next period, so that's something that we do in the current period. In the next period, starting as from 2024 and lasting for five years, we know that, let's say, the parameters of the regulatory framework have been set. Some elements have still to be defined, like the efficiency factors. But the parameter linked to the efficiency or the leverage we can benefit from the financing policies we applied at 50Hertz has not been questioned for this next regulatory period.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you, Olivier, for those interesting questions. I propose now to give the floor to Vivien Maquet from Degroof Petercam. Vivien, do you have any questions?
Yes. Can you hear me?
Yes.
Yes.
Perfect. Thank you very much for the presentation. First, two questions on my side. Firstly, on Nemo Link. So I understand from your comment that you might reach the cap in Q3, leading to a potential contribution for the full year, about EUR 30 million-EUR 35 million. Just wonder if you can give us some comments on next year, because I understand, of course, the cap is based on a rolling three years. Wonder if you reach a cap this year, how can it affect next year? Is it the risk you will reach the cap more rapidly next year then, or can you give any comment on that front? Thanks.
The regulatory framework of Nemo Link is based on a five-year period rolling cap. We will, let's say, end the five-year period next year in 2023. It started in 2019. The cap that we believe to reach at, let's say, the beginning of Q3 is the yearly cap for 2022. For year 2023, we have already sold approximately three quarters or 75% of the capacity of Nemo Link based on long-term auction. We expect the, let's say, result of Nemo Link, the net profit, the contribution of Nemo Link to the third segment to be indeed quite high in 2023, depending, of course, on the availability of the cable. Like you know, there are always two element to consider. One is price, and second is volume. Of course, the volume will depend on the availability of the cable.
Okay, thanks. My second question will be, can you remind us on the calendar for the next item to be discussed for the regulatory period in Germany for the next one?
If I understand your question correctly, first, what is still to be discussed with the regulator is the base year. What is the reference or what will be the reference for the cost. Second, the efficiency factors, both the individual efficiency factor and the general productivity or efficiency factor. Those are the three elements that will be discussed with the regulator. For the base year, all the information has been sent to the regulator, and we expect discussion to really start at the beginning of next year. Then we expect discussion on the productivity factors. Basically, 2023 will be the year where we'll have more or final visibility on what we can expect in terms of base year and productivity factors in Germany.
Okay, thank you. That's all from my side.
Thank you, Vivien. I will propose to proceed to Juan from Kepler Cheuvreux.
Hi. Thank you. Thank you, and good morning. Thank you for taking the questions. I have two in review on my side. I want to double-check with you, especially on the guidance front. If we adjust to the capital increase, the new updated guidance that you're seeing on the lower range of the 6.25%-7.25% ratio, return on equity, sorry, that will imply something north of EUR 300 million of net income attributable to shareholders, right?
In the magnitude, yes.
Okay. Perfect. Thank you. Second is I want to understand better on the H2 one-offs because we saw some in Belgium, some in Germany. Are there any that we can be extrapolated from H1? Are there any additional ones that what we could expect on H2?
Yeah. For Belgium, we expect, let's say, the results to be a little bit more front-loaded precisely to the one-off that we had. We don't expect to have one-offs in the same magnitude in the second semester of the year. For Germany, one of the element contributing to the one-offs is always linked to, let's say, regulatory decisions. The timing of those regulatory decisions is not easy to predict or to anticipate. Very difficult to answer your question for Germany, whether we can expect, let's say a little bit more of one-offs at the end of the period than what we saw in the beginning of the period. Like I said, it will depend on a number of factors, the timing being not under our control.
Okay, understood. Thank you. That will be all from my side.
Thank you.
Thank you. Maybe just for completeness, we also had Quirijn Mulder from ING, but unfortunately he could not dial in, but he shared his questions. The questions he had, but I think those have been tackled already, was also about the performance that we had in the Q1 or the half year results compared to the full year guidance, and the questions on the one-off. Secondly, also the question on the performance of Nemo Link, but I think that was also clearly tackled in the presentation and answered as part of the question of Vivien. I don't think that we need to go much deeper on those questions like this.
Okay.
Okay.
Any pending questions from any of the analysts following the questions raised by Olivier, Juan or Vivien?
Maybe I have one more question, Yannick . It's linked to inflation. With inflation on projects that you execute, your investments will become more expensive. Do you take that into account for your investment guidance this year, or when will we start to see the impact from that inflation in your investment and eventually the RAB?
For 2022, we don't expect the CapEx to be much impacted by the inflation. The reason is that most of the contracts signed to deliver the CapEx in 2022, we already signed by the end of last year, so in 2021, at prices including some inflation, but the 2021 inflation and not really the 2022 inflation. Neither in Belgium nor in Germany we expect to have a, let's say, high impact of inflation on the 2022 CapEx program. The reason why we increased the guidance in Germany is really linked to the fact that we have anticipated some milestones on especially two projects. That's really the reason why there is an upward revision of the guidance.
Okay, thanks.
Thank you. I think if there are no further questions, Marleen, I think we can close the analyst call.
Indeed.
Thank everybody for its participation.
Indeed. Thank you, Yannick. We suggest to bring this presentation to a close, and luckily, nobody fainted today in the studio during our presentation. Thank you, Yannick. Thank you, Chris and Catherine for your contribution. A recording of the presentation, the slides and the script will be made available online later today. Thank you for joining us, and enjoy the summer.