I think it's 3:00 P.M. in Finland, 2:00 P.M. CET. I think we're ready to kick off. Good afternoon and welcome to Nordea 's Q3 2025 pre-close call. Please note that this call is being recorded for compliance reasons. This will be an audio-only Teams call, and we will keep you muted during the remarks and enable your microphones when we move over to Q&A. If you wish to ask a question, please use the raise your hand function. We'll enter into our silent period on the 7th of October, so please contact us before that if you have any further questions. Our Q3 2025 report will be published on the 16th of October. This call will focus on what happened back in Q2, relevant public data, and macro trends in our markets.
We will go through the macro indicators, the P&L statement line by line, and comment on capital at the end, as usual. The script will be published on Nordea s financial calendar web page. We would like to highlight that we will only answer questions related to already disclosed information, as well as publicly available data as of the 29th of September, unless otherwise noted. With that, let's turn to macro. Axel, please go ahead.
Yes, starting with interest rates. Norway and Sweden cut policy rates by 25 basis points in September. However, due to several rate cuts late in the second quarter, the decrease in average Nordic policy rates in Q3 will be around 25 basis points quarter-on-quarter. This is fairly similar to the average decrease we saw in Q2. Three-month interbank offered rates decreased mostly in Norway. Quarter to date, the average quarter-on-quarter decrease was 30 basis points for Norway, 17 basis points for Sweden, and 10 basis points for Denmark and Finland. In the equity markets, the development has been mixed. Quarter to date, the U.S. dollar-denominated MSCI World Index was 11% higher on average quarter-on-quarter, while the OMX 40 Nordic Index was 1% lower. On the fixed income side, the U.S. dollar-denominated Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index was 2% higher.
However, remember also to adjust for FX as our reporting currency is euro, and U.S. dollar was 3% lower on average quarter-on-quarter, hence reducing the index performance in euro. Further on FX movements, SEK and NOK versus euro are always the key currencies to track, and what's relevant for the P&L is the average quarter-on-quarter development. Quarter to date, SEK was down 1.5% and NOK was down 1%, presenting a headwind for euro-denominated income in Q3 and a tailwind for costs. Moving over to net interest income. As mentioned on the Q2 call, we will see a lower NII, but still resilient in comparison with our peers. In Q2, we reported an NII of EUR 1.798 billion. In terms of one-offs, you should adjust this lower as Q2 benefited by EUR 10 million from a lower deposit guarantee scheme fee.
In terms of moving parts, for average Nordic policy rates, as mentioned, the decrease in Q3 is expected to be around 25 basis points compared with around a 30 basis point decrease in Q2. As you can see in the NII bridge from Q2, the margin-driven NII was around EUR 100 million negative. As we've said all along, the later cuts come with a bigger impact as deposit rates start bottoming out. We did also highlight some pressure on lending margins in Q2, particularly in the corporate space. The deposit hedge contribution was around EUR 20 million quarter-over-quarter in Q2. Our disclosure on slide 18 in the Q2 investor presentation would indicate a similar contribution in Q3. For volumes, we recommend looking at the system-level volume data available in each country and would say there are no meaningful changes in recent trends.
There is a discount effect in Q3 versus Q2, resulting in circa EUR 20 million contribution from the one additional interest day. Finally, two new items to flag. First, please note that the average FX is a headwind for income in the quarter compared with Q2. Secondly, worth noting a small headwind from our recent Additional Tier 1 (AT1) issuances. In August and September, we were out in the market with a few sizable AT1 transactions in USD, SEK, and NOK with no corresponding redemptions. These two taken together are roughly a EUR 20 million headwind, offsetting the discount effect and should also be factored into your earlier estimates. With regards to pricing actions on lending and deposit products, these can be found on our local websites. To highlight some of the key pricing changes in the third quarter, first of all, no changes on deposit transaction accounts.
In Sweden, on basic savings deposits, a minor change was made mid-July with a five basis point reduction for amounts above the SEK 500,000 threshold. Following the rate cut last week, we lowered three-month mortgage list prices by 20 basis points from the 25th of September. In Norway, following both the late June and September rate cuts, full pass-through to customer prices on mortgages and most of our savings deposit products. Those come with the usual two-month grace period. With that, let's continue with net fee and commission income. Jukka, please go ahead.
Thanks, Axel. Moving on to net fee and commission income, we reported a good outcome in Q2 at EUR 792 million, and we indicated that Q3 was expected to be impacted by the usual seasonality and the market quietness we've seen. On savings fees, we already highlighted some of the market movements, which net after adjusting for FX and our asset mix point at a slightly positive market performance effect on average AUM in the low to mid-single digits. However, we also highlighted customer preferences for lower risk and lower margin products. Therefore, we entered Q3 at a lower margin level. Opposite forces are in play and it remains to be seen where it lands. Also, please remember to adjust for the semi-annual fees we had in Q2, which will not repeat in Q3. Q2 benefited from these by around EUR 10 million.
On brokerage and advisory, you should factor in that summer months are always seasonally slower. In the last couple of years, the seasonal decline in brokerage and advisory in Q3 versus Q2 has been between EUR 15 million- EUR 30 million. This is also reflected in the August Dealogic and MergerMarket data, which points at M&A being down by 40% and ECM being down by 50% quarter-on-quarter. Finally, on fee and commission, two smaller items roughly cancel each other, a positive discount effect and a negative impact from FX movements, as said earlier. Shortly on net insurance result, net insurance result in Q2 amounted to EUR 58 million, up from EUR 54 million in Q1. On net fair value, we generally have a stronger first half than second half, and Q1 is usually our strongest quarter in the year for net fair value.
We always think about this line being worth about EUR 1 billion a year, with the key contribution on the customer side being fairly stable at around EUR 200 million per quarter. Then you get the more volatile trading and treasury elements, which can be anything from EUR 0 to EUR 50 million in a quarter. I certainly don't expect more than that. We have been quite clear with these expectations on net fair value, but we do see that this has not been reflected in all your estimates. Emphasizing again, the normal outcome should be between EUR 200 million and EUR 250 million per quarter, and nothing points at that not applying for Q3. On equity method and other operating income, combined, it was EUR 9 million in Q2, and that same EUR 9 million is also the quarterly average over the past four quarters, and hence seems like a good base estimate going forward.
On costs, as said in the Q2 report, we expect year-on-year cost growth to slow significantly after the summer, and full-year costs to grow by no more than 2% - 2.5%, excluding FX effects. In Q2, we reported EUR 1.333 billion, which included some positive one-off items, such as a EUR 10 million VAT refund. We highlighted in the Q2 call that the Q3 run rate would be some EUR 20 million - EUR 25 million higher than Q2. FX movements will provide a partial offset to that. On credit, like we know, Nordea 's normalized loan loss level is 10 basis points, and we continue to have a significant management judgment buffer of EUR 341 million after releasing between EUR 20 million and EUR 60 million per quarter in the last five quarters. We've consistently said that with that overlay, we will deploy it if needed or release it, and no change to our intentions there.
On taxes, just mentioned in Q2, our tax rate was 23.6%, and year-to-date tax rate was 23.4%. Those levels are reasonable to expect for the full year as well. On capital, our CET1 requirements stood at 13.7% at the end of Q2, and CET1 ratio was 15.6% in Q2. Just to remind, though not relevant for Q3, there is the topic of the Finnish FSA reciprocating the Norwegian systemic risk buffer, which will come into force beginning of Q4, increasing our capital requirement by around 20 basis points. Also, just a reminder on dividend policy. Our dividend policy is to pay out between 60% - 70% of annual profits in dividends. While not strictly a policy, we have also indicated the ambition to have a stable to growing dividend per share.
In recent years, we have been in the mid-part of the dividend policy range, so clearly showing that we do use the range as appropriate, and hence you should not automatically expect us to be at the top end of it. On just a couple of other notes, as you know, we have our Capital Markets Day coming up on the 5th of November, and of course, we are looking forward to seeing you on site in London. I hope you'll be able to make it. To close off, just repeating that our third quarter report will be released on the 16th of October, and our silent period starts on the 7th of October. If you have further questions, feel free to contact us before that. With that, let's move over to Q&A.
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Great, thank you. I wanted to follow up on the dividend policy. There's been some discussions around paying interim dividends. Could you just update on your latest sort of thoughts or communications there, and if you were to look at interim dividends, would that, are you thinking a simple split, or would you sort of have a bi-annual profit pool to distribute?
No changes to what we've been saying. A question that pops up relatively often, not necessarily from investors as feedback for us as such, is what we have said is that we've looked at interim dividends in the past as well, and as usual, we listen to our shareholders and their feedback on the topic. From that sense, it's maybe a bit kind of premature to start talking about details too much. I think what we have said is that if we would look at interim dividends, we'd probably look at more the European bank model rather than maybe the local model of delaying dividend payment and paying it in various installments. That we have said, but in terms of anything concrete on the topic, we have not communicated or made any decisions on that.
Just to be clear, that European model would be paying the dividend on the basis of sort of preceding six months' earnings?
Yeah, so basically paying an advance distribution for the full year dividend. That's correct. Rather than delaying the dividend payment over several installments. As I said, it's quite hypothetical for us as we have not communicated any changes on that front.
Okay, just those two dividends could then be different in the year, right? You would evaluate the interim dividends based on what earnings have been delivered in that period specifically, rather than just splitting it into halves.
I wouldn't speculate too much further on that. If, as I said, we think about potentially the advance payment for the full year dividend, it might be difficult to land exactly on what the dividend for the full year is at the halfway mark as such. Yes, there would be some other mechanism of determining how that would go. Ultimately, as I said, no decisions, no updates on this, so all very hypothetical from that perspective.
Thank you.
Thanks, Jacob. Magnus, go ahead.
Yes, hi. First of all, on the headwind there you talked about from the AT1 issuances of EUR 20 million, could you tell us when you will get the benefit from the bonds these are replacing, i.e., when is the first call date of those bonds, and is there kind of a perfect match or will there be a mismatch? Just what the offset would be and when.
First off, the EUR 20 million, like mentioned, canceling the discount effect, that would include both the FX impact for the quarter and the AT1 issuance, so not the AT1 alone, but both of those items together around EUR 20 million. In terms of speculating on calls or so, we don't really do that, so I'll steer clear from that as such. There are, from recollection, at least one call next year on AT1 instruments, a call date, which is, if I remember right, in March next year. As I said, we don't provide commentary on that option.
No, I know you can't comment explicitly on whether you will call or not, but if you hypothetically would call, how much would the offset be?
I don't have the number now in terms of if we start speculating on the future instruments and what the cost related to those. I think the key point we're making with that is that the issuances that we had don't have the kind of redemption to offset that. From that perspective, there are instruments issued that will add a little bit of interest cost. Low single digit millions would be probably or a bit low, a bit single probably. Not a huge amount, but of course, we issued them during the quarter, so that you'd probably have a slightly bigger impact on the following quarter and so forth.
Okay. Secondly, just on the hedge impact on that slide 18 where you give us the details about the quarterly NII impacts and expected year-on-year impact, you haven't changed that picture since Q4 2024 where you assumed that the Finnish rates would be at 2.25% and Sweden at 2%. Now we have Finland at 2% and Sweden at 1.75%. How does that change the expected hedge impact? Because now it implies that figure implies a fairly high total hedge impact in the second half versus the first half, although rates couldn't possibly fall as much in the second half as in the first half.
I think there's still the expectation, we last updated that in last quarter, also with the market rates prevailing at that time. I think there's been a lot of volatility in rates, but I think the end-of-quarter rates actually have been quite stable in Q2 and Q1 as well. That should still be valid from that perspective. As we said, around EUR 20 million quarter-on-quarter would be a decent expectation for the near term. As we go longer, of course, the dynamics start shifting in terms of the shorter term or shorter rates, maybe not moving as much, and the impact more becoming from the repricing of the old hedges to new pricing. That will then kind of take over, but the short term is more linked to the short term rates.
Okay, so the 500 implies around EUR 25 million Q3 and Q4. That's relevant numbers, if I just do it.
Around EUR 20 million, yeah.
Okay, slightly below. Finally, just to repeat what you said at the analyst call last week with the CFO, if I remember correctly, you stated that you would reach the cost-income ratio target. You would be within the 44% - 46% range for the full year of 2025, still despite the 2% - 2.5% cost growth, and that cost growth should be lower in 2026-2027 than it is in 2025. Is that correctly understood?
Ian has said that 44%- 46% is a range that we'll get into. In terms of the go-forward cost growth, I would link it also to the year that we have seen thus far. I think the point is that the year-on-year growth in costs that we saw in the first half, we do not expect to go forward. These high single-digit type of cost growth numbers would not be the norm. I think his point was more that it's more reasonable to think about the full-year cost guide that we have as a more normal cost growth overall. I wouldn't say it's meant to guide you precisely for 2026 and 2027. We'll come to that when the time comes. The point is that these very, very high year-on-year cost growth numbers usually expect going forward.
Okay, but a 2%-2.5% includes also investments then for the full year. The underlying rate is actually lower.
I wouldn't, Magnus, maybe, you know, take this forward and try to iterate or get us to kind of give 2026-2027 guidance at this point. I'm not going to go there.
Thanks. We wait for the Capital Markets Day (CMD).
Thanks.
Let's take Nicolas first. I know Jacob, your hand is up, but you were on already. Unless you have a follow-up, maybe you can drop the hand as well. Nicolas.
Thanks. I had a follow-up on the Capital Markets Day because if I recall correctly, last time you had the CMD , you actually presented new financial targets in the quarterly results before the CMD . I think the CMD was more of a kind of a deep dive into the new targets and the strategy.
This call is being recorded.
Is that an option for you this time around as well, or should we definitely expect the new financial targets to come at the CMD and not before that?
Good question. I don't exactly know actually how to address that. It could be either or, I suppose. I wouldn't maybe hold my breath. I mean, you'll obviously see when the time comes. It's difficult to be fully kind of persuading on that one. It could be either or, but maybe lean more towards the CMD , to be honest.
Okay. I had a question on taxations on dividends because a lot of investors here in Sweden at least are a bit frustrated with the process to reclaim back part of the withholding tax on the dividends from the Finnish tax authorities. Have you investigated any kind of initiatives or actions you could take to help investors in this process? If you think that it's still something that investors would have to cope with, would it be an option for you to shift more of the capital distributions to buybacks rather than dividends to help investors that way instead?
I think dividends are an important part of the distribution mix given the shareholding base that we have. We always try to listen to our shareholders in terms of what are the preferred ways of distributing capital. There is no change in that desire to listen to shareholders and what they want us to do with their money. That's the first starting point. On the withholding tax, yeah, it is cumbersome for especially private individuals. Of course, we would hope that all kinds of banks that operate in this space and brokers would have support mechanisms in place to make the claiming of the tax as easy as possible. Ultimately, there's relatively little that we can do apart from trying to, of course, influence and see if there could be better ways of working with this going forward.
Nordea as a bank, we try to help our customers in terms of making it as smooth as possible. We would hope that others would as well.
Right. Yeah, because I think it would be very helpful to your investor base because, I mean, some local investors, I think it makes Nordea almost uninvestable for some because of the process and the time length it takes and also how it impacts the net asset value calculation. I think anything you can do there would be helpful also for the valuation of the shares.
That's duly noted. It's kind of an unnecessary nuisance, I think, from our perspective as well. Fully agree.
Okay. Thank you.
Thanks, Nicolas. Namita, go ahead.
Hi, Ilkka. Just on the fees and the capital markets activity, because Q2 was already quite a bad quarter in terms of activity. Are you saying that in Q3, the system data is still showing that seasonality exists? Is that the point of it? The quarter-on-quarter, like the 40% down, is still relevant for Q3 despite Q2 being a bad con?
That is what the data suggests. As I said, based on Dealogic and MergerMarket, those are the numbers when we just look at the first two months and take the average monthly run rate based on that versus Q2. That's what the number gives. Yes, it looks like that indicates that there is some seasonality still in the system, even though the volumes have been quite slow. Good to remember also, we did have in June a little bit of a pickup in activity. You do see also recent activity, which is indicating maybe some signs of that kind of potential momentum picking up as we have talked about for the end of the year or Q4. We'll see how that plays out. Yes, the answer would be that data source at least seems to indicate that.
Thanks.
Thanks, Namita. Sofie, go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Thanks a lot for taking my question. Just a quick follow-up on the deposit hedge. The negative impact was - EUR 4 8 million in the second quarter. If you add EUR 20 million, then it's a -EUR 28 million drag. Is it the correct way of thinking about it that the annual drag kind of run rate after the third quarter will be a bit more than EUR 100 million?
Annualizing Q3, you mean?
Yeah.
All other things equal, that would be the way the math works. You'd still have, if we just take hypothetically now this, EUR 48 million negative absolute impact in Q2. If you take the 20 on that, so EUR 28 million, and then multiply it by four, if that's the math, then yes, that would be what it indicates. Of course, we are still expecting that to move a little bit towards the end of the year as well. It will kind of get closer to not really being a relevant headwind for us from an absolute basis. Of course, it's a relatively sizable tailwind from a year-on-year basis where I think it matters and does what it's supposed to do, i.e., reduce the volatility that is induced by rate movements in our deposit base.
Okay, basically on a quarterly run rate, assuming you get another EUR 20 million in the fourth quarter, then we shouldn't really expect much on a quarterly basis of tailwinds in 2026 onwards.
We do still indicate in that disclosure we have on the slide that around EUR 100 million positive year-on-year contribution in 2026. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, as I said earlier, when rates and if rates stabilize, that impact that comes from the short-term rate moving obviously becomes much less if that's stable. The subsequent performance is more dependent on the repricing effects. Old hedges such as rolling off and new coming in, at that negative contribution level, I think it would be fair to think of that as a positive driver in terms of the repricing effect, but a less pronounced one perhaps than the short-term rate moving.
Shouldn't the new hedges be like neutral, where you have the Euribor plus the spread you pay broadly equaling the fixed rate?
It depends on what it replaces. We talked about, you know, two to three-year average duration for that. We talked about five, six-year swaps. If we now simplistically just think that the full portfolio is made of that, what you're getting on the fixed leg in the very old swaps is basically close to zero because those have been entered into in a negative rate era at the end of the day. Now you enter into a different level of fixed leg for the hedge. That would be still positive for the overall performance of the hedge. We can talk details offline as well if you wish. There is a slightly positive repricing effect that will still support in the kind of short, medium term once the short-term rates are stable.
Okay, I thought the historical low fixed rate was already reflected in the - EUR 48 million that you announced with the second quarter, but I can follow up. The second question would be, you mentioned that in the second quarter there was the one-off VAT refund in the cost line. In the third quarter, are there any known one-offs that we should take into consideration?
No, we haven't pre-communicated anything on Q3.
Okay, that's clear. Thank you so much.
Thanks. Bettina.
Hi, I just wanted to double-check on the capital comment, the 20 basis points. That is the reciprocation of the Norwegian systemic risk buffer. Is that something additional to that?
No, that's what was communicated by the FSA in June, I think, which we also referred to in our Q2 report, also stating that we do not agree with that manner of increasing our capital requirements. That is an old topic, but it becomes in force from the start of October.
Okay, so nothing on top of that, basically.
No.
As far as you know.
No new things, that's an old, old known topic.
Okay, perfect. Thank you.
Super. Thank you very much. Plenty of questions, but I think we are ready to end here. Look forward to speaking with you guys later on and enjoy the prep into Q3.