Good day and welcome to the Shurgard earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Please note today's call may be recorded, and later you'll have the opportunity to ask questions during a question-and-answer session. It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to Caroline. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Ineke. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for the Q3 2024 results. I'm here with Marc Oursin, Jean Kreusch, and Thomas Oversberg. Before we begin, we want to remind you that all statements, other than statements of historical fact, included on this call are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected by the statements. These risks and other factors could adversely affect our business and future results that are described in our earnings release and in our publicly reported information. You can find our press release and audio webcast details of this conference call on our Shurgard.eu website. We had some connection issues during the trial. If that happens, we will drop the line and reconnect. With that, I will turn the call over to Marc.
Thank you, Caroline. So let's go on page two, which is an update of the year-to-date September results, starting with the continued growth across all markets. So if we focus on the whole store revenue, so the year-to-date reached 10.8% year-to-year as a growth, with an acceleration in Q3, with a 16%, which is, by the way, supported by a large portfolio expansion in the U.K. and also our three acquisitions that we did in Germany. If we focus on the same stores, the same stores did 4.7% growth year-to-date, with also an acceleration in Q3 reaching 5.2%. And if you break down this within the volume and the value effect, the volume effect, we have a high average same-store occupancy of almost 90%, precisely 89.8%, with a slight increase of 0.3% on the net rented versus last year.
And if you look at the value effect, our same-store property in place rent were fueled by positive pricing dynamics, enabling a 5.3% year-to-date average in place rent increase. So therefore, we got a very strong top-line growth fueled by expansion and, of course, the performance of our same-store stores coming from the pricing dynamics. If you go to the next slide, page three, so the graphic shows you the continuing positive trends of the previous quarters.
If you focus on the red line, which is the year-to-date, sorry, the revenue growth year-on-year, and if you look at specifically the past four quarters, so the rolling year from Q4 2023 to Q3 2024, you see that this growth has been for each quarter between 4% and slightly above 5%, so very resilient, and at the same time demonstrating the stable and efficient market dynamics that we have in our geographies. Now, let's go to the rest of the P&L for the year-to-date and the quarter. Our same-store NOI margin grew to 66.7%, so an improvement of 0.3 percentage points versus the first nine months of 2023, so reflecting the positive impact of the digitalization initiatives on our infrastructure. Meanwhile, our total store NOI grew in line with our revenue growth by 10.2% or a revenue growth of 10.8%.
At the same time, of course, we have an increase of our interest expenses due to the Lok'nStore bridge financing. On top of that, we have kept a stable effective tax rate, meaning that our adjusted earnings reached EUR 102.3 million , which means a growth of 7.2% versus last year, knowing that Lok'nStore earnings are being neutral earlier than anticipated. The earnings per share actually is stable, resulting from the dilutive impact and effect of the November 2023 equity raise that was representing an increase of 9% of new shares. Again, very powerful and strong operational execution driving the strong margin and earnings growth. If we go to the next slide, talking about our pipeline, so our future growth is supported by this attractive potential development so- called pipeline and secured.
So the delivering new capacity for the years 2024 to 2026, so current year and the coming two years represent more than 400,000 square meters, which is close to 29% of our size, I would say, in 2023, so the net rentable. This physical growth represents an investment of EUR 1.2 billion as direct or debt cost. The expectation of returns at maturity is actually between 8%-9% yield, which represents an additional NOI of EUR 100 million per year at maturity. So the one to remember, it is massive. It is actually delivering very nice yields, and it is secured. If you go to the next slide, next page, where you see how this pipeline has been evolved and secondly, how it has been spread for the, it is spread, sorry, for the coming three years, the current 2024 and 2025 and 2026.
This is the red bars that you can see, and you see that the amount of square meters is very significant in 2024, reaching 235,000 square meters, already secured almost 59,000 square meters for 2025 and 110,000. What is interesting to notice, if you take the average of these three years, we are on average per year at 135,000 a year, which is more or less the double than the average of the previous years, 2023, 2022, and for sure 2021, so knowing, by the way, that this secured pipeline does not integrate any potential bolt-on acquisition that could take place in 2025 and 2026, so clearly over-delivering our guidance.
Then, specifically, if you go to the next slide, so page seven regarding our Q3 numbers, so and shortly, so revenue growth, yes, + 16% year-on-year whole store coming from the acquisition for two months out of three in our accounts from Lok'nStore, so + 37.4% in the U.K. And in Germany, the benefit of the acquisitions that I mentioned, + 42.8%, and with a double-digit growth in the Netherlands and also other markets performing very well. Meanwhile, the NOI grew by 14.9% on the quarter with a stable payroll cost for our same-store, and therefore the acceleration coming from the portfolio expansion. More specifically, for the same-store, the revenue grew by 5.2%. And again, here, if you look at the volume aspect of it, occupancy reached 90.4% with an increase of 0.7%. It was, if you remember, 0.3% for the year-to-date, so a slight acceleration here.
For the in-place rent, pretty good performance of +5.5%, and again, demonstrating our pricing model efficiency. Meanwhile, the adjusted earnings bottom line grew by 6.4% and reaching EUR 45.3 million. Of course, we have the impact, as I said, about the financing needs for Lok'nStore. All in all, a significant acceleration of revenues and margin, same-store, and acquisition. On this, I turn to Jean. Thank you.
Thank you, Marc. Now, on the back of a very strong third-quarter results from our existing stores combined with the impact of the Lok'nStore acquisition, we are revising our outlook for the year 2024 at constant exchange rates. We are now guiding towards an all-store revenue growth of at least 12% for the year 2024 versus 8% previously. Our all-store NOI growth will be nearly aligned with the revenue growth. We will deliver circa 235,000 square meters, or 17% of our 2023 net rentable square meter, investing EUR 750 million. Finally, we now forecast our adjusted earnings to be in line with consensus prior to Lok'nStore acquisition. Indeed, we are now expecting the impact of the acquisition on the earnings to be neutral in 2024. Finally, the adjusted earnings per share will be impacted as foreseen following the November 2023 equity raise.
Our guidance around income, tax rate, dividend, and disciplined financial policy on page nine has not changed. On page ten, we are very pleased to one more time demonstrate the capability of our platform to drive strong top and bottom line growth through our operational excellence and our capacity to integrate extremely fast our acquisitions into our proven model. In the third quarter, with Lok'nStore numbers in for two months, our revenue total company has grown by 15.8%, our NOI by 14.6%, and our EBITDA by 12.8% when compared to last year at constant exchange rate. Our adjusted earnings reached EUR 45.3 million for the quarter and EUR 123.5 million for the year-to-date, an increase of 6.4% and 7.2% respectively at consumer exchange rate.
Finally, our adjusted earnings per share is one cent lower than last year for both the quarter and the year due to the equity raise we did end of last year. On the next page, we show an acceleration of the same-store property operating revenue growth at 5.2% at consumer exchange rate for the quarter versus 4.7% for the first nine months. For the quarter, the occupancy at 90.4% remained stable, while the average in place rent at consumer exchange rate grew by 5.5%, demonstrating once again the strength of our revenue management model based on occupancy. On a country level, all the countries are showing positive revenue growth for the quarter. On page 12, we continue to have a growth-oriented balance sheet with low leverage, spread maturities, and a weighted average interest rate of 3.27%, including the bonds we issued in October.
On page 13, to further look at our balance sheet with a modest level of gearing and significant liquidity, let's go over some highlights. First, we are the first and only European self-storage operator with BBB plus stable investment grade rating. Second, in September, shareholders opted for a dividend in shares for a total of 80% of the dividend rights. Third, on October 22nd, we had a massively successful inaugural EUR 500 million 10-year bond issuance with a fixed coupon of 3.625% to pay out the Lok'nStore bridge financing.
Finally, we still have EUR 161 million of cash available, an LTV of 24.1%, and a net debt to underlying EBITDA of 6.4x . On page 14, I would like to come back on our bond issuance, which allows us to further diversify our financing sources. We have been able to attract a broad and diversified high-quality investor base as evidenced by an order book of EUR 4.6 billion at peak with an oversubscription ratio of 9.2x . The new 10-year bond was priced at a very attractive spread of 135 basis points to mid swap. Now, back to Marc.
Thank you, Jean. Let's go to the next slide. Page 15, focusing on the acquisition of Lok'nStore on August 1st. As a simple reminder, so this acquisition allows Shurgard to double its presence in the U.K. and represent two years of growth in terms of square meter for the total company. We have bought 27 properties based in London, Southeast England, and Greater Manchester regions. The key point is that we did the integration and it was completed just two days after this August 1st. We have been able to grow the occupancy to 69.2% after two months for all these 27 properties, knowing that when we took over, it was 67%. Again, demonstrating a positive start to the integration, which is a great achievement and targeting an occupancy of 90% over the two years ending by December 2026.
What is interesting also, and this is something that we are discovering because we were not in these regions previously, that the customer dynamics are the same than London. After a couple of weeks, we have reached at least 45% of our new contracts done with eRental as in London, where we are close to 50%. And we are clearly on track also to deliver our expectation of synergies, which is EUR 4 million-EUR 5 million of savings on the cost and tax in the first full year. And the news that we also disclosed today is the fact that Lok'nStore now is expected to be earnings neutral in 2024 after the successful refinancing that Jean mentioned and went through versus the initial guidance that was mid-single-digit negative for 2024. So the target is clearly to deliver our 8% annual yield within five to six years down the road.
As a conclusion, if we go on page 16, so actually a couple of things on the operational execution excellence, I think again, the fact that we are raising our guidance plus the revenue growth across all the markets on our same-store stores specifically, and the leading operational platform, meaning the top line and the operational cost management is a clear demonstration of this excellence. Secondly, the 2024 growth acceleration, the successful, of course, integration of Lok'nStore, which is the main key event for us for the year 2024, besides the bond issue, and Germany, the successful acquisition of Prime and Pickens during the course of the year. Talking still about pipeline, we have secured 2024, 2025, 2026 with a very significant pipeline. So for more than 100,000, as we said, square meters, which is close to 30% of our total size in 2023.
What to remember: EUR 1.2 billion value of investment with this return of 8%-9% at maturity, which is, as I presented earlier, EUR 100 million at maturity of additional NOI for the company. As Jean explained to you, we have a very strong balance sheet with a modest level of gearing and significant liquidity. I mean, this year has been really great in the sense that we got, and we were the first self-storage operator to get this strong investment grade, the BBB plus stable outlook. We did this optional scrip dividend, and we got 80% opt-in for that from shareholders, which is also a very significant achievement.
We had a successful issuance of our first bond with a fixed coupon of 3.625%, which is also, we think, a very good performance. Last, using this money to reimburse in full the Lok'nStore acquisition bridge loan, which is removing one uncertainty on this acquisition. Again, demonstrating that Shurgard is the growing number one platform and brand in Europe with operational execution excellence. On this, I turn to you, Caroline, if you have any questions.
Yeah. Thank you, Marc and Jean.
You're welcome.
Now we open the line for your questions.
Thank you. As a reminder, at this time, if you would like to ask a question, it is the star and one on your touch tone telephone. If you find your question has been answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing the pound key. We'll take our first question from Marios Pastou from Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Are you able to hear me okay?
Yes, yes.
Fantastic. Thank you. So there's a couple of questions from my side. Maybe firstly, going into the guidance, I'm assuming your guidance is referring to adjusted earnings per share. And how does that translate into a more explicit earnings per share guidance for, say, this year versus last year based on Lok'nStore turning more neutral? And then secondly, your same-store revenue growth trends, they've been notching up over the last few quarters. What you've seen already, say, in Q4 in October, how do you foresee this extending into maybe the fourth quarter of this year?
Okay. You want to take the first? I'll take the second.
Yeah. So, our earnings per share, we're guiding towards where the consensus was, back to prior to the Lok'nStore acquisition. So, we still expect to be slightly below last year due to the impact of the dilution per share, the dilution of the ABBs we did in November last year.
Last year. And Mario, regarding the trend we see for the, I would say, already the first weeks of Q4, it's good in the sense that we're on track with what we have seen in the previous quarters for the same token, same stores.
Okay. Very clear. So the nine-month earnings per share number is a good proxy for the full year in terms of the reduction year-on-year?
What do you say that the good proxy would be?
So t he line earnings per share. Sorry, just on the earnings per share you've seen over, say, the first nine months of this year, is that a good proxy for, say, the full year if it's going to be slightly below last year on a per share basis?
Yes, and I think you just need to take into account the weighting of the ABB we did last year.
Okay. Very clear. Thank you very much.
You're welcome. Yeah.
Thank you, and we will go next to Frédéric Renard from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Hi, guys. I've got just three, but not that big questions. So the first one is on acquisition. So it seems that your appetite has been clearly bigger over the last year with several acquisitions. You have an announcement you want this morning. How do you see the current capital structure as a risk of slowing down this future appetite? That will be the first question, and I will ask after that to others.
The line is not that great, Frédéric, but what is our capital structure versus the appetite of M&A?
Yes.
Okay. So here, no changes. I mean, we have said that if you take the current disclosure of Q3, our LTV is perfectly in line. That's between 24% and 25%. And net debt to EBITDA, we are at six. And we have said, and we stick to that, that our guidance in the near term is to go back to below 5x . So as soon as we see some bolt-on acquisitions that are making sense and keeping these guidelines for the leverage in mind, we will do that.
Yeah. We still have plenty of capacity on our balance sheet, Frederic. I mean, so there is no issue from that point of view. I mean, we're perfectly in line with our guidance from an LTV point of view. And we always said that we could go above 25% if the right acquisition was there. So we can go up to 35% for the right acquisition. So there is no stress from that point of view.
Okay. And then how do you go with your net debt to EBITDA guidance?
Net debt to EBITDA, I mean, it's going to go progressively. It's going to go back between 4 to 5. I mean, I remind you that the acquisition we did with Lok'nStore is it's an immature portfolio. I mean, still in ramp-up. So the EBITDA is going to grow as the portfolio Lok'nStore ramp-up, and we also implemented the scrip. So all those elements are going to allow us in the next couple of years to go back between four and five. Also, typically, I mean, Lok'nStore was a bit unusual from that point of view as more than 40% of the stores were less than two years, two to three years. They're a very, very young, immature portfolio from that point of view. Most of the acquisitions that we typically do are around 70%-75%, and therefore have a much less impact on our net debt to EBITDA.
Okay. Understood. And maybe on Lok'nStore, is the occupancy rate that you disclosed, which is at 69.2%, in line with your initial thoughts, or is it better? Is it a bit lagging?
Yes. Yes, Frederic. Here, I mean, again, if you look at the other way around, which is what was the starting point and where we want to be by December 26th, we are saying that when we took over on August 1st, we were at this portfolio in the 27 stores were at 67%. And as Jean mentioned, you have a group of stores, let's say, above 80, a big group recently opened, I would say, below 40. But the 67 is supposed to go to 90% till on December 26th, which means more than 24 months. So which means that we need to gain a bit less than one percentage point of occupancy every month. So that's the trajectory in which we are. And for the time being, we're on just after two months. So.
Yeah, and I would say it's pretty positive from that point of view because typically when we do acquisition, it's not always a t all.
At the beginning. Yeah. You have to do some cleanup. So you have always usually a little daily work.
Okay. That's clear. And maybe a last one on your NOI. So in each one, you are targeting a stable NOI margin. I don't think you mentioned that again, but you said that NOI will grow in line with the growth of revenues. I'm just wondering, what does that mean? It means that Q3, which is 40 basis points below last year, is it what we can expect for the year end?
Yeah. Yeah .
I think it's going to.
Yeah. The NOI will grow in line. But it means that it will be slightly below compared to last year in terms of NOI margin.
Whole store.
Whole store. Again, here, the impact of Lok'nStore is really driving that because, as I mentioned earlier, it's a mature portfolio, low occupancy, and therefore lower margin because it's still in ramp-up.
Okay. That's clear. Thank you very much.
Thank you. And we will go next to John Vuong with Van Lanschot Kempen. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions.
Hi, John.
Just a follow-up on the Lok'nStore acquisition, just maybe slightly different frames. You mentioned that it is now expected to be earnings neutral. So what has exactly changed compared to your underwriting? Is it performing better than anticipated, or is this solely driven by the refinancing?
Yeah. This is Thomas here. So I think there are indeed two aspects. I think we see the biggest impact from the refinancing, which we, if you remember, a few months ago, when we talked last time, we were aiming at we were hoping to get in the region of four, but we were clearly not there, especially not when we were doing the underwriting earlier this year. So that is really the biggest part of that. But besides that, we also see a good performance of that. So I think that's a good combination, but the biggest part is coming from that.
Okay. That's clear, and then on the other store acquisition that you announced this morning, could you confirm whether the expected yield at maturity of 7.5% is net of the lost management fees that you're no longer getting?
Yes.
Yes.
Okay. Then on third-party management in general, now that you've acquired one store, do you see more scope for more owned stores? Or what is the strategy here going forward on third-party management?
The people in the room here are looking at me. I don't know why, but. So John, thank you for that question. So first, it's a bit early to give you the complete strategy regarding this third-party management. What is for us, it's a kind of not discovering, but due to the size, we're talking about 17 properties. This is quite significant for us. Secondly, if there are some of these properties who are, I mean, great location, great building, with a good potential or highly occupied, and in geographies where we have already properties, for us, if the pricing is delivering the returns we're expecting, it's good to buy. And one of those shops is typically the case because one of those shops, we allow us to do a cluster with the Farnborough and the Cambridge sites that we have. So you create more efficiency in your portfolio.
So that's much more than the fees you are making as manager of it. Having said that, we have partners, and one of them is Tyne. That's the name of one of our third-party management partners or owners, if you prefer. They have 12 properties. And we will assess with them the situation for the future and come back to you guys with and be able to answer better to this question with a full year disclosure by the end of February.
Okay. That's helpful. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. And we'll go next to Florent Laroche-Joubert with BHF. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning for this presentation. I would have two questions. My first question would be on the opportunities, on your view on the opportunities that you can see now in the short term on the investment market, and if you can give us maybe some additional colors on your pipeline for new acquisition in the short term. And my second question is maybe more on Sweden. So we can see that the trend is improving. Could you please confirm us that we can consider that this improved trend as sustainable for the next quarters? Thank you very much.
Yeah. Okay. So thank you, Marc speaking. So regarding your first question, so how the investment, or let's say the M&A market, is short and medium term. As we told you already a couple of times, our expectation is to see in the coming years, medium term, to see more early portfolios on the market due to simply the maturity of the industry, meaning that the owners, the industry is very fragmented. Most of the portfolios are in the hand, I mean, small portfolios or even properties are in the hands of their founder. These people now are turning to their 60s, and most of them are happy to cash in. So we are expecting to see on the bottom side more potential deals for us or for others, which is, I think, good.
And secondly, short term for the time being, or very short term, we have a lot to digest, I would say. But you never know what could take place. But I would say that the level of activity should be still decent for us in the coming 12 months. That's your part one. Secondly, for its question one, sorry. Secondly, for Sweden, yes, Sweden, it's really good news. If you look at the occupancy, but also the revenue trend, the Q3 is really positive versus the previous two quarters, or even, I would say, the previous four quarters, if you look at till 2023 and even more. So yes, we are positive, and we believe that Sweden will continue to pick up in Q4 of this year and also next year.
Okay. Thank you very much. That's very useful. Thank you.
You're welcome, Flo.
Thank you. And we'll go next to Andreas Thomae with Green Street. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning. So a couple of questions from my end. Firstly, could you give a bit more color, perhaps, on just how the like-for-like rate growth is composed of in terms of what are you seeing the quantum of growth in moving rates and then existing customer rate increases and how these trends are evolving?
Okay. You wanted to get, Jean, or?
Okay. Thank you. So, Andreas, so we don't talk like-for-like. We talk same store, of course. So on the same store, so first, we do not really disclose the numbers of the moving rate. What I can tell you is that regarding at least the ECRI, so the increase to existing customers here, we are exactly on the same pace than what I mean, intensity. So the level of increases to existing customers is the same as in 2023. And quarter over quarter in 2024, we are exactly on that level. So there's no real change. Meaning that for the time being, we don't see on total European portfolio of same store a decline of occupancy due to an increase of move-out ratio due to ending the application of these increases to existing customers. So we don't see that.
Secondly, on the moving rate, I would say that globally, it is also stable versus last year. We are exactly in terms of quarter year-on-year, more or less with the same kind of pace in terms of evolution of these moving rates. And we have some markets where we have to do more discounts than others. I would say that probably in Q4, the U.K., what we call the U.K. same store, which is London, to make it simple, will experience probably a bit more discounts to keep the occupancy up. And Germany will face also probably the same phenomenon. While other markets, we are experiencing less discounts. So in order to keep the occupancy around 90%, which of course helps the in place rate.
That's clear. Could you also maybe give a bit of insight into how moving rates are versus in place rates at the moment?
At the moment, they are perfectly in line with what in terms of spread. In the U.S., our peers, Extra Space, Public Storage, and others are disclosing that. For the timing, we don't. But what I can tell you is that it's perfectly in line with what we had last year. So it is stable.
Understood. And then my last question is just the earnings per share and neutrality from Lok'nStore as well. And you mentioned that large part of it is from just better refinancing terms. But I just wonder also because you've done some acquisitions this year beyond the Lok'nStore acquisition and after that. So how much of sort of income contribution is also coming from those other acquisitions which are sort of helping bridge maybe some of that earnings gap, which otherwise would have been negative?
Okay. So I cannot answer right away to this. It's true that we have not disclosed that through the non-same store NOI, but the non-same store, you have also all the backlog of openings and acquisitions we have done the previous years. So I cannot give you the answer right away like this.
Okay. Thank you. That's it from my side.
Thank you, Andreas.
Thank you. We'll go next to the line of Wim Lewi from KBC. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hi. Good morning. I've got two small follow-up questions, if I may start, with the acquisition of the managed business from Lok'nStore. So you explained there are 12 properties from one seller and that you're currently looking at cluster overlap. Yes? Hello?
Sorry. So from one owner, not seller, owner.
Okay. All right. Now, the question really is about this cluster overlap. Can you give an idea of what kind of percentage of that 12 would be the case and if that would then open up the possibility of a package deal, and then maybe why this deal was kind of isolated from that potential?
Okay, so there is no overlap except the one we have just bought because if we get the geographies of where the Lok'nStore, sorry, the ex-Lok'nStore, so the Shurgard outside London versus the Shurgard that we had as Reading or Wokingham and Cambridge, this owner called Tine, like the name Tine, Tine is passing by, there's zero overlap. Why?
Well, the stock has been on the market and it was in the hands of a single owner for reasons of succession within the family. And that's the decision they took, and we have been able to make that deal. And here, there was not an overlap, but a clear complementary geography versus the existing two Shurgards that we had outside London that were actually Cambridge side first and others a bit northern. That's why. So the decision here is coming first from the owner, who was a family. Sorry, because it's a family, and it was for succession reasons.
Then just a small to get the model right is, if I got it right, so the acquired stores from Lok'nStore, which you now consolidated for two months, they will enter into the same-store statistics after exactly one year. Is that correct?
One full year. One full year.
First August 2025.
No, no. In January, after one full year. The year is January 2026.
Okay. Fine. That's all from me. Thanks.
Thank you.
Thank you, Wim.
We'll go next to the line of Samuel King from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Just one follow-up, please, on balance sheet and funding, but asked in a slightly different way. You've clearly had a pivotal year in terms of external expansion, pipeline sizable, there's over EUR 1 billion of CapEx requirements, and at the same time, net debt to EBITDA is above the medium-term guidance of 4x-5x . Although I appreciate that's still at a comfortable level. But with deleveraging in mind over time and being a bit more specific on targets, it sounds as if there's scope to delever with, say, business-as-usual single asset acquisitions of around EUR 50 million per year, but at the same time, you're happy to keep balance sheet metrics ahead of that medium-term guidance for portfolio deals. Is that how we should look at it?
Yeah. So let's break that down. So the first thing, as John was saying before, we are very comfortable that we are returning to our really midterm guidance of 4x-5x net debt to EBITDA in the foreseeable future. And as John was saying, the main reason why we are a little bit outside of that at the moment is because the acquired portfolio had a very low NOI because it's still in a significant ramp-up. So we have two effects coming from pure operations. So we have NOI coming from the Lok'nStore portfolio. We have also the NOI coming in from all of our developments. So that will naturally drive down the net debt to EBITDA. And then, as you noted before, we have done the scrip dividend, which will also help us to bring that down. So that's what's happening there.
That means that we are very comfortable when it comes to future bolt-on acquisitions. And the main reason being is that typically we acquire more mature portfolios. So the impact on both our LTV and the net debt to EBITDA will be much smaller than it was. Now, ideally, it's almost neutral. That depends, obviously, on what the price we're paying, what we're getting in return. But as we always said, on the short term, short to midterm, we are feeling comfortable to be slightly above. The important point is we have a very strong rating, and we want to stay in that rating parameter for obvious reasons. So that's a little bit our guiding principle there. But we don't see that there's any concern with any of our normal bolt-on acquisition, which we have fully assumed in our plannings.
And I don't think that there are any other concerns about other slightly bigger transactions as well because we feel that should be also doable. And with the brands, we also have proven that we have access to capital market. We have diversified our financing sources. So we're perfectly comfortable that we have plenty of capacity to seize another acquisition if that will come on the market. So we're not limiting ourselves at all.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Sam.
Thank you. And we'll go to Céline Soo from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Hi, Marc. I've got two questions for you. The first one is on CapEx. Can you confirm how much CapEx you're planning to spend in total on the pipeline and how much is coming in 2025? And also, how much room do you think you have on acquisition with your LTV post-financing this CapEx next year? And the second question, Marc, can you remind us what is your current view on the need for an equity raise? Thank you.
Equity raise. Yeah. Can I answer the second question? So there is no need for an equity raise at the moment. And we have no desire to go there. As we said just a minute ago, we're feeling very comfortable on where we are on our financing abilities. The good news is that now really all options are available for us, not only that market, which was very appreciative of what we're doing, but obviously the equity market. But there's currently no need for us to go anywhere in the capital markets. So I take then any comments, Céline, on this answer?
No, no. That's okay.
I can go to the first part of your intervention. The first question. The pipeline-wise, it's pretty clear, actually. We have secured EUR 150 million of direct cost for 2025. That's what we planned. Meaning that on the top of this EUR 150 million, which is, I would say, organic growth, you will have when you look at the past, excluding this big deal that we have done with Lok'nStore and the series of three acquisitions in Germany, we take an assumption of EUR 50 million a year for M&A bolt-on.
We think that you can carry on this EUR 50 million on the top of the EUR 150 for 2025. Around EUR 200 million total CapEx for new square meters, let's put it this way. If you look at 2026, we have already EUR 270 million that are secured in the pipe. And this is potentially excluding also a bolt-on acquisition and another EUR 50 million that you could have in the year 2026. So being above EUR 300 in 2026.
Okay. Thank you.
You're welcome.
Thank you. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question on the phone line, it is the star and one. Again, star and one.
Now, we have a question from the webcast. Vincent Kuppens from Degroof Petercam. With the upgrade of the Lok'nStore guidance for 2024, does this imply that we can expect Lok'nStore to be already accretive by 2025 instead of 2026?
The answer is yes. Our current expectation.
Yeah. Second question. Could you share the latest EPRA NTA now, including Lok'nStore?
No, we haven't really updated our evaluation on that. We only do that twice a year, and we are currently in the process of doing that for the year and including Lok'nStore portfolio, so you will get an update on that at the end of the year.
Do you observe any evolution in customer demand with the recent higher pricing strategy?
So there is not a higher pricing strategy. I will start with this. I think it's a misunderstanding. What we have said, maybe you are referring to this question, is coming from Vincent, I think.
Yes.
I think you are maybe confusing with what we have said or we have not been clear enough, which is that we have increased our ECRI the past, I would say, two to three years versus what it was the past five to eight years. If you remember, we're around 10%. Now we're close to 15%. This is to existing customers, not to prospective and new customers. We don't see any change of demand.
What is also interesting to mention is that the real demand, which is the number of people that are looking for self-storage. They go on the website, they click on the page where you have a property, you have size of unit, and the price. We call this the SRP page, so the store reservation page. Here, the volumes are still, I would say, the same than the year before, the first store in all the countries. So I would say good news there.
Okay. We don't have any other questions from the webcast.
As a reminder on the phone line, if you would like to ask a question, it is the star and one. Again, star and one. We do have a follow-up question on the phone line from Florent Laroche-Joubert. Please go ahead.
Yes. I would have a follow-up question on the acquisition of Lok'nStore for 2025. When you say that it will be accretive in 2025, what is the assumption that you take into account for the occupancy rate of Lok'nStore?
Why do we say it will be accretive? Yes, absolutely. The assumptions are pretty simple. It's an NOI, which is covering the cost of the debt related to this. And the NOI is based on the growth of the revenue. This growth of revenue is based on the growth of occupancy, of, as I said, more or less 1% of growth per month, and having the confirmed synergies on the cost, which means the EUR 45 million for the first full year. That's why, for all, we are able to have a growth of NOI being clearly above the cost of financing.
Okay. Thank you. That was useful. Thank you.
You're welcome. Are we done, Caroline?
We are.
Okay.
Sounds good. Thank you all for joining us today. We look forward to reconnecting in this venue soon.
Okay. So thank you to all of you. And yes, thank you for being with us today.
We'd like to thank everybody for their participation. This does conclude today's conference. Please feel free to disconnect your line at any time.