Ladies and gentlemen, good morning, welcome to the LIC Housing Finance Q3 FY23 earnings conference call hosted by Axis Capital Limited. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Praveen Agarwal from Axis Capital. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, Lizanne. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to this earnings call. We have with Mr. Y. Viswanatha Gowd , MD and CEO, Mr. Ashwani Ghai , our Chief Operating Officer, and Mr. Sudipto Sil, CFO. I would request Mr. Gowd to share his initial remarks on the results, post which we'll open the floor for Q&A. Over to you, Mr. Gowd.
Okay. Thank you, Praveen. Thank you. Very good morning to all of you. I actually hardly welcome every one of you to the post-earnings conference call of LIC Housing Finance Limited. As you're aware, LHFSL declared its Q3 FY 2023 results yesterday.
Prior to detailing the operational aspects, I would like to highlight that the current fiscal year, RBI increased the Repo Rate by 225 basis points in 5 consecutive MPC meetings, in line with the monetary policy happening across the world due to inflationary pressure. Consequently, the company also raised its LHPLR by 210 basis points in the current fiscal year to date. The financial highlights of this quarter are as follows. Total revenue from operations, INR 5,871 crore as against INR 5,054 crore for the corresponding quarter of the previous year, showing a growth of 16%. Outstanding loan portfolio stood at INR 268,444 crore as against INR 243,412 crore as on 31st December 2021, reflecting a growth of 10%.
Out of which, the individual home loan portfolio reported a growth of 14%, now it is comprising of 83% of total portfolio. It is up from 80% one year ago. The total disbursements for the quarter was INR 16,100 crore as against INR 17,770 crore for Q3 of FY22. Out of that, disbursements in the individual home loans were INR 13,580 crore as against INR 15,341 crore for Q3 of FY22. The project loans were INR 427 crore as compared to INR 293 crore for the same quarter in previous year. It is up by 46%.
On the net interest income front, the NII was INR 1,606 crore for the quarter as against INR 1,455 crore for Q3 of FY22, with a growth of 10%. The net interest margin for this quarter has been stable at 2.42% as against 2.42% for Q3 of FY22. Profit before tax for the quarter stood at INR 593.01 crore as against INR 961.85 crore, a decline of 38%. Profit after tax for the quarter stood at INR 480.30 crore as against INR 767.33 crore for the same period previous year, with a decline of 37%.
In terms of asset quality, stage three exposure at default stood at 4.75% as against 5.04% as on 31st December 2021, and 4.9% as at the end of September 2022. This quarter, our focus was on margin improvement and asset quality. As you would note, there is a, there is an increase quarter after quarter in NIM from 1.8% to 2.42%, bringing us back to the Q3 of FY22 levels. This has come on the back of the extra liability management and passing on the increase of CLR by 115 basis points in Q2, which has taken effect from Q3. A further 35 basis point hike was affected in December 2022, which is effective from January 1st of this quarter.
The other focus area was on asset quality, wherein we are seeing stable numbers with a small quarter-over-quarter decline. The asset quality trend is looking positive and improving. We are very much positive on that. You would note that this quarter we have made a higher provisioning to the tune of over INR 760 crore. This has been made to increase the overall PCR substantially. The stage three PCR now stands at 50.8%. It is up from 43.6% one quarter back and significantly higher than the December 2021 where it stood at around 39.7%. It is in line with the company's objective of strengthening the balance sheet. Last few months, there have been successive Repo Rate hikes by the RBI, due to which the home loan rates have also increased across the industry.
Though this has a slight impact in slowing incremental business, our individual home loan book continued to show growth of 14%, by and large in line with our expectation. The disbursement for the nine-month period registered a growth of 13% overall and also 13% in retail category. On the funding side, we have witnessed an increase in the cost of funds which stood at 7.4% as compared to 7.1% in Q2 of FY 2023 and 6.69% as on Q3 of FY 2022. It is attributable mainly to a total cumulative repo rate hike of 225 basis points by RBI in the current fiscal and increase in other benchmark rates like T-bills and G-Sec, et cetera.
Incremental cost of funds also in turn, and it stood at 7.61% for Q3 of FY2023. The further interest rate trajectory will be largely governed by the ensuing RBI rate policy. With this brief introduction, I would like to invite you for your queries. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin with the question and answer session. Anyone wishing to ask a question may please press star and one on your touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Madhu Ajwainia from Nuvama. Please go ahead.
Hello. My first question is on the provisioning figure. Does that include any write-off or it's all provisions only? Hello?
Members of the management team? Hello? Members of the management team, are you able to hear us? Ladies and gentlemen, we seem to have lost the audio from the management's line. Please stay connected while we try to regain the audio.
Is it okay now? We're correct now.
Hello.
Yes. Are you able to hear us?
Yes. Yeah, we are. We are online only.
Okay, sir. Please proceed.
Yes, madam. I think we answered her, no? We told that there is no write-off.
No. I'm so sorry, sir. We were unable to hear you all.
No, there are no write-offs. Sorry.
Okay. Just in terms of your gross fee, was there any slippage from restructured loans this quarter?
Yeah, the restructure slippage, as we mentioned earlier also, which is in line with around 15% which has been there. That is consistent for the last three or four quarters.
Okay.
Overall there has been a slight reduction in their overall.
In the restructured slippage-
In the restructured, yes.
Okay, thanks. Thank you.
Thank you, ma'am.
Thank you.
Okay.
We'll move on to the next question. That is on the line of Abhijit Tibrewala from Motilal Oswal. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for taking my question. Again, coming back to this credit cost that we took during the quarter, just wanted to understand. During your opening remarks you had suggested that this was in line with the company's objective of increasing the strength of the balance sheet. Just trying to understand this a little better from what we've known all along is that the provisioning is usually driven by an ACL model. I mean, has there been a significant increase in the risk that we foresee that has led to an increase in TCR by about 7 percentage points on a sequential basis? Or let's say you are anticipating higher slippages from the structured pool over the next six months when those moratoriums in your corporate book get over. That's my first question.
Abhijit. Okay. One thing, here I would like to say that ECL and all, okay, we're having a policy, we follow it. Here what happened, as I mentioned also, to strengthen the balance sheet, one thing, and actually the management overlay. What happened is on other day also we actually, last time also telling you what happened, the TCR ratio, we would like to actually bring it up compared to earlier years. Now it is around more than 50%. That is the only intention. With that, we have increased the, what you call, our provisioning. TCR is now, it is in line with the industry now.
Okay, sir.
At least, sir, at least can we take that comfort that now that you have increased it to, let's say, 51%, you're going to maintain at these levels and we will not see the kind of volatility in stage three provisioning coverage ratio?
Yes, yes. Sure, sure. All right. That's really meant, yeah.
All right. All right. The second question I had was on prepayments. I mean, at least your slide 11 of the presentation says that the prepayment rate was about 9.3% for the nine months, which is actually significantly lower than about 10.5%-11% that we've seen in the past. Have, has there...
What you also said in the last quarter, has there been significant outreach in terms of retaining customers, giving out certain incentives for, to them to retain customers, which has kind of led to a lower prepayment number in this nine months?
No. As far as the incentive, et cetera, there was no incentive or anything of this sort in this quarter.
Overall, the prepayment rates have come down because of probably a tightening liquidity outside.
Okay, one more thing, market also whatever rates are increasing, no, in the increasing scenario, switchovers normally, what you call, no, will not be that much in the market.
Correct.
That will be showing downward trend.
Got it, sir. Sir, I have one last data-digging question. If you can just spell out for the benefit of all of us the restructured book which is outstanding as of December 2022, the third quarter, and if you could also split that into corporate and retail and also tell us when will the moratoriums get over and typically what you share in the earnings call, a split of your Stage Three, this is the core product earnings.
Okay. Tejas will give it to you this.
OTR you wanted. OTR for December outstanding is INR 1,420 crores, out of which the project is around INR 350 crores and the retail is INR 1,159 crores.
Okay. Sir, when will moratoriums get over? It is INR 1,420 crores.
I'll share with you the timelines. INR 600 crores will come out in the month of March. Again, another INR 600 will come out in the next quarter. The residual will be in the last September, which is just a few hundred crores.
Got it. The split of Stage 3, this is the core product earnings.
In the Stage Three, as far as the categories are concerned, the IHL Stage Three, this is all in data, right? It is 1.62. For the non-housing individual it is 6.74. For the non-housing corporate, it's 22.5. The total retail is now 20.99 and the project is 45.6.
Got it. This is useful, sir. Just one last question, sir.
Overall is 4.75.
4.75. Got it, sir. Sir, one last thing here. In your presentation you spell out what is the provisions that you are maintaining on those high-risk NPAs. Basically things which are NPA as per RBI criteria but are classified under Stage One and Stage Two. If you could also give what is the quantum or the pool on which you have maintained these provisions. Of about INR 110 crores.
I don't have it on hand, but I will give it to you.
All right, sir. Thank you so much, and all the very best wishes to you and your team. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you everyone.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vivek Ramakrishnan from DSP Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.
Sir, thank you. My question was on the NPA coverage which you just mentioned. In terms of loan to value of the NPAs, how much would you have in the sense is the disposable value, will that 50% coverage take adequate care of it going forward? How do you see it going forward in terms of resolution? That's my only question, sir. Thank you.
Yes, that is there.
Vivek, can you just repeat the last part of your question?
Sir, what I wanted to know was you increased the provision coverage to 50%. Now is it enough to, you know, start resolving this NPA?
I think I understood what you said. Yes. As far as the LTV is concerned, I will take you to some of the disclosures made in our presentation. You'll find that the LTV at the time of giving the loan itself is around 45% or around 50%.
Within that?
Yes, within that. That does not take into account the repayments which happen on that account and any improvement in the property prices.
Okay.
After the assumed haircut or the presumed haircut, there is substantial headroom available for full recovery of principal.
Correct. That's correct. Sir, thank you very much, and good luck, sir.
Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Umang Papneja from Kotak Mutual Fund. Please go ahead. Umang, your line is unmuted. Please go ahead. Mr. Umang Papneja , your line is on the talk mode. Please go ahead. As there's no response from the current participant, we move on to the next. That is on the line of Nishant from Kotak. Please go ahead.
Thanks for taking my question. Just two points. One is, you know, again, on the large provisions that you made this quarter, you know, is it something which is on any specific assets, or is it something that you would have increased coverage at a similar ratio across all the, you know, all these loans?
No, it is not against any one specific, not like that. It is our general what is called, philosophy of maintaining very good PCR to be in line with industry, we increased across all.
Because in the past, I think you had guided for, you know, around 50 odd sort of basis points of credit cost and, you know, suddenly it went up this quarter. Is it something that, you know, you would want to kind of accelerate to a particular level, you know, and then take a pause? You know, why is it that, you know, you could have done it? I mean, you could have probably staggered it maybe over a three-quarter period or something. You know, just trying to understand, you know, what led to suddenly the reason to do it in this quarter.
Yeah. As far as the credit card is concerned, yes, that will be maintained at the same level. In the sense what happened, the whatever even earlier also I indicated to you that it will be around 40, 45, no, 40 basis points. Is that so? Correct me. Within that range mostly.
What is this?
45-50 basis points mostly.
Yeah, this quarter was a higher number, right? Which is-
Yeah, this was a higher number. Going forward, what we've mentioned is that going forward once we have achieved a, by and large stable, level of, PCR-
Oh, I know.
By and large after that it will be in that range. This was because specific, if you see the actual provisioning required for the purpose of just maintaining the earlier ratio at 40, just 1 quarter back it was around 44%. If you had to maintain it at around 44%, the provisioning required would have translated to a 45 basis point credit cost. But there is a specific objective to increase the PCR beyond that level. From 43% or 44% PCR, which was there earlier, it has now moved to upside of 50%. The balance 6% or 6.5% which has been created as a additional provisioning cover, that has led to the increase in the overall credit cost.
That is actually, if you just break down the numbers and see how much of credit cost would have translated if we had maintained the earlier PCR, then it would have translated to the same 45 basis point. Please keep in mind that there has been no increase in NPLs.
Yes. NPLs maintained. NPLs in fact has slightly reduced over the last quarter. Small reduction.
That's true.
On the disbursement side, you know, in the individual segment we have seen some decline at the moment year-on-year basis, closer to around 10%, 9%, 10%, 11%. How should we kind of think of it? Is it something that the best phase in terms of credit growth is behind us or is it just a basic fact? You know, what kind of a growth will you really see in individual disbursements going forward?
Actually, in the Q3, what happened, initial month of this October and November, there are small, here and there some sort of reduction was there in some region. That's why we could not score well in those two months. December month gave good fillip for us because then it was almost brought up a good state. What happened now, that reduction also what happened because rate interest rate hikes also were there, probably some temporary setbacks were there. Apart from that, because of this now in the Q4 normally, in entire, what you call no, across all regions, lot of what you call no momentum will be there and traction will be seen across all the regions at a highest speed.
With that, what happened is very sure that this Q4 will be far better and we are still what is called very positive on our Q4 performance and we will show more than I think 12%-13% growth will be there in our volumes of disbursement in the quarter.
On an annual, on a year-on-year basis, that is.
Yes, year on year basis also the 13% will be maintained. That very, we're highly positive about that.
The beat officials are fourth quarter is very well, so.
Yeah. Already what happened, you know, because things are going on very well and then good demand is there. Even the recent Budget announcement, everything put in place a very good what you call no fillip for all these things.
Sure. Got it. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Dhaval from BST. Please go ahead.
Yeah, sir, just 1 question relating to the credit cost. Sudipto, you mentioned that a large part of the credit cost went into achieving a particular target provision coverage. Have we completed that journey or still there is few percentage points of coverage increase expected, post which it should normalize? If you could just clarify that point. Thanks.
Like by and large now we are almost, well, nearing to that. Correct. It's almost, well, what we do thought actually 50% and more than 50% we wanted to keep that PCR to be what you call no, to have very good, even to be in line with the industry for the main thing. That's why we provide for that. I think now as things stand now, I think we don't see any further increase required maybe in this one.
Sir, from 4Q '23 onwards, should we go back to the 40 to 50 basis point credit cost zone? Is that fairly clear or is there any other one-off or any such element that will come in the fourth quarter?
Yeah. As Nabil sir mentioned, it is now normalized.
Got it. Thanks.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Bhavik Dave from Nippon India Mutual Fund.
Hi, good afternoon to all. Most, like, my question was very similar to the previous participant. Just to clarify again, the provision that we set up on stage one and stage two is also adequate of what we think for the future, right? Like 5 basis point for stage one and 6.4% that we have for stage two. The numbers would be in that range. We don't intend to increase that materially and keep the stage two provisioning at around 51, a little above 50%. Is that the way to think about it?
By and large it will be there, like that.
All right. Second question is, on your employee front, is there anything that is pending in terms of wage provision or any cost that can come up in terms of employee expense that can surprise on the higher side?
No, no. As it is, nothing is there. What happens normally, you know, last time, last year probably would have been the problem but now we are making a provision very, very purposely that it is normalized now. One-off things will be there.
Understood. Last question is, a very small, observation in the sense that commercial paper borrowing for the quarter has increased on a quarter-on-quarter basis. I understand that we used to be at 4.5%, 5% even pre-COVID. This time around we increased it considering the kind of rates that are on the offerings in terms on the shorter end, what led to, for us to increase shorter end borrowing wherein the cost is 150, 200 basis point higher? Just, about that.
See actually as per-.
Around CRE exposure will come down, I think, about all NBFCs are looking.
Yes.
The timing depending upon the requirement and also giving in time the kind of
Sure. Understood. Last question is, what is your incremental spreads on home loans?
sir, can you not repeat It's causing a lot of-
Hello. Yeah. I'm trying to understand what is your incremental spreads on home loans?
Incremental spreads on home loans will be around 120, 25 basis points.
Sure. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Harshvardhan Agarwal from IDFC AMC. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. just wanted to understand, that a restructured book has come up by around INR 6,000 crores or INR 6,200 crores in the last 9 months. how much of that had actually flipped into Stage 3?
About 15%.
Okay. 15% is of that INR 6,200 crore number?
Yeah.
Okay. The remaining book that has been graduated to stage 1 or it still remains in stage 2?
No, most of it is in stage 1.
Okay. Okay, got it. Sure. Thanks. Thank you very much, sir.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Shweta Daptardar from Elara Capital. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir, for the opportunity. A couple of questions. Did you mention.
Shweta. ma'am, your audio is not clear.
It's better now.
Okay. ma'am, it's coming very softly.
Yeah, I'll try to be little louder. I wanted incremental cost of funds and yields for the Q3 quarter.
Incremental cost.
Incremental cost of funds is 7.61% for the third quarter.
Q3.
Yes.
Yes. Sir, yields.
Hello.
Pardon, ma'am.
Hello. How about incremental yields?
Incremental yield?
Yes.
Yeah. Incremental yield is approximately slightly more than around 9%. Slightly more than 9%.
Okay. Noted, sir. One last question. Have you seen balance transfer outsource this particular quarter? How has been the competitive landscape? Thank you.
Balance transfers have come down significantly. It has come down significantly.
CMP may continue also.
Sure. Noted, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Manish Jain from Valuefirst Digital Media Private Limited. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, sir. I'm an individual retail investor, my company name has not to be there, that's the same thing. My question is that, although there's one good part about this quarter result is that last quarter we saw a significant decline, interest income. That has recovered. Last year that was a big hit. As a retail investor, my question is that.
Mr. Jain, sir, your voice is sounding very muffled. We're not able to hear you.
Okay. Can you... Is it okay now?
Yeah. Fine. Fine.
Okay. Okay. As a retail investor, my question is that, a year back, Q3 results were very good. We had profit of INR 767.5 and EPS of about INR 15. After that, every quarter something or other happens, we don't get a good result. Last quarter interest income was low, this quarter impairment is high. Now this particular impairment, I was just doing my calculation that, half the PBT, more than half the PBT goes in impairment. While I was checking some other housing finance company, much lower. Okay, I'm talking of a public sector housing finance company. I don't want to name. They have a interest income and their provisioning or impairment is less than 1% of their interest income.
While in your case it is 12%-13% of your interest income. You have interest income of INR 5,800 crore and INR 700-750 crore is provision and impairment. It completely spoils the bottom line. My question is, when do we see a consistent INR 15-16 EPS quarter after quarter? I think for every quarter something happens which spoils the results. Are we going to see same impairment in Q4 also? The INR 700 crore, INR 800 crore is just written off. That gives a very bad name to the company and that gets reflected in your multiples, in your valuation. Valuation, I'm not even comparing with... Let's say, I will now take name. I'm not comparing with HDFC or some private company, even UTI, Canara Bank. The valuations are much better.
What is inherently wrong with our company? I'm long-term investor in this company, so I would like to know what is inherently wrong that we are not able to manage our assets well and provisioning is always very high.
What exactly is the query?
Now one thing, actually, what you are telling.
My query is very clear that why we have high provisioning compared to other housing finance companies with the same book size?
I agree. In earlier parts of what happened, the provisioning ratio, what we want to have on our, what you call, the NPAs, so that was not on a higher side in the sense it is not at a level where the industry levels are required. That's why this quarter we had to make extra provision only to come up to the level, number one. Number two, last three years, one or two quarters, what happened? After last quarter, income levels were less because what happened, the transmission also was taking time and the RBI rates also were increasing. We have got as per our policy, what happened now, we pass on the rate hikes at the end of the quarter. In a sense, the effect will come on the first day of the quarter, that's the thing.
That's why there are some sort of inconsistency as the income levels are concerned. Now, we have come up to the industry levels of this, what we call, PPR. I think going forward, probably this may not be so acute or is now it is felt. More or less we are inching towards our consistency now and so on.
We are now as far as Q4 is concerned, almost half the quarter is over. Can we expect that Q4 results there will not be any hiccup and we will have a result which will have INR 15 or INR 16 PTS and interest income and provision. Interest income will be good and provisions will be lower. Again, we will see something or other going wrong in our P&L account?
We cannot give an exact guidance on what will be the profit number for Q4. That guidance we will not be giving. Yes, if you look at it qualitatively, certainly, the one-off provisioning that we have done is actually to strengthen the balance sheet. The money doesn't go out anywhere, it is just to create an additional buffer. That is, in a way lending strength to the overall balance sheet and provisioning coverage ratio, which is actually a positive, I mean, move by the company.
I mean, how come higher provisioning is a positive move? There is something wrong, that's why you have to provision it.
No, no, not like that. What happened now, even NPAs have to come up to one level no, the provisioning covering ratio.
I mean, over a longer period of time, it should get written clear off, no?
Correct. That's why it is being done now, no?
Thank you. We'll move on to the next question. That is from the line of Sanket Chheda from DAM Capital. Please go ahead.
Hello?
Mr. Sanket Chheda, we are not able to hear you.
Yeah, could you somehow remind him?
Mr. Sanket Chheda? As there's no response from the current participant, we'll move on to the next. That is from the line of Sunil Balani from Nomura. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Two questions. Firstly, on the provisioning bit, you have shored up your buffers, so since there is, you know, no write-offs and there is also decline in NPAs, is it safe to assume that, you know, as per the ECL model, the PD and LGDs are increased? That is one. The second is even on your while you have guided, like, you know, in going ahead the provisions will be lower, your stage one and stage two cover is also quite low as compared to peers. So in accordance with your model, will you be needing to shore up that in the future? And, you know, accordingly, can we expect some credit costs on, you know, to cover for that risk?
No, just to clarify, there has been no write-offs and there has been no change in the PD LGD expectation.
Okay. Okay. On the second bit, sir, on the stage one and stage two, do you expect?
The stage 1 and stage 2 is okay adequate at this point in time.
Okay. Okay. In the future also you'll be expected to, you know, maintain these levels for stage one and stage two cover around these levels.
Yeah. Overall PCR will remain by and large in the range that we have indicated. There could be realignment depending upon where the, which, bucket moves to which place.
Okay. Okay. Yeah. That's it, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Shubhranshu Mishra from PhillipCapital. Please go ahead.
Hi, Sir. Good morning. I just wanted to clarify, you said that project loans have a gross stage two of 45%. Is that correct?
Yes.
How many accounts are there in now and what stage of resolution would they be? It will be very helpful if you can either put out a stock exchange notification or you can at least speak on the top five accounts on this call itself, sir, because that seems to be a very big number. If you can just start off with the number of accounts which are there and the exposure to each without naming, if you can start, sir. Thanks.
Actually, we cannot give, take any specific names, et cetera. Overall number of accounts, in the total project loan portfolio is around 300. Roughly around 300. Even for many of them what has become NPA now, the resolutions are also what is called, coming very well. Probably in future there will be a good resolution also we are expecting. It is in different stages of resolution. It is difficult to put out a specific timeline with dates and months because some of them are in the NCLT and various other legal matters. One thing is clear that there has not been any further additions, number 1. Number 2 is that we are seeing some small resolutions coming. They may not be meaningful at this point in time in terms of further number, but certainly the trend is positive.
Right. 300 is the total number of accounts.
Total number of accounts.
How many are in beyond 90 plus, sir?
Stage three will be around 140. Total. Total accounts. 80.
80.
Roughly 80.
80 accounts beyond 90+. How many will be 60+, sir?
6+ maybe another 20, 30.
Sure, sir. Thank you so much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rikin Shah from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity. Two questions. First one, I observed that this number of employees have been declining for last three, four quarters. So any color if you could share there. Second one was just to confirm the 35 basis point rate hike in December, have they been passed on to the borrowers or they will be effective from first January only? The employees part actually I know what you are asking. Employees, no? Number of employees.
Yeah, employee here and there is actually some people, no. Normally it happens who are joining, no. Some people may leave also. Then again, that is it. The company also has got a continuous recruitment exercise which happens at certain periods of time, certain points of time in the year.
Maybe in the next couple of quarters you will see the improvement in numbers. That is an ongoing process. It is an annual basis. Yeah. Every year we are. It is a normal phenomenon. Some campus re-driven recruitment happens at specific times of the year. Already we have recruited people also. And that as far as the, what was your other query? Sorry. The 35 basis point rate hike It has already been passed on and it is effective from 1st of January. Okay. It is not factored in the Q3 numbers. It will come in the Q4 numbers.
Okay. Thank you so much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Shreepal Doshi from Equirus. Please go ahead.
Hello, sir. Thank you for giving me the opportunity. Just wanted to ask, what is the provision that we are carrying on the INR 14 million crore of moratorium book that we have?
As far as the RBI requirement of provisioning is concerned, it is 10% of all accounts which are under OTR.
We are carrying INR 140 crores?
Yes.
Okay. We just wanted to understand how much of the original re-restructured book is already out of moratorium.
see the total restructuring of INR 7,000, slightly more than INR 10,000 crores.
Around 3%.
INR 7,100 crores, which was around 3% of the then portfolio. Out of that, INR 5,264 crores has already come out. Around INR 750 crores of loan accounts have been repaid fully. That is closed. Balance, which is yet to come out of moratorium, is INR 1,420 crores.
Oh. Pending is 1.4.
Correct, sir.
Like, how have we adjusted the existing provisions that we were carrying on those accounts? So because now we are only having INR 140 crore for the existing out moratorium accounts. How have we utilized the remaining INR 5,000 crore which we were carrying, like on that book that we were carrying?
Can you please repeat? Your voice was a bit unclear.
Sure, sir. As you said, INR 7,300, INR 7,200 crore was broadly the original restructured book, we would be carrying INR 720 crore of provisions on that. Broadly speaking, by that I'm saying. Now that book is down to INR 1,400 crore, that provision initially is down to INR 140 crore. How have we utilized this, you know, INR 600 odd crore number?
See, actually, whatever provisioning was created, that has to remain on the book for one year and whatever is loan closed, that can be written back. Provision on the loan closed that can be written back.
Closed only INR 700 crores, no?
Yeah.
Okay, sir.
Okay.
Thank you. Thank you for answering my question.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Bajrang Bafna from Sunidhi Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Sir, my question pertains to, you know, again, on the provisioning side. The only issue, you know, that we are facing while, you know, modeling your business is we don't have any predictability that what sort of provision that you will do. You know, do you need to spell us very clearly that what is the, you know, guidelines that you are following? You know, as per my understanding, last 3 quarters if we see the stage one, stage two, stage three numbers, we are constantly seeing either stable number in stage three or an improving number in stage one side. Despite that, we have, you know, gone retail provisioning on stage three from 40% to 44% last quarter, and now close to 51% on stage three in Q3.
What is that something, you know, that we should be, you know, considering for our, you know, model building and what sort of ROEs those are sustainable in this business? Because as per my knowledge, you know, you will never lose 50%, you know, in the property which is 100%, you know, has been given as collateral. The expected credit loss, you know, even in stage three can't be 50%. What is that number based on which you are, you know, deriving this not 40% is not the right number, 50% is the right number.
Some sense on that, you know, which you could guide us clearly, we will be able to predict, you know, your company's performance clearly in terms of provisions also and in terms of building the ROE number right, and so forth the valuation. It is just an extension of the question which was asked by a participant some time back. We need some predictability of your numbers, you know, which would help us to, you know, model the numbers better. That's all. Thank you very much, sir.
As you have very rightly identified, in a real estate business with the underlying real estate asset, there is very little chance of losing more than 50%. During the period you have to create some buffer because though the realization will come, it will come with a delay, with a lag. In the interim, if the provisioning cover is specifically retained or increased or maintained at a particular level to give comfort to the balance sheet for the interim period till the time it is realized. One has to keep that in mind. Again, coming back to your first observation, it is correct that 50% loss after even a distress sale is very rare. That does not generally happen.
Moreover, as a prudence, sir, as a matter of prudence also we take on this conscious position.
Okay. We will, you know, would like to hear that this, 50% is an ideal. We will not go to, let's say, 60%. That is what something that I want to, you know, get an predictability from you so that we can model it better, sir.
I think, I think in a year's time the way we have increased from 39 odd % to 50%, that itself says that we are trying to reach a particular level which gives us adequate comfort. It actually insulates the balance sheet from any type of losses which might happen due to delayed realization of the stressed assets.
Beyond this limit, of course, may not be that much need at this moment.
Okay. Got it. Thank you, sir.
Thank you. A reminder to the participants, anyone wishing to ask a question, may please press star and one. The next question is from the line of Manoj Garg from Nuvama. Please go ahead.
Hello, sir. In the, say, last six months or maybe in the last quarter, say three to six months, this quarter and the previous quarter, did we have any NCLT related recoveries and what were the resolution rates? Is there any near-term recovery expected from NCLT?
Actually, madam, in the NCLT, I think, three cases are there in the resolution which are going on.
We received some positive orders. It is in the stage of realization or implementation, you can say.
There was nothing resolved in the last 3-6 months. It's only ongoing just now.
Three orders for realization.
Okay. What is the resolution rate there roughly?
Resolution rate means?
As in that of your loan, how much would you have recovered or of your outstanding, how much would you... The order says how much will you recover?
You mean to say in the percentage of terms, no?
Yes, yes.
Okay. Okay. I mean, it depends on the resolution because what happened.
The exact, difficult to give a number, but there is about INR 100-150 crores worth which is coming, I mean, which is likely.
Got it. On an exposure of how much?
That exposure actually right now I'm not able to give you, but it's the realizable, available amount is around INR 120 crore-INR 150 crore.
In some cases it may be even more than, no, it is close to the full amount or sometimes it may be less also, the average.
Different accounts. It is not one account, several accounts.
Okay. Thanks.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Chintan Shah from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. First, sorry to just touch on the provisioning part. Considering that we have made now 50% of provisioning and once the restructured portfolio is entirely out of restructuring and post the one year passage, can we also expect any provision write back from the same or how will we be treating those provisions?
Yeah, now I think INR 700 crores got closed, no?
Only INR 50 crores has been repaid and fully closed.
Closed. Yeah. No, I mean write back. No.
Okay. That has already been written back, right?
Yes, 50% done.
Okay. Just one more part, so on the provisioning part, so now I think we can now assume, say, already we have 50% of CCR, so now probably we want to start with a clean slate and now the focus will largely be on the growth part and no baggage of any older provisioning would come in future, right? This is what we can expect.
Yes. Yes, yes. Everything stand now, no problem. Will online.
Sure. Sure. Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sohil Rege from S V Rindani & Associates . Please go ahead.
Hello. Welcome, sir. I just wanted to know how the retail prospects will be for Q best because being interest rate being rising since quite a while and we don't expect any decrease in that. Are we expecting the same demand or are we expecting a better quarter as in in Q4 quarter we are expecting a good results or as in good demand with regard to loans?
Yeah, loan, actually disbursements definitely were very highly positive. Even in the past also in the interest rate cycles we are doing very well. This quarter actually already with all the things in place and good support, we are very much positive that the 13% growth will be showing in our overall what you call disbursements year-over-year. That is certain.
Just to add to what you just shared. Just few months before COVID, we were still selling home loans at around 9%. Today, despite a 225 basis point increase by Reserve Bank on the repo, we are selling at a rate which is less than the rates which was prevalent in 2019 or late 2018. At that point in time also the book grew. It's only because the rate of interest has gone up very sharply in a very short period of time between May and December, that is around 7 months or so. That is probably what is.
Temporary.
creating some kind of a temporary dampener.
Yes. Now Q4 we're highly positive. We will again definitely crossing that, our, already committed 13% growth rate.
Okay. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. A reminder to the participants, anyone wishing to ask a question, may please press star and one. Participants, if you wish to ask a question, you may please press star and one. If there are no further questions, I now hand the conference over to the management for the closing comments.
Thank you all. Really it was a good interaction. At the end, I would like to once again thank you for your continued support, and I also assure you that the company is in a very good consistent growth path. Thank you. Wish you all the best.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of Axis Capital, that concludes this conference call. We thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.