Eolus Aktiebolag (publ) (STO:EOLU.B)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2022

Feb 16, 2023

Operator

Welcome to Eolus' Q4 report 2 022. For the first part of the conference call, the participants will be in listen-only mode. During the question- and- answer session, participants are able to ask questions by dialing star five on their telephone keypad. Now, I will hand the conference over to CEO Per Witalisson and CFO Catharina Persson. Please go ahead.

Per Witalisson
CEO, Eolus

Thank you and welcome to the pre-presentation from Eolus regarding the Q4 report 2022. We had net sales for the quarter amounting to SEK 366 million . For the full year, the net sales amounted to almost SEK 2.4 billion . We had a net profit for the quarter of SEK 41 million . For the full year, the net profit amounted to SEK 160 million . We had a growth of the portfolio of 4 GW.

The Board of Directors is proposing a dividend for the year 2022 of SEK 1.5 per share, which is unchanged compared to last year. Eolus is definitely a financially sound company . We had an equity- to- asset ratio of 54%, good net cash per position at the year-end. The total development portfolio now reaches almost 22,000 MW. Just a short introduction to Eolus. We're a developer of renewable energy. We've been in business since 1990, so more than 30 years in the industry. Everything we are doing should be based on that experience.

We have so far built more than 660 turbines. We're doing asset management services on behalf of our customers, including a volume of more than 1.5 GW. We develop projects from greenfield. We take them through permitting. When they are ready to build, we sell projects. We construct them on behalf of the investors, which can be utilities or financial investors. We operate them on behalf of these investors technically and commercially. We don't have a specific target to own operating assets ourselves. We're active within the technologies, onshore wind, offshore wind, solar PV, and energy storage.

From now on and going forward, we will see much more of combinations of technologies to serve the system in the best way. We're active in Sweden, the Nordic countries, the Baltics, and in the U.S. Listed at the Nasdaq exchange in Stockholm with a market cap of around SEK 2.4 billion and with around 37,000 shareholders. The most significant event during Q4 was the sale of our solar and battery storage project in Arizona. This is the third sale we are doing in the U.S. We've been in the market since 2015.

We have developed a pipeline of projects which is maturing in a good way. We have been able to do these three transactions. It's one wind project that we have built and completed earlier. It's a sale of a standalone battery storage project and now this huge solar and battery storage project of roughly 750 MW. Commissioning is currently planned for 2025. We have sold the membership units in the company that owns the project rights. We have received during the Q4 an initial payment of $12 million.

We expect to receive additional purchase price paid as milestone payments, depending on the progress of the project. Provided that the project develops and that execution goes according to plan, the total purchase price that we estimate for the project ranges $104 million-$190 million . Where we expect to receive the remaining payments spread out during 2023- 2025. U.S. is a hot market at the moment since the introduction of the Inflation Reduction Act this summer, which is a historical boost of the market and to enable the transition of the U.S. energy system.

We're well-positioned in that market, and we expect to see significant shares of our revenues and profits for the coming years coming from the American portfolio. In line with our business plan for 2022-2024, we are investing heavily in projects and growing the organization with skilled and committed people to develop the projects. We have strengthened the organization during the autumn with Inga Abolina as Head of the Baltics, and Christer Baden Hansen, who has just recently joined as Chief Commercial Officer. Christer is also a member of the Group Management Team.

Most of the growth of the portfolio during the quarter comes from offshore projects that have advanced in the permitting process and therefore qualified into the portfolio. During the quarter, we announced a joint venture to develop with the Simply Blue Group to co-develop offshore wind projects in the Baltic Sea. The joint venture covers four projects in Swedish and Finnish waters. This is a part of the strategy to have a mix of projects for different technologies and for different time frames. These projects are will be designed for floating technology, so they're further out to the sea.

It's projects that hopefully will be ready to be built during the 2030s. Our view is that onshore wind is definitely the cheapest way in the Nordics to produce new renewable electricity and the quickest way to do it than offshore wind and will bottom-fixed offshore in more shallow waters would come next. For the really huge volumes for the decades to come, then floating technology will probably be needed.

We see also a lot of combinations of technologies and integration between solar PV, battery components, hydrogen production, etc., to make the facilities serve the needs of grid and society and customers in a better way. We also received research permits for two offshore wind projects in Finland. It's the first one, Wellamo, which is one of the projects in the joint venture with the Simply Blue Group. Tuulia is a project that we have developed ourselves in the Finnish economic zone. So that is for bottom-fixed technology.

The speed that these projects have been developed, we can just note that the process has been much quicker in Finland than it has been in Sweden. So Sweden has a lot to catch up with if we are going to meet the targets for increased renewable electricity and to meet the transition needed, and the requirements from the industries for renewable power at affordable prices and attractive conditions. On the offshore side, we also started a co-development of an Latvian offshore project called Kurzeme, where we teamed up with a German developer, PNE, for this project.

Regarding the Øyfjellet project in Norway, the large 400 MW project, all turbines were taken over from Nordex by our customer in September 2022. We've reached a degree of completion of 95%. That means that remaining revenues and costs are expected to be around SEK 200 million. As we have communicated earlier, we don't expect any significant effect on net margin from the remaining works. Preparations for final takeover are ongoing and our works remaining to do is mainly related to service, construction of service buildings and some rectifying work that can be done after the winter. The Stor-Skälsjön project is under construction and expected it to reach completion late 2023.

We have performed almost all the civil works, and we're ready for start of delivery of the turbines in which will commence in May. Eolus owns 50%- 51% of the construction of the project. We've sold in earlier during 2022, we've sold all our shares in the project company to MEAG and Hydro Rein, which are the owners of the project. Eolus and Hydro Rein are jointly constructing the project. It is on schedule and on budget, and we're as I said, ready for delivery of the turbines. Our business plan covers the year 2022 to 2024, we can now summarize the first year.

We in our report, we comment on the outcome of the financial targets that we have communicated a year ago. The first target is to the sales of at least 1,000 MW per year on average during the 2022 to 2024. That we achieved by selling the Stor-Skälsjön project and the 750 MW project in Arizona. The second goal is more long-term and a growth target that we are showing that we are scaling up and that we should. We have a target to sell 1,500 MW per year on average compared to 1,000 MW during these first three years.

That is the main reason why we are scaling up project portfolio and the teams to develop, construct, and sell all these projects. We have a strong focus on the development of existing and new project, so we should be well-prepared to achieve this target. Return on equity shall exceed 10% per year on average. We did not achieve that during the year. And that is mainly due to the write- down of the Øyfjellet project margins during spring 2022. The equity ratio at G roup level shall exceed 30%. We achieved that by far, we had an equity ratio of 54% at the year-end and quite okay net cash position.

Finally, Eolus' dividend over time shall follow the earnings and correspond to 20%-50% of the Group profit after tax. We are following our dividend policy, and the Board has proposed a dividend of SEK 1.50 per share, totaling SEK 37.4 million for 2022. I have mentioned the increase of the portfolio already, and it has grown by 4 GW during the quarter. Of course, it becomes big volumes and big numbers when we add offshore projects that qualify into the project portfolio. So you can see that portfolio split by technologies and the geographic market presence.

To guide about the mid-term views, we communicate about our late-stage development projects with expected COD 2024- 2026 roughly. As you can see, there's a lot of Swedish onshore wind at the top of the table. Further down, there are Swedish and Polish solar PV projects, Finnish and Latvian onshore wind projects, and U.S. projects being mainly solar and battery storage projects and combinations of them.

Noteworthy is to note the number 13 and 14, Centennial Flats and Cald. They are projects that we have sold, but they have not yet started construction, and we have remaining revenues to collect from those projects. That's why they are still on this list. We have almost 800 MW under construction, since we still include the Øyfjellet project in that definition, although the project is in operation since autumn 2022. I thereby hand over to Catharina to give more detailed comments on the financial side.

Catharina Persson
CFO, Eolus

Thank you, Per. Hi, everyone. I will guide you through the figures and also highlight some of them for Eolus' fourth quarter 2022. Now you can see the income statement. The net sales was SEK 366 million. It decreased with SEK 643 million in comparison with the same period last year. Revenue recognition from Øyfjellet project in Norway and from the construction and management agreement of Stor-Skälsjön in Sweden is included according to the increased percentage of completion. As Per mentioned, for Øyfjellet, it is 5% during the quarter, and for Stor-Skälsjön, also 5%. In total, Øyfjellet has a percentage of completion of 95% and Stor-Skälsjön of 27%. Now, regarding the construction of Stor-Skälsjön, hall stands, foundations, and roads are completed.

We had the successful sale of our solar and battery storage project in the U.S. in October that has contributed to the revenue recognition for the quarter. We have an operating profit of SEK 27 million for the quarter, and expenses for Eolus Group are continuing to be in line with our expectations in order to reach the targets set out in the business plan for 2022- 2024. Net from financial items for the quarter was SEK 31 million. Eolus has divested its minority stake of 10% in Långmarken, and the result is included in the net financial items. Net profit for the period was SEK 41 million. We have the balance sheet. Total fixed assets amounted to SEK 161 million.

When it come to work in progress and projects under development, was SEK 772 million, advanced payments to suppliers have increased during the quarter to SEK 230 million. The construction of the Swedish wind power projects, Skallberget, Utterberget, Tjärnäs, and Rosenskog are included in these items, and we are focusing on the divestment of these projects. We had cash of SEK 568 million in December, and total assets amounts to SEK 1,919 million. Total equity was SEK 1,044 million, whereof equity of SEK 61 million is related to minority stakeholders. We also had interest-bearing liabilities of SEK 310 million. To the key figures, the net sale for quarter four is divided into Eolus' two segments.

We had a net sales for product development of SEK 359 million, with an operating profit of SEK 35 million. Net sale for asset management services, SEK 8 million, and operating profit of SEK 2 million. We had earnings per share for the quarter, SEK 1.66, and equity per share about SEK 39. We still have a good net cash position of SEK 258 million. For the financial year 2022, the Board of Directors, it proposes dividend of SEK 1.5 per share, total of SEK 37.4 million. That follows the Eolus policy that dividends over a period of time corresponds to 20%-50% of Group's net profit.

The decision regarding the dividend will be made at the annual meeting that will be held in Hässleholm at May 12th . During the last year, we are investing heavily in employees to grow the organization at all our markets where we're established. During 2022, the average number of employees was 76. We have order backlog of about SEK 1.3 billion, and we have asset management assignments of 882 MW. Eolus has a strong balance sheet with the equity ratio of 54%. This means that we have a strong foundation for the ongoing expansion and future plans. Return on equity after tax is negative due to the negative result related to shareholders of Eolus. We have the degree on completion that you can see on the slide.

We have 794 MW under construction year-end. Stor-Skälsjön, 260 MW in total of the degree on completion was 27%. That means that we have another 63% to account for before the project is completed during 2023 or late 2023. The rest of the projects besides Stor-Skälsjön and Önusberget amounts to 132MW , and they are categorized as under construction due to that we have signed turbine contracts. As you can see, neither Skallberget, Utterberget, Tjärnäs, nor Rosenskog are fulfilling the requirements for percentage of completion. The revenue recognition will start when agreements with customers are signed and when we reach predefined construction milestones. I hand over to Per again.

Per Witalisson
CEO, Eolus

Thank you, Catarina. To wrap it up, here you can see some of the team members from Eolus, highly skilled and committed, gathered for a team conference last autumn. We have reached a level now where we have passed 100 employees in the beginning of January. Catarina commented the sale of the minority stake in the Långmarken wind farm. It was a good process. We got a good price, and it contributed to the financial profit of the quarter. We are welcoming Glenmont Partners as a new customer to our asset management business.

We'll keep on to provide the services for the entire wind farm to them. We have acquired and developed new wind projects in Poland. From the start, our portfolio in Poland was mainly solar PV projects due to shorter permitting lead times and easier access to the grid. Over time, we are developing a larger modern wind portfolio in Poland as well. We have started to develop new solar projects in both Poland and Sweden. Sales process for Skallberget, Utterberget, Tjärnäs and Rosenskog are ongoing. They are 125 MW in total.

The delivery of turbines will start during April and May for these projects. As soon as we sell them, you can expect the degree of completion to increase to a level in line with the Stor-Skälsjön project . Next in line in the sales transactions will be the Swedish wind projects Fågelås, Boarp and Dållebo, where we, just the other week, received the final permit for the Dållebo project. That's all. Thank you for listening in, and we'll open up for questions.

Operator

If you wish to ask a question, please dial star five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial star five again on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Olof Cederholm from ABG Sundal Collier. Please go ahead.

Olof Cederholm
Co-Head of Equities, ABG Sundal Collier

Hi, Per and Catharina. A couple of questions from my side. Per, I did hear you talking about the projects that are in the sales process for now. Do you think you'll be able to achieve 1,000 MW sold also in 2023, or should we think about, you know, your guidance of average per year as more back-end loaded from here? That's my first question.

Per Witalisson
CEO, Eolus

Yes. The target is formulated as average, but we definitely aim to reach it for each year, definitely.

Olof Cederholm
Co-Head of Equities, ABG Sundal Collier

Very good. On the U.S. battery project, we have considerable milestone payments ahead. Could you give some indications how we should think about the timing of these milestone payments? And I mean, obviously, you can't give quarterly guidance here, but could you give us a sense maybe how many milestones we're talking about over the next two to three years?

Per Witalisson
CEO, Eolus

We haven't announced it in further detail, but we expect the next milestone during 2023. Milestones are tied to start of construction and to commercial operation of the facility.

Olof Cederholm
Co-Head of Equities, ABG Sundal Collier

Okay. Essentially, we're talking about two milestones from here.

Per Witalisson
CEO, Eolus

They're more than two.

Olof Cederholm
Co-Head of Equities, ABG Sundal Collier

More than two. Okay. There are milestones connected to ongoing construction as well?

Per Witalisson
CEO, Eolus

Yes. There is a first milestone connected to some conditions for the product development being fulfilled, and there is for investment decision taken by the investor and for commercial operation. Those are the main milestones at least.

Olof Cederholm
Co-Head of Equities, ABG Sundal Collier

Excellent. Then lastly, the operating cost level is coming up according to your plan. Is the Q4 level of personnel and external cost level a good reflection of what's going to come in 2023, or should we expect these two cost items to increase further?

Per Witalisson
CEO, Eolus

We are scaling up, so I can comment on a general level. When we, as I mentioned, we have exceeded 100 employees in January. You could expect that the staff costs will increase more compared to the Q4. We've also have almost doubled the team members now, the headcount during 2022. We foresee a slower growth in recruitment for the coming years.

Olof Cederholm
Co-Head of Equities, ABG Sundal Collier

Yeah. Excellent. The other external costs, I suppose those are related to consultancy costs, etc , regarding project development. Should those increase as well as your scope expands?

Per Witalisson
CEO, Eolus

In general, we're aiming to do more and more in-house. As we grow, we can have more resources. It's possible for us to have experts and more of those resources in-house. Of course, scaling up will mean more costs. We can expect that, but not so much.

Olof Cederholm
Co-Head of Equities, ABG Sundal Collier

Okay. Excellent. Thank you. That's all from me.

Operator

As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please dial star five on your telephone keypad. There are no more questions at this time. I hand the conference back to CEO Per Witalisson for any closing comments.

Per Witalisson
CEO, Eolus

Yes. We had a comment in the chat from Jan Rydén. Reading, do you have any view on the timing on the final delivery of the Øyfjellet? Can you say anything on how the final delivery on Øyfjellet should impact your working capital? A question regarding the offshore wind parks in Finland that are added to the portfolio. How do you see the main milestones in getting the projects into a sales phase? To comment first on Øyfjellet, we don't give any guidance regarding the timing on final delivery of the project.

We reiterate that there should be roughly SEK 200 million or slightly more revenues to be recorded to reach 100% degree of completion and roughly the same number as project costs. We don't expect any with the current view, we don't expect any margin left from the project, neither positive or negative. All the remaining costs are and construction is financed by our customers. It will not have an impact on our working capital or cash flow. Regarding the offshore new offshore project in Finland, we are spending resources on development and permitting, environmental impact assessment studies, and etc .

Our aim is like for all offshore projects to develop them to a permitted status or to ready-to-build status and to sell at that point. It could be possible that we also team up with other partners earlier than that if we find good opportunities.

Catharina Persson
CFO, Eolus

We have the next question.

Per Witalisson
CEO, Eolus

Yeah.

Catharina Persson
CFO, Eolus

Should I answer that one, Per?

Per Witalisson
CEO, Eolus

Yeah. Yes.

Catharina Persson
CFO, Eolus

Yeah, it's correct that we have a question that can you explain the adjustment of the result with respect to the minority shareholders, and how come that is larger than the result itself? Will this adjustment remain in the coming years? That amount is referring to when we sold the Stor-Skälsjön wind project , where Eolus owns 51% of the total project. Regarding how that should be accounted for, we needed to, as it's been fully consolidated in Eolus' books, we needed to also have the results from the minority stakeholders in the consolidated profit and loss for Eolus.

That's correct that in the full year can see that we have a net profit for the period of SEK 116 million for the total group, where of, the amount of SEK 122 million is related to the minority stakeholders for the rest of the 49% of Stor-Skälsjön project sale. Will this adjustment remain the coming years? It depends on how we are owning the projects, as we sold our stake in Stor-Skälsjön wind, and we don't have any other co-owned projects that has been sold in fourth quarter or also not after we sold the Stor-Skälsjön. It depend on the structure of the ownership in the future, but not as is the project portfolio is at the moment.

Per Witalisson
CEO, Eolus

Okay. Thank you, Catarina. Thank you all for listening out in.

Catharina Persson
CFO, Eolus

Thank you, everyone.

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