Good morning, and good evening. First of all, thank you all for joining this conference call. Now we'll begin the conference on the fiscal year 2022 Q2 earnings results by Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance. This conference will start with a presentation, followed by a divisional Q&A session.
If you have a question, please press star one, that is star and one on your phone during the Q&A. For cancellation, please press star two, that is star and two on your phone. Now, we shall commence the presentation by Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance.
Good morning. I am Kim Jaehong, head of the IR team. Thank you for joining Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance's first half 2022 earnings conference call. We will begin with our CFO, Hong Seong-Woo's presentation on key earnings highlights and future business strategy, followed by Q&A, during which answers will be provided by the management team.
The whole session will last around one hour. Now, I invite our CFO, Hong Seong-Woo. Good morning, I am CFO, Hong Seong-Woo. Allow me to present on the first half 2022 earnings results. First half pre-tax profit reported KRW 1,028.6 billion, and net profit reported KRW 749.9 billion, which is up 0.8% year-on-year.
On the back of recovery in offline sales activities, we saw new business revenue grow around high CSM-yielding products, like the health insurance and illness insurance, driving health insurance revenue, excluding medical indemnities to recover above last year's level. Driven by efficient improvement efforts for value-enforced policies, 25th month persistency ratio for the protection type was up 12% points year-over-year, and 37th month persistency ratio also improved 5 % points.
Risk and loading premium also was up 8.5% year-over-year. On the back of stronger rules by the regulators on excessive medical indemnity claims and claims review, which had a stabilizing effect on the risk loss ratio, Q2 loss ratio improved by 4.9 % points year-over-year, and 3.6 % points Q-o-Q. While on a first half basis, there was 1.7 % point improvement year-over-year.
In the second half, despite concerns over slowing of offline sales activities on the back of new wave of COVID, we will continue to strengthen competitiveness of high margin products and regain activity levels of the sales organization so as to sustain our top line and bottom line growth. For the auto insurance on the back of rise in crude prices and lower accident rate on the back of COVID, combined ratio improved by two percentage points year-over-year, reporting 92.3%.
In the second half, there is greater possibility of P&L volatility from heavy rain and snow, and other natural disasters, as well as higher inflation leading to higher cost burden. Against this backdrop, we will fully prepare against such risks and secure revenue stream by growing high quality revenue so as to gain a steady base of profit. Next is the general insurance.
First half, direct premium written was up 10% year-on-year, and on the back of risk management efforts to ease P&L volatilities, loss ratio showed improvement of 3.2 % points, reporting 69.3%. In the second half, we will continue to strengthen competitiveness in terms of channel and product to sustain top line growth, and at the same time solidify a foundation for growth in our global businesses.
We are driving revenue growth from the North American market through a close business cooperation with Canopius of U.K. as we continue to explore ways to create synergies and define mid- to long-term business strategies. Next is asset management. The financial market is experiencing greater uncertainties on sustained increase in interest rates and FX rates, and growing concerns over stagflation.
Under this market backdrop, investment profit for the first half was KRW 1,048.4 billion, and investment yield was at 2.9%, which is down 0.3 % points year-over-year. Excluding the one-off dividend gains last year, there was investment yield improvement of 0.1 % points year-over-year. We, at SFMI, will expand exposures to dividend-bearing assets and higher yielding assets to secure profitability for the portfolio.
While to prepare against growing market volatilities, we tightened quality monitoring of assets under management as well as risk management. Also, by setting strategies for each economic forecast scenarios, we will preempt market changes. That ends the business highlights for the first half of the year. I will now run through an update on our digital business.
Following last year's launch of daily life platform brand Direct Chak, in April, we released personalized insurances reflecting mileage-driven and individuals' health conditions, and also launched the Chak series, including Chak Drive and Chak Walk. As we acquire new customers through Samsung's integrated financial platform, Monimo, we plan to maximize synergies by leveraging its connection to our own direct app.
Our healthcare management app, Anyfit, recently went through an upgrade from Anyfit Plus to Anyfit Pro, becoming a new digital healthcare service that provides health risk analysis as well as personalized healthcare management. During the first half, despite continuing uncertainties, both internal and external, SFMI was able to achieve results beyond what we've seen last year. We expect challenging environment of higher inflation and global economic slowdown to continue into the second half of the year.
We will continue to push ahead towards profit-driven growth and efficiency improvement so that we are equipped with solid profit base ahead of the adoption of IFRS 17. We will also endeavor to implement our growth strategies to further enhance the company's future value. We will do our utmost to bring performance unparalleled by others, and will also enhance our shareholder return. Thank you. We will now start with the Q&A. I would like to ask that you ask no more than two questions per person.
Now, Q&A session will begin. Please press star one, that is star and one, if you have any questions. Questions will be taken according to the order you have pressed the number star one. For cancellation, please press star two, that is star and two, on your phone. The first question will be provided by Hongje Lee from Hyundai Motor Securities. Please go ahead with your question.
Uh, uh,
Thank you for taking my question. I would like to ask you two questions which relate to the overall regulation and rules. In terms of the low loss ratio of the auto insurance, because the loss ratio has gone down, there is a lot of discussion and talk about a rate cut. I'm wondering whether you are engaged in any discussions with the financial authorities in lowering the auto insurance premium, and if such a premium cut does take place, how much of a cut would that be?
Second question relates to the medical indemnities-related regulation. In terms would you be increasing the premiums for these medical indemnities in light of the loss ratio that we've seen in the third-generation medical indemnity products?
Also, do you foresee any certain modifications or changes with respect to the rules that relate to the medical indemnities, for instance, an update of the business method standards? Yes, I will respond to your first question about auto insurance. I'm VP of Automobile Insurance Strategy, Kim Il-pyeong. To respond to your question, no, there is not any discussion that is ongoing with the regulatory authority with regards to the premium cut.
I do understand there are some press coverages with respect to the cut in rates, but I believe that right now is not the appropriate timing for us to provide you with any specific comment. One of the reason being is that the premium was cut back in April, and it only has just been about four months since that premium cut.
We have not yet been able to even assess the impact that it had and the progressive impact that it had on our overall numbers. Also, as we've mentioned before, as we enter into the second half, the P&L uncertainties and volatilities are going to further heighten and hence I do not think that it is an appropriate timing for us to provide you with any specific guidance on that.
두 번째 질문, 장기 두 개 질문을 주셨습니다. 장기보험 전략팀장 박근배 전무입니다. 첫 번째 질문은 three세대 요율 확보에 대한 질문을 하셨던 걸로 기억이 되고요. 두 번째는 문제 비급여의 향후 처리 방안, 표준 방법서의 여러 가지 반영 사항들에 대해서 여쭤본 것으로 제가 이해를 하고 있습니다. 첫 번째 답변을 드리겠습니다. three세대의 실손은 잘 아시다시피 2017년 four월 이후에 판매된 그런 실손입니다. 만 five년이 경과한 시점에서 더 이상 지금 요율 조정을 미룰 수가 없는 상황입니다.
아시다시피 업계는, 업계가 아니고 이제 당사는 사실은 올 six월 말, seven월을 목표로 요율 조정에 대한 부분들을 계획했습니다만, 지금 12월까지 밀려 있습니다. 요율 조정이 필요한 부분에 대해서는 감독 당국도 충분히 인지를 하고 있는 상태이기 때문에 과거와 달리 조기에 요율 인상에 대한 협의 과정을 시작해서 적정 요율을 조기 확보할 수 있도록 하겠습니다.
두 번째는 이제 현재 문제의 비급여 관련된 내용입니다.
I will respond to your question on the long-term insurance. I am Park Keun-bae. I understand that you have two questions. First, rate making for the third generation medical indemnity product. Second, any possible changes to the business method standard, especially with regards to how to process and treat the non-benefit items. Responding to your first question first.
The third generation medical indemnity products are the ones that were sold around the timing of April of 2017, and it's been about five years. We are now at a time where we cannot further delay or postpone the rate adjustments. For our company, we have originally set aside to June, end of June or July as our target to make that rate change, but at this point that has been delayed to December.
The financial authority is clearly aware of the need to bring changes to the overall premium rate, and at our company, we will do our best to make sure that we can advance and apply that rate changes in the near future.
두 번째 답변을 드리겠습니다. 현재 문제 비급여의 처리 방안 관련해 말씀을 주셨습니다. 현재 삼월 달에 있었던 백내장 관련된 여러 가지 문제 비급여는 보험사 개정 법률 기준에 근거하여 업무 처리 중입니다. 그렇지만 감독 당국에서 직접적으로 표준 방법 사업자나 감독 규정에 반영하는 부분들은 검토되고 있지 않습니다. 다만, 고객 안내 차원에서 사전 안내를 강화해야 된다는 부분에 대해서는 실무 차원에서 감독 당국과의 협의가 진행되고 있는 부분입니다. 이상입니다.
Responding to your second question of how we are pre-processing with some of the problematic non-benefit items. Based on the standards defined as of the March basis, we are currently handling all the cataract related claims based on the stringent review process.
At this point in time, the financial authority is not considering reflecting the specific item on its business method standards or codifying that in the regulation itself. However, we do see the need, and we've also been guided by the authorities that providing prior notification for information purposes to the customers will be required. That is an aspect that we are talking about at the working level together with the authorities.
질문에 답변이 되셨습니까?
아, 예, 감사합니다.
예, 감사합니다. 그럼 다음 질문 받겠습니다.
I hope that answered your question. We now move on to the next question.
다음으로 질문해 주실 분은 씨티 증권의 야세이 티엔 님입니다. The following question will be presented by Yasei Tien from Citigroup. Please go ahead with your question.
Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two questions. The first is that, around the impact from this, very, you know, terrible heavy rainfall that has been experienced in Seoul last couple of days. So just wondering if management is able to provide any initial assessment of the potential impact to the P&L from this very unfortunate, you know, heavy rainfall.
Secondly is that, just looking at the asset liability management slide, the duration for liabilities has been falling quite a bit over the last year. There is a bit of mismatch in the asset and liability at the moment. So just wondering, what's driving that decline and what would be the impact going forward in terms of asset and liability management? Thank you.
안녕하십니까? 질문 받아주셔서 감사합니다. 저도 두 가지 질문을 드릴 텐데요. 최근 며칠 동안 서울에 굉장히 안타까운 폭우 피해가 발생했습니다. 현재 상황에서 경영진께서는 이 초기 분석이 혹시 되어 있는지, 손익에 어떤 영향을 금번 폭우가 미칠 수 있을지에 대해서 초기 평가하신 내용이 있으면 설명 부탁드립니다. 두 번째는 자산 부채 매칭에 대한 질문입니다.
부채 duration이 지난 일 년 동안 계속 떨어졌는데요. 이로 인해서 자산과 부채 간의 미스매치가 발생을 하였는데, 이 부채 duration이 하락한 주요 원인이 무엇인지, 그리고 앞으로 ALM을 관리해 나가는 데 있어서 이것이 어떤 함의 내지는 영향을 미칠지요?
네, 첫 번째 질문에 답변드릴 자동차보험 전략팀장 김일평입니다.
Yes, I am Kim Il-pyeong, a VP of Automobile. I will respond to your first question. Regarding the impact from the heavy rainfall that we've experienced, as of 7 A.M. today, the vehicles that have been damaged amount to about 3,167 cars. On the automobile insurance, the expected loss that we will be impacted with is expected to be KRW 51.1 billion.
Once again, that is an estimated loss from the recent flooding or inundation and the submerging of these vehicles. We do take out a reinsurance, and we have an excess of loss treaty in place, which covers KRW 14.5 billion. The impact that this damage will give us as a company will amount to KRW 14.5 billion. Hello, I am Kim Jong Han.
I will provide you with some details on the commercial line with regards to the rainfall impact. On the general line, the amount that we have received as a claims report as of 4:00 P.M. yesterday amounts to less than KRW 1 billion. If it is a large workplace, for instance, it does take time for that site to assess the amount of damage.
There will be some time duration that would be required for us to get the exact amount of loss. We believe that the amount of loss that has been incurred for the general lines of products is not going to be that significant. Yes. I am VP of Actuarial RM team, Choi Boo Kyu. I will respond to your second question.
Because of the rise in the interest rate on a year-over-year basis, we've seen a significant decline in liability duration. With the increase in the interest rate, the liability duration fell. The reason is because the portion of policies that have the minimum guarantee interest rate, the mix actually, declined.
Meaning basically, if it's a policy with the guaranteed minimum interest rate, if it goes over a certain level, then basically you move from fixed interest rate to a floating interest rate, which has an impact of reducing the duration of the liability. Yes, you are right. The duration gap did widen, but because of improvement in the RBC rules, which took place in June 2021, there is no big change in our RBC ratio.
Under KICS, although the duration gap did widen, the overall exposure size did decline, so there is not that big of an impact on our side. As we are in a cycle where there is higher interest rate volatility, we are not going to just suddenly change our ALM management strategy or policies.
What we will do is we will set our target interest rate and manage our asset and liability matching very gradually within that limit that's been set. Thank you. Thanks so much. I think we will be finished. The following question will be presented by Jun Sup Chung from NH Investment & Securities. Please go ahead with your question.
안녕하십니까? NH투자증권 정준섭입니다. 질문 기회 주셔서 감사드립니다. 저는 짧게 한 가지만 질문을 드리고 싶은데요. 올해 one분기도 그렇고 two분기도 상당히 양호한 실적이 나오면서 올해 연간 이익도 물론 하반기는 봐야 되겠지만, 올해 연간 이익 수준은 작년보다는 그래도 좀 증가하는 모습이 예상이 되는 상황인데, 혹시 조금 이른 시점이지만 배당 쪽에 대해서 말씀을 주실 수 있는지요? 올해 연초에 DPS의 안정성을 추구하겠다라고 말씀을 주셨는데, 그래도 좀 이익이 증가하는 만큼 DPS 상향 여지는 있는지, 여기에 대해서 공유 좀 부탁드리겠습니다.
Thank you. I just have one very quick question. We see that your business results in Q2 following Q1 was quite positive. On a per year basis, we therefore expect a rise in profit compared to previous year. Can you provide any color on your dividend as stands? Because at the beginning of the year, you said that you will focus on DPS stability, but as the overall profit has actually increased, would there be any chance that you would be upping or increasing DPS?
경영지원실장 홍성우입니다.
Hello, this is the CFO, Hong Seong-Woo. I will respond to your question.
2021년 저희가 배당을 하면서 단순히 배당 성향이 아닌 안정적 추정 배당금으로 유지하는 방향을 선회했던 거는 그 당시 경영 환경의 불확실성, 그다음에 손익 변동 가능성 때문이라고 말씀드린 적이 있습니다.
Now, in 2021, we, when we explained to you as to why we were shifting focus from payout ratio to having a steady DPS was due to, you know, higher uncertainties and the overall operational backdrop and P&L volatilities.
1분기 실적 설명회 때도 말씀드린 것처럼 저희가 추정 배당금 DPS를 확대하기 위한 전략을 계속해서 회사가 추진할 거라고 말씀을 드렸고요.
As mentioned during the Q1's earnings release, in order for us to further expand the dividend per share or DPS, the company will focus on strategies that will enable that.
말씀하신 것처럼 이번 분기 실적이 예상했던 것보다 크게 상회하고 있습니다만, 하반기에 자보율 인하 압박, 코로나 스태그플레이션 우려 등 불확실성이 여전히 존재하고는 있습니다. 그러나 올해 보험 손익이 작년보다는 증가하는 추세를 유지할 것으로 예상이 되고 있어서, 전년 수준을 상회하는 실적을 달성해서 DPS를 확대할 수 있도록 최선을 다할 것입니다. 이상입니다.
Now, as you know, our Q2 results have outperformed expectations. As mentioned, there still exists uncertainties as we enter into the second half regarding pressures for an auto premium cut, the COVID pandemic, as well as risk of stagflation. We will do our best to make sure that, if we are able to gain a higher profit on a year-over-year basis to be able to achieve that outperformance so that we may further push up and expand our DPS.
질문 감사합니다. 그럼 다음 질문 받겠습니다.
Thank you. We move on to the next question.
다음으로 질문해 주실 분은 KB증권의 강승건 님입니다. The following question will be presented by Seung Geun Kang from KB Securities. Please go ahead with your question.
질문 기회 주셔서 감사합니다. 두 가지 질문이 있는데요. 하나는 이번 분기에 장기 위험 손해율이 매우 좋은 모습을 보였습니다. 백내장 관련된 효과도 언급을 해주셨고요. 따라서 연초에 장기 위험 손해율 전망하신 거랑은 좀 흐름이 달라지고 있는데, 하반기에 장기 위험 손해율과 관련된 전망을, 실손 쪽에 손해율로 좀 구체화시켜서 말씀해 주시면 더 좋겠는데요. 이와 관련된 전망을 좀 업데이트해 주시면 감사하겠고요.
두 번째로는 IFRS 17 시행이 네 달에서 다섯 달밖에 안 남았습니다. 보험주에 대한 투자자들의 장기 투자 성향을 감안하면, 사실은 어느 정도는 가이던스가 필요한 시점이 이미 좀 지나가지 않았나라는 아쉬움이 있습니다. 따라서 이번에 내용들이 좀 많이 업데이트가 되셨을 테니까요. 얼마 전에 세법 개정도 확정이 되었고요. 따라서 이번 실적 발표를 통해서 IFRS 17에 대한 일정 부분의 가이던스를 좀 제공해 주실 수 있으면 언급 부탁드리겠습니다.
Thank you for taking my question. I would like to ask two questions. First, we see that for your long-term business in Q2, risk loss ratio profile had been quite good, and you've mentioned the catastrophe as well, and that obviously would have had an impact.
Now, you've provided us with a risk loss ratio outlook for your long-term business, but I would have to think that outlook also went through some changes. Can you give us an update as to what your forecast is for the second half? It would also be helpful if you could also specifically talk about medical indemnities as well. Second question relates to IFRS 17.
It's only about four to five months away, and considering that, investors for insurance equities are more of long-term holders. I think we are well overdue in needing a clearer guidance as to what you expect or how you expect your business profiles to be displayed under IFRS 17.
I believe that there would be some updates that you could share with us, considering also that there was a recent revision of the relevant tax laws. Can you give us a bit more color on the guidance as to regarding your business under IFRS 17?
첫 번째 질문에 답변드릴 장기보험 전략팀장 박근배입니다.
Hello, I am Park Keun-bae, VP of Long-Term Insurance Strategy. I will respond to your first question.
말씀대로 이 분기 손해율이 전년비 4.9%포인트 감소한 84.5% 정도의 손해율을 지금 실현하고 있습니다만, 주요한 내용으로 말씀드린다면 백내장에 대한 과잉 청구에 대한 관리 강화된 부분이 사실은 상당히 큰 부분이고요.
여러 가지 실손 관련된 제도 대응 관련된 부분으로써 저희가 손금 노력에 대한 부분 투입하고 있습니다. 연간 전망으로 좀 말씀을 좀 주신 부분이 있는데, 지금 엔데믹으로 보기에는 다시 지금 재확산세가 좀 있습니다만, 궁극적으로 엔데믹이 온다고 가정한다면 의료 이용량의 증가, 그다음에 스태그플레이션의 상황, 이런 상황들에 대한 위험 요소는 있습니다.
Yes, hello. I am from Long Term Business, Park Keun-bae. I will respond to your question on the loss ratio. Yes, as you've mentioned, the Q2 2022 loss ratio did decline by 4.9 percentage points year-over-year, reporting a loss ratio of 84.5%. As mentioned, yes, it was quite largely also impacted by cataract related over claims.
As well as impact following other rule changes regarding medical indemnities. Now, if you look at our outlook, because that was also a question that you asked, as we enter into more of an endemic, although recently we've seen new wave of COVID, but as we enter into a period of endemic, there will be higher usage of healthcare services as well as potential stagflation that may be upcoming.
There are these uncertainties that still exist.
이러한 상황 속에서도 계속해서 보험금 누수 방지 및 손해 관리 강화를 통해서 손해율 안정화를 추진하겠습니다.
Despite this, overall backdrop, we will do our best to make sure that we control any insurance payment related leakages and also bring about a sustained trend of stability in terms of loss ratio by stringent control and management of claims payment.
부모 측면에서는 수익성이 높은 고수익성 상품에 대한 판매 확대 그리고 유지율의 지속적인 개선 노력을 통해서 우량 손익 지원 확보의 노력을 지속적으로 이어가겠습니다.
Now, looking at the denominator impact, we will continue to develop and sell more of a high margin product, and also will continue to improve our persistency ratio so that we can have a very firm base of sound profit.
다만 실손을 중심으로 하는 손해율은 아직도 절대 손해율치가 굉장히 높은 그런 상황입니다.
Now, except that for the medical indemnities, if you look at its loss ratio on an absolute basis, it is still quite elevated.
진단 수술비 측면에서 초년도 손해율이 소폭 상승하는 그런 현상이 있습니다.
Also, if you look at diagnosis and surgery related payment in the first year, there's been a slight uptick.
결론적으로 지금 안정화된 이 손해율에 따라서 요율 조정에 대한 부분들은 검토가 되고 있지 못한 상황입니다. 이상입니다.
All in all, in consideration of all of these situations, we're not yet in a position where we're thinking of changes in the rates on the back of such stability and loss ratio.
두 번째 질문하신 IFRS 17에 대해서 말씀드릴 계리RM팀장 최부규입니다.
Yes. Once again, this is Choi Boo Kyu, VP of Actuarial RM team. I will respond to your IFRS 17 question.
저희 회사는 이번 달까지 현재 진행 중인 사전 감사를 마무리 짓고, 이후에 전환 BS 재산출 및 2022년 결산을 진행해 나갈 예정입니다.
At the company, we will first complete the pre-audits that's ongoing by the end of this month, and then we will come up with the transition balance sheet as well as account closings for 2022.
업계 상황을 보면 타사의 경우에는 하반기에 가정 검증 및 사전 감사를 진행한 곳들이 다수인 것으로 알고 있습니다.
If you look at the greater industry, other countries I understand are conducting their validation for assumptions as well as pre-audits in the second half of the year.
시간이 다소 지연됐다고 말씀하셨지만, 업계 손익 전체적인 부분을 파악하시려면 아직 다소간의 시간이 더 필요할 것으로 판단됩니다.
You did mention that things has been quite delayed in terms of timeline, but for us to gain a more insight and the overall P&L impact under IFRS 17 in the industry-wide perspective, we do need some more time.
저희 회사에서 말씀을 드리면 사월에 말씀드린 상황과 그 시장이 전망하신 상황에 대해서 아직까지 큰 변화는 없다고 그렇게 말씀드리겠습니다. 이상입니다.
For our company specifically, there has not been any significant changes that we could actually update you on compared to what we communicated in April.
질문에 답변이 되셨습니까?
첫 번째 질문 드린 것에 대해서 좀 추가적으로 보완 질문을 드려도 될까요?
아, 네. 부탁드리겠습니다.
제가 첫 번째로 질문 드린 거는 저희가 연초에 장기 위험 손해율에 대해서 보수적인 가정을 가지고 계셨는데, 이 분기 실적으로 인해서 하반기에 장기 위험 손해율에 대한 연초 가이드라인이 변경될 수 있는지 여부가 궁금해서 질문을 드렸습니다. 그와 관련되어 있는 내용을 좀 추가로 말씀해 주시면 감사드리겠습니다.
It's just a follow-up question on my first question, because at the beginning of the year, you shared with us a quite conservative outlook for risk loss ratio trend for your long-term line. Having seen the good performance of the Q2, I'm wondering whether you have changed your guidance or outlook regarding the risk loss ratio for the second half of the year.
It would be helpful if you could provide more color on that. I'm Park Keun-bae. I will provide you with a follow-up answer to that. The company maintains the same strategy when it comes to managing the risk loss ratio. Thank you. This is the CFO. I will also provide you with some more information there.
The changes that you see on the loss ratio for long-term line is mainly on the back of changes in medical indemnity related policies, which had an impact of driving down the loss amount and that being reflected on the loss ratio trend.
Aside from medical indemnities, the loss ratio trend and the loss amount trends that we are seeing from other coverages are more or less within the baseline of our projection that we made at the beginning of the year. With regards to the loss ratio, projections or the rates for the long-term product, the company does not have any changes in its stance or policy relating to this. Next question, please.
The following question will be presented by Jaeyung Won from HSBC. Please go ahead with your question.
Well, thank you very much for good earnings this quarter. All of my questions that I wanted to ask had been previously answered. Just one additional question I want to ask, even with the lifting of social distancing in April, we still see the loss ratio for auto below 80%. Of course, recently there's been the rain, heavy rainfall damage.
Setting that aside, do you believe that, because in the second half of the year, we usually see high seasonality for loss ratio, but because of a lot of the efforts that you've put in, for instance, the increase in the premium, changes in the policies, and the regulations, and also your focus to gain more high quality insurance policies, do you think that you will be able to see some positive trends in terms of loss ratio, just as you've seen in the first half, also in the second half of the year? Oh, thank you. This is Kim Il-pyeong, VP of Automobile. I will respond to your question.
What I can tell you is that auto insurance environment is as uncertain as what you know, it's most uncertain compared to what we've seen all across the history. If you look at people's driving patterns, now we are seeing patterns that we have never seen before, and they are unprecedented.
We are using various different ways to make projections for the future, but nobody can put their foot down and be certain as to how things will play out. We have to maintain a very cautious position. As you've mentioned, looking at our past track record, yes, there is higher loss ratio usually displayed in the second half versus the first half. We do expect there could be a slight uptick in loss ratio.
We've done many forecasts and predictions, and there will be a rise, but it will not be as steep a rise as we've seen in the past. Even if it does uptick slightly, we think that we will be able to finish the end of the year at a not too bad level. Next question, please.
The following question will be presented by Myungwook Kim from JP Morgan. Please go ahead with your question.
Thank you for taking my question. I have two questions as well. First relates to your risk loss ratio. If you look at the trend for the company, it seems like the company's efforts are paying off. We see high level of persistency ratio for your protection type, and also we see more high margin protection products, being sold through your new business efforts.
It seems like all of the company's efforts are feeding through and shown in the risk loss ratio trend. Looking out three years in time, what is your projection? Due to the change in the product mix and all of your efforts, do you think that the risk loss ratio trend will stabilize at the current level or because of uncertainties relating to medical indemnities, do you not foresee any improvement or are you taking on a more conservative, stance?
Would like to gain your insight on how you see this go forward, if we think about three years down the road. Second question, your asset and liability spread is improving. I'm wondering whether with the continuing rate hike environment, do you think that there is room for further widening of the asset liability spread?
What is the company's forecast on this? As I'm VP of Long-Term Insurance, Park Keun-bae, I will respond to the first question. As you've mentioned, yes, the company had really put in a lot of effort to maintain elevated level of persistency ratio for our protection product and also to improve quality of the new businesses written and to make sure that we have a strong earnings base and earnings source through the recurring premiums.
Now, just forecasting for this year only, we expect the risk loss ratio to stay at the current level more or less. There could be an event like what we've seen regarding catastrophe in March. We think something like that could always emerge. Regarding what our projections are three years down the road, whether we would have a conservative stance or whether we would have a positive stance, I think it's too premature for us to give you a definitive stance on that.
당사는 지속적으로 재원 확보, 유연비 확보에 대한 노력을 할 것이며, 출구 관리에서도 저희가 관리 강화를 통해서 손해를 안정화를 지속적으로 목표로 하겠습니다.
Having said that, the company will do its utmost to make sure we have a secure earnings base in terms of gaining risk premium and, through a very stringent exit management, we will make sure that we continue on with a steady loss ratio trend.
이상입니다.
Thank you.
잠깐 보완해서 잠깐 추가로 좀 더 말씀드리겠습니다.
Just to add on that, I'm the CFO.
사실 3년 동안의 손해율 추이를 말씀드리기는 좀 부담은 좀 있긴 한데, 지금 추세라고 보면 실손과 관련된 부분은 아마 그 실손으로 인한 보험금을 청구하는 사람의 숫자들은 결코 줄지는 않을 거라는 생각이 좀 있고, 저희가 요율을 인상해서 그런 손해를 잡을 수 있는 시간의 개입이 어느 정도 축소되는지가 중요할 것 같은데, 실손은 현재 있는 수준에서 조금씩 개선되어 나가지 않을까 이렇게 생각을 하고 있고요.
Now, it will be quite difficult for us to provide a very definitive picture of what the loss ratio trend would look like three years down the road. Having said that, what I can tell you is that when it comes to medical indemnities, we will probably not see a decline in number of people submitting claims for payment of medical indemnities.
So what's quite important is how quickly we will be able to narrow the gap between that trend versus how quickly we could ratchet up the rate, the premiums of the medical indemnities. In consideration of that, I believe that the trend will be more or less towards improvement.
다른 건강보험과 관련된 부분에 있어서는 최근에 시장 규모를 이렇게 보면 어떤 특별한 이벤트가 있더라도 시장의 규모가 그렇게 장기보험이, 장기보험 신기하게 시장 규모 자체가 그렇게 크게 성장은 하지 못하고 있는 상황인 것 같습니다.
On the health insurance side, even if there is a certain event, it seems like the long-term new business market doesn't necessarily grow that significantly.
손보사들이 리스크가 큰 담보들을 중심으로 시장을 키우기 위한 여러 가지 경쟁들이 많이 있어서 손해율에 대한 부분에 대한 부담이 많았는데, 앞으로는 전체적으로 보면 시장 규모가 그렇게 커지지 않는다라고 보면 현재 운영되고 있는 상품의 리스크 관리나 이런 부분에 있어서는 좀 더 전 업계적으로 좀 강화되지 않을까, 그런 차원에서 보면 삼 년 동안의 장기보험의, 기타 장기보험의 손해율은 지금보다는 좀 더 안정적으로 운영되지 않을까 이렇게 판단됩니다. 이상입니다.
If you look at non-life insurers, there has been a fierce competition across the insurance companies to grow the market for coverages that insured for insured coverages that have high level of risk, and that ended up being more burdensome in terms of the loss ratio that the companies had to bear.
Considering that the market size is not going to significantly grow going forward, we expect there will be much stringent risk management around the current portfolio of products. In that light, we believe that for the other long-term insurances, excluding medical indemnities, loss ratio in general, its stability that is more likely to show improvement going forward.
예, 두 번째 스프레드 추이에 대해서 답변드릴 계리RM팀장 최부규입니다.
Yes, as the VP of Actuarial RM, I will respond to your question about the spread.
발표한 자료에서 보시듯이 저희 회사 스프레드 마진은 지속적으로 증가하여 왔습니다.
As you can refer to the presentation material, the spread margin between assets and liabilities has been continuously going up.
금리 상승에 따라서 자산 수익률뿐만 아니라 부채의 공시율도 상승하기 때문에 지금 명확하게 어떻게 되겠다 말씀드리긴 어렵지만, 하반기에도 현 수준에서 소폭 증가할 수 있을 것으로 전망하고 있습니다. 이상입니다.
With the rise in the interest rate, not only the yield from the invested assets rise, but also on the liability side, the discount rates will also actually go up. In the second half, there could be a slight increase.
질문 감사합니다. 그럼 다음 질문 받겠습니다.
Next question, please.
다음으로 질문해 주실 분은 DB금융투자의 이병건 님입니다. The following question will be presented by Byong Gun Lee from DB Financial Investment. Please go ahead with your question.
안녕하세요. DB금융투자 이병건입니다. 한 가지만 여쭤보겠습니다. 앞서 질문하신 분도 언급을 하신 바가 있는데, 세제 개편안에 보험회사의 세금 기준 전환이 과세특례 및 해약환급금 준비금 현금 환입이 신설이 된 것으로 알고 있습니다. 현실적으로는 해약환급금 준비금 현금 환입 쪽으로 갈 것 같은데, 저희가 그동안 얘기 듣거나, 물론 이제 제도가 확정이 된 것은 아닙니다만, 이렇게 보면 실질적인 법인세 부담, 그리고 이제 이것과 연계되어 있는 실제 배당 재원의 흐름이 현행 세금 기준과 크게 차이나지 않는 방향으로 가는 것으로 알고 있거든요. 그래서 그게 맞는 것인지, 그리고.
Just one question. There was a mention of a, I guess, modification of the relevant tax laws, where the IFRS 17 converted profit, there would be a taxation, a special exemption clause that would be included, and also the inclusion in the expense deduction regarding the surrender reserve.
Now I believe that with the application of these, the distributable income with the amount, the resources for distribution or dividend is not going to be much different as compared to that amount calculated under the current accounting standards. Is my understanding correct? Or if that is not the case, could you provide some more detail regarding that? Yes. I am VP of Corporate Finance and Accounting, and I'm Yu Seung Nam.
As you've mentioned with the recent revision of the tax law, basically, the reserve for the surrender benefit, as under IFRS four and IFRS 17 or under the new accounting standards, it will be recognized as a deduction to expense.
As a result, correct, we do not foresee any significant changes or impact that would have on the distributable resources. Thank you. Since we do not have any more questions on the queue, we would like to close the earnings presentation of Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance's first half 2022 earnings presentation. Thank you very much for joining us.