Norske Skog ASA (OSL:NSKOG)
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Apr 24, 2026, 4:25 PM CET
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Earnings Call: Q1 2022

Apr 28, 2022

Carsten Dybevig
Vice President Communication and Public Affairs, Norske Skog

Okay, welcome to this webcast from Norske Skog. We are broadcasting from our Austrian Bruck mill today in our live performance. In addition to the board and the corporate management from Norske Skog, we have visitors from the press, investors and analysts. Today, the Austrian environmental minister will open our brand new energy plant at Bruck. The energy project is part of our long-term strategy, and we are now actively implementing this long-term strategy we have talked about for so long. After the presentation, you will be able to ask questions. Now I will give the word to Norske Skog's CEO, Sven Ombudstvedt, who will give you a short presentation of the quarterly results.

I kindly ask you to turn your microphones on mute, as part of it, a couple of you that haven't done that. Please do that, and the floor is yours, Søren.

Sven Ombudstvedt
President and CEO, Norske Skog

Okay, good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to our Bruck mill. We are very proud to have you all here today who are physically present, and of course you if you follow the presentation online. I will do a short presentation, maybe slightly longer than you're used to in this morning session, and then we will open up for Q&A afterwards. Carsten, if you can turn the page, please. Just to remind you all what Norske Skog is doing. We are obviously still producing paper in the market, which is quite tight presently. I'll come back to what that looks like in a minute.

Obviously, we will also for the ones who are present at Bruck today, you will see the preparation for a conversion, as we are entering the packaging market in the Q1 of next year with product from Bruck. Then, subsequently next year, we will also then open our Golbey mill. A large scale European recycled packaging producer in a year's time or two. We're very excited about the prospects of that segment. Today is also about the energy. You see a small picture of the waste-to-energy boiler, which is now in operation. We will open officially today with the Minister for the Environment of Austria present. Finally, also to remind you that we still have portfolio development projects in the area represented by the CEBICO test plant in Halden.

We have, as you know, a wide variety of other projects which gradually will be more and more meaningful for the company. Just very, very briefly, since we're in Bruck, a short introduction to Bruck itself. The lightweight coated machine, PM4, is just behind us. 265,000 tons of high quality lightweight coated to a good customer base in Western Europe, and also sometimes exported. Recycled containerboard will then come on stream, replacing the present production of newsprint, which will cease in the Q3 of this year. We will eventually then be up to 210,000 tons of containerboard. The RDF, the refuse-derived fuel, 160,000 tons, is received where we do receive gate fees in exchange, and then we will produce steam to our operations.

You will learn much more about that today, at least if you're present physically. There is also a big important part Bruck plays in the local community, both in terms of grid stabilization and district heating. We will then do district heating for the neighboring town of Kapfenberg, just up the road. I think this is an Austrian critical infrastructure for Austria and obviously a very important part of the Norske Skog family. Turning to the Q1 , very, very briefly, you all know about the energy situation in Europe. We can also add the recycled fiber situation, so high volatility and high, historically high pricing.

However, the market has been able to absorb these price increases, and we are able to do what we think is a more normalized EBITDA level of 10%+ margin. The EBITDA report itself is NOK 610 million. That is, however, impacted by the gain on the Albury site of NOK 175 million. If you remember the guidance for the Albury site, we said between 150 and 200. If you took that literally, you would have guessed correctly what the gain was. In terms of the market, as I mentioned, it is a tight market today. We have had significant amount of closures. We will still have closures going forward as we and others are converting into other paper grades. It's also a fact that the Finnish strike has helped the market in the Q1 .

UPM has had its Finnish operations down because of the strike action. UPM is now back to work from late April. However, it takes some time to build up stocks, so we still expect the market to remain tight going forward. Finally, obviously, as we are here, the waste-to-energy facility is in commissioning phase. Running now presently at about 75%, which will then gradually be ramped up as we are in commissioning and we are trying to optimize this. Clearly, the point of the boiler is to reduce the usage of gas and to reduce the CO2 footprint. The financing of the project is obviously done, and the financial performance is now about to commence. I'm not going to spend too much time on the EBITDA bridge per se. This is relatively self-explanatory.

On the right-hand side, you can see that price increases would have amounted to NOK 527, and then the variable cost and some fixed costs ate up most of that. There is still a positive variance, but it is fair to say that the cost pressure is significant also in this quarter. Here you can see why. No surprise to anyone. The electricity and gas prices here, you see the German reference price. It's a significant volatility, and it's also at a relatively high level. Similarly, for recovered paper, we have sort of a short-term stabilization at around EUR 160 delivered. Now, you probably have to pay around EUR 200 per ton if you go in the spot markets.

The pulpwood market is more stable, helped also by very high demand for timber and saw products. This is also one effect of the Ukraine situation, that there is less wood products coming out of Russia and Ukraine, which there is more pressure on the West European timber markets, which means that there is more pulpwood availability for ourselves and other users of pulpwood. Liquidity is quite strong, obviously helped by the return in the Q4 and the Q1 to more normalized profitability and free cash flow. There is also a free cash flow in the quarter, despite the fact that we have also built some working capital in the firm.

Net debt stands at NOK 924 million at the end of the quarter, and then the reported debt-to-EBITDA of 0.8. We highlight the liquidity, which is similarly as at the end of the Q4 . However, we have obviously now spent some more CapEx in the quarter, but we have also received the proceeds from the Nature's Flame divestment. The remaining CapEx on the conversion projects is in the range of NOK 300 million-NOK 320 million, and we have then included a little bit of a reserve for what today is a relatively difficult market in terms of civil engineering and piping as such.

Just briefly on the publication paper, you all know roughly what we're trying to do here, but we have in the quarter been able to operate fully, meaning that we are above the target rate of 90%, and we're also above the EBITDA target of 10%. This remains important for us in order to harvest cash from these operations and in order to finance the conversion projects. Briefly on the segments, the European segment is improving more or less in line with the general comments I've given. Just one brief word on Australasia, which now is only the Boyer mill, and that has also returned to profitability in the Q4 after a very difficult two COVID years in Australasia.

Then also in the Q2 , we have more or less a normalized EBITDA. It's also a little bit seasonal in Australia, meaning that the Q4 is normally the best quarter. Over the year, we expect also here to be above the target of 10%. Paper prices, just a few words. Paper prices are historically high now in nominal terms and probably also in real terms, at least in the near past, where newsprint and Lightweight Coated have increased also into the Q1 . We also see price increases in the Q2 , and we cannot exclude price increases also into the third and the Q4 into the autumn. Of course, underpinned by high operating rates, where we are now as an industry operating at 90+%.

It's also quite clear again in the Q1 that the Finnish strike meant that it was even tighter than possibly it was. I think we are now in a situation where demand is outstripping supply in this segment. Containerboard, as you know, we're then entering this with ramped up 760,000 tons of capacity. Here it should be possible to have higher operating rates and higher margins clearly than what we do from publication paper. It still remains an attractive market. We do get higher capacity out of the conversions than what we do today with our newsprint production. We clearly expect higher margins, and there is a growth rate. We say here 5%, which is the average of the last two years.

That may be sort of 3-4 going forward, but still it is, it seems still an attractive market to us. You can see also pricing has increased here. We have to probably hasten to add that it's also influenced by the fact that a lot of these producers are using quite some gas, and with European pricing, that means that the margins have probably not moved up significantly over the fourth and the Q1 . Also, recovered paper has increased, so this is probably also a reflection of cost increases, but certainly also a tight market. You can see the capacity utilization on the right-hand side there, and it's fair to say that also this segment is producing at full speed today. Just two words on the energy mix.

We have in the past guided that we will have roughly NOK 100 million in terms of gate fee from a fully operational waste-to-energy mill in Bruck. We will reduce gas consumption by about 0.7 terawatt-hours, which is important and clearly needed both for Europe, for Austria, and for the group mill in Norske Skog. Today, we are operating at 70%-75% in the commissioning phase, and we are then working with Valmet, the main supplier, to ramp this up to an optimized production to get full capacity utilization. CO2, just a couple of words. Also here on the right-hand side, you can see the price has seen some volatility in 2022, driven by maybe technical factors, maybe the general uncertainty.

It's coming back up again, and we believe that this market will still benefit from, at least historically speaking, relatively high prices. Important for us, partly because we have CO₂ quotas, and partly because we benefit in three locations from CO₂ compensation schemes. Targets, obviously, to go down even further and to be net zero emitter by 2050. Briefly on the developments, the biochemicals and more advanced bioproducts. Here you can see CEBINA being applied as a spray coating inside a tank, and you can see then the test pilot for CEBICO, which is now operational in the Saugbrugs mill in Halden.

We have then capacity to produce batches, commercial batches, and to produce large test batches for these products into various customer groups, and now it's all about commercialization. Should also mention that the Norwegian government has supported both directly the investment in the CEBICO pilot plant, and also with what is called Green Platform for the general development of the CEBINA and CEBICO. We are obviously happy with that and quite satisfied with the support we receive. Just finally, we are obviously a part of the solution in terms of the Green Deal and the circular economy. We are recycling, and in principle, we're recycling everything we do.

We do not really generate any waste, and the energy mix is getting more and more green and will eventually become fully green and fully without emissions. Just to end the short presentation with a few words on the outlook. The paper market is expected to be tight also going forward. It is tight now in the Q2 . It's expected to be tight for the rest of the year as the demand is still healthy and the capacity closures have taken effect and will still come. As I mentioned, our Bruck PM3 will then exit newsprint from the Q3 onwards. Waste-to-energy will reduce our volatility and the exposure to gas, which is a significant item. Then again, once again, proud to be here today to officially open that facility.

Later this year, and certainly commercially into next year, we will then be active in the recycled containerboard market, which is a large and quite an exciting new market for us. Energy and bioproducts will continue to be developed going through this year and into next year. You will probably see more and more commercial results of the work that we have done now for many years. We will continue to do this, and we also have a vast variety of energy projects which can be bigger and can maybe impact also strategically, particularly the Norwegian mills and maybe the Boyer mill in the medium to longer term. On that note, Carsten, I suggest that we end the presentation and that we open up for Q&A.

Carsten Dybevig
Vice President Communication and Public Affairs, Norske Skog

Yes. There has been no questions from the net, but maybe somebody here at Bruck? Yes, you're welcome.

Christian Yggeseth
Research Analyst, Arctic Securities

Just gonna find the slide here.

Carsten Dybevig
Vice President Communication and Public Affairs, Norske Skog

Maybe you should come close to a microphone. That would be good because we have people on the net.

Sven Ombudstvedt
President and CEO, Norske Skog

You can scream.

Christian Yggeseth
Research Analyst, Arctic Securities

Should I come up there?

Carsten Dybevig
Vice President Communication and Public Affairs, Norske Skog

Yeah, that would be very good for the people on the. Thank you. If you introduce yourself also. Yeah.

Sven Ombudstvedt
President and CEO, Norske Skog

You can stand behind there.

Christian Yggeseth
Research Analyst, Arctic Securities

Okay. Can you hear me fine now?

Carsten Dybevig
Vice President Communication and Public Affairs, Norske Skog

Yes.

Christian Yggeseth
Research Analyst, Arctic Securities

Christian Bastalen from Arctic Securities. I have a question about the boiler, which you say is operating at 75% utilization, I assume, and then commissioning with Valmet until reaching 100%. Does that mean it's operating in quarter to date at 75% and will reach 100% during the quarter? If you could perhaps elaborate some on what you expect, like the average utilization during the quarter.

Sven Ombudstvedt
President and CEO, Norske Skog

Yeah. This clearly is in commissioning. When we say 70%-75%, this is quite normal in the commissioning of this type of installations. This is where we are now, and we have always said that this is meant to be a project which is finalized in the Q2 of this year, and we are now in the Q2 . We have the opening today, but today we are running at 70%-75%. Obviously, we will then optimize with Valmet to get towards a 100% level. I think in the Q2 specifically, you will probably not expect a big change from the 70%-75%. This is sort of a normal ramp up curve. We're probably into the Q3 before you see sort of a 90%-100% utilization.

This is, it's customary, I should say.

Christian Yggeseth
Research Analyst, Arctic Securities

I have a few more if I can take them.

Carsten Dybevig
Vice President Communication and Public Affairs, Norske Skog

Yes, sure. You're welcome. All at once.

Sven Ombudstvedt
President and CEO, Norske Skog

Maybe we should do this as sort of a stand-up.

Christian Yggeseth
Research Analyst, Arctic Securities

My next one is on the prices. You had a quite large average sales price jump more than EUR 100 per ton during the quarter. Just if you could elaborate a little bit more on that sequential development there, perhaps what mills and also to what extent did the price hike here at Bruck that you announced in March contribute to that? I mean, what we should expect from the Q2 and kind of the blended effect from the price hike at Golbey as well.

Sven Ombudstvedt
President and CEO, Norske Skog

Yeah. When it comes to the price increases, you are right that the continental prices are somewhat higher than the, let's call it the Nordic mills today. It's driven by the energy. We have put energy surcharges on the mills. As you recall, in March, we had a short stop there in Bruck as well. Even though we have been successfully implementing significant price hikes, particularly for Lightweight Coated, but also for newsprint, it's still not enough to secure production throughout March. Pricing is still coming up somewhat in the Q2 . But there is probably now, when the Finnish strike is over, there is probably a sort of an end to how much more, particularly Lightweight Coated and the magazine grades can go.

We will still push for newsprint price increases into the Q2 and into the third and Q4 . Probably another maybe EUR 50 a ton or maybe even more, depending a little bit on the energy situation. I think we could easily see sort of an EUR 800 price level in the autumn for newsprint in Europe. There is a positive price effect, but you should probably not expect to see similar improvements as we saw in the Q1 . Also the gas and the electricity is slightly more stable than what we saw in the fall.

Christian Yggeseth
Research Analyst, Arctic Securities

What about the prices in Norway? Could you give some data on that?

Sven Ombudstvedt
President and CEO, Norske Skog

Power prices?

Christian Yggeseth
Research Analyst, Arctic Securities

No, on paper.

Sven Ombudstvedt
President and CEO, Norske Skog

The paper prices to Norwegian mills are sort of following the market clearly. It's true that the Bruck mill is a little bit higher now because of the special situation, and also Golbey is slightly higher, but it's not a big difference.

Christian Yggeseth
Research Analyst, Arctic Securities

Yeah. My last one is on the conversion project here at Golbey. Last quarter you said that it was on time and on budget.

Sven Ombudstvedt
President and CEO, Norske Skog

Yeah.

Christian Yggeseth
Research Analyst, Arctic Securities

Could you reiterate that or give some more comments?

Sven Ombudstvedt
President and CEO, Norske Skog

Yeah. I think we can say that these are broadly on time, on budget. What we have to say is that just recently in the last two weeks, and this is driven partly by the Ukraine and partly by sort of the lockdowns and the effect of the Chinese lockdowns on parts coming out of China, and mainly also the port of Shanghai, which is in a mess now. That means that certain pipes particularly and certain engineering services are in very high demand. We have put in a little bit of a reserve for that to the tune of maybe EUR 20 million over the projects, and that's what we see today. There is, there's obviously a risk as the world is what it is, but we can broadly reiterate on time, on budget.

Christian Yggeseth
Research Analyst, Arctic Securities

Thank you. That's all.

Carsten Dybevig
Vice President Communication and Public Affairs, Norske Skog

Thank you. We have a participant on Teams, Sindre Sørbye. You're welcome to raise your questions or comments.

Sindre Sørbye
Portfolio Manager and Partner, Arctic Asset Management

Yes. Hi. This is Sindre from Arctic Asset Management. Could you just clarify or remind us of the impacts of CO₂ compensations and CO₂ allowances? I think in the report it says that on the cash flow you have now received NOK 290 million from last year. So that's in the cash flow, I guess. In the income statement, is it a quarter of about the estimated compensations and allowances? And have you now officially received allowances for 2022?

Sven Ombudstvedt
President and CEO, Norske Skog

We have not received the CO₂ compensation from last year. That is still something to be received. Just to be clear, the NOK 290 we mentioned is still a liquidity reserve, but it's an accounts receivable, which we will cash in during the Q2 , hopefully. When it comes to the booking of this, we are booking this on an ongoing basis, as you are aware. The CO₂ quotas are not released by now.

Sindre Sørbye
Portfolio Manager and Partner, Arctic Asset Management

Okay. Just on the income statement impact, is it so that since according to your own computations that you annually will as a consequence of the waste-to-energy plant the CO₂, the need for or the surplus will increase? Is it so that in the Q2 you will book, let's say, a somewhat higher impact from allowances than in the first two quarters?

Sven Ombudstvedt
President and CEO, Norske Skog

Yes, indeed. The total effect on an annual basis we calculate to be about 150,000 tons of CO₂, which today we have to buy. We have to buy quotas for the Bruck mill when we burn gas. On an annual basis, this will be 150,000 tons, which we will not have to buy, which means that the net surplus for the group will increase by 150,000 tons of CO₂. That means.

Sindre Sørbye
Portfolio Manager and Partner, Arctic Asset Management

Yeah, that in-

Sven Ombudstvedt
President and CEO, Norske Skog

Yes, it means gradually over time we will see then the effect also in the P&L. We are clearly now as the waste-to-energy is in commissioning gradually, then we will decrease the usage of gas and thus can also book or avoid to pay for the CO₂ quotas in Bruck.

Sindre Sørbye
Portfolio Manager and Partner, Arctic Asset Management

Okay. Finally, you said you have not received payment for the compensation, but have you received the allowances and can I ask if you have divested any of the surplus allowances?

Sven Ombudstvedt
President and CEO, Norske Skog

We have not received them yet, so it's late, but it doesn't really affect too much as we have compared to the past, we have a little bit of a different strategy since this is more important and the prices is higher. We do not necessarily have to sell them or we don't necessarily want to sell them immediately when we receive them, but we have not received them yet.

Sindre Sørbye
Portfolio Manager and Partner, Arctic Asset Management

Okay. Thank you.

Carsten Dybevig
Vice President Communication and Public Affairs, Norske Skog

Thank you. There are nobody else on the Teams raising your hand. Maybe someone here wants to ask a question? No, it's not.

Sven Ombudstvedt
President and CEO, Norske Skog

Seems like it was Christian, yeah.

Carsten Dybevig
Vice President Communication and Public Affairs, Norske Skog

It was Christian, yeah. This concludes this webcast from Bruck today. I will thank you all for participating, and have a nice day to everybody.

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