Welcome to the Maisons du Monde conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one, one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. Alternatively, you may submit your question via the webcast. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, François-Melchior de Polignac, CEO. Please go ahead.
Thank you.
Good morning to all of you, and thank you for joining this call on such short notice. You have no doubt seen the press release we issued yesterday evening. We underperformed in Q3 2023, and we adjusted our full year guidance. I will first share with you a brief diagnosis of what happened, then move on to the implications for our full year guidance, and last, I will walk you through the incremental actions we are taking to adjust to this new environment. Then, of course, Gilles Lemaire and I will be delighted to answer any questions you may have. So, first of all, let me give you a look back on the past three months. July was a positive month. It benefited from extended summer sales until, in fact, early August. However, market conditions swiftly deteriorated after July.
Notably, consumer confidence, that had been continuously recovering for one year in Europe, started to decline again in August and yet again in September. This decline occurred against the backdrop of the resurgence over inflation concerns throughout Europe, driven by energy and food. In France, for instance, inflation went up again in August and in September compared to July, bringing inflation back into the forefront for consumers. In this situation, the home and furniture sector experienced the full effect of reduced discretionary consumer spending, resulting in decreased traffic, both in-store and online. This is clearly reflected in our performance at -9.4 in sales for Q3. To give more color on Q3, let me tell you that we experienced both traffic and conversion rate decreases in our stores at a mid to high single digit rate.
On our website, traffic was also negative, but the conversion increased by a mid to high single digit rate. Overall, stores sales proved more resilient than online sales. We had anticipated a difficult commercial back to school period, expecting consumers to further arbitrate their discretionary spendings at this juncture. However, we were anticipating a relative improvement at the very end of September and early October, fueled by our flagship Jours Maisons promotion. But in the first two weeks of those Jours Maisons, we ended up seeing a revenue shortfall in the order of EUR several million, both as a result of a weaker turnover than expected on the promotion itself and as a result of a lower traffic generated to our stores and websites.
This clearly reflects lower elasticity of consumer demand to promotions than what we have seen since the beginning of the year.
This is what ultimately led us to adjust our full year guidance, given the weight of our Q4 commercial plan. I will now move to the impact of those elements on our guidance. The adjusted guidance for the full year being, sales declined by circa 10% versus decline in the low to mid-single digit range. EBIT, EUR 40 million-EUR 50 million versus EUR 65 million-EUR 75 million, and free cash flow, EUR 20 million-EUR 30 million versus EUR 40 million-EUR 50 million. How did we build the adjusted guidance? If you do the math, you will find that a full year at -10% would imply a -10.3% in Q4 versus 2022. This basically amounts to a more prudent assessment of the impact of our various commercial initiatives for Q4.
It also translates into a Q4, even slightly more negative than Q3. This stance may look conservative, but of course, given the weight of Q4, we prefer to remain on the cautious side. Now, how does it flow through EBIT and free cash flow? Let us do simple math for both EBIT and free cash flow on the basis of the medium of adjusted guidance versus the medium of the initial guidance. Let's assume an approximate 50% drop-through of lost sales to EBIT and free cash flow.
We lose circa EUR 75 million of net sales, and instead of losing EUR 35 million-EUR 40 million, both in EBIT and free cash flow, we lose a more limited EUR 25 million in EBIT and EUR 20 million in free cash flow. This emphasizes our ability to stretch our 3C plan to absorb a higher proportion of top-line drop impact.
Of course, let me underline that all the teams are fully mobilized to do better by improving the execution of our plan and by enriching it. Now, indeed, after giving you the context on how it translates into our adjusted guidance, let me tell you what we are doing about it and some of the actions we are undertaking to address this weaker environment. Well, it will be no surprise for you to hear that we are even more committed to delivering and enhancing our 3C plan. We have been working hard on mobilizing the organization of customer, cost and cash. We are now basically increasing the momentum on raising the bar on all these initiatives.
For instance, customer, we are beefing up our commercial action plan, and it will include at least one or two major initiatives so far never offered by Maisons du Monde.
Allow me, of course, not to provide detail on a plan that must remain confidential. On cost, we had been strictly streamlining our project list. Well, we are now going one step further to challenge yet again and further this optimization. We obviously also stick to the optimization of our HQ, both in terms of headcount and in terms of rented spaces. And just for your information, we are in line with the optimization of the store network, with a netting of 18 net integrated stores reduction, of which five transfers to affiliated partners. Cash, further streamlining product list will save an additional few million EUR of CapEx for 2023, and we're challenging and optimizing inflow of imported merchandise as well as the suppliers' payment terms.
Now, after what I hope are some helpful information, and before we open the Q&A session, I would like to share with you my views moving forward. One, of course, the current situation is highly disappointing, irrespective of the fact that the deteriorating consumer conditions are impacting our sector across the board. This calls for an even deeper transformation of our company as we need to be ready for 2024 scenario, where these consumer trends are maintained. Of course, we are also aware of the fact that our solid balance sheet will be a key asset for the future. Two, I'm however, probably even more convinced of our ability to adapt and ultimately to thrive.
First, I firmly believe that our three C plan has initiated a cultural change in Maisons du Monde towards a more customer and profitability driven organization that not only helps us mitigate the adverse impact of falling consumption, but also will help us rebound in the future. Reinforcing and systematizing our three C approach will be a pillar of our plan moving forward.
Second, we have now a new commercial team with Christophe and Guillaume, and this commercial team is able to lead the customer, retail and merchandise evolution that we need. Some of you may remember how I expressed after my first month in the company, that I saw a clear improvement potential by unleashing the commercial drive of store teams, fostering a more commercial merchandising or adapting the offer to store clusters or locations. Well, obviously, our commercial team is now all aligned with this potential.
Third, there is no question our product range remains absolutely differentiating. Our internal know-how, the variety of our styles, all this is truly inspirational and powerful and represents, of course, our best asset for the future. Our first priority for the coming weeks and months is thus to deliver the best Q4 possible. The teams are 100% committed to do just that. Our second priority is to prepare a strong and realistic transformation plan that fully takes into account the current difficult business environment. As previously announced, we will share this plan with you in Q1. Now we are happy to take your questions.
Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. Please stand by while we compile a Q&A roster. We will now take the first question. One moment, please. It's from the line of Marie-Line Fort from Société Générale. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. Thank you for the presentation. I've got three questions on my side. The first one is: How do you explain this warning about result coming so late, as there is other companies in proxy sectors we are already communicate on divergent trajectory? The second question is: Where are you in the recruitment of your new CFO? And last question is about your plan that you're going to announce Q1 2024. I'm just asking if it's not too early, given the current economic climate, and without going too much into details, what strategy axis will this plan be based on? Thank you.
Okay, thank you for your questions. First one, what I tried to underline in my initial talk is the following point: We were observing all this year that whenever there was a promotional, strong communicated promotion, there would be a very strong impact. And indeed, what we had seen in September is that when we don't have that, there is an even probably very strong impact downside as well. So we were really counting on the Maisons du Monde to show a huge uplift of sales, and also in this way to confirm that the commercial plan for Q4 would also meet with as much success. So this is why, until we saw that Jours Maisons were not performing as they should, we were still confident we would be in our guidance.
And yet, as you observe, that a major promotion is just not delivering what it should, then of course, you reassess all your plan moving forward and you take into account that it's not going to deliver as much uplift as expected. So I hope it answers your question, for us, it was clearly the triggering point. Second, yeah, thank you for recruiting the CFO. Before I move on to that, let me, let me say that I'm sitting here with Gilles Lemaire, who is the acting CFO. And, we also backed up the financial team to make sure that we were quite strong and able to address the challenges and needs of this current, demanding period in terms of financial support and functions.
And yes, the CFO recruitment is well underway, and we have, let's say, a very satisfactory short list of candidates, and we'll definitely prefer to take our time and pick up the perfect candidate for this tense moment than go too fast. But yes, it's well underway. Well, you're saying it might be too early to announce a plan in Q1. At the same time, we are quite aware of the fact that given this tough environment, we have to make sure that everything that we want to announce and do on the operational cost side should be communicated and acted upon as fast as possible.
So yes, we are aware of the fact that we are going to design a plan in a moment, which is not the easiest one to project, but we believe it, it really is a necessity to do that in the coming months, and we're working hard on it, of course. Sorry, in terms of main directions, let me just emphasize something that you would have probably in mind already. You know, that I'm convinced that there is a big need for a back to basics, which is another way to speak about 3C plan, and it will remain a big pillar of our company, with really the necessity to transform our culture and all our operating modes into a more customer, cost and cash centric organization.
Thank you very much.
Thank you. We will now take the next question. The next question comes from the line of Michael Niemczycki from Rose Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. Two questions for me. I was wondering if you could just give us an update on the expected CapEx amount for the full year, for the full year 2023, as well as the expected additional financial costs post-refinancing of the convert. Thank you.
Expected CapEx for this year are clearly scrutinized and will be strongly reduced compared to last year and should amount approximately around EUR 40 million-EUR 50 million.
40 to 50?
Yeah.
Okay.
The additional financial cost, post refinancing, actually, we don't foresee any significant impact.
May I ask how this is possible for the financial cost? Because obviously, you know, the convertible had a very low coupon, almost zero, if I remember. So how is it that, you know, you don't expect a big increase?
No, we're not expecting a very big increase, but, you know, we, frankly speaking, we might want to come back to you on that one, if you want. Is that okay for you, Michael?
Yeah, that's fine.
Thank you. One moment, please. We will now take the next question from the line of Clément Genelot from Bryan, Garnier & Co. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. Two little questions on my side, if I may. So the first one is on the market shares and pricing. Are you seeing market share losses for Q3 and Q2, yeah, Q3, at least? And, what's your view on pricing being the real prices plus the promotions? My second question is on the gross margin. Do you still expect the full year gross margin to really be flat year-over-year, and with the same drivers? And may I be a third one on the October trend, is there any diverging trend in the first days of this month versus September? Thank you.
Thank you for your question, Clément. To be honest, I fully heard the two and three and third question. I could not really grasp the full of the first question. Market share,
The first one was more around the market share losses, and, what's your view on the Maisons du Monde pricing positioning versus the competition in France? Do you think that Maisons du Monde is still too expensive?
Ah, okay. Yeah. Okay. Thank you. So on that one, it's a good question because it's true, and you know that we have had to reflect in our selling prices the huge increases that we went through, not only with the freight costs, so this is clearly a reality. So what we are now working on is a combination, a balanced combination of increasing promotional weight, and at the same time, implementing tactical price reductions on products for which we have calculated and foreseen a good price elasticity. So it's clearly a permanent ongoing balance that we are trying to strike. I'm not sure we are too expensive, to be honest. That seemed to be one of your points. I did see price increases throughout the market, so we are not the only ones.
But yes, it is true that the way to accommodate the purchasing power pressure on our consumers is also to play on the accessibility, and this, again, we do by a balance between promotion on the one hand and tactical price cuts on the other hand. And I should add to that, that in terms of price accessibility, we also want to implement leverages that are not directly related to price itself, but we have also been exploring even more and leveraging even more such items as free delivery or or credit, free credit. And this seems to be working quite well, and yet allowing us not to have too many price changes that are often damaging. But I hope it clarifies at this point. I will leave Gilles to comment on the gross margin.
Yes, hi, Clément. Regarding gross margin, so, as you know, we have suffered last year with a huge increase in freight costs. And hopefully this year, we have seen this, the weight of this freight cost decreasing, and so we start to benefit from this. We have started to benefit from this. We know that we'll benefit even more in the coming months, and probably, and for sure in the year to come as well. So, basically, we will take the benefit of this price reduction, this cost reduction. We are also strongly negotiating with the freight forwarder to benefit from the best rate.
So this will help us clearly to balance, let's say, the negative impact of additional promotion in our gross margin. So to answer to your question, yes, we anticipate our gross margin to be flat or slightly positive compared to last year.
And then, Clément, on your last question about the trend. So as you understand from our guidance, we take maybe a cautious stance, but we clearly take the stance that Q4 is not going to be showing an improved or better trend than the last months is. If I have a look at the last days, you know, that's the more recent data I can give you. We certainly had the very beginning of October that was completely in line, unfortunately, with very disappointing results, including on the Jours Maisons. We have been already beefing up this promotion and operation with a number of different elements, and we have been seeing in the very last few days an improvement compared to that.
But again, I'm talking only about a few days here, as opposed to our view that we should consider Q4 being the same kind of not so good trends in consumption. I hope we answered your question, Clément.
Yes. Thank you.
Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one and one on your telephone. That's star one and one if you wish to ask a question. We will now take the next question from the line of Marie-Line Fort from Société Générale. Please, go ahead. Marie, your line is open.
Sorry. Thank you. I've got another quick question. I just wanting to come back on the Clément questions about market shares and to know how your competitors are facing to the same context to you. Do you increasing your market share, or is it, you know, is it a question of brand, collection? If you just can give us some colors on the market overall.
Okay. Thank you, Marie-Line Fort. And, Clément, I do apologize, I missed, that was probably the first part of your question. Sorry for that. So we have all elements to believe that we are stable in market share at this stage. I would say both online and offline. So basically, the market is not performing well. That's really for sure. And the, if any trend can be identified, it's a trend that we already know, that it's a more discount-oriented period. That's by definition. So that's the main guidance or indication I can give you. But overall, you know that we don't have any overall European panel that would be omni-channel and give us a clear view on the market share.
But the different hints that we get from different sources, online, offline, are suggesting that, at least in France, we are not losing market share, which is an indication of the overall, situation in the sector, I guess.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I would like to hand back over to François-Melchior de Polignac for final remarks.
Well, thank you all for joining on such short notice. Obviously, we'll be happy to go into some more details in now two weeks or so, with the official planned date for the Q3 communication. Thank you to all.
Thank you.
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.