Good morning, everybody. My name is Carsten Dybevig. I'm responsible for communication and public affairs in Norske Skog. Welcome to a short webinar where Norske Skog's CEO, Geir Drangsland, will present highlights from the last quarter. The CEO and the corporate management are present, and in the studio here, Rune Sollie, the CFO, and Even Lund, the I.R. Manager, are also present. After the presentation, you will be able to raise questions to the CEO by raising the yellow hand in the Teams. Please keep your microphone on mute during the presentation. Geir, the word is yours.
Thank you. Good morning, everybody. Looking forward to have a good reflections with you to discuss issues and the future for our company. I'll do some comments on the presentation, which you probably all have seen already. As you see here on the first picture, it's the bar, on the third bar, you see the medium green is the packaging paper, which is the target for coming years to transform the company from being a publishing, publication paper company to be a diversified company, which also creates income streams from the packaging paper industry. As we see, 2023, 2024, that part of the bar is increasing, so we are very pleased with that. I think we can go to the next.
On the figures, we see that the earnings is negatively impacted by weak markets, as you already probably knows. Still, with these challenging environments, we have made a EBITDA profit in the third quarter of NOK 327 million, which is, I feel, satisfactory that we are, have acceptable profitability with very demanding environments. We see perhaps that paper and containerboard prices leveling out, that we see the bottom of the cycle, perhaps and probably. Let's see for the future, but we feel it's on a very weak levels these days, so probably not being more weakened for the next quarters. The ramp-up of the containerboard machine in Bruck is being completed with success.
Very proud and pleased with the managing, management in Bruck, which has been stabilizing the process of the new containerboard machine with a high, good, stable utilization. Preparations for restart in Saugbrugs is still in the process of cleaning up after a rockslide, and I'll come back to it later for when we could have startup and restart the paper machine number six. The share purchase program has been, so far we have repurchased 6.5 million shares, with a cash amount of NOK 286 million. Yes, you can take the next slide. Here, in a way, just the bars repeating what I just said. We can discuss that later when the Q&A part of the presentation. I think we just go through, Carsten.
As you see, energy prices, the crisis, you see, during the war has calmed down, but still, electricity, gas, more expensive than before the war, so still challenging times there. Paper prices, recycled paper prices has also calmed down. Regarding raw materials, spruce pulpwood prices, as you see on the bar or the diagram on the right side, it's expensive, but we feel that spruce pulpwood will slow down and decline probably during fourth quarter and into 2024. Next. Signs of stabilizing demand, but still significant excess capacity, especially within magazine grades. We will discuss later. If you can just go through that.
Yeah, we will also come back to this, probably the blue diagram, you see the RISI prices, which is in a way a market indicator for achieved prices, but it's actually not the market price. The current market price is around EUR 300, as you see on the orange point on the graph. It's around EUR 300, so that's what we achieve. It's important for us to say that the RISI price is not the market price. The EUR 300, we think also that is at the lower level, which makes it more probably that it could be increased in 2024, more than more reduced. On the... Yeah. Okay.
There you see a picture of the containerboard production line in Bruck, which is very stable. I'm proud of that. Here you see a picture of the rockslide in Saugbrugs. We can discuss later, but still, it's progress on cleaning up rock and removing that to prepare to rebuild the process equipment to start up the production again. Yeah, and here you see some bullet points on the outlook for the future. I think I just end it there, and we go over for Q&As.
Okay. Thank you, Geir, for the presentation. You are welcome to raise questions. I can't see anybody having raised any questions, but yeah, one there.
Hey, Johannes.
Johannes? Yes, Johannes, the word is yours.
Okay. Thank you, guys. Yeah, a few questions. Maybe I'm a little bit short-oriented here, but could you talk a little bit about the moving parts and sort of the earnings component, how we should think about fourth quarter and possibly early next year? I'm thinking about will there be, you know, cost easing? Will there be lagging effects from basically lower prices throughout the third quarter, et cetera, on the paper side and graphic paper side? I have another question later on.
Yeah, it's a diversified picture because we have five mills, and it's not same situation for all of them. We can say for Bruck, the utilization will increase during fourth quarter, and during 2024 it will be probably more up to the targets when we go into 2025. The income stream from the mill in Bruck will of course be influenced by a upscale of income from containerboard. In Golbey, we have re-signed domestic customer deals with especially News Corp, which is a main domestic newsprint producer, with prices which we are very pleased to have achieved, which is increased.
For Golbey, the ramp-up and to rebuild the paper machine from newsprint to containerboard continues during first half. For 2024, there will be no EBITDA contribution from Golbey from containerboard. The production will start second quarter next year, and we're looking forward to start having income streams from paper machine number two with containerboard production at second half year next year. Yeah, it's different situations, which is-
Okay.
The consolidated picture for this will be, in a way. We are in the budgeting process now for the company for 2024, so it's a little complex to give a clear answer to your question.
Got you. But I got the feeling that you're still, I mean, as you said, in the third quarter, you generate acceptable earnings, and that's sort of how you vision the coming quarters, I suppose.
Yes.
Yes, yes. Okay. What's interesting that you said that containerboard prices are much lower than official RISI prices. Could you give us an indication how much of the European sort of production base are EBITDA positive at this stage?
Can you comment on that, Even?
Yeah, I think, very difficult to answer exactly how the other players are performing in terms of the margins, et cetera. Obviously, it's a mixed picture, depending on your cost position. I think the sort of the simple answer is that we've seen containerboard prices being flat for a few months in a row now. That includes both the RISI index price and also the actual market net price that we see in the market, which indicates at least that in terms of profitability, we are sort of at the marginal cash cost level for some producers.
At the current prices, which as Geir said, is sort of the EUR 300-EUR 350 per ton area, it's definitely a very challenging market for a lot of suppliers.
Okay, that's helpful. Thank you.
Thank you, Johannes. I can't see any other hands being raised. Any other who wants to raise questions to the management? Yes, Kristian Spetalen, you may raise your question.
Yes i do. I was just wondering if you could share some thoughts on the recent movements in paper prices both for containerboard and publication papers . To me it seems like they are quite resileint. Given the market imbalance so, and if there were any reports from you this would be appreciated
.
Again, Even?
It's a similar answer as for containerboard. Yes, you are correct. The publication paper market is weak, with a large imbalance. Utilization rates now around 70%, so clearly capacity has to come out. Still, we are seeing flat prices, at least mostly flat prices for the past few months, as you correctly say. Which indicates again then that the marginal producer is sort of at the cash break-even level, and it's very difficult for producers to lower prices further from the current levels.
I mean, yes, they have sort of stabilized at a higher level than what we have seen historically, but although energy prices have come down from the peaks in 2022, they are still at a high level in Europe, and of course, that is a big influence on the production cost. How will the prices develop going forward? The market is weak, which should put downward pressure on prices, but on the other hand, if energy prices are stable going forward, or even if they rise, that will put upward pressure on prices. It's a very difficult and uncertain picture going forward, I would say.
Thank you, Even. Do you have any other questions, Kristian?
No, thank you. I'm good.
Okay. Thank you. Kenneth Sivertsen, the word is yours.
Thank you. Just a quick follow-up on the Saugbrugs. I think you are pretty clear on the presentation here, but any comments around here? Full extent of damage is yet to be determined. Is there anything you want to add on this one? Is there any discussion that you could share with us right now?
First of all, I will say the dialogue with If, which is the insurance company, is very constructive and very comfortable with that. I think during next week, there probably will be some announcement about... To clarify more how the outcome of the process with the insurance company will be, but it's cannot be explicit and specified more than that. We are very comfortable with the dialogue with the insurance company.
Thank you. Just to follow up on the CapEx side, net interest-bearing have increased somewhat, and the CapEx budget for the remaining expansion is, I guess is, I didn't see anything about it, so I guess it's firm. Just a comment on the financial liquidity. You are comfortable on this one, given your current plans?
Yes, we are comfortable with that. We have, I think, actually paid the remaining CapEx in Golbey to finish the rebuild from newsprint to containerboard. It's approximately NOK 900 million. We have paid more than NOK 4 billion already. Most of CapEx is already been completed and paid to suppliers. We had towards Voith, which is one of the main suppliers on the equipment, we have huge payments in third quarter. That, combined with also spending money on repurchasing shares, is explanation for the change of debt, but still in the bank, we have-
NOK 2 billion .
NOK 2 billion in cash, so we feel very comfortable with the liquid situation. So yeah.
Okay, any other questions?
Thank you. That's all, that's all for me.
Thank you, Kenneth. We give the word to Hans Christian.
Thank you. Your utilization rate in the third quarter is surprisingly high, in my view, 89%. Can you comment on that? Can we expect that level in the future as well?
I think that is the Australia that's pulling up the average utilization rate for publication paper.
Yes, uh-
You see.
The Australia was 97 or something, so of course-
Yes
That increases the average. Still, without the volume in Australia is that big, isn't that big, the rest has still a pretty high utilization rate compared with the low market, I think. Do you think it's not that especially? It's fine with me, I just think that it was a bit of a positive surprise.
Yeah, I think the main factor here, as you're saying, is the utilization rate in Europe, and there Saugbrugs PM6 is excluded.
Mm.
The machines, the few machines that are running now in publication paper.
Mm
are running more closer to full utilization. Although
Mm
The market, as we say, sometimes seems that we have some downtime, but I think it's a reflection of PM6 being taken out.
Yeah, right
On the calculation as well as the.
Remaining machines in publication paper Europe is running close to full, not full, but at least at a very decent operating rate.
Also perhaps, Rune, we can add that in Skogn, we have three machines running, which is fantastic site for us. It's even with challenging prices, very profitable mill. Also, we have demonstrated that we could be also competitive with achieving and collecting new customers in Asia. With the good margin, that's the strength of that mill, that they are really cost leaders on mill cost, cash cost mill. That's keeping us also up the utilization. You have any other questions, Hans Christian?
No.
Okay, then may I give the word to Sindre Sørbye. You're welcome to raise your question.
Yes. Hi, good morning. Just briefly, if you could touch on this NOK 77 million Golbey power reimbursement, which obviously is treated as a one-off here, but is that the kind of impact we can see in future quarters, or can you just explain?
Oh, it's a adjustment of previous paid energy prices. It's relates to previous periods where we have received a reimbursement and adjustment of previously paid energy prices in France.
Okay, so it means that, I mean, obviously, it's a one-off this quarter, but that should actually be, have been lower power costs during previous quarters. What's the kind of, let's say, reading into the future quarters?
Well, I think this relates to period, and future quarters will be determined by the energy contracts that are in France.
Okay, okay. Secondly, in Australia, I guess the proceeds from Tasman sale will be recorded also with the gain in the fourth quarter. Are there any, let's say, news or any developments regarding your remaining mill, Boyer?
Not really.
No.
I think we're working on exiting the region, as we have said many times, so there's no news, but it is work ongoing at Boyer to structure it in a way that we can exit if possible. It is, as we said many times, not core business, and it's far detached from the European operations, but there's no news other than the Tasman announcement that we have recently done.
Okay, thirdly, I mean, according to previous conversations, I think this boiler in Bruck is actually now in a separate legal structure. Are you also, let's say, considering any arrangements on with possibly also on the ownership side on that installation?
It's so first step is the separation issue, that we should separate it, and we have a legal structure where we separate the and identify the value of actually being an energy producer in Bruck. Also, it's the industrial part that the two mills is separated from the energy. That's in a way being structured. Step two, that potentially we could transform the value of the boiler into money by selling it. That's no plans for that in the short term, but more like we would have identify income stream that's been generated from an energy production. At that time, it could be transformed to money, but there's no plans for that.
Okay.
Just for clarification, Sindre, it's not in a separate entity yet.
No,
We are looking into.
Yeah
Structuring it, but it's so highly integrated, it's not a straightforward exercise. We are definitely looking into it, and also, as Geir says, about any future plans to be determined.
Okay, okay. Thank you.
"Thank you, Sindre . I cannot see any others waiting or having raised their hands. I guess that means we don't have any other questions right now. I want to thank you all for participating in this webinar and i wish you all a nice day.