Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q3 2022 Neste Corporation earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one and one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Juha-Pekka Kekäläinen. Please go ahead.
Thank you, and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to this conference call to discuss Neste's third quarter results published this morning. I'm Juha-Pekka Kekäläinen, Head of Neste IR, and here with me on the call are President and CEO Matti Lehmus, CFO Martti Ala-Härkönen, and the Business Unit heads Carl Nyberg of Renewables Platform, Markku Korvenranta of Oil Products, and Panu Kopra of Marketing & Services. We will be referring to the presentation that can be found on our website. As always, please pay attention to the disclaimer since we will be making forward-looking statements in this call. With these remarks, I would like to hand over to our President and CEO, Matti Lehmus, to start with the presentation. Matti, please go ahead.
Thank you, Juha-Pekka, and a very good afternoon also on my behalf. It's great to have you all participating in this call. In the third quarter, the war in Ukraine continued to have a significant impact on international energy markets, leading to high oil product and natural gas prices in Europe. In this turbulent market environment, Neste's operational and financial performance was very good. I would like especially to thank the Neste personnel for making this happen. Moving now to page four. Our strong performance continued in the exceptional third quarter markets. The group's comparable EBITDA was EUR 979 million compared to EUR 524 million last year. All of our businesses improved their comparable EBITDA compared to the corresponding period last year.
Renewable Products performed well despite the negative impact of margin hedging and some challenges in outbound logistics, which caused postponement of some product deliveries to October. Our comparable sales margin averaged $756 per ton, which was higher than in the corresponding period last year, but slightly lower than our third quarter guidance. The demand for Renewable Products remained good while our sales volumes were impacted by the logistical delays and the scheduled maintenance at the Singapore refinery. I'm very pleased that the share of waste and residue feedstock remained very high at 96% level. Oil Products strong result was driven by the exceptionally high oil product margins, and particularly diesel margin was high. The last shipment of Russian crude oil was received in July, and most of the natural gas has been replaced with propane and other alternatives.
Utility costs remain high, but replacing natural gas with propane has been economically attractive. Our Marketing & Services segment performed very well in the third quarter, and we were able to gain market share, and our unit margins increased. During the third quarter, we took many important steps in our strategy execution. I will come back to this later in the presentation. Turning to our financial targets, I want to state that our financial position remains solid. We reach an after-tax ROACE of 27.6% on a rolling 12-month basis, while our target is 15%. At the end of September, our leverage ratio was 16.3%, well within the targeted area of below 40%. This solid financial position enables the implementation of our go-growth strategy going forward.
With these remarks, I'll hand over to Martti to discuss the financials in more detail.
Thank you, Matti. The third quarter was indeed performed under exceptional market conditions. Let's now have a closer look into the group figures. Neste delivered another quarter of high revenue in the third quarter. Our third quarter revenue was almost EUR 6.6 billion versus EUR 4 billion a year ago. Revenue increased by about EUR 2.6 billion or 64% compared to the previous year. The revenue growth also, for its own part, describes the exceptional market of the quarter. The revenue growth resulted from overall higher market as well as sales prices, which had a positive impact for about EUR 2.4 billion. The slightly lower sales volumes than last year had a negative impact of approximately EUR 200 million, and additionally, a stronger U.S. dollar had a positive impact of approximately EUR 400 million on the revenue compared to the same period last year.
Neste posted a strong comparable EBITDA of EUR 979 million versus EUR 524 million a year earlier, which is 80% up from the third quarter last year. This is actually the second highest comparable EBITDA ever recorded by Neste in a quarter, following the all-time high result recorded in the second quarter earlier this year. Like Matti already mentioned, all our businesses improved their comparable EBITDA compared to last year. Particularly, our Oil Products performed strongly, contributing EUR 537 million to the group's total comparable EBITDA. Renewable Products also performed well with comparable EBITDA at EUR 389 million, up from EUR 357 million last year. Considering the negative hedging result and logistical issues mentioned earlier.
At our previous call, I mentioned that we were still targeting the guided sales margin range for Renewable Products for the third quarter. Now, we fell slightly below that due to logistical terminal congestion issues contributing to some 40 kt lower renewable sales volumes than anticipated at the end of September. All this happened at the very end of September. These volumes were postponed thus to October. As the postponed sales were also very high margin sales, this together with a negative hedging result resulted in us falling slightly below the guided margin range for the third quarter in Renewable Products. To close up regarding all our businesses, our Marketing & Services also had a strong performance in the third quarter, with comparable EBITDA at EUR 38 million. This is actually an all-time high performance for Marketing & Services in a single quarter.
Our free cash flow was slightly negative in the third quarter at EUR 18 million. We were able to release cash from the net working capital in the third quarter, in total, EUR 347 million, while the capital expenditure in the third quarter was high at EUR 870 million, particularly due to the closing of our Martinez Renewables transaction. With regard to net working capital, I would also like to mention that the group's net working capital in days outstanding was 43.7 days versus 44.6 days a year earlier on a rolling 12-month basis at the end of the third quarter. This means that the turn rate in our total working capital, it has actually slightly improved year-on-year, and I think this can be considered a good result in a volatile market environment.
The increase in the net working capital during the first nine months of the year is by and large attributable to prices on the asset side, particularly to the growth in our inventories, as well as in the case of Oil Products, also to substantially higher sales volumes compared to last year. Our comparable earnings per share, which is the basis for our dividend policy, was EUR 0.79 versus EUR 0.42 a year earlier per share in the third quarter, and EUR 2.21 versus EUR 1.04 a year earlier cumulatively in the first nine months of the year. Cumulative comparable EPS has more than doubled in the first nine months of 2022 compared to last year.
That reflects our strong delivery, I think, in 2022, and the year-to-date comparable EPS of EUR 2.21 could also be compared to, for example, the full year comparable EPS figure of EUR 1.54 last year. If we then turn and look at the third quarter comparison bridge by business, we can see that, like I said, all our businesses improved their performance year-on-year. Most of the improvement, EUR 420 million, came from Oil Products. This was a result of an exceptional refining market and also exceeded our own expectations. We are also pleased with the performance achieved at our Renewable Products and Marketing & Services businesses. When we then on the next page look at the same comparison bridge by profit driver, we know that sales margin improvement contributed EUR 452 million to the performance improvement.
On Renewables Products side, we achieved a good sales margin, while Oil Products margins were driven by the exceptionally high diesel margin during the quarter. Our sales volumes were a bit below the third quarter level of last year. The stronger U.S. dollar, here we are excluding the FX hedges, had a positive impact as a stand-alone of EUR 111 million on the comparable EBITDA year-on-year. Our fixed costs were EUR 62 million higher than in the third quarter of last year, mainly due to the preparations of growth in the renewables business. Moving to the next page, when we look at the first nine months of the year bridge by driver, it is very much the same story.
We have practically doubled the cumulative comparable EBITDA from EUR 1.3 billion last year to EUR 2.6 billion in the first nine months of this year. Sales margin, foreign exchange changes, and sales volumes were all driving this improvement. To summarize, all in all, we are very pleased with both our financial as well as operational performance in the third quarter and in the first nine months of the year. At the same time, we have made significant progress in the execution of our growth strategy, thus continuing our successful transformation. With these remarks, I'll hand over to Carl to discuss more closely our Renewable Products performance.
Thank you, Martti . This is Carl. Good morning, good afternoon, everyone on the call. Let me take you through the RP figures. Looking at our overall achievements in the quarter, we had a solid performance, reaching an EBITDA of EUR 389 million, EUR 332 million up from the third quarter in 2021. On the other hand, EBITDA came down from the record level posted in Q2 on the back of lower volumes as well as lower sales margins quarter on quarter. The comparable sales margin was very healthy at $756 per metric ton, up more than $150 per metric ton from third quarter in 2021.
On the other hand, sales volumes came down partly due to the scheduled turnaround in Singapore, but also partly due to the shipping delays at the end of the quarter. We continue to execute our strategy in strengthening our waste and residue feedstock base and supply capabilities, and the share of waste and residue continued to be high at 96%, up from 91% one year back. Investments were high during the quarter, reaching EUR 827 million. We reached all conditions and regulatory approvals for closing the transaction with Marathon Petroleum for the Martinez Renewables joint operation. The Martinez Renewables project continues to be on track, and we are bound to reach mechanical completion toward the end of this year and start up in the beginning of next year.
Our net assets have grown over the past year by almost EUR 1.5 billion as we continue to execute our growth strategy while our RONA remains strong at 28.7%. If we then move to the next slide, let me take you through the EBITDA bridge between Q3 in 2021 and Q3 2022. As mentioned, volumes were about 74 kt lower than one year back, which resulted in an EBITDA drop of EUR 50 million. On the other hand, the strong sales margins resulted in a EUR 39 million higher EBITDA compared to the 2021 margin. The strong dollar also had a positive impact on the margins as the FX impact was EUR 89 million, excluding the hedges year on year.
Finally, fixed costs continued to increase as we continue to build our capabilities and organization ahead of the capacity growth in 2023, when both Singapore expansion and Martinez Renewables facilities will start up. If we then turn to the feedstocks, let's look at how the market developed over the quarter. We saw the drop in veg oil prices continue in the third quarter on the back of palm oil weakness due to the weaker fundamentals and increasing stocks. While the whole feedstock pool overall softened, the drop in veg oils was significantly heavier, dropping almost 40% quarter on quarter. Waste and residue did follow the decline, although at a slower pace, posting a roughly 25% decrease quarter on quarter.
While palm oil prices seem to have stabilized for the time being around current levels, waste and residue spreads to the veg oil complex are at historical high levels, and there are some signs of further softening of price of waste and residues. On the other hand, the waste and residue markets remain tight due to robust demand and increased RD capacity coming online over the course of the coming months and year. If you then turn to the next page and have a look at the U.S. credit prices. Here we can see a bit of a divided story. While on one hand we have seen D4 RIN prices remain firm over the course of the quarter, the credit prices have been hovering around $1.70 per gallon on the back of wide soybean oil/heating oil spread, also indicating a rather healthy SME margins.
On the other hand, LCFS prices continued to weaken quarter-over-quarter as it dropped to $86 per metric ton from $104 in Q2, as low carbon credit generation continued to be robust and prospects of increased RD capacity in the U.S. is factored in, into the values. The LCFS prices have been continuing to trend further down in October, and the lower LCFS values may over time also impact price spread to lower CI feedstocks. However, the carbon intensity target will continue to grow annually and will increase again next year from 10% this year to 11.25% 2023, underpinning the need for more low carbon solutions. Let's go through the sales margin before handing over to Markku in Oil Products.
The comparable sales margin averaged $756 per metric ton, up from $679 in the third quarter 2021. While we consider this margin to be a good achievement, the fact is that we slightly also missed the third quarter guided range. The key reason for this was, as mentioned, the delays in shipping at the end of the quarter as some high-value sales volumes moved to the fourth quarter. We also faced a significant negative impact in our margin hedging. While feedstock prices came off, the benefits from the wider spread between veg oils and diesel was balanced by losses in our margin hedges, as well as very strong waste and residue premiums. In addition to the above, diesel prices also came off, reaching an almost 10% decline quarter-on-quarter.
However, weaker diesel prices were partly compensated by a strong sales performance and sales premiums, which increased by almost $50 per metric ton quarter-over-quarter. Production costs had also a negative impact on the sales margins on the back of increasing energy costs. However, our utility hedging continued to partly mitigate increasing utility costs. We can also note that our 100% Neste MY Renewable Diesel sales were up in the quarter and reached 30% of our RD sales as we continue to build our presence with the brand in the market to reach out towards the end customers. Our utilization was slightly down from one year back due to the maintenance at our Singapore refinery. Otherwise, our production was running smoothly and at high capacity. This concludes the Renewable Products part. Thanks on my behalf and over to you, Markku.
Thank you, Carl. Good afternoon. Now a quick update from Oil Products. The first slide, we had, again, a very strong quarter in a tight refining market. The comparable EBITDA was EUR 537 million compared to EUR 125 million the year before, and EUR 529 million in Q2 this year. Sales volume was at 2.9 million tons, up from 2.7 million tons the year before and 2.8 million tons in Q2 this year.
The total refining margin was at $28 per barrel, up $19 per barrel compared to Q3 last year and down $2 per barrel compared to the previous quarter this year. The average gross share of the feed was 9% in Q3 2022, reflecting our decision to stop making new contracts for Russian origin feedstocks. The last crude cargo was delivered to Porvoo in July this year. The expectation is that the oil processing will be finished late this November when the inventory is fully consumed. Comparable return on net assets increased from -0.8% to 38% compared to the previous 12-month period. On the next slide, total refining margin volume and FX changes contributed to the improved result compared to the Q3 last year. While fixed cost and other items had a negative effect.
The others is mainly driven by the divested base oil business. The disruption caused by the war in Ukraine and the general supply-demand situation continued to drive prices and volatility of diesel up. In contrast, gasoline weakened clearly during the quarter. Diesel margin was peaking at close to $70 per barrel, a very similar level we experienced at the second half of June during the second quarter of this year. Heavy fuel oil margin continued on a downward trend after showing some strength in the middle of the past quarter. After being stable for a good part of 2021 and the first quarter of this year at around $10 per barrel, the margin shot to $30 per barrel range in Q2 2022, and stayed there for the Q3 of this year.
The average our refinery utilization rate was 80% compared to 91% in the third quarter of 2021, and 89% in the previous quarter this year. The utilization rate in this quarter was burdened by the plant unit turnarounds. Refinery production costs were $7.2 per barrel compared to $4.7 per barrel last year, and $6.8 per barrel in Q2, 2022. The volatility of production cost is mainly due to the cost of utilities. With that, I conclude the Oil Products intro and hand over to Panu for Marketing & Services presentation.
Thank you, Markku. Hello to all, this is Panu speaking. Very strong financial performance continued in Marketing & Services in Q3. EUR 38 million EBITDA is our best ever result in third quarter. Return on net assets increased over 41%, which is indeed high level in retail business. Our market shares, both in diesel and gasoline, developed very well in Finland and moderately in Baltic countries. We were able to reach healthy margins by excellent network prices. However, gasoline demand has been decreasing in August and September due to high pump prices. This is clearly seen in Baltics, where the inflation is picking up more than 20%. Neste MY volumes increased more than 35% compared to last year in Finland, and the bunker volumes continued healthy development as well. LFO volumes also increased by 30% compared to last year.
We have expanded Neste MY availability at station network in Finland during last two years, and this year we have expanded in Baltics as well. I'm happy that volumes have increased over 30% compared to last year. In order to increase our share of wallet in B2B segment, we have launched new EV charging service for our fleet customers, and first results are positive and promising. This was shortly about Marketing & Services. Handing over back to Matti.
Thank you, Panu. Let's now move on to the current topics. First, a few words on our strategy execution during the third quarter as we continue to make good progress in many important areas. The Singapore renewables capacity expansion project is approaching mechanical completion and continues to be on schedule for startup at the end of the first quarter, 2023. The project's CapEx estimate has been increased from EUR 1.5 billion to EUR 1.65 billion due to recent changes in currency exchange rates and the cumulative cost impacts of implementation during the pandemic. I'm very pleased to note that the Martinez Renewables transaction has been closed. The joint operation is expected to start up in early 2023, with pretreatment capabilities expected for the second half of 2023, and full production capacity of 2.1 million tons per year by the end of 2023.
In the initial phase, the main feedstock for Martinez Renewables is expected to be primarily sustainably sourced soybean oil, but the share of waste and residue raw materials is expected to increase after the pretreatment capabilities come online. In Neste's global feedstock supply, the share of waste and residue raw materials is expected to stay above 90% in the coming years, while in the longer term, the growth in novel vegetable oils availability may increase the share of sustainably produced vegetable oils. The Rotterdam expansion project is on track, with the majority of the equipment purchases already being done due to a successful front-end loading procurement. Finally, in Finland, we launched a strategic study on transitioning our Porvoo refinery to a renewable and circular site and ending crude oil refining in the mid-2030s.
Through co-processing and retrofitting of units and benefiting from available refining assets and know-how, we would have the potential to significantly grow our renewables and circular production in Porvoo in the long term. These are just a few examples of strategy execution that make us closer to becoming the global leader in renewable and circular solutions. Let us then turn to the outlook for the fourth quarter, and there we see the following. In Renewable Products, the sales volumes are expected to be higher than in the previous quarter. The waste and residue markets are anticipated to remain tight and volatile, and our renewable sales margin is expected to be within the range of $700-$800 per ton. Utilization rates of our renewable production facilities are forecast to remain high, except for the scheduled seven-week maintenance turnaround at the Rotterdam refinery.
The negative result impact of the turnaround is currently estimated to be approximately EUR 100 million on the segment's comparable EBITDA. Due to our mitigation actions via inventories, the sales volume and EBITDA impacts are, however, spread over a period of several quarters. Oil Products market is seen to be volatile and impacted by the war in Ukraine. Based on the current forward market, the fourth quarter total refining margin is expected to remain solid but lower than in the third quarter. Sales volumes are forecast to be at about the same level seen in the previous quarter. In Marketing & Services, the sales volumes and unit margins are expected to follow the previous year's seasonality pattern, and the high price levels are expected to have some negative impact on demand, particularly in the Consumer segment. We continue to execute our strategy and invest in our business.
Our cash-out capital expenditure estimate for the year has not changed. We estimate approximately EUR 1.9 billion in CapEx, including about EUR 800 million for the Martinez Renewables joint operation. Other possible M&A is excluded from this figure. This concludes the presentation, and we would now be happy to take any questions you may have. Operator, please.
Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one and one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. We will take our first question. Your question comes from the line of Joshua Stone from Barclays. Please ask your question.
Thanks. Hi, good afternoon. I've actually got three questions, please. Firstly, just on the delayed sales volumes of 40,000 tons. What would your margin have been if that hadn't have happened? So maybe just try and quantify that effect. And then secondly, on the hedging, it just strikes me that a lot of the issues you're having is the volatility of the POGO spread. It's a bit of an imperfect hedge now because you've got palm oil, you know, falling very dramatically and your waste business is not in the same way. Have you looked at other instruments to hedge your business, particularly for next year? You know, maybe bean oil or maybe there's some UK contracts out there.
Then lastly, just on Sweden, have you got any line of sight of what's happening politically there, risk of mandate cuts? What are you planning around your sales allocation in the near term, given that uncertainty? Thank you.
Thanks, Josh. This is Carl. On the RP sales delay, we have not quantified that, but what we have indicated is that we would have been in the margin range that we had projected for the quarter if we wouldn't have missed those sales basically. Those were high value sales that occurred in the end of the quarter due to this shipping delays.
In terms of the hedging, indeed, I think what we're seeing here now in the third quarter is that when the palm oil market came off very quickly, we didn't see the rest of the feedstock pool react as quickly as the palm oil did. That indeed led to the fact that it looks like a little bit of an imperfect hedge here. This is something that we have been aware of. This is a proxy hedge and only partly protects us from the market moves.
We have been also studying alternative ways of hedging our margin, and this is something that we constantly are looking at and considering. Definitely bean oil is one of the instruments that potentially could be also used in the future. Now for the Swedish situation, there was of course a lot of talk around the elections, around the mandate in Sweden. Actually, for the time being, it seems that Sweden will maintain the current mandate levels and hence we are not seeing any big changes for the time being.
Of course, when we come into next year, there will be discussions on the mandate for 2024, but those will then be clarified, let's say, in those discussions. We have to keep in mind that there's still quite a lot of time before those decisions will be taken. There's a lot of aspects of the overall RED requirements that would have to be taken into account in those decisions for Sweden. Of course, as we are operating a global model.
We look at optimizing this on a global basis and continue to drive also growth in other markets to diversify as well our position.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. We will take our next question. The question comes from the line of Mehdi Ennebati from Bank of America. Please ask your question.
Yes. Hi. Hi, good afternoon all. Thanks for the presentation. Two questions, please, on my side. First one, a follow-up regarding the hedging. I remember you telling us that you've hedged around 50%-60% of your margin in the second half of 2022. I wanted to know how much, or let's say, what is the hedging ratio so far for 2023. Can you maybe tell us, you know, regarding Q1, regarding Q2, just for us, you know, to understand if there might be a reversal of that negative hedging impact from the beginning of next year. Second question is about, you know, the Martinez refinery, which is about to start.
You said that it will be using soybean oil. Should we expect that before the pretreatment unit starts by mid-2023, the impact in terms of EBITDA will probably be marginal? If you can help us with that would be great. Maybe just a small third question. Some other refiners, you know, are highlighting that so far in Q3, in Q4, sorry, in October, refining margins are much higher than in Q3. How can you explain that for you this is not the case? Or maybe this has been the case regarding October, and you are extremely cautious for the remaining of the fourth quarter. Thank you.
Thank you, Mehdi. This is Matti. I can take the first one on the hedging. Indeed, what we have communicated in the past is that we have typically an average hedging ratio in the past of around 50%, and we had also communicated for the second half that it's somewhere in that 50%-60% range. It was actually slightly over 60% in the third quarter.
Correct.
Slightly under 60% in the fourth quarter. That's exactly where we are now. To your question on 2023, we have slightly evolved our hedging policy. We are now following a system where we try to look at the next five quarters and let's say start with slightly higher hedging ratios and then reduce it quarter by quarter. We are currently somewhere under 20% for next year following this logic. I would expect that with this let's say, policy, we typically would end up somewhere in the 30%-40% range, for then as we go forward.
Thank you.
Yeah, maybe, if maybe I can take the second question then around Martinez. Indeed, during the first half of the year, before we have the pretreatment capacity coming on stream, we will. The primary feedstock will be soybean oil. At the same time, the volumes are not gonna be as high before as we are ramping up. As you know, in the second half of the year, towards the end of the year, we will get the phase three where the capacity then will eventually grow. Directionally, of course, we aim to move towards waste and residues with the Martinez Renewables facility as well.
That way then also continue to optimize our margins.
On the refining, please. Refining margin.
I'll take the refining margin question. Indeed, the diesel margin has been strong in early weeks of October. The market, however, is in backwardation. When we put this together, that led us into figures of a low, strong, solid, but lower than second quarter where we are standing today.
Yeah. If I continue from there, what has happened in the Oil Products side, the backwardation has sort of continued in the same way after one month. We don't know. Of course, we cannot see into the crystal ball and into the future. We base our assumptions on the current situation, on the backwardated curves, looking at those.
Understood. Thank you very much, all of you.
Thank you. We will take our next question. Your question comes from the line of Artem Beletski from SEB. Please ask your question.
Yes. Hi, and thank you for taking my questions. Also, I have three to be asked. The first one is relating to Renewables, and basically fixed cost outlook. Your guidance for EUR 55 million increase in Q4 due to Martinez. Looking at the Q4 expectation, is it a good sort of run rate looking at next year when it comes to fixed costs? The second one is relating to Oil Products and actually looking at total margin, what you were able to achieve in Q3. It didn't really come down that much compared to Q2. At the same time, product margins, especially when it comes to gasoline, have been coming down quite substantially. Could you maybe talk a bit more about the relatively good development in Oil Products?
the last one, just in general relating to term deal negotiations around for next year, basically. Have you started those ones and how situation looks like at this stage? Thank you.
Yeah. This is Matti. I can perhaps take the first one, the fixed cost. Carl will then comment on the term sales and Markku on the OP. On the fixed cost, like we pointed out, the fixed cost in renewables is expected to go up EUR 55 million in the fourth quarter. It's a combination of indeed the joint Martinez Renewables, but also our preparations for the Singapore startup and the general business growth. We are at the moment, of course, in the process of doing the planning for next year. Like you have seen, the fixed cost rate in renewables has been increasing during the year. We of course have at the same time cost inflation ongoing, et cetera. There may be some additional cost pressure, but this is something that we can then comment on in the following quarter.
Markku, please on the OP.
I'll take the question on the strength of a Q3 on Oil Products. We basically benefit particularly and relatively to maybe some other players on the strength of the middle distillates, given the configuration in Porvoo that produces close to 50% of the overall mix in the middle distillate basket. I think that will be the largest reason. Secondly, we had a full benefit of the natural gas to propane transition in the third quarter. In the second quarter, we implemented the changes, but about a half of the quarter we still operated with natural gas heavy mix for the production of hydrogen. With those two, that explains the strong Q3.
If I come back to the term contract discussion question. If you look at the road transportation sector there, we have been concluding actually quite a few of our contracts in North America already. Those are mostly done. If you look at the European side, we are really in the midst of negotiating them. We see very robust demand also for term-based sales and looking to conclude term contracts very much in line with previous years as well.
Of course, on the aviation side, we have been concluding contracts already for some time now. We also recently announced the long-term contract with Air France-KLM. I mean, on the aviation side, things are progressing already very good for the coming year. For the bulk of the volumes for Europe is we are still in the midst of the negotiations.
All right. This way it's clear. Thank you.
Thank you. We will now take our next question. Your question comes from the line of Peter Low from Redburn. Please ask your question.
Hi. Thanks. The first was just on the logistical constraints and congestion issues you've talked about. Can you comment on where they occurred and what the risk is that they recur in future quarters? The second was on the Inflation Reduction Act in the U.S. As my understanding is the blender's tax credit has been extended through to 2024, but then is potentially switching to be a producer's tax credit after that. Can you comment on whether that's your understanding and how that would impact any volumes you're exporting from Singapore, or indeed Europe, into the U.S. market? Thank you.
Thanks, Peter. Carl here. I'll try to answer the first question on the logistics. We had some delays occur particularly in Rotterdam. And these things can happen especially towards the end of quarter sometimes especially when we have a backwardated market that we were facing in the third quarter where there is a lot of volumes being delivered towards the end of the quarter. At the same time, we typically have been planning our sales volumes to be more evenly distributed.
This is something that we are constantly following and we will continue to try to avoid in coming quarters. I would say that the delays we had in this quarter were exceptional in the size of the magnitude, yeah.
This is Matti. I can take the second question on the Inflation Reduction Act. This is also our understanding that what was part of the Inflation Reduction Act is that the BTC was extended for 2023, 2024. Also, there is an introduction of a SAF BTC for 2023, 2024. But we also understand there is a switch to a producer's tax credit then after 2024, so starting in 2025. I think we still need to understand the criteria how it exactly works what the magnitude of that credit is.
We of course need to understand also all the other mechanisms that are in place that will then determine, of course, what the impact is for our global optimization. This is the information we also have at the moment that there would be a switch to a PTC after 2024.
Thank you.
Thank you. We will take our next question. Your question comes from the line of Zoe Clarke from Goldman Sachs. Please ask your question.
Thank you very much. This is Zoe here. I had two small questions, if I may. The first one is regarding SAF. I appreciate this has been briefly touched on before, but with Singapore effectively coming on stream in just a couple of months time, and with those new contracts and agreements now having been signed, can I confirm with you the prior statement that was made in the past? That is, you would only pursue SAF if the margins that it yields to you are at least the same or higher than what you make in renewable diesel, and presumably you have some better visibility now with the first couple of contracts signed. The second question is relating to your guidance for the renewable product margin.
I understand that you're looking at forward diesel curves, which are in backwardation, but having said that, if we look at the midpoint of that guidance, it effectively implies flat quarter-on-quarter margin on a division which this quarter had higher feedstock costs, negative hedge impact and logistical constraints. It appears a little bit on the conservative side. I just want to better understand the logic behind it. Thank you.
Oh, thank you for the question. This is Matti. I can start with the SAF margin. We have not put in any rules that we could not do deals at a certain margin level. What we have stated that continues to be valid, that we expect longer term that this SAF margin is not dilutive. That of course we do not see why the reason why it should be dilutive, and that is more expectation that we have in the longer run going forward.
With regards to the margins. Carl here. As also commented for this quarter, these markets continue to be very volatile and we are being prudent with our guidance here. It is true that the diesel market is in backwardation and could imply a stronger potential margin if the strength rolls forward. At the same time, we also have to keep in mind that feedstock markets are being very strong at the moment. The tightness is assumed to continue for waste and residues as we are seeing the additional capacity coming on stream. There are a multitude of elements here that is affecting.
Of course, a third element is also the utility costs that are being very strong and potential net gas prices going up towards the Q4 as we approach the winter. Markets are volatile and predicting at this moment is difficult and hence also the wider range.
Very clear. Thank you.
Thank you. We will take our next question. Your question comes from the line of Maria Geronimo from FactSet. Please ask your question. Maria Geronimo, your line is open. Please ask your question. Ms. Geronimo, have you muted your line? As there seems to be no answer, are you happy to move on to the next question?
Yes, that's fine.
Thank you. Please stand by. The question comes from Erwan Kerouredan from RBC. Please ask your question.
Hi, everyone, and thanks for taking my question. I've got two, please. First on the delays and then second on the renewable product sales margin guide. Thanks for the additional color on the logistical hurdles. Can you just clarify please what is in and out of Neste's control, especially regarding what happened in the port of Rotterdam? This is my first question. Then the second question: If we summarize, we have a shift of high margin sales from Q3-Q4 . In addition to that, we have a softening in prices for waste and residues.
Besides a potential negative hedging result lingering into Q4, what are the additional negative factors that push you to guide to what looks like a conservative margin guide from $700 to $400 to $800 per ton for the fourth quarter? These are my two questions. Thank you.
Thanks, Erwan. Carl here. The delay, I mean, we are operating through different terminals, some of which we control and some of which we are commercial. When it comes to these kind of shipping delays, I mean, sometimes you have a lot of vessels approaching the terminal, and that may cause delays. This was exactly what happened now in the end of Q3. With regards to the sales margin. I think I briefly went through the different elements that we are seeing.
Partly it is, you know, the diesel price, which impacts it and the backwardation in the diesel. Then on the other hand, also the waste and residues and veg oils prices which remain volatile. Although they have been coming down and waste and residue prices are softening, we also see a very sort of solid demand in the market. That is definitely impacting us here. Finally, of course, also the concern around natural gas prices and potential impacts then on production cost in the fourth quarter as well. These are the main elements I would say.
Thanks. Can you confirm you are expecting a negative hedging result into Q4 as well, if you can guide on that? Thank you.
Yeah.
That's my last question. Thank you.
Well, this is Martti, CFO. We don't guide on that specifically, but maybe just commenting on the movements between diesel and palm oil after the end of the third quarter. It has become a bit more negative. When that happens, it's not good for our hedging result because we have earlier made hedges at higher levels. When they come to realize, they produce a negative. At the moment, the anticipation based on those movements is that it will be a negative impact in the fourth quarter.
Thank you. That's very helpful. Thank you.
Thank you. We will take our next question. The question comes from the line of Loris Simon from Carnegie. Please ask your question.
Hi, this is Loris Simon from Carnegie. Firstly, related to your U.S. JV. Is your pretreatment facility going to be in use already in early Q3? Secondly, related to global renewable diesel supply. Are you seeing any delays in investment, especially in the U.S. given lower California credit price? My last question is related to depreciations in Renewable Products. Those were some EUR 20 million higher in Q3. Is that a good run rate for Q4? Can you comment anything about Q1 levels? Thank you.
Perhaps, thank you, Loris, for the questions. This is Martti. I can start with the first one, on the U.S. JV. What we have said is that the ramp up happens in phases. The first phase is beginning of 2023, which is then without pretreatment. We have then said that the pretreatment would start during the second half of the year, and then by the end of the year, we would target to reach that full nameplate capacity. Our share 1 million tons. These are the phases we haven't yet detailed when exactly the pretreatment comes on stream in the second half. Hi, Loris, this is Carl. Maybe if I comment on the investment.
We do not really comment on investments made by our companies. Directionally of course, we see that there are some elements in the market that is also probably affecting these investments to some extent now. I think the weakening LCFS prices might impact this over the coming months as well. But yeah, no further comments then on other investments. Yeah. In general, what we have stated earlier that remains valid is that we do expect supply to grow next year quite significantly. We are of course part of it. Neste is growing its capacity, but also other players.
We do see quite a lot of projects coming on stream next year. On the depreciation, it could be a good estimate also going forward.
Thank you.
Thank you. We will take our next question. The question comes from the line of Henry Tarr from Berenberg. Please ask your question.
Hi there, and thanks for taking my questions. Just a couple. The sort of lost volume, I guess, in Q3, is that gonna be made up in Q4? We should expect above average sales volumes in Q4? Or is this sort of somehow sort of lost volume? Then on Singapore, obviously start up of the facility end of Q1. Is it fair to assume I think you've suggested that the SAF agreements will be, you know, you've already made some, so those are largely gonna be met from Singapore. Already the volumes coming out of the extension or expansion are largely sold.
I'm just trying to get a sort of a ramp up for Singapore at this point. Thank you.
Thanks, Henry. This is Carl. I would not classify these as lost volumes. It was a shift of volume from Q3 to Q4 here and our annual sales plan remaining intact, as per planned. Of course, important to note here in the second half overall, is that we had maintenance both in Singapore in Q3, and we are having currently maintenance in Rotterdam, which is impacting, of course, our production volumes and hence also our sales volumes, over the second half of the year. This is a shift of volumes from Q3 to Q4.
This is Matti. I can take the second question on SAF. It is correct if you just look. Currently our production capacity is around 100,000 tons, and it is then only next year that we are growing our capabilities for SAF. Singapore expansion is an important part. After the unit has started up, we expect to reach a capability up to 1 million tons per year for SAF. As you will remember, at the end of the year, we expect to complete also the Rotterdam optionality project, which will then help after 2023 with more capabilities on SAF. We have started making some contracts. You have seen some of our announcements, like we this week announced a contract with Air France-KLM, a long-term one, but that work, of course, continues.
We are also here in the middle of doing different type of term negotiations. You will also remember our whole business model is then based on optionality, so we can then also flexibly choose whether we produce renewable diesel or SAF within the boundaries that we have for those SAF capabilities.
That's great. Thank you. If I may, just to squeeze one more in. On the sales discussions that you're having currently in Europe, I guess they focus largely on volume, but is there any sort of price element in there as well? I know there's lots of other moving parts with diesel feedstock prices hedging, et cetera, but are the sales discussions going positively from a pricing standpoint, or is it neutral, or can you comment on that?
Yes. Thanks, Henry. Unfortunately, I cannot comment on any price discussions with our customers. I mean, these are our commercial discussions where volumes and prices are definitely a central part of the discussion.
Thank you.
I mean, the bigger picture, as I mentioned earlier, is that we see that there is robust demand and for these term volumes in Europe.
Great. Thanks.
Yep.
Thank you. We will take our next question. The question comes from the line of Matthew Lofting from JP Morgan. Please ask your question.
Hi, gents. Thanks for taking the questions. Just two follow-ups at this stage, if I could please. Firstly, just coming back to the deferred volumes from the end of the third quarter, can you just confirm that you expect a full catch-up reversal of that in the fourth quarter and the issues underlying it are fully transitory, rather than structural? If there are any structural elements in there, if you could explain them. Then secondly, on sales allocations, I mean, you've talked at different points on the call around the sort of optionality the business is based around feedstock as well as sales allocations. Could you just talk about progress you're making in terms of enhancing that optionality through new growth markets into 2023 and beyond?
I noticed in particular a press release from the company a few weeks ago around Germany. Thanks.
Thanks. Thanks, Matt. Carl here. I can confirm. They were delayed, these volumes only. The full year volumes remain intact. As I said, we are seeing that the demand for product remains robust currently. In that sense, it's only about the delay.
This is Matti. I also want to confirm. Actually we did a very thorough check on the issue, of course, ourselves, that would this be a, of any indication of market softness? We have come to conclude that no. Those volumes have been now passed and postponed to the fourth quarter, like has been said many times. Just confirming that. It was a, you could call it a negative surprise, the congestion for ourselves regarding our earlier guidance, like I said on my behalf as well. Things like this do happen in this business at various terminals and ports. Some of the issues are really beyond our control.
Coming back to your question on the sales allocation, I mean, this is something, of course, that we have continuously been driving in our model to drive further flexibility and optionality. We are doing that, of course, in the road market, but of course also the aviation and polymers and chemicals are important drivers for driving further flexibility and optionality. Part of that is then of course also building a presence, stronger presence in new markets. For instance, in Germany now, we have introduced a go-to-market, where we are introducing the brand which I believe you alluded to. This is part of the strategy.
Then also what I was commenting earlier on Sweden. I think this is an important element overall that we continue to drive and build our presence in a wider scope also in the road market.
Thank you. We will take our next question. The question comes from the line of Henri Patricot from UBS. Please ask your question.
Yes, everyone, thank you for the presentation. I wanted to ask you about SAF. We've got a couple of follow-ups and one more longer term. Just in the near term for next year, I wanted to check when it comes to the SAF production capacity, do you go straight away up to 1 million ton? Or is there a bit of a ramp-up period over the course of next year? Secondly, again for 2023, what's your best estimate at this point around the sales volumes for SAF for next year based on the contract that you've signed and discussions, or the discussions that you may be having at the moment? Lastly, I wanted to ask more longer term.
We've seen these new contracts that you've signed, and I've seen others from competitors. Seems to be clear good traction, very good interest in SAF. Have your expectations on the pace of growth for SAF over the next few years changed recently? And do you see more potential there? Thank you.
Thanks, Henry. This is Matti. I can perhaps answer. Briefly on the short-term, like for any product, obviously there will need to be a ramp up. First of all, the unit needs to be ramped up, but also the supply chain needs to be ramped up. All the commercial agreements need to be ramped up. I think that's exactly one of our focus areas next year. Whether it's for road transportation, whether it's for aviation or of course for polymers and chemicals. At this point in time, we don't have an exact volume target for SAF. Of course, we'll do our best to ramp up as quickly as we can. On the longer term, I think in a way it's a good observation that there is clearly interest.
I mean, for example, this week there was another announcement for a long-term target by the International Civil Aviation Organization to target net zero aviation in 2050. That's a very long-term target. We also see, of course, regulatory development. There is at the moment discussion, for example, in Europe about introducing an EU-wide mandate for aviation starting in 2025. That would then start growing. At first, a small level, probably the proposal is I think 2%, but then starting to grow. And of course, we also see the type of voluntary demand which is not linked to regulation. There is many airline companies who have their own targets. In general, we look at it as a market which we expect to develop over the coming years.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. We will take our next question. Your question comes from Kate O'Sullivan from Citi. Please ask your question.
Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Finally, just a follow-up on Martinez. Could you indicate the scale of volumes that the pretreatment will cover from mid-next year, or rather what proportion of feedstock could be sourced from waste and residues? Are there any difference in specifications on the feedstock type and quality that will be supplied by Neste and Marathon from this point, considering Neste have a robust waste and residue sourcing network? Just secondly, have you any update on the Walco integration since the closure of the deal in the quarter? Thanks very much.
Thanks. Thanks, Katie. On the Martinez pretreatment facility. As I said, that will come on stream in Q3 and the target is then to create much more flexibility in terms of the feedstock basis. Then it's more of a commercial decision than that, what are the feedstocks that will be used and. Of course, I mean, the pretreatment facility will enable a much wider feedstock pool for the facility. In that sense will be more flexibility and also being in line with the direction we have been going towards more waste and residues.
With regards to the Walco integration, that is proceeding according to our plans and being part of our feedstock platform in Europe. All things going well on that side.
This is Martti. On the feedstock, maybe just adding what Matti already said in the beginning in his opening. We are now saying that our global feedstock supply, the share of waste and residue raw material is expected to stay at above 90% in the coming years. This takes into account also the pretreatment and the Martinez JV. I think it shows our very high commitment to the waste and residue side.
Thanks.
Thank you. We will take our next question. The question comes from the line of Jason Gabelman from Cowen. Please ask your question.
Hey, this is Jason Gabelman from Cowen. Thanks for taking my questions. I guess I wanted to ask you what's the kind of startup profile for the Singapore project. When do you expect that to get to a level where it's? Or I guess I should say, how long does it take to get to a level where it's kinda lined out and generating earnings in line with long-term expectations. My second question is just sales mix between the U.S. and Europe. Is that changing at all in Q4 relative to what you've historically done, just given weakness in some of the environmental credits in the U.S.? Thanks.
Thank you, Jason Gabelman. This is Matti. I'll start with the first question on Singapore. Singapore expansion ramp-up profile. In general, there is, of course, two things. One is the technical start up that takes its time for a large and complex facility. It can be one quarter, two quarters, somewhere in that range. I think more importantly, it's then also, of course, the whole commercial ramp up of ramping up the supply chains and the sales. We can't give, of course, any, let's say, precise estimate of what that is. Our target is, of course, to do that as quickly as possible, and certainly, that's our focus area to do that ramp up during next year.
Jason, this is Carl. Thanks for the question on the sales mix. We'll be continuing to optimize our sales mix and allocation of volumes. Although the LCFS credits have been coming down in the U.S., the RINs have been very supportive. From our perspective, of course, we look at it on an end-to-end basis. Optimizing based on the feedstock cost and then the end product sale. Looking at the North American situation currently, we have been actually selling a bit more here in the third quarter.
We also see very robust demand in North America also for the fourth quarter. Maybe as a general comment on markets and their development, we are seeing that overall, the legislation is now advancing actually at a faster pace in North America. We had some news from Canada on federal mandates and also the demand in U.S. is ramping up and maybe even overtaking the demand in Europe on a little bit more longer term perspective. This is of course something that we are constantly optimizing in our S&OP.
Thanks.
Thank you. There seems to be no further questions, so we'll hand back to the speakers for any closing remarks.
Thank you. This is Matti, and thank you for very good questions, active participation. As we have discussed, conditions in the energy market have been exceptional in the third quarter, and it is likely that the volatility will continue with both geopolitical and decreased macroeconomic challenges. At the same time, I'm confident that we will be able to navigate successfully also through upcoming challenges and continue creating value for our customers, employees, and shareholders. Thank you, and stay safe.
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. The conference will begin shortly. To raise your hand during Q&A, you can dial star one one.