SalMar ASA (OSL:SALM)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2021

Nov 17, 2021

Gustav Witzøe
CEO, SalMar

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to this presentation of SalMar's result for the third quarter of 2021. It is with a pride that we welcome you to Senja here in Northern Norway and to InnovaNor, our new harvesting and processing plant, which will also be our new northern headquarters. During today's presentation, Frode Arntsen, our COO for sales and processing, and I will inform about our strategic investments in Northern Norway and the added value that InnovaNor can create for SalMar and not least the region. The presentation of our quarterly result will otherwise follow the same pattern as before. I will present the highlights before our CFO, Trine Sæther Romuld, takes you through the details. Finally, I will give you all an update on SalMar Aker Ocean before we finish with the outlook.

This is the first time we are in Northern Norway to present our results. It is therefore very pleasing that we today can present solid results from our Fish Farming Northern Norway segment. This impressive achievement is the result of a solid biological performance and the hard work of all our employees in the region. At the same time, the good trend continues in Central Norway, where we are delivering exactly what we promised in the second quarter, stable costs and a much higher volume. This is something we are very pleased with. Both our fish farming segments in Norway are delivering volumes as expected with good earnings. In the third quarter, they both achieved an EBIT per kilo of NOK 70.50.

We harvested a record volume of salmon in the quarter, around 50,000 tons, which has also resulted in record levels of activity at our harvesting and processing plant. A lot of hard work has gone into handling the volume and ensuring that top quality salmon is distributed to our customers worldwide. To manage the volume, we have had to harvest salmon at a total of nine different harvesting plants, five of them in Northern Norway. This was a very challenging and expensive logistic exercise, which has had a negative impact on costs and profitability in the quarter. Therefore, I'm delighted to stand here at InnovaNor, which will bring together our harvesting and processing activities in the north and provide substantial gains in efficiency, quality, and reduced costs.

In addition, SalMar, like the rest of the industry, has experienced a general increase in the cost of input factors during the quarter. This had a negative impact on our results. However, what really hit us in the quarter were fixed price contracts to overseas market. Here we have agreed fixed price, including freight delivered to the customer. When the actual freight costs become much higher than planned as a result of the pandemic and the cancellation or rescheduling of air traffic, the segment results are negatively affected, and it was not possible to achieve level of profitability expected and budgeted for. This is a situation we see continuing into the fourth quarter, but we are convinced the trend will turn going forward with a continuing gradually reopening of society and with that more frequent aircraft departures and reduced freight costs.

All in all, this means we are presenting a mixed result for the third quarter, solid from our fish farm segments, a bit lower than expected from sales and processing. We harvested 49,700 tons in Norway in the third quarter and made an operational EBIT of NOK 743 million. This gives a margin of NOK 14.95 per kilo. Including Icelandic Salmon, we harvested a total 52,100 tons in the third quarter and made an operational EBIT of NOK 748 million. This gives a margin of NOK 14.35 per kilo. We are increasing our harvesting forecast for Norway by 6,000 tons to a total of 169,000 tons for 2021 as a whole.

This is due to good utilization of the increased production capacity we have obtained both through the traffic light system and the acquisition of shares in Nekton Havbruk and Refsnes Laks. Including Iceland and our relative share of the Scottish Sea Farms volumes, we expect to harvest 197,500 tons in 2021 as a whole. We expect continued volume growth in 2022. Our forecast is for the total harvest volume of 214,000 tons, an increase of 8% compared with 2021. We expect to harvest 175,000 tons in Norway, 16,000 tons in Iceland, and 46,000 tons in the U.K., including 13,000 tons from the acquisition in Shetland. Our relative share of the U.K. volume will then be 23,000 tons. I will come back to this a little later in the presentation.

First, I would like to give the word to our CFO, Trine, who will take you through the operational and financial details. Frode and I will come back with more information about our strategic ambition in Northern Norway, InnovaNor, SalMar Aker Ocean, and outlook a little later. Trine, welcome.

Trine Romuld
CFO, SalMar

Thank you, Gustav. I will, as usual, start with farming Central Norway. We had a record high harvest volume in the quarter of 34,200 tons, with an EBIT of NOK 597 million, which result in EBIT per kilo of NOK 17.46 . We deliver in the quarter on what we said in the previous quarter, higher volume and stable cost development. This is due to a continuous solid operational performance despite increased biological challenges, in particular related to increased number of sea lice treatments. Spring 2020 has accounted for the main bulk of the volume with a stable biological development, but costs are nevertheless somewhat higher than previous generation. In the quarter, we started harvesting of the autumn 2020 generation with good biological performance.

In quarter four, we expect similar volume and same cost level. We will finish harvest of spring 2020 and continue with autumn 2020. During the period, the segment has experienced good growth and the biological status of the fish in sea is good. Due to strong utilization of increased maximum allowed biomass capacity and our recent M&A of both Nekton and Refsnes, our guidance for 2021 is increased with 3,000 tons to 110,000 tons. Farming in Northern Norway. In Northern Norway, we have harvested 15,500 tons in the period with an operational EBIT of NOK 272 million, which gives EBIT per kilo of NOK 17.53. We are very pleased with the result from Northern Norway. We have lower cost level compared with previous generations.

This is a result of strong biological performance and a solid craftsmanship, which has given solid growth, lower mortality, improved utilization of maximum allowed biomass, and a lower cost level. The cost level is lower despite the result is still affected by high harvesting and wellboat costs when we have harvested at the five different harvesting plants in the period. In comparison, these direct costs are around NOK 1.00 higher than for Central Norway. In addition, we have also indirect costs. Spring 2020 has accounted for the main part of the volume in the period and with solid biological performance. We have also started harvesting of autumn 2020 generation, which has also shown strong biological performance. However, the price achievement is affected by harvesting in August and September, the period with the lowest spot price in the quarter.

Due to the solid biological performance, we increased the expected harvesting volume for 2021 with 3,000 tons. Now we guide our guidance is for the year 59,000 tons. In quarter four, we expect slightly higher volume and costs at the same level. Sales and industry delivers operational EBIT of negative NOK 28 million in the quarter. As Gustav has mentioned already, the result is negatively affected by increased costs related to logistics and especially air freight costs on contracts to overseas markets. In addition, the record high volume has led to harvesting nights and weekends, which increases the time spent on overtime and thus costs.

We are very pleased with how our employees have handled this period with record high volume through our harvesting and processing facilities. In the quarter, we have had the weekly records on the harvesting plant at Frøya, which also impact the sales organization. This also shows why we are looking forward to putting InnovaNor in operation as we have need for large capacity when the salmon is ready for harvest. Despite a weaker result than expected in the period, our strategic belief in local processing stays firm. COVID-19 has shown us how important this flexibility is by making it possible to quickly adapt ourselves and offer the market the products they ask for.

Therefore, we are glad that we can be here today at InnovaNor, where Frode a bit later will give you some more details on what this facility both will give us in SalMar but also in the region. Icelandic Salmon. In Iceland, we have harvested 2,400 tons in the quarter with an operational EBIT of NOK 5 million, which gives EBIT per kilo of NOK 2.00 . In the period, we have continued to harvest from the autumn 2019 generation with stable cost development. At the same time, we have launched our new brand for Icelandic Salmon, where we already see signs for improved price achievement. During the period, we have had the non-recurring cost related to this launch of the new brand, which amounts to NOK 2.6 per kilo.

Through 2021, and especially in quarter three, which is an important period for growth in Iceland, we have experienced lower growth than expected, and at the same time, we have had some unwanted mortality. Therefore, we are reducing our volume guidance with 2,000 tons to 12,000 tons in 2021 from the previous 14,000 tons. At the same time, we are moving parts of this volume to 2022 to optimize the biological performance. In 2022, we expect an increase of 4,000 tons and then up to 16,000 tons in harvesting volume. In quarter four, we expect higher volume and cost at the same level as this quarter. Scottish Sea Farms.

Scottish Sea Farms harvested 10,100 tons in the quarter with an operational EBIT of NOK 80 million, which gives EBIT per kilo NOK 7.93. Biological challenges related to gill health has had a negative effect on the result in the period. We have harvested the fish with a low average weight, something that affects both the cost and the price achievement negatively. In addition, there has been high mortality, which has resulted in increased cost. Due to these biological challenges, harvest volume for 2021 is reduced with 3,000 tons to 33,000 tons. As you may recall, the company announced the acquisition of Grieg Seafood's operations in U.K. in June 2021. We are still awaiting final approval from the competition authorities in U.K., and we expect the verdict to come in December 2021.

As a result of the acquisition, the company expect a significant increased harvest volume in 2022, and then up from 33,000 tons to 46,000 tons. Over to some comments to the P&L and the balance sheet. This is a kind of operational EBIT deviation from quarter to quarter. I will start with a comparison with the previous quarter. First only Norway, which had a decrease in EBIT per kilo of NOK 349 compared with previous quarter. The spot price is lower in the quarter, but due to higher price on the contract portfolio compared to previous quarter, the reduction in net sales price is lower than the fall in the spot price.

Together with somewhat lower cost in the value chain, driven by the solid results, in particular from Northern Norway, this explains the change from previous quarter. For the group, including Icelandic Salmon, EBIT per kilo decreased with NOK 3.70 from previous quarters. In addition to the comments already given, reduced margin from Icelandic operation explained the decrease. Some comments to the P&L comparing quarter three this year to the same quarter last year. We have increased the revenue following higher volume and increased spot prices. Operational EBIT is lower with a lower increase due to higher cost compared to the strong performing generation harvested in quarter three 2020. Also please note that we have the new production tax starting in January 1 this year.

In Norway, that is NOK 0.4 per kilo harvested. Together with the resource rent tax in Iceland, this accounts for NOK 21 million in the quarter. Fair value adjustment is positive due to higher forward prices and higher volume in the calculation. Income from associates is reduced due to weaker margin from Scottish Sea Farms and negative fair value adjustment. Of the interest expense of NOK 45 million , interest relating to leasing amounts to NOK 14 million out of this NOK 45 million. Compared with last year, other financial items is negative. Currency effects, this also gives a negative OCI. In total, group EBIT per kilo is reduced with NOK 3.12 compared with quarter three last year. This decrease is due to higher cost and lower price achievement despite NOK stock is even higher. Balance sheet.

Over to the balance sheet, where we compare with the end of quarter two this year. As already mentioned, we have increased our production capacity through the strategic acquisition of Nekton Havbruk and the Refsnes Laks in quarter three. Therefore, both of these are consolidated from the quarter and explains the main change in our total assets. Combined, this increase is NOK 2.5 billion in total assets. Other investments in the value chain is progressing according to plan. This is the quarter with the highest CapEx investment ever for SalMar. Standing biomass is both higher than in quarter two and same quarter last year. Net interest-bearing debt, including leasing, has increased with NOK 537 million and is now at NOK 5.9 billion.

In total, still a solid financial position with an equity share of 53% and net interest-bearing debt, including leasing versus EBITDA at NOK 1.8 billion. Some comments to the movement in the net interest-bearing debt in the quarter. Start with net interest-bearing debt, including leasing at the end of quarter two. That was NOK 5.4 billion. Then we have acquisition of Nekton and Refsnes, and also including the debt in the company that in total is NOK 815 million. We have investments which is already referred to. Investments are progressing as planned, and the largest investment are construction our smolt facilities, Senja and Tjuin, and our harvesting processing plant here in Northern Norway in InnovaNor. We end the quarter with NOK 5.9 billion in net interest-bearing debt.

At the end of September, available credit facilities was NOK 4.6 billion, something that gives us strong financial flexibility for our strategic investments along the entire value chain. With this, we have come to an end of the operational and financial updates. Before I hand over the word to Gustav again, we have a video we have made showcasing the fantastic areas and the value chain that we have here in Northern Norway.

Speaker 4

Growing up here in harmony with nature, where the sky and sea meet. With extreme winters and summer days that never end. Pure air, cold and clear water, a safe environment, a life in balance. We live in a world and environment that commits, challenges, and inspires us to perform at our very best. For us, everything needs to be on the salmon's terms, and they need optimal biological conditions to thrive. Here, the conditions are ideal. We have a responsibility to minimize our footprint and take care of our local communities. Everything in balance.

Speaker 5

We have always lived off the ocean, in good times and in bad. The lessons learned, we take with us when we're building for the future.

Speaker 4

Grandpa, what about now?

Speaker 5

Many people say that things used to be better. Today, we have more opportunities, less exhausting work, and a safer life, a better foundation for responsible growth with sustainability in everything we do. We supply smolt, have production facilities in the ocean, and process salmon to send all over the world, all in the same region. Now our value chain in the north is complete from roe to plate, and everything we do is on the salmon's terms. At the same time, we contribute to growing and vibrant local communities so that our children and grandchildren can continue to live here.

Speaker 4

In balance with nature.

Gustav Witzøe
CEO, SalMar

Thank you, Trine, for a good presentation. The movie gave us just a brief glimpse of the fantastic place where we engaged in sustainable food production in Northern Norway. This is an area that has everything you need to make a success of SalMar Salmon Farming. Good biological conditions, a deeply rooted coastal culture, a long and proud history of fishing and aquaculture, and strong men and women who are both resourceful and hard working.

SalMar's history in the region dates back to the establishment of Senja Sjøfarm in 1989. SalMar was invited to become a co-owner of the company with effect from 2000, and SalMar became the sole owner of the company in 2006. Over the years, we have greatly expanded the number of production sites and the value chain here in the north, with the result that SalMar is now the largest aquaculture company in Troms and Finnmark County.

This has not happened by itself. It, in the past two years, SalMar has invested over NOK 4 billion in Northern Norway. In a hatchery in Tranøy, in sea farms in Troms and Finnmark, and now in a harvesting and processing facility here in Klubben in Senja. These investments have given us the capacity to produce over 33 million smolt in the region and harvest expected 59,000 tons this year. This is 30 times more than the 2,000 tons we managed when we started up in the region back in 2001. It has been a fantastic journey. It is only now, 20 years after we started a journey in Northern Norway, that we have finally closed the circle by putting InnovaNor into operation. We have created a complete value chain in Northern Norway. InnovaNor has become an amazing facility.

Each year, it will have the capacity to harvest 75,000 tons per shift and a capacity of 30,000 tons per shift on the value added side. By closing the circle, we have also created a cost efficient structure for our operation here in Northern Norway. Together with a dedicated workforce, the stage is set for future good performances. The foundation has been laid for continued success with excellent environmental quality and financial results to come. In this way, InnovaNor underlines the straight ambition we have for future growth in the north. Frode will have the pleasure of giving you a more detailed presentation of the facility a little later. The investments we have made here in the north over the years are a perfect example of how SalMar holistic focus along the entire value chain underpins our success.

As I mentioned before, the Senja 1 and Senja 2 hatcheries will give us a capacity to supply around 33 million smolt. At the same time, the facility's flexibility will strengthen our ability to deliver on our mantra high quality smolt of the right size, transferred to the sea at the right time, and adapted to the condition at each site. We already have 19 sites in Northern Norway, from Troms in the south to Finnmark in the north, which mean that we can supply the best salmon produced at site with good environmental conditions. We aim to strengthen this in the years to come, and we are working on project to put additional sites in operation throughout the region. At last but not least, InnovaNor marks the completion of the value chain here in the north.

As a result, we will, to an even greater extent, be able to offer our customers the product they demand while maximizing value creation, not only with respect to each individual fish, but also to the ripple effects we send back into the local communities in which we operate. At the same time, we are continuing to invest and grow in central Norway. This includes investing in a new hatchery in Tjuin, phase one, which will gives us around 20 million smolt from 2024. Going forward, we will also be utilizing synergies between SalMar, Nekton, and Refsnes. In addition, SalMar is eager to seize new opportunities in all the segments and district in which we operate. All this is only possible as long as we have the right people with us.

Employees who have a passion for salmon, as well as the operational and strategic focus, the knowledge, and the mindset to make the most out of the fantastic opportunities that lie ahead of us. To underline the importance of operational focus, we must step back in time. Two years ago, in the third quarter of 2019, we stood on stage and presented some really weak results from Northern Norway. Results we were very extremely disappointed with. At that time, we said that having the lowest cost and achieving the best biological performance is in SalMar's very DNA. We promised to take steps to come back with better results. That is why we are delighted that two years later, we can clearly see the result of the work. Our employees have made a truly heroic effort and succeeded in reversing the trend.

This is not a result of a single segment in the region. This is something we have achieved together as a team. Everyone from the hatcheries to the sales office have worked together and identified solution that step by step have made us a little better today than we were yesterday. The result of all these small steps is perfectly shown in the table behind me. Important KPIs are showing considerably improvements with the arrows pointing in a more sustainable direction. Fish welfare has been enhanced and survival rate is increased. We have reduced the feed factor, thereby reducing the amount of resources used. The volume harvested has increased as a result of better utilization of our MAB capacity, which combined with an unwavering focus and on expenses, has led to a significantly lower level of costs.

These results clearly show that we have taken back the position we want to be in, having the lowest cost and the best biological performance. The results of all the things I have mentioned is a 33% cost reduction compared with Q3 2019, while the volume has risen by a massive 31%. The results also demonstrate that our operational focus is crucial for good financial performance. If we succeed on the biological front, the financial results will follow. At SalMar, it is the salmon that decide when they are ready for harvesting. When they are ready, we aim to be perfectly positioned to maximize the value from each individual fish. This demands efficiency, quality, and sustainability for our customers, which also requires capacity on land to handle our growth ambition at sea. That is precisely why we have built InnovaNor.

It's now my pleasure to hand the word over to Frode Arntsen, COO of our Sales and Processing activities, who will give you more detailed presentation of our new northern flagship.

Frode Arntsen
COO for Sales and Processing, SalMar

Yes, hello everyone, thank you, Gustav, and thank you for giving me the opportunity to come here and present InnovaNor. Most likely, it's not every day that you see a person dressed like this, when it comes for presenting the quarterly results. How am I dressed? Well, like I'm ready for effort and some hard work to get InnovaNor up and running, and maybe also a picture for SalMar and its operational focus. As already mentioned, it has been a long journey before we can stand here, but now we are here at Senja and in the final stages of putting our new harvest and processing plant into operation. It is with great pleasure and pride that I can finally wish you all a very welcome to InnovaNor.

I think I speak for everyone in SalMar when I say that we truly have looked forward to this moment. Finally, we have our own harvest and processing plant in northern Norway. In this way, we have a complete value chain here in this region and can increase our value creation, quality, and flexibility when it comes to handling our northern fish. In my department, sales and industry, we have the responsibility of receiving the salmon when it's ready for harvest, maximize the possible utilization, and ensure that all our customers in all corners of the world get the best possible product on their dining table. It is an impressive facility. This has been constructed here on Senja. Everything built for future sustainable growth and increased value creation on each salmon.

InnovaNor is a large factory with 20,000 sq m and a harvest capacity of 75,000 tons of salmon per shift and 30,000 tons of VAP processing per shift per year. The infrastructure is built for even bigger volumes. As you probably know, we plan to harvest 59,000 tons in Northern Norway this year. With this plant, we are also building for the future and for the further growth in the region we in SalMar have strong beliefs in. The plant is rigged with state-of-the-art equipment for both harvesting, processing, packaging, freezing, including different storage capabilities. At the same time, a separate box factory and a system for handling and utilizing the offal has been built in direct connection with this factory, ensuring optimal utilization of the salmon and minimizing our environmental footprint.

The facility is also our new head office in northern Norway, ensuring operational advantages and short decision lines, all to make sure that everything we do today, we do a little bit better than yesterday. In short, we are very proud of the facility that has been built here, and we have made plans for how the plant can be expanded as we continue to grow our business here in the north. It is a building, as I said, built for the future. InnovaNor is an important key for us to succeed in the value chain and enable us to grow further. It gives us a number of advantages in respect of biological risk. Because we have a large harvesting capacity, it gives us the opportunity to receive large volumes in a short time.

This means that we can optimize harvesting to when the salmon is ready to be harvested. This also means that we reduce risk and consequences if we should have any challenges that makes it necessary for us to harvest the fish on short notice. Logistics. The last period has shown us how demanding logistics can be when we have a record high harvest volume to handle, and we have harvested at a number of different facilities. This will be significantly easier with InnovaNor in operation and enables us to optimize logistics and with that increase quality and reduce costs. In addition, we have built a box factory next door, which means that we can reduce transport and increase flexibility. For products, one thing we have seen during COVID-19 is how important value added processing is.

This has always been a strategic focus area for us at SalMar, and with InnovaNor we can develop this further. The factory will be built with both post- and pre-rigor VAP capacity from the start. Going forward, we can develop our VAP capabilities so we can offer exactly the products the market and customers demand, something that is a huge strategic advantage for us. Greenhouse gas emissions. Local processing here in Norway is crucial for us to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions related to transport. At SalMar, we already see great effects of this through the processing we do in Northern Norway. In fact, 46,000 tons of CO2 were reduced in 2020 because we have such a large processing activity on the coast here in Norway. By getting InnovaNor in operation, we can strengthen this number even further. Handling of the offal.

At the same time, it is important that we take care of all the offal after our harvesting and processing activity. Therefore, we have built a reception center for the offal, enabling us to utilize this to make other salmon-based products. It is great for the circular economy, and it's great for the environment. In short, this facility is very important for us to further develop our value chain here in the north in a more sustainable and efficient direction. To put it in short, it gives us a robust platform for further sustainable growth in the northern region. SalMar will also be one of the largest employers at Senja. Together with the expansion of the smolt facility at Senja, we have already employed more than 250 employees in the region.

More than 100 here at InnovaNor, and in total more than 330 persons in both Troms and Finnmark. Over time, we have plans to grow this number even further in connection with our increased activity in the north. It is not just us we depend on when we use the facility. Local suppliers will be used for a number of services which a facility of this size requires, a win-win for all involved. With us becoming one of the largest employers at Senja, we are aware of the social responsibility that comes with that. For SalMar, it has always been important to support the local communities in which we operate. For SalMar, it is important that our employees thrive in the workplace, and it is also important that they thrive in their free time.

Therefore, we will continue to increase our support to the local community, both in terms of sport, culture, and other activities. At the same time, we will strengthen and continue our collaboration with educational and research institutions. This to gain even more knowledge for how we can develop this great industry going forward. We are excited for what the future holds here in Senja. For us, putting InnovaNor into operation is just the beginning. It is now the real work starts. Together with all our employees here in the north and in the rest of the organization in SalMar, we will make sure that we utilize the facility and get all the effects we want in respect of quality, flexibility, economy, sustainability, and social responsibility. As Gustav said, this is only the beginning. With that, I will wish us all a good luck, and thank you very much.

Gustav Witzøe
CEO, SalMar

Thank you, Frode, for a great presentation. I wish you and your team all the best in the work ahead, for this is just the beginning. When we stood on stage in August and announced our partnership with Aker and the establishment of SalMar Aker Ocean, we said that we expected to close the deal in the first quarter of 2022. But we have already done it. It has been a fascinating and learning-filled process. The fact that we have closed the transaction so quickly shows as clearly as possible the enthusiasm and effort that both Aker and SalMar are channeling into the project. SalMar Aker Ocean is intending to be in the very spearhead of development in offshore aquaculture.

As you know, the first site permit application has already been submitted to the authorities for the world's first open ocean aquaculture installation, the Smart Fish Farm. When we have received a final response to the application and clarification of the regulatory framework, we will be in a position to make a final investment decision. At the same time, we are working on a new semi-offshore installation that we expect to make an investment decision on as soon as possible. I can promise that Aker and SalMar together will contribute all the competence and resources necessary to succeed on the journey. A new and exciting branch of aquaculture is just starting to emerge, and we are looking forward to watching it grow under SalMar Aker Ocean's guided hand. For over 30 years, sustainable food production has been SalMar's hallmark. This effort continues.

SalMar aims to be the leading operator within traditional aquaculture as well as fish farming in more exposed areas and offshore in the open oceans. For SalMar, all are equally important, and continued sustainable development and traditional aquaculture will be vital to our success offshore. SalMar therefore has strong growth plans for our traditional aquaculture going forward. As I said before, we are increasing our forecast for the volume of salmon we expected to harvest in Norway this year by 60,000 tons to a total 169,000 tons. Next year, we expect further growth in all regions. In 2022, we will harvest 175,000 tons in Norway.

At the same time, we will harvest a total of 16,000 tons in Iceland, and that's 33% rise compared with this year and are on track to exploit the potential afforded by the company's licenses. We expect Scottish Sea Farms to harvest 46,000 tons in 2022, an increase of 39% following the acquisition in Shetland. All in all, this means that SalMar expected to harvest 214,000 tons in 2022, including our relative shares of the output in the U.K. This represented a volume growth of 8% for our traditional fish farming operation in 2022. I will conclude this quarterly presentation by looking forward. As previously mentioned, we will continue to focus on the things we can influence and do something about.

We will optimize conditions so that people and salmon can succeed and thrive. Good financial results are the product of good biological performance, which comes from operating on the salmon terms. We will therefore continue our strategic investments in pursuit of sustainable growth on land, along the coast, and out to sea. With the establishment of SalMar Aker Ocean, we are now ready to realize the potential in the open oceans. Our aim is to build a globally leading offshore aquaculture company. In addition, we now expect to harvest a total of 197,500 tons in 2021, 6,000 more than previously guided. We expect to harvest 169,000 tons in Norway, 12,000 tons in Iceland, and 33,000 tons in Scotland this year.

In 2022, we expect to harvest even more, a total of 214,000 tons, including our relative share in Scotland, a year-on-year increase by 8%. For the fourth quarter of 2021 overall, we expect higher volumes, stable cost level. The contract rate for the fourth quarter and for 2021 as a whole stands at around 25%. SalMar, we take an optimistic view of the future, and recent experience has shown us just how strong the salmon market is. We expect moderate growth in supply in 2022. Our job is to take the steps needed to strengthen us today and make us even better going forward.

The different investments and project we have discussed today are clear examples of just that. We will continue to focus on the solution, not the problem. To conclude, I would like to issue an invitation. As you may remember, we had planned to stage a capital markets day in June 2000. Unfortunately, we had to cancel that event due to coronavirus restrictions. However, we really want to show you all our value chain and present our ambitions for the way forward. I'm delighted to invite you to SalMar next Capital Markets Day, scheduled for the 22nd and 23rd of June 2022. All the details have not been concluded, but please hold the date. We will distribute future information and details of how to register your participation at a later point of time. With this, we have come to the end of our presentation.

Our next quarterly presentation will be in February. Until then, we hope all of you stay safe and healthy and continue to eat a lot of salmon. Thank you for your attention.

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