Good morning, welcome to our earnings call for the second quarter, 2023. The second quarter seamlessly followed the good start to the year. After six months, we have significantly increased our operating result by 37%, and our net result by 49%. Bottom line, this leads to a net result of more than EUR 1.1 billion, and comes with a strong CET1 ratio of 14.4%. This very good performance is first and foremost driven by strong revenues from our customer business, including the tailwind from rates. Due to this strong development, we were able to more than compensate for additional burdens on the Swiss franc loans in Poland. With the additional provisions booked after the ECJ ruling in June, mBank has increased the coverage ratio to 75%.
This is a quite strong level, and the settlement program is progressing well, but the whole topic is unfortunately not yet fully resolved. Our strict cost discipline continues and has led to a cost-income ratio of 61% in the first half of the year, while our return on tangible equity increased to a strong 8.1%. Let me be clear regarding cost-income ratio and the return figures. We do not expect the half-year numbers to be reached for the year as a whole, and we expect a seasonal slowdown and higher LLPs in the second half of the year. The very good result, however, and the high resilience proven by the stress test, puts us in a position to reinforce our commitment to capital returns.
Based on the half-year figures and our expectations for the second half, we will apply to the ECB and the German Finance Agency for approval of a second and larger share buyback as part of our planned 50% payout ratio for 2023. Let's have a look at some specific business areas that are of special interest regarding revenue development. I want to dig a little bit into our strong franchise in the German Mittelstand. The first half of the year provides a strong proof for the excellent client relations of our teams throughout Germany. Based on long-lasting partnerships in core banking services and products, clients stick to Commerzbank as their preferred banking partner. This is remarkable because there is an intense competition in the market when it comes to deposit rates.
Clients, however, value the relationship with Commerzbank at reasonable terms higher than temporary attacker rates of some competitors. Secondly, I want to highlight our very successful electronic FX platform for Corporate Clients. Due to the strong export orientation of many German corporates, we have a strong demand for FX products in our client portfolio. Especially in volatile markets, hedging needs are high. With our advisory competence and our highly digitalized platform, we attract significant volumes from corporates and also from financial institutions. This is reflected in being number seven globally in FX, according to 360T trading platform, and comes with a three-digit million revenue stream for our Corporate Clients division. Thirdly, we have just launched our new asset management unit, Yellowfin. The team manages EUR 10 billion of assets under management based on quantitative models and behavioral finance.
The offering addresses institutional investors as well as Corporate Clients and wealth management clients. Out of the newly created entity, we expect Yellowfin to significantly grow the business and revenues. Lastly, I want to spend a few words on the development of our mortgage business in Germany. When rates started to rise last year, we quickly saw the impact on new business volume. Higher funding costs at still high real estate prices, filtered out a cohort of potential borrowers that simply could no longer afford to buy their own property. This has led to a visible dip in sales, but with slowly declining real estate prices and an increasing customer acceptance of higher rates, sales have picked up again and will hopefully continue to do so.
Overall, I'm quite satisfied with the development of our customer business, and especially with the fact that capital efficiency in our Corporate Clients division has significantly improved. Since we have presented our Strategy 2024 back in 2021, our RWA efficiency in Corporate Clients has been a top priority, and the team really got their arms around it. RWA efficiency has increased to a good level of 7.2%, and equally important, the share of low-yielding business is significantly reduced to 20%, already outperforming the original target of 22% in 2024. Systematic cross-selling and higher rates have driven revenues, and the teams paid special attention to those clients that were simply not profitable for the bank. I think this development is a clear proof for the successful strategic transformation of Commerzbank.
Another very important building block of our strategy is, as you well know, the business model for PSBC, with less branches and much more focus on remote and digital channels. I would like to share with you some important figures that underpin the increasingly acceptance and success of this lean setup. While we had some initial challenges when customers were redirected from branches to remote and digital channels, the situation is much more stable now. The average waiting time when calling our remote advisory center is now at only around one minute and is no longer a reason for complaints. At the same time, the introduction of our chatbot for simple and quick support has been very successful. Since launch in March, we can account for already more than 200,000 chats. Regarding products, I would like to draw your attention to our credit card business.
In the first half of this year, already 84% of new cards have been sold digitally. This comes with an increase of digital credit and card sales of 25% compared to one year ago. Finally, already 6.1 million of our customers use our digital postbox, which means less paper and less cost. In conclusion, our new business setup in PSBC is gaining traction. The strategic transformation in PSBC is on track, notwithstanding that further conviction of clients as well as further digitalization remains top priorities. All in all, the first half of the year shows again that we pursue the right strategy with the right priorities. Nevertheless, we would like to provide you with our financial plan and our strategic thoughts beyond 2024, following the disclosure of our Q3 figures on November 8th. A respective invitation will be sent out in due course.
Now let me share my key takeaways before I hand over to Bettina for the financials. First, we have seen a strong financial performance in Q2 and the first half of the year, and we are on track to reach our targets. Second, our continued focus is on the successful execution of our Strategy 2024. Third, we will apply to the ECB and the German Finance Agency for approval of a second and larger share buyback based on the current half-year figures and our expectations for the second half of the year. This buyback would be part of the planned 50% payout ratio for the full year 2023. Now over to you, Bettina.
Thank you, Manfred, and also good morning from my side. To summarize the financials, we again had an excellent quarter. With EUR 888 million, the operating results surpassed the already very strong first quarter. The net result of EUR 565 million reflects the increased tax rate in Q2. The ROTE reached 7.9%. While the full-year ROTE is expected to be lower, we are clearly on our way to reach our financial targets for 2023 and 2024. The excellent quarterly results are based on revenues that reached nearly the same level as in Q1, despite a EUR 347 million burden from legal provisions for Swiss franc loans. The main driver has been net interest income, which has grown by 9% from the already high level in Q1. It is EUR 652 million or 44% higher than in Q2 last year.
Conversely, commission income is a bit lower than last year due to lower contributions from PSBC. Costs have come in at EUR 1.5 billion. This is in line with our target. It includes the earlier increase of accruals for variable compensation as a consequence of the good performance. The cost-income ratio was 58% for the quarter, documenting our good progress. As with the ROTE, for the full year, we expect an improved cost-income ratio, but probably not yet on the level of Q2. The risk result of EUR 208 million is within our expectations and reflects the good quality of our loan book. The top-level adjustment was reduced slightly to EUR 456 million.
Based on the good profitability, the CET1 ratio has improved further to 14.4%, this is after deducting the accrual for a 50% payout ratio from CET1 capital. I will skip over slide 9, which confirms the very strong performance. With EUR 9 million, exceptional items are only minor, while we had a more than EUR 100 million benefit from exceptional items in Q2 last year. This leads to the underlying revenues, starting with the commission income on page 11. Corporate Clients has sustained its stable performance with a strong capital markets business, especially bond issuances. PSBC Germany is lower than last year. This is due to lower transaction fees in Commerz Real, which tend to be lumpy and the brokerage business. In brokerage, we have seen less securities transactions from our customers and have restrained on investment due to increased deposit rates.
For the whole year, we expect overall commission income to be slightly lower than last year. Now to NII and slide 12. Net interest income reached a new high of more than EUR 2.1 billion, well above our original expectations. All segments have performed well. Corporate Clients increased underlying NII by 11% compared to Q1, mainly due to higher average interest rates, while the deposit beta increased only slowly. PSPC Germany has a stable NII quarter-on-quarter from the underlying business. There has been a negative effect of EUR 30 million, resulting from the low level of mortgage prepayment. As most German mortgages are fixed rates, this is a rational decision by borrowers. In many cases, they can currently earn a higher return than the interest on their mortgage when investing in safe, fixed income products like deposits. mBank strongly increased NII.
This is mainly due to very effective margin management, in particular of liabilities boosting profitability. As in Q1, around EUR 100 million of the NII in Others and Consolidation comes from floating and short-term instruments at higher rates. It is partially offset in the fair value result. Additionally, the NII reflects the offsetting benefits from mortgage prepayments, as well as some technical items which might reverse in the next quarters. On the next slide, I will cover the expected developments in the second half of the year. Our outlook is based on an ECB deposit rate of 3.75%, and assumes a continued rise in the deposit beta that results in an average of 35% for the second half. We have also taken into account the ECB's decision to no longer remunerate the minimum reserves.
Based on these assumptions and the good H1, we expect an NII of at least EUR 7.8 billion for the year. This increase in our outlook is mainly due to the slower than anticipated increase of the deposit beta seen so far. Of course, the beta continues to be highly dependent on competitors and customers' behavior. We will need to constantly adapt our pricing and offerings to stay competitive. The sensitivity of NII to deposit beta remains high. A change in the average deposit beta of 1 percentage point in the second half of the year is equivalent to around EUR 45 million NII. Please keep in mind that there are some offset of the NII of Others and Consolidation, in the fair value result due to effects on interest accruals and payments of hedging derivatives. This is expected to be around EUR 100 million per quarter.
Looking beyond 2023, we will benefit from the rollover of our model deposits. At the same time, we expect further increases of the deposit beta and an average beta well above the level in 2023. In Poland, mBank has been very successful in effectively managing margins. We expect this success to continue in an environment where rates are stable to slightly declining towards the end of the year. Let's move to costs on slide 14. Operating expenses are higher year-on-year due to the general salary increases and earlier increase of accruals for variable compensation compared to last year. Compulsory contributions are lower, thanks to decreases in European bank levies and the Polish Deposit Guarantee Scheme. In total, we are below last year and on track with our cost measures.
As we expect variable compensation to be above last year, also due to the better results, we slightly adjust our cost target to EUR 6.4 billion. The next two slides detail the risk result. The EUR 208 million risk result is in line with our expectations and reflects the high credit quality of our portfolio and the resilience of our customer base. The risk result of Corporate Clients includes EUR 65 million for a one-off model adjustment. It results from the implementation of an improved calculation method for the loss given default in our risk models. There has been no noteworthy development in the portfolio, with the underlying risk result driven by a few single cases. The corresponding cost of risk on loans is only 21 basis points in H1. Our top-level adjustment has decreased by EUR 26 million due to recalculation based on the current macroeconomic scenario.
The remaining top-level adjustment of EUR 456 million is available to cover potential secondary effects in the next quarters. I will now quickly touch on group results and the tax rate. The operating result reflects the good revenues and ongoing cost management. Underlying revenues have increased again when excluding the burdens from Swiss franc mortgages. The Q2 tax rate was elevated by, to 38%, mainly due to the provisions for Swiss franc mortgages. I currently assume that the tax rate of the financial year will be remain around the 35% level of H1. The next slides cover the operating segments, starting with private and small business customers. In PSBC Germany, we see the ongoing adjustment to the new rates environment. As customers get used to the higher rate level, the volume of new mortgages has increased, leading to a stabilization of the book.
Securities volumes in brokerage accounts have increased in line with market moves. The flow of net new money has moderated a bit as deposits now yield more attractive rates. This manifests itself in the increase of the volume of call and term deposits by EUR 3 billion, where we offer competitive products to maintain volumes. Part of the increase is from transfers out of sight deposits, but the majority is new money. This leads to the performance of PSBC on page 19 and 20. PSBC Germany had a very successful quarter. Overall, the operating result increased slightly compared to Q1. Last year, PSBC had the benefit of a one-off tailwind from mortgage prepayments, while there was a headwind this year, leading to lower NII in Q2. The Q2 effect should be partially reversed in the next quarters and be roughly neutral for the whole of 2023.
Adjusting for the effects from mortgage prepayments, revenues are not lower, but in fact grew 6% compared to last year. Also, the adjusted cost-income ratio has been stable at around 69%. Nevertheless, we do not expect NII to grow in the next quarters, as the deposit beta will increase further and the effect from the rollover of model deposits are only slowly accumulating in 2023. On an operating level, mBank also had a very successful quarter. When excluding the provisions for Swiss franc mortgages, the operating result grew 28% compared to Q1. This is based on lower funding costs achieved by very effective margin management. The Q2 cost-income ratio, excluding the effect from Swiss franc mortgages, improved to an impressive 35%.
Following the ECJ ruling in June, mBank has recalibrated the provisioning model, adding EUR 347 million to the provisions for Swiss franc mortgages. This increased the coverage ratio to 75% of the outstanding mortgage volumes. mBank has been offering settlement agreements to customers, and the volume has increased following the ECJ ruling. So far, more than 8,000 settlements have been agreed. By making good progress on the resolution of the Swiss franc mortgages, further burdens can, however, not be ruled out. The next two slides cover Corporate Clients. In Corporate Clients, the overall loan and deposit volumes have been stable. In deposits, there has been a continuation of the shift to term and call deposits, which are now nearly 1/3 of the volume. Correspondingly, the deposit beta increased by around five percentage points in the quarter.
Due to the higher average interest rate compared to Q1, NII has nevertheless increased. Given that we do not expect a significant change in rates and a continuing increase of the deposit beta, further growth of the NII is rather unlikely in the next quarter. The Q2 operating result of Corporate Clients is 38% higher than last year, thanks to higher revenues, mainly from deposits. It is lower than in the first quarter, only due to the normalization of the risk result to EUR 169 million. The pre-provision profit has continued to increase strongly, reaching EUR 615 million in the quarter, a new high. Revenues increased with all customer groups and operating expenses have been stable. The cost-income ratio has correspondingly improved by nearly 10 percentage points to 45%. Finally, a quick look at Others and Consolidation.
Others and Consolidation reports an operating profit of EUR 158 million due to better revenues, mainly NII and lower costs. The reduced costs compared to Q1 are to a large extent due to compulsory contributions. As mentioned earlier, NII benefits from the low volume of mortgage prepayments and higher interest rates. While Others and Consolidation has reached an operating result of EUR 104 million in the first half, we stick to our guidance of a relatively low contribution, positive or negative, to the overall results of the year. The main strength factor will be valuation effects. Credit risk-weighted assets have increased by EUR 2 billion quarter-on-quarter. This is due to volume effects in the corporate portfolio and the booking of an additional overlay.
With the overlay, anticipated effects resulting from the ECB audit of our internal credit risk models are already reflected in the current RWA and CET1 ratio. Given the progress of the ongoing audit, most effects should now be covered. We have built additional capital thanks to the positive net result and benefits from changing of the currency translation reserve, as well as lower regulatory adjustments. This has more than offset the RWA increase and brings the CET1 ratio to 14.4%. This translates to a 436 basis points buffer to the MDA, well above requirements. Now to our outlook for 2023 on slide 25. Given the positive developments in Q2, we have improved our outlook in several dimensions. For the financial year, we have increased our outlook for net interest income to at least EUR 7.8 billion.
This is partially offset by some counter effects in the net fair value result. Conversely, we have lowered our outlook for commission income, which should come in slightly below last year. We have adjusted our expected cost base to EUR 6.4 billion, reflecting the anticipated improvement of our profitability that leads to a higher variable compensation. Our key steering metric, however, remains the cost-income ratio with a target of 60% for 2024. We have improved the outlook for the risk result. It is expected to come in well below EUR 800 million. The final amount is subject to the usage of the TLA. Further, we target a CET1 ratio of at least 14%. In total, we aim for a net result well above 2022 and target a payout ratio of 50% in line with our capital return policy.
As part of this payout, we will apply to the ECB and the German Finance Agency for approval of a share buyback based on the H1 results and our expectations for H2. Thank you very much for your attention. We are now very happy to take your questions.
Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question now, please press nine, followed by the star key on your telephone keypad only once. If you wish to cancel that question, please press nine, followed by the star key a second time. Please press nine and star now to state your question. The first question comes from Stuart Graham, Autonomous Research. Please go ahead.
Hi, thanks for taking my question. I had two, please. The first is on the share buyback. If I understand it correctly, it's just part of the 50% payout ratio, whereas I thought it was going to be 50% + buybacks. Why is it just part of the 50%? That's not going to get you to the EUR 3 billion-EUR 5 billion you want to repay. You said you want to get excess capital down. Just doing a 50% payout is not going to get excess capital down. That's question one. Question two is, can you just repeat again what you were saying on the divisional NII?
If, PSBC Germany, I think is EUR 610 million underlying, I think you're saying that's going to be flat in the second half. I think the Corporate Clients is EUR 690 million, and you were saying that's gonna be flat as, as well. Can you just re-repeat what your guidance there was, please? Thank you.
Sure. Good morning, Stuart. On the share buyback, yes, indeed. What we have now done is, given that we are in the run of 2023, we say it's part of the 50% payout ratio. That's to start with. I mean, we, you know, we are conservative, so we started last year with 30% payout. Now we are increasing that one to the 50%. And we are, however, a little bit advancing the whole thing by not waiting for the full year results in February, but already taking the H1 results and our forecast for the second half as a basis for starting the approval process with the regulatory authorities.
You can clearly calculate, if you take a 50% of the net income well above last year, and then you assume a certain dividend yield, that this should be a good volume, and we will take it from there. We always said that we really need to run and progress on our transformation, which we clearly do, and then we will consider next steps. On the second part, I mean, we have now seen EUR 2.1 billion of net interest income in the second quarter, which clearly took us by surprise because we thought it would be lower.
We now believe that there will be not a lot of movements on the interest rate level, so we, we assume that we stick with the 3.75%. If you then assume an steadily increasing deposit beta, and there the average is 35%, it means that on private clients and Corporate Clients, you will see some reduction in comparison to, at least the 2Q. On private clients, we still have the benefits out of the model deposits, but they are clearly only coming in over time, and the majority of the benefits are rather expected in late 2024 and beginning in 2025, because then the tranches come in, who are more attractive than the ones who are currently up for reinvestment.
Okay. Just back on the buyback. So it is 50% for the full year. This is just a timing bring forward. There's no chance it's gonna be you're gonna increase that 50% later in the year?
You know, I mean, everything which is related to share buyback is subject to approval of the regulatory authorities. We take it really step by step, and we first want to deliver on 2023, and we wanted to deliver on the second share buyback and we take it from there.
Okay, thank you for taking my questions.
The next question comes from Benjamin Goy, Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hi, good morning. Two follow-up questions and then one on fee income. Maybe just to double check, given the process last year. On the share buyback, you apply with a specific number to the authorities but you won't disclose it, i.e., we don't have to wait another two to three months, like with Q3 results last year. Secondly, on the Net interest income, you mentioned this EUR 100 million, just to clarify, that is moving from NII to other income in the second half, or is it potentially moving in the second half? If it moves, what are the conditions for it? Lastly, on the fee income, now with Yellowfin, you are relaunching some of the asset management products.
Are there also plans to do or to capture more of the economics in the more mass market, assets, asset management market? Thank you very much.
Okay. Benjamin, let me start with the fee income, and then Bettina comes back to the other questions. Of course, this is a good start with Yellowfin, for the asset management, and this brings us now also to the ultra-high net worth and the higher part of the scale. We are already doing this with our cooperation with Allianz Global Investors and third-party products from, from other providers, also in the mass retail. This is important venture for us at all. I mean, you have to recognize that some of the clients are now picking the safer option, given the rate environment. That's why the dynamic of the fee income in the mass retail is not as big as before. Yeah, this will equal out going forward.
We are already offering that and following that in, also in the retail, mass retail environment.
On the share buyback, yes, indeed. I mean, we are actually, we can only reveal the number when we got the approval. The regulatory authorities are pretty clear on that point. As such, I think everybody can calculate, and I, if I recall, consensus on expectations, and the average of the expected share buyback, I think, you all got a good number in total. We are applying for it, and we have a three to five months time where we need to wait for the approval. Perhaps it goes faster, and we will definitely update you after our Q3 results on the progress of it.
On your second questions, I think you, it was related to the net, the negative with respect to fair value, with us. What we have on Others and Consolidation, we have in the treasury very positive effects on the NII side, but they are basically at least, partly, balanced out by, fair value, a negative fair value result due to hedging.
Thank you, thank you. A quick follow-up, the agreement with Allianz, how long does it run currently?
I mean, this, we have already very, very long, this relationship with Allianz Global Investors. It's already a long time, cooperation. Yeah, it, it contributes significantly to the fee income in the PSBC. This is nothing new. This is a very long-established relationship, and this is one part of the offering next to other third-party product providers.
Sorry, what was, it was more forward-looking. When is the renewal potentially of this agreement?
Very long-term out.
Okay, cool. That's good enough. Thank you very much.
The next question then comes from Borja Ramirez, Citi. Please go ahead.
Hello. Good morning. I have two quick questions. Firstly, on the, on the share buyback, a follow-up. If I were to use the 2023 net profit guidance and based on, on the, the consensus, which is roughly around EUR 2.2 billion, I assume a 50% payout, so that's roughly EUR 1 billion of total distribution for 2023. If I were to assume a similar split between share buyback and dividend as per the previous year, that would be a buyback of roughly EUR 300 million-EUR 500 million or EUR 400 million-EUR 600 million. Would these assumptions make sense? Then my, my second question would be on the deposit beta assumption for second half.
It seems conservative, and I would like to ask what could drive the increase in the deposit beta? Also, if you could please provide some details on how it has been, how deposit beta has trended so far in July and early August. Thank you.
Yeah, thank you. I would say, roughly your calculations are not too wrong. They are pretty much heading in the right direction. What you should not forget is that when you take our net income, you need to deduct EUR 81 from it. Then also, we, and, and, and so therefore, the ballpark is probably not too wrong. On the second part, deposit beta, I mean, we are clearly showing, and there is a reason, that there is a high sensitivity on the deposit beta, because we can only take what we see, so therefore, the average 35%. We, I mean, the sensitivity is EUR 45 million.
If the deposit beta is 1 percentage point lower, you will see an increase, and the other way around. And we have seen basically in July and August, a constant slow increase, because we see competitors out there with product offerings. We are also out there on call money with product offerings for Commerzbank and comdirect. And also we clearly see that the treasurers of our corporations are still maximizing their own cash management, which you can clearly see in the shifts from sight deposits to call and term money, and that is also driving the deposit beta up. So constant and increase, and you can assume that in Q3, we still expect the lower average than in Q4.
The very end, the key question is, where do we end 2023? That's very much dependent on customer and competitive behavior. We feel very comfortable with the larger than EUR 7.8 billion.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Johannes Thormann, HSBC.
Good morning, everybody. Johannes Thormann, HSBC. three questions, if I may. First of all, again, on the share buyback versus dividend. Last year, we saw a ratio of 1/3 share buyback, 2/3 dividend. Will you maintain this ratio, or could you also envisage a 50/50 usage of the payout ratio or the payout amount? Secondly, regarding your risk cost in corporate, you just mentioned single cases and the model adjustment. If you could add more color to the single cases, probably to the different industries or countries where it happened, and the model adjustment. Also, some more details about what triggered this model adjustment.
Last but not least, if, as you mentioned, you're top, 10, globally in FX trading, if you could, quantify your FX volumes, so we get a rough feeling for that. Thank you.
On the first question, SBB versus dividend, I mean, I would say that we had a EUR 0.20 dividend last year. It's clear that we want to provide for an attractive dividend yield, we hopefully will see an increase. I would say that there will be a different split, probably more turning than in the direction of the SBB. On the risk cost side, we have ongoing audits on internal models, which you also see on the RWA side, and that's part of it. The single cases are partly in Germany, and it's, it's the industries which we also have listed in the appendix.
It's automotive, and, and, and adjacent industries where we see currently single cases. It's really single cases, so there's no real trend. Resilience of the corporations has been still very, very high, and we are very satisfied in the moment with the development, also in July. On the avi- FX side, I have to say, oh, it's three-digit number, volume number. Revenue number, sorry.
Three-digit revenue number. Okay, thank you.
Yeah.
The next question comes from Jeremy Sigee, BNP Paribas Exane.
Hi there, thank you. Just a couple of detailed follow-ups on the NII drivers. I wonder if you could talk about why the deposit beta sensitivity came down. It was previously EUR 55 million per point. It's now EUR 45 million per point. If you could talk a bit about that, that would be great. Then secondly, you mentioned earlier the replication portfolio repricing. I didn't quite catch what you said. You made a point about timing. It's sort of less strong, and then it's more strong. I think previously you indicated something like EUR 350 million-EUR 400 million a year benefit from that. I just wondered if that ballpark number is still right, and also if you could just repeat what you said about the timing on the replication portfolio. Thank you.
Okay, very good. On NII, why is the sensitivity, why did it come down? Very simple. We, the last time we related it, to nine months, the 55, now we relate it to 40, to six months. It's a little bit actually higher than last time because just interest rate level also went up. That's the whole reasoning, nine months rather than six months. On the replication portfolio, it's approximately EUR 110 billion is related, in private clients. We have an average duration there of something around four to five years.
The whole story is that if you look on the swap rates, et cetera, and development in the past, it's just that the tranches with the low interest rate environments are just about to come. The benefits out of that, of the reinvestments will, will come i n the coming quarter. We assume that you will see more already in 2024, and that will continue in the years 2025 and 2026 to a larger extent. That's the whole reasoning for it.
Is that sort of EUR 400 a year level a reasonable assumption?
Not for 2024. It's, it's piling up, right? What you, what you see there as additional benefits.
Okay, very helpful. Thank you very much.
The next question comes from Chris Hallam, Goldman Sachs International. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. Two, first, on ROTE for 2023, you mentioned you expect return on tangible this year to be lower than the 8.1% you posted in the first half. I just wondered if you could help me understand a little bit what drives that down sequentially, because if I look at Q2 X, the Swiss franc mortgage-related provision in Poland, your ROTE was close to 13%. The guidance appears to imply quite a big deceleration in the underlying momentum through the second half. Then the second, just another one on distribution, and obviously, it's a follow-up to some of these earlier questions. I guess the short question is just whether you want to reiterate the EUR 3 billion-EUR 5 billion target for distribution up to and including 2024.
You talked earlier in the Q&A about the approval request corresponding to the consensus buyback assumption, which I think was EUR 400 million. Maybe you can correct me if I'm wrong there. If that's the case, it does seem like you're running out of time because return on tangible and capital is at a level that points towards EUR 5 billion in total distribution, not EUR 3 billion. You've said before that approval takes three to five months. If you lift the 2023 payout ratio in November, it's unlikely those buybacks are completed before the 2024 AGM, and then you'd still be left with a very, very large payout ratio requirement for 2024 to get to the EUR 5 billion. Maybe just what am I missing in that?
On the ROTE, well, first of all, as we said, yes, I mean, we will see several things. One is, as we said, we will see a slowdown on the NII side. We expect lower revenues in the second half, also because of seasonal effects for the revenue side. Then, if you take what we now have currently with respect to the risk result, which is the EUR 276 million, and we expect something below EUR 800, this is quite a way which we still have to book. You also know that ROTE reacts very sensitive. Every EUR 50 million or EUR 100 million, up or down, are quite an impact on the ROTE.
This is just why we are so cautious. We think that we are on a very good track also towards the targets which we have published for 2024. On your second question, I mean, first of all, I'm more optimistic than you are. We definitely want to finish the next share buyback before our next AGM. This is why we do not wait for the full year results in February, the final ones, but why we do the application now, because we exactly want to close the whole thing before the next AGM. Then we, we, we take it from there. I mean, we are very much dependent on the regulatory authorities on the share buyback part.
I think we are very satisfied with the fact that we are delivering what we promised after the 30%, now the 50%. As I said, it's a step-by-step approach, but very confident that we will deliver against market expectations.
The next question comes from Anke Reingen, RBC.
Yeah, thank you for taking my question. The first one is with respect to net interest income and the fair value result. I guess it mainly plays out in, in the corporate center. If we think about Q3, I guess the NII, I think, understand this is going to come down, but does that mean the negative fair value result will be less negative? If we think about your NII could be above EUR 7.8 billion, how should I think about that being offset with a negative in, in the fair value result? Secondly, just on your costs, the new guidance, EUR 6.4 billion. If NII goes above EUR 7.8 billion, would you, would costs potentially also be higher than EUR 6.4 billion? Thank you.
Okay, let me start with the cost side. No, the EUR 6.4 billion is rock solid. That is what we believe. I mean, we still actually do an internal cost management related to the EUR 6.3 billion, but we already see that results are coming in very nicely. That's just a little heads up that we might end because of our low compensation with a EUR 6.4 billion. There will be nothing beyond that. On the NII and fair value side, actually, I mean, it's Others and Consolidation where we do not have the topic with the deposit beta.
What we basically say is that you can probably take the combination of the Q1 and Q2 and ONC and average that, and that gives you a good flavor of what to expect also on the ONC side for Q3 and Q4. That one has to be reduced by a negative effect in the fair value result of ONC by approximately EUR 100 million each quarter. The rest, the larger than EUR 7.8 billion, clearly depends on the fact on where do we end in Q3 and Q4 with the average deposit beta. If we are higher than the 35%, you will see less. I'm pretty confident that this, this will not happen.
If we are lower than the 35%, EUR 45 million for each percentage point, we come in lower. That's basically the mathematics to it.
But then the lower deposit beta would not come with a negative and fair value result?
No, exactly.
Okay.
That has nothing to do with each other. Yeah.
Okay. Thank you.
The next question comes from Tobias Lukasz, Kepler Cheuvreux.
Yes, good morning.
You're on.
Yeah, good morning. Firstly, on the capital distribution, again, I mean, you talked about a regulatory impact, basically, with regards to the EUR 3 billion-EUR 5 billion capital return target. I mean, if we look at the stress test, I mean, you improved basically compared to the 2021 exercise. However, you fell, or you are among a group of European banks who, in an adverse scenario, basically fall below the SREP requirements. I was wondering, you know, in the discussions with the regulators, what is, what is the idea you're getting from the regulator to that result? Does that restrict you in being a bit more, yeah, aggressive in distributing capital?
I mean, doing the cross read, if I'm not mistaken, there are other big European banks who also were in that group who came out at a below MDA level, but still target a more aggressive share buyback. I'm, I'm just wondering, you know, like, where, where is the difference between you, and potentially the others in the market? Secondly, on the deposit beta, I mean, there was a question before, but it would be very interesting, to understand, you know, if this, around 20% was below or above, what was below or above 20% in Q2, and how this really developed now in, in July, basically, and the first days of August. Very lastly, on the corporate portfolio, you highlighted a, a nice RWA efficiency gain, in Q2 further.
I was wondering, you know, like what happened there exactly in Q2 and what we should expect going forward in H2 and potentially 2024. Thank you.
Can you just repeat the third question? I'm not sure that I got that.
Sorry, that was on RWA efficiency gains, that you showed for the Corporate Clients segment. I was wondering what the change was, what the benefits are, and if there's potential more upside for H2 or 2024.
Okay, thank you very much. On the stress test result, first of all, I think we thought, we can be very satisfied with the stress test results because it shows that we have a good resilience. What you also see is, I mean, the stress test has been much tougher than the last one. The good thing is that we now also have good profitability to act as countermeasures, and that really smoothen some of the negative effects. I think that is a very important next step. I think, therefore, we can be satisfied with the results.
Specifically, if you look on the depletion with respect to risk results, where we have been pretty good, it shows that we have a very solid loan portfolio. Besides that, I mean, it's probably a question to regulatory authorities, how they treat the different JSTs, the different banks. I would say, we have been now through quite a journey. I think what the best we can do, and that's what we plan to do also for the next quarters, is deliver what we promise and continuously improve our profitability, and that's what we are what we are doing. Then I think the dialogue will become easier and easier.
I'm also pretty confident, that based on our forecasted results, et cetera, there is no problem to get, hopefully, the approval, from the regulatory authorities, but it's their decision and it's their timing. It's up to them, clearly. On the.
I might-- Sorry. On, on the share buyback then, I mean, with the earlier communication, I expected really a kind of extra share buyback, potentially to happen in H2 already, and then to see the 50% payout ratio on the 2023 results. If I understand you correctly, now, you potentially, you know, like, bring that potentially three, six months forward, your payout on the 2023 results. We will have more clarity with the 2023 result. We have an AGM. Is that then the time in next year, AGM, basically to discuss on a potential further payout and go for an additional extra share buyback, which then potentially pays out above the 100% earned in 2023? Is that a scenario which is likely, or are we completely off here?
Tobias, I mean, we really take it step by step, and we have been very wise to do so. We have seen different times before, so we just take it now step by step. We accelerated the next share buyback instead of having it, as I said, after the fully results, we now start with it already in the second half. I think that is an important signaling, and let's do that first. Let's deliver on the results, and then we take it from there. Then we also have a strategy update to remind you in beginning of November, and there we will probably also share more details on next steps. On the deposit beta, that was your question.
I mean, we had an average of 20% in the second quarter, means that we ended the second quarter on a higher level. What we currently see in July and August, and we are also out with products, is a constant increase, step by step. This is why, I mean, we are out with this average guidance of 35%, but it's a minimum number, as I said, the EUR 7.8 billion, which clearly shows you that our expectations that we will run above the 35% is very limited. It is rather the contrary, that we might end a little bit below the average of 35%. I'm closing with the RWA efficiency.
I mean, the development clearly has been driven by the tailwinds from the deposit side. That also helped clearly the RWA efficiency. By cross-selling, we managed, however, also to, yeah, I mean, have a lot of discussions with clients, and we exited also a number of clients, where we didn't see that we can really improve the RWA efficiency, but cross-selling was clearly key, and I would say we now have reached a very good level. We always said there will be always a percentage of clients in this bucket, smaller than 3% RWA efficiency, because whenever you start with a client or also seasonable, seasonal effects, you have clients where you have a good year and then another year where the client is not very active.
With the 20%, we feel pretty comfortable, and I would also say that we have reached a decent level on the RWA efficiency at the moment. We will still work on that. We have a whole team just concentrating to work on that, but I would not expect a significant improvement on that side for the end of this year.
Very clear, Bettina. Thank you very much.
The next question comes from Kian Abouhossein, J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Yeah, just some quick follow-ups. First of all, on the NII, your 2024 consensus is EUR 7.6 billion, 2025, EUR 7.7 billion. Just want to see how comfortable you feel around those numbers. Secondly, in respect to asset spreads, I know you don't give asset spreads by product, but I just want to see what is happening, considering clearly liability spreads have widened materially, the competition on asset spreads. If you can talk back book, front book, both on the mortgage side and on the Mittelstand side. Thank you.
Yeah, Kian, on 2024, on the EUR 7.6 billion consensus number for NII, we feel pretty comfortable. I think the only thing which you keep in mind, need to keep in mind is that we do no longer have the interest payments on the minimum reserve, which cost us approximately EUR 100 million. All in all, I think it's a good number to start with. On the liability or the asset spread side, actually, we don't see really a lot of movement. I mean, mortgages have been, the mortgage margins have been under pressure, still at an average level. On Corporate Clients, really nothing is observable.
Bettina, if I may just, just a quick follow-up since the end of the call. Just conceptually, I mean, Germany is known to be materially overbanked, and the betas are extremely low. Based on your forecast, but also I think clearly on analyst expectations, just holistically, can you put this in context, why that would be the case?
You, you mean that, you mean that, that the EUR 7.6 billion is the right number? I'm not sure that I get the question.
Oh, sorry. The, the betas today are 20%.
Yeah.
relative to your earlier guidance clearly for the year.
Yeah
Are significantly lower than expected. Germany is clearly overbanked, and quite fragmented still.
Yeah.
Just to put in context, why the betas wouldn't move. One would think conceptually, the beta should be much higher today than what we see today.
Yeah.
based on our forecast, but also your own forecast.
Yeah. I think it's just a slower development than we all have anticipated. Actually, we also all didn't have any experience with it because it has been now a long time in negative interest rate environment, and before that, interest rates have been at a certain level for a long time. It's just a new situation, and apparently, clients, private clients and Corporate Clients are adapting to it and probably slower than we thought. On the Corporate Client side, we really see still movements, as I said, from sight deposits to call and term deposits, which will drive further the deposit beta on the Corporate Client side up.
Also on the private client side, it has been slower than probably anticipated, but I'm pretty sure that we will reach the levels which we have seen also in years before. That was something around 35%-40% on average for the industry. This is, I think, also reflected in the consensus of the EUR 7.6 billion. I would say that that is assuming a deposit beta of around 40%, and I think that is a good guess and a good point to start with.
Super helpful, Bettina. Thank you.
Now we do have room for one more question, which comes from Vishal Shah, Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you so much for taking the questions. I think most of my questions are answered, but if I can just quickly check on buybacks again. Just, just in terms of the sequence of things, I think you will apply the buyback now, which should take about whatever, it should take about three months or so, and then you get the approval. Do you expect to start executing the buyback by the end of this year, or do you expect it to spill over the whole execution to spill over in 2024? If you could provide a bit of color there. Then the second one is a bit more strategic question.
You are clearly near the last leg of your restructuring, which has progressed very well, and the rates are probably close at the peak as well now. How are you thinking holistically about sustaining the business momentum going forward, which, which sort of, you know, ties into fees as well? Because now you have the new, you know, Yellowfin sort of carve out. I'm wondering if, if this is a step in increasing the fee contribution in your, in your revenue mix going forward. Is that fair to assume? That's, that's about it. Thank you.
Yeah, Michael, let me, let me answer first on your fee business. Of course, a much more detailed overview we'll give you on November 8, when we present a new strategy, and then we will elaborate in far more detail on the different revenue sources and what we're going to deal. It's clear, and it's obvious that we were a bank highly dependent on credit and interest, and the more business we can generate from fee, it is of highly strategic importance, and therefore we have initiatives like Yellowfin and others in PSBC, but also on the corporate bank, we're happy and supporting all fee business in initiatives. You're, you're rightfully saying that it is of strategic important that we develop and grow our fee business, but more to come then in November.
Yeah, and providing the timing or the. I mean, as we know, how much time we need through the approval process, preparation process, et cetera, it's fair to assume that start of the share buyback program, beginning of January, is probably a very likely a likely assumption.
Thank you so much.
I just heard that we are end of the call. Thanks to you very much for your questions and have a good day and a good weekend. Thank you.