A very good afternoon, and welcome to Mandatum's Q3 Audiocast. My name is Lotta Borgström. I head Investor Relations here at Mandatum, and I am pleased to be joined by our Chair of the Board, Patrick Lapveteläinen, CEO Petri Niemisvirta, as well as CFO Jukka Kurki. During this audiocast, Petri Niemisvirta will initially walk you through the highlights and key developments of today's report, after which we'll take the Q&A, where you have the possibility to dial in for any questions. You can also send us your questions through the chat functionality. Also, please don't hesitate to contact us at Investor Relations should you have any further questions. With these remarks, I would like to hand over to Petri. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Lotta, and hello, everybody from on my behalf, and welcome to this first-ever Mandatum Q3 result info, and of course, the first nine-month. So let me start with these highlights, and I will go deeper after these highlights to each area of upcoming slides. So, first nine months, strong assets under management growth, and it was mainly because of strong net flow, but also we get some help from the market. EUR 544 million net inflow and positive market movements as well. Stable fee result. We are...
I will go deeper to this, and very good net finance results, supported by increase discount rate, and related to that, also very strong organic capital generation of EUR 233 million. In addition to that, pro forma Solvency II ratio improve further from June to 237%, from 225%. So very good improvement also on solvency side. And of course, successful partial demerger from Sampo. Mandatum was listed to Nasdaq Helsinki since second of October, as you all know. So now I go deeper to highlights of each area. As we all know, the market conditions during the Q3 were not that great, but still, we managed to achieve EUR 100 million net flow.
The sales was about EUR 50 million down compared to Q3 2022, but at the same time, outflow was EUR 100 million smaller than last year. So, we are. I'm pleased with that. We are very pleased with that, that even the market conditions were not that great, our customers were happy with our services, and our NPS remain in a very high level, and that's the one of the key reasons that our outflow was very small during the Q3. One thing which is important to understand is that Q3 is traditionally very weak in sales due to the holiday season. So basically, July and August are holiday season months in Finland and as well as in Sweden and Denmark.
So on those months, it's more difficult to collect money than other part of the year. So if we look at nine-month numbers, Mandatum net flows, as I already said, was EUR 544 million, which is 5.3% of client assets under management, calculated by the number from the beginning of the year, and 7% annualized. So I would not say that we are well above our yearly target to achieve 5% net inflow target, but it's we are in the right side of the number. The main contributor for net flow was once again Institutional Wealth Management.
Corporate segment was flat, and which is also positive that Retail segment, small minus and smaller minus than previous, the 2022 Q3. And the product side, especially fixed income and credit solutions were the main contributors. And as you might have already seen, we told to the market that at the end of September that we have reached EUR 1 billion assets under management in credit product area. So fixed income and credit products those were the areas which we really succeed during the Q3. And also, I like to highlight that cooperation between Corporate and Wealth Management segment, which is one of our key and core competencies and key issues for us, continued to be very strong.
So the cooperation is still going very well and deepening, to be clear. Year-to-date, assets under management up EUR 935 million, but only EUR 40 million in Q3, even though we had positive net flow of EUR 96 million. And of course, everybody understands negative market movements were the reason for that. So we didn't get the help from the market that much. But I would say that net flow process was during the Q3 good, having in mind the summertime holidays, not that great market conditions, and so many things were against us, but we managed to get more than 100% growth in net flow compared to 2022 Q3. Then, result. Strong growth on comparable result.
So strong growth on profit before taxes, which was driven mainly by increasing net finance result. I will go a little bit deeper to that. Q3 standalone was EUR 84 million, and EUR 105 million increase compared to Q3 2022. Fee result is well in line. If we look at the average assets under management in 2022, compared to 2023, we can see that there is a positive effect of in 2022 Q3 performance fee EUR 8.5 million, which is mainly offset by accounting effects in the same period of time or first nine months in 2022.
So, if we look at the underlying growth in our fee result, it's really in line with what we have announced, and if we compare that to our assets under management growth. The fee margins remain stable, and we haven't seen any big changes on that side as well. So, if we look at net finance result, investment return for overall portfolio was 3.6%, and it was above the cost of liabilities. And, during the Q3 increase in discount rate for unit-linked liabilities with with-profit liabilities was one of the elements to the good net finance result.
So, to put it more detailed way, what happened during Q3 was that the longer-term swap rates and also discount rate increased much faster than the short-term rates, meaning about 10 basis point increase in short-term rates, and around 40 basis point increase long-term rates. Which of course means that because while asset duration is around 3.5 years, 3-4 years, and liability duration is about 9-10 years, all this cause positive impact to our net finance result. So, that's the part of the reasons why the net finance result was so strong during Q3. And then if we go to organic capital generation and solvency. Organic capital generation was strong, both in year-to-date numbers and Q3 as well.
Of course, the most important thing behind this was net finance result in our own funds generation. Of course, a declining with-profit liabilities was the main reason for SCR reduction and also another big reason for our organic capital generation. So, that led that solvency to its all-time high level, and pro forma solvency ratio up from 2025 to 237%, like I already mentioned before. So, very high solvency rate at this moment, and we are really happy with that as well. So all in all, many good things happened during the Q3, as well as the whole year has been quite positive. And that was my slide.
Now it's time for questions.
Thank you, Petri.
Please.
Let's move on to the Q&A. Tell operator, please go ahead.
If you wish to ask a question, please dial star five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial star five again on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Jakob Brink from Nordea. Please go ahead.
... Thank you, and good afternoon, and thank you for the presentation. If I can start, please, with where you started as well on the Net Flow. You said that it was typically soft during summer or Q3 due to summer. I remember in a previous presentation you mentioned that typically Net Flow was back-end loaded in the year. So should we, everything else equal, expect a fairly large pickup in Q4?
At least what is certain is that it has been very long period of time in the history that Q3 is always weaker than other periods because of the summer months. So, not commenting our sales on Q4, I would say that Q3 is because of July and August, normally very weak. It was even weaker last year than this year. So seasonality, a lot of in our business.
Okay, clear. Then going on to the discount rate in the With-Profit segment. I did look at your slide, but could you give us what would be sort of the duration-weighted discount rate, please, at the end of the quarter?
Hi, Jacob, this is Jukka. To duration weighted discount rate, let me think about that a bit. That is... I need to find the discount rate first. We haven't calculated that one.
Okay, I can continue then with a few other questions then, if that's okay. Yeah, so looking at the With-Profit liability reduction in the quarter, I realize it's only one quarter I'm looking at now, but annualizing the reduction, I think it was 14%. Have you done anything extraordinary to sort of speed up the client transitions from the With-Profit segment to capital light?
No, no, we haven't done anything, that kind of management actions that we have presented you earlier. But majority of that decrease come from the decreased interest rates, so around 40 basis points. Sorry, increase interest rates, so around 40 basis-
Mm-hmm
... points increase in 10-year swap rates. That meant around EUR 50 million decrease in the liabilities. So that's
50 million? Yeah.
Normal volatility related to interest rates. Nothing, nothing special-
Okay
... behind the portfolio.
Okay, clear. Then going on to the own funds generation. I remember another slide you showed once, but not in this slide pack, I think. But if I take IFRS income in the quarter of EUR 68 million, and then look at the own funds increase, I think that's only around half of the IFRS income. You write in the report about two technical changes, non-recurring technical changes. Are these the reason why own funds go up quite a lot less than IFRS income this quarter, or did something else happen? Did the expected Solvency II result go up or something else?
One element is this if portfolio transfer. That explains around EUR 20 million of that, because own funds created by if portfolio was at the end of June around EUR 40 million, and now after we have created this portfolio transfer, that decreased to around 17.5 million euros. So that explains at least EUR 20 million of that difference.
Mm-hmm. And, and the remaining, was that then the technical changes?
I don't see any other technical changes in that sense, but of course, changes in discount rate and there are different curves used in the solvency calculations and in the IFRS calculation.
Mm-hmm.
This all always have some kind of impact also on those. So it's never the same, the changes in the IFRS result and solvency on funds creation.
Okay. Okay, fair enough. The next question is on the, what you mentioned in your introductory remarks, basically around the EUR 8.5 million. Could you repeat that? So you said last year there was a positive EUR 8.5 million in Q3, but did you say that was offset in the other three quarters of the year?
Yeah, that EUR 8.5 million last year, that was performance fee related to one real estate portfolio. So then, and that was recognized in Q3 last year. And yes, there was in a full year fee result last year, there was some offsetting elements like. And those were related to IFRS 17, like actual expenses were higher than expected expenses and also there was EUR 4 million loss component that we recognized last year, and that was related to old unit investment policy, which CSM at the beginning was zero.
I understand. Thank you. And then last question from my side, if I look at the development in the CSM, could you maybe in the quarter put a few words on that, please?
Yes. Majority of that CSM growth, year-to-date growth comes from the increased AUM, unit link AUM, and the investment return or asset return related to those unit link assets that has been higher than expected in those cash flows projections, and that increased also expected future fee income, and that is recognized in CSM. But when it comes to quarterly, it's again the portfolio that is decreasing the CSM. It was at the end of June, it was EUR 40 million roughly, and only EUR 10 million at the end of September.
Mm. Okay. That was my questions. Thanks a lot.
The next question comes from Hans Rettedal Christensen from Danske Bank. Please go ahead.
Yes, hello, thanks for taking my question. So I was just wondering on the insurance service result, can you say anything about the experience adjustment this quarter that affects the EUR 7 million figure that you reported? And then also, how should we think about the sort of runoff in the CSM? I think in the investor presentation you had during September, you said it was around 9% per annum going forward. Is this still the case now?
Yeah, it's the 9% that is the case still. No changing in that area. And when it comes to this EUR 7 million insurance service result and the fee result, there is recovering of that loss component. This is one part of that, but all in all, I... There is nothing so special in that area. Of course, there is always some deviation between actual expenses and expected expenses, but the best estimate forecast for the future is still the 9% from the opening CSM.
Got it. And then I was also, I guess, back to an earlier question on the net investment results and how we should sort of think about that going forwards, because it's quite difficult to estimate on a quarterly basis, given that there's so many moving parts. And then in your presentation, you say the unwinding cost is around EUR 17 million per quarter. Is the correct way to think about this then to sort of annualize that times 4 to get the unwinding going forwards? And then also, how should we think about, I guess, September end was almost sort of all-time high on the interest rate side. Now you've come a little bit down since that time. How will those two factors sort of influence the PNL?
Yeah, first, when it comes to unwinding, yes, it is EUR 70 million per quarter. For this year, you can use that as a... multiply that by 4, but when it comes to next year, that unwinding will be, that is related, depending on the opening with-profit liabilities at the year-end, and also about the discount rate. So if one-year rate is totally different than for this year, and if liabilities are lower than opening liabilities this year, then of course this unwinding will be also different.
When it comes to discounting, yes, we have when it comes to this presentation, this full presentation that we have disclosed to date, there we have shown liability sensitivity related to 100 basis points parallel shift, and it's for... At this point, the best way is to estimate the changes in short-term discount rate changes is to use, say, 8-10 years swap rate and see the changes in that swap rate, and then estimate based on that the changes in the liability side, short-term changes in liability side. But when it comes to long-term expectations, mark-to-market yield is pretty close to that level, the...
where at the end of June, so 6.2%, and that would be the basis which I would use when forecasting expected future result.
Okay, that's very clear. Thank you. That answers all my questions.
As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please dial star five on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Jan-Erik Gjerland from ABGSC. Please go ahead.
Hello, it's Jan-Erik from ABG. Thank you for the presentation. I have a couple of questions, and the first one is around initiative of new or net inflow to get to your sort of your target 5%. How is normally the programs or sales force sort of incentivized, or is it so that Q4 is easier to sell than the management products because of their tax incentive? Or is it sort of that there are issues where you can definitely sell more than normal because of the sort of the cost inflation and inflation, everyone has to spend more on different things. Is it easy, likewise easy to sell all your asset management and net inflow thinking this time around than previously? That's my first question.
Yeah. So, let me answer that. So, it's our sales force is... If I understood correct, your question is, is that our sales forces are all incentivized with variable compensation, and, it's very regulated how you incentivize your people. All our sales people, they have scorecards, which is built by so that they, they are incentivized for various things. They are not just the sales, and it can't be what you are selling because it must be that what is really fitting to customers, so in order to avoid mis-selling. And it's also the customers' NPS, and it's inflow, outflow in customers' portfolios and so on. So there are various components in the incentivization.
Of course, the sales is the big thing, but we, what we want our people to do is that they are selling things that we are fitting to our customers in different environments. So, I'm not sure if this is a correct answer to your question, but if there's something else you want to know, please just repeat your question or
No, it was more also about if there are any programs or special products you are about to sell this fall, so to speak, that will sort of help you to pick up the speed on the net inflow versus your 5% target.
Yeah. I think we are nothing special, really, but it's... We are really happy with our offering and our products, and I guess it's, it's—there's a lot of things also in the market that one thing is even though we have really good product fit in this market, in senior loans, Nordic High Yield, fixed income and credit products, largely. I think it's also good to remind that when it's very turbulent market, customers are more cautious to make decisions, and they want to like to stay with the existing providers. But it's, we are really happy with our offering now, and we are not planning in the short term to change our offering to our customers.
So we believe that with this offering, we can reach the targets we are... We have announced.
Okay. Thank you. When it comes to the fee results, you said something about a performance fee in the last year, Q3. But is it any special in this year, quarterly Q3 figures, so EUR 8.5 million, or is it just that it's a technical issue here? Or how should you read those two, EUR 8.5 million? Is it the same number, or is it anything special in this year quarter?
No, there was nothing, nothing special this year, this year quarters and this, we don't have much that kind of funds or investment baskets, which has performance fees. So that was really one-off item last year.
Okay. Then I understand it. When it comes to your sort of real estate funds, I heard issues about real estate funds, sort of pulling back, having more difficulties to see outflow, and they have to sell assets to get outflow, et cetera. So how should we read your commercial real estate funds or real estate funds, which I saw a lot about, when it comes to managing the customer's portfolio in a prudent way, so to speak? How should you read those difficulties in other funds into your portfolio? Is it any special with your portfolio, which is different than the market, or are you very good at managing these real estate funds? If you could help us on that one.
... Jan-Erik. Hi, it's Patrick here, so I will take that question. So of course, we all know what is going on in the real estate market in on the Nordic level, and we are in pretty much the same situation. We think that we have a good product, and it's only, I think it's EUR 280 million out of our assets under management, so it will not have a significant impact on anything. But of course, we are monitoring the situation.
Okay, very helpful. Then finally, just a wish. Is it possible to get even more disclosure on certain topics, especially around what, what Hans was alluding to on the With-Profit book, to some more details on the unwinding and per quarter, et cetera? I mean, would you also get more details back to the first quarter of 2022, more accurate restated numbers for IFRS 17, or will they never come?
That is our plan to disclose more information in coming quarters.
Perfect. Thanks a lot.
The next question comes from Jaakko Tyrväinen from SEB. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, Jaakko here from SEB. Most of my questions have already been asked, but regarding your fee business margins, you're stating and showing overall stable margin development. But could you talk a bit on the kind of a new business or front book margins, what you are seeing in order to understand the trends? Are you seeing tougher competition or is the product or the products that you are selling now, do those have lower margins versus your kind of overall book?
Yes, Patrick here. During Q3 and we haven't seen any significant change in margin pressure, really. So, of course, there's a tough competition, but it's more or less the same as it has been for a while. So in those product areas, we are really getting money and concentrating. We haven't seen special changes in fee side.
Okay, good, thanks. Then on the With-Profit investment income and the mortgage returns in Q3, could you talk a bit how the equity investments returned during the quarter, and what was the kind of a market change for the fixed income portfolio side? I'm not sure whether you disclosed those numbers for Q3, but at least I didn't spot them.
Yes, it's Jukka. So, listed equity return on Q3 was -6.2%. And all in all, as Patrick mentioned, investment return for the whole portfolio for this quarter was 0.5%, and fixed income asset return was 1.5%.
Excellent. Thank you. That's all from my side.
Then let's move over to the chat, where we have some questions. First, Kasper Mellas at Inderes, "What was included in with profits other result in segment reporting?
Mainly the insurance service result related to with-profit portfolio.
Thank you, and Inderes continues, "Your fee percent, that is fee income, slash average assets under management, was relatively higher in Q3 than in H1 in corporate and institutional segments. Is there any particular reason for this?
Could you please repeat it?
Yeah. Your fee percent was relatively higher in Q3 than in H1. Fee percent being fee income through average assets under management.
I think there's no changes. I guess there is no changes. To be honest, I don't know where they get that figure.
Okay, then let's-
But if, when it comes to fee margin, that has been very stable for each different segments. So, so more or less same as what we disclosed at the end of June, or in August, based on June figures. So no major changes, really.
Thank you. Inderes still continues, "What is the share of the With-Profit portfolio of the group's total market risk, CSM SCR?
Majority of that with profit portfolio's capital requirement comes from the market risk. So, it's close to EUR 500 million, this total with profit capital requirement, and majority of that comes from the market risk.
There's a question from Petteri Viita, then, "What happens to capital as you shrink your With-Profit fund?
Well, plan is to pay this EUR 500 million dividend target, and that is our plan, what to do with the possible excess capital.
Yeah, and it's Patrick. I may add that, of course, if we are releasing more capital, then, of course, we have stated already that this is conservative, the EUR 500 million, that then we, of course, will distribute more if we see that we have too much capital going forward.
We have a question from Antti Saari at OP: Could you give us the geographic split of net inflow between Finland, Sweden, and Denmark?
No, we don't.
Thank you. Then two questions from Sauli Vilén at Inderes. How much lower average fee levels you have in your fixed income products comparing to equity or alternative products?
I don't have precise number for that, but we haven't sold that much equity products lately and during the Q3 and this year. So in certain way, it's the comparison we are not making. Of course, alternative products are more expensive, and fee margins are higher in the whole industry. But also, the truth is that our fixed income products, like Nordic High Yield, senior secured loan, they are quite highest fee margin areas. So they are not that far away from, for example, alternative area. We are not that much selling, let's say, very plain vanilla fixed income products. And if I may continue, we disclosed earlier that, Ultra High...
Institutional and Wealth Management segments fee margin is 8 basis points, and this fixed income funds and this credit funds fee income is pretty close to that one, so that is stable also, that fee margin.
Then Sauli Vilén continues: Can you shed any light on your performance fee outlook?
Performance fees. It's like Jukka said before, when it was questioned about this one-off in 2022 Q3, that was really one-off type of... We don't have that kind of structures in our products that we—most of our products, they are just annual fees from assets, no performance fees.
Yeah, it's Patrick. It's only the private equity-
Yeah
... funds where we have some performance fees, and that's the assets under management. It's around EUR 300 million, so.
Then we have a question online. Please tell operator.
The next question comes from Michele Ballatore from KBW. Please go ahead.
Yes. Thank you very much for taking my question. So I have three questions. So, the first question is about the sensitivity. They're all about the solvency. In terms of sensitivity, so the equity market sensitivity, I mean, can we assume that this level of sensitivity is mostly due to the presence of the Saxo and Enento as equity stakes? If you can give me some more detail about that. So can we assume that if you sell those, this sensitivity will be significantly reduced? The second question is about the interest rate sensitivity.
I think, I mean, in comparison to other life insurance companies in Europe, I mean, where the interest rate sensitivity has become almost negligible, are you satisfied with this level of sensitivity to interest rate, or you plan to do something? And the third question is... Forgive me, I don't remember if you have. I believe you operate on a standard solvency model. If it's so, do you plan to apply for a partial internal model or some improvements, anything like that? Thank you.
Okay. Thank you. It's Jukka. So if I start with the last one, yes, we are using standard model, and we have no plans to use internal model. Majority of our capital requirement is anyway coming from the market risk, and we don't see any much benefit applying internal model related to that one. And when it comes to interest rate risk, and we have executed our hedging plan, and so. And we are happy with this position where we are now. And third one was the equity risk sensitivity related to solvency position. Yes, definitely Saxo and Enento are playing a quite significant role when it comes to that sensitivity.
Notice that when it comes to the sensitivities that we have disclosed, we have always assumed that also so-called symmetrical adjustment will change in line with those equity stresses that we have disclosed.
Sorry, so the symmetrical adjustment is included in this sensitivity?
Yes. Yes. So if we-
Okay.
Yeah. Good.
... Thank you.
The next question comes from Jan-Erik Gjerland from ABGSC. Please go ahead.
On the excess capital potential, you mentioned on the presentation you held in September that you were sort of maybe keen to do some bolt-on acquisition, et cetera. But how should we think about your prioritized extra extraordinary dividends when it comes to excess of EUR 500 million versus potential bolt-on acquisitions in terms of your asset management operation?
Hi, Jan-Erik, it's Patrick again. Well, we stated that we will look at M&A if we see some really good opportunities, but they really have to be value creative for us. So we will not look at M&A just to get the growth. So we are looking primarily that we are distributing capital back to our shareholders, but of course, we want to be cautious now because this is our first quarterly result presentation, and let's see then when we are presenting the full year figures where we are, where we stand. But we will of course look if there is something really value creative and... But I said also, I used the word picky, back in the Investor Day presentation.
Absolutely. Thank you for that clarity.
And then there is one more question, in the chat. Do you gain any revenue from Mandatum Trader platform?
Sorry.
Yeah, the question was: Do you gain any revenue from Mandatum Trader platform?
Revenues? Yes. Yes, we get revenues. That's the reason why we are doing it.
Okay, I think there are no more questions from the chat, so that is all from today. Thank you for joining us, and hope to see you back online on February thirteenth next year when Mandatum publishes its Q4 financial statement release. Have a good evening. Bye.