Axfood AB (publ) (STO:AXFO)
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May 5, 2026, 5:29 PM CET
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Earnings Call: Q4 2022

Feb 1, 2023

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

Good morning, everyone. Of course, welcome to our today's call. With me today, I have our CFO, Anders Lexmon. We're here to present to you the year-end 2022 report for Axfood. In the investor section on our website, you will find the presentation material for today's call. The recording will also be made available after the presentation. With that, I would like you to get started with turning to next page 2. On this slide, you can see the agenda for today. First, a quick market overview. Then I will go through the 4Q performance for Axfood. After that, Anders will briefly summarize the full year and also take you through the financials. Following Anders' part, I will also go through some of our strategic focus areas that we are currently working on.

Lastly, before we open up for questions, I will talk about the outlook for 2023 and also present to you the Board's dividend proposal that was disclosed today. Please now go to page three. Starting with our market update. Let me provide you with some comments on our current operating environment and go to the next page four. As you may know by now, the effects of the pandemic, higher energy and fuel costs, climate change, and the ongoing war in Ukraine have caused product supply disruptions resulting in drastic price increases by our suppliers and in that higher food prices. This trend accelerated during the course of 2022 and dominated also the end of the year as well.

According to Statistics Sweden, consumer prices on food increased slightly more than 18% in the 4Q compared to a year ago. However, inflation with respect to consumer prices was still lower than the food price inflation on the producer side as PPI increased a full 20% during the same period. In other words, continued price increases by suppliers have still not been entirely reflected in the consumer prices, although the gap between the two narrowed somewhat during the quarter compared to earlier. We continue to see changing consumer purchasing patterns with elevated levels of price consciousness leading to more interest in low price products, discounts, campaigns, and as well also private labels. While inflation is still the single most important factor behind changes in the market dynamics, at the same time, the post-pandemic normalization has continued during the year.

With that, please go to next page number five. Adjusted for calendar effect of -0.5%, market growth amounted to 8.1% during the 4Q, entirely then driven by higher prices. On a sequential basis, therefore, growth was very similar to the level in the 3Q. This is despite the accelerated inflation, implicating that the price-adjusted decline consisting of volume and mix effects has deteriorated. We believe there are several reasons behind this decline, including a continued volume shift to café and restaurants, as well as then down trading. Sales in physical stores increased by 8.4%, while e-commerce sales decreased by -7.4%. As I just mentioned, consumers continue to return to physical stores at the expense of e-commerce.

The share of e-commerce was 4.3% during the 4Q and 4.5% for the full year of 2022. With that sums up the market overview, please go to next page 6. I would like now to move into our performance during the 4Q. Turn page again to page 7. Looking here at the growth for Axfood's retail sales, it really accelerated further in the 4Q and amounted to an impressive 17.9%. The comparable market growth rate amounted to 7.6%, i.e., if you not adjust for the calendar effect. I must say it's without a doubt that the Swedish consumers increasingly appreciate our offers in this environment.

In the online segment, Axfood sales declined -3.1%, which was less than the market, where the decline rate was -7.4%. However, if you exclude the divested Mat.se, our sales actually increased by almost 9%. Please now go to next page number eight. Consolidated net sales for Axfood grew by 15.7% during the 4Q and amounted to SEK 19.7 billion. The increase in the 4Q is attributable to high food price inflation and higher customer traffic in physical stores, especially than in Willys. The share of retail sales in e-commerce was 5.4%, which is clearly higher than the market. Now, we'll go through the sales by segment in more detail shortly, but first, please move to the next page, and that will be then page number nine.

In total, our group operating profit amounted to SEK 502 million, and the operating margin was 2.5%. The reported operating profit includes significant Items Affecting Comparability totaling -SEK 232 million. These structural costs were higher than we previously expected, which was mainly due to the upward rent indexation for the existing warehouses. Looking at the adjusted operating profit, excluding the Items Affecting Comparability, it amounted to SEK 734 million, an increase of 12.3%. The increase was mainly the result of strong growth in physical stores and the recovery of our cross-border shopping, as well as effective cost control in the store chains. Overall, this compensated for increased purchasing prices, higher logistical cost, and negative currency effect.

Need to mention as well, the increase in our joint group cost is primarily attributable to a cost of SEK 20 million for discarded IT system. The operating margin, excluding items affecting comparability, was almost flat at 3.7%. Let me now walk you through our segment and how it looks in each of them. We'll start, we'll go into the next page 10, and we'll start then with Willys. As you may have seen, Willys is seeing an exceptionally strong growth, and the outperformance versus the market has accelerated compared to prior quarters. In the 4Q, and almost also for the full year, Willys grew 3 x as fast as the overall market, which is of course, a really extraordinary achievement.

With its modern stores, a strong e-commerce offering, a broad assortment and low prices, Willys is attracting now more and more customers, the growth rate of Willys Plus loyalty program member has more than doubled during the year. With a stronger position and an expanded customer base, Willys has an excellent platform for continue to grow and gain market shares also in the long run. We're now on page 11, net sales growth for Willys amounted to a full 23.2%, while like-for-like retail sales increased by 20.4%. The Willys chain's strong development during the quarter was attributable to pricing, but also volume growth in contrast to the market as a whole, from particularly increased in-store customer traffic. The positive trend in our cross-border shopping continued, Eurocash sales increased considerably.

However, I would like to emphasize that Eurocash contribution this quarter was not as significant as before, as the comparison figures for sales and profit in the 4Q 2021 was significantly better due to the less pandemic-related travel restrictions than during the 3Q 2021. Also, to remind you, there are seasonality effects related to Eurocash and the cross-border segment in general. Generally, the 4Q each year, and also the first quarter is seasonally weaker than the second and 3Q for Eurocash. Operating profit for Willys segment increased to SEK 425 million, and the margin was similar to the prior year at 4.1%. Continued price increases by our suppliers were not fully reflected in consumer prices, and obviously this had a negative effect on our gross margin.

Also a reminder that our minority share in City Gross is included in the Willys segment, and costs related to the City Gross integration negatively impacted the operating profit during the quarter. I must say I'm really pleased that the integration is now finalized, and I will then come back to this a bit later on in the presentation. The negative effects on the operating profit were clearly offset by the growth in like-for-like sales. Moving now to next page, we are now on page 12. Net sales growth for Hemköp amounted to 9.6%, and the like-for-like sales for the group-owned stores increased by 10.1%.

Retail sales for Hemköp segment, which includes Tempo, increased by 7.9% in total, which is slightly more than the market and higher than the rate of growth in the traditional grocery segment. Like-for-like sales growth amounted to 6.6%. Hemköp continuously develops its concept. It's strengthening its sustainability profile and invest to increase its presence and modernizing existing stores. Hemköp is also seeing a strong growth in its loyalty program, Klubb Hemköp. The operating profit for Hemköp amounted to SEK 76 million, the operating margin was 4.2%. Continued price increases by suppliers, as well as with Willys, were not fully reflected in prices for the consumers, which had a negative effect on our gross margin. The effects on of this on the profit were clearly offset also here by the growth in our like-for-like sales.

Let me now comment on Snabbgross' segment. Please move to the next page number 13. Snabbgross once again had a very good performance, with record sales for the 4Q and a strong profitability. On relatively high comps, sales increased 18.7% in total and 15.9% on a like-for-like basis. Snabbgross' strong sales growth was mainly due to the recovery of the café and restaurant market after the pandemic, as well as food price inflation. Developments in the newly established stores and sales to consumers through the member-based Snabbgross Club store concept also contributed. Our operating profit amounted to SEK 51 million, corresponding to operating margin of 4.4%. The higher operating profit was primarily attributable to strong growth in like-for-like sales.

Some costs related to the new stores and marketing for Snabbgross Club impacted the profit negatively. We are now on page 14 of the presentation, and net sales for Dagab increased 15.9% in the quarter, mainly attributable to the sharp increase in sales to the store chain. Dagab's result was impacted by significant cost affecting comparability of -232 million SEK. The operating profit amounted to 63 million SEK. Items Affecting Comparability related to integration costs for Bergendahls Food, as well as structural costs connecting to the restructuring of the logistics operation is part of this. The adjusted operating profit amounted to 294 million SEK. The adjusted operating margin was 1.6%. The higher adjusted operating profit was primarily attributed to the strong growth.

We also had a one-off cost of SEK 23 million, which was charged during the quarter related to discarded IT platform in Middagsfrid and adjustments to the e-commerce warehouses due to now lower volumes. The operating profit was also negatively impacted by a weaker Swedish krona, as well as higher fuel and logistical costs. With that, I would like you to turn to the next page number 15, and I would like to welcome Anders. You can take this further. Welcome, Anders.

Anders Lexmon
CFO, Axfood

Thank you very much, Klas, good morning to you all. Let's turn to page number 16 in the presentation. Let me start with a sum up of the net sales and operating profit development for the full year. Net sales for the group increased with 26.9% to SEK 73.5 billion. Store sales increased by 11.9%, which was clearly higher than the food retail market in total, where growth amounted to 5.7%. The operating profit, excluding Items Affecting Comparability of minus SEK 129 million, increased by SEK 539 million to SEK 3.2 billion. The increase is mainly explained by the strong growth in physical stores and the recovery from the Norway-Swedish border trade.

The operating margin, excluding items affecting comparability, decreased with 0.2 percentage points from 4.6% to 4.4%. Items affecting comparability consists of a capital gain from the divestment of Mat.se, cost relating to the ongoing integration of Bergendahls Food, structural costs attributable to the establishment of the group's new logistic platform in Bålsta, lastly, payments received from Fora Afa, employer liability insurance based on earlier premium payments. Let's then turn to page number 17. Looking at the cash flow for the year, we continue to have a higher operating profit despite the items affecting comparability reduce the profit. We have a positive deviation of SEK 1.1 billion in net working capital compared to last year, which is mainly explained by an increase in accounts payable and other current liabilities.

Although there are, there is a strong underlying performance, part of the positive working capital performance is related to the high investment level at year-end, and part of this will be reversed in 2023. We have no calendar effects during the period. The investing activities decreased with SEK 2.1 billion compared to last year, mainly due to the Bergendahls Food acquisition last year. During the second quarter, Axfood carried out a fully subscribed rights issue of just below SEK 1.5 billion to finance the acquisition of Bergendahls Food and the minority interest in City Gross, and also to enable subsequent investments in our different operations. With this rights issue, we have further strengthened our financial position and created greater financial flexibility for the future.

In connection with the rights issue, we made a net debt amortization of SEK 1.1 billion of the revolving credit facility during the second quarter 2022. In September, a dividend of SEK 3.75 per share was paid out to the shareholders, the second part of this year's total shareholder dividend of SEK 7.75 per share, which was higher than the SEK 7.50 per share last year. To summarize, total cash flow for 2022 amounted to minus SEK 175 million compared to -SEK 800 million last year. Let's turn to page number 18. Total investments for the full year amounted to SEK 2.6 billion, and that's SEK 600 million lower than the prior year.

The decrease is mainly explained by the acquisition of Bergendahls Food last year. Adjusting for the acquisition, the investments in 2022 was higher than 2021, mainly due to the higher investments in supply chain automation, which was well in line with our plan. During 2022, SEK 1.1 billion was invested in automation compared to SEK 700 million invested last year. Investments in our retail operations increased with SEK 119 million compared to last year due to a higher pace in both establishments and refurbishments. Investments in our joint operations, mainly consisting of IT, was in line with last year. If we take a look into 2023, and as you can see in the slide, we are now through our heaviest period on the investments connected to the new logistics center in Bålsta.

Even though we also in 2023 will have some higher investments compared to our underlying level going forward. We estimate the total investments for 2023 will amount to somewhere between SEK 1.8 billion and SEK 1.9 billion, of which SEK 570 million is attributable to automation investments in Bålsta and in the new automated fruit and vegetable warehouse in Landskrona. Thereby let's turn page to page 19. During 2022, net working capital as a percentage of sales on a rolling 12-month basis was -3.5%, higher than the -3.9% level at the year end of last year. Net working capital was negatively impacted by the UTP regulation and was also diluted somewhat with the Bergendahls Food acquisition.

To sum up the year, we have now captured the Bergendal dilution effect and most of the negative UTP effect from the 4Q 2021. We continue to work to mitigate these effects by first and foremost improving payment terms on accounts payable and developing our supply chain financing program. Let's then turn to page number 20. Net debt excluding IFRS 16 decreased by SEK 1.3 billion during 2022 to a net receivable position of SEK 68 million, mainly as a positive result of the rights issue, however, also negatively impacted by automation investments. The net debt EBITDA ratio increased to 1.6, and the equity ratio increased by 2.3 percentage points to 24.1 compared to the same period last year.

The rights issue contributed positively to the development, while the recognition of the lease of debt of the new Bålsta distribution center contributed negatively. Let's turn page to page number 21. Capital employed increased by approximately SEK 2.9 billion compared to last year, the change is primarily attributable to the new logistics center in Bålsta being recognized as a lease liability with SEK 2.3 billion from the 5th of November. Return on capital employed was 20.9%, lower than the prior year, and also that mainly as a result of the increased lease of debts. With that, Klas, ends my part of the presentation.

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

Thank you, Anders. Let's now continue. We are now on page 22, but we'll right away go to actually page 23 and looking into our focus areas. We have a full agenda for 2023, here you can see the strategic focus areas as well as our key priorities of each of these. I will not go through them all, but I would like to say that we are full of energy as we take on the new year, a year that will be both eventful and meaningful for our continued development. The market has surely been turbulent during the past year, we'll continue to navigate it in a changing operating environment. We're also well-positioned and will continue to invest for the future.

I wish though to highlight some of our key initiatives to drive growth and efficiency for many years to come. Go to please next page number 24. The activity level is high in our group, and we continue to develop the customer meeting and expanding our presence with new stores and a continuously improved digital offering. This year, 2023, we will accelerate the pace of new establishments, and the guidance that we have issued today is for 10-15 new stores, which is the most aggressive guidance range ever for Axfood. We see room for us to expand our presence in many areas in Sweden with our appreciated and competitive concepts. I must also say, of course, in particular with Willys, which will represent the majority of the new stores.

The work on upgrading existing stores is also continuously ongoing to ensure customers are giving the best possible in-store experience. We also invest in energy-efficient solutions with, for example, lighting, heating and cooling. To expand the amount of renewable energy, we also put into operation new solar panel systems on our store rooftops. Axfood has a strong presence in the e-commerce channel with the intuitive digital platforms and flexible delivery alternatives. We'll continue to work on strengthening these offerings, but also we'll continue to focus on the in-store shopping experience with more digital tools. Now go to next page number 25. We continue the development of our new logistical platforms as well during the year in order to create a more sustainable, efficient, and competitive product supply.

The establishment of the new highly automated logistics center in Bålsta reached actually a new milestone during the 4Q when the first deliveries from suppliers were received. We will pass the next milestone already in the coming weeks when it's time for the first deliveries of the dry assortment to go to the stores after some thorough testing of all our flows. Dagab is working intensively to ensure a stable transition from its existing warehouse structure to the new logistics center in Bålsta. To handle this, it will incur some extra cost in 2023 of approximately SEK 250 million. Most important here is to remember that all these investments will yield major efficiency improvements and cost savings beginning as early as next year.

The investments are expected to result in a SEK 200 million-SEK 300 million in annual efficiency improvements beginning in the second half of 2024, which will then increase to SEK 300 million-SEK 400 million when we are at full capacity. I can't emphasize enough how important these initiatives are for Axfood, and we are really at the forefront here of developing a best-in-class logistical platform. We've also continued to convert our delivery fleet by increasing the share of electrical vehicles in order to further reduce the climate impact of transportation. As an example, in November, a 64-ton electrical truck and trailer, the first of its type in Sweden, was put into our operation. Move on. We'll now go to next page 126.

Another step in improving our logistical setup is our new larger fruit and vegetable warehouse in Landskrona that we open up during the quarter. This new facility will further develop and streamline our operations and accommodate future volume growth and is replacing the previously entirely manual warehouse in Helsingborg. I previously talked about solar panels on store rooftops, and we're also adding solar panels to our warehouses, including Landskrona and of course also in our new logistical center in Bålsta. Please turn page to page number 27. After the wholesale conversion last spring due to the integration of the acquired company Bergendahls Food, that was completed during the 4Q in connection with the conversion of the City Gross cash register system. We are now moving into the next phase with our partnership to further strengthening City Gross competitiveness.

As an example, we are also improving the fruit and vegetables and private label offering to City Gross. We expect now to achieve the previously announced synergies of at least SEK 200 million on an annual basis earlier than planned and during 2024 at latest. That concludes the update on our strategic agenda. Let's now turn page to the outlook for 2023. We are now on page 28. As Anders said, Axfood's investments in 2023 are expected to amount to SEK 1.8 billion-SEK 1.9 billion, excluding acquisitions and right of use assets.

In addition to annual recurring investments in our operation and a higher rate of expansion through new stores, we will complete automation for stores at the Bålsta Logistics Center and begin the semi-automation of the fruit and vegetable warehouse in Landskrona. As mentioned, we will also have some extra costs as we transition to Bålsta of approximately SEK 250 million. They will be relatively evenly spread out during the year and will be reported as Items Affecting Comparability. Here on the slide, you'll also have the guidance range of 10-15 new stores establishments that I talked about earlier. Moving on to dividend for 2022 and go to page 29. The board of directors will propose to the AGM an increased dividend of 8.15 SEK per share.

The dividend will be split into two payments as last year at SEK 4.15 per share in March and SEK 4 per share in September. The dividend proposal corresponds to 74% of profit after tax, well in line with our dividend policy. Now, turn to the final page of our presentation. 2022 was a turbulent year, to say the least. In a challenging time for households, we see more and more of our customers have come to appreciate our offering and all of our concept strengthening their market positions. We've accelerated our retail sales and increased our market share significantly in this exceptional time. At the same time, we continue to promote sustainable development and investment to strengthening our competitiveness in the long term as well.

We have completed the integration of Bergendahls Food and the City Gross stores, as well as we have taken continued step towards an optimized and automated logistical platform. We are clearly excited to take on the new year with a strong financial position and a solid agenda for future growth and future development. With that summary, I would like to hand over to the operator to open up the line for questions. Thank you.

Operator

If you wish to ask a question, please dial star five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial star 5 again on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Fredrik Ivarsson from ABG Sundal Collier. Please go ahead.

Fredrik Ivarsson
Equity Research Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

Morning, Klas and Anders. A few questions from me. First, you mentioned that some of the price increases from the suppliers aren't fully reflected in consumer prices just yet, and I'm curious to hear whether you think that you will be able to fully transfer these price increases during the year given what you see in terms of consumer behavior at the moment.

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

Morning, Fredrik. Well, I think we asked the same questions, similar the same question, like six months ago and also nine months ago when the inflation started. As I show you on some of the slides there, we've seen that we gradually are, you know, increasing pricing and actually narrowing the gap from the producers or suppliers' increases. I think the market is, you know, responding to this even if it's there is a time lag. I have no other thought at this time at least that as it has done before, I think we will see this matching up.

Again, it's a low margin business, and there are very little room to take to that this will not be reflected to the market.

Fredrik Ivarsson
Equity Research Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

Thanks, Klas. Then maybe a follow-up on that because I believe that many of the suppliers will try to raise prices further during the 1st quarter of this year. What's your expectation on this side when the supplier prices increase even more during the price window?

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

We've seen, I think I've been clear around that we will continue to see price pressure from our suppliers, particularly in the early part of this year. That I can confirm. We're not seeing that inflation is, you know, holding up in this part then. I think we need to reflect now on, we start to see some of the raw materials, not in every areas, but in some areas it's coming down. However, they are still on a significantly higher level than it was prior the pandemic. In addition to that, as we all know, we have energy cost, fuel cost and all of that that comes into play.

Now how this will, you know, sort out over time is difficult to say, but I think that, you know, if we're getting some of the hikes that we've seen now on energy and currencies and other area, most likely and hopefully, I would say, we'll start to see that the strong inflation, is starting to be more balanced.

Fredrik Ivarsson
Equity Research Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

Yep. Sounds good. A question on rent levels, because I suppose many landlords intend to increase the rents in accordance with the inflation rates. Is it fair to assume rent levels up in line with inflation or will you be able to negotiate to some extent?

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

As you know, the rent levels for next year, majority of, in the retail landscape is connected to the KPI on that, and that was approximately 10%, slightly above. I think we can assume that we will have that cost structure that comes in. We are obviously negotiating and trying to see it to minimize the effects, but a majority is fixed contract. Success rate is also not to have too high expectations if I say it like that.

Fredrik Ivarsson
Equity Research Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

Yeah. Super clear. Then one last quick one from me before I jump back into the line. A question on the SEK 250 million one-offs for this year. What do you include in this figure exactly? Where I'm getting at is obviously should we fear any, like, additional inefficiency burdens or whatever during in Dagab that is during 2023 or is SEK 250 the sort of maximum?

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

SEK 250 million is the best guess that we have now. We don't see any reason to apart from that, right now.

It's very easy to-

Fredrik Ivarsson
Equity Research Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

Thank you. Thanks for answering the question.

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

Yeah. Thank you, Fredrik. We will calculate obviously on this, and it's very clearly how we have done it, that we are taking the old structure. Obviously now it's depending on how we are ramping up Bålsta. And we are positive around that, obviously. Yep. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Niklas Ekman from Carnegie. Please go ahead.

Niklas Ekman
Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

Thank you. Yes, a few follow-ups there. On this lag that you talked about from producer prices to consumer prices, can you in any way quantify what kind of lag we're talking about? Are we talking about months or weeks or are we rather talking quarters?

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

It obviously varies by segment, and also there is a competitive landscape there as well, Niklas, as you may, I'm sure you know. But I think the graph in a way could also give you some indications in terms of how we are responding the market, I would say, how that is responding into it. Then you see. Obviously, to answer your question, it depends on how large the increase will be now and then how we are stepping up after that. Obviously, it takes some time, and I think we've seen that over the year fairly how it goes by month by month, it gradually goes up.

Niklas Ekman
Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

Thanks. That's very clear. Second on the same theme, when we're talking about rents and wages, that's something that impacts all players, but not as directly as producer prices. Is there reason to suspect that the lag of forwarding those costs might be longer than it takes to forward producer prices? Is that a risk that you see now, given that these costs might increase a lot here from year-end?

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

Well, wages, we, you know, there's discussions that has already started. That is obviously, when that happens, is a direct impact. Rents is a direct impact when we're getting the cost for the rent. Obviously, that is more of a direct impact when it happens.

Niklas Ekman
Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

Yes.

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

And so-

Niklas Ekman
Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

My question was rather that these are costs that I assume that you will aim to forward, as will everyone in the industry. Do you?

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

Yeah.

Niklas Ekman
Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

think that it will take longer to forward that?

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

No, I don't think, you know, I think in general terms now. If you see at what we, what, now we are coming out of this year, and then particularly the last quarter, with fantastic growth and fantastic drive in our business. If you look at the overall market, you saw the market growth, which was less than that. Of course, this puts pressure on everyone right now, to handle and also to handle the cost structure. That is an expectation.

Niklas Ekman
Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

Okay. That's very clear. On the store expansion, the 10-15 stores we talked about, is that a gross or a net number? Do you expect there will be any big difference in gross or net, i.e., will there be a lot of store closures?

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

Yeah.

Niklas Ekman
Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

You mentioned Willys, there. Is that, can you even give a number for the number of stores in Willys?

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

not more than a clear majority. We have announced also a few Hemköp and Snabbgross. We will see how this, but we, the line that we have is a clear majority of Willys. You know, what we're looking forward as we go on. It is a gross number in terms of number of stores, but I don't see any large deviation from gross and net.

Niklas Ekman
Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

Super clear. Thank you for taking my questions.

Operator

The next question comes from Daniel Schmidt from Danske Bank Markets. Please go ahead.

Daniel Schmidt
Senior Analyst, Danske Bank Markets

There's a couple of questions from me. On the gross margin, clearly, sort of, producer prices are hurting you in terms of the lead time and the lag to move up your prices. Is that half of the sort of discrepancy versus last year? Is the other half more campaign-related sales as a % of the total, you think?

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

Without giving you a number, I think it's a very relevant question, Daniel, because we haven't talked much about it, I think. If you're looking at the 4Q in general, you know that it's a seasonally more weaker quarter due to higher activities and campaigns in the market in general up for Christmas. Obviously, when campaigns is more attractive, you're seeing a somewhat higher impact from the campaigns than normally in the 4Q.

Daniel Schmidt
Senior Analyst, Danske Bank Markets

Yeah. Okay, good. On that topic maybe, private label versus share of sustainability labeled products, have sort of shifted places a bit during the year. Is that also impacting the gross margin, you think?

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

Well-

Daniel Schmidt
Senior Analyst, Danske Bank Markets

Is that sort of neutral or is that a gain even, in terms of losing on the one on sustainability and winning on the private label?

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

I think-

Daniel Schmidt
Senior Analyst, Danske Bank Markets

Is that a wash or?

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

Yeah. I would say it's not a major impact. Now, if you look at our private label development during the year and also during the 4Q, I think we are, you know, we are seeing a significantly higher interest in low price and private label products. It's not like you're jumping up. It's a, you know, kind of a 1 percentage points difference. It gradually more slowly going up. It doesn't give you that much of an impact on the gross margin in that in this period. Sustainability products, I don't. It varies very much. I won't say that that makes a difference either.

Daniel Schmidt
Senior Analyst, Danske Bank Markets

It's not sort of the case that you used to have higher profitability on organic food rather than sort of a normal assortment?

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

No. you know, we also putting a lot of effort in and it's kind of our core to drive sustainability and drive sustainable labeled products. Of course it's an important factor for us, where we try to drive that as much as we can. Unfortunately, as you see, there are still price points on these areas, on these products that they are higher and consumers are today moving away slightly from that, which we think is worrisome, particularly for both health and the environment.

Daniel Schmidt
Senior Analyst, Danske Bank Markets

Thanks. That's all for me, Anders and Klas. Thank you.

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

Thank you. Thanks.

Operator

The next question comes from Simen Aas from DNB. Please go ahead.

Simen Aas
Senior Analyst, DNB

Good morning, guys. First, a quick one from me. Could you just give us some indications on how Q1 has started? I think, in both terms of revenue and margin and market dynamics. Is the trend similar to Q4 or have anything changed?

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

I understand you ask the question, but, as we have decided not to report monthly numbers, you'll have to wait till April before I comment on that.

Simen Aas
Senior Analyst, DNB

Yeah. Okay. Okay. That's fair. Just to get some flavor then on the Q4 gross margin. Could you just give us some flavor on kind of how the gross margin developed in the various segments? Was there any major differences between, for instance, Willys and Hemköp? How should we think about this going forward as well?

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

I think that, yeah, the, you know, one of our, obviously most important KPIs is to track how we are performing on our pricing position versus the market. We are keeping that, and we are driving that agenda. To a direct answer to your question, it's fairly in par with this concept regarding impact on gross margin.

Simen Aas
Senior Analyst, DNB

Yeah. Okay. You don't see any major differences then. For instance, is broad-based? That's what I'm looking at there. Willys is not keeping the margin better than Hemköp due to private label or something like that?

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

No.

Simen Aas
Senior Analyst, DNB

Do you get where I'm going?

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

That's, it goes hand in hand. I mean, obviously this reflects on how the market is moving up based from the suppliers' price inflation. We're following that.

Simen Aas
Senior Analyst, DNB

Okay. Yeah. Yeah. Thank you. That's very clear. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Magnus Råman from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.

Magnus Råman
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Thank you. Yeah, that should be Kepler Cheuvreux. My first question relates to what you started to indicate when talking about passing on inflation. I mean, I think you mentioned a few times here that also there is a competitive situation that you take into account. Could you comment then on ICA's move to save SEK 1 billion that can be invested in customer prices, implies roughly 1% cut to total pricing? Well, how are you responding to this? Also, do you expect more of this type of initiatives to come in the coming time?

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

I think no, I will not comment on ICA. I think in general terms, it is a competitive market. It has been a very competitive market during 2022. I think we are pleased with what we are doing. We're also pleased in terms of how we are meeting our customers. I think, you know, the numbers clearly says it all in terms of how the consumer is also appreciating our offer. With that said, I am sure, as we've said earlier on, that price value will be even more important in this market. Of course we are in that part of the segment, pleased to have Willys.

Magnus Råman
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Right. Good, good answer. Just a bit more technical question here. You write in the board that structural costs were higher than expected, mainly due to upward rent indexation for your existing warehouses, which are then, you know, being replaced now by Borlänge. I'm just a little bit surprised that you explained the higher IACs in Q4 with this because I thought that these indexations were due at year-end. Could you explain that?

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

Should I go for it? Should I try or?

Anders Lexmon
CFO, Axfood

Yeah.

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

If I understood you right, I mean, think we have. When we are saying it's higher, it's just because we had a guidance on the number. When we reviewed it in the end of the year and looking at the cost that we're getting now due to the high indexation that came in, actually was decided in, I think early November or end of October. That is just a technical reason for it when we saw what the. 'Cause these are the warehouses that we are closing down, but obviously we have some rents there that we are taking into this number, so that's the reason. Did that make sense? If we understood you right?

Magnus Råman
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yeah. You are then talking about the upcoming IACs because I thought you were then explaining why the IACs in Q4 was higher.

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

No.

Anders Lexmon
CFO, Axfood

That's not the case.

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

No, it was the higher, cost for One-off cost.

Anders Lexmon
CFO, Axfood

Some of the structural costs that we have now in Q4 is corresponding to rental cost in 2023. We take that cost now and obviously.

Magnus Råman
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

All right.

Anders Lexmon
CFO, Axfood

the higher rental level is affecting these figures as well.

Magnus Råman
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

All right. It makes more sense. You are doing upfront, booking of.

Anders Lexmon
CFO, Axfood

Yeah

Magnus Råman
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

of these costs then. That's the reason.

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

We are doing upfront because of the closing, logistic, centers we have.

Magnus Råman
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yeah. Would it be fair then to understand it as these SEK 250 is your sort of, budgeted or deemed, operational cost for the old structure that is bound to be wound up?

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

Will you take that again, Magnus, please?

Magnus Råman
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yes. Shall I then understand it as these SEK 250 million expected for 2023-

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

Yes

Magnus Råman
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

IACs is essentially what you budget in type of operational cost for the old warehouse structure that you aim to shut down?

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

Yeah, that's correct.

Magnus Råman
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Excellent. I just had, just following on to previous questions of sourcing inflation. I mean, the FAO index that is looking at the food commodities has been falling now sequentially for nine months in a row, and I believe it also turned to a slight minus on year-on-year metrics in December. As you alluded to before, it's still higher than the pandemic level, of course. Do you see any forward signs of sort of an easing sourcing inflation situation or easing price pressures from your suppliers, on the back of these actual clear indications in the raw material markets?

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

As I said, that's what I hope for. Again, you know, in the early part of this year, we don't see it, but I think you're pointing out that the trend is shifting a bit. Obviously, I think we all need to remind ourselves that when you're looking at some of these numbers, you need also to calculate into other effects, like currency that we are now facing with a very weak Swedish krona, still high energy and fuel costs, et cetera. There are many things that is impacting obviously. Positively, if it starts to turn down, and we also start to see a more balanced cost for energy, fuels, et cetera, we should start to see a more balanced inflation.

Magnus Råman
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

All right. Great. Just a final one then if you. I think I maybe have been asking this before, but you now mentioned you expect to have a best-in-class logistical platform. I assume that means that you expect to have a higher efficiency, i.e. lower cost per head of unit in this fulfillment center than any of your competitors. Could you elaborate a little bit? Not maybe then compared to competitors, et cetera, you don't want to do that. Give some kind of lead of how you budget sort of cost per head of the unit or whatever the KPIs you run, compared to your old structure. For example, more interestingly, compared to the cost per unit you might have observed in the Bergendahls logistics at the point of acquisition, please.

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

Well, I understand your interest. That's also kind of the negative of being, my interest is also to not give too much of information to my competitors in terms of all the KPIs we have. Fair to say that we think with the step we are now taking, with an optimized warehouse handling three temperature zones in one area, including also an omni-channel structure with e-com, where we get the flexibility, depending on how e-com is developing. Obviously that we think give us a competitive edge. We have, as you've seen, also, sent out the numbers that we think from a cost base this will gain in terms of efficiency. We are clearly more efficient than in the old structure.

Magnus Råman
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay. I will be satisfied with that answer. Thank you.

Klas Balkow
President and CEO, Axfood

Thank you. With that, if I understood you right, we have no further questions. Let me then just say thank you for listening in. Hope you have a good day. Thanks a lot.

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