Granite Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX:GRT.UN)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2018

Nov 7, 2018

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the conference call of Granite REIT. Speaking to you on the call this morning is Kevan Gorrie, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Ilias Konstantopoulos, Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin today's call, I would like to remind you that statements and information made in today's discussion may constitute forward-looking statements and forward-looking information, and that actual results could differ materially from any conclusion, forecast, or projection. These statements and information are based on certain material facts or assumptions, reflect management's current expectations, and are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties are discussed in Granite's material filed with the Canadian Securities Administrators and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission from time to time, including the Risk Factors section of its Annual Information Form for 2017, filed on March 1st, 2018.

Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any of these forward-looking statements and forward-looking information. Granite undertakes no intention or obligation to update or revise any of these forward-looking statements or forward-looking information, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, except as required by law. In addition to the remarks this morning, may include financial terms and measures that do not have a standardized meaning under international financial reporting standards. Please refer to the Q3 2018 condensed combined financial results and management's discussion and analysis of Granite Real Estate Investment Trust and Granite REIT Incorporated and other materials filed with the Canadian Securities Administrators and U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for additional relevant information. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded Wednesday, November 7th, 2018. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kevan Gorrie. Please go ahead.

Kevan Gorrie
President and CEO, Granite REIT

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for the Q3 call. In addition to Ilias, I'm joined by Lorne Kumer and Michael Ramparas with our real estate group. I'd like to begin today's call with Ilias going through a review of the financial results and commentary. Then I'd like to follow up with a leasing update, an update on our acquisition and disposition program, and then speak a little bit about, from a high level anyways, our strategic plan. On that, I will turn it over to Ilias.

Ilias Konstantopoulos
CFO, Granite REIT

Thank you, Kevan, and good morning to all. Prior to diving into the results for the quarter, I'd like to preface with some overarching remarks regarding the acquisitions and dispositions made during the last year, as these impact the results in the quarter and will impact future quarters. Year-to-date, we've acquired approximately CAD 478 million worth of properties at a 5.8% going-in yield. This is in addition to the IDI acquisition of CAD 155 million at a 6.1% yield in Q4 2017. On the disposition side, we've realized on approximately CAD 743 million worth of dispositions, when including the two assets held for sale at September 30th. This significant capital recycling has reduced our overall Magna concentration to 57% and 48% on a revenue and GLA basis, respectively, at Q3.

Further, we have contractual commitments relating to construction and development projects exceeding CAD 300 million, which we expect will contribute a stabilized yield in the mid to high 5% range. These construction and development projects are going to come on stream in Q4 2019 and Q1 2020. Two further items to highlight for the quarter. First, Granite's Board has approved an increase to our targeted annualized distribution to CAD 2.80 per unit from CAD 2.72 per unit, beginning with the monthly distribution payable in January. This increase marks the seventh consecutive annual increase and represents a cumulative increase of 40%. Second, Granite anticipates it will declare a special distribution in the fourth quarter of 2018 as a result of the increase in taxable income generated by the sale transactions completed during the nine-month period ended September, and those anticipated to be completed during the fourth quarter.

Granite intends to make the special distribution payable partly in cash and partially in units to provide unit holders with cash to fund the additional tax associated with the special distribution while preserving most of the net cash proceeds generated by the sale transactions for reinvestment in the acquisition and development of real estate properties in keeping with our strategy. The amount of Granite's special distribution is expected to be approximately CAD 1.20 per unit, which will be declared in December and payable in January. I'll now briefly summarize the operating results for the third quarter. Beginning with revenue. Revenue in the quarter increased CAD 3 million to CAD 63.8 million from CAD 60.8 million. The main contributing factors to the increase in the quarter include the acquisition of a total of 10 properties since September 2017, which contributed an increase of CAD 10.7 million during the quarter.

Contractual adjustments comprising CPI inflation and fixed contractual rent increases across our portfolio added a total of CAD 0.7 million to revenue. The leasing of most of the space in Novi, Michigan in January increased our revenue by CAD 1.1 million, and the net favorable impact of foreign exchange during the quarter increased revenue by CAD 1.5 million as the Canadian dollar depreciated against both the EUR and the USD. These favorable factors were offset by the impact from the sale of 15 properties in Canada and the U.S., which decreased revenue by CA D 8.6 million. The vacancies from five lease expiries in Germany, Netherlands, and Canada decreased revenue by CAD 1 million. Lastly, a lease termination and close-out fees in the prior year period accounted for a further CAD 1.6 million decrease in the third quarter. Turning to FFO.

For the third quarter, our reported FFO, in accordance with REALPAC's definition, was CAD 39.1 million, or CAD 0.86 per unit, relative to the reported FFO of CAD 40.5 million or CAD 0.86 per unit in the prior year period. In comparison, when we exclude the lease termination close-out fees, FFO would have been CAD 38.9 million, or CAD 0.83 per unit in the prior year period. The corresponding FFO payout ratio for Q3 was 80%, as compared to 79% in the prior year period, after making the above-noted adjustment. The slight increase in FFO was attributable to the revenue increase discussed earlier that was offset primarily by slightly higher G&A, higher interest, and FX loss.

Turning to AFFO for the third quarter, our reported AFFO was CAD 37.7 million or CAD 0.82 per unit relative to the reported AFFO of CAD 40.1 million or CAD 0.85 per unit in the prior year period.

The corresponding AFFO payout ratio for Q3 was 82%, as compared to 80% in the prior year period, after making the adjustment in connection with the lease termination close-out fees. Fair value gains in the quarter were recorded at CAD 141.6 million and were largely attributable to increase in market rents and compression in discount and terminal cap rates for the GTA, the U.S., Germany, and the Netherlands. Turning over to the balance sheet. The IFRS value of our portfolio stood at CAD 3.2 billion, implying an overall cap rate of 6.8%, and remained entirely unencumbered by any secured debt. Our income-producing portfolio of 85 properties at quarter end comprised 32.5 million square feet , had an occupancy of 97.3%, and a WALT of 5.9 years.

Our total debt stood at CAD 716 million, was comprised only of unsecured debt, with a weighted average term to maturity of 4.2 years and a weighted cost of 2.53%. Our net leverage stood at 16%, which gives us debt capacity in excess of CAD 1.25 billion at a 40% net leverage ratio. Our liquidity at September 30 was approximately CAD 700 million and included CAD 193 million of cash. Our credit rating remains at BBB mid with a stable outlook by each of DBRS and Moody's. We did not make any purchases under our NCIB program during the quarter. Our units were 45.7 million basic units outstanding at quarter end. And finally, the distributions for the remainder of the three months of 2018 are expected to continue at the current monthly rate of CAD 0.22 per unit. I'll now turn the call back to Kevan.

Kevan Gorrie
President and CEO, Granite REIT

Thanks, Ilias. To recap our 2018 expiries, there were a total of 30 leases encompassing 4.8 million square feet , generating approximately CAD 25.4 million in annual revenue that expired in 2018 or will expire by the end of the year. As of today, we have renewed or are finalizing renewals on 3.6 million, or 75%, of the expiring space at an average increase in rental rate of 7.2%. Of the remaining expiries, roughly 700,000 has or is in the process of being sold, leaving 500,000 sq ft to be leased in Vaughan and Rotterdam, on which we are currently in discussions with multiple prospects. Based on our leasing activity, we expect to finish 2018 with occupancy above 98%. For 2019, we have approximately 2.3 million square feet of leases expiring, and we have to date renewed roughly 950,000 sq ft or 40%.

We are working on a number of leases currently and expect overall the rental rate to be flat to slightly positive for those expiries. On our last earnings call, we mentioned that one of our major tenants in Columbus, Bon-Ton, in 744,000 sq ft in West Jefferson, was in liquidation, but that leasing activity was strong and we expected to be able to re-lease the building in short order. By way of update, the lease has been assumed in full by Torrid, a creditworthy tenant, on the same lease terms at no additional cost and no loss of rent to Granite. We acquired the building in May on a vacant basis for CAD 48 per square foot .

With the new tenant in place, the fair market value of the asset is now estimated to be approximately CAD 63 per square foot, adding approximately $11 million, or CAD 0.30 per unit in NAV. On the acquisition front, in addition to the closing of the 700,000 sq ft acquisition at Erfurt, Germany for CAD 83 million, we made a CAD 20 million deposit in connection with the acquisition in Texas. Subsequent to the quarter, we closed on a 13-acre parcel of land adjacent to one of our properties in West Jefferson, Columbus.

We are in various stages of the process on approximately CAD 225 million in acquisitions in Canada and the U.S., and we hope to provide further details sometime in the fourth quarter. On the development side, we recently received site plan approval on our proposed 500,000 sq ft development in Plainfield, Indianapolis, on a 29-acre site adjacent to our Allpoints property. We hope to commence construction in Q2 of 2019 and generate an expected development yield of 6.6%. Since June 30th, we have sold CAD 342 million in non-core assets, representing roughly CAD 23 million in annual revenue. In addition, we expect to close on the sale of a nine-acre parcel of land in Brampton, Ontario, in the first quarter of 2019 for CAD 13.4 million. I am pleased to report that the Board of Trustees has approved our new strategic plan, which effectively sets the course for our organization through 2023.

I would first like to thank all of our trustees and those involved in the development of this plan. It was a true team effort. The process of developing the plan included and involved consultation with many important stakeholders, including unitholders, investors, our tenants, brokers, analysts, logistics and e-commerce providers, a number of property and market tours, and detailed research and analysis. We will endeavor to communicate more details on our strategy over the coming months. From a high level, the strategy is grounded in maximizing total return for investors. That means taking a long-term view, focusing on NAV growth and platform value to create value for investors while maintaining our best-in-class financial flexibility. Growth will occur through thoughtful deployment of the balance sheet, but maintaining conservative leverage and payout ratios throughout the process.

This growth will include a combination of core, value-add, and opportunistic investments, including an increased focus on development, all with a common goal of continuing to build an institutional quality portfolio that will generate superior total return over the long haul. Our focus will be to acquire and develop modern distribution and e-commerce product in core and emerging distribution and e-commerce hubs in the U.S., Europe, and Canada, with a goal of achieving scale in our target markets. We will build on our existing platforms in Canada and Europe, and plan to introduce a dedicated U.S. platform beginning in 2019 to deliver on that plan. As a result, we expect to reduce our Magna exposure through acquisition and selective dispositions, as well as exiting non-core markets.

As was the case this past quarter, we hope to continue to realize on the embedded value of our assets through independent valuations, disposition of non-core assets, and active asset management. On that note, I will open up the call to questions.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to register a question, please press the one followed by the four on your telephone. You will hear a three-tone prompt to acknowledge your request. If your question has been answered and you would like to withdraw your registration, please press the one followed by the three. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift your handset before entering your request. One moment please for the first question. The first question comes from the line of Howard Leung with Veritas Investment Research. Please go ahead.

Howard Leung
Analyst, Veritas Investment Research

Good morning.

Kevan Gorrie
President and CEO, Granite REIT

Good morning.

Howard Leung
Analyst, Veritas Investment Research

Just wanted to ask about those developments and construction projects. You said that they're over CAD 300 million and kind of cap rates at mid to high 5s. Any chance that those might also be sold, or do you plan to really develop and hold them?

Kevan Gorrie
President and CEO, Granite REIT

Yeah. The intent, Howard, is to develop each of those projects and hold them. That's our current intent. We expect those to come on stream later in 2019, 2020. The thinking, of course, is to replace income that was sold, if you will. Our current intent would be to hold.

Howard Leung
Analyst, Veritas Investment Research

Right. I guess that's related to my next question about the special distribution. You had said that you want to keep part of that in distribution units to preserve cash. Some of that cash, I guess, is used for these construction projects?

Ilias Konstantopoulos
CFO, Granite REIT

Yeah. It's not only those construction projects, but the pipeline that Kevan referred to. I think the stage of evolution for Granite is we're in deployment mode to optimize our balance sheet. Therefore, from our perspective, the highest and best use as we see it is to deploy cash back into the business. We need to be thoughtful and consider tax implications across our unitholder base, and we're giving a lot of thought to that. We expect we're not going to be able to please everybody, but we're trying to find a balance to meet the company's strategy on the one hand, and meet any tax obligations that might exist for the base of unitholders that we have.

Howard Leung
Analyst, Veritas Investment Research

Right. No, that makes sense. On the Magna properties, I saw that you were able to get them to, I guess take back their right of first offer. I just want to find out how that happened or why they might have done that.

Ilias Konstantopoulos
CFO, Granite REIT

Sure. I won't speculate as to why Magna did that. I can tell you what we did, though, is Magna is an important tenant. We're sensitive to their needs and objectives. When they approached us, we consented to the decision of Magna's exercise of its ROFR. We agreed to complete the sales with the original third party on terms that were, frankly, a little bit more favorable as it turned out. That met the objectives of Magna. It met our objective in that the color of the money is the color of the money. Ultimately, the terms were slightly better. In the end, we completed our objective, which was to recycle those assets which we viewed were not core to us.

Kevan Gorrie
President and CEO, Granite REIT

Howard, it's Kevan. I would add to that. We don't know. We are not privy to what deal Magna would've worked out with the buyer on this transaction.

Howard Leung
Analyst, Veritas Investment Research

Okay. No, I understand. They just came back to you and said, "Okay, we'd rather have it be sold to the third party." That's kind of what happened.

Ilias Konstantopoulos
CFO, Granite REIT

Yeah. Effectively, yeah.

Howard Leung
Analyst, Veritas Investment Research

Okay. Makes sense. The cap rates on the multipurpose, I saw that over the quarter. Looks like it compressed by about almost 60 basis points. Is anything special there that drove the compression?

Kevan Gorrie
President and CEO, Granite REIT

Yeah. It's Kevan. As Ilias referred to, a lot of that was in the GTA. I mentioned the Bon-Ton assumption to Torrid, which drove value there. The bulk of it is in the GTA. I think when we looked in the third quarter, we endeavored to have independent valuations of all our real estate. It's clear to us that the market has continued to strengthen significantly in Toronto, both in terms of cap rate and market rental rate. We went through that process, and I think we landed on a reasonable increase in values. I think we're still within the conservative range there.

Howard Leung
Analyst, Veritas Investment Research

Yeah. Your weighted average is still above seven, I'd say that's still fairly conservative. Thanks. That's really helpful. I'll turn it back.

Kevan Gorrie
President and CEO, Granite REIT

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Pammi Bir with Scotia Capital. Please go ahead.

Pammi Bir
Analyst, Scotia Capital

Thanks. Good morning. Just in terms of the strategic plan, and I realize we'll probably get some more color, I guess, over the next few weeks or months, but can you give us a sense of how you're thinking about some of the assets or markets that you might lighten up on over the next year or so, if any?

Kevan Gorrie
President and CEO, Granite REIT

Well, it's a fair question. I don't want to go into too much detail, and I think it is important for us to be as clear as we can be on a strategic plan of where we're going without compromising any competitive advantage we may have. Saying that, there are markets where we don't feel it would be worthwhile to try and build scale. We won't be able to build scale. I think of the U.K., potentially Spain, Portland, and there are other markets. Those would be three where I think it would be very difficult and not very worthwhile for us to spend a lot of time and try to aggregate scale in those markets.

Pammi Bir
Analyst, Scotia Capital

Would any additional special purpose assets be part of this program, or are you fairly comfortable with what you're currently holding?

Kevan Gorrie
President and CEO, Granite REIT

Well, I think overall, and I think I said this on the second quarter call, we love the cash flow. This, for me, continues to be a very good problem to have with this covenant and the stickiness of this tenant. That being said, it's hard for us to point to these to be core. Saying that, we would look at an asset like CarMax and Multimatic and Milton because of the location. That's something we would be comfortable holding for a very long period of time. I think what's important is as we move down this road and reduce the concentration to a single tenant, that we have to execute as well as possible.

We have to the degree that we can influence the conditions or wait for the right conditions, it's important that we have optimal conditions on which to dispose of assets if that's what we decide to do. The most important thing is we're making the right real estate decisions. I believe overall, the progress we're making on that front and diversification by tenants, is the right one. We'll continue to do that and follow that path.

Pammi Bir
Analyst, Scotia Capital

That's helpful, Kevan. Just thinking about the Magna exposure. You're sitting at, call it, 57%, I think, at the end of this quarter. How do you see that playing out, call it, over the next 12-15 months, as, again, thinking of the broader strategic plan?

Kevan Gorrie
President and CEO, Granite REIT

I'm glad you phrased it that way, because I think I would be a little nervous talking about three years, four years down now. I would say in the next 12- 15 months, I would be comfortable projecting that our Magna concentration will be below 50% by revenue by the end of 2019.

Pammi Bir
Analyst, Scotia Capital

Okay. Just lastly, I guess, on the balance sheet, can you provide some color on how we should think about your target leverage going forward? Was there any change in terms of the target range?

Kevan Gorrie
President and CEO, Granite REIT

I don't know if there was. I'm looking at Ilias now. There's been a lot of discussions at the Board. I think Ilias and I both, and the Board, both agree firmly that we don't want to give up what is really a differentiator for our company. That 35%-40% range is still there. I think that's important to us. There may be opportunities that will push leverage up on a short-term basis above 40, but on a normalized basis, we are more comfortable, I think, in the 35%-40% range.

I think if you look at the distribution increase, the decision around that on the payout ratio as well, it's important to us on an AFFO basis that that payout ratio be maintained on a normalized, stabilized basis in the 75%-80% range and give us the opportunity to increase the distribution on an annual basis. That's our goal. I don't think that that's changed.

Ilias Konstantopoulos
CFO, Granite REIT

No, I don't think it has, Kevan, either. In fact, I would say the only thing I would add to that is that it enables us to execute on the strategy that you were referencing and achieve the objectives within those parameters.

Pammi Bir
Analyst, Scotia Capital

Great. Thanks very much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Mike Markidis with Desjardins. Please go ahead.

Mike Markidis
Analyst, Desjardins

Hey, guys. I was just hoping to get a little bit more color on the CAD 300 million of commitments. When I say color, I don't mean you to disclose any more detail on the forward Texas purchase, but just to make sure I've got all the contributors right. Within that CAD 300 million, and I think it was Canadian, correct me if I'm wrong, that includes the forward purchase for the Texas property. It includes the expansion you're doing in West Jefferson. I think that's CAD 18 million. I would assume that also includes the development that you've announced in Plainfield and based on 500,000 sq ft, I guess that would maybe be around CAD 25 million-CAD 30 million of costs. Is there anything else in there? Would those be the main components?

Ilias Konstantopoulos
CFO, Granite REIT

Those would be the main components. There are a few other items in that, but those would be the main components, Mike.

Mike Markidis
Analyst, Desjardins

Okay.

Ilias Konstantopoulos
CFO, Granite REIT

J ust to be clear, we're not being coy with it. You would appreciate there's a lot of sensitivity around disclosure with all kinds of transactions. We're trying to balance that while being forthcoming. I think that's implicit.

Mike Markidis
Analyst, Desjardins

No, absolutely. I wasn't trying to go down that path. I just wanted to make sure I wasn't missing anything in terms of other potential projects that were included in that figure. Just lastly, a broad question, Kevan, on my behalf. You've mentioned that you've got a pretty robust near-term pipeline. If you could just give us some broad comments in terms of where you're seeing the biggest volume of activity today from a deal flow perspective. That's the first question. Secondly is, where are you seeing the best opportunities?

Kevan Gorrie
President and CEO, Granite REIT

It's a good question, Mike. In terms of volume, I think the U.S. continues to lead the way. We are working on an acquisition in Canada. We're very happy about that. You know my goal being more relevant here. That being said, it's dwarfed by the activity that we're seeing in the U.S. We have a very disciplined lens. We know the markets that we want to be in. Even that being said, on a disciplined basis, there is quite a lot of volume in the U.S. In Europe, that is a strategy that we still have to finalize on a market-by-market basis. We feel strongly the countries that we want to be in. We have the opportunity to build on scale and use our platform in a number of markets. That is still being refined. We are looking at acquisitions in Europe.

It's just right now, I would say most of our focus is Canada and the U.S.

Mike Markidis
Analyst, Desjardins

Okay. That's helpful. Thanks very much.

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please press the one followed by the four. The next question comes from the line of Sam Damiani with TD Securities. Please go ahead.

Sam Damiani
Analyst, TD Securities

Thank you, and good morning. Most of my questions have been answered, but just looking at the strategy for the next few years, what sources of debt are you looking at tapping to fund that growth?

Ilias Konstantopoulos
CFO, Granite REIT

Sam, we are looking at all sources all the time. This being said, we have issued historically unsecured debentures. There continues to be a bias in favor of unsecured debentures as they provide us with the flexibility that we need. The conditions in the market, we continue to believe are favorable. Without limiting our options, I would say there is a continued bias for those types of securities.

Sam Damiani
Analyst, TD Securities

What type of room on the balance sheet is there for additional EUR debentures that you can swap and effectively get a very low coupon?

Ilias Konstantopoulos
CFO, Granite REIT

Right. That would be governed by our exposure in Europe, which we have, as you will see in our disclosure, about CAD 1 billion, CAD 3 billion, CAD 4 billion of assets, and a good chunk of our cash flows is derived from Europe. There is lots of headroom, more than we would have use for in the near- term, if you will. It will be governed in part by the natural hedge that you rightly point to, and then where we are deploying capital over the course of our strategy. Hopefully that directionally gives you a sense.

Sam Damiani
Analyst, TD Securities

That is helpful. With the strategy, was there talk of using currency hedges at all to smooth out the earnings?

Ilias Konstantopoulos
CFO, Granite REIT

Currency hedge. We were mindful that, as we've done in the past, if we could naturally hedge our exposure, we will. That is definitely something that would be on the table as and when we tap the debt markets.

Sam Damiani
Analyst, TD Securities

Okay. Just finally, have you looked at the data center market as an opportunity for Granite? If so, just curious what your thoughts are.

Kevan Gorrie
President and CEO, Granite REIT

The short answer, Sam, is no. The truth is we do view the data center sector as something that could be viewed as complementary to what we do. It is e-commerce related in a lot of ways. We would understand that real estate as well as most others. I just think in the short- term, it is not the right move for us. We have too much opportunity and too much to do in our core sector, we'll concentrate on that. It might be something we look at in a couple of few years, but not in the near- term.

Sam Damiani
Analyst, TD Securities

Thank you. That's helpful.

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press the one followed by the four on your telephone. It appears at this time that there are no further questions on the phone lines.

Ilias Konstantopoulos
CFO, Granite REIT

Okay. Well, on that note, thank you everybody for joining us today, and we look forward to the next quarter. Take care.

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. That does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines. Thank you, and have a good day.