Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the Union Bank of India Earnings Conference Call for the period June 30th, 2025. The bank is represented by the Executive Directors, Sri Nitesh Ranjan, Sri Ramasubramanian S., Sri Sanjay Rudra, and other members of the top management. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Ajay Bansal, Deputy General Manager. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thanks, ma'am. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. I'm Ajay Bansal, Head of Investor Relations. Welcome you all for the Union Bank of India Earnings Conference for the period ending June 30, 2025. The structure of the conference shall include a brief opening statement by the respective EDs and the floor. The floor will be open for interaction. Before getting into the conference, I will read out the usual disclaimer statement. I would like to submit that certain statements that may be discussed during the investor interaction may be forward-looking statements based on the current expectations. These statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties, and other factors that cause the actual results to differ from the statements. Investors are therefore requested to check this information independently before making any investment or other decisions. With this, I now request our respective EDs for his opening remarks. Thank you, and over to you.
Yeah, good evening, everyone. Thank you for joining this conference call for Union Bank of India's Q1 FY2026 results. To begin with, let me just give a backdrop of the operating environment for the quarter-ended June 2025. As you are aware, on the global front, there were significant economic uncertainties coming from geopolitical tensions as well as trade dynamics, which is posing risks to the global growth. While at the same time, the macroeconomic fundamentals of the country remain quite strong, and India is expected to remain amongst the highest-growing economies in the world during the current year also. On the monetary policy front, RBI front-loaded policy repo rate, and also in the last policy, they have announced the roadmap for further reduction in cash reserve ratio by 100 basis points, which will kick in during the current quarter.
With this backdrop, let me also share some of the key highlights of the performance for quarter-ended June 2025. As of June, banks' overall credit grew by 6.8%, and within that, the RAM segment registered a growth rate of 10.3%. Retail loan book grew at 26% and MSME at 18%, reflecting a strong momentum in our focus in the priority areas. On the deposits front, growth was a bit moderated, and that was our strategic goal for reducing the bulk deposits. You'll notice that from March to June 2025, we have reduced our bulk deposits by close to 7%, while we continue to operate at a comfortable CD ratio of around 76%. Within deposits, retail term deposits showed very good growth rate of around 12% YoY for the year June 2025.
CASA ratio remains stable at 32.5%, and CASA plus the retail term deposits share in the overall deposit again remained steady at 74%. On the asset side, the RAM portfolio contribution stood at 56%, in line with our guided range. For the financials, net profit for Q1 FY2026 grew at a rate of 12%, amounting to INR 4,116 crores. On the return on assets, we have continued to perform more than 1% at 1.11% for Q1, which is again better than 1.06% in the same quarter last year, and return on equity also stood over 15%. There has been some moderation in the net interest margin, which we also guided through in the last phone call. For Q1, the net interest margin has been 2.76%, which is about 11 basis points moderation from Q4 FY2025. Capital Adequacy Ratio remains quite strong at 18.3%, with common equity at 15.3%.
We have also seen marginal reduction in gross NPA ratio and net NPA ratio, and it's moving towards our guided range. At the same time, provision cover ratio improved by 116 basis points to close to 95%. There has been a reduction in the credit cost. Now it was 47 basis points for Q1. Also, the slippage ratio was less than 1% for Q1 FY2026, which is a continuing downward trend over the last many quarters. Gross recoveries again outpaced the total slippages in Q1 FY2026, and we expect the same trend to continue. At the same time, the bank has been taking several initiatives in the area of digital banking, HR initiatives, as well as participating in the overall PSB reform agenda. As we have shared earlier, there is an EASE program running for all the 12 PSBs.
And for the EASE of last year, that is quarter-ended March 2025, Union Bank stood at third rank amongst all the public sector banks, and we continue to remain top three amongst many of the sub-themes of the EASE. With this, I'll just take a pause, and we'll open for the Q&A. Thank you.
Thank you very much, sir. We will now begin with the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask questions may press star and one on their touch-tone phone. If you wish to withdraw yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use only handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Ashok Ajmera from Ajcon Global. Please go ahead.
Thank you for this opportunity. Thanks for your opening remarks, sir, and in the opening remark, you yourself said that the Indian economy is the highest-growing economy, and we are doing well on the economic front, but if you look at the performance of the bank, I mean, we are contradicting the positive statement as the bank is continuously going in the negative zone. I mean, total degrowth everywhere. Like if you see, even yearly numbers have come down to 6.83% in the credit growth, and if you look at quarterly, you have a degrowth, actually. Either we have become too risk-averse. Our risk department is an arbitration. Our credit appraisal and everything has become too risky because in spite of having a good pipeline of the disbursement and sanctions, still we are not growing. This is a major concern of the bank that we need to do banking.
Similarly, on the recovery front, also this quarter has been very dismal. Sir, whether you talk about the cash recovery, which has gone down substantially from last quarter of INR 1,600 crore to only INR 790 crore, even the upgradation INR 519 crore, again INR 924 crore, and even if you take the recovery from written-off account , it has also gone down tremendously than the last quarter, so recovery front and credit front, as well as the treasury front, many other banks are taking comfort at least from the treasury profits if the real profits are not there, but here on the treasury, also if you look at the segment-wise, I mean, our profits are less than even the last quarter, so I would just like to know, sir, where are we heading? Are we still maintaining those targets, or we are lowering them down towards degrowth?
And somehow the profitability is a little bit maintained, though it is lower than the last quarter by almost about INR 900 crore. Really, in realistic ways, I would like to know what is actually wrong with Union Bank now for some time.
Yes, thank you, Ajmeraji. I have to assure you that there is nothing wrong with the Union Bank of India. If you're looking at it, we have been asked right for the initial remarks Mr. Nitesh told. It is about the margin. Protecting the margin also has to be looked into. So as we have seen that there was a large rate cut has been given, and which has been immediately passed on to around 46% of our loan book, which are covered under the EBLR. So certainly for also to protect the margin of the bank, to an extent, we have to see that our low-cost advances, we are not renewing or again replenishing that with low-cost advances. We are not doing it. If you look at our RAM growth, RAM growth is quite healthy.
If you see that our MSME has grown by around more than 17%, our retail has grown, though it is aided by the gold loans, which is around 25%. So we are growing in those areas. Only thing is, as you are correctly told, the corporate thing is very competitive. Rate of interest is very competitive. Because of that, we have to see that what best we will be able to do. We have to trade off between the margin also and also your growth. We are trying to manage both the things. So we are in the same position, sir, actually speaking.
When the things have been settled and when the rate cuts have been passed and we are able to reduce our cost of deposit to a large extent, certainly we will be back in the market of corporate trade, where we will be able to show a good growth, sir.
Yeah , one thing which I would like to tell you about, which you said about the treasury income has declined. Basically, if you see the real treasury income is one of the best in the last many quarters. The treasury has booked a profit of INR 1,418 crore in June 2025 as compared to INR 1,646 crore of March 2025. And June 2024, it was 1,026. Basically, March 2025, if you remember, there was an SR provisions were there to the extent of INR 793 crore. As per the RBI guidelines, those was written back was taken.
So the profit was INR 1,646 crore. If I exclude that INR 793 crore of SR provisions, then the profit was actually INR 853 crore. That's a substantial improvement in the treasury. But again, as you know, this treasury profit is basically dependent on the market, how the market behaves accordingly the profit is booked. Second thing about the overall, you said the operating profit has gone down by INR 950 crore. Basically, last June, June 24, we had a PSLC income to the extent of INR 950 crore. So that was the major income, one of items which happened in the last year. And this year since the opportunity was not available, so that profit is not added here. That is why the operating profit is slightly lower than the June 24 quarter. Otherwise, on the profit front, I feel that the bank has done very well.
As Ram Sir was saying about protecting the income, because you know that the rate war is going on in the market, and what sort of portfolio we should take, at what pricing we should take, that's a challenge, always a challenge. We have taken a conscious call on the portfolio also. We don't want to take any advances where the bank may incur a loss in futures. That is why the growth is slightly muted.
[inaudible] if you look at even SMA also, our SMA numbers also, SMA 2 has gone up from INR 1,200 crore to INR 2,600 crore. That is SMA 2, which might slip to NPA also. Our overall SMA in this quarter has gone to INR 4,917 crore as against INR 3,835 crore. So even on that front, even on the recovery front, the cash recovery is half than the last quarter. So I mean, on every such, okay, I can understand on the treasury what explanation you have given. What is about SMA and recovery?
In SMA also, SMA, I see there are a few accounts where the impact is there. But the past trend also says these accounts are repayments are coming, though due to certain reasons, these accounts are appearing under the SMA 1 and 2. But then again, this is the recovery is coming because these are having a good support of the government also. So I don't think there is any problem as far as the SMA numbers. I understand that there is a marginal increase in the SMA. But regarding the recovery, recovery in the Q1 is always the muted recovery. But bank is making all-out effort. And some of the recovery, which was supposed to come in the quarter of June because of some of the NCLT decisions were pending, and that has not materialized in the June.
And most likely it will come, that will materialize in September. So recovery also front, the bank is very active and doing well. Some of the results, which is not seen in June quarter, will definitely be seen in the September quarter. Thank you.
By around INR 12,000 crore.
Thank you, Ajmera.
What kind of?
To you, sir. Sir, I would request you to kindly rejoin the queue for follow-up questions. Thank you. We'll take the next question from the line of Mahrukh Adajania from Nuvama. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hello. Good afternoon. I had a couple of questions. Firstly, how much of your deposits, retail deposits, would have already repriced? I know there's, it's over a year of repricing, I mean, the repricing cycle. But how much? 15%, 16%? How much of your term deposits would have already repriced? That's my first question. And related to that, where do you see the bottom of your margin? I know that you may have a full year margin guidance, but they may fall and then they may rise. So where will the fall settle? That's the second question in your assessment. And then again, related to that, so the current account deposits have declined very sharply. I know there has been some reclassification as was evident by the business update you gave a few days ago.
So is it fair to assume that it was these deposits which caused the March 25 numbers to change in the one Q business update? So were the current account deposits reclassified as borrowing? So that's the spread-related question. And then I have one PSLC question. If you could explain why the PSLC income fully disappeared or disappeared, and then with the new clarification on the gold loan circular, in what quantum do you see it coming back and when? So these were my questions.
Yeah, so I think roughly if I take on the base of March 2025, close to 20% of the retail term deposits would have got repriced as of now because roughly 80%-85% of repricing is happening during the year. Given the average duration of the retail term deposit is around 1.2, 1.25 years. That is number one. On the reclassification, it is more on the deposits in the foreign branches and which was disclosed also while we disclose the provisional numbers. So far as current deposits are concerned, while you are comparing with the March numbers, you know in the March, there is some flow also into corporate and government accounts. Because of that, that number is high, which is not with the similar extent during the June quarter. So that is the usual thing. March numbers are generally high in the current account. Yeah.
Yeah, on the margins, as I said, for the full year, we are expecting 20-25 basis point impact on the margins. 11 basis point we have already witnessed in Q1. And in the roadmap-wise, if I look at what could be the minimum that we can hit, maybe somewhere between 260-265 is the range where we can hit at the minimum level. And from there, we should be able to bounce back effectively around 20, 25 basis point for the year. And on the PSLC, this quarter we have not done any PSLC. We are aware of the guidelines of Reserve Bank of India, and we are evaluating it as a part of our business strategy. And going forward, if the opportunity comes and we feel is a good income to book, we'll be doing that.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you. Then, ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that the management will be able to address questions from all the participants in the conference, kindly limit your questions to two per participant. Should you have a follow-up question, please rejoin the queue. The next question is from the line of Jai Mundhra from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Good evening, sir. A few questions. The first is, there is a standard assets provisioning of INR 446 crore, while of course the loan book growth has not been that high. If you have any, is there any chunky loan or is this something specific? If you can elaborate this.
Good evening, Jai Mundhra. This particularly in the because some of the assets which we felt that the ICA was not implemented, there is no overdue as on date. But we were required to maintain a higher provision. So these accounts where we have made some provision after the ICA guidelines. So that is why our standard provision has gone up.
Okay. And sir, these are private accounts, right? Not the state government or Quasi-PSU accounts?
These are not private companies.
So these are state government/Quasi-PSU entities, right? I mean, the risk in it is high.
Yes. Yeah, hi sir.
Sir, I was asking these ICA accounts, these are private entities or these are PSU state government just to assess the riskiness?
These are not private entities.
Okay. And sir, related to this, I mean, on standard accounts, I mean, in the last, I mean, have you done any OTS or can you do an OTS in the standard account?
Which accounts you are talking about?
OTS in a standard account.
Yes.
Yeah, as per the present policy, we don't go for any settlement with that.
This was not very clear. You said as per your policy, you don't do.
Yeah.
Okay, sure.
Lastly, sir, Rudra sir, I think you mentioned about the PSL and now that the norms have been changed, whatever issues that you had, you can resume the PSLC transaction, fee transaction, or it could still be some time away before you resume the PSLC income?
Yeah, yeah, we can definitely book some in days to come, we can book some profit. But major income of PSLC comes if we do it on the Q1 of the year. Because at that time, the commissions and premiums are highest. In the subsequent quarter, it comes down slowly. And the Q2 , Q3 onwards there. So if there is some further improvement happens in our portfolio, then definitely we'll be able to book some profit on account of the PSLC.
Okay. And sir, lastly, on that field, if you can share the share of MCLR, EBLR, and TDL link portfolio. And in your assessment, sir, how should one look at the residual impact of June rate cut on the easing on advances? So should this quarter ease on advances are down by 22 basis points, should this decline by similar quantum or higher quantum or lower quantum? Thank you.
Increases. We have almost 48% of our portfolio is under EBLR. So their complete rate transmission has already happened. And remaining 42%, we have our MCLR linked rate. And 10% other rates are there. So in case of the EBLR, transmission has already happened. And that has given the impact of around 11 basis points. So even if in the subsequent quarter also, with the MCLR also already we have reduced our MCLR by 15 plus 10 basis points. So total reduction in the MCLR also has happened to the extent of 25 basis points. Subsequently, I don't think there will be much reduction on the MCLR side. Even if the MCLR happens, then also our maximum impact on the NIM will be to the extent of not more than 20 basis points for the September quarter. But as you know, there is 100% CRR cut is 100 basis points.
CRR cut is already announced by RBI in the H2 . So that will compensate our interest loss. Most likely we'll be able to manage between 10 to 15 basis points of reduced NIM as compared to our March 2025.
Okay, sure. Thank you so much, sir.
Thank you.
Thank you. We'll take the next question from the line of Rakesh Kumar from Valentis Advisors. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Thank you. Thank you, sir. So firstly, sir, on PSLC, just clarification that last year we had sold around 50,000 crore of small and marginal farmer PSLC. And we could get the income of 1,100 crore kind of number. And it was kind of in the Q1 itself, I think. So one thing is that because of agri gold, does it really impact your SMF PSLC thing?
Most of the agri loans are below INR 2 lakh actually, and given the small and marginal farmer, but particularly the RBI came out with a guideline that up to INR 2 lakh loan cannot have any collateral security, and gold is also considered to be the collateral security in that case. This guideline has been revised by the RBI just recently. That is why that the small and marginal farmers' agri was reduced, and overall portfolio of the agri has come down by 9%. That has because of that, we were not able to sell any PSLC in the Q1 .
So probably looking at Indian Bank, Canara Bank, they also do a lot of PSLC income. And generally in the Q1 and sometime in the Q4 also. So looking, considering what peers are doing on the PSLC front and at yourself, it gives us a feeling that that kind of income might not come in this whole entire year.
Ha, yes. If you say whether we'll be able to get the INR 950 crore of income through PSLC, considering the present situation and the available portfolio, we don't foresee the same type of income. But definitely going forward, there may be some income will be generated on PSLC sales. What will be the exact amount and all, these are again the market determined rates. And these rates are not fixed at any point of time. So based on the market, we'll be able to book some profit.
Very good, and sir, this interest income on tax refund, which was not there in the Q1 previous year, this quarter also we have very small number, and full year we had around again 1,000 crore kind of a number in the previous fiscal year, so could we do that and achieve that kind of number in the rest of the fiscal year FY2026? Is it possible? Or that number could also remain kind of weak or absent in the remaining quarters?
Yeah, our CFO will reply to this.
So as far as that is concerned, we do have an estimation that there will be interest on income tax refund during this year. And we are quite comfortable in terms of being close to the INR 500 crore to INR 1,000 crore mark. So that is fine. And as far as your earlier question on PSLC is concerned, while that may not materialize, but we have looked at alternatives available. So we will be able to make up that fee income from other streams. So we do have a plan in place for that.
From PSLC itself, you will make up because you are buyer in.
Not from PSLC. We will be able to make it up through other avenues of non-interest income.
Got it. And one thing, when we do the recovery of return of accounts and whatever the income, interest income we get from, that proportion has been coming down as a number of total recovery being done on the written-off book . So that number progressively has been coming down. So what is the structural change that is happening that interest income on the return of recovery number? Why that ratio is falling?
That is not the interest on return of account. Basically, that is the interest on the NPA account as well, which is recovered. So whenever the settlement is happening towards the principal amount, and if recovery is coming through settlement, then interest recovery will be less. And if recovery is through without settlement, in the sense if part amount is paid by the borrower, then that will be adjusted towards the interest. And if the recovery is coming through the SARFAESI actions, then again it will go towards the interest. But since in that case, what is happening actually, if you see, the recovery is getting delayed. So the bank has also decided to go for some OTS settlement. It is the best recovery mechanism where the recovery percentage of recovery is also good.
So instead of waiting for a long period, we are going for the settlement and where the recoverability is better. So that is where the interest income on NPA is coming down. However, still bank is working on that for improving that income also.
But just correct me if I'm wrong. Like this interest income recognition from the recovery would include the return of as well as the NPA. It will not be only the NPA.
Ha, it is. In case of the return of whatever the income is added in return of also, you don't get the 100% recovery. Once the 100% recovery will happen.
Yeah, just hold on.
See, there is a difference. If you recover interest from a running account, it will go to other income. If you recover interest from an NPA account, it will go to interest income.
Correct. Because why I'm asking is because in [crosstlak]. Just last question, ma'am.
Okay, sir.
Just last question. Because in absence of all these non-recurring numbers, the ROI is looking quite weak. So as compared to 1.25% ROI number last fiscal year, how do we see that number now in this FY2026?
No, so even last year we've given a last year, which is for 24-25, we had given a guidance that our ROI will be above 1%. And this year also, we will aim to have an ROI which is above 1%. That is something that we've also conveyed to our investors and analysts in the Q1 .
Got it. Got it. Thank you so much, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ashlesh Sonje from Kotak Securities. Please go ahead.
Hi team, good afternoon. Sir, firstly on your I see that you have taken savings account rate cuts in the month of July. Can you tell us what is the effective cut in your overall CASA deposits because of this cut?
SA we have reduced by 25 basis points.
Sorry, so you're saying the overall SA rate would be down by about 45 basis points?
25 basis points.
25. Okay, understood. And secondly, if I look at your slippages in the MSME segment, they have remained elevated this quarter as well. Last quarter, you had indicated that they were high because of some logic changes. But they have not declined in this quarter either. Can you give more details?
This quarter, overall slippages number has come down as compared to the previous quarter. But yes, as you say, there is a marginal increase in the MSME NPA percentage has increased from 4.14% to 4.39%. But overall, slippages has come down. And we are able to manage the large corporate also. There is a decline and the retail also, there is a decline. But in MSME also, there is no large slippages are not there. It's nominal slippages has happened only.
Understood. Okay, and sir, on your MCLR linked loan book, I understand that you have taken cuts in the MCLR rate now, but would there be any part of the book which would still be repricing upward in the June quarter?
No.
No, sir.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Gaurav Jani from Prabhudas Lilladher. Please go ahead.
Thank you for taking the question. I just had a question on the yields and related to the kind of sequential loan growth that you guys have seen. So on a sequential basis, we have seen a sharp decline in corporate while retail has grown well. Having said that, the yields have come off by about 25% quarter. So what would explain the sharp reduction of yields despite of a decent growth in retail? And corresponding to that, I mean, there's another component of retail which has been growing pretty sharply. So what would constitute that? That is my first question.
The second question I could not forget, if you can repeat, but let me first respond to the first one. See that 20 odd basis points reduction in yield that you're talking about is basically reflective of EBLR change, which is by the 100 basis points. And as we shared that close to 50% of the loan portfolio is on EBLR, where the path through has been immediate. And in fact, also on the MCLR loan book in phases, till now we have already done 25 basis points of reduction. That is the key reason of fall in the yield on advances. And you are very much aware that in a declining rate scenario, the first impact is on the asset side. And then the lag comes from the deposit side. Second one, can you please repeat?
Yeah, sir, just to hop back on the previous one. So my sense is I agree with you that there'll be a yield reduction because of the EBLR replacing. That will be cushioned by the MCLR change, right?
Cushioned by?
The loan mix change.
Yeah. There has not been significant loan mix change, and that does not happen within a quarter. So if you look at our retail book, RAM book, total, it continues to be around 55-56% of the total portfolio. We are trying to introduce some loan mix change, but that will take some time.
Sure. And sir, your second question was the other part of retail has been growing pretty strongly. A year ago, it was almost half, right? INR 32,000 crore - INR 76,000 crore. So what contributes to this growth?
No, see, some of the gold loan is also happening in the retail loan portfolio. That is what is reflective in the other segment of the retail loans.
Can you quantify the gold book, sir, right now versus a year ago?
Today, we are around INR 83,700 crores in the gold loan book as of 30th June.
What would that number be a year ago?
Closer to that, I think around 84,000 something.
One year back, it was around 70,000.
June 24.
73,000.
June 24 was 78,000 crore. And now it is 83,700.
Okay. Last question, sir. On the EBLR side, right? So we have an immediate repricing. That is T plus 1 or is it T plus 30 or T plus 90? How does it happen so?
No, sir. You can say it is immediate. It's a matter of two, three days kind of thing. Because there is an internal ALCO date and the policy date. That differential could be two, three days. That's the only thing.
Understood. That is it from my side. Thank you so much.
Okay.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vansh Solanki from RSPN Ventures. Please go ahead.
Hello, sir. I have two questions, mainly. The first one on the income side, what is the recovery target from the PSLC for full year 2026? Can you guide us?
Total recovery target for this year is, we have not given the guidance but as I said in my opening remarks also, that the gross recovery for the quarter has been higher than the slippages and this is a continuing trend and we expect to maintain this trend. I also said that the delinquency ratio has come down below 1% and it is again on a downward trend for past many quarters, so I think without giving guidance, you can make out the direction where we are moving.
Okay. And the other one is that if we see the cost to income ratio, it is increasing from the last two quarters. So is there any change? Is it the same as quarter four? I mean, it should be declined because quarter four has some one-off expenses. So it should be declined, but it is still the same and still increasing.
The cost to income ratio, it is also influenced by the net interest income. And since we are already telling that there is an impact on the NIM and the net interest income because of the changing interest rate scenario. Because of that, cost to income ratio has little increased to around 49%. But given the rebalancing which will happen over the period of a year or so, I think we should move back to lower level. But this is greatly affected by the current interest rate scenario and its path through.
Okay. And the last one that you have mentioned, the MCLR rate is cut by 25 basis points, right?
Yes.
So is there any future in quarter two or quarter three? How much do you expect that the MCLR will fall down? Is there any future expectation by management?
See, MCLR is based on the changes in the marginal cost of funds. So expecting that there will be further reduction in the deposit rate if the market scenario permits that. We can expect it maybe over next six months, 25 to 35 basis points, further reduction in MCLR if possible. But it all depends on how the competitive interest rate move in the system.
Okay. Thank you, sir.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rohan from Equirus Securities. Please go ahead.
Good evening, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, I'm not sure if this was given, but if you could share your loan and deposit growth guidance for the current year? And also on the NIM guidance that you have mentioned for 26, you indicated around 20 to 25 basis point decline. Whereas for 2Q, you are guiding for around 10 to 12 basis points sequential decline and then improvement in NIMs. So I was not able to correlate these two guidances.
Yes, see, interest rate, as I said in my opening remarks, that Q1 operating environment was more characterized by the sharp reduction in the policy repo rate, and now that pass-through is happening, so at this point of time, giving any guidance will be a little difficult. For this year, we have not given the guidance so far. Loan growth rate is around 6.8%, but within that, RAM growth is in double digits, and directionally, we expect that this double-digit RAM growth rate should be possible over the next few quarters also.
Sure. And on NIMs?
NIM also, I said that around 20-25 basis point moderation in NIM over March 2025 is expected during the current year.
Sure. And sir, if you look at the HTM portfolio, that can have declined by 9%-10% sequentially. And if I understand it right, after the change that happened on the regulations last year, one can sell up to 5% of HTM. So is that understanding correct? Or if you can explain what is there and what is the outstanding HTM as of June 8?
That is true what you are saying, 5%. But this may be also possible because of the OMOs that the Treasury head explained.
I think you are right in saying that in the HTM book, because of the OMOs, we have participated and we have seen that that profit was there in our book. This is because of OMO. There is a reduction in the HTM book.
Sure. And sir, outstanding year for the result?
Today, my outstanding year I have to make sure it is one minute. 256, 228. [crosstalk] 228.
Hold on. No, no, no, sir. Outstanding year for the results. The MTM gains. [crosstalk] [inaudible] .
It will be around INR 1,500 crores.
1,500 crores. Okay. Sure. Thanks.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sushil Choksey from Indus Equity Advisors.
Good evening, sir.
Good evening. Good luck for the year. My first question is to defend the NIM guidance. Besides RAM, how do you see you will protect your margin? Because I'm sure that low-yielding advances you have shredded, which means government accounts like NABARD, SIDBI, PFC, REC is not of our interest.
Yeah. Y ou see, if you're looking at it, other than RAM also, if you're looking at, we are also having already sanctioned under disbursement stages projects to the extent of around INR 51,000 crores are there, where the projects are going up and the disbursements are happening, which this all will be under the MCLR, which will be giving a better yield for the bank. Number two is we also are in the pipeline where around INR 20,000 crores are there, which are in the various stages of sanction. So we find that this will be always giving a stable income. And that's what I'm saying. Whatever, even if it comes also, what we are doing it, we are only substituting that with the lower advances, actually speaking. Whenever any opportunity comes, we try to run down the lower yield advance.
Sir, our biggest concern in the balance sheet where profit margin or credibility of Union Bank and rise is by strengthening our CASA franchise. And that's the problem which we are trying to address over the last two, three years post-merger. How do you see this will shape up over a period of two, three years? I'm not saying that this year CASA will increase or not increase, but if I take an outlook for FY 2027, 2028, how do you see that we strengthen our measures that we substantially gain in the market?
Yeah. As you know, in CASA, not only now, not today, this one we have been last one and a half years, we have been working on the CASA frontier with so many new initiatives have been taken. We are connecting to the customers who have reduced their balance. We try to recover that. It is on an ongoing basis. There are many initiatives which have been taken by the bank and are going on. We also have 1,500 relationship managers in various places where around each one of them we have been mapped with around 400 high-value clients.
So, we are trying to see that this CASA, whatever it is going to be, their growth for the bank, it should be on a consistent basis and the bank should be able to, in the coming days, they will be able to get more CASA because the problem when we started all these things, the CASA market itself became a little tough and competitive for the bank. But despite that, we are continuing those initiatives and we hope to get many more benefits out of that.
So what is our digital spend likely to be this year? Second is our treasury income. And how are you seeing the FX income which we have shown in the previous 24 months likely to shape up for this year? And what are we doing to strengthen our HR?
Yeah. On the digital and tech spend, this year budget is close to INR 1,500 crores. Last year, we have utilized around INR 1,000 crores. On the HR side, multiple initiatives are underway in terms of employee reskilling, training, performance management, grooming. All these things are being taken care.
On the treasury and.
Treasury part, particularly, Q1 was very different because of the RBI actions and initiatives. That trend, I don't think we'll be able to see in the remaining part of the year. So treasury income should moderate significantly going forward.
The FX income? Which we used to make in the arbitrage?
FX should remain stable around this level.
Do you see that INR 1,250 crores, INR 1,500 crores of run rate still visible over a period of time? I'm not saying from this quarter, but historically, we used to do that number.
Yeah. As of now, I think INR 1,500 crores run rate quarterly would be difficult. Let's see. We expect more from RBI than it's possible.
Good luck to the team and best for the year to come.
Thank you. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we'll take that as the last question for today. I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for closing comments. Thank you and over to you, sir.
Yeah. Thank you very much. We appreciate the feedback from all the investors and analysts. In a very evolving scenario, we continue to monitor it and take the corrective action. We are focused on having a good trade-off between the top-line growth and the bottom line, and we'll continue to ensure that the overall return on assets and return on equity remains strong as we have done in the past. Thank you very much once again.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of Union Bank of India, that concludes this conference. We thank you for joining us and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.