Earnings Call: Q3 2020

Aug 25, 2020

Good morning, and welcome to Scotiabank's 2023rd Quarter Results Presentation. My name is Philip Smith, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Presenting to you this morning is Brian Porter, Scotiabank's President and Chief Executive Officer Raj Viswanathan, our Chief Financial Officer and Daniel Moore, our Chief Risk Officer. Following our comments, we will be glad to take your questions. Also present to take questions are the following Scotiabank executives: Dan Reeves from Canadian Banking Nacho Deschamps from International Banking Jake Lawrence and James Neate from Global Banking and Markets and Glenn Cowan from Global Wealth Management. Before we start and on behalf of those speaking today, I will refer you to Slide 2 of our presentation, which contains Scotiabank's caution regarding forward looking statements. With that, I will now turn the call over to Raj Viswanathan. Thank you, Phil, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin by discussing our financial performance, starting on Slide 4. I'll then pass the call over to Daniel to discuss risks and Brian will conclude our presentation with some observations and comments. The bank's results in Q3 were negatively impacted by a full quarter of COVID-nineteen, which resulted in higher loan loss provisions and lower customer activity. Retail Banking in Canada and across the international footprint saw lower revenue and higher loan loss provisions. At the same time, we had record results in Global Banking and Markets and solid growth in Wealth Management, both of which benefited from strong customer activity. Adjusted net income was $1,300,000,000 and diluted EPS was $1.04 for the quarter, which is in line with the last quarter. On an adjusted basis, total PCLs of $2,180,000,000 increased $335,000,000 quarter over quarter as we continue to add to allowances to capture the impact of COVID-nineteen and its future credit migration impacts. The PCL ratio increased 17 basis points quarter over quarter and 88 basis points year over year. With this, our allowances have increased to $7,400,000,000 or approximately $2,300,000,000 in the last two quarters. Pretax pre provision profit declined to move modest 3% on an adjusted basis. Adjusted revenue declined 3% from last year or in line excluding the impact of divestitures. Net interest income excluding divestitures was flat as higher contributions from asset liability management activities and loan growth was offset by the negative impact of foreign currency translation. Non interest income, excluding divestitures, was higher from strong trading and underwriting revenues that were partly offset by lower banking, insurance and commission revenue. The core banking margin of 2.1% was down 35 basis points from last year. This was largely driven by higher balance sheet liquidity invested in lower yielding assets, which contributed to 13 basis points of this decline. Margin compression was primarily driven by corporate and commercial loan growth outpacing retail loan growth this quarter that reduced margin by approximately 22 basis points. Adjusted expenses were down 4% year over year or 1.5% excluding the impact of divestitures. Lower performance and share based compensation, advertising and business development expenses and the positive impact of foreign currency translation also contributed to lower expenses. The adjusted productivity ratio of 51.4% improved 30 basis points year over year and 2 60 basis points quarter over quarter. Year to date, adjusted operating leverage, excluding the impact of divestitures, was positive 1.1%. Turning to Slide 5, we provide an evolution of our common equity Tier 1 ratio over the quarter. The bank's common equity Tier 1 capital ratio improved to 11 point 3%, an increase of approximately 40 basis points from the prior quarter, due primarily to lower risk weighted assets and internal capital generation, partly offset by the impact of evaluation of the pension liability. Risk weighted assets declined $15,600,000,000 or $11,000,000,000 net of foreign currency translation. The reduction was primarily due to lower organic growth. Business Banking risk weighted asset reduced by $10,000,000,000 largely due to corporate repayments, while counterparty credit risk and CVA risk weighted assets reduced by $4,000,000,000 from the prior quarter. Credit migration increased risk weighted assets by about $1,000,000,000 Business Banking's unfavorable migration of $4,000,000,000 was offset by favorable retail migration of approximately $3,000,000,000 Retail risk weighted assets benefited from lower overall delinquency rates in each of the bank's portfolios. Lower delinquency resulted from the impact of the government stimulus and the bank payment deferral programs, while lower consumer spending also contributed to the lower revolving credit utilization rates. The common equity Tier 1 ratio also benefited by approximately 17 basis points from Aussie's transitional adjustment for the partial inclusion of increases in Stage 1 and Stage 2 expected credit losses relative to the pre crisis baseline levels as of January 31, 2020. Turning now to the business line results beginning on Slide 6. Canadian Banking reported adjusted net income of $433,000,000 down 53% year over year and 10% quarter over quarter. Higher provisions for credit losses and the full quarter impact of the pandemic on revenue impacted earnings. The higher performing loan PCLs quarter over quarter was due to the impact of estimated future credit migration. The PCL ratio of 85 basis points increased by 57 basis points year over year and 8 basis points quarter over quarter. On an impaired basis, the PCL ratio of 36 basis points was flat quarter over quarter, but up 6 basis points compared to the prior year. Total revenues were down 6% year over year as net interest income declined 4%, due primarily to margin compression. Total loans grew 5% with mortgages up 6% and commercial lending up 10%, while credit card balances declined 13%. Sequentially, mortgages grew 1% and deposits grew a strong 10%. The net interest margin was down 18 basis points year over year and 7 basis points quarter over quarter, driven by the full quarter impact of rate cuts and changes in business mix. Non interest income was also down 13%, primarily due to lower insurance, banking and credit card fees. Expenses declined 2% year over year and 4% quarter over quarter, mainly driven by lower advertising and business travel costs and the impact of other cost control initiatives. Turning to the next slide on International Banking. My comments that follow are based on results on an adjusted and constant dollar basis. Earnings of $53,000,000 were down significantly due primarily to higher provisions for credit losses on performing loans and the impact of previously announced divestitures. Similar to Canadian Banking, International Banking revenues were also negatively impacted by a full quarter of the pandemic. Excluding the impact of divestitures, pre tax pre provision profit was down a more modest 10% year over year. On an impaired basis, the PCL ratio was relatively stable, up 4 basis points quarter over quarter and 12 basis points versus a year ago. Total PCLs increased by $835,000,000 from a year ago, primarily related to performing loans due to the pandemic and its impact on future credit migration. The PCL ratio increased by 208 basis points to 333 basis points. Revenue declined 16% year over year. Excluding the impact of divestitures, revenue declined 8% due to lower retail fees, given the slowdown in consumer activity and lower trading revenues and investment gains. On a quarter over quarter basis, revenue decreased 4%, due mainly to lower retail fees given the slowdown in consumer activity. Net interest margin of 3.99% declined year over year due to excess liquidity and commercial loan growth outpacing retail loan growth, as well as the impact of interest rate reductions across the footprint. Sequentially, commercial loans grew 8%, while retail loan growth was flat. Expenses declined significantly, down 11% year over year or 6% excluding the impact of divestitures, driven by acquisition synergies and cost saving initiatives. Quarter over quarter, expense were down 4%. Moving to Slide 8, Global Banking and Markets. Record net income this quarter of $600,000,000 was up $226,000,000 or a strong 60% year over year. Quarter over quarter earnings were up 15%. Higher income was driven primarily by strong fixed income trading and higher underwriting and advisory fees. Corporate loans grew a strong 18% year over year, reflecting continued support to our customers as well as growth in repos and derivative related assets and the impact of foreign currency translation. Strong income growth coupled with prudent expense management resulted in a positive year to date operating leverage of 26% in this segment. Turning now to our Global Wealth Management segment on Slide 9. Earnings of 332,000,000 dollars were up 6% year over year, driven by stronger sales, higher trading volumes and market appreciation. This quarter, we will rank number 1 in Canadian mutual fund net sales. Excluding the impact of divestitures, assets under management increased 4% year over year and assets under administration increased 6%, largely reflecting higher net sales and market appreciation. Asset growth was robust across 1832 Asset Management, Jaroslavsky Fraser and MD Financial Management. Adjusted expenses were down 3% year over year due to the impact of divested operations. The productivity ratio improved by 160 basis points quarter over quarter and a strong 190 basis points year over year to 60.3%. Adjusted year to date operating leverage was 240 basis points excluding divestitures, which makes this the 3rd consecutive quarter with positive operating leverage. Wealth Management results remain supported by strong investment fund performance. 80% of funds were in the top two quartiles for 3 year and 5 year returns. I will now turn to the other segment on Slide 10, which incorporates the results of group treasury, and from asset liability management activities that improved net interest income. Adjusted net income declined $33,000,000 due to lower investment gains and higher operating costs related to COVID-nineteen. I will now pass the call over to Daniel Moore to review risk. Thank you, Raj, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin my remarks on Slide 12. The bank reported total allowances for credit loss $7,400,000,000 That's up from $5,100,000,000 2 quarters ago, an increase of 45%. Over the same period, performing ACLs increased 56%. To put this in context, total allowances provide robust coverage for our current estimates of future net write offs through to the latter half of twenty twenty one. Turning to slide 13. The bank reported provisions for credit losses of $2,180,000,000 in Q3, reflecting an increase of $335,000,000 from the prior quarter. The PCL ratio increased 17 basis points from last quarter and 88 basis points from the prior year to 136 basis points. Over 80% of this increase was related to performing loans, mainly in international retail and related to the macroeconomic outlook, estimated impact on future credit migration. The impaired PCL ratio at 58 basis points was stable. It was up only 2 basis points quarter over quarter and up just 6 basis points year over year. Moving to Slide 14. Last quarter, we stated that the COVID-nineteen pandemic and higher provisioning was likely not a 1 quarter event given its continued spread, its impact on the global economy and of course the resulting structural damage. With that in mind, I think it's important to understand what drove the quarter over quarter increase in total PCLs and the changes to our assumptions since the last quarter. First, our Q3 estimates reflect the increased economic impact from the later spread of the virus to Latin America and the Caribbean. And second, many countries around the world, including Latin America, had expected to reopen their economies, but were subsequently delayed. This also impacted our macroeconomic outlook. In addition to these developments, we have also exercised significant expert credit judgment to overlay model generated numbers in order to capture the impact of future credit migration. Performing loan provisions increased $277,000,000 quarter over quarter. Approximately 80% of this increase is related to international retail and this reflects the items that we talked about earlier. More specifically, the increase in international retail provisions were related to unsecured lending exposures in Peru and in Colombia as shown on the next slide. And these have been appropriately provided for based on our current estimates. I will now discuss the status of our customer assistance programs on Slide 16 and how they've been incorporated into our outlook. Our customer assistance programs are working effectively. We can see this as our balances are declining daily and payment activity is high for customers exiting the programs. Approximately 90% of the remaining customer assistance balances are expected to exit the programs through Q4. It's also important to note that participation in customer assistance programs is highly skewed to secured lending such as mortgages. Unsecured lending such as credit cards represents only 6% of customer assistance balances, and these have been well provisioned. In Canada, approximately $42,000,000,000 or 13% of our retail portfolio was enrolled in our customer assistance programs in Q3, and this was mostly related to mortgages. In fact, only $200,000,000 of the exposure is in our credit card book. Furthermore, 96% of customers who exited the program are current. Their delinquency rates are well below pre COVID levels. Turning to International Banking. Approximately $18,000,000,000 or 25% of our international retail portfolio remain in customer assistance programs in Q3. The higher rates of participation in international are mostly explained by the directives from local regulators, while lockdowns continued. More than half of our international customer systems balances are mortgages, which carry low LTVs of 48% on average. Our remaining exposure is split between personal loans and credit cards, the performance of which is in line with our expectations. We've also doubled our collections capabilities to further mitigate any potential impact. Approximately 90% of customers in international banking will exit customer assistance programs are current on their payments. We have incorporated the customer assistance program participation rates and their estimated impact on our portfolio into the current outlook, which I'll review in a moment. But firstly, let's look at the credit quality of the portfolio on Slide 17. Our GIL ratio of 81 basis points improved by 5 basis points year over year. The improvement was driven by International Banking. And our net formation ratio also improved sequentially and was stable year over year. These metrics demonstrate the strong credit quality of our portfolio. Additionally, on Slide 18, you can see our net write off ratio has improved all bank and is at the lowest level relative to recent quarters. This positive performance has been driven by Canadian Banking and International Banking, which have been favorably impacted by the customer assistance programs. Net write offs are a key factor in our ACL calculations. Hence, we've assumed elevated net write off ratios through 2021 and these expectations have been incorporated into our $7,400,000,000 ACL balance. Looking ahead, we expect Q4 PCLs to decline below the levels reported in Q2 for the All Bank. As I mentioned earlier, our allowances factor in both the current experience of customer assistance programs that have ended and the estimated delinquency of when the programs end. And we have good data underpinning our extra credit judgment given over half of our unsecured exposures have already exited customer systems programs. In addition, we have incorporated the current macroeconomic outlook and its potential structural impact to our portfolios that are not part of customer assistance programs. By the end of fiscal 2020, almost all of our customer assistance programs will have expired and then we expect to see higher Stage 3 provisions offset by lower performing loan provisions. Overall, we view this quarter's total provision for credit loss as the peak and we expect provisions to decline substantially. We are well provisioned on the balance sheet to cover our current estimate of future net write offs. I'll now turn the call back over to Brian. Thank you, Daniel, and good morning, everyone. To begin my remarks on Slide 19, I would like to again thank our customers for their loyalty and understanding and our employees for their continued hard work and dedication. I would also like to thank our shareholders for their support as we navigate this environment. It has been a trying time for all that we are beginning to see some positive signs which provide cause for optimism as we look ahead. I would like to frame my comments on our results today by looking back to our Q2 earnings call in late May and focusing on what has changed. At that time, the outlook was highly uncertain. Lockdowns were strict, governments were introducing new policy actions almost daily, retail customer assistance programs were highly active and corporate customers had been actively drawing down on their loan facilities which increased risk weighted assets. In this uncertain environment, the bank was well prepared. We were operationally ready and transitioned quickly to remote work environments while keeping 90% of our branch network open. In addition, we had completed all divestitures which were part of our strategic repositioning. We were also well prepared for the sudden increase in market volatility by being prudent in the amount of market risk we were taking before the pandemic struck. Today, business conditions have begun to slowly improve across our footprint, although many challenges remain due to the timing and uneven impact of the recovery. That said, our outlook today is more positive and has improved. In Canada, progress in containing the virus has been steady with all provinces entering stage 3 of the reopening. A significant amount of COVID-nineteen related losses in economic output have already been reversed. Household spending has returned to more normal levels. The housing market has experienced strong year over year increases in both sales and average sale price. And Canadian auto sales posted a 3rd straight month of recovery in July. In fact, just under half of the reduction in GDP due to the virus has been reversed. We are seeing that improvement reflected in our day to day banking with solid 6% growth in mortgages and 10% growth in our commercial banking business. From a credit risk perspective, we are well positioned with our unsecured lending exposure being among the lowest of our peers. Our current outlook is for the rebound in economic activity to continue for the balance of this year and for GDP growth to average 5.4% in 2021. In the Pacific Alliance, the delayed spread of the virus means a rebound in economic activity is more nascent at this stage despite substantial policy actions by governments and central banks. Chile has managed to flatten the COVID curve and the trend in Peru and Mexico is down. While much has been written about the spread of the virus in Latin America, particularly in Brazil, the per capita rates of confirmed cases in the Pacific Alliance are comparable or in some cases less than developed nations including the United States. This is illustrated on Slide 20. As we look ahead, the substantial stimulus provided by policy actions and the steady reopening of economies combined with a strong rebound in prices for important commodities such as oil, copper and gold are all positive for the outlook in the Pacific Alliance. Slide 21 summarizes policy actions and our economic outlook for the Pacific Alliance. Our current outlook, which was updated after Q3 is for a return to positive GDP growth in 2021 with growth rates averaging 5.3%. This represents an improvement from our previous forecast of 3.7%. We are confident that the Pacific Alliance countries will prove to be as resilient today as they have been in the past. Turning now to slide 22. Across our business, we are seeing positive trends in both retail and wholesale customer activity. For example, we have seen debit and credit card transaction volumes return to more normal levels in several of our core markets. As Daniel highlighted, we are experiencing a steady decline in customer assistance balances along with positive trends in payment activity. We are also provision conservatively to deal with potential delinquencies when customer assistance programs come to an end. Utilization of corporate loan facilities has largely returned to pre COVID levels as the bond market has normalized. We have assisted many corporate customers in taking advantage of record low rates to pay down corporate loan facilities and increase their available liquidity for future growth. The net result is a return to normal lending volumes and improved new issuance. I would now like to close my remarks by focusing on a few key areas from today's presentation, which highlight the strength of the bank. The first area is credit risk. I would strongly encourage everybody reviewing our results to focus on the balance sheet, where we are very well provisioned. As Daniel outlined, our allowances for credit losses now stand at 7,400,000,000 dollars an increase of $2,300,000,000 over the last two quarters and now represent 2.5 years of loan loss coverage. Roughly 90% of the increase in allowances is related to performing loans. Our forward looking indicators are weighed towards pessimistic scenarios and our assumptions are very conservative. And we have factored in possible delinquencies associated with customers exiting assistance programs and government support programs moderating. In summary, we believe Q3 was the peak for the bank's loan loss provisioning. The second area is capital. As Raj mentioned, the bank's common equity Tier 1 ratio improved in Q3 from 10.9% to 11.3%, demonstrating the resiliency of our capital in a stressed operating environment and our prudent approach. It is now 230 basis points above the regulatory minimum. The 3rd area is expense management. In a challenging revenue environment featuring record low interest rates, strong expense management is critical. As Raj highlighted, expenses declined across the bank quarter over quarter and year over year. Our productivity ratio of 51.4% is the lowest in 10 quarters. This reflects our commitment to expense management, our positioning in digital and our substantial investments in technology. In a very challenging environment, the bank has supported our customers, provision conservatively, demonstrated strong expense management and increased its capital and liquidity ratios. As a result, we are very well positioned for the economic recovery. With that, I will turn it back to Phil for the Q and A. Thank you, Brian. We will now be pleased to take your questions. Please limit yourself to one question and then rejoin the queue to allow everyone the opportunity to participate in the call. Operator, can we have the first question on the phone, please? Thank you. And the first question is from Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America Securities. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Thanks, Eoin. Good morning. I guess my question both for Brian and Dan is just around, one, thanks for the stay on the Pacific Alliance Countries, but talk to us in terms of which country are you most cautious around when you think about credit? You flagged the unsecured portfolio this quarter. Just tell us where you we should expect or where you think the risk of being blindsided or highest level of risk on credit is within the 4 countries? And if Dan, you could just add some color to your guidance for lower PCLs, if there's some cadence in terms of what we should expect impaired versus performing and the magnitude of decline we should anticipate? Thank you. Hi, Ebrahim. Thank you for the question. I'm going to ask Nacho to start off and then Daniel or I might jump in after. Thank you, Ireki. Look, let me give you my perspective of where are we in the Latin American countries. As Brian mentioned, COVID started later than Canada. So there is a lag effect. But we are already seeing signs that the Pacific Alliance countries are in a recovering path and following the positive trend we're seeing in North America. Let me give you some examples. In general, commodity prices are important for the region. And in Chile, for example, mining production is above last year and copper prices are above pre COVID levels. So exports of mining in Chile are 13% year over year, which is very positive. In Peru and Colombia, a good way to see the recovery recovery is the electricity consumption due to the lockdowns, the electricity consumption went down significantly around 30% in both countries or more and they are reaching pre COVID levels. So this shows that the economy is coming back. And in the case of Mexico, Mexico is the 9th manufacturing exporter in the world. So manufacturing is a very important industry and is really positive to see that half of the impact of sorry of COVID has been recovered as the U. S. Economy has reopened and reactivation value chains have reactivated. So I would like to highlight that this is due to the strong fundamentals. These countries are managing comprehensive stimulus programs. They have the ability, the fiscal muscle to do it due to the low levels of GDP. And they have had a very active monetary policy to support the recovery. Other measures are also important to highlight. In Peru and Chile, for example, governments have allowed workers to disperse up to 25% of their pension in Peru and 10% in Chile. This is a very material support of $20,000,000,000 in Chile and $10,000,000,000 in Peru that is helping formal workers. So overall, there is a lag effect, but we are going to see an improvement in the economy. Maybe, Daniel, you would like to answer also from a trade perspective. Ebrahim, you asked about outlook where we go from here. I'd say in summary that we are at the high watermark and we're seeing the tide go out from here. In fact, we're going to see our total PCL decline significantly going forward. As I mentioned in my remarks, we see the total PCLs going below the number that we report in the Q2 results. And that's we're confident in that because over the last couple of quarters, we've increased our performing reserves by 56%. We've gone at that number by looking both at our net write offs, sort of bottom up data led analysis as well as our top down macroeconomic forecast, which as we indicated remains skewed toward the pessimistic. We're getting that data from the expiry of our customers and the residual portfolio of our book being highly secured, essentially a mortgage book, gives us great confidence in that future outlook, notwithstanding the positive macroeconomic indicators that Matt outlined. So overall, I'd say we know that structural damage has been done to the economy. It's going to require a lot of quarters to clean up from here. But we do view this quarter's PCL as our high watermark. We see it declining substantially from here and we're well provisioned on the balance sheet to cover current estimates of future net write offs. Thank you. The next question is from Gabriel Dechaine with National Bank Financial. Please go ahead. Good morning. I want to thank you first of all for Slide 16. There's some good data in there. Couple of questions about it though. First, the percent of people coming off of the deferrals that are current, 96% Canada, 89% international. Do you think that trend or that number is representative of what we should expect as there is more expiries over the next few months? And then second, in international, we see the percentage of deferral exposure that expired. It was 27% in international. I thought that would have been higher because a lot of the deferrals there were for 4 month periods, which probably would have got us into Q3. Wondering if there were any extensions that you granted there or plan to in August? Okay. Gabriel, let me take that question and start and I'll hand this over to Nacho for 1st and more detail on IB. First of all, if you look at where we stand on the outlook on the deferral customer assistance programs from here in Canada, I think the important thing to call out here is that the residual book that we have is 94% mortgages. These are high quality mortgages with an average loan to value of 45%. High FICO scores is effectively a super prime book of business. So really we're not very worried about that. The residual portion of that portfolio is effectively a small piece of cards. You mentioned that that was 200,000,000 dollars And then it's prime auto. And again, we've got a very positive outlook on how that's going to perform from here. So we're actually we're relatively well positioned and optimistic on the Canada portfolio. Your question on business mix driving different deferral expiries in International Banking. Here I think it's important to note that the deferrals were offered later in many of the geographies in international. And even within international, there was a bifurcation between some of the countries and how they operate the programs. So if you look at Peru, for instance, we've had a material decline in our balances of 40% versus some of the other countries, which such as Mexico, which went entered later. I'll let Nafka give some additional color there. Well, just Sorry, the Internet if you can comment as well on the August experience because more than half of those are expiring in August and we're through most of the month. Just if you see what tell me what's going on now? Sure. Let me tell you that I'm quite encouraged with these payment levels close to 90 percent of the $6,500,000,000 that have exited from the customer assistant programs because as Daniel mentioned, large portion of that is Peru, which is mostly an unsecured portfolio. So it's showing quite resilience. And also I would like to highlight that those that are not in deferral are paying at similar levels to pre COVID. So we expect as you can see in this slide in the schedule, we're going to have in August September the bulk of the deferrals program exiting. As you also highlighted, regulators have extended the option for customers to participate in the customer assistance programs as lockdowns also extended in the region. I'll probably have to follow-up offline here. Thanks. Thank you. The next question is from John Aiken with Barclays. Please go ahead. Good morning. Daniel, when I look at the macroeconomic scenarios on Slide 25, obviously, we're seeing some improvements across the board in in terms of the forecast for Canada and the U. S. In terms of the outlook. But can you give us some sense in terms of what changed on the international side between the two quarters? Obviously, part of that is what drove the increase in performing loans, but also commentary around how much that actually did drive the increase in the allowances in the quarter, please? Yes. So as I referenced, in Canada, of course, and in the U. S, we follow those very closely. We've seen macroeconomic data that's better on a Q over Q basis. And you'll see that reflected somewhat in our forecast. Although I will note again here that we have over weighted our pessimist scenarios versus our base case. We continue to do that. We continue to have a negative perspective so that we have conservative provisioning here. If you look at international, the change in the macroeconomic forecast there has been driven by the longer and extended impact of the lockdown measures that we had in those countries. Those countries are now coming out of those lockdown measures. We're seeing the positive return. Our fast moving macroeconomic indicators are improving and we're substantially back or improving path to much more international footprint. But we were conservative on our provisioning and in our most affected countries took a negative outlook on the 4 GDP projections. Daniel, just so that I'm clear, there was a move in the quarter again towards the pessimistic scenario? We have maintained our overweight pessimistic scenario outlook. That is correct. Understood. Thank you very much. Thank you. The next question is from Steve Carew with 8 Capital. Please go ahead. Thanks. Thanks again for the disclosure on the customer assistance programs. I thought maybe I'd ask a question on international and cards in particular, Daniel. I've had lots of questions around the risk of PCL remaining elevated for a protracted period of time. And I'm not a bad guess if that were to come to pass. This is a decent area of focus. So 2 thirds of the book, is that right? 2 thirds of the book that's under deferral and there's $3,500,000,000 of exposure. I guess maybe if you could give us a sense of how prudent you're being there in terms of outlook. It looks like if the percent current following deferral expiry is around 87%, does that imply 13% delinquencies or loss rate? And just thinking that 90% of that is scheduled to be coming off by the end of the quarter, like how meaningful could that be in terms of impaired or stage 3 PCL? How should we think about, I guess, the how conservative are you being? How should we think about that? And how concerned should we be about that international credit card book going forward? Sure. So the unsecured portfolio as we highlighted is primarily in Peru and Colombia. Those are the 2 geographies in international where our forward GDP and macroeconomic forecast have sequentially gotten worse. And that reflects our mechanistic perspective. And again, we've got some data that indicates and not just outlined an improving situation in some of the footprint, but we've intentionally taken a worse GDP forecast there. So from a top down perspective, macro perspective, we've been conservative here. As I said, that's been driven by the longer lockdown. I'd say, as a general matter, we're pretty broadly satisfied with the credit quality of our book. We had 27% of the portfolio is in deferral or still in deferral process. It's performing in line with our expectations. 90% of the expired book as we said has returned to current status. The residual portfolio is 55% mortgages. That's got high loan to values of 48%. Many of the customers, particularly in cards, are still making payments to us even though they're in those deferral periods. And we'll have 90% of those programs off the books by the end of October 31, we estimate. So as we've taken a look at this, we've benchmarked ourselves carefully to our peers. And if we look at the PCL increase on a year over year basis, what we've done versus local and international banks who operate in the same footprint, We've taken a PCL increase that's in line with the peer group. And that's all beside the fact that we have a business here that's more indexed to commercial and corporate business, which as you know has a better experience and a lower default rate in these situations. So we think we're very well provided for as we look across the book. Maybe a different way to look at it and sort of in fact the envelope math for you. You look at our total cards portfolio that's in deferral across the Allbank level today and you look at the allowances for credit loss that we have on that, we're 50% covered. And that doesn't include factoring the percentage of people that are currently paying into that will be expected to exit. So that's a very good coverage ratio. Steve, it's Brian. Just to give you a context is that not all markets are created equally. And if you look at Chile and Mexico for instance, the composition of our portfolio would look more like Canada in terms of big mortgage book, auto lending and less unsecured lending. Just in terms of the economic development and the progression of economic development in Peru and Colombia are different. You don't have the big mortgage market. The mortgage market improves in its nascent stage. And so people rely on personal loans, which we adjudicate appropriately and the fees and the loss rates, the return on that business is a very good return. But it's you're going to have some collateral damage in a pandemic like this. But my point is that people need that liquidity for their day to day life. This is 40% of the economy in Peru is informal. So people in a time of crisis tend to sock away cash. It's been our experience put it under the mattress and it comes out and we're seeing that in our repayments here as people come out of deferral. So we're very encouraged about consumer behavior in our international book and we expect that to continue. Thanks for the color. Thank you both. Thank you. The next question is from Scott Chan with Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead. Good morning. I think 2 part question for Nacho on international. I guess you called out consumer loan growth was flat quarter over quarter, but commercial was strong sequentially again. Maybe just why commercial was strong and maybe the outlook on both those segments? And how much of the commercial, I guess, the lower margin commercial versus retail impact of the NIM in the quarter versus liquidity? Thank you. Sorry. Thank you. Look, let me give you my perspective on the performance of the quarter in general. As we have said, our earnings were low mainly in fact the diabetic elevated PCLs and we have talked about that. But in terms of the top line, our revenues decreased 4% Q over Q, reflecting a full quarter of COVID. Most of the impact really if you see is driven by retail transaction and credit card fees that we expect will gradually increase. And we also experienced some margin compression, but I would like to highlight that this is mainly driven by $6,000,000,000 of excess liquidity due to government funding of the COVID assistance programs. And also due to the business mix as you say commercial growing much faster than retail. Asset and deposit growth were strong Q over Q. Our loans increased 4% driven by 8% growth in commercial and were flat in retail and deposit growth was 4% strong in all business lines. So this is a positive trend that will reflect in future earning growth. I would also would like to highlight that our expenses also reduced 4% in line with our revenue reduction. And in fact, in the past 2 quarters, we have reduced $100,000,000 in expenses and we continue to see many opportunities to improve our efficiency. If you put all together, including this low quarter, year to date, our pre tax pre provision is just 2% down and operating leverage is flat. And I would like to leave you with 3 messages. First, we have reshaped our footprint in our business. We feel we're in the right markets and we are committed to our international banking strategy. 2nd, we expect this to be the quarter with the highest PCL in international banking. And third, you will see our earnings improving in Q4 and beyond. Let me just make a comment on NIM since you asked about it. Overall, I'd say international NIM forecasting and trying to break down this business is complicated. It's a number of diverse economies, we have inflation driven pricing and so on. So a number of factors move to NIM even in normal times. Also since it's about 20% of the All Bank assets, it actually doesn't move the All Bank NIM as much. For example, it's 11 basis points impact this quarter and 7 basis points when you look at it quarter over quarter. But having said that, International Banking NIM compression is completely driven by liquidity when I look at it quarter over quarter. Of the 28 basis points compression that we had, 20 basis points relates to the liquidity or the excess liquidity we've had to carry to support our customers. And the rest, like you pointed out, is due to higher commercial and more secured retail growth compared to the previous quarter. And even looking forward, we expect to see some level of margin compression in International Banking in Q4 as well, certainly not as much as you've seen this quarter. And then we expect that to improve as the mix starts shifting back to what we would call normal levels where our retail growth will come back once customer activities comes back across the international banking footprint. Very helpful. Thanks very much. Thank you. The next question is from Paul Holden with CIBC. Please go ahead. Thank you. Good morning. So I want to ask, I recognize your CET1 capital ratio looks quite strong now. Wondering if you've done some additional work on the impact of credit migration over the coming 12, 18 months on the ratio of any guidance or you wanted to quantify sort of the impact for us that would be helpful? Sure, Paul. It's Raj. So I'll see if I can help you with that question. As you pointed out, the CET1 ratio was up 40 basis points quarter over quarter at 11.3%. Couple of factors, good internal capital generation, although we had high loan loss provisioning and lower risk weighted assets as we got pay downs from particularly our corporate draws, which used up about 47 basis points of capital just last quarter. So we've seen some good come back about 20 basis points this quarter through the reduction in RWA and our business banking book. And counterparty credit was also reduced because of we had extreme levels of my credit spreads that moved in Q2. Those have come back as well. That gave us about 12 basis points back. So part of that is certainly as you look forward, in this quarter we absorbed migration of about $4,000,000,000 relating to our business banking book and we actually saw some positive or favorable credit migration when you look at the retail book. And there are a few factors that are influencing that Lower delinquency rates in each of the bank's portfolios, whether you look at mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, the entire gamut, but also within the credit card portfolios because you have credit scoring that comes into our models and so on simply because of the government stimulus, the deferral programs that have been in place, particularly in Canada, as well as lower consumer lending sorry, consumer spending, I should say. It also contributed to lower revolving credit utilization rates. So really the PDs on our retail book dropped if you look quarter over quarter in our ARB book, it dropped from 91 basis points to 78 basis points in 1 quarter. So that's the reason you see favorable migration. To answer your question on stress testing, like we talked about last quarter, we do multiple stress tests, particularly in environments like this. You can call it a U shaped, V shaped recovery, L shaped recovery and so on. But the most likely scenario we see, excluding this quarter's migration, which has already gone through on Business Banking, we think it will be around the 40 basis points range. If you look at our capital ratio of 11.3% and it will continue to grow because most of the write offs are really going to come in Q1, Q2, particularly in the retail book. We think it will be completely absorbed by the internal capital generation that we expect to see since volume growth is going to be slightly lower compared to our normal growth rates and that should help us and keep this capital ratio definitely above 11.3%, we think as we look forward in Q4. And as we talk to you in Q4, we'll give a better understanding of how this might play out through Q1, Q2 and the rest of next year. That's very helpful. Thank you. Thank you. The next question is from Doug Yan with Desjardins Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Hi, good morning. Just wanted to go back to the performing loan build this quarter and it seems like most of the build was related to migration. It doesn't seem like they changed your scenarios or your FLI. And so I just want to understand better how you went about looking at this migration? Is this mostly a management overlay? Is this something where you went out over the next year or so and looked at as these deferrals come off what delinquencies would be and then kind of bring it back to today to what the ACL would be? Yes. Thanks, Doug. So you're absolutely right. The credit quality has driven a swing in PCLs on a quarter over quarter basis of about $350,000,000 whereas in fact on a quarter to quarter basis the macroeconomic or FLI was in fact down about 50,000,000 dollars So this quarter has really been all about seeing the impact the structural impact of this portfolio this impact on our retail portfolio and our corporate and commercial banking business where frankly it's a good news story there. And being able to incorporate that data on customer exits as well as the remaining portfolio that we have in and the quality of that into our estimates going forward. And you're right, in order to make that assessment, we've had to execute significant extra credit judgment in order to make that happen, because the macroeconomic factors, we haven't we don't have employment driving income levels anymore. We have government assistance programs in many cases driving income levels. So we've used that as an overlay in terms of thinking about how we look at net write offs going forward. But from an overall perspective, we have assumed a significant increase in net write off levels versus pre COVID levels. And we've looked out 5 quarters ahead making that assessment and taking that into allowances for credit loss. And we've done that both by incorporating that top down data that bottom up real experience from our customers as well as particularly now would be looking at the outside in perspective from our peer group. Is there any way to quantify that? I mean, when we look at what you've said in terms of your experience for stuff coming off deferral rate now, I think it was the 89% or 90% is staying current after they come up in international and it was higher up in 90% s in Canada. Is that what you're expecting? Or are you expecting it to actually get worse from here as you build out these performing loan allowances? So two things. First of all, I'd expect that to be at least as good going forward. But secondly, and I think more importantly, let's look at the credit quality of the remaining book of business because those expiries have related largely to the unsecured book of business, which has shorter deferral periods. So we've had about 60%, about 2 thirds of our expiries in Canada relate to the unsecured book of business. Now in cards, we're down to $200,000,000 So you look at the impact of the PCLs, which is really what we're all after here, we have I'd say cautiously optimistic perspective on that experience going forward given the remaining quality of the book. As I said, it's effectively a super prime remaining book of business in Canada that's got very low LTVs. So while we've taken appropriately pessimistic perspective on the overall provision, we have high confidence in the high watermark statement we made before. And then just lastly, the credit card book, dollars 3,500,000,000 dollars in international that's on deferral. You said that, yes, there's a good chunk that's still current and making payments. Can you quantify like how much of that is how much of those clients are still making payments? Yes. So in international, the current payment rate is remains significant and we're tracking that very, very closely. But you haven't quantified that. Sorry. One thing about customers in deferral is your question. Yes, we've seen around 1 third of our customers that remain continue to pay even when they are in deferral. Okay, great. Thank you. Thank you. The next question is from Dacho Mililich with RBC Capital Markets. I'm going to stick with Dan and just follow-up here on your answer just now to at least as good, which is a little surprising to me. And your slide 16 is very useful. Thank you again for this slide. And it will help me frame my question. So if I look at Canada for example and I look at the last call in there, the current fall in deferral expiry. If I think about mortgages, somebody who's off expiry has come off early, so they probably didn't need the deferral anyway. When I think about credit cards and personal loans and you've got a high current following deferral, but those are smaller payments and many of the people are probably getting served payments. So the issue, Dan, is really as we look forward, the biggest payment that people have in their lives is typically the mortgage. So what I'm interested in understanding is sort of how you see this playing out in October or Q4. When they come off deferral, if they've got a mortgage and they're still unemployed and CERV is being wound down, can you provide some insight as to how many people in that mortgage book are unemployed, have served and potentially other loan balances where they would have difficulty making those payments once that big deferral of the mortgage comes due? And maybe perhaps provide some data on those credit cards, say they're current, but how many are actually making full payment versus minimum payments? Thank you. Yes. So on the card, we on the card portfolio at the end of your question there, we still have about 70% of our portfolio maintaining current position on the card balances in Canada. And that's consistent with our experience through this since the start of this. So the quality of that remaining card portfolio, although as I said, we're down to 200,000,000 dollars has remained consistent from a payment perspective. Your question is really revolves to our program, what happens on transition, Some of these government assistance programs roll off in what is now October given the additional extension that we've had in Canada and transition into the revised DI assistance programs that we have in Canada now that were recently announced. I'm not interested significant $37,000,000,000 of assistance in Canada. And here significantly, that has been extended not only to those that need sick leave, for instance, but also to those that only have 120 hours of deployment in the last year, that's a material piece of assistance that we have in Canada. So we think that addresses many of the questions we had prior about some of the challenges about transition off those CERPA payments going forward. You're right that the bigger portion of the payment amount is in the mortgage portfolio. But here again, I'm going to come back to I think what we're all focused on today is the provisions for credit loss outlook. And when we're dealing with a mortgage portfolio that's super prime effectively and of the 45% LTV, we don't see a significant impact. And Daniel, maybe I'll just follow Darko, it's Dan Reese from Canadian Banking here. Clearly at 99.4% current following deferral expiries is a tremendous result so far. For those still in deferral, the FICO score is close to those that are not in deferral. So in general, our mortgage book sits around $800,000,000 and those in deferral are about $750,000,000 or higher. We have identified in June based on seeing SERP data and EI data, the customers we would qualify or characterize as vulnerable. Through the course of July and into August, we will have contacted all of those mortgage customers 2 months ahead of their scheduled repayment and are working with them on a case by case basis and we're encouraged by what we saw through the month of August. And what would the proportion be of those that are vulnerable, Dan? And do you have a similar specific for the international? I would say the proportion would be less than 10% of those that are still in deferral that we would consider to be vulnerable. The size of their payment while significant is not in comparison with the rest of their credit capability. So when we look at that tail if you like, we get comfort, especially to Daniel's point around LTV, should the consumer decide that they are not capable of continuing, the mortgage will move and we will exercise our right. That is a possibility. On the mortgage side in international, Nacho? Well, what I would say in international, it's that customers are also similar. This is an option, it's encouraged for regulators broadly. And I would like to highlight that this is in the memory of our customers. Major events in our region like earthquakes in Chile, Mexico, hurricanes in the Caribbean have allowed us to provide massive support similar to what we are seeing. So what I can tell you is that this level of payments that we are seeing on the exited portfolios from the assistance programs are on target. And these are quite encouraging and we hope we have now an important exit in the 4th quarter that they continue at the same pace. We have increased our allowance for performing loans $1,000,000,000 in 2 quarters in International Banking. And our ACL today is more than 2 times our net write off of last year. So we feel we're well provisioned with the information we have today. Darko, it's Brian. Just one thing that Nacho in answering another question from somebody else earlier and it doesn't get a lot of color here, but the relief that the Chilean government and Peruvian government have given for people to take money out of their pension plans, We can argue whether that's good policy or bad policy. But that's a close into the government of Canada saying you can take $100,000 tax rate out of your RSP to get on with your life. These are big, big programs for these countries and will bode well for consumers in terms of how they handle it. I think I so, I just wanted to emphasize that. Yes. They represent 2 to 3 times the monthly income of our average worker in this country. So it's quite material. Okay. Thank you. Thank you. The next question is from Mike Visvanovich with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Hi, good morning. Hi, good morning. Probably a question for Nacho. Just wanted to go back a couple of quarters on the guidance that was provided. The earnings powered international business post dispositions, I think the number was $525,000,000 And obviously, it's a much different environment now. But is that something that you could potentially get back to maybe by the end of fiscal 2021 or is that more of a fiscal 2022 story when we think about that segment's earnings power without the noise from elevated PCLs? Look, thank you for your question. I'm quite confident that post COVID these countries will show another cycle of very high growth. And this is because of the structural characteristics of the countries, a 250,000,000 population, low levels of banking penetration, fundamentals matter and they have managed and whether well COVID. So for sure 2021 is going to be a transition year, but I have no doubt that the banking industry will resume double digit growth post COVID. And I'm quite confident of these targets for international banking as a medium term target, of course, highlighting that we are still going through difficult months and we still have to see, let's say, a consistent recovery and growth. Okay. Thanks for that color. I had a really quick numbers question as a follow-up on the customer assistance program slide. So in the footnote, it says the Canadian payments percentage includes accounts that have not yet completed 1st billing cycle since expiring. So what I'm wondering is that 96.3% in the right column that's quoted, how would that be how much lower would that potentially be if you excluded or if you only included the accounts that have come off deferral that have actually gone through a first billing cycle since the deferral expiry? Hi, it's Ian Reese here from Canadian Bank. I don't have that number at hand, but it's not a significant difference. We're simply sharing that footnote for being to reflect the point that when the loan expires, it takes a full 30 days for the payment to become due in most circumstances. That's all. I wouldn't read much into that. Okay. Thanks very much. Appreciate it. Thank you. The next question is from Mario Mendonca with TD Securities. Please go ahead. Good morning. Dan, if we could go back to the comments you made around credit, you said that the estimated future credit migration, you built in estimated future credit migration out to the latter half of twenty twenty one. I would have expected that that kind of credit migration contemplated that it would have had a similar effect on book quality. Specifically, what I'm getting at is, I would have expected the probability of default to have moved materially higher across your loan book, including consumer. But there does appear to be a disconnect then between what you're building in from a credit perspective and what we've seen so far in terms of book quality. I guess my question is, is that still to come, like updates to your probability of defaults across all your loan books, corporate, commercial and consumer. Are those still to come in subsequent quarters or are you done? Mario, it's Raj. I think you're referring to book quality which put out as part of our regulatory sub pack, correct? Yes. Okay. Yes. So yes, the capital will lag like I mentioned earlier because of these different programs. It started as far as business lending goes. Like I mentioned, we took $4,000,000,000 of risk weighted assets. So that will be kind of in sync with what you see for loan loss provisioning. But certainly, the loan loss provisioning on the retail book is coming in much earlier because of IFRS 9 performing loans requirements and the capital impact of it will be delayed as write offs start coming in Q1, Q2 and these portfolios actually migrate to a higher or a lower PD, I should say, or a higher PD and a lower quality as well as if they've entered the impact and that will reflect in the capital, which is why I said about 40 basis points could be the impact of migration to an earlier question, but that will come through, I would say, early part of 2021 as these programs play itself out. But you're right, it's a lag effect. So would I be correct in saying that the probability of default, those numbers have been updated for corporate and commercial and retail is just as you suggested will come through later. Is that correct? Completely correct, Mario. That's why I referred to the retail PDs if you look at ARB portfolio and the regs are back has dropped from 91 basis points to 78 basis points and that will come back to 91 being more normal and perhaps might go higher too depending on how these portfolios migrate in future quarters. Sorry, go ahead. Mario, we've got Daniel here. We've gone through and we've taken a full bottom up position on the whole corporate commercial portfolio and rerated everything that's in there as necessary. We found frankly only 4% of our portfolio needed rerating and of that 80% was only 1 credit notch. So that shows the resiliency of our portfolio, which is 85 percent investment grade. So that performed very well. We're very pleased with that. And then your comments there specifically related to corporate and commercial? Yes. Thank you. Thank you. The last question will be from Sohrab Movahedi with BMO Capital Markets. Just wanted to go back to Nacho, get a sense Nacho as to what if any changes have been made to risk appetite towards the business in the region where the growth is likely to come and whether or not there has been a shift? And does Dan's forward looking kind of expert judgment assume a skew towards more of a secured book? Or is it more of the same? And whether or not from a business perspective, the trends in expense management that you have kind of highlighted can persist or are there limits as to how much lower expenses can go from here in the international segment in particular? Thank you. Thank you. Thank you very much, Shoaib for your question. Well, it's already happening and I expect that in the first in the next few months, we will have more opportunities to grow in commercial and the retail the retail secured business. They are more resilient to the recession until the economies are back to a growth path. But eventually, as we have mentioned before, eventually we expect that both segments will start to grow in a much more balanced way. And our risk appetite has been adjusted accordingly, taking some lessons from this event. But we remain highly confident on our strategy and the risk capital will gradually adapt also to the conditions of the markets. I would like to say that there is a significant digital acceleration. We have been able to help our customers experiencing a very difficult circumstances accessing their bank, their accounts remotely. And therefore, this is helping us invest and shift a lot of engagement in digital channels. And therefore, we continue to see as we have seen significant opportunities to improve our efficiency and continue this trend and the track record we have in solid expense management, Saurabh. And so just on your question on factoring in the changes of strategy that Natura is looking at the margins going forward. We've not factored any of that into our extra credit judgment. We've run it off the current portfolio as it is. So, it's Daniel. To be crystal clear on that, at least for the foreseeable future, growth in commercial and better, call it, secured stuff would be an improvement, so to speak, relative to where your book quality estimates are? Yes, we are improving versus base case estimates today. That is correct. Okay. Thank you. Okay. Thank you everyone for participating in our call today. On behalf of the entire management team, we want to thank our investors and analysts for participating in our call. I also want to thank all of our employees for their continued focus and hard work to deliver to all our stakeholders and our customers and shareholders for their loyalty and support. We look forward to speaking with you again at our Q4 2020 call on December 1, 2020. Have a great day.