Axfood AB (publ) (STO:AXFO)
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Earnings Call: Q2 2022

Jul 15, 2022

Operator

Hello and welcome to the presentation of Axfood Q2 results. Throughout the call, all participants will be on listen-only mode. At the end of the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. If you have any questions, please press zero one on your telephone keypad. Today, I am pleased to present CEO, Klas Balkow, and CFO, Anders Lexmon. Klas, please begin.

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

Thank you, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining today's call. As you heard, with me here today is our CFO, Anders Lexmon, and we're here to present you the second quarter report for Axfood. In the investor section of Axfood's website, you will find the presentation for today's call, and a recording of the call will also be made available on the website. With that, I would like to get started, so please turn to page number two. Here you will find the agenda. First, I would like to provide you with a brief market overview and then go through the second quarter performance for Axfood. I will then hand over to Anders, who will take you through our financial position.

Following Anders' part, I will give you a brief update on our strategic agenda, including an update of the integration of Bergendahls Food. The last part of the presentation is a reminder of our Outlook 2022, and as always, after the presentation, we'll open up for questions. Please go to the next page number three. As I said, first, let me start by reflecting on the current exceptional market situation and, turn to the next page number four. I would like to begin my market update by looking back where we were in March 2020, which was the start of a turbulent period.

This is actually a slide that I used in the first quarter 2020, a little bit more than two years ago, to illustrate the extreme situation that hit us all when the COVID-19 pandemic escalated all over the world and turned everything upside down. Hoarding in stores and supply constraints was immediate, followed by a sharp decline in the café and restaurant market after WHO declared a global pandemic on March 11th. We experienced a drop in customer traffic in city centers due to more people working from home. In mid-March, Norway imposed travel restrictions and cross-border trade was more or less erased. Please then turn to the next page, number five . After two years of struggling disturbances due to the pandemic, we are entering into a new exceptional times.

When COVID-19-related restrictions were lifted in early February, we could see people returning to cafés and restaurants. Also, consumer traffic in city centers picked up as people returned to their offices and physical stores. In February, travel restrictions from Norway to Sweden was lifted with sudden increase in cross-border trade as a result. In late February, Russia invaded Ukraine, which started a whole new set of disruptions, supply constraints, shortage of raw materials, and various logistical challenges. All of this fueling a sharp increase in food price inflation. Turn to next page, number six. Coming from a long period of very low food price inflation, and actually even deflation, we have, in recent months, moved to double-digit food price inflation. We haven't seen this level of development for decades.

The development we see is a consequence of a number of external factors, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, sharply increased electricity and fuel prices, disturbances in the transport sector, and shortages of raw materials and packaging. The current situation affects the entire supply chain, from primary production to our own operations. Service levels are down due to extensive delays in deliveries from suppliers and a rapid shift in demand. As a result, logistics costs are increasing. Navigating all of this is something we are working hard to manage. We are working intensively with our suppliers to minimize the disruptions that we have in the supply chain. It is extremely difficult then to predict where this is going and how it will pan out.

I predict that food price inflation will continue to increase in the short term, but how much and for how long, it's, as said, difficult to predict. Please now turn to page number seven. It is clear that consumers will be affected by the changes in the market and that consumers' behavior will change, adjusting to household budgets becoming more strained. However, there is a certain lag in the chain of reactions while we have not yet seen major changes in our customers' buying pattern. If I should reflect a little bit, let me reflect briefly on what the tendencies are. We have experienced low price becoming increasingly attractive for consumers for quite some time now. In the current market situation, that trend is accelerating.

One can predict that this trend will continue, at least in the short term, and that low price will become increasingly relevant for more consumers. Also, campaigns are becoming more attractive for consumers, and it's clear that more customers choose discounted products to a larger extent. As price value are becoming increasingly important for consumers, also private label products are likely to become more attractive. In our stores, we see a slightly higher frequency and lower average ticket value. We also predict that consumers increased price sensitivity risk disadvantaging the consumption of sustainable food, and that share of sales of sustainability labeled products will unfortunately go down. These are some of the indications of changed consumer behavior, which we can see tendencies towards today. However, we may not know that in the fall, we might see another reality. Please now turn to next page number eight.

At the same time, as we experience consumers starting to adjust to household budgets becoming more strained, we also see a consumer behavior coming back to what prevailed before the COVID-19 pandemic. As mentioned earlier, we are seeing consumers returning to physical stores, which is particularly evident in larger stores in central metropolitan locations. The Norwegian consumers is once again crossing the border into Sweden for larger food supply, and we spend time in restaurants and cafés again. At the same time, online food purchases have declined as consumers are returning to physical stores. Although, I have to say, the share of e-commerce is still significantly higher than before the corona pandemic. Please turn to next page, number nine. In these times, Axfood is very well-positioned. Let me remind you of our structure and portfolio of concept and brands. Willys is benefiting from the accelerating low price trend.

With the recently acquired minority shareholding in City Gross, we have also presence in the hypermarket segment. Hemköp has a good position in central metropolitan locations, benefiting from customers returning to physical stores, as well as location close to home. Eurocash benefits from cross-border trading, picking up now to more normal levels. Snabbgross and Urban Deli are positively impacted by the strong recovery of the café and restaurant market. This combined with Hemköp's broad takeaway offering in urban stores, we meet various customer demands in times when price value is important. As a result of the divestment of Mat.se, Axfood is now the second largest owner in Mathem, meaning that we have a good position in pure-play online retail with home deliveries. Most likely, we also have the strongest click and collect offering in the market through Willys.

Dagab has a key role streamlining the product supply of group-owned stores and external customers, such as franchise stores and convenience retailers. Please now turn to the next page 10. With that, let me now go through the market development in more detail. The graph on the left side on this page shows market growth rates on a monthly basis year-over-year. The graph on the right side shows quarterly food price inflation year-over-year. Market growth in the second quarter was 5.4%. As shown in the graph to the right on this slide, the inflation rate continued its upward trend during the second quarter and amounted to 8.9%. This development was driven by price increases across most categories.

The level of inflation escalated during the quarter and the inflation rate in June was high at 11.2%. Please turn to next page, number 11. On this slide, you will find the monthly market growth rates year-over-year for physical stores and online. As evident by the market data, there's been continued return to physical stores driven by increased traffic in city centers. However, the trend for growth in e-commerce has been weak, mainly due to high comps. Compared to pre-pandemic numbers, share of e-commerce sales has more or less doubled. That sums up my market overview. Please go to next page, number 12. We are now moving into Axfood's performance during the second quarter. Again, please turn page to number 13.

Our total retail sales grew strongly at 9.7% during the second quarter, which was clearly higher than the market growth of 5.4%. In the online segment, growth was -27.5%, while growth in the market was negative at -27.6%. When we extract Mat.se, our online growth was -18.3% during the second quarter, which is clearly better than the market. Please turn to next page, number 14. Our consolidated net sales for Axfood grew by 32.8% during the second quarter and amounted to SEK 18.5 billion. The increase in net sales attributable to Bergendahls Food acquisition, food price inflation, continued strong recovery in both cross-border trade and service trade, and to increased customer traffic in physical stores. As mentioned, e-commerce sales was down in the second quarter.

The share of retail sales attributable to e-commerce was 5.3% despite the divestment of Mat.se. Clearly higher than the market that reported an e-commerce share of sales of 4.3% in the second quarter, and significantly higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic. I will go through the sales segment by segment in more detail shortly, but please now move to next page, 15. In total, group operating profit amounted to SEK 789 million, and the operating margin was slightly down to 4.3%. Reported operating profit includes items affecting comparability of net SEK -39 million. Adjusted operating profit, excluding items affecting comparability, amounted to SEK 828 million, and the corresponding margin was 4.5%.

The increase in the adjusted operating profit was supported by the return to physical stores and cross-border trading, higher volumes from the acquired Bergendahls Food, the divestment of Mat.se, and effective cost control in our store operations. This compensated for higher purchase prices, higher electricity and fuel costs, and negative currency effects. We also reported lower delivery reliability than normal for Dagab as a consequence of substantial delays in incoming deliveries and unusually rapid shifts in demand, which resulted in higher logistical costs. However, in all, a strong second quarter with higher profit but a slightly lower operating margin. Let me now walk you through segment by segment and turn to page 16. We start by Willys. Net sales growth for Willys amounted to 13% and like-for-like retail sales increased by 11.2%. A development, as you have seen, well above the market.

With the increasing food price inflation, low price is becoming increasingly relevant for the Swedish consumers, which benefits Willys as a leading low price player. The price development and increased customer traffic in stores explain growth of the Willys concept. Following the lifted travel restrictions between Sweden and Norway in mid-February, the performance of Eurocash significantly improved. During the second quarter, we once again see a more normal influx of customers from Norway, even though we are still not back to where we were pre-pandemic. Operating profit for the Willys segment increased to SEK 465 million, and the margin was 5.1%. The higher operating margin is explained by strong improvement in earnings for Eurocash and overall a good cost control. Let me also mention the Willys store in Västerås that was tragically damaged by fire last week.

Luckily, no one was hurt physically. We estimate the closed store to have limited effect on growth in the next quarter since Willys will redirect customers to our second store in Västerås during the time the damaged stores is being rebuilt, which will take some time. Moving on now to the next page 17, and with that move to Hemköp. Net sales growth for Hemköp amounted to 6.9%, and retail sales for Hemköp, including Tempo, increased by 3.5%. As an effect of the return after the corona pandemic, customer traffic increased in larger stores in central metropolitan locations. However, stores close to home and the Tempo chain were negatively affected by decline in customer traffic, a clear post-pandemic effect. The operating profit for Hemköp amounted to SEK 64 million, and the operating margin was slightly down at 3.8%.

Let me now comment on Snabbgross. With that, turn to page 18. Once again, Snabbgross had a great quarter and posted all-time high sales and operating profit. Second quarter sales increased strongly by 33.7% in total and 29.3% like-for-like. The strong growth is mainly attributable to the recovery of the cafe and restaurant market and by food price inflation. I also would like to highlight Snabbgross' strong development in newly established stores and the increased interest in Snabbgross' club store concept with a membership growth of over 40%. With the strong sales development, Snabbgross' operating profit increased significantly in the quarter and amounted to SEK 81 million. The operating margin was also substantially higher at 6.2%. Let me now wrap up and comment on Dagab, so please go to next page 19.

With the contribution from the acquired Bergendahls Food, sales for Dagab increased by 34.1%. Excluding Bergendahls Food's, sales growth amounted to 12.7% due to the strong sales to retail chains and service trade. Operating profit was SEK 233 million, which corresponded to an operating margin of 1.4%. Operating profit include items affecting comparability with the Bergendahls Food integration cost and the structural cost associated with the logistical platform restructuring. The adjusted operating profit amounted to SEK 289 million, and the adjusted operating margin was 1.7%. The higher operating profit is explained by the strong growth and the increased volumes from the acquired Bergendahls Food.

At the same time, operating profit was negatively affected by higher fuel costs, negative currency effect, and higher logistical costs as a result of lower level of service caused by the product shortages at suppliers and transport-related disruptions. With that, I would like to hand over to Anders, who will present our financial position. Please turn to next page number 20. Anders, please go ahead.

Anders Lexmon
CFO, Axfood

Thank you, Klas. Let's turn to page 21. Let me first sum up the net sales and operating profit for the first half year. Net sales for the group increased with 29.3% to SEK 35.1 billion, including the acquisition of Bergendahls Food. Store sales for the Axfood group increased by 7% and was stronger than the overall market growth also for the first half year. The operating profit, excluding positive items affecting comparability of SEK 143 million increased with SEK 255 million to SEK 1.48 billion. The operating margin decreased from 4.55% to 4.2%.

Items affecting comparability consist of a capital gain of SEK 221 million recognizing Q1 due to the divestment of Mat.se and cost relating to the ongoing integration of Bergendahls Food and structural costs attributable to the new logistical structure in Dagab. Let's turn to page 22. Looking at the cash flow for the period, we continue to show higher operating profit compared to last year, mainly due to the capital gain from the divestment of Mat.se. However, excluding one-offs, we can see a strong underlying performance in all operating segments. We have a positive deviation of SEK 107 million in net working capital compared to last year. This is mainly explained by an increase in accounts payable.

The investing activities for the period increased with SEK 961 million compared to last year due to our automation investment in Dagab, and I'll come back to the investments in the next slide. During Q2, Axfood carried out the rights issue of just below SEK 1.5 billion to finance the acquisition of Bergendahls Food and the minority stake in City Gross. The rights issue also enabled us to continue to further invest in our operations. In connection with the rights issue, we made a net debt amortization of SEK 1.1 billion during the second quarter. The AGM decided the total dividend for 2021 to SEK 7.75 per share, an increase of SEK 0.25 compared to last year.

SEK 4 per share was paid out in Q1, and the remaining amount, SEK 3.75 per share, will be paid out in September. To summarize, the total cash flow for the period amounts to SEK -405 million compared to SEK 10 million last year. Then let's turn page to page number 23. As I mentioned, total investment for the first half year amounted to SEK 1,435 million, SEK 839 million higher than the first half year 2021. The increase is mainly explained by higher investment in our wholesale operation, and we follow our plan for 2022. During the second quarter, SEK 513 million was paid out for investments in automation, and for the first half year, SEK 721 million was invested in automation.

The investment in our retail operation during the first half of the year was down somewhat compared to last year due to lower pace in acquisitions and establishments. Refurbishments were in line with last year, and the total investment in our joint operation were also in line with last year. Turn page to page 24. During the first half year, the net working capital rolling twelve as percent of sales was minus 3.6%, a setback of 0.3 compared to last year. The NWC is negatively impacted by the UTP Directive and the dilutive effect of the Bergendahls Food acquisition. Despite UTP, we have continued our focus on working capital with improved payment terms on accounts payable, and that together with our SCF program helps us increase the accounts payable.

Going forward, we will continue our focus to mitigate the UTP effect and the dilution due to the Bergendahls Food acquisition. As we have communicated earlier, we accept this key figure to stabilize on approximately -3% after the full effect of UTP and Bergendahls Food. Next page 25. The net debt excluding IFRS 16 has decreased with SEK 721 million during the first half of 2022 to SEK 515 million, mainly as a result of the rights issue, but also negatively impacted by the automation investment and the debt amortization. The net debt EBITDA ratio has decreased to 1.2, and the equity ratio has increased with 4.9 percentage points to 24.8% compared to Q2 last year.

The improvements on the ratios was explained by the rights issue. Turn to page 26. The capital employed increased with approximately SEK 3.3 billion compared to Q2 last year due to the acquisition of Bergendahls Food. Capital employed was in line with year-end 2021. Return on capital employed was 26.4%, slightly above Q2 last year. That ends my part of the presentation, and I thereby hand over to you again, Klas.

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

Thank you, Anders, and let me now give you a brief update on some of our focus areas going forward. With that, we are now on page 27, but let's please go to page number 28. On this page, you can see the six growth-promoting and efficiency-enhancing priorities that we work with to become the market leader in affordable, good, and sustainable food. Today, I will focus on three relevant topics within our strategic agenda. The integration of Bergendahls Food, our investments in our supply chain, and sustainability. Please move to the next page number 29. The integration of Bergendahls Food into Dagab operation is proceeding well in line with plan. During the second quarter, a common sourcing and business organization has been established, while we from now on will refer to Dagab Hässleholm instead of Bergendahls Food.

The wholesale conversion to Dagab systems and processes was completed at the end of April, supporting not only City Gross but also other external customers, such as Matbörsen, foodora, and Matöppet, among others. This is an important step for our ongoing efforts to ensure that economies of scale and expected synergies are being realized. Preparation for the conversion of City Gross point-of-sale system began in May, and conversion of the first City Gross store was done in June. The conversion is expected to be completed around the end of 2022. We put obviously a lot of effort in all aspects of the integration on Dagab Hässleholm to make this integration as smooth as possible. Please go to the next page number 30.

An Axfood investment in logistics will form the basis of an efficient, flexible, and supportive product supply and a stronger customer offering to the group store chain as well as external customers. We are actually building a top-class nationwide logistical platform with a high automation level in Bålsta, north of Stockholm, replacing 6 of our current warehousing operations. We're also investing substantially in several of our sites to create an even more competitive product supply. Please go to next page number 31. On this slide, it shows the major components of our future logistical platform. We are well on track, and it's fascinating actually to witness the progress in all of these initiatives. In Bålsta, approximately 95% of automation for dry supply is now in place.

Advanced tests will begin after the summer, and the ramp-up of the facility will start towards the end of the year. Also, the installation of the largest rooftop solar panel facility in Sweden has begun on the roof of the facility in Bålsta. For the high-bay warehouse in Backa in Gothenburg, we are planning to start construction this autumn. In Landskrona, construction is well underway. The manual part will be put into operation in November and will be supplemented with automation during the later part of 2023. Please go to next page number 32. It's also important for me to emphasize the importance of sustainability. Because when food prices increase, there is a risk that sustainable and healthy food will be given less of a priority by the consumers.

However, as we all know, the climate and environmental challenges are bigger and more critical than ever. Sustainability is a priority for Axfood in all parts of our business. We have a broad agenda that includes activities linked to the entire food system. Let me just highlight a few of the initiatives that we've been working on during this quarter. Hemköp introduced climate signage in all the stores to guide customers to sustainable choices through tips on, for example, seasonal vegetables, plant-based proteins, and dishes made from saved ingredients. To increase the level of knowledge and help suppliers in different countries to reduce their emissions, a new climate educational tool has been developed by Axfoundation and Axfood, among others. As the first company in the grocery industry, Axfood has built a database that includes approximately 18,000 different packaging materials.

The database will speed up the transition to recyclable packaging of renewable or recycled material. To increase the supply of more sustainably produced seafood, Axfood supports Re:Ocean, which is a large-scale and circular investment in land-based salmon farming. Every year, 10,000 tons of salmon will be produced in one of the largest Swedish food investments ever. We need to do more, and we need to work together. I strongly believe there is a need for both courage and action in politics with measures that benefit both the environment and household wallets. Therefore, Axfood has proposed to reduce the food VAT for sustainable food as a way to speed up green transition of the food system.

A differentiation of VAT would give consumers the opportunity to buy sustainable food at lower prices, while at the same time motivating food companies to make changes so their goods meet the requirements for different sustainability labels. Please now go to page 33. Let's now turn to the outlook for 2022, and the guidance we gave last quarter is unchanged. Just please go to page 34. The 2022 operating profit will be charged with certain structural costs associated with transition to the new logistical center and the integration of Bergendahls Food, totaling approximately SEK 340 million. Capital expenditures are expected to amount to between SEK 2.6 billion and SEK 2.7 billion, excluding acquisitions and the right of use assets.

As a reminder, we plan to increase the rate of expansion and establish eight to 13 new stores during this year, 2022. With that, let's turn to the final page of the presentation, page 35. Let me summarize. The second quarter of 2022 has been a quarter with strong growth and market gain in exceptional times. We are well-positioned in the prevailing market, and the integration of Bergendahls Food is proceeding well in line with plan. We have a very strong financial position supported by the rights issue and a solid agenda for continued growth. That ends the presentation from our side today, and I would now like to hand over to the operator to open up the line for questions. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. If you do wish to ask a question, please press zero one on your telephone keypad. If you wish to withdraw your question, you may do so by pressing zero two. The first question comes from Niklas Ekman at DNB Carnegie. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Niklas Ekman
Equity Research Analyst, DNB Carnegie

Thank you. Yes, I have a couple of questions. Firstly, I'm curious if you could elaborate a little bit on price elasticity. If you look at the market now, we have inflation of almost 9%, but the market only grew 5.5%, as you said. So 3.5% volume decline, even more so in June. But looking at your numbers, we see fairly limited impact of that. Can you elaborate a little bit on your view on price elasticity and why you are kind of not seeing any tangible elasticity in your numbers? That's my first question.

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

Yeah, good morning, Niklas. My view, I think that I commented on it a bit that there are two major trends at the moment. One is the post-pandemic trend, and then you have the inflation. It is our viewpoint that you know. We track pricing frequently and that we are you know more or less in line with the rest of the market in this area. Then we have grown higher or more than the market is very much related to some of our I think strong concepts. Particularly as you've seen, Willys is doing a really strong quarter. From that is you know one way of looking at the elasticity.

I think also, as I pointed out, it's a bit early. We see some trends, some increase in campaigns. We see some increase in frequency, a little bit lower ticket value. We are very early in this and I think it's gonna be interesting to see how this starts to play out a little later after the summer. The elasticity is there, I would say, if you look at the price that we have in the market, you know, we are equally competitive. It's just that we have gained some more volumes in this quarter.

Niklas Ekman
Equity Research Analyst, DNB Carnegie

Thank you. Thank you. Kind of on that topic, if you look at Willys did very well during COVID, while Hemköp was struggling. Now obviously the comps are difficult for Willys, they're easy for Hemköp, and still you're kind of seeing the same trend or even more so, an acceleration in Willys and a continued weakness in Hemköp. What would you attribute this to?

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

Well, I think if you look at the numbers, Hemköp and that clears it out, even if we do not comment specifically on the franchise and the group owned. Actually the group owned is very clear in the report, that's the number we are reporting. You see that Hemköp is actually growing more than the market in that aspect. That is obviously. While the franchise is more positioned in the areas where their consumers are living, so they are more. They had a very strong development during the pandemic. Now they are falling back a bit.

Tempo chain that is now included in our numbers, if you look at that 3.5%, had a very strong development during the pandemic and is now meeting very high comps. I think it's more of a return a bit on the pandemic at this stage that differs more than anything else. Then we need to measure that towards the market. But then of course, we also have Willys. Willys is clearly doing you know outperforming the market in this period, also included and supported by Eurocash.

Niklas Ekman
Equity Research Analyst, DNB Carnegie

Yes.

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

My point, Niklas, is that we shouldn't say that Hemköp is really, you know, struggling because if you're only comparing them to Willys, you need to compare it to the market.

Niklas Ekman
Equity Research Analyst, DNB Carnegie

Fair point. On the topic of Eurocash, which you mentioned, how far from 2019 levels are you at the moment? Is it possible to quantify?

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

Well, we are, I would say, well, could we be 10% to 15% off from full speed, which is very much related. When we look at traffic, you get some traffic data from all the borders. It relates a little bit to that traffic decline. Not fully up to speed yet, but also significantly obviously better than we've seen for a couple of years. I think we'll see how this evolves. We have hopes that this will continue to strengthen, but we will see.

Niklas Ekman
Equity Research Analyst, DNB Carnegie

Perfect. A final question from me. Just you mentioned supply constraints, you mentioned the service levels here. I mean, obviously your margins are holding up here very well, but have you seen any problems in forwarding input costs? I am talking both raw material, but also petrol, transportation, all those things. Forwarding those immediately, have there been any costs that you have been forced to absorb short-term? Or are you pretty much forwarding all the costs you're seeing more or less directly to consumers?

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

Well, I think we are, as I mentioned, as also in the report that the costs that we see from the suppliers is not fully reflected, and there are some time lag in all of this, and I think we'll continue to see some time lag. We also have higher costs, as you point out, and I think we are at this stage also very much focusing on getting our service levels in order, which is obviously that drives more of an inefficiency than direct costs, I would say, in our system.

Which obviously we are not happy about, but we're working of course with the suppliers on that as we have the transports. It's a struggle, but some particular delay, which means that even if we don't have, you know, lack of food in our stores, there could be also lack of days when they come in, which could mean that you get some shortages from time to time. In general terms, it's more of a productivity constraint that we want to see moving up later on.

Niklas Ekman
Equity Research Analyst, DNB Carnegie

Perfect. Thank you so much for taking my questions.

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

Thanks.

Operator

The next question comes from Fredrik Ivarsson at ABG Sundal Collier. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Fredrik Ivarsson
Equity Research Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

Thank you very much. Good morning, gentlemen. I have a few as well. I'll take the questions one by one. Klas, you mentioned the unusual rapid shift in demand which impacted the margin in Dagab. Curious, can you give some color to this statement? Was it a product shift or a shift between the chains or maybe both, I suppose?

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

Well, I think I mentioned it related to. There is obviously a shift now, and you're coming into some of the details here in terms of how we operate, where we historically have a lot of good data in terms of when we have campaigns or with products, how they will spin in the chains. But now sudden shifts, just take as an example, you can take coffee or you can take that as a massive increase. Obviously, the campaigns with coffee is now driving more than it did before. You have. The same goes for many other areas. It's a bit of shift within this assortment, so to speak, that is struggle. Slightly more or slightly.

Some higher effects on consumers are more attracted to campaigns, which is expected. Also in the normal flow where we are adjusting our data based on historical, we've gone on historical data. Now we need to look at it a bit different and how we can. The challenge obviously is to forecast and see how much we should buy in on each of the assortment, so we can meet the new patterns out there.

Fredrik Ivarsson
Equity Research Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

That's clear. Understood. Thanks. The second one on food price inflation. You mentioned a couple of times you haven't been fully able to compensate for the higher food production costs, and so forth. Does that mean that you expect CPI to actually accelerate from the almost 11% that we saw in June going forward?

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

I think as I said, how much and how this will turn out is obviously, it's difficult to say a number. The pressure we are currently seeing from the suppliers in terms of price increases going forward just is a clear indication of that. Unfortunately, we have to expect that you will see some further inflation moving forward, particularly in the short term. How much and how this will turn out, I think it's also very much related to what happens now moving forward. There are some indication of that raw materials will go down, but obviously it depends on many factors. We at this stage is also a bit concerned looking into the heat wave that is coming into Southern Europe.

There are some countries there that could hit the farming. How it will turn out is difficult, but short term, I expect that we will continue to see further inflation.

Fredrik Ivarsson
Equity Research Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

Yeah. That's probably a good guess. Thanks. Then last question, a follow-up on Niklas' question on Eurocash. You said 10% to 15% below pre-pandemic levels. Is that a good proxy for us to use in terms of EBIT? So can we assume 10% to 15% lower EBIT in Eurocash versus Q2 2019?

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

We are now still in the ramp up. We also have one more store, so that was referring more to like for like. We have one more store in the chains today. Obviously we have done a lot of work with Eurocash. How this actually will turn out going forward, it's. I will not guide on that. I think we are though fairly pleased on that the terrible red numbers we saw during the pandemic is now up to black numbers again. We hope now, which is gonna be the strongest period, Q3 here, will turn out good.

hope that the traffic will continue to increase.

Fredrik Ivarsson
Equity Research Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

Okay. Fair enough. Thanks. That's my questions.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, if you do wish to ask a question, please press zero one on your telephone keypad. There are no more questions at this time, so I hand the word back to the speakers for any concluding remarks.

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

Well, I just want to conclude. Thanks for listening, and I wish you all a nice summer. Thanks a lot.

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