Good evening, everyone, and welcome to the analyst meet for Bank of Baroda's financial results for the quarter and year ended 31st March 2026. Thank you all for joining us. We have with us today our MD and CEO, Dr. Debadatta Chand, and he's joined by the bank's executive directors and our CFO. After brief introductions, we have a presentation on the results, with the highlights of the performance, which our CFO will take you through, followed by opening remarks by Dr. Chand, and then we will start with the Q&A session. And sir, would request you to begin.
Thanks, Firoza, and all my analyst friend, very good evening to all of you. I think you have a busy day today because 3 banks announced their financial today. Thank you so much for joining. Just to introduce the management team, I'm D. Chand, MD and CEO, Bank of Baroda. With me, Mr. Lalit Tyagi. He's the Executive Director. He looks after the corporate credit, the international banking and, more importantly, the treasury with him. We have Mr. Sanjay Mudaliar. He's the Executive Director. He looks after the IT function of the bank and including the retail asset, which is again a large book as on today, apart from a couple of other platform function. We have Mr. Lal Singh. He's Executive Director.
He looks after the SAM vertical, which is a Stress Asset Management Vertical, including HR and also the MSME, the department also a part of his portfolio. We have Madam Beena Vaheed. She looks after the operation of the bank. The CCO reports to her, including the risk management, many of the platform function, including the compliance and control audit, and also the retail liability, which is again a large franchisee for the bank. We have the CFO, Mr. V. Inumella Sridhar. He has been there for a couple of quarters interacting with all of you. With this, I hand it over to Firoza.
Yes, sir. We will now have the presentation. Mute. Sridhar, sir, I think you may be on mute.
Sorry. It's my privilege, Good evening, everyone. It's my privilege to present before you the financial highlights of Bank of Baroda for the quarter and financial year ended 31st March 2026. As at the end of 2026, the bank's global business volume has crossed milestone of INR 30 lakh crore and stands at INR 30.78 lakh crore, registering a YOY growth of 13.9%. Our global advances have grown by 16.2% YOY, with domestic advances growing at 14.5% and international at 24.4%. Within the advances book, the bank has continued to focus on RAM advances. Our organic retail book grew by 17.9%, agriculture at by 20.7%, and organic MSME by 15.6%. Corporate loans have grown by 11.2% YOY.
Within the retail segment, we have seen smart growth across the portfolio with auto loan at 20.6%, mortgage loans by 19.3%, home loans by 14.6%, education loans by 10.9%, and personal loans by 8.7% YOY. In terms of deposit growth, our total deposits have grown by 12% with the international deposits growing by 7.5% and domestic deposits by 12.8%. The domestic CASA deposits have grown by 9.8%, and term deposits have registered a growth of 14.8% YOY. As of March, 31st March 2026, the bank's domestic credit, deposit ratio stands at 83.4%. The CASA ratio stands at 38.9%, up by 45 bps quarter-on-quarter.
With regard to our quarterly profit metrics, our operating profit for the quarter stands at INR 9,069 crore, registering a growth of 11.5% YOY. The bank has adopted new mortality rules for arriving at the AS 15 liability, which led to an increase in the employee cost by INR 520 crore. Our net profit for Q4 2026 stands at INR 5,616 crore, registering a growth of 11.2% YOY, which is the highest ever quarterly net profit. Return on assets remain consistently above 1% at 1.15% in Q4 2026. Return on equity stands at 17.27% for the quarter. For the full financial year FY 2026, our operating profit stands at INR 32,259 crore.
Our net profit for FY 2026 stands at INR 20,021 crore, which is the highest ever net profit. Return on assets remain above 1% at 1.06% in FY 2026. Return on equity stands at 15.39% for FY 2026. With regard to key ratios, our yield on advances stands at 7.44% for the quarter and 7.71% for FY 2026. Bank's cost of deposits for the quarter stands at 4.78%. It stands at 4.87% for FY 2026 as against 5.10% in FY 2025. With regard to our net interest margin, it stands at 2.89% for the quarter, registering a sequential improvement of 10 bps.
It stands at 2.89 for the whole FY 2026. We come to our asset quality, which continues to remain robust. Our GNPA ratio has improved by 37 basis points YOY and stands at 1.89%. Our net NPA ratio is below 1% at 0.45%, an improvement of 13 basis points YOY. Our provision coverage ratio, including TW, is comfortable at 93.94%. Our slippage ratio for Q4 2026 has reduced by 11 basis points YOY and stands at 0.89%. Slippage ratio for FY 2026 also reduced by 6 basis points YOY to 0.72%.
Credit cost for Q4 FY 2026 has increased to 0.76% as against 0.44% in Q4 FY 2025 due to the prudential floating provision of INR 1,500 crore made by the bank during the quarter. Credit cost excluding the floating provision would have been 0.32% for the quarter. Credit cost for the full financial year stands at 0.46%. Again, the credit cost excluding floating provision would have been 0.34% for the full year. Coming to our SMA and collection efficiency, our click SMA one and two as a percentage of our standard advances reduced to 0.18% as of March 2026, as against 0.33% for March 2025.
Our collection efficiency excluding agriculture remains robust at 98.9%. In terms of our capital adequacy, our capital position continues to be strong with CET1 at 13.16%, Tier 1 at 13.64%, and overall CRAR at 15.82%. Our quarterly average LCR remains healthy at approximately 127%. Bank has declared a dividend of INR 8.5 per share, subject to requisite approvals. Thank you.
Thank you, sir.
Sanjay, over to you for your opening remarks. Sir, you're on mute.
Thanks, Sridhar sir, and, I mean, to all my analyst friend. Let me make a couple of qualitative comments on the financial that you have announced for this year and also for the quarter. I think we have a very strong growth both on the balance sheet and also on the profit and loss. A couple of numbers that we see on the balance sheet. This year we crossed the league of INR 30 lakhs plus kind of a business, and the business stands at INR 30.78 lakhs crore of business as on 31st March. At the same time, couple of other milestone that we see on the financial is that we crossed INR 20,000 crore of net profit for the standalone entity.
The profit becomes INR 20,021 crore for the financial year. The profit for this quarter, INR 5,600 possibly is the highest in any quarter for the bank for many years, maybe for the decades. On the advances side, although our guidance was 11%-13%, but in terms of the percentage that we have announced is global advance growth of 16.2%, and the domestic advance growth of 14.5%. At the same time, on the deposit side, we have seen one of the best quarter, which again, couple of quarters, you know, we've seen our deposit not catching up to the growth in advances.
The deposit growth is almost 12% full global deposit, with the CASA at 9.8 and the saving growth at 9.1. I think these are the numbers which maps very well with regard to our focus on low-cost deposit and our focus to grow on the CASA because for last many years, we are focusing on the CASA deposit and we have, I mean, improved on the services side, product side, bundling of products so as to improve on the CASA front. Both the growth of advances and deposit, if I see, this is the best quarter in last 10 quarters. I mean, we have seen the journey of banks, the journey of the industry for last 10 quarters in terms of growth percentage.
Our number or the percentage growth in this quarter has been the best in last 10 quarters. On the profitability front, the NII growth has been positive. You would have seen a number saying that the increase in interest income has been higher than the interest expenses. That's something in earlier quarter, slightly it was going negative in terms of the interest income not growing up to the extent of the growth in interest expenses. I mean, this quarter, I mean, the trend is different. The interest income growth has been higher than the interest expenses. Consequently, the NIM, the NII is at INR 12,495, INR 94 crore, which is a growth of 8.7%. The NIM domestic at 3.04 at a global year 2.89.
This NIM percentage is also higher than that of last quarter. As the CFO said on the employee front, because of the hardening of the yield, the obligation under AS 15 has gone down, but at the same time, the bank decided to migrate to the new modality table where there is additional liability requirement of INR 520 crore, which we have provided for. I mean, the employee cost that you would have seen, including AS 15, the trend is in line with the system what other banks also would have announced. Couple of numbers in terms of the operating profit of more than INR 7,000 crore.
I mean, we are announcing this more than INR 7,000 crore on operating profit for last 14 quarters. This quarter it is INR 9,069 crore. Net profit, we are announcing more than INR 4,000 crore for last 13 consecutive quarters. Similarly, the ROA of more than 1, that is one of the guidance number we have that we are having more than one for last 15 consecutive quarters. The accretion to the book value, which is again one of the fundamental factors in terms of what you look as an investor, it has improved from INR 148.8 in March 2023 to INR 251.7 in March 2026. A increase or incremental addition of book value to the extent of INR 102.90.
Asset quality has been one of the best as far as the numbers are concerned. The GNPA at 1.89%, the net NPA at 0.45%. Both in terms of the slippage ratio and also the credit cost. The credit cost full year is 0.46% as compared to 0.47%. Both will be within our guidance range. I think the asset quality and in terms of the Philip data in terms of SMA one and two, more than INR 5 crore also, it has gone down from almost from 0.36% to 0.18%. With this, I think the asset quality has been one of the good as far as we are concerned.
Secondly, a couple of initiatives that I want to highlight before you is that the bank recently raised a INR 10,000 crore of green infra bond. This is the first in India to raise a green infra bond. The response was 3x of the amount that we wanted to mobilize. We have outstanding Green Deposit as on today to the extent of INR 1,899 crore, and I think by far is the highest deposit in the system. We've also announced this time that we're going to raise capital in the form of AT1 and Tier 2 to the extent of INR 6,000 crore in this financial year.
I'll also remind you, earlier announcement wherein we announced that the bank would be keen to raise INR 8,500 crore of equity capital over a medium term that is up to FY 2028. In terms of capital raise, it's almost like we have the, what you can say, not pipeline, but a room to raise INR 14,500 crore consisting of INR 8,500 crore pure equity and INR 6,000 crore of AT1 and Tier 2 for this year, 2026, 2027. Let me reiterate a couple of guidances normally we give. The loan guidance we are upsizing from the earlier guidance of 11%-13% to 12%-14% considering our performance, subject the global headwinds doesn't impact big time to the Indian market.
The deposit growth is from 9-11 earlier, it has been upsized to 10%-12%. The NIM we achieved 2.89 this quarter, we are slightly looking at a probable repricing of asset liability. We're projecting at 2.75-2.95 for the full year. The ROA continued to have more than 1, that is what we had earlier guidance also continued to have the same guidance. The slippage ratio also, we still keep it at the same level of 1-1.25, the credit cost below 0.60. These are a couple of guidances I think are important for you. With this, I'm close. I'm done with my opening remarks. We'll open for question and answer.
Thank you, sir. If you have a question, please raise your hand, or you may also type your question in the Q&A box. We will start the first question with Rikin Shah. Rikin, if you can please unmute yourself.
Hi. Good evening, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. Just two questions. First one, you know, on your reported global yields on advance and cost of deposits, both have moved down, and the cost of deposits have gone up, but the margins are higher. Presumably, that's due to some interest on IT refund. While I do acknowledge that you've called that to be core in the past, but if you could just quantify the amount of the same. That's number one. Second question is specifically on cost of deposits. If the overall, the global as well as domestic cost of deposits have marginally gone up in this quarter versus the last quarter, so how is the outlook on the same?
Fair to say that the TD repricing is already done for us completely and how only the cost of deposits move? The third and the final question, sir, is on the OpEx, two moving parts as you pointed out. Now with this mortality rate change, how should I think about the ongoing OpEx going ahead, employee expenses specifically?
Okay. Thanks, Rikin. Coming on the margin, and particularly the yield on advances and the cost of deposit, I think, the denominator for both the things are different, right? Whereas the NIM takes care of the full on the asset side. As the spread and margin are different, so we should not compare the spread and margin because that would give a different picture. At the same time, I do agree, there is a line item with regard to the IT refund. Earlier also I said, because since we have a large, I mean, the provision on the IT, we keep on getting this as a normal flow.
It can be higher or lower in a particular year, although we had a 2.89% NIM for this quarter, we projected a 2.75%-2.95%. That accounts for any volatility that may be because of the IT refund. The NIM is one, that's a core NIM, and what we announced, the NIM is the core NIM. That is with regard to, I mean, we should not get confused with the spread and margin, because margin computation is different than the spread.
Fair enough. Would you like to quantify, sir, the interest on IT refund in this quarter? I think last quarter it was about INR 300 crore or INR 400 crore.
No, actually, we don't have a number. I don't have a number. We can, offline, can I get a number. Again, on the same thing, I reiterate because there are refunds, significant refunds coming every year that we have seen. The amount can be higher and lower, and precisely for that reason, actually, I've given a guidance, lower guidance at 2.75.
Got it, sir.
The whatever amount, that's very insignificant to the overall. I have a income base of almost INR 126,000 crore. In that way, that's not a very significant to impact on the margin. Cost of deposit, you are right. I think it's getting sticky at this point of time. If I compare the March over December, although the cost of deposit, for as far as we are concerned is one of the lowest in the market, right? At 4.78, I think, we are one of the lowest in the market on the cost of deposit. Going by the liquidity scenario prevailing, because suddenly in the March quarter the geopolitical issue came big time, and which is still persisting.
In that way, my sense is that, I mean, the cost of deposit is going to sticky. Maybe there is a scope of realigning on the asset side, but as on today, I don't see cost of deposit further going down at the current scenario if the liquidity continue to be the same like it is as on today. In that way, slightly mindful of the repricing effect of other asset rather than the deposit, because deposit whatever has been fully repriced as on today based on the current level. On the mortality, I think the CFO will be the right person. Before that, madam, may I Anything you want to say on the cost of deposit?
No, sir, because I think it is likely to remain at the same levels because it will be elevated. March quarter, we saw a slight increase in the cost of deposits, and it is likely to continue for this quarter as well, because we don't see it coming down in any time, at least for the next 3 months.
Mr. CFO, can you just address the mortality table?
Yeah.
Sir, actually the, one time impact that we have taken due to momentarily mortality is INR 520 crores. This is one time. Going forward, the recurring impact will be very negligible, sir.
Got it, sir. Perfect. Thank you. Sir, if I can just add on one more question. You know, in the SBI call just prior to our call, they were alluding to some scope to improve the yields on advance as the corporate borrowing moves from the T-bill to the MCLR. Is this something that we can also possibly do, or is that a likelihood or a positive kicker on yields on loan going ahead?
That's why I said, actually, when I said the deposit is sticky, that means the only scope for us to realign the asset pricing, right? When the rates were really low, many MCLR linked loan got repriced with the external benchmark, more particularly T-bill. With the elevated, I mean, the rate structure which is prevailing because of the geopolitical issue, I think there is a scope for realigning that portfolio, and that is what actually our strategy to look into those pricing very closely.
Got it, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from Jayant Karuturi.
Thank you for the opportunity, sir. My question is on the ECL guidelines that have come through. You have been in the past transparent about the impact. I think you've called out around 18 basis points, sort of a steady state impact. Is the final guideline to your earlier calculation telling with it? Is it better than that or could it be higher than that? That's the first question.
Yeah. Thank you very much for that. Actually, earlier it was a draft guidelines, so it was possible to estimate or guesstimate those impact, right? Now there is a final guideline. What is our I mean, stance is that unless and until we compute fully on that, it's not proper to quantify that at this stage. My sense is that whatever guidance we had given earlier, it is not going to, it would be aligned to those numbers. I'm not expecting any significant change vis-à-vis the earlier, I mean, although that was a more of a tentative calculation in that manner. We want to see the real impact and then possibly articulate better, and that would be proper to articulate rather than giving any number at this stage.
That's what actually I said in the media bit also, and I'm saying it to you also.
Understood. Second question is on the trajectory of margins. While I understand your full year guidance is in that 2.75 range, is it fair to assume it will first move down and then move up in the second half given the near term pressure on deposits and given the asset repricing strategy that you're trying may take a while before it shows up on yields?
You are right. One thing that we are assuming for this quarter at least, that the cost structure is going to be sticky. I mean, as I said, the cost of deposit further moderation, going by the current scenario, we're not looking at. The only way, the name we can manage with regard to realigning the asset pricing, and that would be one of the key focus as far as our, I mean, management work is concerned. At the same time, why slightly we give a conservative number, because this IT refund is a flow which is although a continuous one, but it can go up and down in every quarter, and that depends upon the refund order that we get. Keeping everything in mind, we have given a slightly a conservative guidance on the lower side.
Not necessarily it would happen in the Q1, maybe at the later quarter, but that all depend upon how do you do all this math together so as to protect the margin.
I assume, sir, the 2.75 is the lowest number ex of IT refund, that's why you kept that at the lower end.
All four quarters together, I think we should not be breaching this lower threshold of 275.
Even with zero IT refund, that's why you are confident.
It won't be zero. I never said zero.
No, no, I'm saying that's why you are trying to give some conservative guidance.
We have some estimate of the IT refund for the full year based on the orders and the seasonal or whatever the past trends. Based on that is the guide.
Understood. Sir, lastly, on the incremental OpEx, I do understand, is there any revision on employee wage because of the yield movement that you have taken in this quarter?
No, the AS 15 impact already articulated by CFO. I think, CFO, can you just go ahead with your AS 15 impact? That is the only OpEx that maybe slightly you may be interested to know.
Yeah. Actually, the mortality tables which we have adopted are the latest tables. With that, the one-time increment in the AS 15 obligation is around INR 520 crores, that we have fully absorbed in this quarter.
Going forward, the recurring impact will be negligible. Regarding your question, I think it pertains to the base settlement, which is still not at due.
Thank you very much, and all the best for the year.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from Kunal Shah.
Yeah. Hi. Am I audible?
You are audible Kunal. Please go ahead.
Yeah. thanks for taking the question. firstly, when we look at it, the increase in the bulk deposits which have been there and I think the earlier question on cost of deposits, I think it would be also the factor of bulk deposits, getting raised, which was almost like, say, 14% quarter-on-quarter and 25%-26% YOY. Maybe few quarters back, we had seen an incident wherein all of a sudden we reduced both the bulk deposits as well as the wholesale portfolio at one point in time, and we saw a significant reduction in the balance sheet size. At any point in time, would again we be pursuing that, in terms of the margin management or ROA management exercise? if you can just clarify that. That's the first question.
Second question is on floating provisions, INR 1,500 odd crores. This would be towards ECL transitioning, I believe. How much more do we plan to create it further? Obviously credit cost was much higher during the quarter including this floating, but would we see that continuing for a couple of more quarters? On recoveries from written off again compared to our guidance of INR 750-850 odd crores, we saw a substantial increase. That seems to be some one-off account out there. Otherwise, in terms of the guidance for FY 2027, do we continue to maintain INR 750-850 crores? You alluded to most of the other parameters in guidance, but this time you have not given it for recoveries.
Just would want to reconfirm that as well.
Thanks, Kunal. You said right with regard to we said earlier, maybe 2, 3 years back, that we want to reduce the dependency on bulk deposit. When I said dependency, at that time, bulk used to be almost like, I mean, I'm talking about the total deposit as a percentage, was almost 23%, 24%. We went down to almost a level of 17% at some point of time, maybe 2, 3 quarters prior to this. Having said so, because of bulk deposit dependency, here the balance sheet size has not actually was, I mean, de-growth. I mean, the balance sheet continued to grow strong. The strategy was to replace the bulk with the low-cost deposit.
There we have been doing consistently well for last many quarters, in this quarter also you would have seen our saving growth is 9.1%, and you can compare with many banks who have declared and what is the growth they do have. The strategy has really worked in terms of focusing on the saving, and that's why we have one of the highest CASA percentage within the pure banks. I mean, currently also it is almost at 39% and you have the comparison available, you can make it out how the strategy work. On the balance sheet we have grown significantly, in the same time, we could able to change the bulk percentage from bulk to low cost side.
For the March quarter, particularly the geopolitical what has happened, there was a liquidity possibility. The loan growth has been very at a 16.2%. You need to be there in terms of managing both your liquidity, at the same time, maybe you need to mobilize a bit of a deposit both from the bulk and CD together. We have a component of CD in the bulk, the number that we see, INR 3 lakh 20 or INR 3 lakh 21. CD, as you know, these are again, slightly the duration less with the cost also lower than that of bulk deposit, because typically bulk deposit is a one-year deposit.
In that way, the bank is managing the liability, I mean the liability profile in a manner which is again optimal in terms of liquidity, optimal in terms of pricing, optimal in terms of margin. That we have been doing since long, I think that's something a positive trajectory of the bank for last many quarters and years now. On the floating provision, the provision has been created typically to buffer the balance sheet for any extraordinary scenario, not for tagging with any ECL provision per se. Reason being this for a floating provision cannot be touched unless and until there is a regulatory approval for that. It's basically buffering the balance sheet strength to create floating provision rather than tagging with any particular ECL impact.
If ECL impact is to be taken in the books directly, we'll take it in the books directly without touching the floating provision. I mean, these two are not linked with that, but obviously, yes, any headwinds that can create both globally, also, any such headwinds, I mean because of the geopolitical issue, we are mindful of buffering the balance sheet in terms of creating balance sheet strength. Third, with regard to, you said right, the TWO this time has been, I mean, higher as compared to, because normally we give a normalized guidance of around INR 750 crore, INR 800 crore. This time, obviously, March quarter is always a productive quarter in terms of slightly making your efforts more in terms of recovery, and that has resulted into a higher recovery, particularly from TWO.
I'll continue to have the same normalized guidance of INR 750-INR 800 crore. Mind it, my TWO book is almost INR 62,000 crore. Estimating any such recovery, quarter to quarter, is, I think it's appropriate and reasonable.
Would there be chunky account of INR 500 crore, INR 700 crore in recoveries this quarter?
There are many. Actually, it all depends upon when the resolution happen and when you recover money. There are legal processes, NCLT processes, multiple such things. Purely pinpointing that it can happen in a quarter, it's not possible. We are hopeful because the kitty is quite, INR 62,000 is quite a large amount.
No, I'm saying in Q4 was there any chunky account of INR 500 crores, INR 700 crores?
Not any chunky one. It is, I mean, mid-size, some of the exposure which has mid-size, maybe INR 200 crore, INR 250 crore. A couple of such accounts there.
Okay. Got it. Perfect. Yeah. Thank you. Thanks and all the best. Yeah.
Thanks, Kunal.
Thank you. Next question is from Parth Gutka. Parth, you can please unmute yourself.
Yeah. Hi, sir. What was the LCR as of the March end?
It is one twenty-seven percent.
Okay. Of this recovery from TWO of INR 1,400 crore, has some amount gone to the interest income line item?
It is so, yeah.
okay.
That comes into interest income and also on the recovery, on that.
Okay.
the interest income on this.
Sorry, sir, I missed the amount.
INR 100 crore has gone to the interest income part.
Okay. Okay, sir. Okay, sir. Thanks a lot.
Okay.
Next question is from Ankit Bihani.
Yeah. Yeah. Thank you for the opportunity. My first question is on the growth and deposit growth guidance. Still we are expecting loan growth to continue to outpace the deposit growth going ahead. Given that now, how much buffer do you have on the LCR front now, and what would be the comfortable LCR that we would like to maintain? My second question is again on the interest on IT refund. While you call out it as core, you know, a contribution to core NIMs, this number is very volatile. Do you expect this to sustain perpetually? Because somewhere this has to come down, right? Because in our calculation, I think it is contributing around about 10%-15% towards your ROA.
How long your interest on IT refund can continue?
Okay. First thing you talked about, LCR, I answered. Secondly, on the IT refund, let me On growth outpacing, deposit. Look, on a sustained basis, you have the capital, right? You have, lot of other alternative resources where you can take refinance, you can raise bonds. We as a bank clearly focus, on, creating a, stable, resource base and also deposit base. While maintaining, even you would have seen the CD ratio almost at domestic around 83 point something on that. We improved since last quarter anyway on the CD ratio. The growth percentage, the base of deposit is a larger base as compared to, the base of advances. That is point one.
Secondly, in a scenario where banks are holding, like a bank like us holding more excess SLR, any deposit we raise need not be put that into SLR because the entire money can go to deposit. And that is what a scenario we are seeing in many last couple of years where because you are holding excess SLR, the money, incremental deposit we are raising straight going into the advances. So in that way, I think, this gap of 2.5%-3% is sustainable, one, in terms of growth of advances and growth of deposits. So that covers your, the advances outpacing deposit. At the same time, obviously bank would like to augment the resource base and want to grow higher on deposit.
Interest on IT refund, earlier also I said, yes, it's a line item, which is clearly as per the accounting, but can be volatile, yes. I do not estimate with regard to what is the year this year, what is going to be a year next year. These are all based on the actual tax refund. That's why accounting for estimate, we give a margin guidance. That's why having achieved 2.89 also I'm giving a guidance of 2.75 to 2.95, accounting for the same amount of money which you got this year, possibly may or may not be in the next year based on the available what is the refund that we expect. That your issue is covered in the margin guidance.
That is what my. We typically don't get into quantifying. It's a line item always there in the income as per the normal accounting norms. Why should I segregate that amount as a different amount? Yes, it is volatile. I do agree. We account this estimate in terms of how much we get in this year in the margin guidance.
Lastly, how long this can continue? Like one year, two year, three year, four year? Whatever you can say.
I will-
Now if you look at our tax rate, it is.
Yeah. I'll give a guidance next year again. As far as this year guidance, I'm very clear that there is going to be a good amount coming, right. Next year, suppose I see there won't be any money, then I possibly won't account this and give a different guidance. My guidance for tax refund is based on this year, only one year. Perpetuity we'll discuss maybe in the next year.
Okay. Sir, lastly, on the ECL front, I think I missed out on the answer of yours there. Any quantification on what could be the impact and, how could our credit loss, credit cost run rate move, on implementation of ECL?
That is what we said earlier. Actually, look, when the draft guidelines was there, actually it was able to estimate or g-estimate with regard to the likely impact, and that we articulated in terms of a actually, absolute number also in terms of percentage both on the CET1 and also on the credit cost. Having issued the final guidelines, it won't be proper to, without really running imputation transaction-wise, difficult to say with regard to any quantification. We'll do that, but we'll do it slightly once we implement and then have a number, possibly one quarter number coming very clear on that. I'm not articulating any number, but my sense as on today when I look into the final guidelines and the draft guidelines will not be off track from the number that we estimated earlier.
It will be aligned to those numbers. Actual, I mean, once we slightly implement at transaction level and get a clear picture at least for one quarter. We'll be in a position to quantify everything on the ECL impact.
Sir, last quarter did you guide that the run rate, credit cost run rate could increase by 18 basis, if I'm able to recollect correctly?
I mean, possibly you have to recollect, right? I can't recollect. Whatever we said, I think, my sense is that it's not going to overshoot significantly.
Okay. Yeah. Thank you for that, Sir Ganesh.
Thank you. If anybody has any questions, I'll just repeat, please raise your hand or you may type your question in the Q&A box. The next question is from Rikin Shah.
Hey, thanks for, you know, taking my follow-on question. This is relating to the SLR, right? We do disclose the domestic SLR, which is about INR 3 trillion on our balance sheet right now, which has just not changed in the last three, four years. As a proportion of the NDTL, it has come off very sharply, and it's about 17% right now because I have only the total NDTL, not the domestic NDTL. My question to hear is that, how much scope do we have further to, you know, or how much excess SLR is still left on the balance sheet for us to keep optimizing? That's number one.
The number two is, you know, until now, we were able to, you know, bring down the SLR, excess SLR via surrendering a lot of the securities in the OMO or the switches. The likelihood of the same is probably low going ahead. Even in the event if there is no OMO, would you be willing to liquidate it in the market? Thirdly, just as a philosophical level, isn't it a better idea to lock in bonds at the higher yields right now, sir, rather than lending to the corporates and home loans at the similar rates? Where of course there will be some amount of capital charge and the credit risk also involved.
You're right, the treasury management, the bank is running one of the largest book actually. We are amongst the top three or four in terms of holding. At some point of time, the SLR holding was almost 26%, 27%, but subsequently, as on today, it is around 22.5% or 23%. It goes on floating. While managing this SLR, it is not one way that we surrender. I mean, we sell or we put that on OMO. We keep on buying at different level as per the market condition. Whenever we feel the levels are elevated, we get into the market. It's a churn happening. Maybe 1%, 2% on the SLR is a continuous churn that happening in terms of buying and selling.
In that way, it's always optimization game rather than a single selling that SLR and make profit. In that way, I think we are, we're managing treasury well in that way. I think that's something is part of the treasury management because the trading profit comes out of all this churn. It's not necessarily you sell only your book and make profit. You have to buy and sell, and then only you can make profit. Our strategy on that would continue. But in terms of a comfort range you want, because, see, the advantage of excess SLR is that it generate liquidity, right? That's the very potent or important purpose of running excess SLR. That helps the liquidity, right? That's very clear.
Bank would like to, now as against 18%, you are at 22%, that means you are almost running 4.5% excess SLR. We like to operate at a safety, I mean, a threshold of maybe 3%-3.5% at all point of time. The purpose is not only on investment in terms of generating profit, the purpose is also generate liquidity at the right time in case we require to. I think that would be one of the strategy as far as the bank is concerned. Mr. Tyagi, anything you want to add on this?
Sir, actually, apart from this, we also wish to have a comfortable LCR, and that's where the excess SLR also helps us in maintaining our comfortable LCR posting.
Yeah.
Sir, the choice between, you know, locking in the long-term bond deals at reasonably decent rates right now versus growing aggressively in the home loan corporate and auto loan, where, you know, the risk-adjusted NIMs or more importantly, when adjusted for the capital RWA is, how do you think about it?
Yeah, Mr. Tyagi will answer this.
Thank you very much. Sir, actually, Rikin, the both instruments or both markets are different. Investment yield, investment holding achieve different objectives and remaining in the loan market, whether it is home loan, whether it is corporate book, whether it is MSME, they are different. Loan books gives us loan customers, gives us deposits also, other cross-sell opportunities also. It's not straight through interest rate we look upon when we lend in home loan, car loan, or corporate segment. We also look at the holistic relationship, and also we expand the bank's various product profile. I mean, and, you know, different liability profile meets these different asset book objectives.
Perfect. Thank you, Tyagi Sir and Chand Sir.
Thank you.
Thank you. The last question that we'll be able to take today is from Jai Mundhra.
Yeah. Hi. Good evening, sir, and congratulations on your term extension. Sir, I wanted to check on your capital raising plans. Is that on track, and how soon can this be done?
Thanks, Jai. Thank you very much. The capital, already we have announced actually, AT1 and Tier 2 for this year. I mean, I'm talking about 2026, 2027. We have announced that we'll be raising INR 6,000 crore. In case you don't raise, then it can also go to the subsequent year because we have used a word, "if expedient" on that. Earlier, we announced a equity raise of almost INR 8,500 crore to be as an enabling provision to raise by FY 2028. We can raise that money in any year up to 2028. Almost INR 14,500 crore is the planned raise of capital, both from the equity and also on the AT1 Tier 2, which is slightly, I mean, it can be on this year or subsequent year.
We have taken a medium-term plan of FY 2028. Beyond this capital also, we normally keep raising infra bond and other. Those are also part of the resources where we have to announce to the exchange. Those, if there is a requirement to do that, because sometimes we look at the duration of your liability book as a whole. Somewhere we find that because we compute the duration of asset also and the gap between duration of asset full book, I'm not talking about only investment. In case we want to tweak something as a asset liability management purpose, we keep raising long-term resources also.
It's all the ALM management that would decide whether we need to raise long-term resources in the form of infra bond and other bond, if that be the case, it was announced to the market at that point of time. What is already announced, approved by the board, is enabling INR 8,500 equity and INR 6,081 Tier 2.
Right. Sure, sir. Sorry, the capital raise plan of INR 8,500 crore, that is also on track, right? You have a decent, very strong CET1, but still despite that plan is on, right?
Yes, it is on. It is always on table. It would depend upon the time at which we really want to tap it actually based on the market conditions and the requirement of capital for the bank for different, I mean, any scenario going forward, maybe a geopolitical or anything. If there is a need, we will raise it immediately. It is a enabling that is applicable till FY 2028.
Right. Sure. Sir, do you have a number for blended bulk deposit cost for last quarter? I believe, bulk deposit rate would have started to cool off. Qualitatively if you can comment, you know, how much, let's say the blended bulk deposit rate would have come down for you?
I don't have I mean, data on this. In case you want, we can offline provide you. The issue is that actually I was just giving a context in one of the earlier conversation wherein, in two, three years back, we had a larger percentage of bulk as a percentage of total deposit. Mind the denominator, because people compute in different way, then get confused on this. It was almost 24%, 25% at some time, and we reduced that to 17% of total deposit two quarters back. As you know, the liquidity scenario in March quarter is always a different scenario because of the geopolitical inducing bit of a liquidity I mean, tightness.
From 17 it went to 19%, but still below 20%, which is my very normal, what you can say, the guidance with regard to bulk deposit. We'll continue to optimize based on the need for liquidity, need for the growth on the asset. At the same time, the pricing impact also we'll be mindful while doing this. It's overall concept of liquidity management, need management that decide how much bulk we need to have.
Go forward on this.
Right, sir. Sir, do you suspect any increase in the retail term deposit rate in the near term? I think a few banks have started to increase retail TD rate, but what is your sense on that?
See, I'm not predicting any increase in deposit rate. One thing I have said that the cost of deposit, which we are one of the lowest in the system, if you had look at the numbers of 4.78, that's going to be sticky in the Q1. Sticky in the sense I'm not expecting that to go down further.
Sir.
that number may not be very comparable because we have a 20%+ share of overseas, and which is-
No, no. I'm talking about the domestic.
Okay
4.99, right?
Okay. Okay. Sure.
That's still below five. Not many banks below five.
Right. Sure.
So-
And sir-
Yeah.
Sure, sir, please complete.
In that way, I mean, sticky means, I'm not expecting to go down. Actually, going up would depend upon the liquidity scenario in the market.
All right. Sir, have you made any PLI provision for this year and the quantum of that? The performance linked incentive.
PLI, I'll check. Just one second. We have made provision for that actually. We've made provision.
Sorry, sir, how much is the quantum?
INR 700 from this.
I mean, sorry, sir, if I could get the quantum of, for PLI.
INR 500 crore. INR 500 crore. INR 500 crore.
Okay. Sure. This is now you I mean, where is it? Is it in staff cost or this is in some other provision? Because I think they're still under mitigation, right?
It is under staff cost.
Thanks a lot, Debadatta Chand, and all the best.
The very last question is from Kunal Shah.
Thanks. Thanks for the follow-up. Particularly on the overseas exposure, almost INR 260,000 crores of a book. Maybe if you can just clarify in terms of the profile, particular two aspect. One is directly Middle East exposure, and second is how much is trade-related, and there have been trade disruptions which have been there. Any risk, because today it's almost 0 NPA in overseas exposure. Do we see any risk of the NPA coming up over two to three odd quarters?
Look, overseas, I mean, the trade is normally up to 20% because we don't allow trade book to significantly go up because the trade has a fine pricing, no. Because that also impacts your need. I think on a percentage basis, the trade is below 20%. Exactly, if a number I can give you, because that's what we prescribe for overseas trade continue doing business. The remaining exposure are most mostly on a local syndication that particularly some of the markets were very big over there, like U.S., even Gulf City has a big market, these are all global syndication where we participate with HDFC Bank in terms of taking those exposure.
Big books in U.S., Australia, even Singapore for the matter, and all those. I think as at today, there is no impact in terms of their asset quality on this. Particularly Middle East, yes, we do have exposure, because Middle East we have a large retail operation over there. The outstanding can be in the range of around INR 50,000-60,000 as at today, but that's again spread over multiple countries which are, again, some of the countries are A-rated as at today. The direct impact of this, I mean, all those country, right? The regulator also, they have announced some kind of a measures like the ECLGS we have done in India, it will sustain their operations. Real impact we'll not get to know once and until we just see.
As at today, there is no concern with regard to asset quality because these are the corporates having quite a strong balance sheet. Our large percentage of exposure are local syndication, which are global local syndication, where marquee names in the book and they are very big. Some of them are Fortune 500. I don't think any challenge as a, as at today with regard to the global international book. Yes, particularly-
Yeah
Middle East operation, we need to be slightly watchful for a couple of quarters.
Sure. How much ECLGS 5.0 withdrawal are we expecting maybe the drawdown benefit which we might take up? We participated last time also quite actively.
I think our book is INR 1.60 lakh is the MSME book, and roughly 55%-60% is the working capital, taking almost like everybody won't go up to 20% or maybe on a 15% scale. I think INR 12,000+ would be an amount that we'll be disclosing on the ECLGS.
Got it. One last question. If you look at auto loan, the growth is quite strong. We are seeing many of the PSU banks offering a very longer tenure product, seven years, nine years, and that too at a very competitive rate. Okay, do we see some risk coming up? Because obviously there is a depreciation which happens after four, five years, there would hardly be any value left out there. Why so much of aggression from PSUs on auto? Same with home loan in terms of competitive rates. When do we see PSUs lowering the aggression in these two segments on the rate side?
Yeah, I don't see a PSU outlook here, but as far as the bank is concerned, we'll continue to grow, on a auto loan. Reason being, look, auto loan is not a, like, it's not a productive asset to generate revenue. I mean, it based on the cashflow a person is having from which he pays the money. Our selection of borrower in terms of auto loans are more, looking into cashflow, salaried class, where we have done a bulk transaction, means bulk tie-offs. I think in that way the growth has been good.
As at today, whether I track the stress book or the GNPA percentage, I think these are all benign and very, very small at this point of time because the possibly the ability of the cashflow to support the payout is still continuing the same way. Going forward, in case there is anything that we see at an elevated level of risk over there, actually we do portfolio review every quarterly on all the books. These are all being done at a very serious senior level, board-level committee and all. Anything we see a incipiency in this sector, which I don't see as at today, then possibly we'll evaluate.
As at today, my guidance will continue the same way like we are continuing on auto loans.
Okay. Thanks. Thanks for patiently answering all the questions. Thank you and all the best. Yeah.
Everyone, I would now request, CFO, sir, to please give the vote of thanks.
I would like to extend my sincere gratitude to all of you for joining us today for the announcement and discussion of our financial results. Should you have any further question, please feel to reach us to me or to our investor relation team. Thank you once again for your time and continuous support. Have a great evening ahead. Thank you.
Thank you very much. Thanks. Thanks a lot.
Thank you, everyone.