Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the TAG Immobilien publication of interim statement Q1 2026 conference call. I am Healy, the conference call operator. I would like to remind you that all participants will be in listen-only mode and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. You can register for questions at any time by pressing star and one on your telephone. For operator assistance, please press star and zero. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Martin Thiel, CFO and Co-CEO. Please go ahead.
Yeah, many thanks, good morning, all. This is Martin. Welcome to our Q1 2026 earnings call. Let's start right away with page number 3 of the presentation, and I'm coming to the highlights. We think it's fair to say that the first quarter of 2026 was a very good one. Just looking at the FFO I that came out in Q1 2026 at EUR 49.3 million after EUR 44.9 million in the comparable quarter in the previous year. That's a 10% increase. This is definitely a good start into the year. Looking at some operational figures like-for-like rental growth in Germany, we came out at 3.3% per annum, which is quite good. In Poland, like-for-like rental growth also remained quite high at 3.2% per annum.
A strong start into the year from the rental business. Also the sales business developed quite well. Looking at the development of the net income from sales in Poland, we achieved in the first quarter of 2026 a net income of EUR 12.7 million. That compares to EUR 5.0 million in Q1 2025. Also the number of units sold in Poland in the first quarter was 658 units, stronger than in the same quarter of the previous year, so than in Q1 2025 with 592 units. Talking about the projects that we have ongoing, I think that's of course very much of interest. The antitrust approval for the Resi4Rent portfolio acquisition in Poland that we signed last year in August is still outstanding, but we really expect now shortly the decision.
We still assume that the closing will take place in the second quarter of 2026. This should now happen really shortly, and what we can tell you is that firstly, unchanged, we expect a positive decision, so an antitrust approval without any condition. Secondly, this approval is basically the only material outstanding closing condition. Once this approval is there, the closing will take shortly thereafter, about two weeks after the approval, we will have the closing. As previously communicated, we unchanged expect the closing to take place in Q2 2026. Second project refers to the sales business. Well, to make it short, we still look into strategic alternatives for ROBYG. Honestly, the main strategic alternative is here a potential public offering and listing of ROBYG shares on the Warsaw Stock Exchange.
This is continuing to be evaluated. Not really, you know, very different news that we can give you. Just to repeat what we have already said with the full year 2025 earnings call. Firstly, we are fully committed to remain the majority shareholder of ROBYG. This is not a strategic change. This is not a sell-down of the sales business. You know that we like this business a lot, that it makes for us a lot of sense to continue with both businesses in Poland with the sales business as well as with the rental business. Therefore, in all the considerations that we have, we are committed to remain the majority shareholder of ROBYG. A second comment, which is also important for us, this could be an opportunity, but it's not a must.
Therefore, if everything remains as it is, if we continue to be the sole shareholder of ROBYG, that's definitely not a bad outcome. Let's look where we end up here. These strategic alternatives are still being evaluated. Looking into the balance sheet, our NTA, as not unusual for the first quarter, was more or less flat, but a quite nice increase year- on- year with a 7% growth. LTV stable at a quite low 41%, but to be fair, that economically real LTV is more the performer LTV after the Polish acquisition. Once we have the closing of the Resi4Rent transaction, the LTV will be around 45%, which is still good. Even after the closing of this quite material acquisition, we are more or less exactly at our LTV target of 45%.
A little bit of outlook for the next earnings call, which is the earnings call for H1 2026. As always, we will have also a full portfolio valuation with the H1 figures. What we can give as an outlook is that we expect for the German portfolio a valuation result which is more or less in line with the two previous semiannual valuations. Just to remember, we had in H1 2025 a value increase of roughly 1.3%. In the second half of last year, we had a value increase of 1.8%. Somewhere in that range should be also the valuation result for the German portfolio in H1 2026. With today's results, we fully confirm again all of our guidance.
FFO I net income from sales in Poland and FFO II, this is fully confirmed. As said, as we still expect the closing for the Resi4Rent transaction to happen in Q2 2026, this is of course then very supportive for the guidance. Dividend payout is for the 2025 financial year, 40% of FFO I. Therefore we will have a decision next week in our AGM on a dividend for financial year 2025, which is EUR 0.40. As in the previous year, a scrip dividend option will be provided for our shareholders. Just to remind everyone, for this financial year, so for financial 2026, we'll have an increased dividend payout of 50% of FFO I.
That's it with the highlights. Let's move quite quickly to page number seven. A little bit more details on the actual results. Just repeating that FFO I had a quite strong development also quarter-on-quarter. Also comparing Q1 2026 with the previous quarter with a quite nice increase of around EUR 4 million from a higher EBITDA of more than EUR 5 million compared to the previous quarter, partially offset by higher financing cost of roughly EUR 1.3 million. Also on a per share basis, this was an increase quarter-on-quarter by EUR 0.02. Therefore we should be on a good way to achieve our targets in financial year 2026. Page number eight gives some more details on our Polish sales business and the FFO II.
Don't be confused that between the quarters, between Q1 2026 and Q4 2025, the result changed. As always, nearly always, the fourth quarter is the strongest of a year. Therefore as expected, Q1 2026 compared to the previous quarter was weaker. As said at the beginning, compared to the start into the year 2025, we're already better this year. This year we will have a similar result development as last year. Over the quarters you should expect growing results with the strongest results then coming into play in Q4 this year as most apartments are handed over towards the end of the year, as nearly in every year. Let's take a look at page number nine.
EPRA NTA, as I said, remained more or less unchanged compared between the both quarters. As I said, we expect again a positive valuation result, so this should support the EPRA NTA development in H1 2026. If you compare the NTA development year-on-year, so Q1 2026 with Q1 2025, that's quite a nice increase of 7% per annum. Page number 10 shows the financial structure. As said, LTV currently at 41.0%. Pro forma after the R4R portfolio acquisition, we are at 45.3%, so right at our LTV targets. Perhaps you've seen that S&P confirmed its rating BBB- with a positive outlook already in March 2026. Moody's has its rating Baa3 with a positive outlook since June 2025.
We are right now in the discussion as every year around this time of the year with the agency. In general, we should have on the ratings definitely a good development as our financial metrics are quite strong. Not only the LTV has in the meanwhile a quite low level also, and that's also shown on this slide. The net potential debt to EBITDA ratio stands at 8.6x and the ICR level of more than 6x . This should be very good financial metrics also to support further rating developments. Page number 11 shows the maturity profile. Just to explain, as we already did in the last conference call. We have indeed a quite strong current cash position of nearly EUR 1.3 billion at the moment, which is good to have.
A lot of that will be used firstly for the R4R portfolio acquisition payment price. That's around EUR 565 million. Our main maturity this year, convertible bond due in August 2026 of EUR 470 million, will be repaid from this existing cash. A lot of the cash that we have in the balance sheet is also designated for the purchase price payment of Resi4Rent and convertible bond. Still we are left with a quite sizable cash position, which is good as we want, as you know, to invest further in our Polish and also in the German rental portfolio. Let's take a look at page number 13. Development operationally of the German portfolio was quite good, especially very strong like-for-like rental growth. 3.3% in total.
That's for us, I think the highest like-for-like rental growth that we had in the last roughly 3 or 4 years. This was mainly driven by higher rents from or rent increase from existing tenants, which are basically much bigger increases, higher tenant turnover. This basic like-for-like rental growth, which is more or less a rental growth without any big investments, was close to 3%. That should be a very strong number. Plus the help of some vacancy reduction, we ended up at the 3.3%. Perhaps we've noted that vacancy in our German portfolio increased by some 30, 40 basis points in Q1, but that's a normal seasonal pattern. You will see in the following quarters that the vacancy rate in the German portfolio will go down, and we expect on a year-on-year basis a declining trend in vacancy.
As we started the year with 3.2%, you should expect that the vacancy rate at year-end is lower than at the beginning. That would be also in line with what we have got. Page number 15 gives an overview of the Polish rental portfolio development. Vacancy here in all the units that we have finished for at least 12 months ago, so they are now stabilized, that are on the market for a longer time, is still at a very low 2%. That should be a good proof that the demand is really strong. Rent growth is continuously there, we are currently at 3.2% in Q1 2026, at 3.4% and 2.2% in the years 2025 and 2024.
On pages number 16 and 17, we see some figures regarding the Polish sales business. I think I already mentioned that the sales results in Q1 were quite good. 658 units sold compared to 592 units in the comparable quarter of the previous year. Also the number of apartments handed over. That's on page number 17. With 311 units higher than the 224 units in Q1 2025. Finally, again, summarizing our statement on the guidance, which is presented on page number 19. We are confirming again all guidance for 2026. FFO I, the adjusted net income from sales Poland and FFO II should all be as expected and communicated in the past months. That's it from my side. Hopefully comprehensive and quick summary of Q1 2026. Thank you so far for listening, but of course, now very happy to take your questions.
We will now begin the question- and- answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the telephone. You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use only handsets while asking a question. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question comes from the line of Marios Pastou from Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, and thank you for the presentation. Just got one question from my side on the FFO guidance range. If we're now assuming the Resi4Rent acquisition completes at the end of the second quarter, which I think is predicated on one of the slides, do you still think you'll be at the lower end of the guidance range, or is there upside potential here based on your operational performance being quite strong so far this year?
Good morning, Marios Pastou. Thank you for the question. Well, firstly, you're right that when we issued the guidance in November last year, we said if Resi4Rent is closing at the end of the second quarter 2026, that would mean we are at the lower end of the guidance. Looking at the actual development since then, I would say there's a good chance that we are perhaps a little bit better, so more towards perhaps the midpoint of the guidance. Let's see. Let's have the closing first. Let's follow the development of the operational business in the next months. At the moment, it looks as if we are very comfortably positioned within our guidance range.
Okay. Very clear. Thank you.
The next question comes from the line of John Wong from Van Lanschot Kempen. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning, Martin. Thanks for taking my questions. Just looking at like-for-like rental growth in Germany is now ahead of that in Poland. If I look at the implied like-for-like excluding vacancy reduction in your guidance, it would suggest a normalization over the remainder of the year. Is this rent increases to existing tenants, is that linked to any specific mix people this quarter, or how should we look into this number?
Yeah. Good morning, John. As you know, we have a portfolio with several locations, so we're not so much dependent on two, three big locations and therefore also not so much dependent on two or three very important Mietspiegel outcomes. It's really across the portfolio. It's simply true that we have started the year a little bit better than expected. You know, I think our total like-for-like growth guidance, the upper range was 3.1%. Now we are at 3.3%, still very close to that. Yeah, good that we had this start into the year, but honestly, 10, 20 basis points more is perhaps not a, you know, a big deviation from what we originally guided. We're confident that we keep the good rate of growth in the remaining quarters of the year.
Then just on that 1.6% that you're increasing to existing tenants, to what level could this go in your portfolio, and how sustainable do you consider it?
At first sight, that's definitely a strong number. Perhaps don't read too much into it if, for example, in the next quarter it is more than 1.4 or 1.5. There's a certain swing in that. As we've always said, we own a very, call it normal German residential portfolio. Although we are located in what we call secondary locations, and we know since now several years that also in this location, the demand is very strong. It increases step by step. We have a portfolio where the rents are in only very few occasions above Mietspiegel levels because we have not had any big modernization programs in the past, so we can really, you know, go along with every Mietspiegel increase and increase the rent step by step afterwards.
Difficult to say where is the limit, but if you look at that again, in total, if rents are growing into the vacancy reduction with 3.3%, there should be room for improvement in the future.
Okay. That's clear. Thank you.
The next question comes from the line from Andrew McGrath from Green Street. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning, Martin. Thank you for the presentation. Two questions from my side, please. On capital allocation, you're at 41% LTV today, 45.3% pro forma post Resi4Rent, so effectively at targets. Your share price trades at a meaningful discount to NTA. I guess my question is, where does buy and buy equity rank against incremental Polish rental construction and further German acquisitions in your capital allocation framework today? That is the first question.
Good morning, Andrew. Firstly, to be clear, we have communicated that we want to grow further in Poland, especially in the rental business. We want to start and have already started construction of new rental units this year. It should be a construction start in total of roughly 2,000 apartments, and this will continue in the future. For this investment, there's no external equity needed. We have a quite moderate payout ratio regarding the dividend. It will be for this year, yes, a little bit more than last year, 50% FFO I. We keep the full cash, the full net profit from the sales business in the balance sheet. That very naturally allows us, you know, to grow the portfolio without hurting the LTV.
If we analyze the LTV development of last year, there was a quite natural deleveraging impact only from, you know, the result that we create. When it comes to German acquisitions, the most likely outcome is that we are buying here step-by-step portfolios of 200, 300, 400 units as we did in Q4 last year. By the way, we are still looking at the market, we're also happy to buy in Germany as we know the market very well, as we can easily integrate this in the portfolio. This is a more opportunistic approach. We have clearly Poland as a kind of benchmark. Why should we buy in Germany at, you know, lower yields compared to opportunities that we potentially have in Poland?
I mean, it would also not be excluded to buy a larger portfolio in Germany. It's purely numbers driven, but I think it's more likely that you will see the small acquisitions. Finally, if it really comes to a larger acquisition, whether this is Germany or whether this is Poland, again, like the Resi4Rent transaction, yes, this would be the only case where we look into potential new equity as we have done last year. You know, quite targeted moderate equity contribution that kept the LTV on a reasonable level. That's the only, you know, case that we have in mind. Let's say, a very strong growth driven by a large acquisition, that and only that could require equity.
Okay. That makes sense. To be clear, you would not consider a share buyback at this stage using some of your cash that would be net of the proceeds earmarked for Resi4Rent and then your convertible payback. You wouldn't consider a buyback with residual there?
No, not at this point of time. We think we have good growth opportunities ahead of us, especially in the Polish rental market.
Okay. That's clear. Thank you. My second question is on Polish vacancy, so specifically on the stabilized portfolio. It ticked up to 2% from 1.3% last quarter, I believe. Just curious, what is driving the 70 bps drift in the stabilized bucket? Is it just general market softness, tenant turnover, or is it something else?
This is purely tenant turnover. If you follow that with our internal reporting on a monthly basis, you know, any swing between call it 1.5% and perhaps 2.2%, 2.3%, something like that, it's very normal. If perhaps you remember that most rent contracts in Poland have a maturity of 1 year. For example, when we started a project some time ago, rented it out, perhaps a lot of contracts are ending to the same time after one year, so that in one month, a little bit more renewals, and in the next month, a little bit lower. Everything that is, let's say, around the 2%, is a very normal vacancy rate number, which is again, a quite strong one. A vacancy rate in stabilized portfolios around 2% is from our point of view, a good confirmation for the strong demand in the Polish market.
Okay. That's very helpful. Thank you, Martin.
As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. The next question comes from the line of Thomas Rothäusler from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Hi. Morning. A couple of questions. First one is on the Polish PRS market. I mean, just wondering if you see further players keen to divest, yo u know, wondering if you see further acquisition opportunities basically, and also what magnitude would you be willing to execute?
Yeah. Good morning, Thomas . In the Polish residential market, I mean, firstly, most landlords are private persons. Not that different to Germany, of course, you have also other institutional players on the market. I think in total, institutional landlords own currently around 30,000 apartments. This number is growing. A lot of these institutional owners are backed by private equity, their investment horizon is perhaps naturally some 5, 6, 7 years, ending perhaps not everything this year, but in next 1-3 years. There will be opportunities on the market, of course, we will look at that. Also to make clear, an acquisition like last year's Resi4Rent transaction with 5,300 units is unusually in size. We will look at such portfolios. That's very clear. We are a natural buyer.
These acquisitions normally should be perhaps of a little bit smaller size, but that could be a very nice add-on to the growth we have ahead of us anyway, because we're building on land bank. That's perhaps also important to repeat, it's not a must. We have a quite natural growth plan by building every year, let's say 1,500-2,000 apartments on our existing land bank with existing platform. If acquisitions are coming on top at good terms, then yeah, of course, we will look at it.
Mm-hmm. Should we see the planned IPO or the potential IPO as a way to reallocate capacity or capital from build to sale to build to rent? Is it correct?
Which would not be really a new strategy, right? As it is currently, we produce a lot of cash in the sales business, which is then, you know, more or less, flowing into the rental business. Whether this is then from proceeds of, you know, potential disposal of shares apart of that, or whether this is year-by-y ear via dividend that ROBYG or the sales business producing is basically the same. Of course, with a different timing, but the overall strategy, the overall thinking would be unchanged.
Okay. second question is on the Resi4Rent approval by the Polish authorities. I mean, assuming it would not get approved in total, how could potential conditions look like? Do you have any idea?
Firstly, to make this clear, we do not expect this. Therefore, we're not speculating about potential conditions because we think our arguments and our position is very strong. Yes, after this acquisition, we are Poland's largest landlord with then in total a little bit more than 9,000 units out of 1.2 million rental apartments in Poland. We are far away from a situation where we can dictate rental prices. Therefore, we are unchanged from the very beginning, very positive on this. We can understand, and believe me, for us, it's also very hard that the time has been extremely long. We are waiting now for the decision since it's eight or nine months, but hopefully, it's really coming shortly, and of course, we will inform the market once the decision is there.
Okay. My last one is on Poland rental markets overall. I mean, do you see any initiatives for rent controls?
No, that's not the case. Perhaps this is not the case because the rental market in Poland is definitely much smaller, for example, compared to Germany. As you know, in Germany, roughly 50% of the people are living in rented apartment. In Poland, it's around 15%. Therefore, when we follow discussions about the residential market, let's call it like this, it's more about perhaps a potential support for buyers of apartment, but not so much about rent controls. We don't really see here the discussion in Poland currently.
Okay. Thank you.
We now have a question from the line of Kai Klose from Berenberg. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good morning. I've got three quick questions if I may. The first one is on the B2S, the developer sale portfolio in Poland. If I followed correctly, you have estimated now or you estimate now this total investment cost of around EUR 2,300. If from memory, I said that was about EUR 2,200. Is this because of higher land costs and/or of higher construction costs you have already investigated?
Yeah.
Second question is Yeah, sorry. Please go ahead.
Sorry, Kai, if I interrupt you, but perhaps if I answered it correctly. Yes, we have, you know, always inflation in construction cost and land prices. Currently, this is still moderate, but the number that we are presenting here is really the actual construction cost for all the apartments, you know, under construction and in the sales process. That could also be a difference depending on which location is on, you know, under construction, on sale, and which land price the underlying location has. Therefore, there's a quite, you know, always swing from the product mix. That leads to the EUR 100 per square meter difference.
Got it. Second question is on the service segment. Could you indicate if we might see a bit of a swing or is there any stronger increase from higher energy costs that you then use or could use also higher income in your service segment in Germany? Is it or more coming through in 2027?
This is perhaps more something for 2027, but you're right. If this development, that would be something that would be positive with higher energy prices. I mean, we don't like to see it because that drives inflation and then increase input costs. That's for the energy business. As in the past years, that could be indeed helpful, that's more something for 2027.
Got it. The last question would be on page 22. You mentioned that the cash effective income tax in Q4 were at EUR 9.6 and EUR 4.9 in Q1 2026, this quarter. Could you just explain, is it this reduction because of your tax initiatives you had at the end of last year?
This reduction is because in Q4 last year, we had more handovers in the sales business.
Okay.
High tax burden from that. It's purely coming from higher tax expense in the sales business in Q4 last year.
Got it. Thanks.
The next question comes from the line of Stéphanie Dossmann from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Mrs. Dossmann, your line is open. You can talk.
Hello, can you hear me?
Yeah. Good morning, Stéphanie.
Hello. Good morning, Martin. Sorry for that. Yeah, most of my questions have been already answered, maybe a follow-up on the vacancy rate in Germany. I was wondering about the assets you bought last year. Have you been able to reduce this vacancy or, I mean, the increase in vacancy is driven by this portfolio or the other locations and so on? How much is the vacancy currently on the assets acquired? Maybe a second one, a follow-up on the price development in Poland and so on. What would be your expectations going forward and what kind of growth margin can we expect on the sales business going forward, please? Thank you.
Well, regarding the first question, first, it's correct. All the acquisitions that we have signed in Germany in Q4 last year have closed in Q1 or already at the end of Q4 or the 1st of January this year. There's also a slight impact from that. That could be out of the 40 basis points, perhaps 10 basis points. Therefore, it's got a little bit higher than it is increase in vacancy rate in previous years. As far as I remember, in the last 3-4 years, we always had an increase of, let's say, 20, 30 basis points in the first quarter, which is acquired kind of seasonal development.
Also, perhaps, some of the mobilization programs or most of the mobilization programs that we have for vacancy reduction is then more finished in our third or fourth quarter of the year. In the acquired properties between or some weeks after we have just closed the acquisitions, we don't see any movement in vacancy, and that's very natural. Therefore, the reduction of that will come perhaps even not in the next weeks, but more towards end of this year or in the course of 2027. Good to have this opportunity, good to have portfolios acquired where we can reduce the vacancy rate in the future. Regarding the Polish sales business, at the moment, it looks quite strong. The amount is there. Sales prices are even slightly increasing, and that's good to see.
Of course, a little bit unknown is the construction cost. Mostly perhaps a question also for 2027, 2028. The unknown is, of course, the development of energy prices. If you ask us, do we see already something like stronger construction price inflation? No, that's not the case. Yes, clearly this could happen, but at the moment, we're optimistic that we can keep our margins. Let's see how this develops in the next weeks and months. We receive clearly this question now more often, very naturally. One answer we can also give is if we are wrong, so if we see more construction price inflation in the future, we still have a buffer for that. We're operating to gross margins that are in many cases close to 35%. If these margins are weaker in the future, that would be still, you know, be a very profitable and good business.
Thank you.
Once again, to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone. We now have a question from the line of Kanad Mitra from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Hello.
Yeah. Hi, good morning.
Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I have a couple of questions. Is there a potential for a valuation uplift for the Resi4Rent portfolio acquisition, given that there have been 5 rate cuts in Poland, and you signed it back in August? That's my first question. The second question is, what is the potential EBITDA margin for the business, and what kind of margins can you help manage it in the future once it's integrated in the portfolio? Thank you.
Happy to answer this question. As you know, we acquired the residential rent portfolio based on a gross yield for rent that we expect for this year of around 7.5%. That should be, you know, for us a very good at reasonable price. Now it will come then after the closing, which is hopefully then taking place soon, first time for a valuation of the portfolio. In general, we are convinced there should be room for valuation uplift. The question is, are we really realizing this or part of this already on day one? Because the natural discussion that we will have with the valuer is that we, you know, more or less acquired the portfolio just recently.
If you want to, this is one of the advantages that we have, that we have a longer period between signing and hopefully soon coming closing. It's between August and today. Indeed, there have been interest rates cut. Yes, there's potential, but honestly, I just can speculate about this. We have obviously no valuation results yet. In general, if let's take a more midterm view over the next 1, 2, 3 years, we should have a good valuation development, especially in this portfolio. The EBITDA margin should be quite high, or let's be more specific, the incremental EBITDA margin. We got it already for 80% EBITDA margin because we're taking here over the portfolio, plus also some people that would help us with the day-to-day business. We're not taking over management.
We're not taking over, you know, back office or administrative functions. We are fully integrating this into our quite strong team and platform. Therefore, this acquisition or projects that are finished in the future or potential acquisitions in next year will contribute quite strongly to the EBITDA margin from the rental business.
Thank you. Thanks for the answers.
Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Martin Thiel for any closing remarks.
Yeah. Many thanks from our side for dialing in, for listening to the call and for the questions. As always, if there's anything left, please feel free as to contact us any time. That's it from our side. Have a good day and talk soon.
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