The Commercial Bank (P.S.Q.C.) (QSE:CBQK)
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Apr 30, 2026, 1:13 PM AST
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Earnings Call: Q4 2023

Jan 25, 2024

Mohamed Farhan
Acting Chief Financial Officer, The Commercial Bank

Net profit of QAR 3 billion for the year in 2023, up by 7.1%, compared to the same period last year. The overall growth in profitability was driven mainly by a combination of higher operating income, higher recoveries, and improved performance from both our associates, UAB and NBO. As you can see, operating income up by 3.7% year-on-year on account of higher fees and other income, mainly. Net interest income decreased marginally by 2.4% year-on-year, mainly on the back of decreasing net interest income in Alternatif Bank, our subsidiary in Turkey. We have managed to improve our net interest margin to 2.8% for the year, up by 10 basis points as compared to prior year, 2022.

Quarter-on-quarter, of course, net interest margin increased to 2.9% in Q4 2023, from 2.7% in Q3 2023. We expect NII to grow in 2024, with NIM expected to be maintained closer to these levels. Fees and other income grew by 21.9% to QAR 162.2 million year-on-year, mainly due to high investment income in CB and FX and trading income coming from our Alternative Bank in Turkey. In terms of operating expenses, costs were higher by 26.6% year-on-year, mainly due to the impact on one-off expenses in Turkey and the inflation environment, while CB continued to invest in automation and the digital space. As we know, Turkey's in a hyperinflation situation, as both staff costs and general were up year-on-year in Alternative Bank.

Additionally, Commercial Bank continues to invest in technology and enhance operational infrastructure and product capability to support our business growth. As a result, group cost-income ratio increased to 26.2% compared to 21.5% last year. We believe the cost-to-income ratio will continue at similar level due to hyperinflation in Turkey, where minimum wages have been further increased in 2024. Moving on to net provisions for loans, it increased by 0.3% to QAR 990.7 million from the year end of 30 December 2023, compared to QAR 987 million in 2022. Net cost of risk for loans decreased to 105 basis points during the year in 2023, compared to 121 basis points in previous year, mainly due to strong recoveries during the year.

We continue with our conservative approach on provisioning and expect cost of risk between 120-135 basis points for 2024. Overall, net provision decreased due to recoveries in other financial assets. As of 31 December 2023, NPL ratio stood at 5.9%, compared to 4.9% in the same period in 2022, primarily due to a decrease in loans and advances exposure during the year. Despite higher operating expenses and the impact of hyperinflation in Turkey, as you can see, net profit improved by 7.1% year-on-year. On the balance sheet side, group loans and advances were down 6.7% to QAR 91.5 billion.

The main reason for the decrease was Alternative Bank, whose loans decreased by QAR 2.8 billion due to Turkish lira depreciation and focus on loan underwriting. At domestic level, the decrease was partly due to public sector, large corporate repayments of our loans and advances. However, it is important to highlight that we have seen an increase in lending on the retail sector year-on-year. Customer deposits decreased by 8% to QAR 76.5 billion at 31st December 2023, compared to QAR 83.2 billion, the same period in 2022. The decrease is mainly in current and call deposit balances. Our capital remains strong. CET1 ratio and capital ratio stood at 10.7 and 14.9 respectively, compared to 11.6 and 17.3 in the same period, 2022.

As we mentioned before, we have restated our financials to show employee incentive Phantom Share Schemes. The new items have opined that the underlying derivative to hedge the employee share scheme to be treated as a deduction against the capital, although there is no legal ownership of the shares by CB. Please note that this is only a temporary situation, and when the scheme matures and the capital reduction will come down, and as a result, the ratio is expected to improve. Also, for full year 2023, net profit of QAR 3 billion post distribution has not been capitalized in the above 14.9% capital adequacy ratio. So despite this, our capital ratio remains comfortably above the minimum capital requirement. More of our associates' performance, NBIO and UAB continue to deliver better performance.

Both NBIO and UAB have seen an increase in their profitability, where our associate contribution grew by QAR 72 million, 30.3% year-on-year. Commercial Bank is working closely with both these entities in the execution of their strategies. In terms of our Turkish subsidiary, Alternatif Bank, reported a net profit of TRY 467 million in 2023, compared to net profit of TRY 123 million in 2022. The results were, in fact, impacted by the hyperinflation and hyperinflation accounting that resulted in non-cash net monetary loss of TRY 2.349 million in 2023, versus TRY 932 million in 2022. Overall, the impact of hyperinflation accounting is TRY 1.468 million in 2023 across various lines, including the non-monetary loss absorbed within the operating income, cost, and the tax lines.

CB will continue to report under IAS 29 till Turkey continues to be classified as a hyperinflation economy, and accordingly, there will be an ongoing impact to the profit and loss of CB. Please note that Altern atif Bank represent approximately 5.3% of the overall balance sheet, and in terms of profitability, their contribution at concert level is only 2.8%. So that's the overall summary of our results. I will now hand it back to Zubair, who can go into our question and answers.

Operator

Thank you, Rehan. We will now start with the Q&As. If you wish to ask a question, please use the raise hand feature, or you can send a text message to us directly. I will pause for a moment to see if anybody asks a question. So we have our first question through text from Abdullah Ali Shah. We see a number of large restatements related to derivatives, consolidation, and provisions. What are these, and is it normal to adjust retained earnings?

Speaker 6

Yes. In fact, the adjustment on the balance sheet were two-third fold. One is the capital deduction on the employee share scheme was put through QAR 1.1 billion, and on the other hand, there was a deemed loan that they had to take on the other liabilities. In terms of the restatement of the 2022, it has gone through the opening balance. So in terms of the derivative scheme that we had on the premium, on the forward, we have taken a positive impact in 2022, and with the help of KPMG, our auditors, we have agreed to put that back into the P&L under the opening balance instead of restating the 2022.

That plus, the KPMG also has advised us to take the cost involved with the scheme as a P&L hit, and for 2022, that also was put through the opening balance. So these are basically adjustments that we have agreed with KPMG and in line with the normal adjustments that they would go through.

Operator

Thanks, Farhan. I again request, if there are any questions, to use the raise hand feature. I'll pause again. Oh, there's one more question on the chat. This is from Marc K rombas. Can you elaborate on the employee share scheme and its cost to the bank and shareholders?

Speaker 6

So, basically, the employee share scheme, it's a share option to the employees, and they will get the value of the share, the difference in the value of the share, based on share price at the start and at the end of the scheme. This was, as both Farhan and Joseph have mentioned, hedged through a derivative. So, in terms of accounting, the accounting of the employee share scheme follows IFRS 2 accounting, and the derivative, we used to follow derivative accounting, but with the restatement, it now goes through the equity. So, that's exactly how an employee share option scheme would get accounted. There is QAR 1.3 billion related to total return swaps. Are these related to employee plan?

Operator

They're not.

Mohamed Farhan
Acting Chief Financial Officer, The Commercial Bank

These are not related to employee plan.

Operator

We now have first question on the screen from Salome. Salome, please go ahead, unmute and introduce yourself, and ask your question.

Salome Skhirtladze
Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence

Hello, thank you for taking my question. I'm Salome from Bloomberg BI. My question is about the fee income for Q4 and probably for 2023 compared to 2022. Because of the adjustment you mentioned, it's a bit hard to understand what has happened to the fee income. And please comment on this part. Thanks.

Mohamed Farhan
Acting Chief Financial Officer, The Commercial Bank

Okay. Just to highlight you on the fee income from the employee share scheme, in fact, is only QAR 63 million, but the significant increase on the fees and other income come from two folds. One is our investment income has improved year-on-year, and the number two is in Turkey, the treasury money market under FX desk has actually performed very well, taking advantage of the volatile Turkish lira situation in that country. So combined, those two has reflected a significant increase under the fees and other income.

Salome Skhirtladze
Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence

Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

Okay, there's one more on the chat. This is from Fatema Al-Shaker. Can you shed a light on Turkey operation, NIM, and asset quality?

Speaker 6

... On the asset quality, sir, I must say that their NPL ratio is at 1.5%, significantly a drop year-on-year, because and also on the coverage ratio, they are around 200% on total. So their book is somewhat cleaned up. I think now their focus is looking at the transaction banking and improve their performance for business growth.

Operator

Okay, the next question is from Danah Al-Othman. The reduction in loans came mainly from Stage 1 loans. Will this impact Cost of Risk? If so, what is the guidance for 2024?

Speaker 6

Can you just repeat the question again?

Operator

So the reduction in loans has come mainly from Stage 1. So what is the impact on cost of risk, and what is the guidance of 2024?

Joseph Abraham
Group Chief Executive Officer, The Commercial Bank

Okay. We expect the Cost of Risk to be within our guidance range that we have given. Yes, when you see a reduction in Stage 1 loan outstandings, you will see because of the balance is coming down, the Cost of Risk slightly going up. So that is inevitable, but when we build our balance sheet and when the loan book grows, we will see this having it should be not reduction in the impact. I would say that, you know, basically, as you said here correctly, it's mainly due to the government and public sector loans being repaid, and a lot of them are obviously Stage 1.

That doesn't mean that there's a deterioration in the bank's credit quality, in the sense that I think what is there, we have identified in the system, and we're-- that's why we're conservatively provisioning at 120 basis point per annum. That's why we said that will continue for 2 or 3 years till we actually finish the run of our legacy loan book. If you see the post-2017, 2017 onwards loan book, the, the cost of risk is running in our books at 40-50 basis points. So that I think will come through after 2-3 years, that, you know, that benefit of that, as we have cleaned up the legacy loan book. And that will, that's, I think, a positive that we are looking for.

The second piece is as we build out our retail book, we will also diversify, you know, into small ticket, diversified, individual lendings, where we have seen some positive growth, and we see that also as an area of growth for the future. So I would say that just a reduction in Stage 1 does not automatically mean a deterioration in the overall quality of our loan book. It's just as I said, the government has a lot of surplus money, running a budgetary surplus, and they're deploying it at these high interest rates. They're deploying it to reduce, you know, the costs to the entities.

Operator

The next question is from Ankit Mittal, from HSBC. Three questions: What is the outlook on loan growth for 2024? Outlook on NIMS in 2024, and how many interest rate cuts does the bank factor?

Ankit Mittal
Global Research, HSBC

I would say that the outlook for loan growth is, we are saying 2%-4%, which is in line with the GDP growth, and that's our view. There's a rationale behind this. The first is that we don't know how much more government and public sector could be paid now. So because the government will continue to run budgetary surpluses. So that's the sort of a factor which we can't predict entirely. But however, we are also being very careful in our incremental loan growth. As I said, at these high interest rates, with the amount of leverage that some of the entities have, we are choosing our borrowers very carefully, so that we don't compromise risk in a chase for revenue, because that always comes back.

For us, our price is, you know, when we get to that 60 basis point cost risk, which we see as a few years down the road, so we're not going to compromise on that. In terms of the NIM, ironically, you know, there's always the view that rising interest rates mean that NIMs improve for banks. That's true up to a point, but once you cross a certain threshold, particularly in markets in the Middle East, where there's a lot of individual negotiation, there's an inability to price on the full aspect of your cost increase. So I think that is...

So I actually see that if the interest rates start reducing, and frankly, we are not factoring in any interest rate reductions in the immediate term, short term, maybe in the third quarter, I might be completely wrong because many people much smarter and experienced than me have got that wrong, too. But our fundamental view is that managing our cost of funds is going to come from how we issue our bonds. Now, we had a lot of bond which matured last year, and that's why we consciously delayed, because we felt we were at, you know, we were at a very high point in terms to lock in five-year bond issuances at those prices. And I think that has worked out to an extent.

So this year, we will strategically and consciously phase out our raising of funding through EMTN issuances towards this year and probably next year. And hopefully, we should get some of the benefit of lower cost of funding in that benefit. So our outlook is that NIM, I think if you can maintain our NIM and maybe show a slight improvement, that will be amazing. Plus, we are building out our transaction banking business, which will help and support it with low-cost funds. So that's, for us, maintaining the NIM will be a good achievement in this environment, and if possible, increase it, but I would say we will try not to see it reduce. And 2.8 is one of the highest net interest margins in the country banking sector.

Operator

The next question is again, Salome, on the call. Please go ahead and ask your question.

Salome Skhirtladze
Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence

... I want to ask about the cost of funding part. Please, could you specify, given the guidance you just referred on NIM, how do you see the cost of funds developing in 2024? For example, there was a significant drop in deposits, and I see a drop in CASA share as well. So how do you plan to manage the funding side? Thanks.

Joseph Abraham
Group Chief Executive Officer, The Commercial Bank

I, I think regarding the, CASA drop, that was a very year-end situation. You know, a very year-end situation. We saw a number of public sector low-cost funds move to other entities. So, and we've actually seen it, build back already. So but for us, as you know, you're going to always, as your CASA gets very large, then the movements of CASA also get very large. So that's something that we must get used to in terms of when we're working on improving our connectivity, so we can anticipate and get prior information when these large movements happen. But we as we continue to grow our, CASA business, because we've won a number of mandates, and we continue to win mandates from public sector entities, which will help to build our CASA.

Our retail bank is also providing a new engine of growth for CASA. Last year, we added 75,000 new account openings. That's it. And these people then get their salary credits. So for the first time, we cost QAR 3 billion in monthly salary credits as a bank, and that's a core focus. You know, as we do more in the retail side, we build it up. And I think the third piece is being very careful on our bond issues, et cetera, because that obviously has long-term effects on our cost of funding. But that's why I say in this market, maintaining our cost, our NIM, will be our primary objective, and it's done through... I think there's no magic formula. We have to manage all these moving parts very, very carefully.

There's a mix of our currencies that we borrow in, the tenure. But fundamentally, at a business level, it's by building out our retail and the cost of funds, which I think is an incremental new area, and also continuing with the corporate.

Operator

Next question is from. Oh, sorry. Yeah, you're welcome. Next question is from Ankit: How is the liquidity scenario in the banking sector? Do you expect further rebalancing in deposit mix from non-resident to residents? And can you mention what is the NSFR ratio as of 2023?

Ankit Mittal
Global Research, HSBC

In terms of the rebalancing, you know, because if you go back to last year, there was a little bit of pressure. I think one of the rating agencies said Qatar's banking sector is too dependent on external liabilities. So as a result of that, there were a few haircuts applied to non-resident liabilities. We were never at the extreme end. I think the extreme end was about 28% or 30%. We are currently at 10%. 10%-11% of our deposits are from external sources, and these are long term. We don't see any, you know, volatility in these. And these are primarily are Asian. So we don't we think the market is sort of settled. That issue is more or less settled in terms of the adjustment or the foreign currency.

Joseph Abraham
Group Chief Executive Officer, The Commercial Bank

What was the second part of the question?

Operator

The second part is, do you expect further rebalancing?

Joseph Abraham
Group Chief Executive Officer, The Commercial Bank

I think, as I said, I think we are, we are now sort of settled at where the market should be. I think the entire Qatari market is below 20%.

Operator

Yes.

Joseph Abraham
Group Chief Executive Officer, The Commercial Bank

I think the benchmark was UAE, which was at 14 or something, so I think we're much closer to that level now.

Operator

The next question is from Goldman Sachs. What do you think is the solution to the elevated NPL and Stage 2 in the sector? Do you expect any government support to solve this issue?

Joseph Abraham
Group Chief Executive Officer, The Commercial Bank

Look, I think there's some talk that there may be something out there. We don't know. Nothing has been formally said. But if you go back post the financial crisis in 2000, there was some scheme where some loans were taken off the bank's balance sheet. I think with the strong fiscal position of the government and yeah, there may be something in that. But again, like I said, this is just a rumor mill. We don't have anything concrete yet.

Operator

Abdullah Ali Shah again. What is the potential impact of Basel Guidelines on capital adequacy? Is it include in the guidance of 16.5%-17%?

Speaker 6

It is included. It is included. In fact, there is also opportunity for us to add our retained profit every quarter into the capital. So I think those are included in our guidance.

Operator

That's it. No more questions. Any closing remarks, Joseph?

Joseph Abraham
Group Chief Executive Officer, The Commercial Bank

Thank you, everyone, for joining us, and we look forward to talking to you again after the first quarter. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Thank you.

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