Türkiye Vakiflar Bankasi Türk Anonim Ortakligi (IST:VAKBN)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2023

Feb 6, 2024

Cihan Ersoy
Investor Relations Spokesperson, Türkiye Vakıflar Bankası Türk Anonim Ortaklığı

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to VakıfBank year-end 2023 bank-only earnings results webcast. We will have a question and answer session following the presentation. If you would like to submit your questions, you can send any time by clicking the Q&A button at the bottom of your Zoom screen. Now, I will leave the floor to our host, Mr. Ali Tahan, Head of International Banking and Investor Relations. Mr. Tahan, the floor is yours.

Ali Tahan
Head of International Banking and Investor Relations, Türkiye Vakıflar Bankası Türk Anonim Ortaklığı

Thank you, Cihan Bey. Good afternoon, everybody, and welcome to year-end VakıfBank earnings presentation conference call. Apart from myself, I have Nihan, Head of Investor Relations with me, as well as all the investor relations colleagues, Murat, Nagehan, Mümtaz, and all of our investor relations colleagues. As usual, we will go through the important pages of the presentation rather than, every, entire presentation. Thereafter, we will be sharing our expectations and guidance for entire 2024. Thereafter, we will leave the floor to your questions if there are any, both written and audio calls. Starting with the presentation, in this quarter, VakıfBank announced TRY 10 million quarterly net income, which is also in line with the market consensus.

On top of this reported TRY 10 billion net income, which is the highest quarterly net income of 2023, we also set aside TRY 4.3 billion pre-provisioning during the quarter. Therefore, apart from reported TRY 10 billion net income quarterly, adjusted with this pre-provisioning, our quarterly net income would be TRY 14.3 billion. That adjusted net income of TRY 14.3 billion take us to above than 35% quarterly average ROE. With reported TRY 10 billion, we are having TRY 25 billion full year net income in the year of 2023, which is up by 4% compared to a year ago.

This TRY 25 billion annual cumulative net income corresponds to 18% average ROE, which is in line with our recently updated full- year ROE guidance related to 2023. In terms of the highlights of the quarter, of course, especially this quarter, the increase in core banking revenues seems to be eye-catching. Compared to a quarter ago, our core banking revenues increased 72% Q-on-Q from TRY 22.2 billion to more than TRY 38 billion, which is mainly supported by CPI linkers interest income contribution, as well as a very robust fee income generation.

Equally important in this quarter, apart from the pre-provisioning of TRY 4.3 billion, we increased entire coverage ratios across the board, starting from Stage I coverage ratio to Stage II coverage ratio, as well as total NPL cash coverage ratio to total NPL coverage ratio. Starting with the Stage I coverage ratio, entire portfolio now has 1.3% coverage, which was 1.1% a quarter ago and 0.7% a year ago. In this sense, during the entire year of 2023, conservatively and proactively, we almost doubled our Stage I coverage ratio year-over-year basis. At the same time, Stage II coverage ratio during this quarter also increased 1 percentage point from almost 23 percentage points to 24 percentage points.

We have a very strong NPL cash coverage ratio hovering around 81%-82%. All in all, this coverage ratio increase via Stage I, Stage II, and Stage III enable us to deliver all-time high in the history of VakıfBank entire NPL coverage ratio, which for the first time exceeded 300% threshold and materialize at 310 percentage points. Continuing with the other key slides. For the effective usage of time, I am passing page three and page four. I just want to take your attention to net interest margin slide on page five. This quarter, quarterly reported net interest margin came at 5.3%. Swap-adjusted net interest margin came at 4%.

Both ratios, reported wise as well as swap-adjusted wise, these numbers corresponds to the best quarterly net interest margin performance of the year. Thanks to this recovery in our net interest margin, mainly supported by both CPI linkers' effect as well as a huge improvement compared to a quarter ago. In our Turkish Lira core spread business, those quarterly relatively strong numbers enabled us to deliver 2.9% average full year net interest margin for 2023, and 2.3% swap-adjusted net interest margin for the full year. On the left-hand side above chart, you are also seeing the CPI linker impact in our net interest margin. This quarter, we had around TRY 33 billion interest income from our CPI portfolio, adjusted with the actual October to October data.

That number was TRY 26.2 billion a quarter ago. In this sense, we almost have additional TRY 5 billion more interest income from our CPI linkers portfolio in Q4. Apart from that, I mean, starting the year in the first quarter of 2024, we are taking into consideration a 39% October to October data number for 2024, and this assumption will result in around TRY 16 billion interest income in the first quarter. Q-on-Q-wise, from the fourth quarter of 2023 to first quarter of 2024, interest income contribution from CPI linkers will come down to almost half of it, compared to a quarter ago, from TRY 33 billion to TRY 16 billion.

We believe, to some extent, this decline and this support in the CPI linkers will be compensated by further improved Turkish Lira core spread business in the first quarter of 2024. At the middle of the page at the right-hand side, we also put average interest rate evolution of Turkish Lira floating loan portfolio. Especially in the second half of the year, in line with the increase in the policy rate of central bank, there is a very quick and fast recovery in the average interest yield of our short dated Turkish Lira loan portfolio. During third quarter, it was 31%, and during Q4, it further increased to 45%.

Therefore, as a result of such shift, such quick repricing in our Turkish Lira loan portfolio, average loan yields automatically increased dramatically, especially in the second half of the year. This enabled us to have almost 580 basis points improvement in our Turkish Lira core spreads during Q4 compared to third quarter. Next page, page six, is related to fee income. Apart from CPI linkers, especially in Q4, fee income was also supporting our core revenue generation capacity. Q-on-Q-wise, we have 35% increase from TRY 7 billion to TRY 9.5 billion. Cumulatively, our full year fee income generation materialized at almost TRY 26 billion, which is up by 139% compared to full year of 2022.

During the entire year of 2023, especially fee generation capacity via payment systems seems to be very strong and eye-catching. On a year-over-year basis, on the payment side, we have almost 245% increase, and it also had an impact, dramatic impact, very visible impact within, the fee and commission income breakdown. Out of total net fees and commissions, as of 2023 year-end, 40%, above 40%, comes from payment system. That number was lower than 27% a year ago. Especially payment systems had a very big increase in the entire fee breakdown. Equally important, we also have another above 40% contribution from cash lending related fees. Those two items, payment system related fees and cash lending related fees, have lion's share with above 80%.

The remaining parts are mainly coming from either non-cash lending related fees and also from insurance related fees. Especially during the second half of the year, as well as during the entire year of 2023, fee income growth was very supportive for the entire revenue generation capacity. Especially in Q4, one of the best upside of VakıfBank in terms of fee generation capacity, we also outperformed quarterly fee income generation compared to entire banking sector. Our number was 35% versus 26% for the entire sector. The next slide we would like to take your attention is related to page eight. On page eight, you can see the quarterly and annual lending growth. Total lending growth in this quarter was 8.4%, slightly lower than the sector average of 9%.

However, in this quarter, unlike the previous three quarters, there were much more balanced lending growth between Turkish Lira lending and hard currency lending. This time, hard currency lending growth, quarterly wise, was in the positive territory in dollar terms. It was up by 5.1% Q-on-Q, and Turkish Lira lending was up by 6.3% Q-on-Q. In terms of the ranking, we are still keeping our strong second position in terms of the market share in total lending, as well as our second ranking in Turkish Lira lending. We also have third ranking in our Turkish Lira loan portfolio. Our market share is hovering around 12%-13% in the total lending area.

In terms of market share gaining and loosening, in line with our selective lending strategy, during the entire year of 2023, we were increasing our market share in corporate and commercial lending. We were keeping our almost 11.8% market share as unchanged in SME lending. On the retail lending, especially because of the relatively big competition of the private peers, we were losing some ground. Our market share on retail decreased from 11.6% a year ago to 10.5% as of 2023 year-end. This kind of market share gaining and loosening within the lending segment seems to be in line with our strategical areas, selective lending strategy.

On the next page, you can also see the breakdown of loan portfolio in terms of currency breakdown and interest structure profile. Especially in the Turkish Lira lending side, almost 75% of the entire Turkish Lira loan portfolio now in the form of floating rate versus slightly more than 25% is in the form of fixed rate. On the hard currency side, this is also more or less same, 70% floating versus 30% fixed. This is, we believe, the ideal composition of interest rate structure within our loan portfolio. Another point we would like to mention is related to asset quality. This is one of the important developments of the quarter during Q4.

Q4 net cost of risk came at 350 basis points. This quarterly net cost of risk seems to be one of the highest in recent years. Such quarterly increased level of net cost of risk resulted full year net cost of risk number of 210 basis points. On top of this, very conservative net cost of risk ratio, separately, we also put additional TRY 4.3 billion additional free provisioning in this quarter. This net cost of risk ratios, both quarterly and cumulatively numbers, they are a clear reflection of our appetite to build up additional buffer, which is in line with our proactive and conservative approach in terms of provisioning.

In terms of NPL ratio and Stage II ratios, because of the write-off and because of the collection performance, our NPL ratio as well as because of the denominator effect, our ratio, NPL ratio continued to decline from 1.5% a quarter ago to 1.3%. However, despite this decline, we are still having around 81% NPL cash coverage ratio. However, in the Stage II category, this quarter, we have increase in the share of Stage II within total loan portfolio. A quarter ago, it was 6.7%, but now, especially thanks to a big commercial file which we classified under SICR, and this commercial file is related to a construction company. The share of Stage II increased to 7.8% from 6.7%.

Compared to year-end 2022, still we see decline in the share of Stage II in total lending. A year ago, it was 8.3%. Despite recent quarterly increase, still it is below than a year ago. Of course, this is also related to denominator effect. But net cost of risk on the asset quality and proactive provisioning seems to be the most important development on the asset quality side. Next page is related to deposit side. On the left-hand side below chart, we also put quarterly and annual deposit growth in comparison to sector numbers. In this quarter, we have about a 15% total deposit growth. Similar to the lending side, quarterly deposit growth was also well-balanced between Turkish deposit as well as hard currency deposits.

Hard currency deposits in dollar terms are up by 4.7% Q-on-Q, which is very similar to hard currency lending growth. Therefore, hard currency loan to deposit ratio changed very slightly. However, Turkish deposit growth was also very visible in this quarter with almost 16%-17%. We are also keeping our strong ranking and strong market share in the total deposit market with the market shares ranging between 12%-14%. The last point we would like to mention in terms of the deposits portfolio, for the first time as of Q4 2023, our Turkish Lira term deposits amount exceeded TRY 1 trillion threshold and almost came to TRY 1.1 trillion level.

That was also the case for our Turkish Lira commercial loan portfolio. In this quarter, we had many firsts, and these are the important highlights of the balance sheet growth. For this efficient usage of time, we don't want to touch to the other pages in the presentation. Before leaving the floor to your questions, in a nutshell, we would like to also give the important points of our expectations related to 2024, related to only VakıfBank financials. Starting with the lending side, for this year of 2024, for Turkish Lira lending side, our budget seems to be targeting Turkish Lira lending growth of high teens. Last year in the year of 2023, it materialized at 60% area.

Because of relatively high base and because of some shift from Turkish Lira lending, especially on the commercial side, to hard currency, starting to the budget, we are putting high teens Turkish Lira lending growth. On the FX lending side, we are also putting a low single digit growth in dollar terms, which is also the case in entire year of 2023. In the year of 2023, we had 2.6% hard currency lending growth in dollar terms, and we expect this kind of relatively limited low single digit hard currency lending growth in dollar terms. On the revenue side, I mean, for this year of 2024, we expect our swap-adjusted net interest margin to increase by 50-100 basis points increase compared to 2023 year end.

Just to remind you, the number in 2023, our swap-adjusted net interest margin level was 2.3%. In other words, on top of this 2.3%, we expect additional net interest margin recovery of 50-100 basis points improvement. Despite relatively weaker contribution from CPI linkers, we expect it will be compensated by a relatively better Turkish Lira core spread during the entire year of 2024. Therefore, we are putting an improvement in our swap-adjusted net interest margin compared to previous year. On the fee side, which was very supportive for 2023, as a reminder, last year, our fee income growth was 139%.

On top of this growth, on top of this figure, we expect our fee income generation growth will be above than inflation, for full year in the year of 2024. Our guidance on the fee side is above than inflation. On the cost side, of course, adjusted with the donation, we had in the year of 2023, we are expecting our cost growth and OpEx growth, to be hovering around 50%, 50%. On the asset quality, we only have net cost of risk guidance rather than NPL ratio, rather than any other metrics. We believe for the current environment in terms of asset quality guidance, net cost of risk, expectation seems to be much more meaningful.

We expect our net cost of risk to be hovering around 150 basis points again, which was 210 basis points during the entire year of 2023. All those assumptions related to lending, related to swap-adjusted net margin, related to fee income and OpEx and net cost of risk will enable us to generate another high teens average ROE for the full year. In this sense, ROE-wise, we expect our performance will be same compared to 2023. In the year of 2023 it was, average ROE-wise it was 18%, and we expect another high teens average ROE for the full year. These are the points we would like to share in a nutshell about our guidance for the full year.

If there are any audio questions, we would like to continue with it, and at this stage we would like to leave the floor to Cihan Bey again. Thank you.

Cihan Ersoy
Investor Relations Spokesperson, Türkiye Vakıflar Bankası Türk Anonim Ortaklığı

Thank you. Thank you, Mr. Tahan. Now, as you heard, we are heading to our Q&A session. We have a Q&A button at the bottom of your Zoom screen. You can type your questions, or if you prefer to join the call to ask your audio questions, you can click the Raise Hand button. We are waiting for audio questions. We have a question from Cihan Saraoğlu, HSBC.

Cihan Saraoğlu
Equity Analyst, HSBC

Hello. Can you hear me?

Cihan Ersoy
Investor Relations Spokesperson, Türkiye Vakıflar Bankası Türk Anonim Ortaklığı

Yeah. Yes.

Ali Tahan
Head of International Banking and Investor Relations, Türkiye Vakıflar Bankası Türk Anonim Ortaklığı

Yes

Cihan Ersoy
Investor Relations Spokesperson, Türkiye Vakıflar Bankası Türk Anonim Ortaklığı

Yes, we can.

Cihan Saraoğlu
Equity Analyst, HSBC

Okay. Thank you very much for the presentation, Ali. My question is about the free provisions. What's the rationale behind setting aside such high free provisions in the quarter, although you had already very high cost of risk? I understand the volatility in CPI linker revenues, but at the same time, when I look at the capital adequacy ratio, Common Equity Tier 1 of, like, 10%, which is only 150 basis points above the regulatory threshold, and the relatively low loan growth guidance for next year, I think you could have used that money to beef up your capital ratio. I'm a little bit curious about the rationale behind the free provisions. Thank you very much.

Ali Tahan
Head of International Banking and Investor Relations, Türkiye Vakıflar Bankası Türk Anonim Ortaklığı

Thank you, Cihan. Actually, the reasoning for free provisioning is related to P&L volatility, as you truly pointed out, related to fluctuations we will be having in terms of interest income on CPI portfolio during Q1 versus Q4 of last year. In order to not end up with too much P&L and earnings volatility, our senior management decided to set aside such free provisioning. Probably it will be resolved again and released again in the first quarter of 2023. In terms of the impact of this TRY 4.3 billion, given the total asset size of VakıfBank as of year-end is hovering around $95 billion.

Out of that RWA number is hovering around almost $65 billion. The capital adequacy ratio impact of this TRY 4.3 billion seems to be negligible. My point is, even in case we didn't set aside such free provisioning, and in case we reflect this in our P&L, still, capital adequacy ratios we will be publishing in this environment wouldn't be such differential compared to current reported numbers. Rather than solvency ratio impact, the real motivation for such free provisioning was related to manage earnings volatility at a lower spectrum rather than potential one because of the CPI linkers portfolio.

Cihan Saraoğlu
Equity Analyst, HSBC

Thank you very much.

Ali Tahan
Head of International Banking and Investor Relations, Türkiye Vakıflar Bankası Türk Anonim Ortaklığı

Thank you, Cihan.

Cihan Ersoy
Investor Relations Spokesperson, Türkiye Vakıflar Bankası Türk Anonim Ortaklığı

Thank you for your question, Cihan Bey. We have another question from Waleed Mohsin from Goldman Sachs.

Waleed Mohsin
Managing Director and Head of CEEMEA Research, Goldman Sachs International

Hi, Ali Bey. Thank you for the presentation. Couple of questions please from my side. First, on the lending volume growth, you had a good quarter, especially in terms of FX lending. Your lending growth was quite balanced between TL and FX, as you pointed out. You know, when I looked at that quarterly performance, I would have expected when you talked about your loan growth expectation for 2024, you might have been more optimistic on the FX lending side as well as the TL lending side. Any particular reason you were being conservative? I mean, obviously you explained that on the Turkish Lira side, it's a base impact as well, but perhaps some thoughts on the FX side.

On the TL side, it seems that you will be growing below market this year. Your thinking process on that would be much appreciated. Secondly, on the margin side this year, in the fourth quarter, you mentioned there was around 580 basis points of core spread improvement. When we think about the next year, you have given guidance for the full year, but if you could just talk a little bit about your core spread improvement during the year, like, you know, when do you expect core spreads to, you know, in terms of the quarterly evolution, that you expect. Some of your peers are actually guiding for core spreads to tighten in the first half and then widen in the second half.

Just wanted to get your sense of how you think core spreads would pan out during 2024. Thank you.

Ali Tahan
Head of International Banking and Investor Relations, Türkiye Vakıflar Bankası Türk Anonim Ortaklığı

Thank you, Waleed. Starting with the first question on the lending side. I mean, yes, especially in Q4, because of the relatively high interest rate, all the banks in Turkey are charging for Turkish commercial rates. On a compound basis, those numbers are ranging between or hovering around 60%, let's say. Rather than borrowing from commercial banks with the compound rate of 60%, despite additional depreciation expectation, from borrower point of view, it was making much more sense to apply for a fixed lending, as you can imagine. Therefore, the high quality demand rather than Turkish side for a fixed lending during Q4 was visible, and those are coming mainly from blue-chip corporate companies of Turkey.

Therefore, rather than SMEs, rather than commercial segment, we were providing more short-dated working capital hard currency lending to corporate sectors, and their motivation was simply related to this overall interest rate differential between Turkish Lira and hard currency lending. For 2024, this is also the question of Sadrettin Bey, just to reiterate. On the lending side for Turkish Lira lending, we are expecting high teens Turkish Lira lending. Indeed, compared to what private peers guided so far, that number seems to be a little bit conservative and lower.

At this stage, maybe in terms of normalization, in terms of a much more competitive environment, seeing a relatively big competition from private peers and losing some ground in some key areas may be much more healthy for the composition and competition of Turkish banking sector. Of course, in some areas, selectively and in line with our strategic plan, in some areas we will be very competitive, like supporting export-oriented companies, like supporting manufacturing companies, like supporting some other key segments. Net-net, given our appetite will be in some commercial lending side in some key areas. On the retail side, because of the overall interest rate levels, especially on the residential mortgage side, we understand there will be additional shrinkage in our total portfolio.

My point is, on the Turkish Lira lending side, our entire full year lending will be mainly driven by commercial lending growth. Within the commercial segments, we will be supporting selectively some key segments rather than supporting every sub-segment. In this sense, we will be much more selective. Seeing also some good competition from private peers, we understand we may lose some market share in some key areas. As you know, at the end of the day, VakıfBank is the second biggest bank of Turkey in terms of total assets and in terms of market share in total lending. We believe still we will be keeping this position. In some sub-segments on the Turkish Lira side, especially on some retail segments, we may continue to lose some ground.

We believe this is also needed for the sake of Turkish banking sector. Rather than seeing much more lending supply from state banks only, maybe seeing much more competition from private peers, it may be also good for the entire Turkish banking sector. On the FX lending side, we are envisaging another single-digit growth for entire 2024. I believe in this sense, 2024 will be different compared to previous years. Because as you also know very well, up until this year, we were always seeing shrinkage in dollar terms for this entire Turkish banking sector on the FX lending side. This time, because of this interest rate differential between Turkish lira lending and hard currency lending, we understand entire banking sector have similar lending level growth in the FX lending side.

Therefore, I think our numbers will be in line with the sector average on the FX lending side. On the Turkish Lira lending side, especially in some areas like retail, like mortgage, we may lose some ground. On the swap-adjusted interest margin, I mean, at the end of today, we are coming from relatively low base compared to private peers. Most of them are guiding flat or slightly contraction for full year net interest margin in 2024 compared to 2023. They are coming relatively with high base compared to our base. In this sense, we understand that in terms of net interest margin performance, there will be some convergence between VakıfBank and other private peers. Our net interest margin will be relatively improving. Their net interest margin will be flattish or slightly down.

Net interest margin differential compared to private peers will be much more limited in the year of 2024 compared to 2023. In terms of core spread evolution, we are also at the same page. We believe, rather than the first half, real recovery in the Turkish Lira core spread business will be much more visible in the second half of the year. Thanks to such improvement, we expect our net interest margin to improve by a number between 50-100 basis points on top of 2.3% swap-adjusted net interest margin within 2023. I believe those are the questions we are trying to answer about it, but let us know if we are missing any other point.

Cihan Ersoy
Investor Relations Spokesperson, Türkiye Vakıflar Bankası Türk Anonim Ortaklığı

We have another question from Mehmet Sevim. He is connecting right now.

Mehmet Sevim
VP of CEEMEA Financials Equity Research, JPMorgan

Hi, Ali Bey. Thanks very much for the presentation. I have one question on a comment you made on the big ticket construction sector file that's gone to Stage II this quarter, if I heard it correctly. I believe this is the same file at your other private peers which actually classified it as Stage III this quarter. Obviously, there's this big jump in your Stage II ratio, and if I were to take that and put it into Stage III, then I see your NPL ratio would almost double. Can I please ask why this difference compared to private peers, and what would be the additional coverage needs for that specific file if it was to go to Stage III next quarter? Any other color you may have on that would be helpful. Thank you.

Ali Tahan
Head of International Banking and Investor Relations, Türkiye Vakıflar Bankası Türk Anonim Ortaklığı

Thank you, Mehmet Bey. Actually, you are right. This is the same company you are also seeing in private peers. It is, a, under normal conditions, a very sophisticated Turkish construction company who have operations in many international jurisdictions. But because of a specific reason, their cash flow and their business model seems to be relatively in challenging conditions. So in this sense, yes, this is the same company. But the thing is, this is not the first time many different banks for the same company have a different approach in terms of classifications. In the past, there were also other companies where VakıfBank put at NPL, but other, some private banks, for a while at least, categorized at Stage II.

There were also other companies where many different Turkish banks have different approach and understanding in terms of classification. The thing is, for this specific company, as of today, even though we are still putting them at Stage II, we already put 50% provisioning coverage for the entire exposure. My point is, in case it will be classified as NPL, its overall P&L impact will not be too much meaningful, and it is already incorporated for 150 basis points net cost of risk assumption of 2024. For the year of 2023, even though we haven't yet classified them as NPL, and still as of today we are following them at Stage II because it is restructured.

The good thing is, as of today, out of the total exposure, we already set aside 50% total provisioning for this specific company. In case it will become NPL, we only need additional 30% additional provisioning increase. This additional 30% provisioning increase already reflected within our 150 basis points net cost of risk expectation for the full year.

Mehmet Sevim
VP of CEEMEA Financials Equity Research, JPMorgan

Okay. That's very helpful. Thank you, Ali Bey. If I may also follow up on the guidance lines. You mentioned you expect higher than inflation fee growth, while at the same time about 50% cost growth. Could you tell us what the inflation assumption is that is underlying this guidance at least for the costs, and whether at the end of the day, your fee growth will be, or how much, by what margin would you expect fees to grow, compared to the cost growth this year?

Ali Tahan
Head of International Banking and Investor Relations, Türkiye Vakıflar Bankası Türk Anonim Ortaklığı

Thank you, Mehmet Bey. Actually, this is also related to the last question of Sadrettin Bey in written format, in terms of the macro assumptions and macro expectations. During our budget process, we take into consideration the numbers used by the economy administration within the medium-term program. In this respect, for the inflation side, we are taking into consideration 40% area. For the fee income side, you may expect a slight number above than 40%. For the OpEx side, it will be hovering around 50% mainly. Those are the numbers we will be using in our budget process.

Mehmet Sevim
VP of CEEMEA Financials Equity Research, JPMorgan

Okay. That's very clear. Thanks very much, Ali Bey.

Ali Tahan
Head of International Banking and Investor Relations, Türkiye Vakıflar Bankası Türk Anonim Ortaklığı

Thank you, Mehmet Bey.

Cihan Ersoy
Investor Relations Spokesperson, Türkiye Vakıflar Bankası Türk Anonim Ortaklığı

Another question from Valentina Stoykova from Barclays.

Valentina Stoykova
EEMEA Banks Credit Analyst, Barclays Corporate & Investment Bank

Hi. Thanks a lot for the presentation. My question is on your issuance plans for this year. How do you assess the current market conditions, and do you budget any Tier 2 issuance this year? My second question is on your CET1 ratio. It was around 10%, seems lower compared to peers. Do you see this ratio improving from here? What are your targets for this year, and how do you plan to achieve it?

Ali Tahan
Head of International Banking and Investor Relations, Türkiye Vakıflar Bankası Türk Anonim Ortaklığı

Thank you, Valentina. In terms of the issuance plan, we have one redemption on the Eurobond side as of first quarter and with the amount of $600 million. It was senior Eurobond issuance, and it will redeem as of March end. For this year, we have one public Eurobond issuance in our budget. But timing-wise, as you know, working for many years, we will be ready from documentation point, and we will be looking for the best possible window, either targeting second quarter after the local elections and/or second half. We will not, in, hurry, and we will be looking for the best possible right window from issuer point of view. In terms of the format of this potential Eurobond issuance, we are flexible.

I mean, it will be decided during the execution. As you know, our program and documentation allow us to issue both senior unsecured as well as Tier 2 and AT1. It will be decided by looking at the pricing and pricing differential between senior, sub and AT1. It will be decided during the time of execution, let's say. In our budget for this year, we have only one public Eurobond issuance, benchmark size. When we are referring to benchmark size, we are mainly referring to a number between $500 million-$750 million. Opportunistically, we will continue to monitor. Indeed, DCM market seems to be very open for all potential Turkish issuers so far.

We see a lot of very successful deals out of Turkish FI space. Hopefully, with the very supportive market backdrop and supportive macro conditions, we expect this trend will continue and there will be good opportunities for other followers. In terms of the CET1 ratio, you are right, especially compared to private peers. Our CET1 ratio relatively low, but above than our risk appetite. Unlike the previous years, we don't expect any CET1 injection from the shareholder, from Sovereign Wealth Fund or from the state. Therefore, efficiency increase and profitability increase seems to be the easy way to run our CET1 ratio effectively.

This is also why, another reason why our Turkish lending growth seems to be relatively lower compared to private peers, because we need to be much more sensitive in terms of RWA growth versus profitability and efficiency. In our base case scenario, by the end of 2024, we don't expect a lower CET1 ratio without forbearance measures. We expect there may be slight increase under normal conditions. At the same time, given there will be no potential CET1 injection from the state, we are also considering other capital solutions apart from the profitability to strengthen our CET1 base. Cihan Bey, do we have any questions?

Cihan Ersoy
Investor Relations Spokesperson, Türkiye Vakıflar Bankası Türk Anonim Ortaklığı

Cihan Bey wants to connect again.

Cihan Saraoğlu
Equity Analyst, HSBC

Hello. I just have a follow-up question on your last remark. I mean, that you may consider other options to increase CET1 ratio. Do those options include a potential recapitalization through rights issues?

Ali Tahan
Head of International Banking and Investor Relations, Türkiye Vakıflar Bankası Türk Anonim Ortaklığı

Thank you, Cihan. Actually, no. In the short run, at least, or at the senior management levels, there is no such discussion related to rights issue or other, capital injections. As you know, to improve the CET1 base, there are also other options to optimize the denominator rather than numerator. These are open to discussions, and these are the ongoing projects which didn't materialize yet. If needed to strengthen our CET1 base rather than rights issue, rather than CET1 injection, we may also consider potential RWA optimization related CET1 projects.

Cihan Ersoy
Investor Relations Spokesperson, Türkiye Vakıflar Bankası Türk Anonim Ortaklığı

Okay. It seems like that was the end of the audio questions. We can go to written questions right away.

Ali Tahan
Head of International Banking and Investor Relations, Türkiye Vakıflar Bankası Türk Anonim Ortaklığı

Thank you, Cihan Bey. Actually, on the written side, I think when we are discussing with the Q&A sessions, I think we already answered automatically all the questions related to Sadrettin Bey's written questions. At this stage, there is no any other unanswered questions. If you don't mind, we would like to thank everybody for their interest and time and for their patience. Together with Nihan and other investor relations colleagues, we are at your disposal if you have any other follow-up questions, and looking forward to seeing everybody in person in the first possible occasion. With this occasion, we wish you a good evening.

Cihan Ersoy
Investor Relations Spokesperson, Türkiye Vakıflar Bankası Türk Anonim Ortaklığı

Thank you, Mr. Tahan. Ladies and gentlemen, as you heard, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation.

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