Good morning. Thank you for joining us as we present Elia Group's full year figures and have a look at what 2026 will bring for the group. I'm joined today with our CEO, Bernard Gustin and Marco Nix.
Morning.
Good morning, both. Before we start, please take a moment to review the on-screen disclaimer. It contains some important information you should take note of. As always, the slides will be, and the script will be published on our live stream afterwards. Bernard, I'll let you kick off.
Thank you, Stephanie. I want to start by saying how proud I am of what we've achieved this year. Three achievements stand out. First, we secured financing for significant growth and re-established market trust. When I took on this role, there were questions about our capacity to fund ambitious growth and deliver on our promises. Addressing this was my main focus, and I'm pleased to say that we are back on track. Second, we delivered operationally investing EUR 5.2 billion in CapEx this year, more than triple our historical annual average. Third, we are attracting exceptional talent. Despite challenges, people want to join us because they see Elia Group as a place to make a real difference and help build the energy infrastructure of the future. That tells me we have the right people and the right vision.
Thank you, Bernard. Before Marco takes us through the financials, let's have a look together at the major highlights that defined the year.
Well, 2025 was indeed a year marked by major milestones, collective achievements, and moments that shaped who we are and where we are heading. When it comes to project execution, 2025 was a year of real tangible progress. In Belgium, we continued to advance on several strategic infrastructure projects that form the backbone of the country's future electricity system. Ventilus and the Boucle du Hainaut, both critical missing links in connecting large volumes of offshore wind and reinforcing Belgium's north-south transmission corridor progressed through key regulatory and construction milestones. These projects are essential for integrating the Princess Elisabeth Zone, strengthening system reliability, and ensuring Belgium can transport renewable energy efficiently across the country. Brabo III also entered its final stretch, further reinforcing the Antwerp region and enhancing cross-border capacity with the Netherlands. The construction of the Princess Elisabeth Island also continued to advance steadily.
The installation of the concrete caisson made solid progress with 11 of the 23 caisson already installed at the sea. The remaining units are ready for deployment as soon as weather condition allow it. This bring Belgium another step closer to achieving its decarbonization targets. In Germany, we also saw real progress. On SuedOstLink+, one of the country's most important north-south transmission corridors, with permitting moving ahead and technical preparation advancing, the project is now getting much closer to implementation. At the same time, offshore progress stayed on track. We successfully completed the cable laying for Ostwind 3, the link for the next wave of wind projects at the German Baltic Sea, securing future capacity to integrate more renewable energy.
On Bornholm Energy Island, Germany and Denmark signed a landmark agreement for 3 gigawatts of offshore wind connected through new hybrid grid links to both countries. It's a major step forward toward future cross-border offshore grids in the Baltic Sea and support Germany's vision for a more meshed and resilient offshore system. We also put two new high-voltage lines into service, each over 100 kilometers, boosting our transmission capacity and strengthening stability across key parts of the German grid. Overall, it was a year of strong delivery with our teams moving forward the strategic projects, but at the same time, congestion is becoming more visible. As more renewables connect to the system, and that's a good thing, our consumption patterns also evolve, and that is putting pressure on our grid. This isn't just a Belgian or a German challenge, it's a European one.
Our recent study on storage shows just how quickly the landscape is changing. Storage, and batteries in particular, will be a cornerstone of the future system. Equally important is the question, how, where, and when storage operates. Today, the current wave of connection requests isn't always a healthy growth. We are seeing a huge number of speculative projects across Europe. In Germany alone, TSOs are facing requests equivalent to the load of 100 million households. That's not sustainable. It strains the grid, docks the queue, and delays more mature investments that society actually needs. This is why we advocate for a new approach. We need to prioritize system-relevant, mature projects and move away from a first come, first served logic that is now being exploited and risks driving up costs for all consumers. This is where the EU grid package helps set the direction.
It supports anticipatory investment and clearer rules so that flexibility, renewables, and storage can work together as aligned pillars of a sustainable, affordable, and secure system.
Another key factor for our long-term investment needs is the right regulatory frameworks. Based on what we know so far about the German regulation, we welcome Bundesnetzagentur's ambition and its recognition that the full package matters for investors. However, the draft framework still does not provide the balanced and internationally competitive returns needed to attract the level of capital required for the grid expansion. Key adjustments are still necessary, particularly on Return on Equity level, debt cost coverage, OpEx predictability, and effectiveness of the incentive schemes to ensure the framework truly supports the unprecedented investment effort ahead. We remain committed to constructive dialogue to help shape the final determination that safeguards investments capability and supports Germany's long-term energy goals.
To speak about 50Hertz goals, we will now share a short video from the CEO of 50Hertz, Stefan Kapferer, on the progress made and the milestones still ahead of us.
With a new focus on resilience of the energy infrastructure and affordability of energy transition, it became clear in 2025 that an overarching responsibility for the electricity system is urgently needed. This can only be delivered by companies like Elia Group with two national TSOs, ETB in Belgium and 50Hertz in Germany. In 2026, 50Hertz will once again invest a record high amount of money in additional grid infrastructure, substations, and new connections for consumers, EUR 5.1 billion. Affordability of the energy transition will be key. We have to harvest efficiency potential, and we have to take care that only those projects are included in the next grid expansion development plan, which are really needed to make the energy transition happen.
To finance these challenges, the current review of the regulatory framework in Germany has to deliver an internationally competitive return on equity to guarantee that the engagement of the investors will be the same also in the upcoming years.
2026 will be a year in which significant regulatory developments and grid planning milestones emerge in both our countries, giving us much more clarity on the investment landscape and its associated returns. To build on that, I'd like to turn to the CEO of Elia Transmission Belgium, Frédéric Dunon . He will walk us through the challenges and opportunities shaping our next steps.
Discussions will begin on our regulatory framework for the period 28, 31. Two major objectives are at stake. First, to ensure that market parties have the right incentives to allow safe and efficient system development and operation. Second, to ensure that Elia has the financial and human means to realize the plans approved by the authorities. The design of our 27, 37 federal development plan will be at the center of attention of our authorities. Indeed, it will define the boundaries of possible futures in terms of energy, industrial, and economical policies. Whereas development plans were seen in the past as an administrative process, it is now well understood that they are the foundation of our Belgian society for the coming decades.
Now that we've looked at Belgium and Germany, let's shift to what's happening internationally. As you know, we took a minority investment in energyRe Giga at the end of 2023 with a clear understanding that this is a long development cycle model and that progress would not be linear. Since then, the U.S. environment has evolved. At federal level, the current administration has created uncertainty for offshore wind with slower permitting and approvals, while at the same time many states continue to actively push for grid expansion. In parallel, the U.S. power system is facing rapidly rising electricity demand, driven by electrification and data centers, which reinforces the structural need for additional transmission capacity. Last year, we also saw the acceleration of the phase out of the wind and solar tax credits.
This puts pressure on the developers to bring the projects forward and required adjustments in project structures and portfolios across the sector. Against this backdrop, we have taken a disciplined approach, prioritizing value protection over speed. As a result, contributions from energyRe Giga to the group results will come later than initially expected, but we remain supportive of the investment and of its long-term strategic rationale. As we already flagged at our Q3 results, Clean Path New York faced a setback. The picture is more positive. Permitting is close to completion and land acquisition is largely secured. Finally, the offshore project, Leading Light Wind, is, as you know, currently on hold under the present federal administration. Translated in financials, this means the group recognizes an impairment on its U.S. assets of $99.1 million. This consists of two elements.
On the one hand, a EUR 70.8 million write-off on the energyRe Giga portfolio. An additional provision of EUR 28.3 million, reflecting the group's remaining commitment to invest $150 million US dollars to reach its 35.1% ownership stake. Let me do remind you that this impairment is a non-cash and reflects a prudent reassessment of, on the one hand, value and timing. It's not at all a change in our discipline or our financial strength. Our exposure remains well controlled. Our commitments are fully manageable within our balance sheet. We retain flexibility on the pace of future capital deployment.
Thank you, Stephanie. Let me now elaborate on some of the headline figures for 2025. We delivered strong progress across all fronts in 2025. Our five-year CapEx plan remains fairly on track. We invested EUR 5.2 billion, EUR 1.4 billion in Belgium, and EUR 3.8 billion in Germany. As a result, our regulatory asset base expanded to EUR 22.6 billion. Our hiring drive in 2025 was also a success. We welcomed again more than 760 new employees, strengthening our operational capabilities and supporting the growth objectives we laid out during the Capital Markets Day. On the operational side, system performance remained outstanding. Grid reliability reached 99.9% in Belgium and 99.8% in Germany, positioning our TSOs among the most reliable grid operators in Europe.
These figures highlight our continued focus on operational excellence and the effectiveness of our investments in technology, infrastructure, and talent. In terms of financial results, the group delivered a strong performance with net profit attributable to Elia Group shareholders of EUR 556.6 million. This corresponds to an adjusted return on equity of 7.3% and earnings per share of EUR 5.51 per share. As shown on the slide, we indeed had a busy year on funding as well. We proactively secured the funding needed to support our strategic priorities in Belgium and Germany. We executed a very diversified financing program across entities and instruments, reflecting the greater flexibility we have embedded into our funding strategy. A key focus early in the year was strengthening the balance sheet.
We completed a EUR 2.2 billion equity package, which reinforced our capital base, broadened our strategic partnerships, and provided significant financial flexibility. On the debt side, we raised EUR 3.6 billion in green financing through loans and bonds, and both Elia and Eurogrid issued their first EU-labeled green bonds, an important milestone that broadened again our investor base and reinforced the central role of sustainable finance within our capital structure. At the start of the year, Standard & Poor's reaffirmed the credit ratings of all entities. We also strengthened liquidity, bringing the total available funds at year-end at EUR 11.9 billion, which underpins our prudent risk profile and supports our investment-grade ratings. Overall, the group's investment plan is backed by a robust financial framework designed to maintain its current ratings, ensuring continued strong access to capital markets and providing funding flexibility.
Finally, the group is progressing on the various options of the funding toolkit as outlined to the market. Elia Group delivered strong operational and financial results, reflected in a sharp increase in adjusted net profit. This figures excludes material one-offs and reflects the group's underlying performance. Adjusted net profit rose by 39.8% to EUR 716.5 million, driven by CapEx execution, higher equity remuneration, and solid operations. Additionally, the third segment benefited from the first time of a tax benefit linked to the application of tax consolidation in Belgium. Germany remained the largest contributor, delivering just over 60% of the group adjusted result. Belgium added around 38%, while non-regulated activities and Nemo Link contributed EUR 5 million, including EUR 33.4 million in one-off adjustments, the reported net profit reached EUR 683 million.
After non-controlling interest and hybrid costs, net profit attributable to Elia Group shareholders increased by 32% to EUR 556.6 million. On the slide, we show that the reported figures include several non-recurring items, both in Germany and in the non-regulated activities. We adjust for those to show the underlying performance. Starting with Germany, the reported net profit includes a EUR 46.5 million deferred tax impact. This relates to the revaluation of deferred taxes following the planned reduction in the German federal corporate tax rate from 15% down to 10% between the years 2028-2032. Turning to the third segment, there are two main adjusted items. As said by Stephanie, the U.S. impairment amounting to EUR 99.1 million negatively.
On the positive side, the tax consolidation had a positive impact due to the application of the Belgium tax consolidation mechanism and linked to the tax periods prior to 25. It is there of a one-off effect, not reflected of a recurring tax benefit. After adjusting for all these items, adjusted net profit amounts to EUR 716.5 million at group level.
The RAB remains the core driver of the group's regulated remuneration. Supported by the execution of our investment program, Elia Group's RAB increased by 22.5% year-over-year, reaching EUR 22.6 billion at the end of 2025, up from EUR 18.5 billion in 2024. This increase reflects the acceleration of major infrastructure projects in both Belgium and Germany that are critical to integrating growing volumes of renewable generation, reinforcing cross-border capacity, and strengthening the overall system resilience. These investments ensure we can deliver the energy transition at the lowest societal cost, while contributing to Europe's long-term energy autonomy. When we look ahead, we expect an average annual RAB growth of over 20% for the period 2024-2028, supported by around EUR 21.6 billion of cumulative CapEx over the next three years.
As we have invested EUR 5.2 billion across our Belgian and German grids, the impact on our funding metrics remains well under control. Net financial debt increased by EUR 1 billion, bringing the total to EUR 14.1 billion. This limited increase reflects the successful capital increase and the fact that a large share of our investments was funded through operating cash flows. Our average cost of debt rose slightly to 2.9%. The portfolio remains very well-protected from interest rate volatility with 98% of our debt held at fixed rates. Finally, our credit profile remains solid. Standard & Poor's reaffirmed our BBB rating with a stable outlook, underscoring the resilience of our financial structure and the strength of our funding strategy.
As this concludes the group overview, let me guide you through into the segments, starting with Belgium. In 2025, adjusted net profit rose by 27% to EUR 272 million. This was mainly driven by a EUR 30 million increase in fair remuneration, reflecting continued RAB growth, a higher equity, and improved risk-free rate to 3.2%. Incentives were up slightly by EUR 1.1 million. Beyond the regulatory result, the outcomes was also influenced by IFRS restatements. These were mainly driven by higher capitalized borrowing costs from the larger portfolio of assets under construction, as well as tariff compensation for the cost linked to the capital increase. This compensation is recorded as equity under IFRS, but these costs are fully passed through to the tariffs under the embedded debt principle.
In total, the Belgium segment delivered a Return on Equity of 6.2% for the year. For Germany, the adjusted net profit rose to EUR 439 million, up 42%. This strong performance is the result of several key factors. First, asset growth continues to be the biggest driver of the result, combined with imputed depreciation and costs of debt coverage. This was further supported by a slight increase in the allowed equity remuneration on new investments, reaching 5.7% for the year. On the cost side, the onshore OpEx outperformance declined slightly by EUR 3 million. The inflation index base year revenues helped to offset most of the operational cost increases associated with our expanding activity footprint. At the same time, a number of offsetting effects also occurred.
Depreciation increased as several major projects were successfully commissioned and brought online. Financial costs rose due to the higher interest expenses from debt financing. This was balanced by capitalized interest during construction, which increased, and interest income from a pre-financing agreement. After including a one-off deferred tax revaluation gain of EUR 46.5 million, net profit reached EUR 485 million. Considering the adjusted net profit, 50Hertz achieved a total return on equity of 11.1% for the year. Finally, the non-regulated activities, a Nemo Link segment, delivered an adjusted net profit of EUR 5.3 million in 2025. This performance was mainly driven by the application of group contributions for the 2025 financial year, which contributed EUR 24.7 million to the result. This reflects the Belgian tax consolidation mechanism that allows to utilize a tax loss at a group level and Eurogrid International.
The positive impact followed a legislative change adopted at the end, which removed the discriminatory treatment previously applicable when combining the group contribution regime with the dividend received deduction regime. This positive effect was partly offset by several factors, mainly higher holding company costs, a lower contribution of our consultancy business, EGI. Finally, Nemo Link contributed slightly less to the result. After taking into account net adjusted items, the net loss amounts to minus EUR 74.5 million.
Before we move to the final part of the presentation, our financial guidance for 2026, I'd like to briefly touch on the group's dividend policy. Elia Group proposes a dividend of EUR 2.05 per share. This dividend proposal will be submitted for approval at the annual general meeting and is expected to be paid in June 2026.
Ending with the outlook for 2026, Elia Group expects a net profit at Elia Group share in the range between EUR 690 million and EUR 740 million. In Belgium, we plan to invest around EUR 1.7 billion, delivering an adjusted net profit between EUR 290 million and EUR 320 million. In Germany, we plan to invest around EUR 5.1 billion and an adjusted net result in the range of EUR 585 million and EUR 625 million. The non-regulated and Nemo Link segment is expected to report an adjusted loss of minus EUR 10 million - EUR 30 million.
Well, thank you, Stephanie. Thank you, Marco. Before we move into our Q&A session, let me share some closing remarks with you. Earlier this year, the Hamburg North Sea Summit highlighted the urgency of building an integrated offshore grid with European TSOs presenting a joint framework for hybrid interconnections and shared cost models capable of enabling up to 1,000 terawatt hour of clean energy by 2050. At the same time, the Hamburg Declaration committed key North Sea countries to delivering 100 gigawatt of joint offshore wind projects, underscoring that system security and sovereignty will increasingly depend on collaborative offshore development rather than isolated national solutions. Complementing this, Mrs.
Von der Leyen underscored at the recent Antwerp Industry Summit that Europe's continued dependence on fossil fuels exposes industry to volatile price swings and highlighted the urgent need to reduce this exposure by accelerating the shift towards stable, homegrown, clean energy sources. The current war in the Middle East underlines once again how vulnerable Europe remains to external shocks. Strengthening and interconnecting the European grid is therefore essential, not only to expand access to affordable, clean electricity, but also to reinforce Europe's energy sovereignty and reduce dependence on increasingly unstable fossil fuel supply. In this context, Elia Group stand out as the only international electricity transmission group in Europe, combining a multi-country footprint, deep operational presence in both the North and Baltic Sea , and a public-private capital structure capable of aligning public anchors with long-term private investors behind strategic and critical infrastructure.
This combination is exceptionally unique in our sector and precisely what Europe needs in these troubled times. Our leadership is most visible in our flagship hybrid interconnector portfolio, the first of its kind in Europe and the foundation of tomorrow's meshed offshore grid. 50Hertz thinks and acts on European scale. Together with Energinet, they already have put the world's first hybrid interconnector, Kriegers Flak, into operation. Together with Denmark, they will realize Bornholm Energy Island, unlocking large-scale offshore wind in the Baltic Sea and connect through hybrid HVDC links. In Belgium, Princess Elisabeth Island and Nautilus could form one of Europe's earliest true hybrid offshore hubs, pulling up to 3.5 gigawatt of offshore wind while interconnecting Belgium and the U.K. HansaLink, a key project of our entity, WindGrid, expands this logic across new cross-border corridors, drawing private capital into offshore infrastructure at scale.
With Nemo Link operating reliably for years, we have already proven our capability to deliver, operate, and maintain complex interconnectors safely and efficiently. This portfolio is unmatched in Europe. No other player combines so many hybrid assets across the two strategic European sea basins under one group, not as concept, but as concrete investable projects that show how offshore wind and interconnection can be planned, financed, and built together. Thank you for your attention. Stephanie, I think we are now ready to move to the Q&A section.
Yes. Thank you, Bernard. In the meantime, Yannick Deconinck , our Head of Corporate Finance, has also joined us. Let's turn to the screen. I see that our first question comes from UBS. Wanda, please go ahead. Hi.
Hi. Hopefully you can hear me.
Mm-hmm.
Congratulations on the results and the CapEx delivery because there were some concerns last year if you will deliver. I mean, two questions to Marco. The first one is on the capitalized costs at the net income level. I mean, what was it in 2025 for 50Hertz? 'Cause I couldn't see it disclosed. What is embedded in your 2026 guidance? Also if you could give us any rough guidance on the capitalized cost until 2028, that would be much appreciated. It's a very hard-to-model item. The second question is on the S&P. As you said back in September, S&P confirmed the rating, they also said that the Elia Group consolidated business risk has marginally increased, and they raised the FFO to net debt threshold by 100 basis points.
They also assumed that your CapEx post 2029 will moderate. Does a higher FFO to net debt requirement worry you when thinking about CapEx plan or funding beyond 2028?
Maybe start with the technical question then on the capitalized borrowing cost. It's indeed something we are mindful of in the figures of 2025, which are subject to disclosure finally with the annual accounts at the end. There's a part close to EUR 90 million considered in the German figures. What is a non-cash result contribution? That puts a little bit 11% into a certain perspective as, of course, this is being included in the 11% guidance. For the future growth, it's indeed linked to some degree with the investments to be taken.
However, it's not linear simply as we try to limit the impact to some degree, and it's being connected to a relatively short period between two milestones of the projects, where I must admit that's a little bit hard to model in the future. I assume on one end, that the IFRS standard is subject of a change which might help us then in the future to limit that impact. However, it will grow and as a rule of thumb, potentially, it's good to look into the investments in the year being taken compared with the previous year, how it will be growing in the year 26.
What should we What is embedded in your guidance? Your guidance for 50Hertz was I mean, much above consensus.
In the guidance of 50Hertz, it's a similar area.
Okay
...EUR 90 million-EUR 100 million. That's currently what we have embedded there.
And then-
On the FFO to net debt, currently after the capital raise, we feel rather comfortable, in particular, with an eye on the liquidity position the group currently has. Therefore, we are not in a rush. Of course, we are looking into the horizon beyond 29. As we stated, it's subject of the new CapEx plan, which is still under development, as both the grid development plan in Germany and the federal development plan in Belgium is still under construction, if you want to say it like this. As this is the underlying, combined with the regulation of our future capacity in funding and of course in remuneration, that is a necessary input for our funding plans.
Of course, the rating will play a significant role in there as, of course, we don't expect that the growth will stop. Taking that into perspective, there's a solid investment-grade position being needed to fund the investments in the future as well.
Thank you.
Thank you, Wanda. Let's go to the next question. I believe it's from Bank of America. Julius, please go ahead.
Yes. Thank you. Thank you so much for the presentation and taking my questions. I have two. The first one is on German regulation. In the draft methodology that came out in December, I think the benefits are for now ruled out the concept of a Return on Equity adder. I believe since then you've and the other TSO have provided some evidence why there should be an adder. If you have any update, do you still believe that this could come in the final methodology? Any update on the reception, that would be quite useful.
The second question is a little bit more high level, but if I look out to, like, beyond the summer and towards the end of the year, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think at that point in time, you should have the new Belgian returns, the final methodology in Germany and a good idea on the grid development plan in both countries. Could there be a point in time where you will upgrade the market, update the market on your investment plan and maybe roll forwards to 2030 with the new CMD? It would be useful to know. Thank you.
Maybe starting from the last question and then developing to the other ones. Our expectation will be more towards year-end or beginning of next year, to have that clarity, as there are some specific aspect that you name a few of them in the regulation, but on a CapEx plan as well. To name a few, in Germany, that will be the total amount and the sequence of the offshore grid connections, which will play a big role in our CapEx program, or the question on overhead lines versus cabling and the big DC corridors. That will, of course, change significantly the means being needed to realize that CapEx program. This debate, to be fair, is still open.
There we do not see really a lending zone for the time being. A little bit the same in Belgium with the Princess Elisabeth Island and the DC components or the interconnector there. Even though government will potentially take a position then, in the second quarter, you do see a kind of delay in that decision-making as this was originally being foreseen in March. Therefore, likely, that is more towards the end of the year where we have that kind of clarity. On the point you mentioned in regards to the framework, in the conference, the BNetzA hosted, they stated a little bit that they are not convinced yet, on an adder to the Return on Equity. That's still a subject of a discussion.
At least they opened the door for, and we provided some evidence that this is being needed. It's fair to say there's an ongoing discussion on that one. What is, first of all, a positive sign that the door has not been closed, but so far it's not being drafted in any adjustment of the term, of the term-determination, of the return rates for the future.
Thank you.
Thank you, Julius. Are there any other questions? I do not see... Temi. Hi. Good morning, Temi. Please go ahead. We have you here with us.
Sure. Good morning, and congrats also on the results presentation this morning. I've got a couple of questions, but I'll keep it to two. One is just clarity on your 2026 net debt expectations. If you can provide an update on that'd be very helpful. Clarity on the Belgian regulatory timelines in terms of, you know, the consultations, but also the final determinations. Finally, it seems that, you know, you've had stronger operational delivery in Belgium and Germany, 2024, 2025. For 2026, you've raised the guidance above consensus expectations. I'm just wondering whether you might consider revisiting your 2024-2028 guidance in terms of returns and when maybe you might consider that.
Net debt, maybe net debt I will take. On net debt for 2026, we expect to land with the CapEx that we have announced at a net debt of around EUR 19.5 billion. That's what we are targeting for in 2026. In Belgian regulation, there's a relatively straightforward path being published. There will be a public consultation, 14th of April, if I'm not missed, or 17th. Mid of April.
18, 18th, yeah.
Yeah.
Mid of April. Happy to invite you to comment on that one once it is being out there. A final determination in the course of Q2. End of half year, there's likely robust visibility how the scheme will looks like.
In terms of guidance?
Guidance, I think we still stick to the guidance which we have given as the growth is still intact with the double-digit % growth on the EPS, and on the net result to the shareholders, and around, as you have seen in the past, 20% growth on the RUP. That's quite consistent to each other. Even though the guidance for 2026 seems to be a little bit higher than the expectation if you make it linear. That comes from some of the aspects which are not that fully linearized as we try to optimize the results, of course, as we can.
In connection with commissionings, for instance, we might have one or the other year an outlier, and 26 seems to be one of them, as a couple of significant investments come to commissioning, which gives us a favor, in particular in Germany.
Wonderful. Thank you.
Thank you, Temi, for your questions. The next questions will come from Piotr from Citibank. Good morning, Piotr.
Hi. Good morning, everybody. I have a couple of questions. The first one I wanted to ask you about this financial result in 50Hertz. In your disclosures, you also point out, apart from increased capitalized interest, you point out to Accrued interest from the developer of an offshore platform of EUR 28 million, plus EUR 10 million from discounting effects on long-term provisions. Just wanted to understand, can you please explain on this first item what it really means? Is there any change on these numbers between 2025 and 2026? I'm trying to get a bridge between a 2025 and 2026 financial item. Is it just in capitalizing trends going up and these things disappear, or how shall we think about, can you about these items?
Second question, I wanted to ask you about your actual performance. In your Slide 20, sorry, Slide 19, you say that the net income of ETB increased by EUR 1 million because of incentives. I was under impression that the incentives should grow in line with RAB, with size of a business, but it doesn't seem so. Can you please tell us how do you assume the incentives increment between 2025 and 2026? Likewise, you don't disclose incentives for 50Hertz. I think there are some outperformance.
Can you also say, like, operationally, do you improve, or do you keep like a size of outperformance in line with business growing, with RAB growing, or that basically the incentives and outperformance becomes bigger, smaller relative to the size of a RAB, and so on? These were two questions.
Okay, maybe tackling the first one on the wind farm contract, which we closed. There's a nearshore wind farm at the German coast, which is being connected by 50Hertz in an AC technology. For efficiency reasons, we agreed on to share the platform with the wind farm developer so that not both needs to have a platform being erected, what saves costs for both sides. It's a more or less a 50/50 split there. The wind farm developer pushed back for some of the costs to some degree, and we had a relatively long-lasting negotiations on that one.
We finally agreed on that the funding costs, the financing costs of this shrunk, which is related to the final agreement, and which will be borne by the wind farm operator, being out of the regulatory sphere. That's something, the 50Hertz and the Elia Group can keep finally. The number you refer to is the accumulated interest income over over the periods, once we started that construction. The effect itself will remain, but the order of magnitude will potentially go down, as this is a kind of loan agreement, which is related on one end to the size, and the second, to the scheme, where there's some flexibility, on a wind farm operator side.
Once they are paying us, then of course, the interest connected to the outstanding e-exposure will be lower in one of the years. As this wind farm will likely or the connection of the wind farm will likely be finished in 2026, and the wind farm operator will potentially commission its assets then beginning of 2027. Despite the fact that there's a 15 years period on that contract, there might be some changes over time in the payment scheme as the flexibility is on the wind farm operator. That's a little bit long explanation. It's relatively complex matter, but likely that there will be an interest income over a certain period of time with different kind of order of magnitude.
Okay.
Maybe, Piotr, on your question on the incentives in Belgium, it's indeed correct that they increased by EUR 1 million compared to last year. It's indeed correct that they are to a certain extent correlated with RAB, but as well, they have in the regulation a maximum amount that you can have on certain incentives. That's one element. Some of the incentives are a bit, I would say, binary between zero to one. If you remember last year, we had a cable issue linked to the availability of the Moyle in 2024, we had no incentive at that year. This year we have a full incentive, a full maximum amount.
That gives a little bit why you don't see exactly that, linear, evolution on the, on the incentives. Nevertheless, I think we had an, a solid, operational, result where incentives remain, quite important to the overall, result in Belgium.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Piotr. Let's now turn to Deutsche Bank. Olly, please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, everybody. Two questions from my side, please, like everyone else. The first one just is on CapEx. Now, I appreciate that you need to wait for the grid development plans to give a precise view on future CapEx for 2029 onwards, and that's more likely to impact presumably CapEx in the 2030s. Are you able to give kind of a high-level view in Germany of kind of the broad level of increase you think might be likely, given that most of the changes to the grid development plan are probably gonna impact in the 2030s? Any, any insight you can give there would be helpful.
Secondly, just on funding the plan from 2029 and onwards, I know obviously you don't want to be precise about this, but could you say, is there a credible scenario where you think you might be able to fund CapEx in 2029 and 2030 without the need for equity using the rest of your equity toolkit with the hybrids and opening up the capital structure of some of the TSOs potentially? Any views on that would be great. Thank you.
Tackling the first one, it's still, as we said, a little bit too premature to lay out a number. If you take the total volume, which is currently as a price tag, being seen on a total grid development plan in Germany, you can compare the EUR 320 billion, which was the number in the last grid development plan, which the EUR 340 billion, which is currently the number connected to the most likely scenario. It's not chosen yet, but that gives a little bit the view that likely the outcome will be rather the same with an eye on EUR 45 in terms of euros. However, there will be a kind of different allocation on that one.
What it makes it that hard for the time being, really to say, the CapEx is further growing or going down at a certain point of time, as of course, only part of the EUR 340 billion are connected to 50Hertz and to the Elia Group. As a rule of thumb, it was 20% all the time. The spread over 20 years is a difference than the spread over 10 years. That's, I mean, that's the simple math. As the former government was quite in a rush to complete or to set very ambitious targets, which partially have been out of reality, the current government is more pragmatic in that view, that's a little bit what the debate is on.
On the funding?
On the funding, I mean, we have full flexibility now. That's currently what we are gonna execute. That all our options are valid. We are working on further optionalities as well. Please, as we don't have the CapEx numbers currently in place, we do not want to give guess how we are continuing to fund the growth in the future at this moment.
Nor do we have the regulatory framework set in place.
Yeah. It's a bit early.
I think it would indeed be a bit too early. Thank you for the questions. I see the next questions will come from Odo Tess. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Morning. Great results. A couple of questions. Do you still require probably an additional EUR 2 billion in the CapEx, and can you confirm that you still aim to raise this via, in principle, EUR 4 billion of hybrids? Second question is on your energy island and the DC connectivity there, as well as for the U.K. connector. The HVDC cost price was too high. Any reason in your view why HVDC pricing now should be lower? Third is on the North Sea offshore wind pact, targeting 15 gigawatts installations by 2031. What can we expect as impact for your CapEx, clearly from that plan compared to what we currently are installing on North Sea?
Maybe just starting with the first one. Our toolkits provide us flexibility, and we stated that it can be both hybrid, the hybrid capacity potentially being sufficient at this point of time, while another option is to open the capital on one of the subsidiaries and/or finding structural solutions to help us funding the growth. That's still something we are closely monitoring. There's a couple of key elements to be considered and criterias in the decision-making. One is timing. Another one is, of course, cost of capital. Third one is execution to name a few of them. As we have a strong liquidity position and, of course, the credit rating is comfortable in as well. We are carefully looking for the best solutions there.
Once this is being decided, it can be both extremes. Yeah. Both elements of the toolkit would give us the credit in total, so has the potential. However, it could be a combination as well, depending on the point of time where we make the decision.
On the Princess Elisabeth Island , I would say that, first, it was the right decision, to postpone the project, because as you know, at the time, we were really in a very heated market on the HVDC component. However, the teams have been working on updated design. We have also some very good discussion between UK and Belgium on how to best share the costs and the benefits of the project. I hope that in the coming weeks, month, we can come with a solution that fits with the original objectives while being more reasonable from a cost point of view.
We see that the HVDC technology remains an expensive technology, but we also see that the heat that we had a few months ago is a little bit lower. On your North Sea approach, which actually the Princess Elisabeth Island is a sub part of, as I explained in my conclusion, I think we are really, as Elia Group, extremely well positioned being the only transmission group having a portfolio of asset already in our base today, but of different nature because we have the Belgian port on the North Sea, we have the projects on the Baltic Seas with 50Hertz. We have also, with our subsidiary WindGrid, a project called HansaLink.
The advantage, of course, of this setup is that it's a step setup where you can also use financial players who can help the financing of the project. I'm not gonna preempt on the decision of Europe. I think by the way, we see with what's happening now in the Middle East, that it's high time that we reduce our dependency on gas. That offshore wind in the north and the Baltic Sea is a critical element in there. We will see how Europe will evolve in and a great package already goes that direction, but how they translate that into a series of project.
I think what's interesting is that area by its strategic geographic positioning, by its current portfolio of project, but also by its setup, where we can leverage financing capital at different levels, is very well-placed to play a role in there. Already in our current portfolio of projects and in our current asset base, we have projects on both seas in the north and in the Baltic Sea.
Thank you.
Thank you, Tess. Yes. Hi. I see the next question coming. Please go ahead. Dirk?
Yes.
Sorry.
Yeah. Yeah. Good morning to you all, and also from my side, compliments for the good results and outlook, of course. Yeah, on the... I am still going to try on the North Sea's pact and thank you for the answers so far. Looking at the ambitions and with the involvement of TSOs as well in this, in these kind of framework ambitions that were published, a step up to 15 gigawatts already in 2031 and for a number of years, even a decade, and now looking at your CapEx approaching EUR 7 billion.
Let's say connecting all these gigawatts already up front or preparing for that up front and for a number of years to come, is it fair to say that, yeah, maybe previous assumptions on EUR 7 billion being the higher end of forward CapEx, is that something that we need to reassess to a larger number, a higher number? That's my first question. The second one is on CapEx, and it's a great achievement that of course you met the expectation after the, you know, I think the questions that were raised at the mid-year presentation. What should we expect for 2026?
Will it be a more balanced picture of the EUR 6.8 billion or also one third, two thirds? Maybe some guidance there. Thanks.
I would take the first one.
Yeah
Let the team go for the second one. I think the guidance remains the same. We are on EUR 7 billion CapEx because we are talking on a series of projects that we know. We will have to see how the developments happen, and we will be looking at it as you do. According to the developments, of course, Elia Group wants to position itself on these developments. I think then there will be also another way at looking at it, and I think from the European standpoint, from the political standpoint, we will have also to think of the tools to make sure that we can reach those developments without having always a direct impact on the balance sheet of the TSOs.
That's where I say with some of our tools like WindGrid, we are very well-placed to test those type of model. We'll also have to see what Europe does in terms of CEF funding and other conditions. Just to say, within the current framework, we are in the current guidance and there is no reason to change. Of course, we remain attentive and opportunist of what it would develop, but I think then there would be other ways of looking at the thing and not directly in the CapEx of a TSO, which will be one of the topic to manage if we want to reach this great ambition, but also needed ambition when you see the situation of Europe.
Maybe to complement, we published recently a paper then which could be a way forward in the future to fund in particular the far offshore wind farm developments and the connection to that one, mainly via hybrid interconnectors, where we are facing several constraints to go ahead there. That could be an element with the so-called SPV concept which helps both on one end to unlock a little bit resistance in one or the other countries, and secondly, combine the forces with giving some securities by public authorities like European investment banks, for instance, and combining with private capital to fund that in the future.
As Bernard rightly said, it's questionable whether all TSO can absorb simply these big requests of capital in the future. In regards to our CapEx program, it's likely that you will do see a heavy loaded second half year again, as this is on one hand a little bit the nature as during the summer most of the construction is being made. Of course, we usually account for the progress once a certain milestone has been reached, and that's likely more in autumn than in spring. The second one is that it, at least in Germany, gives us a favor to have that backloaded profile, as usually you get remunerated for the average of a year, while for the capital costs as well.
While of course the later you will have it, the bigger the gain could be. That's something which we have seen in the results as well as in particular the difference between the real funding costs and the funding costs, which are being embedded in the grid fees, gives us a favor to some degree and contributes to results too. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Dirk, for your questions, and let's go to Wim from KBC. Good morning, Wim.
Yes. Hi, good morning. I hope you can hear me.
Very well.
Yes, very well.
Oh, thanks. All right. Also congrats from me. Lots of questions have been asked. Just wanna throw in some add-ons. If I wanna come back to the financing, the equity raise potential, and I understand regulatory framework has to be put in place. Can you give an idea, suppose that if you want to do something like an ABB, like in 2024, half a billion, if that's possible, what you need to do, whether you would need to have some kind of board agreement first, if that's a possibility, simply because the share price has rallied quite a lot. It's more than doubled since the last capital raise. How you feel about that? Smaller questions on the dividend. I think in the past you said that that would go in line with inflation.
I think it stays more flat now. Is that also the outlook for the future? I completely would agree, that would make sense as well. Lastly, more like a general question and something that we've seen in the U.S., where the government has asked Big Tech to, basically pay via some kind of taxes to, upgrade the grids, because obviously we know that demands a lot of investments to accommodate all the hyperscale investments. Just your view, is that something that could be possible in Europe?
Obviously, things move a little bit slower. If there's anything that you can say, just in order to kind of divert the pressure that we have seen and the pushback from industry and consumers on, obviously offloading a lot of the investments, via the energy prices. Those are my three questions.
Maybe I can tackle the dividends if you like. we indeed gave a dividend or are proposing a dividend of EUR 2.05. what you need to take as a basis is actually the EUR 2, because when we did the capital increase, we actually restated the dividend. If we were to increase the dividend on a restated basis, it would be close to EUR 2. we did not want to pay less than last year dividend, so we have increased it slightly. That has been our rationale for the EUR 2.05.
We do see that as a strong signal that the investment in the Elia Group is a very accretive one, and the dividend payment is one of the elements there. That gives some certainty that our growth path is intact.
Mm-hmm.
The one about the ABB.
Regarding the ABB, what we need to have in place for that, first of all is we will have to have an authorized capital in order to do such a transaction. We, as Marco already highlighted today, we are not looking to use any non-dilutive. We are looking to use non-dilutive options. I think there we have enough flexibility. The way forward would be towards the future to bring back an authorized capital, put that in place, and that are the first steps that we need to take.
On the U.S., well, first of all, it reminds us of the potential in the U.S. We have a little bit of a setback at the moment, we are convinced that over the long run, we know the situation of the grid in the U.S. It's certainly not at level with the AI ambition that the U.S. has, and the battle of AI will pass via a strong grid. I think it's good that we are positioning there. It will take a little bit more longer than expected, I'm convinced that the potential is the same because the grid becomes a critical asset in every region of the world that want to electrify.
The debate, of course, is who needs to pay. We see the investments that the hyperscalers are doing and all things relative, the investment in the grids are indeed a fraction of the investment they are generally doing. The idea to make them contribute is a political decision where it will be difficult for me to take a position. It's clear that we've seen in our countries that the development of AI and data centers is representing a certain burden on the net, a burden on the consumption. I think at some point, there are two positions that need to be taken. The first one is what do we want in terms of industrial development and where do we give the priorities in terms of segments, AI, data centers versus general industry?
How do we make sure that the general consumer is not hampered by a consumption that he's not responsible for? I think I don't know what is the exact recipe, but the direction is certainly a direction to investigate.
Maybe to complement on that one, on one end, there are multiple congestions on all these connection requests. Funding is one. In Germany, for instance, the consumers are not paying for the direct connection. It's indeed then the applicant. On the other side, we do see that the grid is heavily loaded, and simply that makes a congestion in connecting a new device to the grid. As this is something we need to be careful of as well to protect our people doing the works there. Last but not least, it's not all the time that visible how mature the project is. Our lead time, it's fair to say, are still longer than the ones from these developer.
As they want to go in a staged process usually with extending the devices which are consuming then at this stage, but we are designing the connection only once. That's all the time a little bit mismatch in the planning horizon. That's something which we need to work on commonly to make sure that we do see how mature the project is, that we can give some access being granted, and we can rely on that one as well as, of course, we want to prevent that we invest in an area where nothing is gonna happen then. We honestly have seen in Germany with the ship industry as it canceled the big factory in an area of Magdeburg, and then the TSO was forced to bring down the commitments in that area.
The land has been already being acquired. That's a mismatch, which we need to be careful on, as of course we need to protect then the final consumer, as Bernard rightly says.
Yeah
that we are not socializing costs of the industry. Yes. That's a little bit what we are in.
It's clear that AI needs the grid, but the grid also needs AI. We will also, and we are really developing an AI strategy and developing. We are already using a lot of AI, but we want to accelerate there because AI is also a way to solve some of the bottleneck issues that we have today. It's really a very close relationship, both ends.
Thanks, Wim, for the questions. Let's now move to Juan from Kepler Cheuvreux . Good morning, Juan.
Yes. Good morning. Thank you for taking questions. I have two which are more of a follow-up, if I may. The first one is on guidance. Can you please confirm that you have no additional hybrids included on your 2026 guidance? On guidance as well, what is the targeted Return on Equity that you have on Belgium and Germany within the guidance that you're giving, especially on Germany, as is substantially above expectations. The second one is on the U.S. impairments. What are your expectations now in terms of the timing and size of the expected earnings contribution that you expect in the region going forward? If you can give us more clarity on that will be helpful. Thank you.
Will you take the hybrid?
I think in the guidance that we have, we have given, is a guidance that takes into consideration multiple options that we have in the funding toolkit. We do not exclude. To be clear, we do not exclude an, a hybrid issuance, but the guidance that we have published this morning takes into the consideration multiple options. In terms of Return on Equity, as you know, we are not guiding specifically on a Return on Equity for a specific year. We have guided on the Return on Equity over the period, over the regulatory period, both in Germany and Belgium. That's still something that we are targeting for, knowing that you could have certain variability year-over-year due to important one-off effects like we had this year.
That's also why we have been very clear on what that one-off effect was, in Germany.
To remind you, the average guidance which we have given was between 7% and 8% in Belgium, while in Germany it was 8%-10%.
Yeah. On the impairment?
Did we miss one?
Yes, I think on the.
U.S. impairment
...U.S. impairment on the timing, when we could expect a positive contribution. That
Okay
...is a little early to say today because there's still a lot of uncertainty on when those projects, and how and when they will materialize, but that's more towards the end of the decade, I would say.
It's clear that, as you know, we have three projects. The project on Clean Path New York, which is a line in New York, didn't pass some regulatory approval, what we call a priority transmission project, but it doesn't take away that New York needs an extra transmission line. We will use the assets to participate to further project development. There we believe we are rather facing a delay. You know, the uncertainty that exists today in the U.S. about the offshore and things can turn very quickly one way or the other. Our strategy there is to secure the assets that we have in place, and we have already the leasing rights on this project as Leading Light Wind.
Also Green there for the moment, that's a project that, as Stephanie explained in the presentation, continues on its path of the different regulatory hurdles. There, for the moment, there is no reason to review the project. As you say, we are rather delaying in time. As I said, to your colleague just earlier, I'm convinced that the fundamentals stay, and at some point somebody will see that these projects are heavily needed.
In the 2026 guidance, there's no positive contribution being expected, to make that clear.
Thank you, Juan. Let's now turn to Alberto Van Ex- from Exane. Hi, Alberto. How are you?
Hi. Thank you so much for taking my questions, and congratulations for the results. A couple of follow-ups from my side. The first one is regarding the German regulation. Maybe if you could, based on the, like, already published consultation papers, if you could quantify what are your expectations in terms of hurdle and WACC, based on the current consultation papers and what else is needed. Maybe if you could give us some guidance of what will be your expected level of returns in order to get this competitive returns that you need for being competitive in the equity markets. The second one will be regarding the potential update to the market, the potential Capital Market Day. You have said that maybe by the end of the year or beginning of 2027.
When do you know that we will have more visibility in if this is happening or if we can consider as confirmed or it's still pending? Thank you so much.
I think maybe I'll start on the Capital Markets Day. That's still very much pending, yeah. As Marco clearly said, there are still a lot of moving factors. We don't yet have clarity in Germany. Also in Germany, the final elements will only be defined somewhere in 2027. That's why we cannot fix today a date somewhere in the future. Next to that, we also have grid development planning that is ongoing in Belgium, in Germany. Those timelines aren't super fixed neither. This will be something I think towards the end of the year we will have more clarity on. I do not expect us to really do a CMD still this year.
To come to the German regulation, if you really look into the paper, even though it's heavy reading, I would say, it's for the time being, for our perception, more a description of a structural approach, while the ingredients are not being flexed yet. Even though a VEC model could be something comparable, but the big debate on the cost of debt coverage is not finished yet, so that's still ongoing. Whether a rating adjustment is being made, which kind of reference rate is being used, these elements are still pending. That's why it's a little bit too early really to say, what the outcome could looks like. We previously discussed equity or return ADA for the TSOs. What is still in the discussion, which is not in yet.
I would say we are not there yet with that what we assume BNR could deploy. However, our clear target is not being worse than today. If you take the return on equity which we disclosed and take off all the accounting items, there's still a return rate above 8.4%, which is, if you want to name it, a kind of cash return. As Bernard already said, the total package matters. That's something we are requesting, and that's something which we are targeting to get out of that. Which elements shall be put in place, there we have some openness.
If there's an incentive being put in place which gives us an order of magnitude landing there, we are fine with it as well as we are happy to get challenged in terms of our operations. So far, it's not really clear, yeah. That therefore, we are hesitating to give a guidance what it could give for the time being.
Thank you, Alberto. Let's now I see, Olly, you have some further follow-up questions. Can you hear us, Olly?
Yes. I scared me off. Yeah, just one follow-up question, please.
Yes, go ahead.
Going back to the discussion on the capitalized interest within the guidance for 2026 at 50Hertz.
Mm-hmm.
Which is non-cash. Is there anything else within that 2026 guide 50Hertz that is non-cash in addition to the capitalized interest that we should know about, or is that the only item? Thank you.
yeah, I
It's material.
There is a kind, yeah. Now we come a little bit in gray territory as we assume commissioning, which gives us a full depreciation in the revenues. There's a cash connected to that one, while the depreciation is lower, the real depreciation, which we are recording in that year. For us, it's a cash item which contributes to the results as well, while the capitalized borrowing cost is a non-cash item as this is reverted later stage. Therefore, I would keep it on that one, knowing that, of course, the example which I raised could give us a favor in the results of next year as well.
As I said, if you only linearize that, the result would look a little bit outstanding compared to that linearization in line with the CapEx, which you otherwise would compute.
Maybe if I can complement with Marco, for those that have been following us, for a couple of years, you see that we also have sometimes discounting of interconnecting provisions or interconnector income. As you know, you sometimes have spike in the forward rates that has an impact on those long-term provisions. That's not something that we estimate or take into account in the guidance as such, but that's always something that can happen. We were confronted with that a little bit at the end of Q4 of this year, where the interest rates started to move up. That's not something that we have a control on. That's not something that we can steer. There we have a neutral approach, but in the actuals, of course, that can have an impact.
Mm-hmm.
Thank you. What was the impact of that in the 2025 results from that movement at the end of Q4?
I think at the end of Q4, we had a net impact of EUR 22 million that was coming from this discounting.
Provisions
... provisions.
Mm-hmm.
Thank you, Ollie. If there are no further questions, let's wrap up today's presentation. First of all, a big thank you to all the teams who have contributed. Thank you, Bernard, Marco, Yannick.
Thank you, Stephanie.
Thank you for joining us today. Have a nice day, and see you soon.