Please note that this call is being recorded for compliance reasons. This will be an audio-only Teams call, and we will keep you muted during the remarks and enable your microphones when we move over to Q&A. If you wish to ask a question, please use the raise-your-hand function.
We'll enter into our silent period on 7 January, so please contact us before that if you have further questions. Our Q4 2025 report will be published on 29 January. This call will focus on what happened back in Q3, relevant public data, and macro trends in our markets.
We will go through the macro indicators, the P&L statement line by line, and comment on capital at the end. The script will be published on Nordea's financial calendar webpage. We would like to highlight that we will only answer questions related to already disclosed information as well as publicly available data as of 17 December, unless otherwise noted. With that, let's turn to macro.
So starting with interest rates, with rate cuts happening late in the third quarter, the decrease in average Nordic policy rates in Q4 will be around 12 basis points quarter on quarter. Three-month interbank offered rates decreased in Sweden and Norway. Quarter to date, the average quarter on quarter decrease was 19 basis points for Sweden and eight basis points for Norway. Denmark and Finland increased by 2 to 3 basis points.
In the equity markets, quarter to date, the USD-denominated MSCI World Index was 4.9% higher on average quarter on quarter, while the OMX Nordic 40 Index was 3.8% higher. On the fixed income side, the USD-denominated Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index was 0.7% higher. Remember also to adjust for FX, as our reporting currency is euro. USD versus euro was 0.6% higher on average quarter on quarter. Further on FX movements, SEK and NOK versus the euro are always the key currencies to track, and what's relevant for the P&L is the average quarter on quarter development.
Quarter to date, SEK was 1.4% higher and NOK was 0.5% higher, presenting a minor tailwind for euro-denominated income in Q4 and a headwind for costs. Moving on to net interest income. As mentioned in the Q3 results call, Q4 NII is expected to be lower than Q3. In Q3, we reported NII of EUR 1.775 billion, and in terms of moving parts, for average Nordic policy rates, as mentioned, the decrease in Q4 is expected to be around 12 basis points, which is roughly half of the decrease we saw in Q3.
As you can see in the NII bridge from Q3, the margin-driven NII was close to a EUR 90 million reduction. Two things to note that is different this quarter. First, as we've said all along, the later cuts come with a greater impact as deposit rates bottom out. As an example, the pass-through rates of the latest rate cut on the basic savings accounts in Sweden was roughly half of the pass-through for the previous cut, with the rates now largely at zero.
And second, the average three-month NIBOR in Q4 is only eight basis points lower than in Q3, so the funding cost is not down as much as mortgage pricing, implying some squeeze to lending margin. The deposit hedge contribution was around EUR 20 million quarter over quarter in Q3, as mentioned on the Q3 results call, with the average Nordic policy rate reductions in Q4 being half of what they were in Q3. Think of the deposit hedge contribution being around EUR 10 million for Q4. For volumes, we recommend looking at the system-level volume data available in each country and would say there are no meaningful changes in recent trends.
Just a reminder that we have seen lending margin pressure in the recent quarters, partly driven by the mix with lower risk and therefore lower margin lending growth. With regards to pricing actions on lending and deposit products, these can be found on our local websites. On day count, there's no day count effect in Q4 versus Q3, and the average FX movements present a small positive in the quarter.
As previously noted, we were out in the market with a few sizable AT1 transactions late in Q3, which resulted in a small headwind in the quarter. In Q4, that will have a full quarter impact amounting to roughly EUR 15 million, 15. And with that, let's continue with net fee and commission income. On NCI, we reported EUR 811 million in Q3, which included non-recurring gains of around 10 million euro, which won't be repeated.
So EUR 800 million is the relevant starting point. On savings fees, we already highlighted some of the market movements, which net after adjusting for FX and our asset mix point at a slightly positive market performance effect on average AUM, sort of a low single-digit %. Also, in Q4, we normally book some annual and semi-annual fees, and these have historically been around EUR 10 million.
On brokerage and advisory, over the past three years, we've seen an average quarterly run rate of around 50 million EUR, with a seasonally weaker Q3. Good to remember that the seasonal impact in Q3 this year was less pronounced than in previous years, given the strong September. In October and November, based on the Dealogic and major market data, ECM and M&A is still slow, essentially flat quarter over quarter when adjusted for one rights issue and one IPO in October. DCM has remained solid as it has been throughout the year.
On payments and cards, activities normally seasonally lower in Q4 compared with Q3, and just a reminder, I said the 10 million EUR non-recurring item in Q3 was within payments and cards. Then on net insurance results, which in Q3 amounted to EUR 66 million, higher than in Q2, primarily due to movements in medium to long-term interest rates benefiting Norwegian insurance products. As we've previously commented, rate movements tend to have a larger immediate effect in the quarter and then a smaller recurring effect.
In Q2, net insurance result was EUR 58 million and in Q1, EUR 54 million. On net fair value, as said multiple times, we think about this line being worth about EUR 1 billion a year, and we generally have a stronger first half than second half. A reasonable expectation should therefore be around EUR 200 million and EUR 250 million this quarter. On costs, as said with Q3 results, our expectation is that total costs will be around EUR 5.4 billion for full year 2025. So that gives you a clear indication also for the fourth quarter.
We are confident that we will meet the expectation, even with the average FX movements presenting a small headwind in the quarter. For housekeeping purposes, a reminder on a new item that we will book from Q4. Following the Swedish Riksbank decision, the fee for interest-free deposits for credit institutions, which also applies to Swedish branches of foreign credit institutions, will be booked under regulatory fees.
The impact will be fairly limited, sort of mid-single-digit EUR million. On credit, so for loan losses, I'd say that the consensus is too low with quite large deviations between individual estimates. Two key things to note. In Q4, loan losses historically tend to be higher than other quarters, as companies set next year's budgets, review liquidity, and consult banks on restructuring if needed.
As a result, excluding management judgment releases, Q4 loan losses have amounted to close to the long-term expectation of around 10 basis points in the past couple of years. And secondly, we have already released a significant portion of the management judgment buffer earlier in the year to match the prevailing economic conditions. And finally, as Ian pointed out at the CMD, we expect the management judgment buffer to be fully utilized in 2026 in strengthening our model provisions or released.
Regarding taxes, a short comment. So in Q3, our tax rate was 23.1%, and year-to-date tax rate was 23.3%. Those levels are reasonable to expect for Q4 and the full year as well. And then finally, on capital, our CET1 requirement stood at 13.6 at the end of Q3, and the Q3 CET1 ratio was 15.9%.
In terms of communicated items for Q4, you saw that we launched a new buyback program of EUR 500 million earlier this week. The buyback reduces our CET1 ratio by around 30 basis points in Q4. As communicated in previous quarters, our CET1 requirement will increase by approximately 20 basis points from Q4 as a result of the decision by the Finnish FSA to fully reciprocate the Norwegian systemic risk buffer of 4.5%. And finally, a reminder on our dividend policy. Our policy is to pay out between 60%-70% of annual profits in dividends.
While not strictly a written policy, we have also indicated the ambition to have a stable to growing dividend per share. In recent years, we have been in the mid part of the dividend policy range, so clearly showing that we do use the range as appropriate, and hence you shouldn't automatically expect us to be at the top end of it. And finally, to close off, as said, our fourth quarter report will be released on the 29th of January, and our silent period starts on the 7th of January. So if you have further questions, feel free to contact us before that. And now let's move over to.
[Foreign language]
And Sophie, go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Here is Sophie from Goldman. Thanks a lot for taking my question. So just two clarifications. On the investor day, you mentioned that you will take some restructuring charges. Should we expect all these restructuring charges to be fully booked in 2026, or could there be anything taken out in Q4?
I think Ian was quite clear that 2026 will see those. Maybe as a reminder on the size, what he mentioned, that it's expected to be smaller than what we had back in 2019, and back then the restructuring amounted to EUR 204 million. Just to complete the picture on what he said.
Thank you. That's very clear. Then on Common Equity Tier 1, should we expect any impact from higher operational risk rates, or will that be taken in Q1?
The op risk update is Q1, so we should see it in Q1 and not Q4.
So the capital headwinds really this quarter is a EUR 500 million share buyback of 30 basis points and EUR 250 that you already did, which is not deducted, another 15 basis points, so 45 basis points of capital headwinds this quarter, and then the op risk comes in Q1.
Yeah, if you want to call the buybacks a headwind, but the deduction.
No, no, no, the deduction. Sorry, sorry.
Yeah, that's fair.
That's perfect. Thank you very much.
Thank you. I can't actually see any other questions, so I think we were crystal clear this time around. So thank you for your time, and if you have any further questions down the line, then do reach out to us before or on the 7th of January. Wishing everyone a happy holidays when you get there.