Okay. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the presentation of the results of Komerční banka for the first quarter of 2022. Today, it's the 5th of May, 2022. Please let me remind you that this call is being recorded. Our speakers today will be Mr. Jan Juchelka, Chairman of the Board and CEO of Komerční banka. He will be followed by Jiří Šperl, Chief Financial Officer, and Didier Colin, Chief Risk Officer. Also with us today are Mr. Miroslav Hiršl, Head of Retail Banking, Mr. David Formánek, Head of Corporate and Investment Banking, and Mr. Margus Simson, Chief Digitalization Officer. If in case you will have questions for them later.
As usual, we will start with the presentation part, which will be followed later by a questions and answer session. I have now muted your microphones, and I would like to ask you to keep your mics muted for the presentation part. Of course, I will ask you to pose your questions later on. That's it from me for the beginning. Now I would like to hand over to Mr. Juchelka. Jan, please.
Thank you. Thank you, Jakub. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for being with us. It's my pleasure, together with my team, to be in front of you and present the results of Komerční banka Group for the first quarter of 2022. Despite rather murky atmosphere in the society and very tragic war which is happening in Ukraine and other headwinds, Komerční banka is delivering strong results which are based on the external environment in Czech economy, which is based on very strong business activities and which is based on very well-diversified business model of this third-largest bank in Czech Republic. Let me say, and I will ask Jakub to move us to page number 4, that all the important parameters are. It's not moving.
All the important parameters are showing strong growth. On the financing side, we are up by 8.1%. The loan book has a value of CZK 750 billion. Client's deposits went up to CZK 1 trillion, more than 3% on year-over-year comparison. What makes us even happier is the loan book assets under management, which grew in very dynamic way by 7.6% on year-over-year basis. We will go a little bit deeper in all of these categories in a second. The revenues are up by almost 28% and landed at the level of CZK 9.5 billion. OpEx is under control.
There is one contribution to a regulatory fund which will be displayed and explained, sorry, by the CFO, Mr. Jiří Šperl, in a minute. Very high quality of assets brought the cost of risk at the level of 15 basis points. As a result of everything, the net profit of Komerční banka for the first quarter is represented by the number of CZK 3.5 billion, and it's up by 76% compared on year-over-year basis. The first quarter of 2021 was one of those where the economy and economic activities were frozen by governmental decisions. Nonetheless, even in comparison with other European banks, we see that the net profit contribution grew in very strong manner.
We are showing to you, to investors, to analysts, the ROE at the level of 11.3% and return on assets on 1.1%. Komerční banka remains one of the most capitalized or the highest capitalized banks in Europe. For Tier 1 at the level of 19.8%, capital adequacy, 20.2%. We have, we as the management board, advise the general shareholders meeting to pay out the dividend at the level of CZK 43.8 per share. General shareholders meeting approved that number. We are coming back. We are bringing back Komerční banka to the payout ratio of 65%, payout from the net profit.
In parallel with that, we don't slow down on the implementation of strategic plan KB 2025. You will see some of those parameters in next couple of pages. One of them, bringing the bank to more heavily and more intensively to the digital space. It's represented here by two key numbers, almost identical numbers of active KB Mobile Banking users and KB Key authentication tool, which both exceeded 1 million users. We can move to next page, please. Here we will pay attention to our corporate citizenship role. In all of those three categories of ESG, the environmental, social or societal and governance categories, we have made significant steps forward. Let me start with environment.
Komerční banka is on the way to achieve carbon neutrality in 2026. As part of it, our decision to purchase 131 electric cars from Škoda Auto is being implemented now, so we have first approximately 60 cars in the fleet already. In parallel with that, we are building and installing the charging systems. We will have 170 charging stations across the country until 2026. The greenhouse gas emissions went down by 32.5% in 2021. In parallel with that, our contribution to the positive change was supported by financing eligible and compatible with sustainable principles.
In totality, it is almost CZK 30 billion on our balance sheet, which is up by 78% on a year-over-year comparison. The newly contracted volume in Q1 landed at CZK 5 billion. We are concluding also strategic partnerships with energy companies. One of them, which we announced already last time, is the common initiative with ČEZ ESCO and our leasing subsidiary named SG Equipment Finance with the product aiming for installations and financing of photovoltaic systems on the roofs of buildings of entrepreneurs and small and medium-sized companies or households. In the societal part, In Czech Republic, we are currently hosting more than 300,000 refugees, mainly women with children. 100 of them found their shelter in our premises.
We have collected CZK 5 million from the employees. Employees contributed actively into the total of CZK 20 million donation, which went to Red Cross or directly to the support of those families who found their home here in Czech Republic. Charity activity through Nadace Jistota continues also supporting single parents and other people in need who are facing currently mainly increased costs of housing, including energy prices and others. On the side of governance, Komerční banka has played a role, I would say, on behalf of the Czech banking market when paying out the money from Guarantee Fund to the former clients of Sberbank Czech Republic.
Currently, or at the end of April, we were at the level of 70,000 depositors already receiving the money out of 121,000 entitled depositors. Also, the General Shareholders Meeting approved all items of the proposed agenda, including financial statements and dividend payment, as I said. We have further increased the level of quality of our methodology related to AML and KYC, which is of a high value in the current world of sanctions and embargoes, as well as enhanced cybersecurity protections and fraud prevention measures. In parallel with strengthening the rules for lobbying principles and keeping, and let's say, supporting the political neutrality of our company.
We can move to next page, which is describing the main macroeconomic indicators. The GDP grew by 0.7% in first quarter 2022 and by 4.6% on a year-over-year basis. They were mainly driven by household consumption and fixed investments. We take it seriously as expression of rather positive view of corporate clients who are asking for loans for working capital facilities but also investment loans. The households obviously are taking the benefit from using the saved money also for consumption in the first quarter of 2022. The manufacturing and construction remained somehow affected by supply chain disruptions, even though many of those pains were already solved before the 24th of February when Russia invaded Ukraine.
This particular event brought back a high level of uncertainty and volatility. Labor market, though, remains very tight in Czech Republic. The unemployment is almost nonexistent. Nominal wages went up by 4% in the fourth quarter. It ends currently with a peaking inflation. There is a strong push across the sectors and across the segments on increase of salaries. So there might be another, I would say, inflation effect created by that in the future. Speaking about inflation, we hope we are a few weeks after the peak. In March, we read the number of 12.7% from the Statistical Office. We are expecting the numbers coming for April, which might be even higher.
Nonetheless, hopefully, the peak is behind us. As of March 2022, Czech koruna was stronger by almost 2%, and on a year-over-year comparison by 6.7% and found its equilibrium currently around CZK 24.4 per euro. Czech National Bank continues in the rate hiking cycle, so currently we are finding ourselves in the environment of 5% of the base rate. Expecting today a decision from Czech National Bank, potentially with another hike by 50 basis points. We will need to wait for the result, and the result might come during our call. We can move to next, please. Business performance. What is happening currently on the digital front?
We have more than 1 million clients using the KB Key. We have more than a million clients using mobile banking of Komerční banka, which is making us, in relative terms, the largest bank among our peers. Digital wallet use and the tokenization of cards remains a trend. Transactions initiated and processed through either mobile banking or other digital channels are still at the level of 98%, and only between 1% and 2% is provided through paper payment orders.
The share of sales by digital channel is growing on the side of consumer credit, also thanks to the launch of our new format of consumer lending through digital channels, either websites or mobile banking, and either from KB or from ESSOX, the consumer lending subsidiary. We can move to next one. I'm skipping a little bit those awards which were collected by Komerční banka during the first quarter. We need to move more to this analytical part of the paper. The lending went up by 8.1%, as I have already mentioned, driven by retail, and it's mainly mortgages.
Mortgages, a little bit counterintuitive, but we are still processing the demand which was initiated and received in last quarter of 2021. Not so bad growth of consumer lending and still very active corporate sector or corporate segment. Speaking about businesses, there was a huge dynamism represented by 7.5% growth on a year-over-year basis, mainly driven by corporates, including ESSOX wholesale and factoring products. When we go to housing loans, one can see that the requests and the demand dropped down rather visibly.
When you see the graph on the right-hand side, the bottom part of the page, you see that we are sort of coming back to the normal level before the mortgage fever, which was the main event of 2021. Despite this very dynamic growth of financing, our net loans to deposits ratio remains in very solid 72.8%. Liquidity coverage ratio is exceeding 150%. We can move to next page. I am very proud of showing you the tombstones of important and remarkable transactions happened either in Czech Republic or outside Czech Republic, but where the Czech-rooted or Czech-headquartered companies were expanding to other countries.
This is the case of SAZKA Group, where SAZKA, as you may know, has won the tender for a British national lottery, which will be operated by them in the future. Komerční banka is part of group of banks supporting our clients in that, in this achievement. We can speak also about CPI. CPI, which is growing to the size of one of the largest real estate players, where Komerční banka, together with our experts from Paris and London, from Société Générale, was providing the service of joint global coordinator and book runner for CPI. I may continue one after the other, but I will not. I will just mention one interesting and very sympathetic element here.
We see municipalities, regions and municipal companies asking for investment loans, providing the fact that they are pre-financing the future investments in infrastructure and other relevant areas of their development. Hopefully, the European money will also help here to balance the uncertainty. Next page is dedicated to deposits, up by 3%, assets under management by 7.6%. People and companies are moving money from current accounts more to the return-bringing savings accounts or term deposits. What is very sympathetic for us is the fact that mutual funds are growing by double digit and very close to 20%. Pension schemes remain at the pace of very solid 5% growth. We can move to the next one, and next one is already dedicated and taken over by Jiří Šperl, our CFO. Thank you, Jiří.
Thank you very much, Jan. Good afternoon, everybody. Not surprisingly, the very good business results have translated also to very good financial results. Let me summarize key figures and the right drivers. The net profit after tax ended at a level of CZK 3.5 billion . It is by CZK 1.5 billion more year-on-year. The drivers are clear from the traditional upper left chart. The main one is the net interest income, adding almost CZK 1.9 billion year-on-year, supported by the dynamic business growth. At the same time, also the environment, mainly market rates contributed, of course, positively.
The other components of the top line, I mean, fees and commissions and financial operations contributed positively as well, but obviously a bit less than the main source of revenues, I mean, net interest income. Costs are under control, though they're growing faster than the previous years. On the other hand, in the high inflationary environment, and at the same time transforming the bank, this should not be a surprise for anybody. Just to remind, it is still significantly below the inflation. This is the case despite another important, and Jan was touching that, important and to say unwelcome guest, meaning continuing increase of the regulatory charges. Here I'm talking mainly about resolution fund charge because Deposit Insurance Fund charge hasn't been announced yet.
As you can see in 2022, I mean regulatory charges added more than CZK 250 million into our cost base year-on-year. All in all, the revenues year-on-year are up by roughly 28%, costs by 10%, even including the regulatory charges. This is of course leading to a very significant positive jaws. Cost of risk is also slightly better year-on-year by roughly CZK 300 million , and Didier will comment on that in a minute. How we did in terms of trends is visible in the right upper chart, using two words, not bad. Q1 this year is a seventh quarter in a row when the revenues are growing. That's the red bar in the chart.
Costs in this chart are seasonally higher due to the fact that we are obliged to post full- year regulatory charges already in Q1 fully every year. That's famous IFRIC 21 standard. Profitability indicators at the bottom of the slide naturally follow this evolution. We are at 11.3% on return on equity. If we linearize regulatory charges, it would be even more 13.7%. Here maybe to remind our strategic target to get above 15% ROE by the end of 2025. Let's move to the balance sheet. Well, some of you might remember that our KB Change 2025 program is a growing strategy with a capital G. This is also visible at the balance sheet dynamics of this slide.
Total assets are growing by almost 9%. Compared to the previous quarters, the deposits are not the main driver here, as we consciously continue delaying the pricing related to the huge growth of the market interest rates, and thus still have a priority of designing for the profitability aspect. That's true that currently we are discussing internally some adjustments up in order to stay competitive and stick to our market shares. On asset side, there is a visible growth of loans, plus almost 9% already commented by Jan. The liquidity surplus has been placed mainly to the Czech govies growing relatively significantly, and the rest into the repo loans with CNB. I'm commenting year-over-year evolution. Next slide, please. Capital. It is still very strong.
The capital request at the end of the quarter, first quarter is at 20.2%. That's true that, quarter-over-quarter, I mean, since the beginning of the year, it dropped relatively significantly by roughly 1.1 percentage points. On the other hand, it is also true that the huge majority of this drop is related to the methodological changes, more concretely to the changes related to a new regulation on LGD model calibration. The impact of these one-off changes into capital was almost 100 basis points in Q1 this year. It is important to say here and now that these changes have been expected or planned, if you wish, and do not change anything in our capital projections, including dividends management. They remain fully intact.
Last comment on this slide, neither retained earnings nor dividends from 2021 profit are part of the capital position at the end of March this year. Will be included in Q2 after formal approval by general meeting, which happened roughly two, three weeks ago. As already mentioned by Jan, and of course, validated the dividend. It was CZK 8.3 billion of roughly CZK 45 per share. Naturally, this will improve the capital adequacy by exactly 35% of 2021 profit. If I should quantify the impact in absolute terms, we are talking roughly about 90 basis points. Please, next slide, which I think is net interest income. Yes. NII is , I would say, the strong dynamics continue. Let's start with the year-on-year evolution.
That's the bottom right chart. Clearly, the main driver here is income from the deposits growing by very strong 44%. The majority of this growth is linked to the fact that the bank can simply reinvest the deposits for much higher rates than was the case last year. Of course, also delaying of deposits' repricing I was mentioning before. It is also worth to mention that IB, Investment Banking, added into NII growth solidly as well. That's the blue part of the chart, year-over-year growing by roughly CZK 500 million . In terms of interest income on loans, it is also growing year-over-year by solid 5%.
That's true that it is rather flattish last three quarters as visible on upper right-hand chart, as the spreads here somehow continue to erode, and it is mainly the case for retail loans. What I mean is both consumer loans and mortgage loans. By the way, this trend is also visible at the left bottom chart where we are showing evolution of average market rates on new Czech-denominated loans, whereas you can see the increase, jump of the market rates. Let's use example of three-month PRIBOR, which is red bold line, growing significantly.
You can see here that business loans, pink line, is basically following this evolution, while retail loans, and it is the case mainly for consumer loans, that's the upper line in the chart is also growing, but incomparably slower than, for example, business loans. Last comment at this slide is related to net interest margin. Increasing significantly as well, following the evolution. No surprise. Year-over-year it is growing by roughly 50 basis points, and getting to 2.22%. We are expecting that this let's say growth of NIM is gonna continue even in upcoming quarters.
It's a question whether at the end of the year we will get back to pre-COVID level, which just to remind, used to be around 2.4%. Definitely we are getting closer, and the question is whether we will be there fully. The next slide is related to fees and commissions. I would say that the bank is or group, better said, is also generating a positive result here. Year-on-year, it's almost 9%, driven mainly by the transaction fees. It is +16% year-on-year. And also fees from cross sales, important part of our fees structure. These are growing by 13% and again, we are targeting and expecting that the growth is gonna continue even in upcoming quarters and years. Also specialized services, financial services delivered a strong result.
Couple of sentences about these three key parts of fee income. In terms of transaction fees, Jan was touching the point. There is slightly, partially also kind of base effect as Q1 last year, there was almost full lockdown. Of course, naturally the quantity of transactions increased, number of transactions increased. In terms of fees from cross selling, also touched. There is more or less linear correlation with the growing of our asset management, and here it was driven mainly by mutual funds. Specialized financial services not growing year-on-year so significantly. We are talking only about 2%, but at the same time, it's, and we perceive it as a very strong result.
In other words, whatever above CZK 300 million per quarter, we consider as above our run rate. Financial operations. Again, a very good quarter. Again above CZK 1 billion, and again, probably the best quarter at least since the last three years. What I like here very much is also the structure of the growth. So let me refer to the bottom chart. Here you can see that the growth is mainly year-on-year growth, so supported by more stable FX income from structural book. So that's the blue color, blue part in the chart, growing by half or 51% year-on-year. That's true that this was also influenced by the lockdown in Q1, but not only.
It was a very positive volume effect due to recovery in traveling, but at the same time also by increasing of spreads, FX spreads in this area, as the FX volatility mainly after Ukraine crisis increased a lot. Capital markets, that's the red part, is also strong, supported by strong hedging activities of our clients, again, in a volatile environment. That's true that year-on-year it's declining a bit, roughly 9%, but it's also fair to say, to add that this decline is also influenced by the fact that our IB a bit reshuffled the structure of their income from financial operations to NII, as I was commenting at NII slides two minutes ago. Finally, OpEx. Traditionally under control, but as I was mentioning before, growing faster than we and you got used in past.
It's almost by 10% year-on-year. If we, however, put aside a significant increase of the regulatory funds charges, growth would be at the level of 5%, and that's, I would say, given the inflationary environment, we perceive it as a rather good result. Now commenting this 5% growth, the main drivers are related to the activities related to our transformation, mainly building NDB or new digital bank, if you wish, that transposed into your guide, and it's mainly in IT cost area and stuff around. Also, the depreciation that is growing by sort of 7%, reflecting activation of first elements of mentioned NDB.
The personal expenses are at roughly 3% year-on-year, influenced by progressive increasing of the base salaries through 2021, and also, let's say, paying higher variable part of the remuneration year-on-year, given the very good 2021 performance of the bank. At the same time, FTE is still going direction south. Having said this, also cost income ratio improved year-on-year, that's the bottom left chart. There is a visible drop from, let's say, 60s level, 58.5%, to 50s level, 50.3%. Of course, this is still somehow distorted by resolution fund charge. If we put it aside, cost income would be at the level of 37%. That's DOI. Now Didier will deep dive to asset quality and cost of risk. Didier, please.
Thank you, Jiří, and good afternoon, everyone. The asset quality for the first quarter can be captured in probably three main messages. The first one is the continued favorable trend of our default rate across all client segments and retail loan product categories, and basically returning to their pre-COVID levels. The second important takeaway is that this resilience was further confirmed by the low and also favorable levels of portfolio migration dynamics within the non-defaulted portfolios. The third is a new development that we saw in the context of the war in Ukraine, and you can see it on the top chart when looking at the exposure classified as Stage 2 sensitive under IFRS 9.
We had a small increase from CZK 53 billion to CZK 60 billion. This increase is, in fact, the first impact from the war in Ukraine, and it is concentrated on less than five client situations. I will comment that later on in the cost of risk section. As a result, when looking at our usual risk indicators, the S2 ratio remained flat quarter- on- quarter at a level of 8%, with a provision coverage ratio Q-on-Q slightly above 4% and stable as well. The NPL exposure remained flat in absolute terms.
In relative terms, the NPL ratio continued to moderately decrease and reach 2.4%, while the provision coverage ratio was maintained above 50%, which is above the regional average, which is in the range of 45%. Now, if we look at how this translated into our first quarter cost of risk on the next slide, I'm going to comment these 15 basis points of cost of risk level successively for the non-retail portfolios and for the retail portfolios. As you can see, the non-retail portfolios generated a level of 24 basis point or slightly above CZK 200 million. This is in fact the structure is made of four main components.
We have two in the sense of net creations and two in the sense of net release. I will start with the first one going in the sense of net creations. In amount, the largest one, near CZK 500 m illion, or CZK 475 million precisely, were recorded as a first impact from the war in Ukraine. As I just mentioned, it's very concentrated on less than five client situations. This is what is important. It is the result from a comprehensive portfolio review, which we initiated in January. This portfolio review would in fact be maintained as a permanent exercise in the coming months and quarters.
What is important to keep in mind is, again, that this impact was very concentrated, so we don't see deterioration on the portfolio dimension, if you will. The second component in terms of creation is for CZK 100 million, and we booked, in fact, with this amount, new reserve on our automotive portfolio for its non-defaulted part, taking into consideration this persisting level of uncertainty, particularly impacting this automotive industry. These two creation components were partially offset by, first, the continued strong level of our recovery activities on the corporate side, where we had a positive impact onto our cost of risk for nearly CZK 200 million.
Second favorable element into our cost of risk is that we reversed the reserve we booked in the last quarter, in Q4 of last year, on our COVID III loan portfolio exposure. You probably remember that back then I explained that this portfolio had started to enter its bullet amortization period. We initiated a line-by-line review of this portfolio just to make sure that it would enter bullet amortization period in a resilient way, and this was confirmed, and following this review, we recorded a positive impact of more than CZK 100 million into our cost of risk for the first quarter.
In addition to these four components, we can also say that the credit risk profile of our non-defaulted corporate exposure, excluding this Russian-related part I just mentioned, continued to marginally improve in terms of its credit risk profile quality, and this generated another more or less CZK 50 million in positive impact into our cost of risk. Now, I'm going to the retail portfolios, and it will be an easier story. As you can see, we recorded a level of 7 basis points for the first quarter, and this level was essentially made of a CZK 90 million complement to our so-called interest rate hikes and inflation reserve, which we booked in the fourth quarter of last year.
If you exclude these components, in fact, our retail loan exposure continued to generate some residual level of net provision reversal, which again further confirmed the resilience of our retail credit risk profile and also the good performance of our loan collection setup. I will finish with one word on our cost of risk guidance for the full year of 2022. As you will remember, we issued in February a guidance for 2022, which was stated at a maximum of 15 basis points, and we decided to revise upward this guidance to 20 basis points. This guidance, newly revised, in fact, takes into account the following key assumptions. The first one is that we expect some further provision creations on our Russian-sensitive exposures.
Second assumption is that our default rate on the other corporate exposures, so excluding this portfolio, was set at the level of 2021, which is a conservative assumption given the trend I just mentioned. On the retail portfolio, we made the assumption, or we took the assumption that our cost of risk position will be near a net zero cost of risk. This position is, in fact, quite strongly supported by these interest rate hikes and inflation reserves which we booked last year, and to some extent at the beginning in the first quarter of this year. Last point is some partial and possible releases of our reserves, IFRS reserves, which we booked in the last two years on our non-defaulted corporate exposures. Now I'm going to hand over back to Jiří . Thank you.
Thanks, Didier. Finally, outlook. Probably let me start with a very fresh information. Right now, CNB informed the markets that they increased the repo key policy rates by 75 basis points, which was not expected by the market at all. It's much more. The prevailing opinion or observation was only 50 basis points. Of course, this will have some other impact into performance of KB. I would say rather positive. Of course, we need to analyze. Now back to other, let's say, outlook adjustments. As already commented by Jan, mainly due to dramatic events in Ukraine, macroeconomic outlook has been downgraded compared to three months ago.
What is, however, important to mention is that the expected impact on our performance seems to be rather limited. From my perspective, it is another proof of the resilience of the economy on one hand side, and also the bank in a difficult environment. Having said this, it is still expected that the market is going to grow more or less comparable speed as indicated or guided three months ago. Though there are some very slight adjustments down given the circumstances. In terms of our targeted positioning on this market, it is not being changed at all.
What I mean is, that the intention and target clear objective is to continue gaining market shares in loans, which was the case for last two years, and at the same time to maintain market share in deposits area. In terms of financial performance, I would say that with one exception we are confirming three months old guidance, i.e. high teens growth on the top line, driven mainly by net interest income, as was already the case in the first quarter. Mid- single digit on cost side, and of course thus generating material positive jaws. The only exception where we change our guidance is cost of risk. As mentioned earlier, for the year, i.e. from maximum 15-20 basis points level.
Of course, in terms of risk for the guidance, and no surprise, there are two points, basically, further escalation of the situation in Ukraine and COVID return. Well, this is the end of the presentation, and it's my pleasure to pass the word to Jan for the concluding remark. Thank you.
Well, again, we have made a presentation of the results. We are very proud of delivering these results in front of you. It's time now for your questions, obviously. Thank you.
Yes, thank you. Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen. We have concluded the presentation part of the meeting. Now, if you have questions, it would be great if you could use the raise hand icon on the upper part of your screen. If you are connected through telephone, I will invite you for your questions later. We have actually received the first question already through the chat. It's from Kamil Stolarski from Santander, and I think it quite nicely maybe sets the context for our further discussions. Kamil was asking, how would you assess the probability or timing of recession in the Czech Republic and whether we observe any material imbalances? If you can maybe, Jan, take this one.
I think it's more for Jiří. Our macroeconomists have picked up from the variety of scenarios the one which is named mild recession. Over the year, we might drop as a country into recession. If I'm not mistaken, they spoke more about the half year, let's say, somewhere between second and third quarter, balancing back to some mild growth at the end of the year. I don't know, Jiří, if you want to add a few words on this one.
I think you covered the question. Maybe to add only one thing that that's true that in second half of this year it is expected the recession, a kind of mild recession. At the same time, it's expectation and baseline of our macroeconomists that the economy is gonna recover next year. What they are suggesting or belief in is growth by almost 3%. Here, supported very much by net export and fixed investments, while inventories will deduct a bit year-on-year in 2023.
Thank you. The next question will be from Gabor Kemeny from Autonomous Research. Gabor, please.
Yes. Hi. Thanks for the call. Very well timed with the CNB rate hike. Could you please comment on what impact you expect from this? Yeah, I think it's safe to say bigger than expected rate hike on NII. Specifically, if you could comment on your deposit costs, what trends do you see there? It seems that something has started to move. There is a 50% increase, I think, quarter on quarter in your term deposits. If you could comment on what evolution you see in deposit costs, that would be interesting too. Another question is on the deposit insurance costs. I think you mentioned that it has not been announced yet. What possible impact do you see from the Sberbank Europe default, and what's the likelihood that the insurance payment could be higher than what you estimated? Thanks.
Thank you, Gabor, for the question. Let's start with the first one. Reported faster or more than expected. Maybe let me say a couple of sentences about our sensitivity. Probably some of you remember that our sensitivity in past was rather significant. Roughly three to six months ago, we are talking about CZK 1 billion for parallel shift of our yield curve, income or impact for upcoming 12 months. The same for just the short-term move, one hike around CZK 150 million-CZK 200 million . The sensitivity decreased relatively significantly during the last three to four months, reflecting a drop in non-stable, which means sensitive, because these deposits are sensitive.
Non-stable deposits at the end of 2021, and this is still continuing. Currently, we are talking about the impact for parallel shift roughly is CZK 0.5 billion-CZK 0.7 billion. For one hike by 25 basis points, it's around CZK 100 million- 120 million . One hike extra would be around, I don't know, CZK 50 million. It is not since the beginning of the year. We are talking about CZK 30 million. This was a surprising extra add-on versus the expectation. This is one thing. Other point was related to the cost of our deposits. Already from Q1 presentation, it's very visible that current accounts are. It is visible that there is a very significant shift.
To be frank, it is even a bit faster than we were expecting three to six months ago. Of course, it is related to the fact that since that time, interest rate increased further. It is motivating clients to, let's say, switch from current accounts to time deposits. We are expecting that this trend is gonna continue. At the same time, I don't think the same or comparable speed. Hopefully we are at the end. Also what will help is, I was mentioning during my presentation that currently we are discussing increase of paid deposits. No way we are going to pay on unpaid deposits because that's basically become a standard on the market.
For paid deposits, mainly in retail area, that's what we are going to do now, which normally should slow down the switch. Third point was related to DIF, Deposit Insurance Fund. Maybe I didn't say that fully correct. We didn't get the announcement. At the same time we accrued for that. That's what we do every year. In line with the regulation of accounting standards, we are trying to simulate and to guess the best estimate for that. That's what we did and created off the top of my head, roughly CZK 150 million. The potential variances versus the announcement, which we are expecting during May, at the end of May, we will post into Q2.
There is maybe even more important point which is related to the fact that Sberbank CZ is in liquidation now, which could stimulate the Deposit Insurance Fund or CNB, because CNB is this decision maker, will even increase this contribution because the fund is below needed thresholds. There were basically three scenarios. The first one was that CNB would ask to fill the fund as one shot, which would be really huge impact for all banks. The other scenario was that they ask the banks to, let's say, contribute more by 1/7, because the fund has to be fulfilled within seven years, six or seven years. In first year. Which for KB would mean the impact, extra negative impact at the level of CZK 300 million.
Third alternative is that they will basically keep it as it is, because it's very probable that the net proceeds coming from the liquidation of Sberbank Czech Republic will more than cover these amounts. Of course, we could talk about time, how long it will take. Given the very preferential treatment of Deposit Insurance Fund, because there are some liabilities towards the state in first taxes and stuff like that in first stage, but in the second stage, it's already a Deposit Insurance Fund then. I hope I covered all your questions.
Yes, you did. Thank you. Just to make sure I understand, which scenario did you accrue for the deposit insurance?
Good question. The most likely, which is current level.
Got it. If this is scenario two, would mean an extra CZK 300 million?
Correct.
Okay. Got it. Thank you.
Thank you, Gabor. Thank you, Jiří. Ladies and gentlemen, again, if you have a question, please, use the raise hand functionality. If you would like to ask a question through a telephone, please, unmute yourself and ask your question now.
Maybe I can use the time, Jakub. There is one question on the chat, coming from Peter Priisalm from Avaron, if I may. Do you expect any pressure from the government to increase deposit rates as we have seen in Poland? We are in a very intensive contact with both the Czech National Bank and the government, discussing various topics of the role of banks. When we speak about the government, obviously, or the role of banks in the current situation, any point related to pressure on increase of deposits was not recorded. We cannot exclude the politicians might bring some ideas, and for discussion. So far, it didn't happen, neither in the dialogue nor publicly through media.
Thank you. We have another question. Actually, we are getting questions through the chat now. For Mr. Tavorský, when do you expect second part of the dividends to be paid?
Okay. I will take this. I would say we stay consistent. After lifting problems related to dividends due to COVID in past three years, we started to release the surplus of capital. There were already two steps. First one in December 2021, CZK 4.5 billion. Then May 2022, roughly CZK 8.3 billion. Too, we still keep a surplus of equity. We define it as roughly CZK 10.5 billion, which means roughly CZK 55 per share. We'll utilize it once possible, i.e., either returning it to our shareholders or as we are always saying, use it for M&A transaction as it is part of our KB Change 2025 strategy.
I'm confirming again that the simulation we were presenting to you roughly three months or six months ago, if you pay the mentioned CZK 10.5 billion in second half of this year, we still stay safely within our management buffer. As I said three months ago, we already submitted stress test results to our regulator to CNB. There is a relatively heavy process, including collegial validation. We are expecting they will get back to us at the end of summer, so it maybe autumn. If everything would go good, I can imagine that the dividends could be paid at the end of October, November.
Thank you. The next question is from Michał Konarski from mBank. What is your expectation for base rate in 2023 and 2024? What would be the impact on NIM?
Okay. That's probably again for me. Our baseline scenario before today's meeting of CNB was that they would increase to 5.5%, and basically they will keep this level about 10-12 months, by the Q1 next year. As the inflation is expected to go significantly down in the upcoming years, to follow with rates as well. 2023 would be a year when the CNB is expected to decrease repo rates to the level of 3%-3.25%, and then keep it in 2024 and beyond the stronger cycle level, which is close to 3 percentage points. Of course, this will have impact into the net interest income. Let's forget double-digit growth, but we believe that the organic growth of the balance sheet will be able to offset this impact. In other words, we are still expecting that the net interest income is going to grow even beyond record 2022.
Thank you. The next question is from Andrzej Nowaczek from HSBC. He's asking whether this increase in minimum capital requirements by 2 percentage points in the next 12 months, he means the countercyclical buffer requirement increase, and especially the high total capital ratio hurdle. Does this cap your payout ratio at 65%+ maybe CZK 10.5 billion extra from 2019 and 2020?
No. The answer is no. Our capital management is kind of prospective, so of course, we could take into account a current position, but at the same time, all important inputs in that, meaning the growth, second, P&L forecast, third, expected requirements on capital. Of course, also all the, let's say, methodological changes. It seems that we will be able, based on current or recent capital simulation, to stick to 65%, as was the case pre-COVID, and as we returned to the sustainable dividend payout last year. Again, take it, please, rather like, let's say retrospective statement. No, we are not issuing any commitments on future dividend payouts.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question via telephone, please press star and six on your keypad, and this should unmute yourself, or of course, use the raise hand functionality. I think we don't have any further questions in the chat, so I'll wait a few more moments for questions through the platform. Okay, it seems all questions have been asked and answered. I would like to hand back to Jan for the conclusion.
All right. Thank you, Jakub, for organizing this call. To all of you, we are again expressing our thanks for sharing your time with us. We're also thanking you for the attention you are paying to the shares of Komerční banka. We obviously remain at your disposal for further questions should they come after this call, and we will keep our transparent communication ongoing, and we are looking forward to seeing you in a quarter from now. Again, thank you very much. We are looking forward. Bye-bye.
Thank you. Bye-bye.
Thank you.
Thank you all.
Bye.
You can now disconnect. Thanks a lot.