Trading Update

Oct 6, 2021

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the PageGroup 2021 Q3 Results Call. My name is Seb, and I will be the operator for your call today. I will now hand the floor to Steve Ingham, Chief Executive Officer to begin. Please go ahead, Steve. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Page Group 3rd quarter trading update. As a result of the quarterly trading being much Stronger than expected, we brought this call forward. Thank you for joining us at short notice, and apologies for any inconvenience this has caused. I'm Steve Ingham, Chief Executive Officer. And on the call with me is Kelvin Stagg, Chief Financial Officer. Although I'll not read it through, I'd just like to make reference to the legal formalities that are covered in the cautionary statement in the appendix to this presentation, and which will also be available on our website following the call. The improvement in trading conditions we Experienced at the end of Q2 continued into the Q3. Consequently, the group delivered gross profit of 228 £1,000,000 in the quarter. Against 2020, we grew 65.4%. Given the magnitude of the impact of COVID-nineteen in 2020, we're also comparing our results in constant currencies throughout this presentation To our record gross profit year of 2019, compared to Q3 2019, We grew 12.9% in constant currencies. This compares to plus 2% in Q2 And minus 10% in Q1. The quieter summer months of July August was Slightly behind the growth we saw in June of 11%, up 4% and 9%, respectively. However, as we saw in Q1 and Q2, conditions improved materially in the last month of the quarter. And in September, we grew 26% versus 2019, our record year. As a result of this improvement in trading conditions, we're today announcing an upgrade in our guidance for the year. We now expect full year operating profit to be in the region of £155,000,000 Reflecting the continued improvement in trading conditions in Q3, we increased our fee on a headcount by 329. This makes a net $627,000,000 to the end of September. And as such, our fee earner headcount It's currently down just 4% on the pre pandemic level at the end of 2019. Our operational support headcount rose by 74. And as such, our ratio of fee earners to operational support staff Was maintained at 77,000,000 to 23,000,000. Overall, the group had 5,772 bieners And a total headcount of 7,478. We have a strong balance sheet With net cash at the end of September of around GBP 195,000,000 this is before the previously announced dividend payments of £100,000,000 payable to shareholders a week today on the 13th October. As mentioned, we saw a significant improvement in September, which was up 26% on 2019. The growth rate in all of our regions improved in Q3 over Q2, And all regions exited the quarter in September ahead of the Q3 growth rate. Our 5 large high potential markets of Germany, Greater China, Latin America, Southeast Asia and the U. S. Delivered the standout results in the quarter, reaching a new milestone of 40% of the group collectively. They grew 27% in the quarter and exited in September, up 45% on 2019. This was ahead of the rest of the group, which was up 15% in the same month. 4 out of these 5 markets delivered record quarters With Greater China held back by itself the trading conditions in Hong Kong, we now have 2,300 fee earners across these 5 markets compared to around 800 in 2010 coming out of the global financial crisis. Looking now at each of our regions, in our largest region, Europe, Middle East and Africa, which represented 46% of the group. We grew 9.9% on 2019, up from 0.4% in Q2. Against 2020, this representing growth of 45.8%. France declined 8% against 2019, an improvement on the decline of 11% in Q2. September showed further improvement exiting the quarter up 5%. Page Personnel representing around 60% of France and with a higher proportion of temporary workers was impacted more significantly by the lockdowns, Down 16% for the quarter. Michael Page was more resilient, up 8%. Germany, the group's 3rd largest market, delivered a record quarter, up 33% with September up 39. This continues to be driven by our Michael Page interim business, which was up 57% for the quarter And exited in September, up 73%. Belgium, Italy and Spain grew 8%, 14% 22% respectively for the quarter versus 2019 with Germany, Austria and Turkey delivering record quarters despite the quieter summer months. In Asia Pacific, Representing 22 percent of the group, gross profit was up 20.4% on 2019, up from 10.5% in Q2, the 2nd consecutive record quarter. Against 2020, this represented growth of 68.2%. In Asia, 17% of the group, we grew 29%. In Greater China, 8% of the group, We grew 21. Mainland China was up 34% and we exited in September strongly, up 45% on 2019. Hong Kong, where conditions remain more challenging, Was up 1% for the quarter, a significant improvement on the decline of 16% in Q2 and return to growth in September, Southeast Asia delivered a record quarter and was up 29% with Singapore up 15% and the remaining countries in the region up 41% collectively. Japan was up 36%, delivering a record quarter and a significant improvement on the already strong growth 17% in Q2, exiting in September, up 56%. India, where we have around 200 people, despite being significantly impacted by the pandemic, Also delivered a record quarter, growing 72% and exited the quarter in September, up over 100% on 2019. Australia continues to be impacted by state lockdowns and declined 3% for the quarter, Although we saw an improvement in September exiting BUG 7. The Americas representing 17% of the group has been one of the worst affected regions by COVID, but despite this Was our strongest performing region. Gross profit in Q3 was up 24.6% on 2019, A record quarter and a significant improvement on the growth of 7.7% in Q2. This represented growth of 113.4% on 2020. The U. S. Delivered a record quarter and grew 28% with a material improvement in September, which was up 61% on 2019. In Latin America, gross profit grew 22%, A record quarter, up from the growth of 11% in Q2. Mexico was up 18%, a record quarter and exited September strongly, up 38. Brazil was up 27% for the quarter and exited in September, up 36. Elsewhere in Latin America, the remaining countries were up 23% collectively for the quarter. In the UK, representing 15% of the group, gross profit grew 1.3%, Significant improvement from the decline of 9% in Q2. Against 2020, this represented growth of 94.3%. Conditions improved as the quarter progressed, and we exited the quarter up 15% in September. Our Michael Page business was more resilient, up 6% in the quarter compared to a decline of 13 in Page personnel. Performance was stronger in our regional offices outside of London. I'm pleased to report that the improvement in results we saw in Q2 continued into Q3, with the group reporting growth of 65.4% versus 2020 12.9% versus 2019. We exited the quarter strongly with September up 26% on 2019 compared with July August up 4% And 9% respectively. This noticeable improvement in record performance in Q3 was seen throughout the group With 12 countries delivering record quarters and was achieved despite the backdrop of continuing restrictions and lockdowns in many of our markets. We believe our strategy of maintaining and investing in our platform throughout the pandemic is helping us to achieve these results. Our investments include hiring around 1,000 experienced fee owners since July 2020. Rolling out new technologies globally such as Customer Connect, our new sales force based CRM system. New innovations such as our Page Insights data intelligence tool, As well as diversity and inclusion and strategic engagement tools to ensure our culture resonates and is attractive to our people and potential new employees. Reflecting the continued improvement in trading conditions in Q3, We added a net 329 fee earners in the quarter, making a net 627 this year. We've added around 600 experienced hires so far in 2021, which complements the around 400 experienced hires we added in the second half 2020. Our Fiona headcount is currently down just 4% on the pre pandemic level at the end of 2019. We're the clear leader in many of our markets with a highly experienced senior management team, which we retained in 2020, and we believe positions us well to take advantage of opportunities to grow and improve our business. We have maintained our focus on driving progress towards our long term strategic goals. Looking ahead, There continues to be a high degree of global macroeconomic uncertainty as COVID-nineteen remains a significant issue And restrictions remain in a number of the group's markets. Additionally, there is further uncertainty regarding the pace of clients' offices reopening, Challenges in global supply chains and the inflation outlook. However, the strength of our performance in Q3 and noticeably In September, notably, has further increased our confidence in the outlook for the year. And therefore, we now expect full year operating profit To be in the region of £155,000,000. Kelvin and I will now be happy to take any questions you may have. Thank you. Our first question comes from James Rose at Barclays. Please go ahead. Hi, good morning. I've got 3, please. The first is on the really strong growth rate you've seen in September. What do you think explains that? Is there any particular Work or specialism, what's your view on what explains it? And do you think it's sustainable for going into the Q4? And second is on supply chain shortages and the manufacturing disruptions and how has that impacted the group? And then thirdly, are there any differences between the temp side and the perm side, which particularly stand out to you? Thanks. Okay. Well, the sustainable one is a difficult question to answer, isn't it? Because Clearly, I'd have to predict various economic factors, and that's quite challenging. But at the moment, it feels like it's certainly sustainable in the short to medium term as our forward looking KPIs are still remain positive as we go into the Q4. How do I explain September? Well, I mean, obviously, we think we've invested well, and I've just said that in hiring a lot of experienced people, which we took advantage of literally from July of 2020. And I think that probably was looking back a smart move. What's happening is that a lot of candidates are definitely reflected on their organizations, the culture Other organizations they're working for, how their organizations reacted to COVID? Did they keep in touch? Didn't they? Did they make them feel Secure, insecure, are they doing the right strategic things? Are they do they have the right approach to Diversity and inclusion, CSR, ESG, etcetera. And if they didn't, then they're doing something about it. And So there are a large number of candidates on the move, and there is high demand from clients as they recover from the pandemic. And so there's a huge supply and demand, which benefits us. And why in Of course, we'd love to think we're taking market share from the obvious competitors, Some of which I'm sure are doing well as well, but the main competitor we are definitely taking market share from are the clients themselves. So clients and their resourcing departments, talent acquisition, whatever they call it, are definitely our biggest competitor. And they are struggling to hire people. And as yet, I've struggled to come across a company either in or outside of work that hasn't told me they've got staffing issues at the moment and that they're struggling to fill jobs. And so that is Playing to our strengths. While they're focused on doing whatever they do, we're focused on making sure that we can Fine necessary candidates to fill roles, and we're largely better than our clients are doing it. And so we're successfully filling jobs they can't. That helps as well because we are seeing some wage inflation where There are particular hot points of candidate shortages, so that we're definitely seeing a bigger gap between the salary that the candidate comes to us With the salary that they're offered by a client, so that bigger gap obviously Since we bill on the salary offered, obviously, and all the one that's expected, and so that's benefiting us. And we're starting in some places to see as well a bit of fee inflation. In other words, we will harden, You could imagine during 2020 when clients, no doubt, were negotiating with us, they were probably tougher than they can afford to be today with candidate shortages. So all of those things, I suppose, explain September, why does September look so remarkable against The other 2 months in the quarter, well, I'd largely put that down to the summer. And September is notoriously one of our biggest months The year, it really follows June, and it's always a competition most years as to whether March, June or September will be the biggest. And that's To do with a lot of holidays and all sorts of things around what we've got, which is a very global business. So yes, it looks good going into Q4 and KPIs support it being reasonably sustainable. Regarding the supply chain, again, that tends to create more demand for candidates. As yet, I mean, what we're seeing is certainly some issues in the heavy manufacturing engineering fields. I was talking to the leader in our German business, and they can see that some of The bigger, heavier industries are definitely seeing some issues with supply chain, and therefore, Those businesses are struggling to perform in the level they would want to. And certainly, if you're going to order a new car right now, then be prepared for a wait, because you probably won't get a supply for at least 6 months. So that must be impacting their demand. Fortunately for us in Germany, we're very much Technology driven and certainly also we have a specialist business or businesses that do Logistics and supply chain, and at the moment, those businesses are thriving, as you can imagine. Temp versus perm, I think in the largest temp businesses that we've got, which would be France and the UK, yes, our temp Businesses are not performing. Our lower end chem businesses are not performing like our perm businesses, and they reflect where Offices are open or not open. The more people get back to the office, the more clients are likely to hire Junior Thames, this is in contrary to how we're performing at the high end for contractors or temps depending on the terminology in different markets because at the High end, particularly in technology, actually, we're doing very well. And it wouldn't match or even in some cases outstrip our performance in perm. At low end, particularly in the large business we have in France and the UK, whilst growing and starting to pick up Because more and more clients offices are opening, they are still substantial. While you can see in the numbers that I've just given you, they're still Comfortably behind the perm businesses. That's great. Thanks very much. Cheers. The next question is from Hans Ploegers at Kepler. Please go ahead. Yes. Good morning, gentlemen. A few questions from my side. First of all, on coming back on wage inflation, you already mentioned, If you could give maybe some more flavor on which areas you're really seeing it and in which regions? And Secondly, two questions on productivity and fee earners increased. You've I had quite somewhat more experienced persons. So what's your strategy going forward there? Are you still, let's say, focused mainly in the Hiring in the coming quarters for more experienced personnel, you could give maybe some guidance on what you expect for Q4 4% to higher. And secondly, on that, on productivity, yes, 20% Increase in productivity compared to Q so compared to 2019, do you believe that's sustainable Net level from all the investments you have been doing? Or let's say, do you expect that, that may be gain with a little bit level off? Or maybe there's still some additional Ben, if you can see, could you give maybe some indication on that? Thank you. Well, wage inflation, really it reflects where we're performing highest. I mean you can imagine that We're seeing wage inflation. 1st of all, the way we measure it is what a candidate who comes to us looking for a job is currently earning and what they get offered So that isn't, I don't think what really economists would call wage inflation. We can't really measure that because clearly there are a lot of people that aren't looking for jobs at the moment. We don't see their salaries change. We can't measure that. What we're seeing is a bigger gap and wherever you see us growing strongest, you can assume that the wage inflation is greatest. So I'm sure I haven't spoken recently some about this specific subject. I'm sure in India where we're growing at 100% versus 2019, there's a bigger gap between what a candidate is earning when it comes to us and what the candidate gets offered by a client. I can tell you that certainly in the field of technology, which is our 2nd biggest specialism outside of accounting, We are seeing, particularly in that area, in digital, any specific jobs that are really Hard to find the candidates, we're seeing that bigger gap. And we're certainly seeing candidates getting more than one offer, which we hope that both offers or more through us. But typically then a client may be forced into a Position of offering a bit more as well to attract them and tempt them. And we're also seeing what we call buyback, which is where a client who So regret somebody resigning then desperately tries to keep them and pushes their salary up. And then obviously, the client Who's offering them a job has an opportunity to offer a hire, that's sometimes happening as well. So these things cause That wage inflation, which of course we like. On productivity, is it sustainable? Yes, I think amongst the people, The existing people, it definitely is. I mean, for example, the 600 experienced hires That we've taken on this year, they won't be fully productive yet. Clearly, the 200,000,000 we've just taken in the Q3 won't be. And so there's still room we believe for that productivity to continue. The attrition rate and We do intend, really for everyone, not just you, Hans, but we do intend to do a So strategic update to the markets later in the year, we haven't organized Specific date, but it could well be early December where we'll go into this in a bit more depth, but and many other things in terms of our strategic moves and so on. But there is certainly a gap What those experienced people could be offering in productivity and are currently. So with the existing people, yes, we do believe it's However, for us to continue to grow and we're obviously going to look at October, November December, But if growth rates continue, then we are going to have to hire more heads in. And this really plays into the second part of your question is, Will you continue to hire experienced people? Yes, of course, we will, if we can find them. And going back to India again, where we saw extreme growth, we don't really have much competition, which is nice in an economy the size of India, but it does mean that we are restricted in the number of people we can find now with Competitors that haven't already joined us. In addition to that, not only they're more difficult to find, Clearly, the recruitment market is improving. And therefore, those that are working for competitors and have experience We'll be doing a lot better. So the chances are if they're doing a lot better, they own a pipeline of either temps, contractors or perm placement And that pipeline is now delivering them bonuses or commissions if they're any competitors and therefore they're going to be more difficult to attract. So you can assume, and you've seen that in the Q3, the proportion of experienced people is coming down slightly. And I think it will continue to do so. So that's something that will dilute the productivity when you look at the total headcount, But with an improving market, productivity also goes up. So if we continue to improve, And I can't predict that, but if we do continue to improve and we have improved by roughly speaking 12% Growth upon 2019 each quarter of this year. And if we continue to improve, then obviously productivity will continue to go up. I hope that answers your question, Tami. Yes, that's indeed. One last question on that one. Could you give us some indication on your hiring plans for Q4? Sure. Sorry, you did say. So what you see is a fairly seen so far this year is a fairly typical pattern. What happens is in the first half of the year, we largely are reflecting on what's happening in terms of performance. We I've hired quite aggressively in the second half of last year. So we react to that and Those people and hopefully they get productive in the first half of the year. We take a view on the second half and how we're performing. Is it improving? Is it not? It It's definitely improving. We clearly, in large parts of our market, are less successful hiring people in July August. And then September tends to be a big intake, particularly as we start thinking about getting towards the end of the year and Perring for next year, we have to have the firepower to react to the market conditions we're hoping for next year. Clearly, with things improving, you'd expect us to make sure we're prepared for Q1, Q2 of next year By making sure we've got that firepower and therefore bringing on less OEC owners, so you can assume With the growth that we've just seen in September, our hiring will increase over Q3, not Significantly, because it's difficult to find candidates. So don't assume it's totally easy. We are a recruitment company, so I think we'll find them. But We will hire more fee earners into the business than Q3, but not dramatically. Okay. Thanks. Our next question is from Carl Green at RBC. Please go ahead. Yes. Thanks very much. Just a couple of questions. One of mine has been largely answered. Just in terms of where you're seeing your own pricing power increase The most. I'm not necessarily expecting you to quantify it, but can you indicate how that feels versus previous cycles in terms of The extent to which you're pushing up your own fee rates. And then the second question, it might be a little bit early, but just in terms of the expanding Energy crises in Asia and Europe, are you seeing any glimmers of opportunities or indeed threats to your business as we see that evolving? Thanks. I'll answer the first one. I'll leave the second one to Kelvin. He's far cleverer than me. So in terms of pricing power, look, it is again, it comes to wherever the hot Spots exist and also where we are spot pricing. So what I mean by that is that clearly we have Some arrangements with clients either because it's large projects or large campaigns or even RPO, The fee rates are fixed. So there's little we can do about that just because we're busier. But where we're spot pricing, which is where a client It gives us 1 or 2 or 5 or 10 vacancies for the first time or for a while, Then we're obviously now negotiating with them what the rate would be, and we will always look at the demand for those candidates. So If it's easy to find a candidate and there's no one else that wants them, then clearly, we're unlikely to be able to insist But we have high fee rates, whereas if we know the demand is very high and there's a lot of companies out there for the same candidate, Then we can say this is our fee rate. If you're not comfortable with it, if you're going to try and negotiate to Stanley considerably, Well, then we're just not going to work with you. We'll work with those that will. And we do that in sort of non arrogant way, which is obviously difficult, but It is about supply and demand. And so we are definitely starting to see our fee rates harden. We always say in response to previous cycles that roughly speaking, our fee rates So up or down by about 10%. Well, I don't mean 10 percentage points of the salary we charge on, but actually 10% of the fee rate. So if the fee rate was, Let's say 20% is roughly in the UK, then it could go down to 18% in a crisis, And it typically goes very quickly back up to 2020. The interesting thing, I think, when you look over 35 years as I obviously can. I mean, our fee rate back 35 years ago, any technology or innovations Was slightly lower than it is today. The answer to that is mix. So we charge very different fee rates in different geographies ranging from mid teens In our lowest market, which would probably be somewhere in Southern Europe through to 30% in Japan. So clearly, if certain businesses with higher fee rates like Germany and the U. S. Are becoming a bigger proportion of the group, Then that can also impact where we're averaging on a fee rate. So again, maybe in our strategy update Later in the year, we can go into that in a bit more depth and give you actual numbers, but to show where we're at in that But we're seeing them harden and it's typically in the geographies we're doing particularly well and in the disciplines we're doing particularly well. Kelvin, you have time to prepare. Yes, sure. I mean, with regard to the short Term energy crisis we're seeing today, I think the short answer is no, we're not seeing any material change to any of the activities we've got going on. However, if I sort of look at that question as slightly more of a medium term question, Certainly, the move into electrical energy, into renewables is something that we are seeing Come out as sort of niche recruitment factors. And you could sort of extend that back out into the overall discussion around ESG. And we've got a small business in ESG recruitment. We're building that out now and running it as a global discipline. And Within that, the environmental part of it and certainly the renewable energy space is an area that is very So the specific skills that are short in supply and therefore is something that is pretty attractive to the specialized recruitment area that we deal in. So I think there's opportunity there coming down the track. I think there An ability to leverage our scale and our ability to find candidates, I believe, that may go into some of these hard to find roles. But Very specifically on the short term energy crisis, no, I don't think that's having any material impact. Okay. Thanks very much. Just one question for me and sort of slightly longer term. But if we sort of look at the cycle, clearly, perm has It's proven to be a lot stronger than certainly I would have expected at the beginning of the cycle. And then this is against the backdrop of this labor market Shortages, wage inflation, is there a feeling like the next sort of Cycle turns out to be similar to this, what you've seen over the last 6 months in terms of like the pump can be a lot stronger if we are in this structurally labor short market. And then sort of what are the signs you would see to sort of confirm that going forward probably? Wow, tricky question, I think, and probably not one I can so I can't give you the answer because There are so many things that can clearly impact the answer from inflationary increases to All sorts of other different challenges, political or whatever around the world. Look, if this is the start of a longer cycle, of course, As a perm business, our revenues would go up faster than 10 competitors because Clearly, we bill on an entire year. The way that we bill is that we bill a percentage of the year's salary, whereas With temps, it's based on a week or a month that the Tempur contract to work. So naturally, We would continue to increase faster. I don't know, RISD. So I don't know what economic factors These are going to influence this cycle. What I can tell you is that we have a track record In many years and in fact in the 1st few years of my tenure as CEO and also in back Prior to that, I remember, where we grew every year 30% and for a number of years. Can we grow that rate again? Who knows? I mean, there's just too many factors that can incur. But what I would say is this. We invested we highlighted a strategic move to focus our investments into high potential markets in 2010. At the time, they represented about 10% of the group. Today, They represent 40% of the group. When I look back in 2010, our 3rd, 4th, 5th, Etcetera, largest markets outside of the UK and France were Holland, Spain, Italy and Australia. Today, our 3rd biggest market is Germany. Our 4th biggest market is the U. S. Our 6th biggest market is China. And coming up on the outside, our markets like Japan and India, and when I last looked, they're pretty big economies as well. So To me, we've positioned ourselves well. In disciplined terms, we've also been focused since 2010 where we were very focused on financial services as well as accounting. Today, our 2nd largest Specialism is technology, and that's growing the fastest of all of our specialisms, which is great to see and I believe that we have a huge future in that market. And then finally, back in 2010, we did very little in the area of contracting. And that's been a big investment in Germany, where we've Clearly, just put some pretty impressive results in. In Latin America, where it's one of the fastest growing contracting markets And fastest growing parts of our business in Latin America and in China and wherever else we can do contracts. And we're not able So the investments that we've made, we believe position us well to whatever length of time this cycle gives us And however impressive the cycle is in terms of growth because of cumulative shortages. So I've I told you why I think we're well positioned, but I haven't told you the prediction for the future, but then I'm not that far. No, but this is more of a question like if you see this wage inflation and sort of supply chain shortages, labor shortages Becoming more structural than you would imagine sort of it favors perm more than temp. Is that like would be a wrong Just to have just based on what you've seen so far, really, not anything you do predict. No, no. The really short demand It's definitely in specialist roles. A lot of those specialist roles are permanent. So yes, the answer is yes. Okay. Thank you. At this point, there are no further questions on the call. So I will hand back to the PageGroup team to wrap up. Thank you, and thank you for the questions. As there are no further questions, thank you All for joining us at this short notice this morning. Our next update to the market will be our 4th quarter trading update on the 12th January This concludes today's conference call. Thank you very much for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.