Swiss Life Holding AG (SWX:SLHN)
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Apr 27, 2026, 5:30 PM CET
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Earnings Call: H2 2019

Feb 28, 2020

Speaker 1

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Swiss live presentation of the Full Year Results 2019 Conference Call and Live Webcast. I am Shay, the Chorus Call operator. I would like to remind you that all participants will be in listen only mode and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a Q and A session. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast.

At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Mr. Patrick Frost, Group CEO of Sys Life. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Dear analysts and investors, welcome to our call on our 2019 annual results. Thank you for giving us the opportunity to present our business performance. As usual, I shall first mention a few key aspects of the results before handing over to our CFO, Matthias Erik. He will go through the figures for 2019 in detail, after which we will both be available to questions and answers. Swiss Life can look back on a very successful financial year.

Overall, net profit came to CHF 1,200,000,000, which was 12% higher than the previous year. Our adjusted profit from operations rose by 10% to 1 point $69,000,000,000 The main driver was our fee results. And furthermore, all segments contributed to the increase in profit from operations, which I naturally find especially gratifying. Fee income rose by 16% to $1,820,000,000 This produced a fee result of $553,000,000 up 15%. Swiss Life asset managers with net new assets in third party asset management of $8,900,000,000 and our independent financial advisers were the main contributors.

We were also able to improve our risk result with an increase of 3% to $417,000,000 Furthermore, we were able to increase the value of new business by 45% to $561,000,000 This is primarily due to the exceptional new business production in the Group Life business in Switzerland. A large extraordinary and one off increase in single premiums last year that we've already mentioned several times in the past resulted from the withdrawal of a competitor from the full insurance business. We therefore expect overall premiums to be lower in 2020. Other KPIs set out in our Swiss Life 2021 group wide program indicate that performance has been very positive. We again improved operational efficiency, as you can see on Slide 4.

We estimate our FST ratio to be slightly above 200% at the beginning of the year, and we increased the cash remittance to the holding company by 8% to $752,000,000 Our success is also paying off for our shareholders. At the AGM, the Board of Directors will propose a dividend increase from CHF 16.50 to CHF 20 paid in cash, bringing our dividend payout ratio, another target figure for Swiss Life 2021 to 53%, which is within the target range of 50% to 60%. The strong solvency as well as the cash situation and development at the holding company enabled Twist Life to launch a new share buyback program totaling $400,000,000 We'll start this new share buyback this March and plan to complete it by May of next year. Ladies and gentlemen, I'm very happy with these results. The strong commitment of our employees enables us to make progress in all strategic thrusts of the Swiss Life 2021 program.

I now hand over to our CFO, Matija Senek.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Patrick. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I will now provide more details on our 2019 results. Please note that all figures quoted are in Swiss francs unless I state otherwise. Let me start with an overview of our P and L on Slide 7.

Gross written premiums, fees and deposits received increased by 22% in local currency to CHF 23,000,000,000 This exceptional growth was mainly driven by our Swiss Group Life business. Fee and commission income was up by fee and commission income was up by 16% in local currency to $1,800,000,000 primarily due to the strong contribution from asset managers, our owned IFAs and also due to our unit linked business. The net investment result of the insurance portfolio for own risk slightly decreased to $4,600,000,000 mainly due to the slightly higher FX hedging costs and higher investment expenses. Net insurance benefits and claims increased to €17,800,000,000 due to Switzerland. This includes further reserve strengthening of around EUR 900,000,000 which leads, among other factors, to a lowering of the average technical interest rate.

Policyholder participation slightly decreased to €1,100,000,000 mainly due to a reduction in France that was partly offset by an increase in Germany. Operating expenses were up by 9% to $3,500,000,000 primarily due to higher commission expenses and expenses related to newly consolidated businesses. Profit from operations grew to €1,700,000,000 with a positive contribution from all profit sources. This includes the profit contribution from the exceptional premium increase in Switzerland. As mentioned on previous occasions, this contributed a very low double digit million amount.

Borrowing costs decreased to $123,000,000 This includes the effects of the refinancing in 2018 of a matured hybrid bond with a comparatively high coupon. Our income tax expense slightly increased to 3.20 $4,000,000 and includes a positive $49,000,000 one off. This is a non cash accounting effect in the context of the implementation of the Swiss tax reform in several cantons. Our effective tax rate was around 21%, including this one off item. We expect the tax rate in 2020 to be at the level of around 24%, essentially in line with prior years, depending on the geographic split of profit generation.

Finally, our net profit went up by 12% to 1,200,000,000 dollars including the transmission positive tax one off of $49,000,000 Slide 8 shows the adjustments to our profit from operations. On the left hand side, you can see last year's adjustments, including a €21,000,000 FX translation effect relating to the decrease of the euro by €0.04 in 20 19. On the right hand side, we adjusted 2019 profit from operations to reflect restructuring charges and the program costs related to a new accounting standard. The adjusted profit from operations increased by 10% to $1,690,000,000 Moving now to the segment results. I will start first with Switzerland on Slide 9.

Premiums increased substantially by 41% to $13,500,000,000 while the overall market increased by 1%. In Individual Life, premiums were up by 9%, while the market was up by 2%. Single premiums increased by 29%, primarily with modern and modern traditional products. Periodic premiums grew by 1%. Premiums in Group Life were up by 47%, while the market remained stable.

Periodic premiums grew by 11%. Single premiums increased by 76 percent. This exceptional increase was driven by additional demand as our largest competitor pulled out of the full insurance business. We maintained our strict underwriting discipline to support capital efficiency. Overall, premiums in group life, excluding this exceptional development, are above the prior year level.

In 2020, we expect a substantial decrease of single premiums. New business production with semi autonomous solutions was up by 39%. Assets under management in our investment foundation grew by 29% to $11,000,000,000 compared to $8,500,000,000 at year end 2018. Fee and commission income was up by 7% to $265,000,000 with an increased contribution from SwiftLight Select, our mortgage business and investment solutions for private clients. Operating expenses decreased by 1% to $419,000,000 due to our continued cost management.

Please note that starting half year twenty nineteen, we report operating expenses on all our business review slides on an unadjusted basis. The segment result improved by 3% to $892,000,000 due to higher cost, risk and fee results. The savings results decreased in line with the lower net investment income. The cost result increased due to higher cost premiums and the reduced STACK amortization since STACK amortization was exceptionally high in 2018. The fee result was up by 11% to $20,000,000 The drivers are the same as for the income development.

The risk result increased by 4% to $261,000,000 mainly driven by the growing Group Life business with full insurance and semi autonomous solutions. The value of new business increased by 90% to $308,000,000 mainly due to the Group Life business and also positive contributions at Individual Life unit linked and the assumed reinsurance businesses. The new business margin decreased from 2.8% to 1.6% due to the extraordinary high share of full insurance solutions and lower interest rates. Turning now to France. Please note that all things quoted are in euros for our segments France, Germany and International.

In France, premiums increased by 5% to 5,300,000,000 dollars Overall, the French market was up by 4%. In our Life business, premiums were up by 5%, while the market was up by 4%. The Unit Linked share in our Life premium was 49%, substantially above the market average of 27%. In Health and Protection, premiums increased by 4%, whereas the market increased by 5%. Premiums in our group business were up by 5%.

Premiums in our individual business increased by 3% with individual protection up by 8%. P and C premiums were up by 7% driven by motor products supported by new partnerships. The market was up by 4%. Fee and commission income increased by 9% to $293,000,000 Unit linked fees increased due to high unit linked reserves in line with positive inflows and positive capital market developments. This was partly offset by lower banking fees due to a low turnover of structured products.

Operating expenses increased by 4% to CHF 341,000,000 due to business growth and investments in growth projects such as Digital Client Solutions. Segment result rose by 3 percent to $247,000,000 with a positive contribution from the savings, fee and risk results. The savings result increased due to a high financial margin in the Life business and a high net investment income in the Non Life businesses. The cost results decreased in line with a strong new business production. In the context of Lubbockt, we successfully launched new individual pension products in October 2019.

Those will be complemented by group pension products in 2020. The fee result was up by 11% to €75,000,000 The higher unit linked fee result was partly offset by a lower result in the banking business. The risk result increased by 2% to €97,000,000 The positive contribution from the Life and P and C businesses was partly offset by a low risk result in Health and Protection due to higher clients. The value of new business increased by 1% to €131,000,000 High volumes in Life and Health and Protection were partly offset by the impact from a strong decrease in interest rates. The new business margin decreased to 2.4%.

Moving on to Germany on Slide 11. Premiums were up by 2% to CHF 1,200,000,000. We achieved higher periodic premiums with disability and modern traditional products, both in group and individual life. The overall market was up by 11%, driven by single premiums. Field commission income grew by 14% to €448,000,000 driven by a positive contribution from our owned IFAs due to an increased number of financial advisers and productivity gains.

The number of financial advisers amounted to almost 4,000 200, up 10% year on year. Operating expenses increased by 5% to 224,000,000 because of business growth as well as ongoing investments in growth initiatives such as the digital client portal for our owned IFAs and digital interfaces to intermediaries in the insurance business. The segment result was up by 35% to $167,000,000 primarily due to the positive development of savings and fee results with broadly stable cost and risk results. The savings result was unusually high. In the context of the ZZR financing, we had an extraordinarily high net investment result, including gains on interest rate derivatives.

We expect a lower savings result in 2020. The fee result was up by 11% to CAD 66,000,000 driven by a stronger contribution from owned IFAs. The risk result slightly increased to $33,000,000 due to a continued positive claims experience. The value of new business increased by 32% to $55,000,000 We achieved high volumes and a higher share of modern products driven by the launch of a new unit linked product. As a result, the overall guarantee level decreased significantly.

The new business margin remains strong at 3.3%. Turning now to the International segment. Premiums decreased by 3% to $2,100,000,000 due to lower premiums with private and corporate clients. In the Q4 of 2019, however, we achieved increasing premiums year on year. Assets under control for private clients increased by 12% to 19,500,000,000 dollars Fee and commission income was up by 25 percent to €282,000,000 All business lines contributed to this.

Main drivers were Fincentrum acquired in October 2018 and organic growth at Chase DeVille as well as with private insurance clients. Operating expenses increased by 13% to 100 $3,000,000 This is due to the mentioned acquisition, while operating expenses in other businesses were essentially stable. The segment result increased by 25 percent to CHF 73,000,000 due to the positive development of all profit sources. The fee result grew by 28% to CAD 53,000,000 primarily as a result of the positive organic contribution from existing businesses. The risk results slightly increased to $11,000,000 given a continued positive client experience.

The value of new business improved by 77% to $48,000,000 This was driven by high volumes at attractive margins in our risk business. The contribution from our business with pilot clients remains stable. The new business margin increased to 2.4%. Let's now move to our Asset Managers segment that reports in Swiss francs. Asset Managers figures include payoffs acquired in August 2018 and Leavitt Facility Management that is reported on a gross basis starting in 2019.

Asset managers' total income rose to €853,000,000 due to higher management fees on a growing asset base and higher transaction fees. This is an increase of 16% or excluding Lebit facility management of 11%. In our PAM business, total income increased by 17% to $377,000,000 or by 9% excluding Leavitt Facility Management as a result of a higher asset base, primarily due to lower interest rates and tighter credit spreads. Moreover, we also have higher real estate transactions and management fees. In our GPAM business, total income was up by 15% to 476,000,000 dollars or by 12% excluding Lebitt Facility Management.

This is due to higher recurring fees on growing assets under management and higher real estate transaction fees, while the increasing contribution from the acquisition of Bealls was partly offset by the lower other net income driven at a well flagged temporary reduction of project development contribution. The share of total nonrecurring income for TPAM, meaning transaction fees and other net income, was at 27% of total income compared to 33% in the prior year period. Operating expenses increased by 20% to $480,000,000 due to layoffs and Levitt Facility Management as well as further organic growth primarily in real estate. Excluding Livit Facility Management, operating expenses would have grown by 11%. The segment results increased by 14% to €309,000,000 TAM was up by 12% to $223,000,000 mainly as a result of the growing asset base and higher real estate fees.

CPAM increased its contribution by 17% to $86,000,000 This reflects operational progress that is partly offset by lower other net income. Other net income from real estate project development is expected to pick up again in 2020, as we have mentioned on previous occasions. Net new assets in our GPAM business amounted to €8,900,000,000 compared to €8,400,000,000 in 2018. We have broadened our client base again in 2019. Net new assets split by asset class were 33% real estate, 20% balance mandates, 16% bonds, 13% money market funds, twelve percent equities and 6% infrastructure.

Excluding money market funds, we generated net new assets of $7,800,000,000 dollars compared to $10,600,000,000 in 2018. Overall, assets under management in our TPAM business now amount to CHF 83,000,000,000 The split by asset class is 40% real estate, 20% balance mandate, 20% Bonds, 8% Equities, 7% Money Market Funds and 4% Infrastructure. Total assets under management were up by 9% to CHF254 1,000,000,000 mainly due to higher asset valuations in PAM and net inflows in TPAM. Let's move back to the group on Slide 14 and have a look at our operating expenses. The overall cost base increased by 9% to $3,500,000,000 mainly due to high commission expenses and expenses related to newly consolidated businesses.

Operating expenses adjusted for restructuring charges, program costs for a new accounting standard, scope changes and FX increased by 6% to 1,600,000,000 dollars In our insurance segments, adjusted operating expenses increased by 4% to 1,200,000,000 due to Germany and France. Turning now to the investment result on Slide 15. Our direct investment income was up by $29,000,000 to $4,400,000,000 Higher rental and dividend income was partly offset by lower coupons. Our direct investment yields decreased by 8 basis points to 2.8%, also due to the basis effect from higher asset valuations. The net investment result slightly decreased on a non FX adjusted basis to CHF 4,600,000,000 which led to a net investment yield of 2.9%.

This is about 13 basis points below the prior year level. Investment expenses increased due to growing assets under management, higher real estate transaction volumes and transfer taxes. Net capital gains increased slightly, primarily due to higher net realized gains on equities, bonds and real estate revaluations. This was partly offset by lower realized gains on alternative investments and loans as well as by higher FX hedging costs and related items. FX hedging costs increased by $57,000,000 to 774,000,000 dollars Our total investment result, including changes in unrealized gains and losses on investments, increased to 7%, mainly due to lower interest rates and tighter credit spreads.

Slide 16 shows the structure of our investment portfolio. The share of bonds slightly decreased to 57% as we shifted our portfolio further into real estate, mortgages and equities. The share of real estate was at 20.7%. We had further real estate revaluations of €700,000,000 and further net acquisitions of €2,900,000,000 The risk premium on real estate remains very attractive. Our gross equity quota increased to 8.8%.

Our net equity exposure was 4.1%. Our duration gap was at 1.1. Please note that our foreign currency exposure on the insurance portfolio remains hedged. As mentioned on previous occasions, we do not hedge the FX translation effects from our foreign operations and their profits. I will now move on to insurance reserves.

Our insurance reserves, excluding Polysolid participation liabilities, increased by 7% in local currency to €167,000,000,000 All units contributed to this. Turning now to shareholders' equity on Slide 18. Shareholders' equity increased by 10% to €15,900,000,000 The main drivers were in unrealized gains in bonds and equities and the net profit attributable to shareholders. This was partly offset by the dividend paid to shareholders and the share buyback completed in 2019. Slide 19 shows our capital structure.

Our total outstanding financing instruments amount to €4,400,000,000 This includes €600,000,000 of green bonds issued in November 2019. Our total hybrids, including hybrid equity, amounts to $3,300,000,000 The share of equity within our capital structure is 71%. It is calculated on shareholders' equity adjusted for unrealized gains and bonds and other financial assets, in line with our return on equity calculation. The capital structure and maturity profile remain well balanced with a diversified denomination of debt in Swiss francs and euros. That brings me to our Swiss Slide 2021 program.

On Slide 20, you can see our 2021 financial targets. I will provide more details on the 3rd Slide 2021 progress reporting on the following pages. Let me start with the development of our earnings quality on Slide 21. Our savings result increased to €912,000,000 The major drivers of this increase were Germany and France, more than offsetting the decline in Switzerland. As mentioned, the level of the savings result in Germany is not sustainable.

The risk result increased by 3% to $417,000,000 All insurance units contributed positively. The fee result increased by 15% to $553,000,000 with a positive contribution from all of our business segments. This includes the mentioned acquisition related increase from Beios acquired in August 2018 and from FinCentrum acquired in October 2018. The cost results improved mainly due to high cost premiums and lower DAC expenses in Switzerland, partly offset by increasing acquisition costs in France due to a strong new business production. The gross admin cost result increased by 10% to CHF 142,000,000 Our next three slides show that we continue to benefit from our disciplined asset liability management.

We are pleased with the resilience of our direct investment yield in this challenging environment with negative interest rates. This was supported by an increasing real estate portfolio and the reinvestment rate of around 2% in 2019. Moving on to the average technical interest rate on Slide 23. We further strengthened the technical reserve, which led to a 6 basis point decrease of the average technical interest rate. In addition, the shift to a more favorable business mix led to a further reduction of 4 basis points.

We also lowered the guaranteed rate in our non mandatory Swiss School Life business from 0.25% to 1.8%. This contributed another 2 basis points. Overall, our average technical interest rate decreased by 13 basis points to 1.12% as of January 1, 2020. We are very pleased that we were able to reduce the average technical interest rate in Switzerland to 79 basis points. With our disciplined ALM, we have again successfully protected our interest rate margin as shown on Slide 24.

Please note that the initially mentioned reserve strengthening of about €900,000,000 in 2019 will have a positive impact on our 2020 technical guarantees and is thus not yet reflected in the interest rate margin of 2019 shown on this slide. Let me now briefly comment on the development of the fee and commission income. Commission income at Swiss Life Asset Managers was up by 21% in local currency. This excludes, as usual, other net income from real estate project developments. Commission income from our owned IFAs increased by 19% with a positive contribution from Germany, international and Switzerland.

The business with our own and third party products and services increased by 9% in local currency with a positive contribution from all insurance segments. Overall, our field commission income increased by 16% in local currency to SEK 1,800,000,000 About half of that growth is organic, about 30% is due to the acquisitions of Beals and FinCentrum and the remainder is due to the full consolidation of Leivy Facility Management. Turning to the value of new business. The value of new business increased from 386,000,000 to €561,000,000 This is mainly due to the volume increases in all segments, primarily of new business production of full insurance solutions in Switzerland as well as our active new business steering and cost efficiency gains. The decline of the new business margin from 2.6% to 1.9% is primarily due to the high new business production of full insurance solutions and the unfavorable interest rate developments.

Nevertheless, our new business margin is above our ambition level of 1.5% in all of our segments. Let me now move on to operational efficiency. As already mentioned, operational efficiency continues to be an important thrust in our SYNTHLE 2020 1 program. We are addressing operational efficiency with 3 key performance indicators. In Life Insurance, the efficiency ratio improved by 1 basis point to 41 basis points, primarily driven by the increase in life insurance reserves.

At our owned IFA, the distribution operating expense ratio improved by 2 percentage points to 26% and higher commission income outweighed higher expenses. In our GPAM business, the costincome ratio decreased to 84% from 91%, in line with the growing net commission income and improved efficiency. Turning to capital, cash and payout on Slide 28. As of 1st January, 2020, our fixed policy test ratio is estimated to be slightly above 200%. As of today, the SSD ratio is somewhat lower given recent financial market developments.

We will communicate the results of the full calculation in our financial condition report by the end of April 2020. Our Solvency II ratio was above 200% based on a standard model excluding any transitional measures. Slide 29 shows our cash remittance and dividend. In 2019, we remitted SEK 752,000,000 of cash to the holding company. This is an increase of 8% year on year and corresponds to 70% of the 2018 net profit.

For the 2019 financial year, the Board of Directors will propose to the AGM an increase of the dividend to CHF 20, up from CHF 16.5 in the previous year. This corresponds to a payout ratio of 53%. Part of the total dividend payment, mainly CHF5 per share will be paid in cash as a par value reduction. The par value of the Swiss Life share will thus be reduced from CHF 5.1 to CHF 0.10 Coming to our newly announced share buyback program. On 5th December 2019, we have completed our EUR 1,000,000,000 share buyback program.

Today, we announced an additional share buyback program running from March 2020 to May 2021. We will repurchase shares for €400,000,000 As in the last share buyback, the program will be executed by a partner bank through a second trading line. The repurchase shares will be proposed for cancellation to the AGM. The share buyback will be financed with cash at the holding, including the annual cash build up. At year end 2019, we had slightly more than €900,000,000 of cash at the holding company and were just slightly above the middle of our comfort range.

Let me sum up. Today, we report a strong 2019 financial year. Our Swiss Life 2021 program is well underway. We are on track to strengthen our earnings quality, particularly by increasing our fee result. We are ahead with the value of new business, though this has become more challenging given the sharp decline in interest rates.

Moreover, we will maintain our cost discipline to improve operational efficiency. When it comes to capital, cash and payout, I can report a strong solvency and a growing cash remittance based on disciplined capital management. This led to an increase of the payout ratio. We successfully completed our EUR 1,000,000,000 share buyback program December 2019 and will buy back additional shares for EUR 400,000,000. Finally, our return on equity increased to 10.8%, which is above our target range.

Thank you for listening and back to you, Patrick.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Matthias. And now, dear analysts and investors, it's your turn who would like to ask the first question.

Speaker 1

We will now begin the question and answer session. The first question comes from the line of Peter Eliot, Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Thank you very much. I have three questions, please. The first one was on the sort of levels of cash that you need. Going to sound very greedy here because I was very pleased indeed with the announcements today. Thank you.

You mentioned, Matthias, that you were just above the €900,000,000 midpoint at the end of the year. My understanding is that you're now thinking that sort of €800,000,000 is okay rather than the €800,000,000 to €100,000,000 band. So I was just wondering if you could confirm that and give your thoughts around what drove that and maybe also sort of confirm your view on sort of

Speaker 2

other pockets of cash available, whether you'd still sort of rule out

Speaker 4

The second one was on the new French solvency rules. And I was wondering if you could just sort of talk about the implications of those for you and whether that has fed into the generous buyback, whether you see more sustainable cash remittance up from France in the future on that? And the third one on your investment portfolio, obviously, you've gone more into real estate again this year. I'm just wondering whether there's an upper limit to that or what do you see going forward? Yes, whether we should expect any slowdown in that growth in the real estate share of your investment portfolio?

Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

So thank you, Peter. I'll take the last questions and hand over the other 2 to Matt Joth. So first on Real Estate, no, I mean, there is no I mean, of course, at some point, there is an upper limit, but that's not, let's say, relevant for this year. So given the relative values of real estate versus long dated bonds, I still expect us to be very active in the market. And on the other 2, over to Mattson.

Speaker 3

Okay. Thank you, Peter. In terms of the level of cash, I think the guidance that we gave in the past still applies. So that means the €800,000,000 to €1,000,000 to €1,000,000,000 that's the comfort range and just kind of every level there within that range is equally comfortable. And so there's no change there.

And as you mentioned, we will finance the share buyback with what we have currently at the holding and the annual cash buildups that will come through. Now in terms of additional pockets, we had a discussion on a previous call in terms of free reserves in the AG, which we then said they are called free reserves, but they are not free because we do not want to run the OpCo with less statutory equity. So to cut that end to short, there are no additional pockets. Now moving to the French Solvency Rule. As a group, we are regulated by SSC, and the relevant criteria that we consider when thinking about capital management actions over and on top of the dividend or the group's SSD ratio and the cash available at the holding company.

So it is a positive for our French company there. The Solvency II ratio will increase due to that regulation, but from a group's perspective, this is not a game changer. Okay.

Speaker 4

Thank you very much.

Speaker 1

Next question comes from the line of Andrew Sinclair, Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Good morning and thanks everyone. 3 for me, if that's okay. So firstly, just on sales, January has passed and just wondering if you could give us any update on kind of what the sales volumes look like for Switzerland. Is there any further residual pickup from access departure? Or is it really just back to normalized levels after kind of the one off boost last year?

Secondly, it was just on debt levels. You're currently towards the upper end of your 25% to 30% range for debt and the capital structure. And that will probably exacerbate it a little bit by the buyback. I just wondered if there's any desire for deleveraging or just happy to grow into that over time. And thirdly, just having deployed cash for the buybacks, does that really preclude you from looking at any M and A over your current plan period?

Thanks.

Speaker 2

So on the insurance side, there's nothing special to say about any sales in Switzerland. So there's no further lap over from the whole competitor withdrawal from the BBGM market. I mean, that was quite some time ago. Then on the debt side, we just we confirm our reference levels there. So there is no deleveraging ambition here.

So we feel happy about where we are. And as you know, we're not on an M and A spree anyway. So any transactions we've done in the past were well below the amounts that would be possible to finance with the additional small debt capacity that we still have. So there's no change in policy here.

Speaker 6

Very good. Thanks.

Speaker 1

Next question comes from the line of Michael Huttner from Berenberg. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Thanks. Thank you so much.

Speaker 6

The results were so amazing. I mean, not that I'm covering you yet, but the real question is, given where you are today and where you were a year and a half ago when you set your new 3 year plan, which target in particular do you feel most comfortable about? I would identify, obviously, the fee result, but I just wondered if maybe in the cash flow or new business or something, there's something here for us to think about. The other is a standard question, can you talk about the coronavirus virus thing? Maybe give us a feel for how you see it?

And then the final thing, and here, I haven't looked at all numbers, so excuse me if I'm wrong. And well, I probably am wrong, but anyway. The one bit of your presentation, which struck me as not being quite confident, was the health in France. And I just wondered, given that's a business where I've always had high expectations and they haven't always I always feel well, it's not been quite so wonderful. Is that a business where you'd think, oh, well, strategically, it's not as core as we think?

Speaker 2

So on the French Health, I mean, we do think that it is core. As you know, there have been quite a lot of reforms on the French market around the Health business over the last couple of years, but we have a well established franchise, and we've managed that transition. So that stays core. Now on the corona side, I mean, 1st of all, we've issued similar travel restrictions or let's say, we and hygiene policies as many of our competitors. So I think that's important to mention first.

And on our business, we have not felt anything yet on our in our core markets here in Europe. Whether or not that will change, of course, will depend on how the coming weeks months will develop. Of course, the first area where you could hypothetically expect some impact is in our advisory business. We have 14,000 salespeople out there. Of course, if we now see a very dire development here, of course, we'd notice that in our IFA business, but we don't feel anything yet at all.

The main thing we feel is really on the financial markets. You know our SSD sensitivities. And here, of course, that's where we feel it most. On the liability side, we have a well balanced portfolio between mortality and longevity risk. And then the target question will be I'll hand over to Patjaaf.

Speaker 3

Now in terms of the program, I mean, we can clearly confirm the 3 Slide 2021 targets that we have laid out that you see on Page 31. Our current assessment is that we are really on track in terms of fee result and risk result. As mentioned, in terms of the new business with the closing of the year 2019, we see ourselves ahead. Having said that, rates have come down significantly since year end, and there we see some headwind. But as we close the year, value of new business, we really looked ahead of the goals.

Operational efficiency, I think there we are also comfortable in terms of SSD. We are ahead. This is also true if we talk about today's situation. And in terms of cash, you see we have also a good track record there as well as for the dividend. So I think we are really comfortable with the targets.

Even though there is hard work ahead of us.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Next question comes from the line of Kevin Ryan, Bloomberg Intelligence. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Thank you. I've just got 2 questions on a similar theme really. The first one is on the new Swiss Group Life business you've taken on last year. Have there been any surprises there with the portfolios that you have taken on? That's the first question.

And the second question is, this business is inherently lower margin than some of the other businesses you're in. And I'm just wondering how you're looking at rebalancing the portfolio going forward and what the outlook for more fee income is and how you see that balancing the Group Life business that you've taken on? Thank you.

Speaker 2

So we have several sources for our fee income and fee result. I mean, first, we have Asset Management, where we were on a strong growth track, supported by our real estate franchise, which is, of course, very well supported now by these low rates. So that should continue to do well. We also have a strongly growing IFA business, as Matthias just pointed out, where we can also expect further growth, further demand by clients. And then we also have the unit linked business, which is also important mainly from France and from international.

And here, of course, with these with the market environment, we see, we might see it depending how financial markets continue. We might see some slow sounds from the strong 4th quarter development. But overall, we confirm our very ambitious targets. I mean, look where we came from, from the fee results. Just 5 years ago, we were at EUR 260,000,000.

Today, we're at EUR 5 50,000,000 and we confirm the EUR 600,000,000 to EUR 650,000,000. And now to the BVG, yes, you're right. It is indeed a lower margin business than the rest of our business. We've always said that and confirmed that. But with the business we've taken on from OXA, we've actually improved the quality of our business.

So for example, the average age in our portfolio and other the mix between mandatory and non mandatory business and so on. So if surprised, then it was on the positive side. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Next question comes from the line of Jonny Urwin, UBS. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hello, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. 2 for me, please. Firstly, on the buyback, I'm just kind of trying to understand the rationale behind this the amounts and the timing a bit more. I mean, I guess, one of the things that you guys as a management team has become very well known for is kind of consistent, reliable, conservative execution.

And it just feels to me that this buyback, having committed to do 2 years forward of cash returning cash remittances to Shell, is a bit of a stretch and it does tie your hands a little bit on the cash flow front and at quite an uncertain time for market. So I was just wondering basically why you've done it and what are you trying to signal here? So that's the first

Speaker 2

Okay. So first on the share buyback. As we've always said, it depends on 2 conditions. If 2 conditions are fulfilled, then we assess the situation. So the first condition is that we're above the €190,000,000 in SST, and this we've been for quite some time now.

The second condition is that we have cash available with the ambition levels that we mentioned. And of course, there is no automatic share buyback if these conditions are fulfilled. We assess the situation. And given the outlook of the cash generation, given the outlook we have with the strong organic growth that is coming through. We felt comfortable with this share buyback and the timing.

And you're right, we have 2 annual net cash generations within the program. That's exactly the reason why we've gone for 15 months. And the reason is we just don't want to sit on more cash than we need to. Then the vacancy rate here, that's also going well. In the Swiss market, we've seen a lower vacancy rate.

As far as I remember, it's around 3.7 percent, and it's really across the board. We see lower vacancy rates in apartments. We saw lower vacancy rates in offices. The lowest vacancy rate, by the way, we have is in the retail space, which is always, I guess, a huge surprise for anybody in the U. K.

And so it's really going well, and it's the lowest vacancy rate we've had for as much as I can remember. Of course, we also have a lot of central locations. The office market is strong. The only bit difficult market is actually Geneva, which is, let's say, much more difficult than Zurich or Basel or the rest of Arclimannik. But also in France, we've hit new lows in the vacancy rates.

The same is true for Germany. So we really see a very good pickup here.

Speaker 8

Thanks very much.

Speaker 1

Next question comes from the line of Fuling Liang, Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hello. Thank you. This is Fuling. I've got two questions. So first of all is on your do you mind that is there any estimate of your mark to market solvency to sorry, SST ratio given the recent like market movements?

That's the first one. And then secondly is that the I just want to make sure, so have you ever considered because as you previously mentioned, so this buyback program is based on kind of assumption of future cash, excess cash generation. So I just wonder that given the recent market movements, do you think there is kind

Speaker 3

of or have you ever

Speaker 9

thought about under kind of what kind of stress scenario that this buyback could be actually canceled? That's the second one. And the last one is kind of slightly irrelevant. Do you know the average just wondering what's the average guarantee rate of your annuitized book? And how does that move?

Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

Okay. So no, we have not talked about canceling the share buyback that we've just announced. Again, we expect a cash generation or cash to holding from our OpCos more or less in line with the profit development. Confirmed that last year again. And on the annuitization number, we're trying to figure that out.

So myself, do we have something on that? Not yet, apparently.

Speaker 3

Maybe I have not fully understood a breakdown of the reserves. So essentially, in the Group Life business, a bit more than the book is non amortized. And there, we have on average roughly 60 basis points worth of technical interest rate. Now we have given you for the entire Swiss market the 80 basis points average technical rate. This includes also the individual life, but this may be a guidance of for you to derive what is in the amortization phase.

So the 79 basis points I quoted includes the entire Swiss book.

Speaker 9

And what is the mark to market? Have you ever kind of had a mark to market?

Speaker 2

Again, I mean, the SST is mark to market per se, I guess. So what you're trying to get to is to give an update on where we stand now after the strong market movement. Yes. Of course, we're now somewhat lower than where we were at the beginning of the year. But remind you, at the beginning of the year, we were slightly above $200,000,000 including the complete share buyback that we've just announced.

And given the market movements we see now, we're somewhat lower now.

Speaker 1

The next question comes from the line of Thomas Fossard, HSBC. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Yes, good morning. I've got three questions. The first one would be related to the cash remittance ratio, 69% in 'eight, 70% achieved in 2019. So just wanted to make sure that or if you could remind us if you provided any guidance or target in the past and if there is any leeway for you to increase a bit the remittance ratio? The second question will be related to Germany and to the savings margin.

I think that several times in your presentation, you referred to the higher savings margin due to the ZEDAR funding. Could you provide us with any outlook or what you potentially need to you would have to further increase by how much you would have to increase the EBITDA again in 2020, bearing in mind the evolution of interest rates and as a result, how it should play positively or negatively on your savings margin in Germany this year? And the last question would be related to your duration gap. So looking at Slide 51, you had a stable duration gap to 1.1. Just wanted to understand if what was your current thinking about running this kind of duration mismatch in the current low interest rate environment and if you had any actions to change that during the year?

Thank you.

Speaker 2

So on the duration gap, the rationale we've mentioned now for many, many years of having this duration gap is that we do not include a duration component for our real estate portfolio. And the real estate portfolio we have, which is heavily geared towards Switzerland, has a rate sensitivity, especially in Switzerland. Look at the typical flight to quality moves we saw in 2,008. We even had a slight appreciation of the real estate prices in 2,008 in Switzerland. And as we don't attribute any rate sensitivity to the real estate portfolio at all when we calculate the duration gap, I think we are on the side of caution that we have a open duration gap here exactly to take that interest rate sensitivity of our 20% real estate portfolio into account.

And again, we've been saying that for several years. The other thing we've been saying for quite some time is the guidance or, let's say, indication on the cash generation. We've been slightly below 70% for several years now. It's usually been between 65% 70%. And so the 70% of cash remittance sorry, I said cash generation is cash remittance, that is really on, let's say, a bit on the high side.

But we do confirm that going forward, we expect cash remittance to grow more or less in line with our earnings. And on the question in term, I hand over to Matthias Eric.

Speaker 3

So on the SFR, we had this year quite an amount to finance, SEK 185,000,000 additional buildup of the ZZR, which meant some gains realization to finance that, including also gains on the interest rate derivatives. And this actually was the reason why we said the savings result was unusually high. We do not expect that to occur to the same extent in 2020. Now rates have come down, but we cannot predict the rates. And the additional debt that they're build up in Germany depends on where the rates are at the end of each quarter.

So we just say that we expect a lower savings result, but I think the number would be speculation as we do not know whether rates will stay at the quarter ends.

Speaker 1

Next question comes from the line of Rene Laucher, MainFirst. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Yes. Good morning all. So I am on Slide 39. That's a detail of the net investment income. And perhaps you can comment, firstly, on the revaluation gains on real estate.

So now year by year, you're above the guidance of 1% to 2%. I would say it's more or less in line with what we hear from listed Swiss real estate companies. But nevertheless, perhaps you can give a little bit of an outlook here. And then as a follow-up question, I'm also struggling now for many years. You have increased reserves by €900,000,000 and the net capital gains are $659,000,000 And as I understood, it's normally you take the realized capital gains and they remain on the balance sheet to beef up.

So I will decide of the balance sheet, perhaps you can always explain again. The next question is on Circle. Let me just understand the revaluation or expected revaluation gains on the CERC project, how are these booked? And then on Slide 41, on Switzerland, the saving result is slightly down from 6.28 to 5.86. And then, Matthias, if I'm right, now with the reserve strengthening, is it fair to expect a slightly higher saving result in 2020.

And I understood in Germany, so the 73 are not sustainable. Looking at France, France is up from 1.79 to 2.10. And I was wondering if the strong saving result in France is sustainable? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Okay. So first, on the savings result, we've never given any guidance on the savings results. As you know, we give guidance and targets on the risk and the fee results. Then the strengthening of the reserves, well, you're right. I mean, these have historically been close to each other, but they've never been exactly the same.

I think Matthias can explain that in more detail right after me. And you mentioned that we've increased reserves by around $600,000,000 No, we strengthened reserves by $600,000,000 So of course, the increase in reserves has been much more. Then the real estate gains, they've only been up by $16,000,000 year on year. But of course, they've been stronger than what we've guided for, let's say, several years ago when we said it should usually be around 1% 2%. But please keep in mind that also interest rates have not exactly gone where we expected them.

And because of the rate sensitivity that I just mentioned before, that's, in my view, the main reason why we've just seen much stronger revaluation reserve gains than we had alluded to several years ago. So they were now at around 3% and not at the 1% to 2% that I mentioned before. And then on Circle, as you've probably seen, the take up here is also going strong now. We're at around almost 75% by now. And as we hold a minority share in the project of 49%, I believe that will be at cost.

But it's too early to say if there will be any gains or not coming from the project. But it's going well, and I'm very happy with the development. But now I hand over to Mattias for the reserve strengthening questions and details.

Speaker 3

As you said, we have similar figures as in 2018, so roughly EUR 600,000,000 worth of realized gain, so EUR 660,000,000 concretely in 2019 and also around EUR 900,000,000 of reserve strengthening. So the policy approach we take is as in the past. The reason for that is essentially the actuarial guidance that we have to follow and that we follow, which means that once you realize gains, that means it is essentially bringing forward some income and that then necessitates a strengthening of the reserve and that's the pattern that we have been seeing for quite some years. So there's no change to that.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thanks.

Speaker 1

That was the last question.

Speaker 2

So that brings us to the end of our conference. Once again, thank you for calling in today, and I wish you a good day. Goodbye, everyone.

Speaker 1

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now over. Thank you for choosing Chorus Call and thank you for participating in the conference. You may now disconnect your lines. Goodbye.

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