Good afternoon, and welcome to Mandatum's Full Year 2023 Results Audiocast. My name is Lotta Borgström. I head Investor Relations here at Mandatum, and I am pleased to be joined by our CEO, Petri Niemisvirta, Chair of the Board, Patrick Lapveteläinen, as well as CFO, Jukka Kurki. During this audiocast, Petri Niemisvirta will initially walk you through the highlights and key developments of today's report, after which Jukka Kurki will make a deep dive into the key figures and the reasoning behind them. Finally, we'll have a Q&A session, during which you have the possibility to dial in for any questions. The audiocast results presentation is presented by today's speakers. In addition, you can find the even more detailed investor presentation on our website, www.mandatum.fi. With these remarks, I'd like to hand over to Petri. Please, go ahead.
Thank you, Lotta, and welcome everyone to Mandatum's full-year result presentation. Let me start with our Q4 numbers, after which I will touch on the full-year numbers, and then I will go deeper to our business. Jukka will dive more deeply into our result in his presentation. The Q4 result was solid despite the decreasing interest rates. A really good sales activity, together with a consistently high level of customer satisfaction, contributed to a strong net flow during the last quarter. Our product offering was well suited to the market environment during the year, and Q4 was not an exception. There are no signs of weakening demand for our products or services. The cornerstones of our business during the last quarter were our own highly active and competent distribution, a strong product offering with a good market fit, and very high customer satisfaction.
They all gave us a good momentum during the Q4. Mandatum's result for the full year 2023 was excellent. When we look at the, look at the numbers, I'm really pleased with the fact that all the result components contributed to the growth. So not only the net finance result, but also the fee result and the risk result were at a very good level. As we have stated earlier, one of our most important target is the net flow. In 2023, we reached the all-time high number in net flow, over EUR 750 million, which is 7.3% of our assets under management. That is well above our 5% annual target, target. Also, our growth in our client assets under management year-on-year was 15%, reaching EUR 11.9 billion.
That is record high number as well, which gives us a good starting point for growth in 2024. The board's dividend proposal is EUR 0.33 per share, which is in line with the company targets. It is important for us to be a good dividend payer also in the future. If we look at how our assets under management developed last year, we can see that we started from EUR 10.3 billion at the beginning of the year. Our total inflow was EUR 1.7 billion, most of which was new sales. Our capability to gather money and new customers was extremely good last year. The outflow was EUR 1 billion and positive market movements, EUR 0.9 billion. Assets under management in total ending up to EUR 11.9 billion.
The highest growth in assets under management, as well as in the net flow, came from the institutional wealth management business. While all client segments contributed to the growth, the 21% growth in assets under management within the institutional and wealth management segment is something that I'm really pleased with. The corporate segment's growth in net flow was steady, 4.6%. I want to underline that even though the corporate segment's growth is not at the same level as for institutional wealth management, its role as a feeder is really important. Last year, 75% of the wealth management division's new sales came through the corporate clients. The net flow in the retail segment remained negative. The good news is, of course, that the assets under management in this segment increased by EUR 200 million, even if the growth was driven by market movements.
As I mentioned earlier, the growth engine in our strategy is the institutional wealth management business. Inside that business area, all client segments grew with double-digit numbers. The biggest growth came from our newest sub-segment, Ultra High Net Worth, both in percentages and in euros. Then over to different product areas. Our main focus last year was on credit products, where the growth was extremely strong, 67%. I'm also happy that our allocation products has positive net flows in every quarter during the year 2023. When it comes to the fee income, we can clearly see that the growth area last year was, once again, institutional wealth management segment that grew by EUR 4 million, whereas corporates and retail segments were more stable.
Despite the fact that most of our sales was related to credit and fixed income type of products, our fee income margin came down only by three basis points, meaning that we have had good discipline in our pricing. That is also one of our financial targets. Now over to you, Jukka.
Thank you, Petri. Let's dive a bit deeper into our, our result and other financial figures for last year.
Q4 result was EUR 46 million, which I call solid, especially when taking into account significant movement in discount rates, which increased the cost of liabilities. Full year result was excellent, EUR 210 million, which comes mainly from the net finance result, but all other result components were also higher than in previous year. Q4 fee result was EUR 13 million, and full year result, EUR 53 million, both clearly higher than in year before. This is partially explained by higher AUM, but also from higher CSM release and recovering of previous year loss component. Good to notice that in addition to this, Unit-linked pension policy, CSM increased by EUR 60 million. This, together with EUR 1.9 billion higher AUM, means that we could, in a normal financial conditions, expect fee result to increase.
Q4 risk result, which is not presented in this slide, was EUR 8 million, and full year result, EUR 18 million, both higher than previous year result. Good to notice that full year risk result is clearly above normalized expected result, and this is mainly because of higher CSM and risk adjustment release, which is partially explained by the sale of If portfolio. Year-end CSM related to risk policies is EUR 129 million, and we expect around 10% of this to be released annually through profit and loss. When it comes to net finance result, interest rates have gone up and down between quarters, but investment return has been positive in each quarter, and also net finance result has been clearly positive in each quarter.
With-Profit segments, asset return in Q4 was 4.1%, and cost of liabilities were EUR 144 million, including EUR 116 million cost related to increased discount rate. Q4 result was below previous year, excellent Q4, but good to notice that year 2022 result was much more volatile between quarters compared to last year. Full year result, EUR 149 million, is clearly above previous year result. No surprises when it comes to With-Profit liabilities and no material changes in run-off profile. Discount rate movement caused some volatility here, but portfolio behind these liabilities is decreasing as we have expected. On the right-hand side, you see material movement in discount rate during last quarter. One-year rate is now 3.4%, which is also the unwinding cost for current year.
This means totally a bit less than EUR 80 million unwinding cost for year 2024. Original portfolio's fixed income asset mark-to-market yield is 5.7%, which means that the spread between mark-to-market yield and unwinding cost is more or less same as it was before. Then solvency. Notice that all components related to separation and asset transfers between Sampo and Mandatum are now included into our official solvency position, so no separate pro forma figures anymore. Solvency ratio, 221%, decreased by 15 percentage points since September pro forma ratio. Main reasons behind solvency ratio movement is increased Symmetrical Adjustment, which increased capital charge of equity, private equity, and private credit assets.
Other material component that had impact on solvency ratio is dividend, which is now fully deducted from own funds, and which was also higher than anticipated in September. All in all, solvency position is strong. Last quarter, organic capital generation was EUR 37 million, which is less than in previous quarters. Capital-l ight segment did generate well capital also in Q4, but With-Profit segment generate less capital than in first three quarters. Full-year organic capital generation, 270 million euros, around EUR 130 million of that comes from own funds generation, meaning that we could create EUR 130 million higher result, excess result, compared to expected result that is already included in solvency to own funds. Majority of that comes from the net finance result.
Capital requirement decreased by EUR 70 million due to business evolution, which means that EUR 140 million capital was released if assuming 200% solvency ratio. Petri will continue with the financial targets. Please, Petri.
To conclude, I'm very pleased with our first annual result as a listed company. We are on the right track with our business, and we perform in line with our financial targets. Our core competencies are valid in the current business and market environment, and we have laid excellent groundwork for continuing our first full year as an independent listed company. This was all from my part. Now let's move on to questions and answers.
If you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial pound key six on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Jakob Brink from Nordea. Please go ahead.
Hello, and good afternoon. I have two questions, please. The first one is related to the net growth or the net flow in the Capital Light business. As you correctly mentioned, it was fairly strong for the full year, above 7%, but if I do the math for the second half, it looks to be just around 5%, which is in line with your sort of longer-term targets. Is there any reason for this decline in growth in the second half of the year? And especially the retail segment is a bit more negative than at least I had expected. It could be nice to get some more color on that, please.
Yeah. Thank you, Jakob. Petri here. So, I guess the main reason is still the seasonality as we stated of a Q4 result. So, the latter part of the year is somewhat weaker because there is a Q3 on that part of the year, and then the Q3 net flow was normal compared to any other year before. But it includes the July, August, and, I guess going forward, it will be in the future the weakest quarter in a year, because of the seasonality and a holiday season. So that's the main reason for that.
So it has always been weak because there's just no business on that much on that quarter.
Okay. There's no sort of signs of... I think some of the larger banks have mentioned this quarter that clients are taking more public funds and less sort of private funds. I know you have a public offering as well, but I was just wondering if you maybe see clients taking money into more deposits or, yeah, other public funds with other providers.
We haven't seen any softening in our business for our products and services, and so no signs of that in Q4. So Q4-
Mm-hmm
... was really like normal, like Q2 and Q1 when it comes to, to demand of our products and services.
Okay, fair enough. Thank you. Then, my second question on the hedging of liabilities and With-profit segment. I was just wondering now, of course, Q4 was quite turbulent with a massive drop in long rates. But I was just wondering if, of course, being an independent company instead of being part of the Sampo group, would maybe make you, what should we say, reconsider the hedging strategy to maybe take out more risk, or are you still happy with the current hedging profile, even though it does impact solvency quite a lot when rates comes down?
Thank you, Jakob. This is Jukka. Yes, we are still happy with our current plan, and we have no plans to change that. We have presented our hedging ratio in the comprehensive investor presentation. Now our hedging ratio is around 70%, and we are happy with that one.
Mm-hmm. Okay, very clear. Thanks a lot.
The next question comes from Hans Rettedal Christiansen from Danske Bank. Please go ahead.
Hello, and, thanks for taking my question. I was just wondering on or three questions from my, my side. I was wondering on the asset classes that you have in the original portfolio and looking into 2024, if you have any plans sort of in increasing the equities or other asset classes during 2024 relative to the credit that you've had growing in 2023. That's my first question, and then on the second question is on the breakdown of the SCR that you provide, where the market risk component is increasing quite a lot this quarter. So I was wondering if that's just related to the balance sheet transactions that were done between the quarters or if there's anything else sort of underlying there.
And then my third question is on your Solvency II ratio sensitivity, where you're providing a sort of two new sensitivities on the bottom of the table there, and on the equity component and the symmetrical adjustments. So I was just wondering what—if you could explain these two and your thinking behind including them. That's all for me. Thanks.
Thank you. This is Jukka. So first one, we don't have any material plans to change our With-profit portfolio's asset allocation. And notice that we... when it comes to group level, we still have those Saxo and so on. So we have some equity risk anyway, even though we have been decreasing equity risk inside With-profit portfolio a lot. So at least at this point, we have clear plan to continue the same way as we have done during last year. And then second one, main reason for the increase. If you compare the pro forma figures at the end of September, and now these official figures, which are comparable, solvency ratios.
Main reason for the increased capital requirement is the symmetrical adjustments, which increased the capital charge related to equities, private equities, and also private credit. And then third one related to the sensitivities. Now you are referring to, actually, page 26 when it comes to this comprehensive presentation. So yes, there we have two new sensitivities, and those which are in the bottom ones. First one is the base case. So what would our solvency ratio be if symmetrical adjustment would be zero? So that is. That shows that, okay, symmetrical adjustment at this point, because base solvency ratio is 221%. So if symmetrical adjustment would be zero, then our solvency ratio would be 226%.
The reason why we wanted to show this is that because symmetrical adjustment anyway creates some some volatility, some could say artificial volatility into our solvency ratio. We wanted to show also what is the base case if symmetrical adjustment is zero, and also to show sensitivity related to equities if there would be no changes in symmetrical adjustment at all. So then you would see that, okay, what is the equity, what is the impact on the equity drop if symmetrical adjustment would not buffer that type of stress?
Okay, thank you. That's very clear. That's all for me. Thanks.
As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Jaakko Tyrväinen from SEB. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, it's Jaakko from SEB. Regarding the international institution, AUM, I reckon that came down a bit during the quarter, during the fourth quarter. What was behind this, and what is the overall international other than the management at the year-end?
So can you repeat the latter part before I answer the whole question?
Well, the overall international asset under management in the year-end. Is that only in the institutional international AUM that you give out on your slides, or do you have elsewhere international asset under management?
Yeah. Petri here. So, yeah, it's—there's nothing special behind the small changes in our international business. So, nothing special to your first part of your question. So this international institutional is our international asset under management because we are only doing business outside of Finland with institutions. So, there is no assets under management somewhere else.
Okay. Okay, fair enough. Thanks. Perhaps a few words on your costs and your... What you are kind of budgeting in terms of costs, looking at 2024. Are you-- what kind of inflation you are seeing, and are you planning material increases in your resources?
Thank you. Thank you, Jaakko. This is Jukka. So I see that when it comes to listing and consequences on that, we have done majority of our. We are not any additional plan to increase our resources due to that. Okay, you all know that Matti Ahokas is joining us, but that's more or less only thing that we have left at this point. And yes, we have been focusing on growth for years already, and now it's also time to focus also on the efficiency of our processes and so on. So we will take a look also at expenses, but. And to be able to. Okay, that's also another focus area for this year. Definitely.
Okay, thanks. Then my final one, I'm not sure whether you already described this, but could you explain the key factors impacting the CSM release in the With-profit segment, and what should we expect going forward in terms of the With-profit CSM release?
Yeah. We made... This is Jukka again. So we made once a year we update our cash flow projections related to all portfolios, and during... And we did that during Q4, and that actually increased our unit-linked CSM, and but that decreased also more or less in the same with the same amount, With-profit CSM.
... So, but part of that was released through profit and loss. So that element in our result is something that you cannot expect to continue next year. So remaining CSM when it comes to With-profit portfolio is EUR 9 million, and we expect around 10% of that to be released during coming years. So that is the best estimate when it comes to that part of our result for this year and for coming years.
Okay, that's very clear. Thanks. All from me.
The next question comes from Jan Erik Gjerland from ABG Sundal Collier. Please go ahead.
Thank you for taking my questions as well. I have a couple of ones, if I may. Do you have any news on the PE stakes you took over from Sampo, any pipeline, or how we should think about that for 2024 or 2025? Secondly, you mentioned that the expansion into Sweden and Denmark is going as planned. When should we expect assets under management or net flow to increase positively from those two countries? Or how much have it contributed during 2023? The retail assets under management is down, as I said. What should we think, and how should we expect or model that going forward? Should it still be a small decline, or is it sort of going to be stable in your view?
Then fourthly, you said in your disclosure that you had either sold or is about to sell anything on the If P&C portfolio on the risk side. Is that already happened, or should we expect the risk results to be then lower into 2024 after the sale? And finally, the running yield with hedges on the with-profit portfolio, could you give us any insight to that? Thank you.
Okay. Thank you, Jan Erik. It's Patrick here. If I've understood correctly, your first question was the some PE from Sampo. Was that the question?
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yes. You have sort of taken over two two PE stakes, which you put on your book. So how should we think about them going forward? Is it something you consider to sell during this year, or is it something that you just want to keep until it is a better momentum to do either the one on three or one on two or the Saxo Bank?
Yeah, of course, that's subject to market conditions, and of course, as you pointed out, Saxo is the big one. That's EUR 300 million, and of course, we have also other shareholders in Saxo, as we are the third largest owner with 19.9%. But of course, we have stated clearly that we are seeking an exit path on that as soon as possible as the more subject to market conditions, and of course, taking consideration to the other owners. Then the other-
Yeah
... smaller ones, we will sell them when it's a good time, but they, everything is for sale.
Okay. Perfect. Thank you.
Yes, and, Petri here, I will take the question number two and number three. This international part of our business, meaning Sweden and Denmark. As you know, we don't have any substantial amount of own distribution or own people in Denmark or Sweden, so we have just in an early stage of our path there. So, we are looking carefully what shall we do in order to speed up the growth in those areas, but we are happy with this, the resources and investments we have put in those markets at this point. Our growth during the last year in Sweden and Denmark. And then when it comes to retail side and its assets under management, as you know, it's mainly Danske Bank and the portfolio from Danske Bank.
The question was how we should think about, is it growing, declining, or staying stable? I guess the right prognosis or forecast might be to look at it more stable. There has been lately quite a negative trend in sales, but also the customer outflow is quite small. As we have seen, last year was EUR 75 million negative net flow. But of course, the assets under management growth because of the market movements. More or less stable might be the right answer to that question.
Thank you. Can I just have a follow-up on the cost side on the, on the international expansion? Because I think Jukka said something about, or asked about the cost side. How should we think about your sort of investment or cost is in these two countries into 2024? Is it ought to be extraordinary high, or is it going to be, taken as an investment and written off over time? Or how should we think about your sort of investment or cost allocation to those two areas into 2024 and 2025?
We will definitely... I said that we will be careful when it comes to, when it comes to cost for this year, and we will focus also on those areas. But of course, we recognize what are, what are our focus areas and where we want to grow. So, but we don't have any exact invest-
... investment plan when it comes to those areas at this point.
Yeah, and if I may add, it's, we are going forward with this existing plan, what we have had, so quite modest investments to our distribution locally. So we have only three people in Stockholm and no one in Denmark. Your fourth question, that was related to risk, If portfolio. So-
Yeah
... we expect that is, that is agreed that deal, but not yet closed. We are expecting that closing will be in Q3 or Q4. And but that is already taken into account into account in our profit and loss. So remaining remaining CSM related to that portfolio is around EUR 7 million, and that will be released until the closing during this year. And we have also disclosed, and I also mentioned other remaining risk policy CSM, and that was EUR 129 million, and that is. That do not include If portfolio.
Okay. Yeah.
Then I partially missed your question five.
The running yield in the With-profit book on your asset side, because you add these hedges or the swaps or something. Is it so that the running yield is then higher or lower than the market we can observe in the marketplace? How... Just please tell me how I should think about the hedges on the cash flow profile, which you have shown us in the presentation.
Okay, you mean that cash flow profile. So, when it... Everything is calculated and recognized through fair value at fair value through profit or loss. So-
Yes
So, to be honest, I don't even know what is that kind of running yield for our fixed income assets. If running yield is something that you mean acquisition yield. So because everything is recognized at fair value, that's why we are only disclosing this mark-to-market yield.
Mm.
Then, okay, so what is the impact on hedges? That is included into this mark-to-market yield already. So of course, if when interest rates are decreasing, then hedges are helping us, helping us to defend a higher, higher mark-to-market yield.
Okay.
Yeah, Erik, it's Patrick here. Just to describe the nature of it, so it's really plain vanilla when you look.
Okay.
We are paying floating six months and receive fixed.
Yeah.
Thank you. That's all from my side.
The next question comes from Thomas Bichard-Bréaud from D'Artagnan Corporate Finance. Please go ahead.
Hi, and thank you for taking my question. I have a question regarding the change in assumptions in the CSM regarding the With-profits. In the past, we've seen some gains from the longevity reserves and now we see that it seems that you have reversed the assumptions towards the longevity. So I would like to have some more flavor on that and also on the change in operating expenses that you apply in the cash flows. Thank you.
Majority of that movement in With-profit liabilities and the changes, assumption changes, that was related to expected future expenses, administration expenses. More or less same amount than With-profit expense, expected expenses increased more or less same amount unit pension policies, expenses decreased, or assumed expected expenses decreased. So that is... We updated our costs and cost allocation, so that is the main reason. Did you have-
Oh
... another question also? I, I missed that.
Yeah. I think it was more on the assumptions regarding mortality, because in the past, we've seen some gains related to the longevity reserves that have been reduced. But now we see that the assumptions trend towards the longer longevity. So I would like to understand that effect and why it's been changed now and before.
Well, actually, we haven't changed our longevity assumption this quarter, at least nothing material in that area. So, also longevity result is... So, the actual mortality related to With-profit portfolio, that is very well in line with our expectations. So I don't recognize that kind of changes into our cash flow assumptions.
Oh, okay. That's... I'm referring to page 37 of the presentation, where it's mentioned that assumptions related to mortality have been changed.
Okay. So that is part of our process, that we annually update our assumption, but the main changes were related to expenses, not mortality. There is on-
Okay. Thank you.
... only very small changes in that area.
Thank you.
Thank you for your attention today. Please do not hesitate to reach out to us at Investor Relations should you have any further questions. With these concluding remarks, have a pleasant day. Goodbye.