Welcome to EQB's earnings call for the third quarter of 2022 on Wednesday, November 9th, 2022. At this time, all lines are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question- and- answer session for analysts. Instructions will be provided at that time. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Mr. Richard Gill, Vice President of Corporate Development and Investor Relations at EQB. Please go ahead.
Thanks, ma'am. Your hosts today are Andrew Moor, President and Chief Executive Officer, Chadwick Westlake, Chief Financial Officer, and Ron Tratch, Chief Risk Officer. For those on the phone lines only, we encourage you to log on to our webcast as well to see a brief new EQ Bank Make Bank campaign video embedded at the end of our accompanying quarterly investor presentation that we're very excited about. The quarterly presentation also includes on slide two, EQB's caution regarding forward-looking statements, and slide three includes statements concerning non-IFRS measures. All figures today are adjusted where applicable or otherwise noted. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Andrew.
Thanks, Richard, and good morning, everyone. Since the cycle of monetary policy tightening began this spring, our team has done some really great work to serve our customers while doing the things that are important to shareholders. Delivering ROE aligned with our core value creation approach, protecting the bank from heightened market risk with no discernible change in our industry-leading credit metrics, growing net interest margins in a challenging market of quickly moving interest rates, a reflection of our rigorous margin management process, consistently raising our dividend, and doing all that while completing the acquisition of Concentra Bank on November 1st, on schedule, and with the support of all stakeholders.
The reliability of our value creation strategy is evidenced by strong Q3 earnings built on a high-quality, broad-based conventional loan growth of 29% year over year and a 13-basis-point expansion in NIM from Q2, resulting in record net interest income and an adjusted ROE of 15.6%. Many factors contribute to these results. I'm particularly encouraged by growth in our securitization business and its impact on our total record revenue this quarter. To reiterate, we have seen no erosion in our credit position, either in arrears or delinquencies. Our MD&A expands on these positives, so I will turn immediately to our outlook inclusive of Concentra. This is our first call since closing the acquisition on November 1st, and I want to welcome our talented new colleagues, customers, and valued partners in Canada's credit union system.
A top priority is offering differentiating value to credit unions and the more than 5 million members they serve while integrating Concentra to achieve all of the scale and synergy benefits communicated last February. Concentra joined us as anticipated with about CAD 13.6 billion in assets under management, plus close to CAD 40 billion in assets under administration. Entirely new source of business for EQB and all the funding and revenue diversification expected. By the numbers, EQB is Canada's seventh-largest independent bank with about CAD 100 billion in combined assets under management and administration. We certainly feel this combination is a 2 + 2 = 5 situation. We're beginning the journey with a well-considered plan of integration that began last week. We are ready to deliver.
Turning to 2023 guidance inclusive of Concentra, I will say right off the top that we aim for another year of superior performance. Using our consistent value creation method and the expected realization of year-one Concentra synergies, we're guiding to an ROE of 15%+, pre-provision, pre-tax earnings growth of 25%-35%, an annual value to EPS growth of 10%-15%, including the impact of the additional nearly 3.3 million common shares added when the acquisition closed. All this is subject to refinement as we gain traction in integration efforts and prove out our synergy assumptions. Combined, this should translate to an expected 12%-15% expansion in book value per share in 2023. Part of our hypothesis is we'll grow our conventional lending book by around 9%.
We expect the first half of 2023 will feature low single-digit growth in the personal bank, higher in the commercial bank. We expect a stronger second half. Although I freely acknowledge the obvious, there's been a downshift in housing activity that is likely to continue in the first half of 2023 before stabilizing. I'm confident of EQB's ability to grow. Diversification, a strong franchise, and more talent on the bench than ever give us many levers to pull. As we just increased assets by about 30% with Concentra, some of our growth ranges are a little lighter for 2023, returning to a more normalized pace in 2024.
Our focus is on making growth pay, which means focusing on properly priced conventional lending, ensuring NIM continues to be managed well, maintaining our highest standards for credit, and continue to build our capital-light securitization fee income. The action we took last spring to ratchet back on LTVs in certain areas of the country gives us great comfort in the strength of our credit book. Even with recent house price declines, the average LTV on our uninsured single-family portfolio of 63% provides a very comfortable cushion. As a reminder, the key driver of default is unemployment. Tilting the economy into a recession could change the picture, but with a million jobs going unfilled, increasing immigration targets from the federal government and our emphasis on urban centers where employment source is diverse gives a strong downside protection.
Although Bank of Canada's policy has affected every corner of Canada, there is no such thing as a national housing market. We're seeing that now with better activity in Western Canada and Quebec. Our wealth accumulation portfolio should continue their strong trajectory. The fact that our 2023 guidance shows 60%-80% expansion in the reverse mortgage portfolio simply underscores the tremendous growth potential of this franchise. For commercial loans, we are calling for growth across all portfolios, with guidance ranges similar to those in 2022 for the largest segments, generally around 10%-15% across business lines. A contributing factor to 2023 guidance is growing and adding value to the digital services offered in our award-winning EQ Bank platform.
A top priority is to introduce the EQ Bank payments card, thereby solidifying our position as a digital bank Canadians can rely on exclusively in everyday life. I'm delighted to say this will be done in waves beginning next month and completed in January, a staged rollout orchestrated to ensure that we have the customer service capacity to address any and all first usage questions. Our cards include industry-first features such as fee-free cash withdrawals at any ATM nationally, and the ability to load the card to pay for in-store and online e-commerce purchases with 50 basis points of cash back. When used for purchases internationally, there are no foreign exchange markups. If you don't have an EQ Bank account yet, you're certainly missing something. Get on it. We'll make sure everyone knows about our great digital offerings through our new Make Bank ad campaign.
After question period, I encourage you to stay tuned as we play a clip from that campaign. EQ Bank's most popular services are also on launch for Quebec this year. At initial launch, Quebecers will have access to EQ Bank's enriching value proposition across the all-digital savings plus GIC, TFSA, and joint accounts. We will time our Quebec entrée to ensure it gets maximum consumer attention. Watch for launch in the next month. By this time next year, we think, Quebec customers could represent 5% or more of EQ Bank deposits. Healthy ambitions for a great new platform. We express our confidence with 2023 guidance for EQ Bank deposit growth of 20%-30%.
We can clearly achieve that growth, but the actual result will be driven by some tricky trade-offs of rate and spend on customer acquisition to achieve good outcomes for both our customers and our owners. Before I conclude, I'd like to welcome Carolyn Schuetz, Marcos Lopez, and Michael Hanley to the bank's board of directors. These three accomplished business leaders bring outstanding new perspectives to our deliberations across subject matters that are important to us, including entrepreneurship, fintech, business integrations, risk management, and environmental stewardship. Their appointments also prepare us for future director retirements. It's a positive development all around and one that was very carefully orchestrated in keeping with your focus on excellence in governance. For my part, I will summarize by saying we'll accomplish a great deal next year.
With the scale of a larger bank, new partners across the credit union system, consistent proven value creation method guiding our every move, an increasingly strong franchise built on our position as Canada's challenger bank, and strength in our team, we approach 2023 with great confidence. Now over to Chadwick.
Thanks, Andrew. EQB hit, and in some cases, exceeded guidance in Q3, which demonstrates how proven and resilient our business model is across market cycles. Since you have access to the MD&A and our quarterly investor presentation, I'll zero in on five themes this quarter, four of which have particular relevance for the 2023 guidance that Andrew profiled. Plus, I'll hit some context for our Q4 outlook. Theme number one is margin expansion. We spoke on many occasions, including our June Investor Day this year, about the expertise that goes into our ROE calculator for pricing, plus our strategy for funding diversification. In Q3, we executed once again. For total funding, we have a lower deposit beta, meaning our funding costs move at a lower overall velocity than Bank of Canada increases.
This especially holds true because of our great everyday savings rate in EQ Bank, with no gimmicks like some competitors, plus our growing European covered bond program. With six Bank of Canada overnight increases now in 2022 adding 350 basis points, we've increased our EQ Bank everyday rate to 2.5%. This is a win for customers and a win for investors, with margin expansion giving corresponding moves and asset yields. It's also very clear to Canadians that EQ Bank is about much more than rate. As our new Make Bank marketing campaign made clear when it launched on October 4th across Canada, customers benefit from not being charged for everyday services and enjoy a growing suite of world-class differentiated products.
This is why more Canadians are calling EQ Bank their primary bank by the day, and all this contributes to us being able to manage a lower deposit beta. For good reason, we've also profiled our European covered bond program each quarter. Now a little over a year past our first issuance in the fall of 2021. In this time, we've successfully completed three issuances totaling EUR 900 million at a combined average of around 50 basis points better than GIC pricing. Our last issuance in September attracted many new investors. In meeting with investors in France, Germany, and Austria this fall, I saw firsthand that there's great opportunity for us to continue to increase the program as a stable and low-cost source of wholesale funding. Plus, we have over 500,000,000 in additional program capacity with the addition of Concentra.
The benefits of this latest issuance will start to translate in Q4 results. Margin management will remain a top priority in Q4 and into 2023, when we expect stability and potentially further expansion. With year-to-date NIM for the first three quarters combined at 1.87% and 1.94% specifically in Q3, we are performing well ahead of our 2022 guidance of flat- to- moderate expansion from the 1.81% at Q4 2021. My second theme for context on Q3 is non-interest revenue. As expected, we saw a turnaround from Q2 due to core revenue from higher gains on sale, which increased about fivefold from below normal levels in Q2. There are a few reasons for this increase, including improved management and execution of hedging, an increase in 10- and five-year origination volumes, and loan size and origination diversification.
This illustrates the benefit of the aggregator program we launched in Equitable Trust and the exceptional talent of our EQB Capital Markets team. Fee-based revenue is part of this core non-interest revenue. It's declined a little compared to Q2 due to changes in services and products, but we expect material expansion going forward, particularly with the addition of Concentra. Fee-based includes several categories and will also benefit from the launch of our BIN sponsorship offering earlier this fall. As the holiday season approaches, you can now go into many retailers and buy a prepaid card on EQ Bank rails. Core revenue strength was partly offset by additional strategic investment losses in Q3. Although the valuation changes depend on the extent of ongoing debt and equity market volatility, which remained high in Q3 as we all experienced, the losses were something we expected and called out last quarter.
For Q4 and into next year, gains on sale from securitization activities will regularly fluctuate based on volumes derecognized, which in turn are driven by consumer preferences. For forward guidance, we expect continued positive contribution to earnings here in Q4 and 2023. Third theme I want to cover is expense management. Our guidance was that expense growth should moderate in Q3 from the first half of 2022. That's exactly what occurred. With an efficiency ratio back at 40.1% and a lower rate of relative employee growth, the story is very positive on operating leverage improvement sequentially. Q4 will start to look different given all the moving parts from closing Concentra one month into the quarter. With the assumption of the day one Concentra cost base, the picture will temporarily, until we fully apply our operating disciplines and realize expected benefits, look a little different.
For EQB in 2023, we're not providing efficiency guidance as there are a lot of moving parts, particularly due to Concentra. You can take comfort in the fact that we will continue to make smart capital allocation decisions through a market downturn, and the guidance Andrew shared, particularly ROE of 15%+ in 2023, illustrates continued cost discipline. Topic number four is credit risk management. Our guidance assumption was the continuation of the same strong credit book performance achieved in Q2, and that's what we delivered. Fundamentally, nothing in our results indicates increasing credit impairment, but that doesn't make us blind to the broader environment. We continue to manage all of our exposures strictly and in complete alignment with our principle of lending not to lose money. That approach will continue to serve us well.
Provision for credit losses amounted to CAD 5.4 million, nearly consistent with Q2, again at a ratio of six basis points. As you will have read, 56% of PCL was in Stage One and Stage Two, driven by the impact of changes in macroeconomic forecasts in EQB's loss modeling and in consideration of variables like interest rate volatility and housing market conditions as a result of the Bank of Canada's monetary tightening. Additional provisions for Stage One and Stage Two were lower than in Q2. For our overall impaired loans, over a quarter of it relates to one specific commercial loan in British Columbia. The property is already contracted for sale, and the proceeds should cover our exposure. Now my point number five before getting to Q&A, I'll offer a couple more comments on Q4 guidance.
The way to think about Q4 and full year 2022 is the adjusted guidance we provided a year ago is the adjusted guidance we intend to deliver. Since introducing adjusted results in Q1 of this year because of Concentra, these results have been the best indicator of performance as we booked Concentra pre-closing acquisition and integration costs without any of the benefits of owning the assets. With closing having occurred one month into the quarter, Q4 will be very different on a reported basis and not consistent entirely on an adjusted basis. Efficiency in ROE will naturally suppress as we start out of the gate on the integration. We'll also have a day two PCL impact as we rebook all the performing loans. This will be significant and not included in adjusted results in Q4, but you'll find the impact to reported results in the Q4 MD&A.
This is standard IFRS 9 accounting practice that any bank undertakes when they buy another bank from the process of rebooking a performing loan provision. No earnings are actually lost. It's just the accounting process that creates near-term reporting earnings noise. All in, adjusted results will remain the cleanest way to review normal course business in Q4 as we book the accounting changes. Broadly, all things are going to plan and the accretion we expected and communicated for the impact of Concentra is right on track. In closing, we're executing the guidance. We have proven expert credit risk management, increasing diversification in sources and uses of capital. We now have additional scale advantages that provide tailwinds as well as talented new colleagues, customers, and credit union partners. Our challenger bank has distinct resilience and growth not reflected yet in our share price.
We have been investing time and capital to increase the value of our shares and achieve a trading multiple that reflects our track record. We remain disappointed in the wide disconnect in value created versus what is reflected, but we are confident that as we continue to deliver each year, we will see it translate into strong returns. We'll remain focused on improving this by enriching the lives of Canadians and continuing our multi-year approach to ROE-anchored value creation for all stakeholders. Now we'd be pleased to take your questions. Pam, can you please open the line for our analysts?
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question- and- answer session. If you have a question, please press star followed by one on your touch- tone phone. You will hear a three-tone prompt acknowledging your request, and your questions will be pulled in the order they are received. Should you wish to decline from the polling process, please press star followed by two. If you're using a speakerphone, please lift your handset before pressing any keys. One moment for your first question. Your first question comes from Meny Grauman with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning. I wanted to start off by asking about the margin and just whether there's anything unusual that impacted the margin this quarter, 30 basis points sequentially, definitely very large results. I'm wondering if there's anything there. How much did business mix impact the sequential margin increase in particular as well?
I'll let Chadwick deal with the second part, Meny. Thanks for the question. For those more interested in kind of a deeper dive on this, I'd reference you back to Tim Charron's presentation on our Investor Day earlier in the year, where he went through. Tim Charron is our very talented treasurer who laid out our interest rate risk management process. You know, this is kind of right at the heart of our DNA and how we think about the world. If you want to come out and have lunch or a sandwich, and we can geek out about duration of equity and convexity and the equity of the book and so on. We love this stuff, but I think there's really sort of four elements, one we should be thinking about here.
First of all, you know, the books matched by and large quarter- to- quarter. Just maintaining that matching is really important the way we think about it. We also kind of think about how assets and liabilities get repriced as they roll through, particularly in a rising rate, interest rate environment like this. We're particularly careful about how we hedge our pipeline of committed mortgages. This is in effect, we've given an option to our borrowers at the point where we provide a commitment, and I think we're pretty skilled. Our team is very skilled at actually managing that pipeline risk. Finally, I think really what this quarter demonstrates is the value of our deposit franchise. Chadwick talked a little bit about the kind of reduced beta in the EQ Bank platform.
Not only do we see reduced beta on deposit demand, but deposits in EQ Bank, we're also seeing an attractive funding source through EQ Bank GICs. You know, as a reminder, EQ Bank is probably the best place in the country to buy a GIC. It's better than if you go through a broker because we disintermediate the commission there. But it is still cheaper to us than going through a more wholesale channel. Chadwick, do you want to have some comment there on that mix question?
Yeah, I'd say, Meny, it's a great point because business mix, that's core to it, right? If you look at the growth in conventional loans, again, another 4% overall quarter-over-quarter, and now we'd be up in conventional lending 29% year-over-year, which is exactly our focus and strategy. If you look at those assets, especially across the commercial banking categories, and categories like wealth accumulation and reverse mortgages, you can see that growth, right, pretty clearly Q-over-Q and year-over-year in the MD&A. The translating asset average asset yields that you can see that we have in the MD&A too. You can see why those average yields are increasing in a corresponding amount higher than our funding costs due to our funding diversification strategy. I think you're right on with what Andrew said.
It starts with the ROE calculator, and then there are focus and commitment to the business mix diversification, and focus on conventional lending has translated both with the asset classes and on those corresponding yield increases you saw here.
The reason I ask is because what we're hearing from peers, notwithstanding the Bank of Canada increases that have been significant, we're hearing that funding costs are accelerating faster than the ability to reprice the loans on the other side. I'm wondering to what extent is that dynamic impacting you, but you're just seeing offsets to that? Is that something that you're seeing in your book as well? If you can comment on how that impacted the quarterly margin. Clearly, there were other things that were in your favor, but just on that point.
Yes, I think generally not seeing it as much as I sort of heard some other commentary in the market. There's always pricing pressure and there's always, you know, people underbidding. You know, I think as we've always reflected, we have discipline around that. If people want to underbid us, but it doesn't make sense, for the kind of business model, they're not likely to be there for the longer term. You know, we hold our pricing using our ROE model, and then really try to win on service. I think right now my sense is our team, you know, got a little bit of extra capacity with lower volumes already. Our team are really excelling on service and keeping our brokers happy. You know, I think we're able to manage through that piece.
Just following up on that, my understanding is that Concentra is gonna bring the margin down. So I just wanna make sure that I understand that. The follow-up question to that is ex Concentra, what is the expectation for the margin for the end of the year? Do you believe that you can hold on to this margin gain, that you saw in Q3, or how should we think about that?
I think Chadwick can do more math on the Concentra piece. You know, certainly our feeling is that we need to put a bit more discipline to some of the pricing used there, and that will over the next 12 months or so to help improve the kind of margins we're inheriting. You know, certainly we feel comfortable that you know, core business without getting into Concentra has the opportunity to expand margins over the next few quarters rather than see them contract. I don't know on the Concentra piece itself, Chadwick, if you got any thoughts on that?
I think you're right on, Meny . We, as Andrew said, we would expect this level of margin is, for the most part should be sustainable in this environment. The margin is a little bit different with Concentra. Will it have a slight overhang in 2023? Yes, but we would still expect to be at a point of expansion in 2023 even with Concentra.
Does that guidance assume that your kind of deposit mix stays relatively stable, or are you assuming any sort of changes as rates go up, any material changes to your deposit mix?
I think it's sort of broadly similar. We are expecting more growth in EQ Bank. As we mentioned, you know, we're big, you know, expanding into Québec. The payment card we think is gonna add more traction and sort of value to the account. We've got more marketing collateral going into the market with the Make Bank campaign, which will run at the end of this session.
We actually only been in the market with that for a couple of weeks now, and we're seeing some very good traction on that. You know, our thesis here is that we haven't really explained our view well enough to the consumer, and so therefore, you know, we happen to sign up as many people as we would like. We're taking a bit more of a targeted approach here. We're going heavy marketing in a few smaller geographies where we believe there's a particular propensity to use our product. Then really trying to prove out the cost of acquisition if we put more marketing collateral into these markets. You'll see the advertising collateral is really meant to shake the consumer out of their complacency around, you know, what's possible in banking.
You know, we certainly believe that EQ Bank is just sort of setting a new era for convenience and value in banking in Canada. Then we've got a very attractive youngish actor who, you know, brings that enthusiasm and energy and kind of asks the question under this tagline of Make Bank. I do think it's getting traction very quickly.
You would see as well, Meny, then in our funding stacks, you'll start to see some of the information that we include in Q4 2023 for the credit union deposits, for example. That will come into our funding stack as well, adding more diversification. It'll evolve. Then we have higher capacity, as you can imagine, to increase covered bonds as well next year. There's a little bit more diversification and expansion, that's why we think there's some tailwind there and in complement to what Andrew just said.
Thank you. Thanks, Chadwick. Thanks, Andrew.
Thanks, Meny.
Your next question comes from Étienne Ricard with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Thank you and good morning. On EQ Bank, how do you think about the mix of on-demand relative to term deposits? The reason I'm asking is EQ Bank's GIC rates, you know, if you exclude the commissions, appear broadly comparable to what is offered in the brokered market. It seems it's the on-demand deposits that are really supporting the lower beta. How should we think about this dynamic going forward?
In general, there is a pickup, Étienne, on term deposits. We might be paying, if you sort of net the commission off, we might be paying 10-20 basis points less than what it costs us to originate through a broker channel. When you think about that over a five-year GIC or so, you know, it can add up to, you know, 0.5%-1% of the outstanding amount of the GIC. It's pretty meaningful. We are seeing a lot of traction of people switching to term inside the platform. I think we had a week a few weeks ago where CAD 100 million of GICs were purchased inside the platform directly. Certainly where you see the bigger deposit beta is in the demand deposits.
That's what drives our interest in, you know, things like the payment card and getting payroll coming in and, you know, the kind of everyday bank accounts. Clearly, if we can offer great service, great value with, you know, no fees being attached to those things, the ability to send money around the world on our Wise Rails, then you see a sort of lower cost on the interest burden. But we're driving great value with kind of fee-free services that typically get charged at other banks. I think it is that CAD 4 billion of demand deposits is certainly, you know, where you see a lot of the beta coming in.
Right. Switching towards Concentra, could you share initial reception from credit union partners post-closing? How meaningful do you expect credit union deposits to be as a percent of your funding structure going forward?
Yeah. I've been busy working the phones, reaching out to the partners of the credit union, traditional partners of Concentra. I would say, there's general support for the transaction. You know, there are in some quarters, there's obviously some skepticism about a Toronto-based bank buying a prairie bank with a long and storied history in the credit union system. I think, you know, some are watching us.
We've got to walk the walk and make sure that we deliver against the commitments that we're making to people, and I'm committed to doing that. I'm excited about, you know, the 5 million members and, you know, just some of the structural things that we all need when we're, y ou know, I consider ourselves to be very much allied in brotherhood with the credit union system in terms of 93% of the deposits in the country, I think, sit with the big banks. You know, we're allies in this program. We all need to invest more in technology to, you know, to take banking to where it needs to go over the next few decades. I think we can really work a strong partnership with this group of people, with the credit union system and the members. Yeah, they're feeling fairly enthusiastic about that part.
Any other additional guidance that we'll give in Q4 in terms of that component of our funding stack. What I would say, it is a multi-billion dollar contribution to funding, but we'll come back with a little bit more calibration around what we would target for that in a normal course going forward as we continue to build these relationships.
From a credit perspective, a broader industry trend, given the interest rate backdrop, is an extending amortization period on single-family mortgages. First, is this a concern? Second, how does having a one-year term on most Alt-A mortgages relative to five years for prime influence your underwriting?
I—First of all, we're not doing that, so we don't offer mortgages over 30 years. You'll see in our sup pack our data. You know, we are seeing participants in the market extending amortization in order to make mortgages more affordable. That doesn't seem prudent, frankly, to us, and it's not a road we've chosen to go down. Although there is sort of competitive pressure there, but it just doesn't feel sensible. You know, I would say a lot of our mortgages, as you say, are sort of shorter term in the one-, two-, three-year term. It certainly makes us think in our underwriting process about how payment shock could influence that.
You know, of course, we are applying the stress tests applied by B-20, so at least a 2% shift in interest rate on the mortgage is being applied. It's gonna be interesting to see as inflation goes up, presumably incomes will be going up to kind of keep people cost of living adjustments, you know, moving incomes up. At the same time, though, you know, there's clearly gonna be some payment shock that runs through the book. Ron and I have worked through a bunch of files recently that have, you know, been through the renewal process since banks kind of really start getting aggressive. You know, it actually looks like most of our borrowers there are pretty comfortable from what we could see.
There's no doubt there will be some people whose businesses are being impacted, particularly by kind of the aftershocks of COVID. These increased payment shocks will, you know, be in a tougher spot, so we'll have to work with our customers to be empathetic to those situations.
I'll just briefly add, Étienne, to page 21 in the supplementary pack again has our amortization tables as well.
Great. Thank you very much.
Your next question comes from Lemar Persaud with Cormark Securities. Please go ahead.
Thanks. I wanna first touch on the 2023 guidance, and I'm wondering if you could unpack what you mean on the 15%+ ROE target. You have some text there saying subject to refinement of Concentra Bank integration and synergies assumptions. Should I read that to mean that you're expecting the Concentra deal and expected synergies to outperform initial estimates and more than offset the additional equity raise? If so, can you help us think through where you're expecting to outperform in Concentra and what the revised synergies are?
I'd say, Lamar, it's a fair question. Good morning. We had committed, if you recall, about CAD 30 million in initial benefits. And that would be in the 2023 year, assuming we close Concentra this year. That would translate into mid-single-digit EPS accretion, and for the first year. What I would say is we believe we will achieve what we committed, but we'll come back in Q4 with more context on that. As a reminder, we've, you know, we've been working with these partners now for about eight or nine days, so it's still pretty early into the close. I think the next few months will help us, but we believe we'll achieve what we said we would, and that will translate into that 15% ROE growth.
Yeah. I think sort of where you're going with that, John Aiken, is how I'm thinking about it. You know, I think Chadwick and his team and the broader management team have done a great job identifying the CAD 30 million. You know, it sort of feels like there's a little bit more there. So there may be some upside for us is the way I think about it, you know. But obviously, we don't want to commit that to the market until we've, you know, we wanna be careful, you know, first of all, do no damage with the assets. So, you know, we have to be thoughtful and really work with the team at Concentra.
You know, the things like technology costs where we can, you know, move on to cheaper platforms or integrate our technology and so on, and how quickly we can do that. You know, these things need to be done with a degree of caution. It feels like there might be more opportunity than our original business case estimated.
Okay. That's fair. Just moving over to the margins then, you know, obviously very strong recovery in NIM this quarter. I'm just wondering if I can go about it a different way. I'm wondering if you could unpack some of the factors that surprised you to the upside this quarter versus last quarter, and if you could also talk about how that could evolve moving forward. 'Cause that 13 basis points was, you know, quite substantial.
Yeah, I don't know that it really did surprise me, frankly, that much. Having said that, it's always a bit tricky when you're sort of in, you know, one month into the quarter. You know, we don't yet have our October results from, for example, now, and we're talking about, you know, what the quarter might look like, and the same thing was true in July. So, you know, the math showed a fair bit of expansion coming at us. I think perhaps we were a touch cautious in projecting that to the street until we actually saw it manifest. I don't know if that makes sense.
Yeah. That's fair, I think, Andrew. I think part of it as well was the sort of delayed realization of the benefits of covered bonds and the EQ Bank rate as well. Just the, you know, look at the velocity of the Bank of Canada increases this year, right? That corresponding change in average asset yields versus the moves we'd already been making in our funding stack. I think it finally started to elegantly translate in Q3 as well. That's why Andrew would say he wasn't surprised, 'cause he's extremely precise with forecasting. But it is kind of going to plan now.
Okay. Yeah, it was just, you know, just seeing 13 basis points sequentially is a little bit of a shocker sitting from my side of the table here, to be honest. [ It's a challenger bank.]
I mean, if I can just give you some more color there, [Lemar] . We run just about a one-year duration of equity. Actually, a little bit less than that. Happy to, you know, chat, you know, about how you would think about that. What that means actually is as interest rates jump dramatically. It's kind of unwritten in the book. Our assets have actually dropped in value a little bit more than our liabilities. What will happen now over time is that it should translate into higher NIM as we work through time here. I think that's probably more of an offline conversation.
Generally the big banks, as we understand it, run with a three-four years of duration of equity. We run a pretty short duration of equity in around. We've actually been running at about 0.7 years for much of this year, which was sort of done in the face of rising interest rates. It's been a good management approach to take a very little interest rate position. I think for those of, you know, those who follow the big banks, you'll see that kind of NIM thing takes a little bit longer to work through as the factors, the factors work through.
Now, how quickly can you adjust your duration of equity, like if you believe the interest rate environment is gonna shift? Like how fast can you adjust that?
Well, you can adjust it very fast with derivatives. I mean, you can adjust it in a day. We don't do that because effectively we're adjusting our duration of equity, we would be taking a view on interest rates. You know, we know that we can't predict where government bonds are gonna go, or at least we have respect for the market, and so we don't try to take a view on that. It's really about how we're positioning our book up against the general state of interest rates. You know, the reason why we run a one-year duration of equity as a sort of theory is that generally the yield curve is sloping upwards.
If over a many- year period you run a one-year duration of equity, you get a slight pickup in that, in that sort of steepness of the yield curve. We don't take a view. You know, year in, year out, we're basically running the same duration of equity. You know, there is some complexity in all of that. You know, convexity is obviously the second order derivative of that duration. At any point in time, you know, we could be a little exposed to how fast duration can move just with general interest rates, particularly in this highly volatile environment. You know, our treasury team's on top of all of that stuff. You know, there's some other optionality embedded in the book, frankly, that adds some other levels of complexity.
It's a really you know, the core of it is matching the book, and it's matched at around that one-year duration equity.
I think it's key too, Lemar, that Andrew would've said the same thing a few years ago too, right? Our strategy has remained consistent. This is how we manage our book, and we're still about 80% term match, the one-year duration of equity. The point is a consistent strategy here translating.
Yeah. I mean, we essentially, I would say that, you know, for the big banks, we sort of have adopted the TD philosophy. As a fellow that used to do a lot of work with TD in the treasury department that, you know, I think over 10 years ago we'd adopted this one-year duration of equity position, and we've held that position for the last decade.
Great. Thanks for the time, guys.
Thanks, Lemar.
Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you do have any questions, please press star one. Your next question comes from Rasib Bhanji with TD Securities. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thank you. If I could start on your 2023 guidance, just the loan growth outlook, around 10%-15% for most of your commercial assets, but only 3%-5% for Alt-A. Could you give more color on why the noticeable difference in growth between these two buckets?
Yeah, absolutely. Thanks for the question. I mean, generally speaking, you know, we're trying to grow risk-weighted assets at about 15%. The higher ROEs we generally get in the Alt-A book, so we would tend to prefer, you know, Alt-A assets just in terms of kind of the return on equity they drive. But clearly we're working within the constraint of our risk appetite framework and so on. Our anticipation for that, as I've mentioned in the call, you know, so the anticipation for the first half of next year, it'll be more muted than we've seen in recent years. We'll see lower growth in the Alt-A book.
That just frees up some capital for the commercial team to go to work in a more aggressive way than has been the case for the last year or two. They have many levers they can pull, you know, right across specialized BES or CFG business, CMHC construction. There's a whole bunch of things that team can do. In fact, fortunately, they're really good at flexing. It puts a lot of demand on that team, but because, you know, they're working with partners, sometimes we're gonna be a little bit more, you know, conducive to holding now, holding larger loans. The team there, you know, we'll have a little bit more runway to grow a little faster next year, because of the slowing in the housing market.
We certainly, you know, houses do get purchased. There's always demand as people enter the housing formation stage of their life. You know, children arrive, they need to buy a bigger house with, you know, another bedroom and so on. Really we're gonna see a little bit of deferred activity in the housing market, and we're anticipating by the end of next year we'll be back on a more sort of normal cadence.
I would say too, Rasib , it's great to hear from you. We're also just a slight nuance too, we're adding nearly a few billion in ALT from Concentra as well, right? So it goes back to the point Andrew made, that we're adding all these asset classes late in the year, so the relative growth looks a little bit lighter as well in the first half. You'll see more of that in our Q4 results too.
Okay. Yep, that makes sense. Second question was just on your liquid assets. I believe they're, in dollar terms, they're flat year-over-year, but as a percentage of total assets, they were down year-over-year. More of a two-part question over here. First part was if you could either quantify, just speak directionally onto how much of an impact that has had on NIM year- to- date. The second part was, I think they're at 8%, so that 8% level, I believe is in line with your historical averages, but it is lower than the higher levels we saw in late 2020 or early 2021. I would've assumed that given this uncertain environment, you may be holding higher levels of liquidity than you normally would. If you can provide any color over there as well.
I can sort of answer that one. You know, the liquidity that we hold is based on a bunch of things, a bunch of factors. You know, one of them being the forward mortgage commitments we have in place. With a slight softening in demand in our ALT book, you know, that demand has come down. You know, I'd say that if you sort of backed out that we're actually holding a bit more liquidity than we would normally for, you know, partly for the reason that you mentioned around sort of just, you know, a bit more volatility in markets. Also, you know, facing the Concentra transaction a month later, we wanted to be holding more liquidity than normal.
You know, what you see on the balance sheet at the end of a record isn't necessarily reflective of the total liquidity capacity either. We might have undrawn lines of ABCP and securitization vehicles that we can actually draw liquidity from. We're very comfortable our liquidity position is bottom line right now.
Okay. Makes sense. Just my last question. I noticed there was some Stage One releases on the commercial bucket. Any color over there? Was that all model driven or was there something else in there?
Yeah. This is Ron here. Thanks for the question. Happy to address that. We've been quite transparent throughout the year. Our commercial team has reduced its appetite for construction. You have notwithstanding a slight growth in the book, you do have an underlying change in the dynamic in that book where we are taking less construction and and less large loans as we have throughout the year as we've managed it very actively. As one would expect when you improve, you know, arguably the credit quality of that book, notwithstanding a little bit of growth, we would expect to see exactly what we did with our models where the model number comes down slightly as part of just a normal dynamic that would occur within IFRS 9.
Okay. That makes sense. Appreciate the color. Thank you.
Thanks, Rasib.
Mr. Moor, there are no further questions at this time. Back to you for closing comments.
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