Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Outokumpu Q3 2023 pre-silent conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during this session, you will need to press star one and one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Linda Häkkilä. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Operator. Good afternoon all, and welcome to Outokumpu's Q3 2023 pre-silent call. My name is Linda Häkkilä, I'm the head of Investor Relations here at Outokumpu. With me today, as our main speaker, we have our CFO, Pia Aaltonen-Forsell. As per usual, we will first start with a short introduction, and after that, we are happy to answer your questions. Now, without any further comments, I would like to hand over to our CFO.
Thank you, Linda, and indeed, a good afternoon or a good morning to you all. It is indeed also autumn here in Helsinki, but what can we do? We will try to talk about some positive things and maybe also some things that are indeed still challenging in terms of the market today. But let me move quickly just first to the current market situation, and I wanted to start up with sort of what we see here and now in our order intake and sort of how we understand the markets as we speak.
Maybe I'll still start with just saying that when we had the Q2 release, we already talked about the fact that we saw, let's say, maybe a little bit green sprouts or kind of a little bit of an uptick in the order intake already in July. I would say from really an order intake perspective, what we have seen during this quarter is maybe back to something a little bit more, let's say, reasonable or let's say a little bit more sort of normalizing. We are still definitely talking about a market that is on the weaker side. We are talking about a market where especially appliances segment certainly is very impacted by the overall macro environment, and where distributors are still across the board being fairly cautious.
But we do see sort of, you know, some return to normalcy, and I think we can all observe if we look at CRU price curves, et cetera, that prices have been increasing from indeed very low levels in the order intake during this quarter. And maybe I'll still say that this sort of general comment about, you know, a bit reasonable, but still a market on the weaker side both across the Atlantic. So, you know, this is Europe, this is America. And then, especially for our advanced materials business, what we have seen now is that a couple of those contracts where, you know, earlier during the summer, we were in a waiting mode, you know, waiting to see if they would realize, et cetera, we have actually seen them come through.
I mean, these are like, you know, individual examples, but still fairly important and big projects. That's something that we see now in the order intake. And all in all, I mean, when I say reasonable, I try to somehow illustrate that you know that our lead times, our order books have been shrinking and lead times got shorter and shorter. I think that has stopped now, but we are still on fairly short lead times. I think from Tornio, you know, typically we would talk 6-7 weeks. So, you know, this is shorter than really in normal times, but at least we do not see a decline anymore. Some sort of, you know, reasonable levels there for sure.
Then I will take a step back and try to focus on a bit what we really saw realizing in Q3, really, in terms of, you know, realized volumes, realized invoicing. And here, first of all, I think the volumes followed really exactly what we also said in our guidance for the third quarter. So, I mean, we were talking about a decrease of 5%-15%, which is, you know, this is the seasonal pattern and, you know, maybe it's a seasonal pattern, a bit plus, you know, with the weak market. And I think we are really sort of firmly within that guidance, comfortably, the way I, at least I like it, that we are pretty much there in the middle. So I think it's, you know, that was according to our fairly low expectations.
Then still, how this normally goes is, you know, if we have a lead time of 6-7 weeks, you still have to count in that, you know, order intake during Q2 happened at lower and lower prices. And, you know, those lower prices that were in the spot market in, let's call it a May or June, those are now visible in our realized invoicing in the third quarter. So if we start to see some increases in prices in order intake in July, you know, that could, at the maximum, be visible kind of end September in our invoicing. So, you know, with these sort of lead times, we will still see only in Q4 the benefits of now this, this initial price hikes, not, not really in Q3.
So maybe that was sort of the market side, let's say, overall. I wanted to comment just one thing from operations. Q3 obviously is a quarter with some maintenance breaks, so we will have some higher maintenance costs on the stainless steel side. On the ferrochrome side, we had a slight move of the maintenance break. So it was supposed to start in September, now it has started in October. And I mean, the reason for that was partly internal. We wanted to finish the inventory buildup, but it was also partly just in order to make this in a really smart way, due to, let's say, a lot of projects also in northern Finland, we found that it was much more reasonable to do this a bit later in the autumn.
So, so for us, this was just all in all, holistically, the best way. So that ferrochrome maintenance break has moved, a bit, you know, a few weeks further in time, so it happens now in the fourth quarter. And then nickel. I mean, you have all seen nickel price really coming down, and, and I think that this is maybe the one thing for the Q3 results that I really want to say, that what we see now in terms of what we call the raw material, you know, inventory related gains and losses, and then gains and losses from hedging, or for short, timing and hedging.
What we see here now is more negative than we saw when we gave the Q2 guidance, because nickel prices just con-tinue down, down, down, down, down, and, yeah, down and a bit up, but down again. And we are sort of now clearly below the 20,000 mark. We are at 18,500. And I think with where we saw sort of the month ending, this is not yet the closed books, but this is sort of the calculation based on where the month ended. Instead of being sort of just a little, tiny bit negative as we were foreseeing, with those nickel prices that you have all been able to observe, the timing and hedging impact will be negative EUR 35-40 million in the quarter.
Let me just try to then sort of summarize that from a European perspective, where the realized prices in the third quarter were really impacted by those price declines, you could see sort of in the spot market order intake during Q2. And then combine that with this weak nickel timing losses that are quite substantial, and then, of course, weak volumes. You know, this is a difficult environment to make any kind of profits for Europe. And I think this is quite, you know, time specific. I think the third quarter is typically a weak quarter and a more difficult quarter in Europe, just profit-wise. So this is not seasonally a very weak quarter.
When you add there this big impact from the negative timing, it's sort of a lot of bad things happening all at once. If I look forward, of course, I don't want to guess what the nickel price will be, but I think what we at least now see from sort of the already realized orders is that we are able to book reasonably, also with the spot prices going up, which gives some, let's say, trust to the future. I think more or less that was what I wanted to say up front, really on the stainless side. I think the ferrochrome side, I'm sure you have all observed some important market data that is out there.
Even though demand in ferrochrome is, of course, muted along demand with stainless steel, there's been continued challenges on the supply side, so I think that has kept somewhat of a balance in the market. Our own operations have been running during the third quarter. However, I would say we are yet, let's say, very far from those kind of top quarters, as you may well understand. Then the final point, we have recently spoken already a lot about our strategy, phase three, and we wanted to talk about also our preparations for that. We wanted particularly to highlight Americas as a market with a lot of opportunities going forward, and how we are preparing for that, among other things, by evaluating and assessing our opportunities and options, both when it comes to hot rolling as well as cold rolling.
I just wanted to say we hosted a webcast two weeks ago, where our President for BA Americas, Tamara Weinert, also gave a very detailed explanation, including our readiness to make a decision for the hot rolling. I mean, we continue to work with that. So, I mean, as we speak, we are waiting for the air permit, expecting that we could get that in November. We are also hiring really senior project management and resources into the project. So, I mean, we are continuing to even increase our readiness, and we will, of course, keep you posted on this matter as well if anything relevant comes up. So I think that summarizes my opening words, and I would now be happy to take questions.
Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one and one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. We will take our first question, and the question comes from the line of Patrick Mann from Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Good day, Pia. Thank you very much for the call. Could you just talk a little bit about the Americas division? So, I mean, you spoke quite a bit about Europe and volume down, pricing down, nickel down. Can you just give us a little bit more color on what's happening in the Americas division? And then maybe if you could just talk a little bit about working capital and the balance sheet as well. Thank you.
Yes, indeed. Thank you, Patrick. So on the Americas side, I would first of all say, we have been observing a lot, the distributor data and the inventory data. And the reason obviously being that Americas is a very distributor-focused market, so this is super relevant. And we were past that sort of restocking point in terms of just, you know, tons already in May or June. We haven't seen the sort of real pickup or, you know, kind of the real sort of boost to come. I think we are still observing our customers to be cautious.
We have recently, I think only in the last few weeks, we had a lot of really high-level meetings with our key customers, and I think they are also talking about the higher interest rate environment being so certainly one thing that is, you know, putting a bit of a lid on, you know, also appetite to keep working capital. So there are certainly, you know, the same sort of more almost macro-level uncertainties that are just simply sort of capping at the moment, the appetite to really restock. But we see sort of this, what I would more call, like, replenishment, like, you know, smaller orders. They are coming in. I mean, business is continuing, but our volumes continue to be, you know, there, there's not the...
Q3 is not seasonally a weak quarter, but it's just that we haven't seen that pickup really happening. And, you know, our volumes in Q2 were not that strong. In Americas, just what we have seen in the order intake is that the price levels are obviously still, they have been sort of more stable. They have been stronger if you compare with Europe, but definitely, you know, as things don't start picking up, I think a bit of pressure there as well on the price side has been, let's say, at least sort of tentatively showing up. So the Americas business environment itself is still stronger compared with the European one. I think that's really fair to say. Now, the nickel price decline impacts also in the Americas business.
This timing topic, I, because we haven't closed the book, so I don't have the timing specs yet, per business. If I just think about the nickel risk that we have, then we certainly have sort of, over the long position that we have in the group, it's definitely also coming from the Americas. Maybe it's fair to say that, you know, of our nickel position, typically, you know, we have been, it is one-third in Americas and two-thirds in Europe. With that said, I would expect, you know, some of that negative also to show up in BA Americas. So maybe that's sort of just a sort of a rounded comment on what's going on there at the moment.
And then balance sheet, working capital, from a cash flow perspective, obviously, as we have been, you know, buying less, this has been lower volume environment. And then it also starts with, with, you know, lowering the inventory, starts from the early part of the whole value chain. So I do think that what we will see, particularly towards the end of the year, is still a reduction of the working capital and a reduction of inventories. There is not a dramatic shift between Q2 and Q3. Rather, I would say that the sort of step down really, especially in terms of inventory, I would expect that to happen more in Q4, as we are now also seeing this, you know, some more reasonable, I would say, sort of order intake and pick up then also of deliveries into the fourth quarter.
So what should I say? Overall, from a balance sheet perspective, I am absolutely convinced that we will still have the strongest balance sheet of in our industry at the end of the third quarter. We will probably have a little bit of net debt. So we have had negative net debt for a long time. I think there will be just a sort of a tad of that, but nothing significant. That's what I would expect.
Thanks very much, Pia. Thank you.
Thanks, Patrick.
Thank you. We will take our next question. Your next question comes from the line of Ioannis Masvoulas from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Yes, good afternoon, Pia. Thank you for the call. A couple of questions from my side. The first, around the pricing you're seeing in Europe.... So spot prices have started to move higher, as you suggested, in July, August, and I guess into September. But if we take into account the typical lag that you see in Europe, is it fair to say that pricing could be a headwind in Q4 versus Q3? Or do you think that on a realized basis, that actually could be a positive for the European business? Thank you.
Thank you, Ioannis . Based on everything I see right now, it's gonna be positive quarter-on-quarter. I think the real headwind is in Q3, because a lot of that decline in the prices happened during the second quarter, and then that kind of realized in invoicing in the third quarter. When I look at the realized invoicing figures, I can see sort of a small pickup already at the very end of September. I think that's kind of the direction we are going in. But, you know, just to sort of keep it, keep the expectations under control, I think it is exactly like you say, that there is always this delay.
So, you know, in July, we saw an order intake, a small improvement, in the pricing, and then that translated into a small improvement, maybe at the end of September in the realized invoicing. And that's kind of where we start from then.
Okay, perfect. Thanks for that. And the second question around the going back to the tolling contract with ArcelorMittal. As you suggested, there is no update as of today, but is there any engagement between you and them in terms of potential extension of the contract? Or would that not be your preferred way forward if you had that option?
Yeah, it's a really good question, but I wanna really start by saying that we have a really good relationship locally, and we are talking continuously. So I think it's only natural that, you know, we would talk about, you know, operational things and contractual things, et cetera. So I mean, we have a good dialogue. And, you know, when we are assessing our own options, of course, it means that we need to assess available options from sort of all circumstances. And, you know, there's no hiding that we have been pretty excited about the project, and I'm sure if you saw Tamara, you know, you can confirm that.
And that we are really, you know, when we learn more and when we increase our readiness, I think that's also, you know, very healthy for then being able to make proper assessments.
Okay, understood. And maybe related to that, is there any update on the potential EBITDA contribution if you were to go ahead with the project? Because you've given us enough information around the CapEx and even a potential working capital benefit. But is there any timeline where you could come out with an update on what sort of EBITDA accretion we should be expecting?
Yeah. Yeah, thanks. I don't have an update on that today, and, and, you know, from a CFO's perspective, that's typically a thing that I would also love to keep pressure on, you know, until we arrive at the time for the decision. So I think, you know, realistically, I would assume that this is something that we would then, you know, combine and, and, you know, have sort of concluded on internally also at the point, you know, if and when we arrive to an investment decision point. So I don't have an update on that now.
Okay. Okay, that's very clear. And then just a last question on the U.S., the Americas business. If we look at base prices from CRU, they show that they've been extremely stable. It seems like on the volume side, there is potentially not a big change quarter-over-quarter. But if we were to think about your EBITDA in Q3 versus Q2 in Americas, how should we think about the different moving parts? I mean, is pricing really stable? Are you actually seeing some sort of pressure? I'm interested to hear your thoughts on that.
I think the market is definitely not a strong market. It's, it's, yeah, kind of borderline reasonable in the third quarter. Because the volumes remain pretty low, I mean, just if, even if volumes are stable compared with the second quarter, those are still kind of in a historical context, those are still low volume. I would say it always also leads to a situation where on the margin, you know, you need to, you need to recognize some pressure on the pricing. I don't think there is any drama around that. I do think, you know, this is, this is not a strong market environment, so just wanna be open with that.
I think the real topic here is as well, you know, a bit of pressures from the metal side, because we see this decline in nickel during the quarter. So that is definitely a pressure sort of a bit to the negative side.
Very clear. Thanks very much, Pia.
Thank you.
Thank you. We will take our next question. Your next question comes from the line of Anssi Raussi from SEB. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Thanks. Hi, all, and thank you, Pia, for the recap. A couple of questions, and the first one about costs. So are there any major items, for example, energy costs, if you think about Q3 compared to Q2? And also this maintenance cost. So just to make sure, is it so that the whole EUR 10 million ferrochrome maintenance impact will be seen in Q4? And is this other EUR 10 million maintenance cost still expected in Q3 numbers?
. Yes, yes. So, so first on that maintenance, that other EUR 10 million, that's the stainless side, and that is, you know, according to our earlier expectations. So that's the EUR 10 million addition quarter on quarter from Q2 to Q3, and that's on the stainless side. And then on the ferrochrome side, that extra maintenance cost is moving to the fourth quarter. And when we were earlier talking about this EUR 10 million negative impact in ferrochrome, that was a combination of additional maintenance costs and then kind of the lost contribution for some, some volume.
Okay, clear. And then no other major, like, cost.
Nothing else, like, really major. I mean, I think on electricity, I mean, you may have observed that in Finland, for example, there was both a little bit of pressure on the prices in August, and then there's been a really good sort of environment in September from a consumer perspective. So I think that in the end, sort of, kind of evens out a little bit. So we still have this fairly high hedging ratio. I would say, you know, globally or Europe is more important here, 65%-70%. So we still had some open as well in the quarter. And I think the way things turned out, it's really pretty even, you know, from Q2 to Q3. So nothing sort of extraordinary there.
I think we said before that we are targeting now to really start to see deflation, for example, in consumables, et cetera. And I think a lot of the contracts are renegotiated, et cetera, but there are many that reset only from first of January. There are some contracts that could reset towards the end of the year. So kind of Q2 to Q3, I see that it eases up a little bit, but we are talking, you know, on the cost side, overall, kind of EUR single-digit millions. So then the maintenance cost, kind of, you know, that eats up the benefits that we are then potentially getting from some other sub areas.
Okay, great. Thanks. And then about the scrap market, like, how does the market look there? Are the prices following nickel prices? Of course, maybe some lag, but how do you see that market?
Yeah, the scrap market is a really interesting one. So I wanna start by saying that we have been able to access all the scrap that we have needed in this market condition. And I think that particularly earlier, but this was maybe more Q2, there were also some, what I would call opportunities, that we were able to benefit from. I do see that the market has been somewhat tightening during the third quarter. However, still from our perspective, you know, not a problem of availability, you know, not a problem of some sort of, you know, spike in prices or anything like that, but clearly kind of going a bit in the tighter direction.
Your question about the link to LME pricing is super interesting, because I can say that there's clearly also a link to NPI-based raw material cost, for example, priced in China. So there are like these, you know, kind of some floors that are sort of maybe, you know, dynamically developing in the market. But this is very dynamic, you know, this is very dynamic, and it's really a matter of demand and supply, and then with links to other sort of relevant key metrics. So what would I expect here now going forward? I think it's equally important how the demand on the stainless side develops as it is, then, you know, what we can see happening on the LME nickel side.
But I mean, on the LME side, the nickel price pressure has just been down. S o that, that certainly, certainly sort of, you know, maybe that should give some relief, let's say. Let's see.
Okay, thank you. That's all from me.
Thank you, Anssi.
Thank you. We will take our next question. Next question comes from the line of Krishan Agarwal from Citigroup. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Hi, Pia, and thanks for taking my question. Most of them have been asked. If I can ask on Europe, I mean, you mentioned that, you know, there are multiple things going negative at the same time, lower volume pricing and inventory, and probably it was not a great time to make profit. So how do we, how do you think about the European profitability as we speak? I mean, for the month of October, on the spot basis. Excluding the inventory mark to market from the question, are you still making some money or it is at a very low level, if at all you are making?
Yeah, I think we are still at a low level. And now it also depends on sort of how quickly the increases in spot prices that you can observe from the price list, you know, kind of how quickly those then can actually kick in. So I think it's still like a balancing act during October. And the improvements, you know, there is this lag of at least 6-7 weeks at the minimum, in terms of, you know, really visibility in real life prices. So I don't think October is like a great month yet. But I would say maybe the determining factor here in the end will be also.
How sort of big movements relatively we will see also in nickel, because that impacts, you know, also just the value of the nickel that we have currently in inventory, that, that impacts, the pricing out, et cetera. So I do think, you know, it will depend also on what we see now during the month here. But it definitely feels, you know, a tough environment, to make money, even during October, even though we can see sort of an improvement path.
Understand. And then quickly on volume. So Q3 is not a seasonal quarter in U.S., but Q4 is sort of the half of the quarter because of the holiday. So the volumes there probably, you know, goes down, and then recovery into the Europe is still at a very early stage. So a kind of a flat volume scenario in the Q4 is a more likely scenario, rather than the C- nickel uptick?
Yeah, Christian, thanks. I do think you captured a lot of the, you know, sort of key drivers that we see right now. I mean, we will come back with the guidance only when we do the Q3 report. But I do think you are capturing some of the dynamics. We will still follow here now a bit sort of how the order intake develops, also for U.S., to really then be able to confirm what we think about the full Q4.
Yeah. And the final question on ferrochrome. I mean, you have ramped up the production in the Q2 a lot but then you're saying that Q3 was a, you know, weak volume quarter. So did you have to adjust the production lower again, or was it sort of okay as the last year, Q2 level?
Yeah. It was not a great production, you know, quarter. We did not fully stop any furnaces, but we have done a little bit of this optimization and, you know, kind of not being able to sort of crank out really, to the fullest. But we have also built some inventory. I'll just repeat that. So the delivery volumes will not be sort of the normal quarterly volumes. They will be lower because we wanted to build some inventory here in front of the maintenance break.
Understand. Understand. Okay, that's it from my side.
Thank you, Krishan.
Thank you. We will take our next question. Your next question comes from the line of Bastian Synagowitz from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Yeah, thanks, and good afternoon, all of you. I have a couple of questions, please. So first is actually also a follow-up on ferrochrome, I guess, where we just ended. You said that you're shifting the maintenance break into the fourth quarter. Obviously, you also now said that you're building a bit of inventory so you don't get the full benefit from shipments, which I think last quarter were also still slightly below where they would be. And I guess generally, the d ivision obviously still is slightly below the levels where it typically would be at these very high ferrochrome prices, even though the quarterly settlement has been down. Will there be any tailwind still from energy cost? I think you were referring to that maybe more in the European context or European stainless context.
Will there still, still any major benefit from energy? So with that shift of the maintenance break into the fourth quarter, does it mean that ferrochrome could actually be pretty stable here into Q3?
Right. I think a couple of important elements there. First, on energy, that's also valid for ferrochrome, so there is really no uptick or kind of no benefit from that. I would say I would be a little bit, you know, Q2 was still for us a bit of this kind of quarter where we were, you know, we wanted to ramp up after we really had some significant stops during the first quarter. Now what we had to sort of deal with during the third quarter was then, one, that we wanted to build up some inventory ahead of the inve you know, bigger maintenance break, because it's the big furnace that goes under maintenance. So we knew kind of upfront we wouldn't deliver that much, but perhaps keep on sort of producing.
And then I think that our production volume has not been quite as high as we originally planned, because the demand also from our own kind of sales deliveries has been weaker. So we have been in an environment. I mean, we typically sell like three quarters internally, and as you see that our sales volumes are down, then of course, the demand internally for ferrochrome has been down. So it has been, from that sense, let's say that the internal market has been weaker than maybe what was sort of really planned initially here. So what should I say about ferrochrome quarter on quarter? Maybe I'll be a little bit cautious, simply because we don't really give, you know, the guidance for business area by business area.
But I'm just gonna say that there are really no tailwinds, and the volume side is a bit on the negative side. So with that said, you know, this is maybe one of those, you know, not a quarter that will go to history as great.
Okay. Okay, very clear. Now, thanks for guiding us a little bit here. If we add things up here, now, obviously there's the inventory effect from nickel, which you highlighted. Obviously, there's volumes over probably a relatively difficult market environment. If you add things up here, do you think that there is a risk that we fall not just below the, say, lower end of the, I think, normalized run rate of EUR 500 million-EUR 600 million, I guess maybe even below the EUR 100 million threshold here? Do you think there's actually more risk to that?
Well, I see that there's a lot of negative accumulating in one quarter, so that's really what I wanna highlight, and that is because I see risks, you know, kind of compared to what would be kind of a normalized run. Because if we have this kind of a timing hit, and it really go with, like, exceptionally low prices in Europe, and then the volumes are kind of down by normal seasonality, you know, then there's a lot of headwinds, and I cannot really imagine what the tailwind would be right now that would then compensate for all of this.
So, I think it's fair to summarize that, you know, this quarter has had, you know, also as according to our expectations, I mean, we try to highlight many of these things and the challenge in the European market already in our outlook. So, you know, this is indeed a quarter with significant headwinds, and I think that this nickel price decline that you have all been able to observe, I think that just brings that additional pressure in an already weak quarter. And when that additional pressure is EUR 35 million-EUR 40 million, you know, that's in percentages, that's a very significant portion of the result that we could otherwise make.
Okay. Okay, all right. Thanks. Thanks so much for your help.
Yeah. Thanks, Matthew.
Thank you. We will take our next question. Your next question comes from the line of Moses Ola from JP Morgan. Please go ahead, your line is open.
Hi, thank you very much for taking my question. I guess my question is a little bit of a follow-up to the last question. Obviously, the normalized run rate target is still for EUR 500 million-EUR 600 million, based on historical base prices of 1,000 EUR per ton which we're currently very far away from, currently. I guess, should we expect maybe an update to this target or any sensitivities to the base price, perhaps maybe not reaching back to EUR 1,000 level? I mean, if you look at the outlook long term for nickel prices as well, with the oversupply of Class I and Class II nickel, there's still likely medium-term to long-term downside risk for nickel price. So, you know, how confident are you in being able to maintain current, midterm targets?
And what implications could that have for the group, if base prices aren't normalized by 2025?
Yeah. Moses, thank you very much for that question. The way I see it right now is that, we are indeed in a quarter where, you know, the base price is very far below EUR 1,000. Usually, how I would think about it is that, you know, we have sort of things that move a bit in tandem. So, you know, you have nickel price lower, maybe, maybe sort of base price, base price, you know, stabilizing. You know, maybe there are other elements, our own improvements, et cetera, kick in. So, you know, I don't feel a need as we speak to update that view kind of on the normalized.
But I do wanna be very open that, you know, where we stand, particularly in this quarter, it's in one of those, you know, sort of points in time where just, you know, you kind of get, you know, all the, you know, bad things in your neck. I don't wanna use sort of bad language here. But, you know, it's one of those quarters where you just sort of get everything at one time. And I do see the green sprouts for Q4, but that also doesn't mean that we are back to kind of normal speed in Q4. It just means that probably the low point is sort of passed by now.
So I would say, you know, if I would see this as sort of a longer term thing, you know, now going sort of if I look, you know, one year ahead or something, and, you know, I couldn't see us as kind of coming to that normalized level, then I would certainly consider updating or, you know, trying to give some guidance on sort of how this whole thing, in our view, sort of goes together. But as I see it, it's more of a, you know, a point in time that is particularly difficult. I would not update that normalized right now.
Just for my confirmation, thanks very much for that answer. Just for my understanding, so do you expect, as of now, for ferrochrome to operate at a normalized run rate for 2024, i.e., above 90%? Excluding seasonality, of course.
Yeah, yeah, sure. Thanks for that question. I think two things need to happen for that. And I think it's a little bit of a timing issue there. Do we already at, you know, initially and at the start of the year, sort of come back to something where sort of the stainless demand, the stainless volumes are bounding up? And I think it's a little bit early to talk about that now, even though we see some sort of reasonable level right now. But I think, like, overall, I mean, the stainless steel market, for example, in Europe, I mean, overall, it's lower from my perspective than in COVID. I mean, these volumes expected for this year, at least what I think, I mean, this is a very weak market environment.
So I think the ferrochrome also is, you know, dependent on that, and we will have more visibility during the fourth quarter, and then we will talk about that. And then obviously the other thing is that, ferrochrome was the business that was really impacted by the energy shocks. And we do have a good hedging level. You know, we are 65%-70% all through next winter, but still it impacts, you know, on the margin, should we have really some sort of a shock. I don't see that shock in my cards right now, but that is a thing we need to keep an eye on and react to, you know, if need be.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Moses.
Thank you. We will take our next question. Your next question comes from the line of Anssi Raussi from SEB. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Thanks. I have just one more from me. I think, Pia, you mentioned that you have received some orders for advanced products for Q4. If you think about that the pricing environment improves in basic products in Q4 compared to Q3 in order intake, how significant would this like mix improvement be in Q4?
Hey, that's a really good question. I guess I need to come back to that in our guidance if I really see that it's kind of, you know, big enough to merit a comment. At the moment, I would say that it helps to sort of put at least from my perspective, you know, things a bit in the right perspective. So we are back on that track where we also, you know, get some of these bigger project orders, where during Q2, we were really just, you know, waiting and you know, things were sort of, you know, in wait and see mode or sort of, you know, in this kind of a bit of a standstill.
So we have received orders for advanced materials, obviously, sort of throughout the period, but, uh, there was a lack of this sort of realization of, of some of the bigger projects. You know that what is typical also for these bigger projects is then that they go over several quarters. So it's, it's not typical that they would like realize all in one quarter, but we will see some of these positives already in the fourth quarter for sure. So Anssi, I will come back when we give the guidance, if, if there is really so big that it really kind of notches up the mix quarter on quarter.
Okay, that's clear. Thank you so much.
Yeah, thanks.
There seems to be no further questions at this time. I would like to hand back for closing remarks.
Thank you, operator. Thank you everyone for participating in our call today. Before we close the call, I would like to remind you that we will start our silent period on October eighth and continue until our Q3 results are published on November seventh. Now, thank you once again, and have a great day.
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.