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Earnings Call: Q2 2023

Aug 10, 2023

Moderator

Dear ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining our second quarter and first half 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. I'm Anna Romelashvili, Head of Investor Relations at TBC Bank Group. The presenters today are Vakhtang Butskhrikidze, CEO of the Group, and Giorgi Megrelishvili, the CFO. We will start today's call with a short presentation and provide an update about our financial and business performance. We will also briefly discuss the recent macroeconomic developments in the country. After the presentation, you'll have an opportunity to ask questions. Now, I would like to hand over to Vakhtang.

Vakhtang Butskhrikidze
CEO, TBC Bank Group

Thank you, Ana. Dear all, thank you for joining our Second Quarter Financial Results Conference Call. I'm pleased to say that the second quarter continued the very strong growth, making it a very successful first half of the year. Our top-line revenue growth is close to 30% year-on-year. We have added well over 1 million digital monthly active users over the past year. We have closed first half of the year with almost 27% return of equity. While we are pleased with this progress we are making on a number of fronts, we believe it is important to keep pushing ourselves to achieve more as we both grow our customer base and help our customers transact more, both in Georgia and Uzbekistan. As such, we have revised and updated our medium-term guidance, the details of which you can find on the slide 8, 28.

We are confident as we grow our digital customer base to above 7 million over the next two-three years. This will continue to drive strong bottom-line growth for our group as a whole, and we target to achieve at least 15% earnings average annual growth and more than GEL 1.5 billion net income by 2025, with return of equity consistently above 23%. The digital initiatives that we are undertaking in Georgia include the only comprehensive lifestyle ecosystem in the country, and we target at least GEL 500 million GMV by 2025. We also feel the time is right to provide some more detailed guidance on our fintech business in Uzbekistan. Given the excellent progress we have been making there over the past one-two years and following our buyout of Payme minority in the second quarter.

We continue to target over 5 million digital monthly active users, and we expect to see our very strong loan growth continuing as we leverage on the credit opportunities within our large payment consumer base, and we guide at least 80% loan average annual growth in 2023-2025. Finally, we aim to generate at least GEL 200 million net profit in Uzbekistan by 2025. We remain committed to combining profitable growth with returning capital to shareholders as appropriate, while continuing to invest in growth. Therefore, we are maintaining our dividend payout range at 25%-35%. This is ambitious set of targets, but I personally feel confident that our excellent team at TBC can meet and hopefully beat these targets. I'd also like to draw your attention to our improved disclosure in our financial statements.

We now provide full profit and loss and balance sheet split by our Georgian Financial Services, Uzbekistan, and other businesses. We hope this will help investors and analysts to better model the key pillars of our businesses. I'd like to turn to discussing our results in more details from the slide three, which summarize the group's position across our three core strategic pillars for the first half of this year. We remain the leading financial institution in Georgia, generating excellent profitability with a return of equity of 25.7% for our Georgian financial operations and serving 1.6 million monthly active customers. Our fintech platforms in Uzbekistan continues to grow both rapidly and profitably, contributing 5% into the group's net profit, with 3.5 million monthly active customers.

In Georgia, the Tnet digital ecosystem that we have built continues to make good progress, with a strong annualized GMV for the first half of 2023 to around GEL 170 million . The next slide presents our key takeaways for the second quarter. In the second quarter, the group generated a return of equity of 28.1%, while our CET1 ratio remained very strong at 18.3%, which is 3.9 percentage point above the minimum regulatory requirements. As a result of our high profitability and capital generation, the board has decided to declare an interim dividend of GEL 2.55 per share to be payable in October. At the same time, our Georgian operations demonstrated good growth, with loans and deposits increasing by 14% and 26%, respectively. Our Uzbek fintechs also continued strong profitable growth.

Our Uzbek loan book almost tripled year-on-year, reaching almost GEL 530 million, while our net profit amounted to GEL 13 million, with a return of equity of 22%. Our digital user base also increased at a solid pace across the group, with digital monthly active users reaching 4.3 million, up by 43% year-on-year. Moving on the next slide, I'd like to briefly go over our financial performance in the second quarter. Our net profit grew by 25% year-on-year, reaching almost GEL 300 million, which is more than $100 million, while our return on equity is to the 28.1%, as I have already mentioned. Over the same period, our total gross loans, including Uzbek business, grew by 16% year-on-year.

At the same time, our cost-to-income ratio decreased to 34.7%, highlighting that we remain focused on efficient growth. On the next slide, I'd like to provide you with a brief update on the main recent macro developments in Georgia. The Georgian economy continues to perform very strongly. In the second quarter, real GDP growth was 7.4%, while FX inflows increased, increased by 30% year-on-year and remained well diversified in the terms of geography. Public debt to GDP remains low, falling to 40%, while central bank reserves reached a record high of over $5 billion. Inflation continued to decrease during the quarter, falling to just 0.3% in July.

This falling price trend enabled the National Bank of Georgia to cut the refinance rate by 0.5 percentage points in May from 11%, and by further 0.25 % points in August to 10.25%. We anticipate further rate cuts in the second half of the year. The next slide shows a few more details regarding Georgia's solid economic fundamentals. Following two consecutive years of the double-digit expansion, the Georgian economy maintained strong momentum in the first half of this year, with 7.6% growth. In combination with the strong performance in the, of the Georgian lari, this means that in dollar terms, the Georgian economy has expanded from around $8 billion in the first half of 2019 to almost $14 billion in the first half of this year.

In terms of trade inflows, the chart on the right highlights the, that the, they remain well diversified, with the highest share of coming from the EU. It is also worth pointing out that the share of Russia has remained stable since 2019, at around 17%. Slide eight provides some more color on Georgia's rapidly falling inflation and its fiscal and monetary buffers. Inflation is well on track to come below the National Bank of Georgia's targeted level of 3% for this year. A common question we receive is how Georgian inflation has fallen so sharply, so quickly. The main driver of this is cheaper imported goods, due to the appreciation of the Georgian Lari and relatively lower international commodity prices, while domestic inflation remains elevated.

Given this driver, we expect the central bank to maintain the cautious approach towards cutting interest rates, with only around 0.75 % points rate further cuts this year to 9.5%. Let's move to the next slide, which shows our customer base and digital engagement. The group's retail monthly active users grew by 38% year-on-year and stood at 5.1 million, helped to a large degree by our fully digital Uzbek fintech operations. As for the digital customers, both daily active users and monthly active users grew by around 40% year-on-year. The daily active users to monthly active users ratios to the 33% at group's level and 45% in Georgia. Moving on to slide 11, I think the main takeaway from here is that we are still seeing very nice growth in Georgia.

At the end of June, our loan book in Georgia had increased by 14% year-on-year on a constant currency basis, we are particularly pleased with the 18% year-on-year growth we saw in MSME segment, as small companies are important driver and beneficiary of the strong economic environment. The next slide highlights the strong growth of our payment business in Georgia, I am pleased to report we have made some improvements in our disclosure here to better highlight the important role payments has within our business. The chart on the left shows net revenues from payments in Georgia, as you can see, this increased by around 40% year-on-year, reaching GEL 71 million. On the right-hand chart, we now break down the revenue by payment categories, with about half coming from the card operations, while the rest is spread across other categories.

I also want to highlight an important point, that our Georgian payment business represents almost 70% of our net fee and commission income, while together with our Uzbek payment business, it reaches 85%. Moreover, we have almost 1 million monthly active cardholders and more than 30,000 active merchant POS terminals in Georgia. Given that, we have about 1.5 million retail customers in Georgia. We are excited about the further strong opportunity to lead the switch from the cash economy to digital payments in Georgia. On the slide 17, you can see the composition of our largest digital ecosystem in Georgia, Tnet, which has a leading position in four major verticals: lifestyle, housing, e-commerce, and auto... The next slide gives a bit more detail on some of the main metrics of our digital ecosystem.

The second quarter was an excellent quarter for the platform, as GMV increased by almost 90% year-on-year and over 75% quarter-on-quarter, reaching a record GEL 53 million , with gross profit to GMV at 2%. The primary driver of this growth was our ticketing platform, helped by strong sales of tickets for several popular concerts and sport events. Now, I'd like to turn our, your attention to our fast-growing operations in Uzbekistan. As you know, we operate two digital fintech companies in Uzbekistan, a mobile-only consumer bank and digital payments application for both businesses and individuals. I'd also like to reiterate an important development we had in the second quarter with the purchase in May of the remaining 49% stake in Payme, taking our ownership to 100%.

This will enable us to step up integration of our two platforms in Uzbekistan and better exploit the many potential synergies. Slide 16 focuses on the performance of our payment subsidiary, PayMe, the leading digital payment provider in Uzbekistan. As you can see in the top left chart, at the end of the second quarter, the number of registered customers was almost 10 million, which is around one third of the Uzbek population. Out of this 10 million, almost 3 million are monthly active users and 1 million are daily active customers. One of key aims in the coming quarters is to successfully activate more users amongst our substantial customer base. In terms of financials, PayMe's revenue and net profit grew by 40% and 45% year-on-year, respectively, as payment volumes increased by more than 40%.

Finally, on the slide 17, let's turn to TBC Uzbank, which continues its fast and now profitable growth. The net number of registered customers grew by 60% year-on-year, reaching 3 million, while monthly active users doubled and stood at 600,000. Over the same period, TBC Uzbank continued to grow at a rapid pace, with deposits portfolio almost doubling year-on-year, and retail loan book increased by almost 3 times. The revenues grow more than 4 x year-on-year to GEL 31 million, and having turned profitable in the 1st quarter of this year. Net income improved further in the second quarter, reaching GEL 2.2 million. With that, I'd like now to hand over to Giorgi.

Giorgi Megrelishvili
CFO, TBC Bank Group

Thank you, Vakhtang, thank you all for being with us today. I would like to take this opportunity to dive deeper into our financial performance, and I will start from slide 19. As you can see, we have continued to deliver a very strong financial performance in Q2 2023. Our net profit is up by 25% year-on-year, reaching almost GEL 300 million in Q2, and is up by 20% to about GEL 550 million in the first half. This achievement has been driven by a combination of strong net income across all lines and healthy asset quality. This has translated into a very decent 28.1% return on equity in Q2, and 26.7% in the first half. Now, I will move to slide 20, where I will go into more details for the main drivers.

In Q2, both our net interest and non-interest income continued to display strong year-on-year growth dynamics, with total revenues up by 26% for Q2 and 28% for the first half. Net interest income was up by an excellent 32% year-on-year, helped by very nice margins, as I will discuss in a moment. Meanwhile, non-interest income grew by 17% year-on-year for the second quarter, driven by another quarter of 40% growth in our net fee and commission income, which, as discussed earlier, was primarily led by our payments business, which we are very pleased to report. I would also like to highlight that our Uzbek operations contributed almost GEL 19 million, or around 18% of our total net fee and commission income in the second quarter. let's move to our margin dynamics, which may be even actually surprising for us positively.

NIM increased by 1 % point year-on-year and 40 basis points quarter-on-quarter, reaching 6.8%. This means NIM was up by 90 basis points in H1. The growth in the second quarter was mainly driven by higher loan yields and effective balance sheet management, while TBC UZ contributed 25 basis points, which is very highly promising to see. Much as we would like to see NIM be staying at this Q2 level, we think probably that makes the peak of the cycle. We do expect NIM to stay above 6.5% during the second half of the year, at least, so remaining at a very healthy level. I will turn to the cost slide.

We continue to closely monitor our costs and have worked hard to keep their growth more or less in line with the business, rising by 24% compared to Q2 last year. What I think important to convey here is that our spending in the business are paying back rewards in terms of revenue growth, which continues at a faster rate, resulting in 0.6 % points year-on-year decrease in our cost-to-income ratio of 34.7%. I would also like to highlight that the cost-to-income ratio for our Georgian financial services stood at very decent 30.2% for the second quarter. Now moving on to slide 23, which highlights our healthy asset quality. Our NPL ratio decreased year-on-year across all segments and stood at 2.1% at the quarter end.

At the same time, total coverage was 154%, while provision coverage stood at 89%. As for cost of risk, the positive performance in Q2 of just 0.6% was mainly driven by better actual and estimated macro parameters in Georgia, which also was translated into the strong performance of the loan book. As you can see, as of H1, our cost of risk was just 90 basis points, and barring any major economic shocks, we would expect to be in the range of 90-100 basis points for Georgia. Now, on the following slide, slide 24, I would like to share with you the performance of our core balance sheet portfolios.

The loan book for the group was 16% year on year, as we already mentioned, while Georgian growth was 14% on a constant currency basis, and 4% quarter on quarter in Q2, spread across all Georgian sub-segments. Over the same period, the customer funding grew by 26% without a FX effect and 9% quarter on quarter, mainly driven by CIB and retail sub-segments. Now moving on to slide 25, where you can see our solid capital position. We continue to build capital in Q2 2023, and as you can see, all our capital ratios remain at very prudent levels as of June 2023, well above the minimum regulatory requirements for all tiers.

In Q2, our CET1 ratio is 18.3%, up by 0.6 % points quarter-on-quarter, and it is 3.9 % points above the minimum regulatory requirements. I also would like to highlight a positive outcome of this robust capital position and, of course, our stronger performance. As it was already mentioned, in October, we will pay an interim dividend of GEL 2.55 per share. This will be seen in our capital ratios in Q3 2023, and it will have around 100 basis points impact. Finally, on slide 26, I will highlight the financial performance of our Uzbek business. I would like to once again reiterate that our Uzbek operations continue delivering excellent growth, but most importantly, also very profitable growth. Loans and deposits rose 29% and 22% quarter-on-quarter, respectively.

While we generated 13 million Lari net income in Q2, resulting in 22.1% return on equity. In terms of financial measures of TBC Uzbekistan, NIMs stood at 20.1% for Q2, while cost of risk was 6.6%. I'm also pleased to highlight that the contribution of Uzbek business in the group is now tangible. In Q2, it's delivered 4% share in group net profit, 25 basis points to NIM, 18% to group fee and commission income, and almost 20% of total group loan growth over the past year. Thank you, and I would like to hand back to Vakhtang for some final remarks. Vakhtang, please.

Vakhtang Butskhrikidze
CEO, TBC Bank Group

Yeah, thank you. Now I'd like to wrap up today's presentation by reiterating that while we are very pleased with the consistently strong results that we have been delivering for many years now, we continue to strive to improve the services we offer to our many retail and corporate customers across Georgia and Uzbekistan. We have tried to reflect our ambitions in the updated targets for 2025 that I outlined earlier, and I look forward to updating investors and analysts on our progress in the coming quarter. With that, I'd like to invite you to ask the questions.

Moderator

Thank you, Vakhtang. Now, I would like to open the floor for the Q&A. Just as a reminder, if you are using the Zoom application, please raise your hand function at the bottom of the screen. If you are dialing in from the phone, please press star nine to raise your hand. I will unmute the participants in the chronological order and invite to ask questions. Please introduce yourself before asking a question. The first question comes from Robert Sage.

Robert Sage
Research Analyst, Peel Hunt

Yes, thank you, Anna. Can you hear me okay?

Moderator

We do.

Robert Sage
Research Analyst, Peel Hunt

Thank you. I've got two questions, if I may. The first question concerns your excellent net interest margin performance, and I was wondering whether you could flesh out a little bit, in a little bit more detail, in terms of what exactly drove, in particular, the yield higher in the second quarter of the year. I'm also quite conscious that Georgie mentioned that likely that was the peak margin, and we should expect probably something slightly lower in the second half of the year. I was wondering whether you could give more detail in terms of why exactly you are expecting that fall. Is it connected with lower refinancing rates in Georgia?

My second question, entirely unrelated, is that, I see you've managed to produce an improved cost-to-income ratio performance in the 2nd quarter of the year, and I was wondering, when we're looking ahead to the full year outlook, whether you think you will be able to produce positive jaws for the full year as a whole?

Vakhtang Butskhrikidze
CEO, TBC Bank Group

Yeah, I think Giorgi will answer both questions.

Giorgi Megrelishvili
CFO, TBC Bank Group

Thank you very much. On the NIM, actually, for loan, it was a tail that kind of helped us, because sort of those floating loans refinanced at the end, that was the key driver. For the outlook, as I mentioned. Yes, exactly. Refinance is one of the driver, also benchmark rates probably may go down. As I mentioned, we do expect to stay above 6.5%, that probably higher than any consensus number was. Therefore, we will stay, again, above that. Cost-to-income ratio, we do continue to invest into our business. We see results, but it will be very difficult to actually improve cost because for the full year, because as you remember, last year in Q2, we had material one-off from a fixed income. Therefore, it was like at a very low point.

As we know, like we usually target, like in the middle of 30%, like around 35%, and we are comfortable to be within this range.

Robert Sage
Research Analyst, Peel Hunt

Very savvy. Thank you very much. Very competent as well.

Moderator

Thank you. Now, the next question comes from Joe Molander.

The old, the old chap. Yeah, he's just, just stepped out.

Joe Molander
Journalist, The Courier

Hello, can you hear me?

Moderator

Yes, we can.

Giorgi Megrelishvili
CFO, TBC Bank Group

Yes.

Moderator

Oh, sorry.

He's a petroleum engineer by background, so he's an operations guy. He's very hands-on. You know, as an individual, he's, he's very pragmatic. He, you know, isn't an, an overpromoter.

You are on mute, Joe.

Joe Molander
Journalist, The Courier

I do apologize. Can you hear me now?

Yes.

There we go. In March, your IR director, Andrew.

Giorgi Megrelishvili
CFO, TBC Bank Group

Can you, can you put the Robert off, Anna, because it's noise is coming?

Moderator

Yeah.

Giorgi Megrelishvili
CFO, TBC Bank Group

Okay, thank you.

Joe Molander
Journalist, The Courier

There we go. In March, your IR director, Andrew Keeley, indicated that the bank would remain active on international debt capital markets ahead of the 2024 bond maturity. With that in mind, is TBC Bank planning to refinance the 2024 maturity with another bond? Any color on that and the timing of any potential issuance would be great. Thank you.

Giorgi Megrelishvili
CFO, TBC Bank Group

Thank you very much. Again, we have sufficient liquidity position, but we would like to remain on the capital markets. Maturity is in June, like next year, and we will act according to the market, let's say, conditions, whatever situation will be at that point. Generally, as I mentioned, we would like to remain on capital markets.

Joe Molander
Journalist, The Courier

Brilliant. refinancing would be the preferred strategy then?

Giorgi Megrelishvili
CFO, TBC Bank Group

Let's, let's see. Probably that would be, but it depends on kind of many parameters.

Joe Molander
Journalist, The Courier

Brilliant. Thank you very much.

Moderator

Thank you. The next question comes from Rahim Karim.

Rahim Karim
Head of Financial Research, Cavendish Capital Markets

Can you all hear me?

Moderator

Yes.

Giorgi Megrelishvili
CFO, TBC Bank Group

Yes. Hi, Rahim.

Rahim Karim
Head of Financial Research, Cavendish Capital Markets

firstly, congratulations on, on another, very strong set of, of numbers. Just wanted to understand, a little bit about your thoughts around the next steps in Uzbekistan, given the Payme minority acquisition, and how, how you move that, business, forward, and, and, and, and more broadly, within the context of the operations in country. So any thoughts that you would be able to share there, that that would be helpful. And then just on, on the guidance that you've provided, for Uzbekistan, obviously moved to a, a point target for, for profitability versus what had historically been, some, some, some potential ambitions around return on, a return on equity. Just was trying to, understand the, the move behind that.

Was that just to, to really demonstrate the quantum of the, the upside that was coming through from here, or? Therefore, we should still expect, you know, return on equities to be above 30% in that business? Or is there a mix shift happening given the, the, the, the growth of potential of the non-balance sheet lending?

Vakhtang Butskhrikidze
CEO, TBC Bank Group

Yeah. Thank you for this question. I will begin answering this question. Georgie will add something. For us, it was very important to make the acquisition and to buy out this 49% minority shareholders in the Payme. As we have already mentioned in our presentation, we have up to 10 million registered customers in Payme, monthly users, more than 3 million, and daily users in Payme, only 1 million. As we already gave this information to the investors, there's a huge synergies in the bank, in the Payme, to use this number of the customers. First of all, to activate registered customers in Payme, and secondly, these activate customers to use as a potentially to give the loans through Payme, to give the loans and use this platform to increase the portfolio.

As now, we see on this slide, we have very ambitious targets for the growth and long growth. Annual growth, we are targeting 80% for the next two-three years. This is very ambitious targets, and as you know, the margins are very high in Uzbekistan. Why? As you know, we are making a medium-term target. In 2025, we are targeting to generate net profits, GEL 200 million. Profitability in the medium to long term, we are looking to have a return on equity more than 30%+. Giorgi, do you want to add anything here?

Giorgi Megrelishvili
CFO, TBC Bank Group

Yes, I can. Probably one thing I want to add is that it's exactly why we show GEL 200 million , to show the quantum of profitability. There are not many fintech banks that actually make profit and money, because there are many, but not profitable. One thing also I would like to highlight, that 2024 and 2025 will be actually the, let's say, investing year. We are going to invest into the business in cost, developing, scaling up. Therefore, despite that, we are still going to generate GEL 200 million , so it will, it actually will include a material scale up, and as Vakhtang mentioned, on like in the medium term of stabilizing, we actually expect higher surplus even.

Vakhtang Butskhrikidze
CEO, TBC Bank Group

Yeah.

Giorgi Megrelishvili
CFO, TBC Bank Group

That.

Vakhtang Butskhrikidze
CEO, TBC Bank Group

Did we answer your question?

Rahim Karim
Head of Financial Research, Cavendish Capital Markets

Yes, you did. Thank you so much.

Moderator

Thank you. We have the next question coming from Konstantin Rozantsev.

Konstantin Rozantsev
Research Analyst, JPMorgan Securities

Yes, thank you very much for the presentation. Could you please confirm if you can hear me?

Vakhtang Butskhrikidze
CEO, TBC Bank Group

Yes.

Giorgi Megrelishvili
CFO, TBC Bank Group

Yes.

Konstantin Rozantsev
Research Analyst, JPMorgan Securities

Thanks a lot. I had three questions which I wanted to ask, and apologies if I missed a bit of that throughout the call previously. The first one, could you please confirm? So the bank has a dollar perpetual bond, which has a call date next year in October 2024. What should be our expectation if this perpetual bond is gonna be called or not? What should we expect on that? The second question, could you please comment on the central bank's or regulators willingness to see local banks calling their perpetual bonds? Has there been any communication from the central bank with that regards?

Are they willing to be, you know, to make banks, you know, act investor-friendly in that regard, or it's, it's still kind of a very uncertain question and hard to comment on that? The third question, you mentioned with respect to the senior bonds, so you have senior bond maturing next year, and the bias is to remain at the market and to have a new one, a new senior bond in place. In terms of the subordinated bonds, is there any issuance expectations in subordinated bonds in the coming periods?

Vakhtang Butskhrikidze
CEO, TBC Bank Group

Yeah.

Konstantin Rozantsev
Research Analyst, JPMorgan Securities

Thank you. Thank you.

Giorgi Megrelishvili
CFO, TBC Bank Group

I'll take those questions. On ATL, all I can say is that we do understand market actually sentiments and what market expect us, and the decision will be, like, closer to the period, but we do get everything. I'm not allowed to comment anything else. On NBG, generally, again, if your capital position didn't decrease, you will remain or above your capital positions. You need to evidence that. We have not started that yet, but again, we need to kind of evidence that, and our kind of regulator is very kind of from the times to understand. For example, during COVID, you remember that ATL payments were made and paid. There was kind of nothing stopped that, and therefore, that's all I can say on this, like, point. I think, what was the third question? Can you remind me? I think that's all.

Konstantin Rozantsev
Research Analyst, JPMorgan Securities

Oh, this, thanks a lot. The third question was about issuance plans in Eurobonds. You commented on the senior.

Giorgi Megrelishvili
CFO, TBC Bank Group

Yeah

Konstantin Rozantsev
Research Analyst, JPMorgan Securities

side and anything on subs.

Giorgi Megrelishvili
CFO, TBC Bank Group

Yes, that's again, like, for... Again, we would like to remain on capital market for senior bonds, and we will kind of decide closer to the time. That's kind of what we decide, and on ATL, what I can say is that, again, we do understand what market expects. That's all I, all I can say at the moment.

Konstantin Rozantsev
Research Analyst, JPMorgan Securities

Okay. Thank you very much for the comments. Thank you.

Moderator

Thank you. We have one more question coming from Jan Demir.

Speaker 8

Yes, good afternoon. Thank you, everybody, for for the presentation. Congrats on the results as well, I guess. I just have two questions. The first one is on the product portfolio in Uzbekistan. Do you have more medium-term plans that fall into this 2023-2025 horizon to expand into, you know, retail categories such as micro SMEs and, you know, maybe expand the product, product portfolio a bit along those lines? That's, that's the first question. Also, the second question, I also wondered if you have any foresight or data on how a bad asset quality cycle for your existing portfolio could look like in Uzbekistan.

Is this a country where, you know, you, you operate with 6% cost of risk in good or bad times, or do you think in a bad cycle, this could, this could move up a bit?

Vakhtang Butskhrikidze
CEO, TBC Bank Group

Yes.

Speaker 8

Just, just wanted to, yeah, get your views on that. Thank you.

Vakhtang Butskhrikidze
CEO, TBC Bank Group

Yeah. Thank you, Jan. I will answer this question. As you know, today, the portfolio in Uzbekistan is fully retail, but in the medium to long term, we are looking also to grow up also part of the portfolio in micro and SME. SME, we mean that only to finance working capital and up to probably we will define it probably in 25%, 24%-25%, but our feeling that it could be maximum up to $200,000 or something portfolio and working capital financing. Probably in one-two years, the structure of the portfolio could not be changed. It will be same structure, maybe in the medium term, smaller changes we will see in the structure of the portfolio. To answer your second question, of course, it's a normal business.

In the normalized business, there will be up and down, and the cyclicalities we have to see in the countries and the sectors, banking sector, and also in our case. In our business plan, of course, we are looking, there will be some kind of the ups and downs on the NPLs, on the cost of risk we have in our business plan. When we are saying that these GEL 200 million largest profits we want to generate in 2025, but in the long term, we are looking return of equity, 30%+ it's already incorporated in our business plan, the cyclicalities.

Speaker 8

Super. Thank you, Vakhtang.

Moderator

Thank you. I think we have one more question from Rona Guardian.

Speaker 9

Thank you. Good afternoon, congratulations on the results, and thanks for taking my question. I guess maybe just somewhat of a follow-up on margins. As Giorgi mentioned, we expect margins to decline to 6.5% in through the rest of the year. Could you maybe give a sense of what we should expect more in the medium term as the NBG continues to reduce rates, but at the same time, we see exposure from Uzbekistan continue to grow? And also with regards to maybe medium-term targets, thanks for the.

Giorgi Megrelishvili
CFO, TBC Bank Group

We can hardly hear you, Rona.

Speaker 9

Sorry, one, one second. Can you?

Moderator

A little bit?

Speaker 9

Sorry, can you hear me better now?

Giorgi Megrelishvili
CFO, TBC Bank Group

Yes, we do.

Speaker 9

Okay. Sorry, I'm not sure how much of the first question you...

Giorgi Megrelishvili
CFO, TBC Bank Group

I, yes, I do get it.

Speaker 9

Okay.

Giorgi Megrelishvili
CFO, TBC Bank Group

So.

Speaker 9

just, yeah, get some sense of medium-term margins. Also, from a medium-term perspective, just what kind of growth should we expect at, at, at, at the group level and maybe also, from, from, from Uzbekistan, from, from a long-term perspective? Thank you.

Giorgi Megrelishvili
CFO, TBC Bank Group

I'll take this question. On net interest margin, again, as Vakhtang mentioned, we expect LFR rates to go down, and it will decrease Georgian NIM. However, we are going to expand our Uzbekistan portfolio that has much higher NIM, that will compensate quite a big chunk. Therefore, we don't expect in medium term to fall below somewhere 6%-6.1%. I'm talking about as a medium term, but as I mentioned, remaining of the year, 6.5%, and probably next year also above 6.2%. That's what we do kind of expect on the margin dynamics. And on the growth, probably on Georgia, nothing changed much. This year, I have seen growth was like at around 14%-15% for the last two years.

Over medium term, we do expect to grow with the kind of nominal GDP growth, plus maybe certain penetration, maybe somewhere 10%-12% on Georgian side. Uzbekistan business, as we mentioned, it will be 80% loan CAGR that we expect by 2025.

Speaker 9

Okay. Thank you.

Moderator

Thank you, Rona. I think we have answered all questions. If you have any additional questions, please don't hesitate to contact us by email or phone. Once again, thank you, everybody, for joining our call today.

Vakhtang Butskhrikidze
CEO, TBC Bank Group

Thank you.

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