Good morning, everyone, and welcome to this conference call regarding the acquisition we announced in Norway this morning. We thought this would be a good time to go a bit to the details about it, and we all know that there is other banks reporting as well. Let's start with a short intro by Ian about the rationale of the transaction, and then please ask any questions you may have. And I hope that you could use the raise your hand function on Teams, or then if you're calling in, just shout after that. With that, over to you, Ian.
Thanks, Matti. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to the call today. We're pleased to announce that Nordea will acquire Danske Bank's Norwegian personal customer and private banking business, and the associated asset management portfolios that come with those customers. This is another important step in executing our Nordic growth strategy, a bolt-on acquisition, which expands our presence in the Norway personal customer business in a complementary manner. It'll add significant scale to our personal banking business in Norway. We'll get more coverage in regions where we've not historically been strong, and it offers us, we think, good value creation opportunities through clear revenue and cost synergies. This transaction, when it closes, is expected to enhance personal banking, Norway's earnings and profitability through increased scale, as well as operational and funding synergies. Just a couple of words about the deal itself.
Using the year-end 2022 figures, the transaction is expected to increase on a Nordea's mortgage market share in Norway by around 50%. Should take us to 16% or so from the current 11%. As at the end of 2022, the transferring business comprised around 285,000 customers, lending and deposit volumes of EUR 18 billion and EUR 4 billion, respectively, and associated assets under management of around EUR 2 billion. It's important to understand that the size of the portfolio to be transferred, and eventually, the consideration paid, will be determined at closing, and we expect that the transaction will close towards the end of 2024.
After closing, the transaction is expected to also consume around 40 to 50 basis points of CET1 capital from Nordea Group and to positively impact our earnings per share and return on equity, in line with the size of the acquired portfolio. Importantly, the transaction is structured as a transfer of assets and liabilities at book value, and the assets will be transferred at fair value, and there's no goodwill expected to be payable. The transaction is subject to customary regulatory approvals, as I said, is expected to close in late 2024. We're very pleased to be able to take this opportunity. It'll be an important step forward for our personal banking business in Norway. I guess with that, let's open for some Q&A, because I appreciate the time is short.
Thanks, Ian. We already have a couple of questions. Let's take first, Anders Håkansson from Danske. Please go ahead. Anders?
Sorry. Morning, guys.
Hi.
Yeah, two questions. First one is that, given that the transaction is one year out, and you have a very decent profitability at the moment, do you see that there is any impact on your current or expected, capital distribution plans? That's the First question.
Yes, you're right. It is a long way out, and you know, we're continuing to generate capital strongly. Certainly the period between now and then, we wouldn't expect it to have an impact on our capital distribution plans. We, we will have to see when we get to the deal. We think it's a good use of capital. It's very much part of our policy of managing our capital position with capital distributions, but also bolt-on acquisitions. No, we won't expect it to impact our plans between now and then.
Okay, perfect. Secondly, on the Akademikerne and the other labor union agreement, how sticky do you think those clients are? If I remember correctly, in Danske, I think these were probably the least attractive clients who were richest in margins and so on. Are these the clients that you expect that you might lose, and how do you think that's going to impact your business?
The clients that came to Danske Bank through the Akademikerne agreement are really good customers. They're, you know, premium customers, but only taking one product. We will expect to see some attrition after the distribution contract has ended. As you say, to the extent that we lose mortgage-only customers, at relatively low margin, we'll end up, all other things being equal, with a slightly smaller portfolio, but at better margins. We're happy to accept that.
I think though, just putting a foot on the ball there, you know, Danske has will look after this customer base between now and closing, and I think we have a good opportunity to hang on to those customers and then to do a lot more with them when they join Nordea.
Okay. That's it for me. Thank you.
Thanks. We'll take the next question from Jennifer Davies. Please go ahead.
Hi. You can hear me fine?
Yeah.
Brilliant. Apologies if you mentioned this on the intro, I had a microphone difficulty, but a couple of questions from my side. First of all, on the EPS uplift, I guess the implication is in line with the loan book increase, which is 4% or 5%. Maybe if you could just give us a confirmation of that, and also when that EPS guidance kicks in. Is that from day one, or is that implicit on cost synergies, you know, in year two, year three, or so on? Then the second question would be, obviously, this deal must have come about pretty quickly from your side. Any information on the timelines that you were held to on this?
If you've had a chance to really look through the books and look at the degree of overlap of clients and the kind of cost synergies that you could potentially get out of this, just to give us an idea of what's gone into the process so far and how much you know, really. Those would be the two questions. Thank you.
Of course, yes. Yes, we say that it'll be accretive in line with the scale of the deal. This is a, you know, a relatively small net portfolio for us. The EPS increase will not be of the magnitude you spoke about. Positive, but small. You know, this I guess, this deal, we've been in discussions for some time about whether this is the right thing to do. We've had a good chance to look through the portfolio and think very hard about any of the risks in there. It's a very clean, prime mortgage portfolio with some sort of all-round customers as well, that have deposits and current accounts and other products.
A clean retail book. We've done the necessary due diligence on it. In terms of when we would expect it to be EPS accretive, I suspect it's year two onwards. We've got the opportunity to realize funding synergies. And I guess once we get past the year one implementation cost, the cost of bringing it across to Nordea, we expect it to be accretive.
Brilliant. Any numbers you can share around cost synergies, or is that, is it just too early for that kind of thing?
Not at this stage. It's.
Yeah.
This is a portfolio acquisition, that there will be some associated employees that work with the business, customer-facing employees coming across with it. We don't inherit any of the sort of other costs that are in that business. This is a lift and drop.
Yeah, yeah.
It's about the marginal costs, associated with it. The synergies are principally around funding and revenue.
Clear. Thank you very much. Thank you for the call.
Thanks, the next question is from Riccardo Rovere. Please go ahead.
Can you hear me?
Yep.
Okay, thanks. Just a couple, if I may. You reported a common equity ratio in the first half of 16. The deal consumes, say, 50 basis, you're gonna go down on a pro forma basis to 15.5. 15.5, correct me if I'm wrong, is right in the middle of the guidance you provided the Capital Markets Day, when the capital requirement target was set between 15 and 16, if I remember correctly. Basically, with this deal, you have recalibrated. You have been recalibrating Common Equity Tier 1 down with buybacks. With this deal, you have, you go to 15.5.
Is it fair to say that the recalibration of Common Equity Tier 1 is over, and from now on, you have your policy, let's say, your policy of 60%-70% payout? Am I looking at it in a kind of wrong way or not? The other thing I wanted to ask is, the impact here, given that is a book value for you, it's just the RWA, I would imagine, that you will bring on. While, correct me if I'm wrong, if the fair value of the closing of assets and liabilities is different than the one today, benefits or risks will stay on Danske's side. Am I getting it right, if the numbers will have to be a bit different at closing?
You I hope I caught you accurately, Riccardo. Your mic wasn't entirely clear. We said for some time, I guess, that the last two or three quarters, that we've dealt with the obvious excess capital, and that we'd be using buybacks as a, almost like a business as usual tool. I think the current buyback is a good example of that. You know, EUR 1 billion stretched over a longer period than the previous buybacks. We've already been in that zone, if you like, of trimming, you know, generating capital, thinking about how to deploy it, whether in growth or in buybacks, and so we've been in that space for some time. This deal doesn't change that.
I hope that helps. Yeah, this is essentially bringing on the RWA, which drives the capital impact. We have agreed with. We've agreed that the assets will come on at their value. To the extent that there are any pockets of the portfolio that are out of market in terms of fixed-rate lending or something like that, they will be mark-to-market before coming across. It's pretty straightforward.
Thank you. Thanks. Very clear. Thanks. The next question is from Magnus Andersson, ABG. Please go ahead. Is there a Magnus? Apparently not. Hello?
Do you hear me now, Matti?
Yep, now we do.
Yeah, okay, good. Sorry about that. Just on the 40-50 basis points on the CET1 ratio, I guess that's assuming that there is no run-off of the academic volumes, which means that the actual impact is most likely to be lower than that. Just to confirm that. Secondly, did you experience any competition, or any other interest in these assets?
Magnus, yes, you're right. Yeah, we can't sort of project what the portfolio will be on closing. Likelihood is, it'll be smaller and more profitable than today. And the CET1 impact will recalibrate accordingly. We were aware of other interest in the assets. But I'm pleased that we were able to strike a deal with Danske.
Okay. Thank you.
Thanks. Next question is from Jakob, from Autonomous. Please go ahead. Jakob, are you there? Just checking with the mute button. Okay, I guess Jakob? We'll take the next question from the UK number from the telephone. All right. As it looks like there's some technical difficulties, unless, Jakob, you have your mic on? If not, we thank for the.
I appreciate there's more stuff going on today. Thanks for your time this morning. IR and myself are available to answer any further questions that you have through the day, and look forward to talking to you again.
Thank you very much.