Eolus Aktiebolag (publ) (STO:EOLU.B)
Sweden flag Sweden · Delayed Price · Currency is SEK
40.45
+1.10 (2.80%)
At close: Apr 24, 2026
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ABGSC Investor Days

Dec 4, 2024

Lara Mohtadi
Equity Research Analyst, ABG

Hi, and welcome back, everybody, to ABG's Investor Days. My name is Lara, and I'm an analyst here at ABG. Here with me today, I have Per Witalisson, who is the CEO of Eolus Vind, and he will give us a short presentation of the company, and this will be followed up by a shorter Q&A. Please go ahead.

Per Witalisson
CEO, Eolus Vind

Thank you, Lara. Thanks for having us. I'm Per Witalisson, CEO of Eolus. I've been with the company since 2006 in various positions. I've been CEO since 2012. It's been a really exciting journey within Eolus and within the industry. Most of it still lies ahead of us for decades to come. That's why I've chosen this picture to start with, as an illustration of the power of renewable energy and what renewable energy can contribute to the energy system. This is a project in California, northeast of Los Angeles, where Eolus bought into the repowering rights. Here at this site, there was an old wind farm with 400 old wind turbines constructed in 1985. We decommissioned all turbines, replaced them with 13 new turbines, one, three, 13. We could reuse power lines, a lot of the transformer and the electrical grid infrastructure.

These 13 turbines produce four times more electricity than compared to what the 400 old turbines did. So that shows the technological development of wind power in just those few decades. That makes things in the industry very interesting and makes Eolus a very interesting company, I would say. Eolus is a pure-play developer of renewable energy. That means that we develop projects from greenfield, from the start of the project. We find the place to develop projects. We do permitting, optimization, procurement. We can secure long-term power price hedges. And we construct and sell the assets, but we're not the owner of the operating facilities. So our aim is to have a flexible and asset-light business model. We've been in the industry since 1990, so everything we do should be based on our 35 years of experience from the industry.

Project development takes a very long time, very long lead times. So I say to be a successful developer, you need a large project portfolio of high quality and tremendous amounts of patience. And Eolus has both of those assets, I would say. We're active in seven countries: in the Nordics, Baltics, Finland, a small project in Spain, and a quite unique position for being a Nordic developer, I would say, in the US, where we're mainly active in the southwestern US. We're around 140 employees. We've grown very fast in the recent years. And we have a total portfolio of projects of 26 gigawatts, roughly. And we have constructed around 800 wind turbines over the years. So I would guess that equals like 12%, 13% of the wind turbines in Sweden today.

And as I said, we don't own operating assets ourselves, but we perform asset management services on behalf of our customers, where we can provide both technical, commercial, and administrative services to them. A lot of our customers, especially financial institutions like pension funds, insurance companies, they don't want to build up their own operational departments. So they want us to take care of the asset technically and commercially. And this gives us, of course, a lot more insights about how the projects are operating. And if we are performing our services well, it gives us the possibility to have a very near relationship with our customers and potential repeat deals. So this means that roughly between three and four terawatt-hours of yearly production flows through our surveillance and operation center in Halmstad. So quite a significant volume.

What makes Eolus exciting and the industry exciting, I would say, is to be in the crossroad of the global mega trends of electrification and sustainability, with global incredibly large needs to transform the energy system, and if we start looking at electrification, it is being forecasted that the use of electricity will more than double in both Europe and in North America until 2050, and if we look at costs for renewable, it is decreasing. You can see that to the right. Old technologies are decreasing, and in most markets, it is the cheapest way to add new electricity production is to do with renewable energy, and when we can outcompete fossil-based sources, the market, of course, gets even larger, and in many markets, onshore wind and solar PV are the only new production sources that can meet grid parity.

That means that can be built on purely market-based conditions. We have a mix of technologies. So we're working with onshore wind, which is the basis in our portfolio. We have a significant portion of offshore wind and solar PV and energy storage projects, mainly battery storage. And if we look to the Nordic countries, onshore wind will definitely be the cheapest technology for decades to come. But if we are to meet the planning target of reaching that the government has set up of more than doubling the electricity production in Sweden until 2045, a lot of offshore wind will definitely be needed. To meet, just to illustrate it, to meet that target and taking into consideration the phase-out of current facilities, it means that we need to add about 10 terawatts of new production each year.

That equals the size of the largest Swedish nuclear reactor, Oskarshamn 3. So that would mean that we would have to add one nuclear reactor of that size each year, 2024, 2025, 2026, and onwards until 2045. That is, of course, not possible. It is not possible to do it with just onshore wind or with offshore wind for that sake. A mix of technologies will be needed. Of course, the aim for government and for society should, of course, be to do this as a robust system at the lowest possible price for that lowest possible price for consumers and industries. If we look at it market-wise, we have roughly 40% of our portfolio in Sweden and a sizable share of it in Finland. We have some good projects in the Baltic states.

Poland is a very interesting market for us due to the size of the country and the apparent need to change their power system from coal-based production and with decisions to phase out coal until 2049. We have a significant exposure to the U.S. market, where we're mainly active with projects in the southwestern states of Arizona, California, and Nevada. I mentioned our business model earlier, but I want to emphasize that we are a developer of projects. We are more or less agnostic when it comes to technologies, but we have to make up our minds what technology will solve the problem or contribute the best at the time in the future when they are permitted and ready to be constructed. Our firm belief is that it will often be a combination, a mix of technologies.

We can do that either as standalone projects or to combine them as hybrid projects, for instance, with wind and batteries co-located or with also wind batteries and solar PV in combinations. We do all development at our own risk. We find the sites that we think are the best to develop a project with the best wind resources if it's wind production and with the best possibilities to connect to the grid and regarding the infrastructure, etc. We optimize projects, do procurement, etc. In the ideal world, we sell the projects at ready to build. Then we construct on behalf of our customers, but they are financing the construction. If we manage to do that, we can have a real asset-light business model where we can run several projects in parallel.

We're doing all our activities based on strong partnerships with both the largest landowners in each market, with the Tier 1 turbine suppliers, and with a lot of customers and partners where we can do repeat deals. Here are some projects that we have been working on and completed during the last year. You see that it's a mix of geography, a mix of technologies. We work with the largest turbine suppliers in the world: Vestas, Siemens Gamesa, Nordex, could be General Electric for that sake as well. In the column PPA off-taker, you have some names of partners who we have entered into long-term price hedges for selling the power for the projects. You see both tech companies like Google and Amazon that we have done deals with on both sides of the Atlantic.

But most important, I would say, is to look at companies like Alcoa and Hydro, very energy-intense industries that are really, really focused on the lowest possible price to secure competitiveness for their aluminum melting plants in Europe to make them competitive towards all other facilities around the world. And when we can deliver electricity from new built wind power plants at the costs that are really attractive for that type of actors, it really shows the strength of the business. And further to the right, you see some of the logos from customers. MEAG is the asset manager of Munich Re, one of the world's largest reinsurance companies. So we've done a lot of repeat deals with them. There are a lot of financial investors like Aquila Capital for KGAL, for example. But also we see a trend now that more and more utilities are investing here.

So we've done, for instance, deals with the Swiss utilities, BKW and EWZ. And then I would like to turn to some of the projects that we are working on now and with some highlights. We have developed and sold a really large solar PV and battery storage project in Arizona called Centennial Flats. It's a $1.2 billion investment for our customer. So it's way too large for Eolus to build or to take risk in ourselves. So we've sold the project rights. We get paid by milestone payments as the project progresses. And in November, so in our Q4, we received a milestone payment of $64 million when the investor decided to start construction of the project. And we have announced that this is expected to have a positive impact on Eolus' operating profit in Q4 with $51 million. So that equals roughly SEK 20 per share.

So it's really large for us. We have three wind projects in Sweden under construction where we started construction during the spring. They are in the attractive price area three in the southern part of Sweden. The Fågelås project is the project just located west of the Lake Vättern with extremely good wind resources. And that is the highest tower, the highest tip height that we have built so far in Eolus. So a project with fantastic production. And we're looking to conclude the sales transactions of those projects in Q1. And back to the U.S., we are constructing a standalone battery storage project of 100 megawatts with 400 megawatt hours of energy in the San Diego area. You can see the current status of the installation up to the left.

This is a roughly $200 million investment, but we have financed it through a separate project finance agreement in an American bank of $175 million. It's fully financed. We are in the sales process and are expecting to have this project sold during Q1 and also that the project will be taken into operation during Q1. This, of course, if you look at our balance sheet in the Q3 report, it is really, really large because we have roughly SEK 1.6 billion on the asset side for this project in work in progress. We have, of course, the bank loan on the passive side with roughly SEK 1.3 billion . Eolus is a financially stable company. There is a lot of volatility in revenue and in result during the quarters. For instance, for the first three quarters of 2024, they were all loss quarters.

But with what I said about Centennial Flats earlier, if nothing unexpected happens, it's quite clear that Q4 will bring a really good result and that we will have a decent year for 2024. And to the right, you can see the full year figures for 2023. That was the best year so far in Eolus' history. We have normally an equity to assets ratio ranging around 50%, and Eolus has been paying dividends for the last, I think, at least 13, 14 years. And we have a dividend policy saying that we should pay out on average 20%-50% of the net profits and that we thereby are willing to invest 50%-80% into new development projects. So why invest in Eolus? The macro trends of sustainability and electrification speak for the industry.

We have a proven track record and a strong organization with a lot of committed employees. The business model is set to reduce risk in the projects, and we have a diversified project portfolio over the markets and a financially, overall financially sound company. We are working with the new business plan for the year 2025 to 2027, and we will communicate new financial targets for that period in connection with our Q4 report. Thank you all for listening.

Lara Mohtadi
Equity Research Analyst, ABG

Thank you. Unfortunately, we're running out of time, so I will not have time to ask any questions, but feel free to grab Per afterwards. Thank you, Per. Thanks a lot.

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