A pleasure to be here. I think the last time I was here was same time of year. I was actually down at Bellagio. The Strip was closed because they were setting up the stands for the race and I basically had to run from Bellagio to get here because there was no way to get here. So despite the fact that the Strip is still a mess and everything is still a mess for the race, I'm staying here. So it was not a problem. Is there a t here we go. I found the clicker. So, like I said, I'm going to be doing a very heavy data presentation and I'm glad I was able to catch at least the last part of the AutoZone presentation because I'm in the back of the room nodding, going, huh? Yep. Fleet's getting older parts, parts, parts.
So hopefully this will shed some light on some of what we're seeing. And the data that I use to do everything that I'm presenting, it really starts with vehicle title and registration data. We get this from all the DMVs. We also have data sources that come in from the various OEMs. And so we're really looking at what is happening in the U.S. market. And my presentation, of course, being Experian, we're also going to look at what's happening with the consumer credit information because really, like we always say, you need three things to buy a car, you need one, you need a car, you need a consumer, and you need credit. So this all kind of rolls into keeping the market moving. So I am going to focus really though, on just the retail side of things.
And when I'm talking retail, it's going to be both loans, leases, but really just everything consumer driven. So I'm not going to focus on anything going on in fleet, government sales, those kinds of things. Really going to be looking at retail. So from a finance standpoint, the market's doing pretty well this year. We're up a little bit year- over- year, just under 2% for retail financing. So far through August, we've done about 17 million transactions. Now that's just unit based, not dollar based. I'll get into that later. But what's been very interesting in the market was what we saw when the rates went up, and when the rates went up, we saw an increased amount of cash come into the industry. And you kind of think that's counterintuitive. It's like, okay, money costs more, but now we're getting more cash.
So what you're seeing on the bottom of the chart are the percentage of cash transactions in the retail space. Now historically on new, which is the blue bar, you can see, you know, five, 10 years ago you'd see 12%, 13% cash. Well, these days we're about 20% cash on the new car side. And for used vehicles we are at an all-time high for cash. And when I get into the part of the presentation that's going to focus on used, a lot of that, I'll explain some of those reasons why we see that. But again, all-time high for cash in the industry. Now leasing of course drives late model availability and late model inventory. And of course we hit record lows of leasing a couple of years ago and this year so far we've been averaging around 24% lease.
But the net game of this is our off-lease returns. This year is the trough from a retail standpoint really about 2.2 million in off-lease returns. So that high demand late model vehicle that consumers want is very scarce. So next year we're going to pick up a few more units. We're going to kind of return to some normal levels in 2027, but nowhere near the 4 million off-lease units that we had a handful of years ago. So what this is causing is it's really, it's driving consumers and into a different marketplace. And like I said, I caught the AutoZone presentation, it's driving consumers into older and older vehicles and when I switch into the used car market we'll really dig into that. But another thing to focus on is when we talk about these off-lease vehicles and I have a couple of slides on EV.
More and more of the off-lease vehicles coming towards the end of this year and into next year are EVs. So we're going to, it's going to be a little bit of a flood, but still it's a relatively small volume but they're coming and the dealers are going to have to start accommodating these off-lease EVs. So from a lease standpoint, you know, we still see Honda as the number one. Just from a pure volume play, Tesla kind of ranked down a little bit. And you can see we've got some big movers on the, on the leasing front y ear- over- year. You've got Tesla picking up a lot, you've got Mercedes picking up a lot. Who is that? Also you got Caddy picking up. But the big drivers in the year- over- year increasing on leasing was all driven due to EV.
And this is, this is primarily Q3 data. And it was again that, that rush to get into the tax rebates and the incentive dollars that all really caused these huge increases for some of these lessors. Now, from a credit standpoint, credit is interesting. So credit scores have been continuing to increase. People say, well, it was really the COVID tax dollars and everything, well, that accelerated it. But it's been increasing for years. And we've done some studies looking at our consumer credit database and looking at the median credit scores even within each of the bands. Just overall, the consumer population has been steadily increasing their credit and steadily improving their credit. Right now, average new credit scores up 2.755. Used has been relatively flat. And the reason the used is flat is because also more of the prime consumers are moving into the used car market.
And again, it's all based on affordability. But like I said, we've done some studies and we showed that more and more consumers, on a regular basis, every single month, pay off all their credit card debt. You know, they just kind of use the credit card, getting points, pay it off every month, et cetera, kind of move on. But overall, the consumer credit looks pretty good. Now the car population pretty much mirrors that of the entire credit population. When I look at the universe, I mean we've got, I want to say it's about 89 million- 90 million open auto loans and leases. And when you consider about 300 million credit population, it's a pretty good penetration. So we pretty much mirror overall consumer credit. Now the one thing that is still a little down is what's occurring down in our subprime buyers.
So I break this up into looking at 100 of the universe. So it's not looking at volume. But if I do look at volume, subprime, which is the bottom of the chart. So my deep subprime is going to be 500 and below. So you can see we've got a little bit of an increase year- over- year. It's at very bottom of the chart. But you know, five years ago it was a little over 2%. And if I go back fifteen years ago, and I've been doing this for a while, more than fifteen years, it was a much larger part of the market. It was closer to about 5%. But again, part of it is there's just not that population. They've kind of increased their scores, they've moved up. So the biggest area I'm seeing most of the growth occur is really in the prime population.
And when you're looking at new car buyers, that's what the new car buyer is. You know, the new car market is a prime market mostly. Again, affordability, used car market, a bit more full spectrum, you get a little bit more in the subprime space. But like I said, right now I'm seeing a little bit of growth in that subprime area, but it's still pretty modest. We still have not fully recovered the subprime volume post-COVID like we were running, you know, like, like mid-teens and then COVID hit and it just dropped off. It's picked up a little bit, but still these are consumers, I think, that are still being kept out of the market due to affordability issues. So from a finance standpoint, as far as who is doing the lending, this is total finance and new used loans and leases. Banks are skyrocketing.
So the banks are in the dark blue. They are the largest lender type right now, over 28%. Almost 29% of the market is being driven by banks. Now there's some nuances with that. You can see the captive share is down. The credit unions kind of flat, a little bit down. Finance companies in that lavender line, they're also picking up steam. A lot of Fincos going full spectrum, getting a bit more aggressive. But let me talk about what's going on with the banks for a little bit. So I have, I've been doing these quarterly update presentations. I think this next quarter Q3 is going to be my 75th quarter that I'll put out. That's a lot of quarters. Like you can do the math and figure out when I started doing this.
But what's going on with the banks is I've talked with probably every single one of the top 10 auto lending banks and they're all expressing the same thing and that is getting more aggressive. They're looking to expand, they're looking to grow again and they're looking to do things like buy a little deeper, buy older, get a bit more aggressive on LTVs. Because the used car market, the values are still pretty elevated, so severity is down. But there's also a few other things going on with that bank market share. So you have of course Wells Fargo, who's now doing VW and Audi. So Volkswagen is still going to do the leasing, but all the loans are rolling into Wells Fargo. You also have the relatively newer relationship with Chase and Tesla, so that's also causing some of that growth.
So there's a few of the relationships that are enhancing. Plus again, they're getting more aggressive and they are out there to grow. Now when we look at just the loan front, this is again just looking at new loans. And you can again really see that dramatic increase from the banks. And again, like I said, some of those relationships and the different changes, you know, credit unions really just picked up that lion's share in 2022. They were slow to raise their rates. They quickly caught on. They did raise the rates and then once the market got a bit more aggressive, some of that share really started to drop down. But again, on the new car, if the inventory wasn't there and the captives weren't doing incentives, they weren't getting the share.
Like I said, it was going to the banks, a lot of it due to relationships. And again, they just really skyrocketed. What was happening now? I mentioned affordability. Anyone in the room bought a car in the past year? One, two, two. Okay, go out and help the market buy more cars. Okay. I must admit, I did not buy a car this year. I tried, but I was not at home. I tried to get on the EV front at the last minute and it did not work out so well. So affordability definitely a concern. So this is Q3 and I will admit we're starting to see some larger month over month increases right now. We're in the mid-42,000's for the average new loan amount so very elevated.
Like I said, I've been doing this for a long time and pre- Covid we were in the low 30 ,000. Once prices go up, they don't come down. So you had all the dealer markups, you had all that happen when inventory was short, inventory recovered, prices didn't come down. So on the loan side, 751, I must admit, last month we hit 770. We're going to blow through 800 before the year is out. So on the APR front, rates are coming down a little bit. Hopefully with this quarter point decrease, we'll see some additional decreases here. Term continues to increase. For those of us that have been doing this for a long time, I can still remember when people said, oh my gosh, 60 months, that's a long term loan. What's the market going to do? Well, 72 is the most common. 84 is increasingly growing.
We have specialty lenders coming out with 97 +. We have one lender out there who's regularly doing 120 months on very prime credit. But term is not keeping consumers out of the dealers. I know a lot of dealers were concerned when all of a sudden 72 became the number one. They thought the consumer's not going to come back. Well, that's really not the case the attrition rates across the term. Term does not matter. Consumers are going to try at the same rate at 84 as they are at 72 as they are at 60. So there's really not an impact to consumers coming back to the market. Now. The one big thing is consumers coming back to the market right now. Their last purchase was five years ago.
And again, if they're a new car buyer, five years ago their loan amounts were in the low 30s. Now they're in the mid-40s. So huge difference in the market. Now o ne thing I always of course like to talk about is what we're seeing with the $1,000 payments. Yeah, $1,000 payments. So this actually was supposed to be a build, but I missed my build. So a handful of years ago before again, all the MSRP markups and the dealer markups, you had a low percentage of payments that were over $1,000. Now it's over 17%. And just last month again we were almost at 18%. So the $1,000 payments have been very interesting. Prior to the big jump that we saw in 2021 and 2022, these were consumers that knew what they were getting into. You know, they knew the payment was going to be over $1,000.
Then they're coming back to market in 2022 where the same vehicle that they paid, you know, $40,000 was now being marked up to $48,000, rates were up and it pushed that into over $1,000. They did not perform. The 2022 vintages are, most of them are off the books already. Those that were going to go bad have gone bad. So they're pretty much off the books. They did not perform. Does anyone want to guess what the number one vehicle is with $1,000 payment? Anyone want to make this interactive? Want to call on somebody? F150. That is exactly it. It is the F150. It is an average of a $78,000 loan with a 72 month term at a 6%-7% rate. With a $1,300 payment, people think the thousand dollar. And until you're at the 13th vehicle of a thousand dollar payment, they're all trucks, big SUVs.
The 13th vehicle is an, is a Lexus and it is one of the SUVs. So again, they're not high lines, these are not luxury vehicles, but they are big trucks and they are expensive. So the other thing that we are seeing in the new car market is of course shrinking affordability and more and more of new car buyers being pushed into the higher earning households. So this is a very simple break. So I initially broke this down into like below $50,000, $50,000- $75,000, $75,000- $100,000. But it made a lot of lines. So I made it just very simple. The top line in pink are households that earn less than $100,000 again at the household level. And a handful of years ago, you know, they were 65% of new car buyers. Now they're less than 50%.
And look at the line that's growing, that bottom one. Households making more than $200,000 and a handful of years ago, less than 9%. It's approaching 20%. Well, it's almost 19%. It'll be 20% in the next couple months. So again, we've got more and more being pushed out of the new car market. And it's happening also when used, when I get into the used car front. But again, very simplistic income groups. So the other thing, of course, our generations, who are these consumers buying these vehicles. So I am happy to say the dark purple line at the very top is Gen X. We are still number one. We are still the number one car buyers. Millennials, though, are right on our heels. They are quickly approaching up. And the other thing to really watch though is growing factor of what is going delinquent.
So they are increasingly representing a larger portion of the delinquent auto accounts. So it's unfortunate they're becoming a larger portion, but they're also becoming a larger portion of what goes bad. Okay, so I have to do a September figures in. For September, EV hit about 12% of the new car market. It'll be very interesting what happens to the rest of the market. You can kind of see what happened so far. January through August, a little bit of ramp down. As the tax credits were going away, we ramped it up. Like I said, I was at a leasing conference in New Orleans the last two days of September and I'm listening to an EV presentation.
I'm like, can I get in on this, and of course, I called every single dealer in my Denver metro marketplace and unfortunately I was unsuccessful in purchasing a vehicle over the phone. And there were no ID 4s in my state or any of the surrounding states, so I unfortunately was not able to get in on. It's kind of like when you bid at an auction and you just EV front. Of course, they drove leasing, and that lower right hand side you can see EVs were 20% of what was leased in Q3. So again, when you start thinking about what's coming off lease, actually, this is, I updated that. Actually, unfortunately, I think we actually hit 25% over Q3, so we've got about one in four to one in five off-lease vehicles are going to be an EV.
So again, dealers going to be prepared with this because they are coming, and EVs are a little different because when you look at leasing, traditional leasing is 36 months on the EV front, it gets a little more split between 24 and 36 months. So they're about 50-50 between 24 and 36. So a lot of EV is going to start coming back next year and increasingly more of them coming back the following year, which brings us to the used EVs. Of course, majority are still Teslas. About 57% of the used EVs purchased this year are Tesla. But volume is growing. So far this year we're almost 390,000 used EVs purchased through August. Last year we did less than that. So we're probably going to wrap up the year around 500,000 or so.
Most of them come up into financing under what we classify as our buy here, pay here, which we classify as a finance type. And to just kind of clue you in, the number one retailer of used EVs is Carvana, and so they're also the number two finance type for used EVs is Carvana. CarMax is also way up there, but Carvana number one. Now we start moving into the used car market again from a finance company standpoint. Banks dominating. They're spreading the gap a little bit. Credit unions, credit unions are kind of turning back to getting more aggressive again, but again, banks are going full steam, they're getting more aggressive. The other thing to really note here is what's happening with the finance companies. So these are the model loan lenders. They don't have deposit accounts, they really just focus on auto. They're mostly subprime.
A few of them go full spectrum, but they're now 20% of the used car market. So we've got a lot of growth going on within cos. And again, some of this is going more full spectrum, but is the push into older and older vehicles. So one of the aggressive points that banks are starting to do is a lot of banks will say, you know, I'll finance current plus eight. So current plus eight model years. Some of them go to nine, some of them are starting to explore 10, 11, 12 credit unions historically. I was at a credit union conference actually last week and I have heard credit unions say, if I can decode the VIN, I'm going to finance it. So that brings you all the way back to what a 67. So yeah, they're going to finance if they can decode.
So banks are again starting to get a little bit more aggressive, go a little bit older because they need to again late model inventory growing short and this is where the Fincos really pick up because a lot of the finance companies will finance older vehicles and they will do it full spectrum. So again when we start looking at the household income standpoint for the used car market, we're also squeezing out the lower income households. So again the under $100,000 it's a majority of the market. But again even the higher household earning households. Gotta get my sentence right. Are moving into these older vehicles and again it's increasingly making a very aggressive used car market. Like I said, I was glad I caught the at least the end of the AutoZone because like I said I'm in the back of the room going huh?
Yep, these are consumers who are buying older cars and they're going to maintain them. So again on the old car front there's a lot of stuff going on in the slide. So let me explain it. On the left hand side I have 2020 compared to 2025. And I break the vehicles into vehicle age groups. So the top of the chart in blue on the left are our new vehicles. Right below that is current plus three model year. On the used side look at the decrease. Again this is due to the very severe lack of off lease vehicles. Tight demand. Five years ago 16.5%. Now it's less than 12%. Right below that in purple, not really a lot of change. But that's our 4 year old-8 year old vehicle. It's still out there. But another big growth is the 9+. 9+ model year vehicles.
Five years ago 41% of the market, now it's almost 44%. And on the right hand side it breaks up those age groups by credit band. And again people kind of think that oh these older vehicles it's just subprime. Well, Subprime is the largest. Subprime is 31% of a 9+ year-old vehicle. But half of the consumers buying these cars are Prime + like I said, they're going to maintain them, they're buying these older vehicles, they're going to maintain them and they're buying them due to affordability issues. So they're out there and they're increasingly growing. And this is also why we see more and more lenders saying you know, I'm going to open up my buy box I'm going to add in a 10-year-old vehicle, an 11-year-old vehicle. Now some of the very prime banks are cherry picking.
You know, they're taking a 10-12-year-old vehicle with very low mileage with a prime consumer. So that is happening. But again, it's more and more consumers looking to move into these older vehicles. So the other thing of course is I mentioned older vehicles and it's not just the independents. You kind of think, oh, old vehicles, it's just the buy here, pay here. It's the independent stores that's not the case. So at the top is franchise stores. What percentage of their sales are 9+ and it's a huge increase. We've gone from just year over year, 14%- 16.5% of a franchise store sales are 9+ year-old vehicles. Now the independents, a little bit more stable but still also a very big growth. 50% are now over 9+ years old. Now if I factor in the private party, it also is pretty significant.
But this one is just looking at it from a dealer standpoint. So when we do look at the 9+ year-old vehicles, people are like, oh, it's just going to be late model. Well, that's not the case. You can kind of see this is of the 9+, about half of them go up to about 15 years old. But that also means half of the sales are over 15 years old. So again, consumers are buying these older cars, they're going to maintain them, they're going to keep them on the roads. The VIO out there, the car park is getting older and older and it's not going to shut down anytime soon. So on the used front, again, from the affordability standpoint, this is why we see the market getting older and older. Affordability, so Q3 of this year, our used car loans hit over $27,000.
Now again, if I go back to my old data tables, I've been doing this since 2007, looking at these figures. Back then it was like $18,000 for a used car loan. We're at $27,000 now. So on the payment front, of course most consumers are payment buyers. They go in, negotiate payment, which I don't recommend doing. But on the franchise side, we're in the mid-$500s. $550, $556. Even on the independents, we're at $500 just about for a monthly payment. So like I said, prices go up, they're not going to come down. So if tariffs go up, tariffs come on, it's going to increase. If they go away, it's not coming down. So rates came down a little bit on the used car front. Part of that is again because more prime consumers moved into used.
Part of it also was because bank share increased and the bank share is going to be a little bit lower. Rates and terms still at about 67 months. 72 is still the most common term on used, which always kind of cracks me up because I still remember coming across, I think it was a Federal Reserve paper put out in the mid-80s that was warning about long term loans and their warning was at 48 months and that was considered a long term loan. So yeah, not really happening these days. If you want a 48 month loan at a $35,000 vehicle, you are well over a $1,000 payment and it's not going to be a high line and it won't even be the F-150 because that's going to be way out of the budget.
So again when I start looking at what's happening from that affordability front and more people moving into older and older vehicles, this is part of the reason. So like I said, about five years, five years ago is about the last time consumers came back to the market. For those that bought the first part of and if they were coming on looking for a $400 payment, you're 9 years+ , $414, a late model vehicle payment, $623, that was more than what a used car payment was five or six years ago. So again, huge differences. Of course as consumers move into the older vehicles, the rates go up, the terms come down across all risk bands and like I said, half of these consumers in that 9+ are Prime consumers. But again, rates will go up, term will come down.
You might find an occasional lender who's going to do a, you know, 72 month term loan on a 15 year old car. But it's going to be onesie- twosies. So usually on average as you can see, you're going to get less than 60 months on these older vehicles. But again, cars last longer. So again our VIO is growing and this just really shows that increase. So looking at it from a trend line and I'm only doing the used car. So again, that late model used car, that high demand, what people want, that CPO, that off lease vehicle five, six years ago is a $400 payment. Again now you're in the six hundreds and that's been the area that's been the most impacted.
With the increased auction values and again pushing more and more consumers into these older vehicles, again, if you're wanting something, you know, under $400 or under $500, you're in an old car. So again, like I said, I was glad I caught the end of the AutoZone presentation. And these are well outpacing the rate of inflation. You can see just the late model since 2015 it's up, you know, almost 56%. So it should be, if you adjust this for inflation, that late model payment should be in the upper 500s, like $565, $580. I think it is. We're well beyond that. Like I said, it's not going to come down. So again, high demand for these because we've got low off-lease vehicles. This isn't going to change anytime soon.
So what that translates into and end up with lots of time for questions, what this translates into, what's happening with our portfolios? I was really waiting to hit that $1.6 trillion. We hit it for Q3. I kind of felt like celebrating. I'm like $1.6 trillion. So the growth rate on our outstanding balances is relatively low. We're growing around 1% for the past couple of years in our balances. Part of this because again we haven't seen the huge increase in the balances and the loan amounts that we did going from 2021- 2022, but $1.6 trillion in open automotive balances. It's still lower than what mortgage is, but it's the number two balance out there. Most of it is Prime. We have however seen some increases in our Subprime balances. So not necessarily good news. But the subprime balances have definitely grown.
You can see our Deep Subprime, about 2.7% Subprime in total, which is 600 credit scores and below it's about 5% year- over- year. And of course part of that is because of Delinquency. So a lot going on on the Delinquency front. So we are pretty much at a record high for Delinquency. So my data tables go back to 2006. We've blown past the 2009 figures which Q3 of 2009 was pretty much the peak that we saw for Auto Loan Delinquency. We're beyond that. However, severity is down because the auction values are still elevated. And over the last couple years on the used car front, the LTVs have been down. So consumers had more money on their trade-ins. They were into their cars a little longer. So the LTVs were looking pretty good. So severity is down now. The most important figure here.
So the left-hand side in blue are 30-day Delinquency rates. The right-hand side is 60. The top are units, the bottom is dollar. So the most important figure here unfortunately is 0.91% of the nearly $1.6 trillion dollars in auto balances is at a 60-day delinquency status. Now about 38% of those will roll to the next highest status. So unfortunately our roll rates are increasing. Another about 30% will pretty much stay where they are. They'll still stay at 60. Whether it's because lenders are not going after the vehicle or just kind of still working with the consumer, kind of letting it float. Then the other just under a third, about half of those of that third will actually cure back to current and the other third or the other half of that will roll back to 30. But we are increasing our roll rates.
More and more consumers who are hitting at a delinquency status are rolling into the next highest status. Now there's another little factor that is playing a role here that's always been around, but it's more prevalent today. Does anyone want to guess what it is? Starts with an F. It's not that word, it's the other one. It's called Fraud. Fraud is increasingly becoming a larger part of what is delinquent. We did a study, like I said, it's the other F word. We did a study looking at the loans from last year that defaulted and we identified $4 billion in auto was lost due to Fraud. $4 billion. For that year that we did the study, we found another $7.6 billion that was anticipated to be lost due to fraud.
It was part of the trajectory that we were tracking that was probably going to go into a fraud situation, but just hadn't done it yet when we did the study. Last year alone, just $4 billion lost to fraud. This is why again, it's putting out more and more fraud tools, both with the lenders, but increasingly getting it in front of the dealers. One thing I can say because it's public. I think AutoNation presented earlier today, didn't they? Yeah. AutoNation just recently rolled out one of our fraud products to all of their stores and it's essentially doing driver's license scans, photo scans, validating you are who you are. It's been highly successful. They actually when they were beta testing and they rolled it out to all 300 stores, it was very cool.
When they were beta testing this, they had one store where a guy came in and it's all done on your phone and a guy came in and they were like, oh well we need you to do this. He's like, oh, I need to go to the bathroom. He never came back. You know exactly what he was doing. He was there for Fraud. Fraud increasingly a problem. Hopefully, you know, more and more stores will roll out whether it's our tools or others, hopefully more and more roll out tools to get it in front of the consumer and keep Fraud down. Hopefully we'll see some of these Delinquency numbers decrease. It was still out there in 2009 but it's just more and more prevalent today. Just in summary and then I think I've got about 10 or 12 minutes for questions.
So a lot going on with the industry. Like I said, leasing is still down so far this year, you know, we've not gotten back. I don't think we're ever going to get back to the, you know, 33%-34% leasing rates we saw. It's all going to hinge on inventory and whether the manufacturers are going to feel like consenting with a lease. Leasing is expensive so I don't expect to see leasing to get back to those levels again. Affordability continues to be an issue that's not going away anytime soon. Like I said, we're starting to see some of the tariff impact because we've had larger than normal month- over- month, year- over- year increases in our loan amounts. If you caught automotive news recently, you probably saw that the delivery charges were increased and some quite a bit. So we expect that to continue to increase.
Again the new car front, both new and used higher earning households representing a larger and larger portion of the market. Hopefully that might have an impact on delinquency but so far not really seeing it. And again EV, it'll be very interesting what happens the rest of the year as far as where EVs end up as well as what's going to happen next year and the ongoing years. It'll be interesting to track, you know, what states are doing with like California with the potential new rebate. And like I said, I'm in Colorado. Our rebates losing $1,500 next year, getting an oil change on Thursday, we'll find out if I buy a car or not. So like I said, you can lease an Ioniq 5 for $99 right now. $99. Who wouldn't do that?
Said I might have two cars in my driveway next week so it'll be interesting to see. And again, banks really getting more aggressive, picking up more share, really rolling ahead. And again just kind of keeping up what's going on with an overall delinquency front. That is it from a data dump on you. One thing I will tell you is we do put out several presentations. They are free. You can scan the QR code, you can get them on our website. The one I do is a state of the Automotive Finance market report. My Q3 presentation comes out. I think it's the first week of December. And then there's a colleague of mine that does a consumer trends that brings in demographic information into what's going on with car buyers. And then another colleague does an automotive market.
They're actually over at AAPEX and SEMA right now because that one really focuses on like VIO what's going on from an OEM standpoint includes medium heavy, you know, all that kind of good stuff. They are free. So feel free to, you know, grab them. We won't inundate you with marketing information either. You can just get them. And don't worry that we're going to, you know, sell your names. All right, questions anyone? I think we've got about 10 minutes.
Thank you very much for the presentation. Michelle, where do you think the 60-day Delinquency rate goes and at what p oint does this become a major problem? Or at least a significant problem for the industry?
Well, so it's interesting on the Delinquency front because there's definitely different risk based on different lending segments. Like if you go out and talk to the credit unions, the banks and the captives, they're all over here saying we're not having a problem, we're well below industry averages. It's again, it's mostly in the Finco space. I mean, we've read the highlights, we've seen who's declared bankruptcy. So it's those kind of areas that are hit the most. But overall it's just very cyclical. You know, you look at the Delinquency levels, like I said, I've been tracking this since 2004. Actually my data table goes to 2006 and it's just very cyclical. You know, we're going to hit high peaks of delinquency. If the lender start seeing increased severity, they're going to pull back. So I just, I really see us, we're just kind of on that normal cycle curve.
So I guess I had the same reaction as you, Michael. You know, when I'm looking at y our s lide deck in totality, it seems as if we are heading towards some bad behavior by participants, which for people that have been through a few downturns, how does this era compare maybe to other times where periods of stress may have followed?
So I think the difference today is these levels of delinquency are not unexpected. Of course, the 2022 vintages, they did not perform. They did not perform in a very poor performing way. 21, 22, early 23s. The issue though is most of those are off the books now. Those that were going to go bad, most of them did go bad. The vintages over the last two years are actually performing very well. So I was actually, unfortunately I just got the data on it like two days ago, so I wasn't able to put it in the presentation. But the last two year vintages are performing better than 2019. So in 2019 was not a bad year. Those, those performed pretty well.
So the other thing of course to keep in mind is again, the auction values are still elevated and they will remain elevated because of the high demand. So again, we've got decreased severity going on for those that are charged off. So I will say that was probably what was happening earlier. Like prior to the auction values increasing, you had lenders who just weren't going after the cars. Like if they had to repo, if the car was, you know, maybe had, you know, damage or, you know, title issues, a lot of them weren't going after the cars. That's not happening anymore. They are going after the cars and they're going after them sooner. So I think we're really just in a different market because again, severity is down, the market's doing well.
Like I said, a lot of this still, you know, fraud is a bigger role today than it was. But also lenders, lenders have anticipated this. Yeah. So it's not a surprise to anybody.
I guess, you know, as long as the lenders have their books in order. But when you start talking about 84 month loans, 96 month loans and then now 120 month loan, you know, that raises some eyebrows. Even if it's, even if they're tangential and one off. I suppose my next question is, have you ever, have you done any studies as it relates to average transaction or, I'm sorry, average monthly payment as a percentage of average monthly income and what, and what that looks like?
Yeah, unfortunately for the PTI stuff, we've got some of the payment income a lot more modeled, but I have not actually been able to do any studies around that. Now I want access that data to see if I can do any studies around that. You would think we have all this data, but I can't access all of it.
When you're thinking about the Electric Vehicle market and the amount of leases that are going to be coming back on the market from a used perspective, what does your data tell you about whether there's going to be demand for those used Electric Vehicles?
Yeah, so this is going to be very interesting and I think this has an opportunity to open up a late model vehicle market to more of the subprime buyer who might not have been able to afford because of the value decrease on some of these. I mean, some of these have some pretty significant value decreases and then we still have some used rebates that are coming into play, but some of those of course, still going away. But I think it does have the potential to open up this, you know, a late model EV to a consumer who might not have been able to afford, you know, late model vehicle anyway.
I mean, you already heard some of that on the new car front with some dealers saying, hey, I was able to get this, you know, subprime buyer into an EV because of the rebates and the tax credits and it brought the PTI down. So I do think it does potentially open the market. Now that doesn't address, you know, the ability of that consumer to charge at home.
That's right, yeah. Aren't a lot of garages.
Yeah. So I mean there certainly is that issue, but I think it does potentially have the impact of up a late model vehicle to a consumer that might not have been able to afford it.
When you're thinking about this data in its totality and you know, some of the statistics that were shown, does this really kind of keep U.S. in a 16 million SAAR at the new vehicle level? We are really kind of capped there because, you know, going back, it's arguable that there's pent up demand in the marketplace, but the affordability aspect is really going to keep that lid on.
That's a really tough question because again, I think it's really going to come down to, again, tariff impact. It's impacting different manufacturers in many different ways. It impacts different models even within the same manufacturer. So there's that carryover. But yes, there's definitely pent up demand, but affordability does keep consumers out and it's really going to tie down to if the manufacturer has inventory and is able to offer incentives to make that a more attractive market. But mostly I would defer that question to my good friend Jonathan Smoke over at Cox Automotive and let him ramble on that one.
As you had some really interesting slides about Gen X, Gen Z and what you're seeing there. How should we naturally want to see that progress from a healthy and market standpoint?
I think it's just all generational aging. I mean, I think whatever generation you label it 20 years ago, you could look at the same thing.
Okay.
You know, you've got.
Is this abnormal r elative to other generations?
I think it is. It's the same thing. It's as consumers age, they're able to afford the vehicles, they're going to move up. And this is why you see the Millennials increasingly becoming a larger part of the market, because it's such a broad age group and as they age, they're buying more vehicles and moving into, you know, the SUVs and the minivans for the kids moving into suburbia. So it's all just, I just see it all as the same thing. Same thing as the older generation starting to fall out. And they're big leasers, by the way. But which generation is that? The boomers. Yeah, boomers and silent, very heavy leasing. Which is a bit morbid because you're like, well, of course they're going to leasing. I said it's a bit morbid. But yeah, it is what it is.
We've got a couple minutes. Okay, go ahead.
I had a question. Thank you for the presentation. It was really informative.
One minute, sorry.
Yeah. So what we've seen is that those late model year cars are at risk of being considered total by the insurance companies as the cost of repairs going up. And I see that now. It's a large portion of the books for the Finco companies. Is that considered in the 9% and how much additional risk is on their books because of that?
Yeah. So this is just based on originations, so it wouldn't be based on what percentage of their overall portfolio is grouped by vehicle age. This was just based on what was originated. I think a lot of that total loss you do see definitely more on the EV front, which is not really that big in the Finco space. I think the one thing that we're going to continue to monitor, and I didn't include anything here, is as the VIO and as the car parc ages and of course you start getting more damage on the car parc, these vehicles don't necessarily go away, you know, they're still out there in the marketplace. So it'll be interesting to see as time goes on.
Again, as three-year-old vehicles are increasingly scarce, what percentage of the vehicles that consumers are actually buying and financing have issues and have title damage and have major issues because they're out there. There's one large Finco I was talking with last week, their largest dealer, branded title brands. That's all they do. And it was like really, you have a dealer that only sells branded vehicles, like wow. And they're the number one lender within that store. So a lot of it is just being aware of it and managing it from that standpoint because if you have an issue with the car, it's going to go bad at a much higher rate than a vehicle that doesn't have an issue.
Are you seeing?
I'm sorry, we got to move it along. T his was fantastic. I'm just sorry we have to move along the program. Thank you very much for being here. This was fascinating.
Thank you. Thanks.
Oh, wonderful. Okay, great.
Moving on to that. In my view, a real opportunity for a great company with some real growth within the aftermarket. Phinia is an Auburn Hills, Michigan-based supplier for both the automotive OE market, commercial truck as well, and in the aftermarket. The company has roughly 39 million shares, about $2 billion equity cap. Balance sheet is in good shape with about $600 million of net debt, $2.7 billion total enterprise value. We have the company's President and CEO Brady Erickson here and we'll jump right into Q and A. As a spin from BorgWarner, this is a really intriguing company to me. Brady, thank you very much for being here and Chris as well.