Yapi ve Kredi Bankasi A.S. (IST:YKBNK)
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Apr 29, 2026, 6:09 PM GMT+3
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Earnings Call: H2 2022

Feb 2, 2023

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I'm Poppy, your conference call operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Yapı Kredi conference call and live webcast to present and discuss the Yapı Kredi 2022 results and 2023 guidance. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Gökhan Erün, CEO, Mr. Kürşad Keteci, CSO, and Ms. Hilal Varol, Head of Investors Relations and Strategic Analysis. Mr. Erün, you may now proceed.

Gökhan Erün
CEO, Yapı ve Kredi Bankası

Thank you. Good afternoon, and thank you all for joining our 2022 earnings and 2023 guidance call. Let me first comment on the operating environment. Despite all the challenges, we expect to end the year with a GDP growth of 5%. Budget deficit under control, only 1% to GDP. Current account deficit is expected to be around $50 billion. During the second half of the year, we have experienced a slowdown in the economy. TL-driven economy strategy is continuing. Central bank is mainly using Macroprudential measures to sustain the tightening and execution of this strategy. Global macro environment has more visibility in terms of interest rates and inflation. Therefore, we are observing a better risk appetite against emerging markets. Meanwhile, geopolitical conflicts are continuing.

Current TL interest rate imbalance between funding and lending is putting pressure, whereas positive global macro may support some normalization efforts needed for Turkish economy. I'm moving to page two of our presentation. We posted TRY 52.7 billion net profit last year. Third year in a row, we kept our leadership in terms of ROE versus peers. Our ROE is at 57% and ROA is at 5.4%. I'd like also to add our inflation accounting adjusted ROE is around 15%. Regarding our net profit, let me emphasize that there is strong overcautious provisioning during the fourth quarter, last quarter. Our quarterly cost of risk was at 287 basis points. Pre-provision profit, PPP, stood at TRY 78 billion, and PPP to gross loans improved to 14.1%. Some important drivers of the strong performance are as follows.

Year-over-year improvement in total NIM reached to 593 basis points. Our NIM stands at 9.1%. Most importantly, we have achieved 74 basis point increase quarterly despite the challenges, thanks to our ALM capabilities we mentioned also last quarter. TL loan-to-deposit spread widened 205 basis points annually, thanks to exceptional cost of funding management. I'd like to mention also we are close to achieve regulatory 60% thresholds in terms of TL deposits. Also, by tomorrow, which will be ending this week or the ending tomorrow, we expect to reach 60% thresholds. During the year, we keep focusing on increasing the TL funding through small tickets, as well as gaining market shares in targeted segments.

With our new customer acquisition muscle, we gained market share on consumer loans, TL individual demand deposit, TL deposit, and also deleveraged our foreign currency loans. Moving to next page. We are well equipped to navigate through any uncertainty with very strong fundamentals. In terms of liquidity levels, our foreign currency LCR at FC LCR is around 600. Total LCR, 175 as we speak now. Additional LDR is at the moment 85, even slightly lower. Equally important, TL LDR is also 104. Effects to good is around 3 x of our foreign currency dues in the coming 12 months. On capital front, our Tier 1 capital further improved to 16%, 16.2%, thanks to consistently growing the strong internal capital generation.

Now we have buffer more than 660 basis points versus regulatory limits for Tier 1. In terms of asset quality, we have continued our conservative provisioning despite limited NPL inflows throughout the year. Our NPL coverage is at 172%. The result of our total loan coverage realized at 5.9%, and it is the highest level among peers announced so far. Now I'm leaving the floor to Hilal. She will give details behind our strong numbers.

Hilal Varol
Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis, Yapı ve Kredi Bankası

Thank you very much, Gökhan Erün. Good afternoon, and thank you all for joining our call this afternoon. I will start with page four. As you have quoted, our strength and profitable to sustained with solidified balance sheet. Again, this quarter, we have compared our performance and fundamentals versus two of our peers that have already announced their results. As of 2022, we have the lowest Turkish loan-to-deposit ratio, and this is further improved, standing at 104%. With our further cautious approach in 4Q, as Gökhan Erün mentioned, on provisions, our loan loss coverage ratio increased to 5.9%, and this is the highest level among peers. Our Tier 1 ratio is at 16.2%.

The buffer is 606 basis points, and this is the second-highest level among peers and very, very healthy. All together, for the five consecutive periods, we have the highest return on tangible equity at 57% as of year-end 2022. Our net interest margin reached to 9.1%, thanks to our ongoing achievements in our strategies, such as small ticket focus, best-in-class and agile asset and liability management. This is also the highest level among our peers. Also showing our strength in fee generation, as you have quoted, we have the best-in-class and the highest fee coverage of OpEx at 67%. Now I am moving to page five, looking at our market share gains, mainly in small ticket lucrative products, which is empowering our profitability. You know, this is our main strategy and showing our achievements.

In consumer loans, since 2020, we gained 210 basis points market share among private banks. We reached to 18.2%. General purpose loans with another 155 basis points gain. Now our market share is at 18%. Car loans with 11 percentage point market share and with 36% market share. On the funding side, Turkish Lira customer deposits market share went up by 174 bps, and now it's at 16.2%. As a part of our strategy and ensuring the sustainability of this performance, the main driver is individuals. Turkish Lira individual demand deposits market share went up by a significant 3.4 percentage points.

On the FX loans, you know that we are telling the story. We are intentionally de-leveraging, and this trend continues in the fourth quarter as well. This is beyond private banks, and our market share came down three percentage points versus 2020. We are at 13.6%. Going forward with our ongoing strength in customer acquisition, we will continue to grab market share in selective lucrative products. Looking at the lending performance, now I'm on page six. Our Turkish Lira loans increased 84% in 2022, and this is above our guidance of around 65% increase. As I mentioned, foreign currency loans, the de-leveraging continues in the quarter, coming down 7% quarterly and 24% year-over-year, which is in line with our guidance.

Our bank-only foreign currency loan now stands at a limited $8.8 billion. Looking at the drivers of the strong Turkish Lira loan growth, consumer loans went up by 58% through 64% increase in general purpose loans. Auto loans went up 4 x. Commercial installment loans went up 69% year-over-year. All in all, with this performance, retail loans share in total, this includes SMEs, reached to 59% as of 2022. On the funding side, we are on page seven, o ur strong customer franchise further strengthens and will continue to support the core funding source deposit. Showing another 28% significant quarterly increase, Turkish Lira deposits went up 2.7 x in the year, when demand deposits up by 2.4 x. With ongoing deposit realization or effort, foreign currency deposits came down 19% year-over-year.

Share of demand deposits improved two percentage points. This is in a single quarter and now stands at 41%. On the Turkish Lira side, we demand deposit side, we continue to increase the share two percentage points improvement quarterly again at 25%. Foreign currency share in demand reached to 60%. This is a seven percentage points increase in a single quarter. This performance is definitely better than the private bank's performance, we gained 124 basis points market share in demand deposits, we now stood at 15.6%. Turkish commercial deposit increase was also very strong, more than double versus last year. Despite this outstanding performance also in company deposits, the share of sticky retail deposits went up by two percentage points year-over-year, now we are at 68% of total.

I also want to reiterate that, also Gökhan mentioned, but I also want to emphasize it again. Turkish deposit share in total on both individual and companies, we are very, very close to 60%. In 2022, we have gained a significant number of net new customers, around 3 million, and our strong deposit performance also shows the trust of our customers in Yapı Kredi. Now I'm on page eight, our revenues. Our revenues reached TRY 101 billion. Revenues to interest earning assets doubled at 11.4%. The strong performance was driven by core revenues and definitely time actions taken by our treasury department and the trading line is also very supportive.

In the quarter, normalized for the linker income, our net interest margin widened 74 basis points, bringing our annual net interest margin to 9.1%. This is an impressive 593 basis points widening. We had 180 basis points support from core net, 444 basis points support from securities. Please note that the negative impact arising from the regulatory changes stood at 55 basis points. Equally important, our Turkish Lira time deposit cost improved 56 basis points. This is with ongoing deposit growth and despite the intensified competition. Our Turkish Lira loan deposit spread came down a limited 67 basis points quarterly. This performance is significantly better versus peers. Actually 100 bps, but better on average. Looking at the fees, our stellar fee performance.

Net fees increased 96% year-over-year with a 21% quarterly increase, which is above our guidance. Money transfer fees more than doubled. Fee income through investment products more than doubled. Bank insurance went up 46%. Payment system fees also more than doubled. Lending related fees also supported with an 81% year-over-year increase. It's all across the board. We are investing on digital solutions with the intention of providing and sustaining the best-in-class full service model. Definitely, the new customer acquisition is also very supportive for our fee performance. Moving to OpEx, I'm on page 10. Our cost increased to that 170% in the year. However, please note that we have front-loaded some expenses in 4Q, and the impact on the growth is around two percentage points.

As we have mentioned at the beginning of the year, with the very strong revenue generation, alongside with our daily running bank business, we are heavily investing for the future, our customers and our people. Business growth and human capital. Our HR costs increased and above inflation level at 111%, and our business growth related cost increase was at 210%. Looking at the running costs, they're under control, 8% increase. Looking at this performance, our debt ratio stood at 150% as of 2022. Looking at the asset quality, quarterly NPL inflows were at TRY 3.2 billion, and this is mainly driven by a couple of commercial files that we had already provisioned previously. Collections, on the other hand, improved further at TRY 1.2 billion.

Please note that all these inflows and collections exclude NPL sales on write-off. Our NPL ratio stood at 3.4% as of year-end. We further increased the NPL coverage ratio to 76%. Stage 2 loans came down and at 13% of our total loans with more than 19% coverage. While Stage 1 coverage, it was very strong, but we also increased it further in the quarter at 0.9%, and this shows our conservative approach in the quarter. All incorporated total loan coverage ratio stood at 5.9%, and once again, this is the highest level among peers. On consumer credit cards, quarterly additions were at similar levels through the year. SME net inflows continued to be negligible. Net inflows on corporate and commercial loans were still limited.

Once again, these classifications were through already provisioned files. We continue our prudence in provisioning. As we have already mentioned, at some precautionary provisions in the last quarter. Our cost of risk excluding the currency impact reached to 147 basis points as of 2022. 4Q is 287. I think this shows the very high level. Our full year cost of risk is in line with our guidance. Support from collections in the year was at 55 basis points. Note that it's just I always try to mention the currency impact is at 87 basis points and it's fully hedged. Moving to solvency or we are on page 12. In our capital ratios already improved, further improved in the quarter.

The lowest threshold buffer is at capital ratio at 615 basis points. Looking at CET1, we are at 14.7, 668 with buffer. Tier 1, 16.2%, again, 668 basis points buffer. Our capital ratio is at 18.1%. Capital generation to net profits this year again, very strong and is further improved at 673 basis points. Please note that all the figures are mentioned excluding the regulatory forbearance impact. Moving to the next page. We are on page 13. I'm very excited about this topic actually, our new program, STEP. Before going into the details, I would also like to mention our latest important achievement.

As a result of our intensive efforts, we have now become carbon neutral for Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions. This is an important success, but we will continue to work to meet our target for Scope 3. We know that our responsibility on sustainability is not only limited to our banking operations. We are aware of the impact that we can create together with our stakeholders. Accordingly, the new program STEP, Sustainable Preference Program, allows us to create awareness and transform our customers' behavior towards sustainability. For every sustainable life step, we are appointing step points through our app, and our customers can donate these points to non-governmental organizations.

Meaning we are creating a sustainable at least at the moment we launched this, and we are trying to create a sustainable disciple contributing to environment, climate, and education. Back to numbers. On page 14, this is a summary of 2022 realization. I tried to go through every one of them during the presentation, but in summary, our return on tangible equity of 57% and inflation accounting return of tangible equity around 15% was above our guidance. I'm leaving the floor to Gökhan Erün for our 2023 guidance and closing remarks, we will be taking your questions afterwards.

Gökhan Erün
CEO, Yapı ve Kredi Bankası

Thank you, Hilal. This year is an election year, therefore we run a couple of scenarios. Our guidance is summarizing an average of these scenarios. In case of significant macro changes, then we may need, of course, to revise our guidance as well. Our 2023 guidance for consolidated financials are: in terms of volumes, TL lending will be lower than 40%. We foresee further contraction in FX lending. In terms of core revenues, we expect NIM to be above 5%, thanks to our enhanced ALM management. Contraction is due to currency imbalance in Turkish Lira rates, unfortunately, as well as also lower contribution from CPI linkers. We had a very strong increase in fees last year.

Diversification efforts, increase in number of transactions, and definitely our leadership in payment systems supported this performance. This year, also we target to have above 60% growth in terms of fees with ongoing execution of our strategy. So in terms of cost, we'd like to keep investing on customer acquisition activities, as well as keep improving our employees' living standards, conditions. We will continue to keep the running costs under control and sustain cost saving in this area. As a result of this, we expect to have lower than 100% growth in total costs. On asset quality side, as mentioned before, we foresee the cost of risk also to be around 100%, because we have quite a buffer there from previous years. Overall, these performances will result to keep ROE at high 20s.

More importantly, inflation accounting adjusted ROE is targeted to be mid to low teen levels. I'd like to take this occasion to extend my thanks to our stakeholders who stand by with us, and our dedicated employees who contributed to the achievements of our bank. It has been a century since Turkish Republic is born. In this memorable year, our bank and our employees will keep committed to our beloved country. On behalf of the whole team, I'd like to thank you all for joining our call. Now we can take your questions.

Operator

The first question comes from the line of Konstantin Rozantsev with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Konstantin Rozantsev
Managing Director, JPMorgan

Yes, thanks a lot for the presentation and for taking my questions. I had three questions that I wanted to ask. The first one is about the loan quality. How sensitive do you see the loan quality to higher rates, assuming rates get hiked at some point and to probably some protracted period of slow growth in the economy? Have you run any, you know, stress tests, and what do these suggest with respect to, you know, under what conditions do you see a significant market pressure on the loan quality for the bank? The second question is about the FX-protected deposit scheme.

Is there a risk in your mind that we may start seeing some increased outflows from that scheme in the near- term, or in your view, that's not a risk, that's not, you know, something to be worried about? The last question is about the perpetual bonds in dollars that you have. It has a call option in January 2024. What should be our expectation about the possibility of call of that bond? Thanks a lot. Thank you.

Gökhan Erün
CEO, Yapı ve Kredi Bankası

Thank you, Constantin. First question. Stress test, of course we run it daily because it's a part of the risk management. Yes, there is a possibility that we might see higher rates. This is more on the on the central bank side for the second half of the year. If you are talking about interest rates, at the moment we are seeing already higher interest rates for the cost of funding side, especially for the deposit, TL deposit side. Just to give you an idea of the market. New inflows, these are not the FX protected ones, but the ones that are claiming a TL deposit.

On the market, we are hearing 25% even, marginally, we are hearing some banks paying 30%, 31% to be able to reach this 60% threshold, which is not the case, at least for our side. 25% is at the moment easily achievable. We are seeing it already. The impact is already started to be seen on our balance sheet. B ecause of the liquidity or for all the capital issues, we do not see any threat, even stress-wise. Second question is the FX-protected deposit.

We do not see any outflow, at least, from our side, from the application side, an outflow, from the FX-protected deposits. As the central bank lifted, also the thresholds, the cap on the FX-protected side, the TL portion, TL interest rate, of it. We do not see an outflow. On the contrary, it is helping us , as Hilal mentioned earlier, to be able to reach a 60% threshold in a TL conversion site. This FX-protected deposit is very much part of it. Third question was about the AT1, the perpetual ones. Of course, we have some time, we have a year to go in front of us. The basic idea is whenever we are able to, we'd like to call it. Because the coupon that we have, that is bearing quite a burden for us. It is our first priority would be definitely to call it back. We have still a year in front of us.

Konstantin Rozantsev
Managing Director, JPMorgan

Yeah. Understood. Thanks a lot for these details. That's extremely useful. Just, if I could please ask for some additional color on the first question on the loan quality. Under what conditions, there is an expectation that there should be some austerity period after the elections, after the policies revert to orthodoxy at some point sooner or later. Under what conditions, do you expect to see like a more, you know, prominent NPL problem for the bank. Where would rates need to go? For how long do they need to stay at those levels? For how long does the economy kind of need to be in a period of like low next to zero protracted?

Gökhan Erün
CEO, Yapı ve Kredi Bankası

Actually two. Yeah, I got it. You have basically two questions. First is linked to macro, and then, second is specifically linked to the numbers maybe. The first, about macro, of course, this is one of the scenarios that there might be a rate hike further on. This might be part of normalization efforts that we are in a transition phase. It might be the case, one of the scenarios that there might be a normalization. Normalization might lead to normalization of the interest rates in general, not only for the deposit side. Because for the deposit side, it is there already. There is no cap, so it is free.

There, as I told you, it goes up to 30%. It seems that this 30% deposit, that is the maximum average, let's say, new flows, 20%+ , 25%. This is holding, I think, the Turkish Lira against dollar. One should not expect to have to see higher interest rates more than this. I think those levels are holding on. Just to bear in mind that also the inflation is going down, and by the end of the year, we might be seeing, you know, something between 30%, 40%. If it is also 40%, this kind of environment, with the, with those interest rates, it can hold the depreciation, devaluation of Turkish Lira. This is my personal opinion. Second part maybe, Kürşad Keteci.

Kürşad Keteci
CSO, Yapı ve Kredi Bankası

Sure, Gürsan. Regarding this NPL evolution, asset quality deterioration, Konstantin, currently we are not seeing a deterioration in terms of asset quality. First, we should consider that big ticket lending is not the situation in the lending environment. Therefore, we don't need to expect a big ticket credit risk in coming future, because the market is mainly going on retail lending. In terms of retail lending, there is a huge liquidity. Before the election, considering the budget deficit of the government, there is still room to put additional liquidity in the market. Also as the minimum wages increases, therefore the possible asset quality deterioration doesn't seem to be in this year. Even it comes in next years, since it's a widespread risk, it is easily manageable for all the banking system.

Konstantin Rozantsev
Managing Director, JPMorgan

Understood. Thank you very much. Thank you. That's extremely useful. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Alan Webborn with Société Générale. Please go ahead.

Alan Webborn
Senior Analyst, Société Générale

Oh, hi. thanks for the call. could I ask you about your cost growth target for 2023? you say that you've sort of pre-funded, you know, part of 2023's costs in Q4. there's a slide talking about, I think, sort of 12% of the rise in 2022 is related to 2023 costs. yet you're giving us guidance of, you know, somewhat below 100% when inflation clearly may start the year a bit below that or a fair amount below that and is going down. can you sort of put a little bit more flesh on why you've given that sort of less than 100%? Is it just such a wide, you know, figure that you'll do a lot better than that?

Or are there, you know, known costs in terms of your, you know, investment and so on that you feel that you need to do, which is gonna keep cost growth high? Just seems, given what you said about what you did in, at year-end, that that's a relatively, a relatively high amount. A little bit more color on that would be helpful. I just wondered what your CPI linker assumption was in the NIM forecast for 2023. Thank you.

Kürşad Keteci
CSO, Yapı ve Kredi Bankası

Alan, this is Kürşad speaking. For cost growth target, we guided below 100%. First of all, there is a pass-through impact coming from high inflationary environment in last year, which is impacting 2023. Therefore, I believe comparing the growth with the current inflation will not be an ideal comparison. There is a pass-through impact. Some of the pass-through impacts we have provisions in last year, as well as you know, there is an early retirement kind of additional HR things going to come. That kind of things we provisioned. All in all, for the last four, five years, we have been guiding the market. In terms of costs, we will always keep growing regarding the business growth.

Business growth, we mean, customer acquisition, investments, technology investment, as well as additional further digitalization. We will keep growing, even higher than what we guided. Where we are applying efficiency is on our running costs. These are the main cost saving areas. As Hilal mentioned at the, during the presentation, HR cost is also our priority, which has never been a cost saving area for our strategy.

Alan Webborn
Senior Analyst, Société Générale

Okay. What were the pre-funded costs in Q4?

Kürşad Keteci
CSO, Yapı ve Kredi Bankası

Pre-funded costs, as I said, some provisioning for possible costs regarding the investments, IT investments, and as well as this early retirement additional cost that may happen in 2023.

Alan Webborn
Senior Analyst, Société Générale

Sorry . Okay, go on.

Kürşad Keteci
CSO, Yapı ve Kredi Bankası

For your second question, CPI linker assumption, we prefer to start the year on a quarterly basis for CPI assumption, linker assumption. In the first quarter, it's gonna be somewhere around 40% levels, CPI linker's valuation.

Alan Webborn
Senior Analyst, Société Générale

Okay. All right. Okay, thank you.

Kürşad Keteci
CSO, Yapı ve Kredi Bankası

Thank you.

Operator

At this time, there are no further audio questions. We will proceed with the written webcast questions. Management.

Hilal Varol
Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis, Yapı ve Kredi Bankası

We have lots of questions, but I will try to merge them. Well done on managing core NIM. Can you please elaborate on measures applied and how core NIM will evolve in first half?

Kürşad Keteci
CSO, Yapı ve Kredi Bankası

I think Thomas, we answered the core NIM evolution in the first half. Regarding to our NIM management, it's mainly coming from our better asset liability management principle. While we are having some issues on lending rates, we were focusing more on the funding deposit part. We increased demand deposit composition in total. As you remember, in the third quarter, we front-loaded TL deposit growth in order not to be in the competition in the fourth quarter. All in all, I would say asset liability management capabilities are the main reason behind.

Hilal Varol
Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis, Yapı ve Kredi Bankası

From [Punash]. What is the current cost of FX protected Turkish Lira accounts with the interest cap has now lifted?

Kürşad Keteci
CSO, Yapı ve Kredi Bankası

Current FX protected Turkish Lira accounts, let us give you the marginal total average TL deposit rate. It is in the market, you see 20%-24% levels on average, and we are somewhere around at these levels.

Hilal Varol
Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis, Yapı ve Kredi Bankası

May be a summary on our macro guidance for 2023.

Kürşad Keteci
CSO, Yapı ve Kredi Bankası

Thomas, again, for this macro, we have a GDP assumption of 3.5% for the full year and inflation, again, 40% levels.

Hilal Varol
Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis, Yapı ve Kredi Bankası

One question from Erin Hanım. Good evening to everyone. Thank you for your presentation. We have seen many regulatory changes and new roles recently. I'm curious if there will be any regulatory changes coming.

Gökhan Erün
CEO, Yapı ve Kredi Bankası

It's a good question. We do not know. There has been many changes. On the other side, we are also expecting for the time that the normalization period starts. At the moment we are hearing that at least the appetite is that the there is an intention to normalize all these regulations, but I think it will take some time. At the moment, I cannot say more, unfortunately.

Hilal Varol
Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis, Yapı ve Kredi Bankası

We have a question on dividend payouts.

Gökhan Erün
CEO, Yapı ve Kredi Bankası

For the dividend side, I think, looking at the banking sector, you know, compared to previous years, the sector in general is much stronger. We are much more well capitalized and high liquidity. In that sense, it is fair to ask percentage- wise higher dividends compared to previous years. In the previous years, it was, you know, in the last two years it was 10% of the profit. As the management, we are asking to pay above the levels that we paid in the past. Of course it is up to the regulators to decide on that.

Hilal Varol
Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis, Yapı ve Kredi Bankası

What are your Eurobond issuance plans for the year?

Gökhan Erün
CEO, Yapı ve Kredi Bankası

For the funding side will be opportunistic, as I mentioned earlier. We have 3 x the liquidity, foreign currency liquidity for the coming 12 months redemptions. In that sense, you know, borrowing at those rates, at today's rates, does not make any sense for us because as the foreign currency loans also deleveraging, and also it is still deleveraging this year. There is no margin for us. Borrowing at those costs, we have seen several state banks borrowing not five, but three years. Three years is not something that we'd like to go. At least maturity should be five years plus. The cost should be much less.

Looking at the very constructive environment also, seeing yesterday, last night, Mr. Powell, Jerome Powell, on TV. This is very constructive for in general for the emerging markets. Today we have seen at least the CDS levels going down also. If this continues, not Turkey specific, but for the emerging markets, but also for Turkey, then would be opportunistically definitely on the market to borrow.

Hilal Varol
Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis, Yapı ve Kredi Bankası

O ne question: what are the key downside or upside risks to your 2023 scenario?

Gökhan Erün
CEO, Yapı ve Kredi Bankası

For this year, I do not have a strong position for the CPI, because CPI linkers is an important aspect of the income. I cannot strongly say this will be 40% or 30% or what have you. That's why it might be a downside for the revenue side. Regulations still ongoing, which has an important impact and heavy burden on our balance sheet for this year specific, but also for the coming years as well. I'm telling the long-term Turkish Lira bonds with relatively lower interest rates that we have to buy according to the regulations.

Those are the burdens that will be impacting our balance sheet this year and in the coming years. Without the regulations and some part of the CPI, I do not see a downside risk on our portfolio. As Kursat mentioned earlier, in Turkish Lira lending side, we are lending on the GPL side, which is lucrative, making profit out of that with very much low NPL ratios. If we of course not to lose also the customer relation side, which is very much important. Not to lose that franchise value with the customers. If you lose it, to take it back is cost us will be much higher. That's why, you know, we are lending but very much shorter maturities, not, trying to lend more than three months, so with the cap that we have at the moment. Obviously, you know the deposit, Turkish Lira deposit rates. We are trying to keep it balanced and to see the normalization period starting.

Hilal Varol
Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis, Yapı ve Kredi Bankası

I think we have one question on the line.

Operator

Yes, we have a follow-up question from Konstantin Rozantsev with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Konstantin Rozantsev
Managing Director, JPMorgan

Yes, thanks a lot. Just a quick follow-up, if I may, on the deposit rates. Where do you see the Turkish Lira deposit rates trending from now in the coming, you know, weeks and months, on both the conventional side and on the FX Protected side? Do you see more convergence between the deposit rates on unconventional Lira deposit and on those within the FX Protected scheme between each other?

Gökhan Erün
CEO, Yapı ve Kredi Bankası

Something for the TL deposit, I think normally , if all the banks or the banks that are following the 60% threshold, I think once they reach it, then it's up to the central bank again if they will be asking from us 70% or higher numbers. If this is not the case, which is basically the normalization scenario that I'm mentioning, then the existing rates should be enough. Highly competitive, if you ask me, looking at the inflation, et c. We should not be seeing higher rates more than this. Again, the one remark is the regulation. That I do not know, definitely. Maybe a conversion from the FX-protected to Turkish Lira deposit.

It could be the case when we had if we had the cap for the FX-protected side with 12% Turkish interest rate. As it is also lifted, and the FX-protected gives you an option, a free option, that I think a conversion to Turkish Lira from this FX-protected, the Central Bank kind of deposit, conversion deposit, I do not see it. That might be the case for the conversion from the Treasury point of view, where we have the cap of 12%. T hat might go to a Turkish Lira deposit, which is, I think also, is required or at least wanted by the Treasury as well. They did not increase the cap rate on that deposits. Looking at the market numbers, obviously that part, that portion, this is the treasury backed FX-protected ones are decreasing obviously. The central bank sponsored ones are increasing.

Konstantin Rozantsev
Managing Director, JPMorgan

Understood. Thank you very much. Thank you.

Gökhan Erün
CEO, Yapı ve Kredi Bankası

Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference over to management for any closing comments. Thank you.

Hilal Varol
Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis, Yapı ve Kredi Bankası

I thank you all for joining our call tonight. If you have any further questions, please let us know. Also, there are lots of recent questions, but they are coinciding with each other. We will go through them. If necessary, we will be sending you written answers. Thank you.

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