Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Nutrien 2022 Q3 earnings conference call. At this time, all lines are in listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. If at any time during this call you require immediate assistance, please press star zero for the operator. This call is being recorded on Friday, November 3rd, 2022. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Jeff Holzman, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to Nutrien's third quarter of 2022 conference call. As we conduct this call, various statements that we make about future expectations, plans, and prospects contain forward-looking information. Certain material assumptions were applied in making these conclusions and forecasts. Therefore, actual results could differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking information. Additional information about these factors and assumptions are contained in our quarterly reports to shareholders, as well as our most recent annual report, MD&A, and annual information form filed with Canadian and U.S. Securities Commissions. I will now turn the call over to Ken Seitz, President and CEO, and Pedro Farah, our CFO, for opening comments before we take your questions.
Well, good morning and welcome to Nutrien's third quarter earnings call. 2022 has been shaped by geopolitical events that have heightened the world's focus on food and energy security. Nutrien has responded by taking a number of strategic actions that position our company to meet the demands of our customers and deliver superior long-term value for our shareholders. We expect to generate record earnings in 2022, but acknowledge that potash market conditions in the second half of the year have been more volatile than previously anticipated. Potash demand in North America and Brazil declined in the third quarter as buyers worked through inventory that was built early in the year. These regions represent the two largest markets for Nutrien's potash. Therefore, the decline in demand and prices had a more significant near-term impact on our business.
However, we view this as a temporary lull, and our confidence in the outlook for the fundamentals of our business has not changed. Global grain supply remains very tight, with the stocks-to-use ratio projected to fall to a more than quarter-century low this crop year. High energy costs and export restrictions continue to impact global fertilizer production and trade, most notably in Europe, and we believe these supply constraints will persist well beyond 2022. We maintain that in a supply-constrained environment, no other producer has an ability like Nutrien to bring on additional low-cost potash and nitrogen volumes to meet pent-up demand. Therefore, we continue to advance our strategic growth initiatives that are based on a positive multi-year view of the fundamentals.
Pedro will speak more to our capital allocation plans for the remainder of 2022, but I will first provide a review of our third quarter results and outlook. Nutrien delivered record adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter and through the first nine months of the year, supported by higher realized fertilizer prices and record results from our retail business. Retail had a strong third quarter as growers were incentivized to invest in their crops, which led to increased demand for our proprietary nutritional products, which partially offset a delay in purchases for commodity fertilizer products. Demand for crop protection products was strong, and we delivered higher margins driven by growth in proprietary product sales and tight supply for many crop chemistries. We closed the Marca Agro and Casa do Adubo acquisitions in Brazil, substantially increasing our national presence in this large and rapidly growing agriculture market.
We are on track to exceed our target of $100 million in annual EBITDA from Brazil in 2023. In potash, Canpotex's increased volume sold to Southeast Asia and delivered higher contract volumes to China. Shipments to Brazil slowed in the third quarter as buyers worked down inventory that was built in the first half, including significant purchases that were made in advance of export restrictions on Belarus and Russia. North American potash sales declined due to higher than expected carryover from the condensed spring season, buyer deferrals as prices moved lower during the quarter, and higher carrying costs. Our average realized potash price was well above the previous year, but declined from the second quarter, tracking the reduction in spot prices in Brazil and North America.
Over the last few weeks, the pace of decline in Brazil has slowed, and U.S. inland prices have been supported by restricted barge movements and a strong start to the fall application season. Nitrogen benchmark prices strengthened due to higher European gas costs and associated plant curtailments, as well as continued supply restrictions on Chinese and Russian nitrogen products. However, our realized prices were down from the trailing quarter as summer fill programs were impacted by the seasonal reset that occurred late in the second quarter. We increased exports of nitrogen solutions to higher netback offshore markets in the third quarter, but experienced gas supply curtailments in Trinidad that primarily impacted our production and exports of urea.
Our phosphate business delivered solid results, supported by having a more diverse product offering, including our high-value feed and industrial products. Last two quarters, we have recognized non-cash impairment reversals totaling $780 million associated with our phosphate operations, which is driven by improved market fundamentals and a more favorable view of phosphate margins. Now turning to the outlook. As mentioned in the opening, global grain stocks-to-use is projected to decline to the lowest level in more than 25 years. This would mark the sixth consecutive year that stocks have declined. Crop futures have moved higher in recent weeks and are indicative of multiyear strength in the market fundamentals, with corn futures trading above $5 per bushel out to December 2025. Respective crop margins are well above historical average levels, which provides an incentive for growers to increase acreage and push to maximize yields.
The weather has been favorable in North America, and we anticipate that the rapid pace of harvest will support a large fall ammonia application season and normal application rates of potash, phosphate, and crop protection products. Our retail fertilizer sales volumes in October were up from the previous year, which is a good early indicator of robust grower demand. Brazil's spring planting season is proceeding with favorable conditions, and soybean acreage is projected to increase by 3%-4%. We anticipate a similar increase in Safrinha corn acreage and strong input purchases over the next few months. We expect robust agricultural fundamentals will drive increased fertilizer consumption in 2023. Pent-up demand for potash will emerge as inventories are drawn down and prices stabilize. However, the current situation is unique in that global potash supply remains constrained.
Potash production and exports from Eastern Europe continue to be impacted by sanctions on Belarus and restrictions on Russia that are related to the war in Ukraine. For 2023, we forecast exports from Belarus to be down 40%-60% compared to 2021 levels, and Russian exports to be down 15%-30%. Global potash shipments are projected to be between 64-67 million tons in 2023, which is up from 2022, but still well below our unconstrained demand forecast of over 70 million tons. We expect increased demand in North America and Brazil following the destocking that occurred in the second half of 2022. Based on this supply and demand outlook, we anticipate nutrient sales volumes of approximately 15 million tons in 2023.
Global nitrogen supply remains tight, and benchmark prices are projected to remain strong through the fourth quarter and into next year. Despite a recent decline in European gas prices, more than one-third of Europe's ammonia production is curtailed, and European gas prices are expected to remain high and volatile through the winter. We also anticipate a tight North American nitrogen supply and demand balance due to record exports and lower import volumes in the second half of 2022. I will now turn it over to Pedro to review our guidance and assumptions and capital allocation plans for the remainder of the year.
Thanks, Ken. Starting with retail, our annual EBITDA guidance range increased to $2.15 billion-$2.25 billion, which is a record year for our retail business. The most significant factor impacting our guidance range is the extent to which we continue to have a wide open fall application season in North America. Our revised potash guidance assumes that spot prices stabilize around current levels and that we see limited restocking of supply chain in the fourth quarter. We have adjusted our potash production plans in the near term and have brought forward maintenance activities during this downtime that position us well for increased volumes in 2023. We narrowed our nitrogen guidance range as ammonia and urea benchmark prices have been generally in line with our previous forecast.
We anticipate a strong fall ammonia application season in North America but have lowered our nitrogen sales volume guidance to reflect the impact of recent gas curtailments in Trinidad. Cash from operating activities is projected at approximately $8 billion in 2022, which is down from our previous outlook, but still roughly double the operating cash generated in 2021. Ken mentioned we remain confident in the long-term outlook for the business and intend to invest $1.4 billion on high return strategic growth and sustainability initiatives in 2022. In retail, we have invested approximately $500 million this year on acquisitions to grow our network in core geographies and continue to make investments to enhance our proprietary products offerings and digital capabilities. We are enhancing our low-cost nitrogen network through greenfield debottleneck and decarbonization projects.
The nitrogen team has completed projects at three sites this year that are expected to reduce annual CO₂ equivalent emissions by more than 500,000 tons. We are advancing the front-end engineering work for our 1.2 million ton Geismar clean ammonia project and recently signed an agreement with thyssenkrupp Uhde to be the technology provider. This is a key milestone for the project and anticipate making a final investment decision in 2023. In potash, we continue to progress the ramp up of our low-cost potash production capability. Projected global supply and demand balance supports Nutrien's case for increased production as a valuable and low-cost option to close the projected supply gap. These projects come with a very low capital cost of $150-$200 per ton, and the investment is spread across multiple sites.
Therefore, we believe that there is low execution risk and asymmetric upside potential given the incremental margin opportunity and short expected payback period. Finally, on our plans for return, for returning capital. Last quarter, we announced our intention to return approximately $6 billion in capital to shareholders in 2022, including $5 billion in share repurchases. While some of these repurchases may now extend into the first quarter of next year due to lower forecast operating cash flows in 2022, we'll still intend on completing our existing 10% share repurchase program prior to its expiry in February 2023. As we target sustainable and growing dividends over time, the significant reduction in share count will be included in the decision criteria for future per share dividend increases. I'll now pass it back to Ken.
Thanks, Pedro. I would just make a few final comments. The longer term fundamentals for our business remain very strong, and the challenge of feeding a growing world has not abated. In fact, over this past quarter, we have seen further pressure on global food supplies that will need to be addressed over several growing seasons. In meeting with stakeholders over the past year, my optimism for the opportunity that's ahead for our business to serve the growing and evolving needs of our world has only strengthened. As our business evolves, so will our people, and I wanted to introduce a few new members of our executive leadership team that are on the call today. Chris Reynolds is our new Executive Vice President and President of Potash. Chris was previously leading our global sales organization and also served as Interim President of Potash since the start of the year.
He has been with Nutrien for over 18 years and is extremely well-positioned to lead our potash business. Trevor Williams has taken on the role of Interim President of Nitrogen and Phosphate. Trevor has been with Nutrien for over 11 years, most recently as our Senior Vice President of Nitrogen Operations. He has diverse global experience leading large chemical operations and strategic growth initiatives. In addition, Mark Thompson, who many of you have met in the past, is taking on the newly created role of Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer. Mark has been with Nutrien for over 11 years and will utilize his extensive experience working across all our business units to advance our global commercial strategy. With that introduction, we would now be happy to take your questions.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Should you have a question, please press the star followed by the one on your touchtone phone. You will hear three-tone prompt acknowledging your request, and your questions will be pulled in the order they are received. Should you wish to decline from the polling process, please press star followed by the two. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. One moment please for your first question. Your first question comes from Joel Jackson from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Hey, Ken. Interesting year has shaped up in potash. I mean, when you just made the decision to expand potash, it's an obvious reason why you were gonna do it, right? What's going on with some of your competitors and the restrictions and sanctions. You must have known in June that the market, the demand in the spring wasn't as good as thought, that inventory was gonna build, that the situation could possibly happen. You have to make a decision based on multiple years. While if Belarus, if BPC at Belaruskali start to have issues, I need to have capacity for the world and for the market. Can you talk about, you know, how maybe Nutrien got this wrong on understanding what demand should be this year and on what the right production would be for this year?
Was that more Russian tons leaked out than you thought? Was that demand elasticity at higher prices was worse than you thought? What will be your entering production rate for January 1st, 2023? Is that 15 million tons? Thank you.
Yeah. Good morning, Joel, and thank you for the question. Yes, you know, if we look at 2022 and what's happened in the market, it really, you know, is two things, and we can talk about North America and we can talk about Brazil. Starting with North America, you know, we had a strong fall application in the fall of 2021. Heading into this spring, looking with the backdrop of ag fundamentals, looking at a very strong 2022 for growers, and certainly all the incentives there to lay down the appropriate crop nutrients to maximize yields. We're in agriculture and of course, weather in the spring of this year, a late start to the planting season, which led to a compressed planting season.
At the end of the planting season, as we said, we saw prevent plant acres crop switching, and have talked about just fewer crop nutrients going to ground in the spring in North America, and therefore larger carryover volumes through the summer than we had anticipated. Now heading into the fall, you know, what we've seen is farmers again incentivized to lay down the appropriate crop nutrients. I mean, with just corn and wheat at 50% above the 10-year average and, you know, again, the backdrop of being very strong, we see farmers incentivized to lay down crop nutrients.
Over the summer and into the fall, the start of the application season here, farmers looking at their bins and seeing fertilizer in their bins and also looking at the potash price and holding off on those purchases until the last minute, until they have to purchase. In North America, again, as we've seen inventories coming down now, in fact, we are starting to see movement with Midwest pricing at about the $640 per short ton. In fact, again, you know, through this de-stocking period and now into the fall application season and getting ready for the spring, we're going to start to see the replenishment of those inventories. That was in North America. In Brazil, you know, interesting year as well because again, the Brazilian farmer's having a strong year.
What we saw in the first half of the year was imports coming into Brazil at 37% above the previous year. Really that was, you know, the Brazilian farmer and the Brazilian distributors looking to shore up volumes, knowing that there could be supply-side challenges with the sanctions on Russia and Belarus. We're able to get those volumes into the country prior to, really, those sanctions starting to take effect. Building those inventories so that the Brazilian farmers are prepared for their big spring planting season, which they're in the midst of now, but similar behavior. Of course, we saw through that big purchasing period, Brazilian prices, you know, fly up to over $1,000 a ton. Now, again, with their planting season underway, those inventories being drawn down.
The farmer again watching prices and reluctant to step into the market as prices come down and look only really going to step into the market when those inventories need to be replenished. In the case of Brazil, through this application season and looking forward to the Safrinha corn crop, those inventories again will need to be rebuilt. Those two markets for us are some of our biggest, largest export markets, so that, you know, we feel it when liquidity in terms of potash trade, and again, over the course of the summer, is constrained. Again, that's what we saw. Now, heading into 2023, again, we see a very strong backdrop for the ag fundamentals, and we see a very challenged supply situation.
Through 2022, the export levels out of Belarus and Russia played out, are playing out as essentially as we had expected, and that is somewhere around 50% of the volumes coming out of Belarus export constrained and 20% out of Russia. These are big numbers. Frankly, heading into 2023, we see a similar situation. We know that sanctions are in full effect, but also that mines in those parts of the world are having trouble sustaining that production, getting their hands on maintenance parts and those sorts of things. That, again, heading into 2023, we've been through a de-stocking period. Those inventories are going to need to be replenished, and need to be replenished in a market where the supply side continues to be constrained.
As those inventories are rebuilt in places like North America and Brazil, big export markets for us, again, we'll see that, feel that disproportionately. With respect to our decision to increase potash volumes, Joel, I would just say that our view has not changed. We had a lull in demand here in the third quarter, but again, the backdrop for the ag fundamentals remains strong. The supply side continues to be challenged. We see that continuing into 2023. We know that 60% of the new production that was going to come to the market over the next five years over and above Nutrien's production was going to be coming from Russia and Belarus.
We expect that new production will continue to be challenged and that we're maintaining our ramp-up schedule to be at 18 million tons by 2025 and have conviction around that. To your question about entering 2023, Joel, we've mentioned that we expect you know volumes and sales for Nutrien to be around that 15 million ton level. We'll, you know, get more refined on guidance as we head towards February. You know, again, with that restocking in 2023, we expect to have a strong year.
Your next question comes from Andrew Wong. I'm sorry. Andrew Wong, RBC Capital. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Good morning. I guess you could call me Wrong because of, we were all wrong on the quarter, I guess. Looking at potash sales this year, it'll be around 12.5 million tons based on guidance. Capacity is set to be, you know, 15 million, 16 million tons next year. There's a lot of moving parts right now on both supply and demand side, and I'd say also it's fair that we also have a lot less visibility on both. Does it make sense to kind of, for Nutrien to see sales and demand kind of catch up with capacity and just to see some more confirmation on the more positive view here before continuing to ramp up some more?
Thank you for the question, Andrew. What I'll say is that, you know, these investments that we make in our wrap-up capability and our production capability are incremental. We're not jumping from, you know, 14 million to 15 million to 18 million tons all in one leap. You know, we will be prudent with how we allocate capital in light of what we see going on in the market. Andrew, I do go back to and ground ourselves in the fundamentals. Again, to say that the backdrop for agriculture is strong. All we need to do is look at where ag commodities are today and where futures are trending at for the likes of corn, as I mentioned, even out to 2025 at above $5 a bushel.
Those are that strong pricing. Again, corn and wheat 50% above the ten-year average. We've got this strong backdrop, but then we know that we're in a supply constrained market. When we say 64 million-67 million tons in 2023, that's because it's a supply constrained market. An unconstrained view, you would say it's somewhere around 70 million tons, especially in an environment where inventories are being rebuilt. You know, for our part, we have been, I would say, prudent about expanding capacity, pacing it with the market. Looking at 2023, 2024, 2025, you know, we believe, we continue to believe these supply side challenges are real, and that there's going to be a home for our volumes in the market.
Your next question comes from Christopher Parkinson with Mizuho. Please go ahead.
Operator, we'll move to the next question, please.
Hello?
Chris?
Yeah, I'm here. Hello?
I can hear you.
You can hear me now? All right. Sorry, I'll ask it again. I was just asking, given just all the puts and takes and now that the dust has settled since the initial reactions to the Ukraine war and, you know, trade flows have adjusted on the potash side, we have a little bit of a better idea of what the Russians and Belarusians are capable of. There's been some volatility in nat gas prices on the, you know, nitrogen side. Can you just give us any additional framework on your specific way of thinking on a segment basis, as it pertains to your $9 billion normalized EBITDA estimate? Just any thought process would be very helpful. Thank you very much.
Yeah. I think what I'll do is just provide a few opening thoughts, and then I'll pass it over to our Chief Commercial Officer, Mark Thompson, to provide some color. You know, suffice it to say that given what we've seen with the conflict in Ukraine, the challenge that that's going to present over the medium term, both in terms of the energy complex in Europe and just challenged exports, crop nutrients out of Russia and Belarus, and then export restrictions in other parts of the world, that we've seen a structural shift in our industry that makes us think differently about what mid-cycle pricing and the price strip there looks like. Of course, we've talked about that in the past. That hasn't changed for us.
We continue to believe that we are experiencing a structural shift in our industry. Mark, I'll pass it over to you to provide some more color.
Yeah, thank you, Ken. Morning, Chris. Look, so just to reiterate what Ken had said, I mean, fundamentally, we don't see any different view around the projection for normalized mid-cycle earnings in and around that $9 billion range for EBITDA. I think there's two components to that. One is on the volume side. When we look at potash for our business, again, I think Ken has stated very clearly here this morning that we continue to see the market needing the additional tons from Nutrien and potash that will come in the years to follow. We see that firmly intact.
From a pricing standpoint, as Ken has said, there's a variety of fundamental factors here, from a supply-demand standpoint that we believe will result in structural changes in these markets, that'll ultimately support that view that leads to that $9 billion level of normalized earnings. When we look at potash specifically, and double click on the situation in Belarus and Russia, Ken has said, ultimately 2022 from a supply constraint standpoint as a result of the conflict in Ukraine has played out much the way we've said. We see that continuing in 2023 in much the same way. Ultimately, the same surge of imports that we saw in the first half of 2022, we don't believe will be possible in 2023 as the constraints take full effect.
On a nitrogen standpoint, again, despite some warmer weather here we've seen over the past month or so, the forward strip for TTF gas and European gas prices would indicate again that Europe will be the high cost producer in these markets. That again is a result of the conflict in Ukraine and reduced energy supply from Russia that we see continuing for the foreseeable future. Those are the major factors that we're supporting our outlook and that view of structural change in these markets, and we're very confident in that view as we move forward.
Your next question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Thanks. I wanted to follow up on that, Jason. In terms of the nitrogen price and what you think the price setting mechanism is these days and what you think it might be in 2023. There's a lot of debate, as I'm sure you're aware, in the investment community about that European TTF price and those European production costs and whether those should actually be setting a floor for nitrogen prices, or not. I personally can't tell over the past three or four or five months what exactly has been setting the price. Maybe you could just give us your thoughts.
Great. Thanks, Vincent, for the question. I'll pass that one over to Jason Newton, our Chief Economist, and talk about the moving parts there. Jason?
Yeah, good morning, Vincent. I think it depends a little bit when you look at marginal cost on the product and the time of year. We've just come through the third quarter, which we know is a seasonal low point in terms of global demand. As we look at where European production costs were in that quarter, obviously they're well above where prices were and saw over 50% of the ammonia capacity idled in Europe at that time. I think as we look on a long-term sustained basis, we need to at least have prices in line with where marginal costs are and for ammonia and especially for ammonia and for nitrates that's in Europe at the moment.
As we get into 2023, that production that was lost in Q3 of 2022, and still there's a third of the ammonia capacity offline today, that's gone. We expect to get into more of a demand-driven environment, in which case, it's really that demand that's gonna drive pricing and move above where marginal cost is, as we know we're at near full operating rates globally, and we expect that to continue over the medium term given the production that's on stream. As we get into a tight supply/demand environment, realistically, the cost curve is less important than it has been in the low demand period of time.
Your next question comes from Jacob Bout with CIBC. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Historically, we used to talk about the balance of pricing versus new supply in the potash industry. In your view, what is the sweet spot on pricing? How focused are you on market share? What incentivized buyers to step in? I know you talked about inventories in the U.S., but what does that look like in, you know, Brazil, India, China? Is it just primarily price?
Great. Thank you, Jacob, for the question. You know, as we approach the market, we have built our customer base over decades now. We look at it as meeting the key needs of our customers, and our customers continue to grow, and we grow along with them. You know, in terms of pricing today and the sweet spot for pricing, I mean, ultimately, the health of the farmer is at the center of everything that we do. Affordable crop nutrients, that among the backdrop of ag fundamentals that provide the incentives for producers to provide that high-quality potash, which we do, I mean, for us, that's kind of the sweet spot on crop nutrient pricing.
Obviously, with some of the supply side challenges that we've seen in the market, and we can really go across the crop nutrients, you know, we've seen the volatility over the course of 2020 to 2022 that's been really quite dramatic. Again, that's just based on the supply and demand fundamentals. You know, as we look forward now and again, new supply that's coming to the market, of course, over the next five years, the majority of that is going to be our supply. Again, given some of the challenges that we see with new supply that was supposed to come to the market, out of Belarus and Russia. Yeah, for our part, you know, that's the way we think about it.
You know, today, I would say that what's incented farmers to come into the market is, and coming into the market is really just the backdrop in ag fundamentals. Again, the incentives are there, Jacob, to maximize yields, therefore apply the appropriate crop nutrients. As we've gone through this de-stocking period, as I say, the incentives will be there for the farmer to restock and get ready for what will be a big Safrinha season in Brazil and a big planting season in the northern hemisphere. The incentives are there and really that will be causing farmers and distributors to step into the market.
Your next question comes from Ben Isaacson with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much, and good morning, everybody. Question on potash prices and what it means for the retail business. When I look back at the crop nutrient segment of retail, it looks like it generally earns about $1 billion a year of gross profit. That went up to about $1.5 billion last year and, you know, getting close to $2 billion this year. Your EBITDA, however, your guidance is for around $2 billion, a little bit north of $2 billion this year and around $2 billion in 2025. Now that potash prices have retreated, how do you expect the impact of that to hit retail EBITDA as crop nutrient gross profit goes down?
I mean, should we be thinking about 1.6, 1.7 next year, something like that? Thank you.
Great. Well, thank you for the question, Ben, and I'll pass that one over to Jeff Tarsi.
Yeah. Good morning, Ben. Look, margins have been very attractive, obviously in that nutrient shelf for us in retail, both in 2021 and 2022. Right now, as Ken mentioned just a little bit earlier, we're seeing a lot of momentum this fall as well. Crops come out early, growers are planning for 2023, and our margins are still at a very attractive rate. I think we talked about this. At some point in time, we'll see margins return to a more historical basis. But even when I look at it from an historical basis, it'll be a step up from what we would've seen in 2020 and such like that. Again, the returns for the growers are strong. They still see, you know, a tremendous amount of value.
You know, when we talk about these things, again, it's a. You know, these decisions are becoming science-based decisions, and growers are putting a lot of input value into an acre of ground, and they're gonna give that crop, whatever it is, every opportunity to maximize from a yield standpoint. So again, I think we, you know, we'll see margins stay strong through the end of 2022. As we get into 2023, we'll reset ourselves, 'cause I think we'll be in a good position from an inventory standpoint. Our inventories will be low if we have the type of fall it looks like we're starting with. And we'll return to something that's a bit more historical, but again, a step up from what we saw in 2020.
Your next question comes from John Roberts with Credit Suisse. Go ahead.
Thank you. This is Edlain Rodriguez on behalf of John. Speaking of the inventory destocking that's going on right now, like, how long do you think this will continue? With the increased production from Nutrien and more products coming out of Eastern Europe next year, any concerns that could put further pressure on potash prices?
Okay. Well, thank you for the question. I'll pass that one over to Mark.
Yeah, good morning. Thanks for the question. I think just to reiterate, some of Ken's comments, ultimately, we do see the market going through a period of inventory destocking currently. I think if we look at key markets for us, again, in North America, we are seeing movement of product in North America today and seeing good engagement from growers. That product is going straight to ground, and we're not seeing a lot of inventory stocking at this point, and we would expect that to begin in earnest as we enter 2023. In Brazil, also as Ken mentioned, we are beginning to see the destocking process take place.
I think importantly, when we step back and look at markets like Brazil and look globally at the potash market, we believe that as we exit 2022, we'll be at inventory levels that are at least the same or perhaps even lower than where we entered 2022. That sets up in combination with a demand picture that's very strong, in terms of, attractive crop commodity prices for growers, to really pick up again on the pause that we saw in the second half of the year and continue that momentum. I think the fundamental factor, again, here is the fact that in the first half of 2022, we saw a surge of product out of the former Soviet Union in anticipation of sanctions and physical disruptions.
That product found its way into global markets, including Brazil, where imports were up significantly in the first half of the year. Based on what we see today in terms of the continuation of the conflict in Ukraine, the expectation that exports from Belarus remain down about 50% and exports from Russia remain down 20%-25% as we head into next year, that same type of supply situation and import situation in markets like Brazil just will not be possible as we enter 2023. We believe that the market will see the tightness in supply-demand in a way that's not yet been seen.
Combined with our view on demand, we believe again that the nutrient volumes that we've talked about in terms of our ability to flex up production are going to be needed, and that inventories are destocking as we speak, and we'll begin to see that as we enter 2023.
Your next question comes from Steve Byrne with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Yes. I'd like to drill into potash a little bit more. The shipments down into the U.S. Corn Belt just plunged in the quarter. Were they effectively zero in September? Was that what was unexpected by you? Is the retail business of yours characterizing, you know, competitor inventory levels in that retail channel as now high, normal or are they low now? Are you seeing application rates that are actually going on the ground now normal, or is there a potential for some to actually be above normal? Sorry, one more on potash, and that is, Ken, you ran Canpotex in the past. I'm sure they would listen to your view now. Looking ahead at the 2023 contract, you got a domestic price in China that's, you know, almost got a four in the front.
you yet have this view that the 2023 potash market's gonna be supply constrained. Would it be your guidance to Canpotex.
To hold off on setting a contract until this recovery and demand is actually underway rather than, you know, potentially near-term?
Great. Thank you for the question, Steve. Yeah. There's quite a bit there. Maybe I'll start with, again, just what we saw in North America as it relates to sort of the compressed spring and then carry over volumes. I'll hand it to Jeff Tarsi just to talk about what we're seeing in the retail space, and then I'll come back on the Canpotex piece. Yeah, Steve, just to reiterate, we will say that carryover volumes from the spring season in North America were larger than we had anticipated. You know, we announced our summer fill program in August, at the beginning of August there. As we look to place volumes, again, farmers were holding off with the inventories that had been carried over.
again, not wanting to catch a falling knife on price, watching prices soften, just buying at the last minute. again, the application season that we're seeing in North America, Jeff can talk more about that, you know, we'd call it a normal application season so that those inventories have been drawn down. we do see engagement in the market at this sort of $640 per short ton Midwest pricing. I think the short answer is, Steve, yes, those carryover volumes were larger than anticipated. We call it a lull in the market, just given buyer behavior and buyer sentiments, and that restocking now is gonna have to take place.
Jeff, I'll pass it to you just to talk a little bit about what we're seeing on the ground in retail, and then I'll come back on the 2023 contract.
Yeah. Good morning, Steve. Look, we talked quite a bit about, you know, the fall of 2021, but I always like to remind people we had two really big falls. 2020 and 2021 were big falls. Then when we got into the spring this year and got into a real compressed market, a lot of growers just decided to hook to the planters and plant versus put some P product down for the spring. You know, from a pure retail perspective, we came out of the spring. I wouldn't say with a big overweight position on potash. We carried a little bit more than we probably planned to carry, but we also layered some more product in as well this for this fall.
Calling around yesterday, you know, we're starting to run through that product now and going back out into the market with Nutrien now for product. When I look at application rates and as I call and talk around, nobody's cutting back on application rates. I made this remark a bit earlier. These are science-based decisions. I was way at Waypoint Analytical last week, which is our soil testing business, and over three days last week, they had record soil testing that was coming in. We're out doing soil testing. You know, we're looking at what was removed from the crop this year and looking at areas that we expected the crop to be good. It was as good, if not a little bit better than.
There were some areas that were weak, but removal was very strong, and these growers are gonna replenish the soil with the nutrients they need. If I'm looking ahead to next year and looking in our early seed book, it certainly appears that corn acreage is gonna be up next year. We would expect our volumes in 2023 to return to where they were in 2021.
Thank you, Jeff. Steve, just back to your question on Canpotex and contract settlements in the contract markets. Yes, it is true that the domestic price in China has softened, but the domestic price in China does not dictate the settlement level that a supplier. By the way, you know, the suppliers that can negotiate a meaningful quantity under the contract is maybe just very few and far between. In fact, we're probably talking about, you know, Canpotex and maybe just one or two other suppliers. That negotiation is going to be based on what we are seeing in the global market, and this is a supply and demand-driven market.
You will not find, whether it's a spot market in Brazil, as we've said in North America, anywhere in the world, that is below the current contract price of $590 per ton. In fact, for standard grade products in Southeast Asia, we're certainly well above that. You know, we look at inventory levels in those parts of the world. We know that India is for all intents out of potash and is going to have to step in and for their season, renewal contracting get volume into the country, and that we expect that before China, before their planting, spring planting season, they'll have to do the same. Again, you know, Canpotex will be looking at where volumes are trading at internationally and certainly for standard grade markets, and we'll be negotiating accordingly.
Your next question comes from Jeffrey Zekauskas with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Thanks very much. Sort of a two-part question. In your potash forecasts for India for 2023, you know, you're way below where you were in or where demand was in 2019 and 2020. Why is that? Is that a function of Belarusian and Russian shipments or is it something else? In your ag solutions business, what is it that you can do about these inflationary costs that are eating away at your margin?
Thank you for the questions, Jeff. We'll start with Jason Newton on what we're forecasting for India as it relates to potash volume. Over to Jeff Tarsi for the discussion of the inflationary pressures in our retail business.
Yeah, good morning, Jeff. The major challenge with India is the regulatory control within the domestic market and the profitability from both an importer standpoint, given where the nutrient-based subsidy has been relative to the domestic maximum retail price. In addition to the fact that maximum retail prices have increased year-over-year, which has had a negative impact on grower demand. The policy environment within India, when we're in a high global pricing environment, makes import affordability and grower economics a challenge. That's why we've seen that demand weaken in 2022. We'd expect it to grow in 2023, but still remain well below, as you said, where it was back in 2020.
From an agronomic perspective, optimal rates would be two to three times what they were this year. In a different policy environment, we'd expect strong growth in that market.
Yeah, the second part of that as it relates to inflation. Obviously, we see inflation like any industry does from that standpoint. I also think if you look through the third quarter and what we've done from a Cash Operating Coverage Ratio, we've improved 55 from 59. We're always focused on the expense side of our business. You know, obviously, fuel is up this year, and we were very strategic in moving our application rates up or the rates that we charge to apply chemistry and nutrients as we go into that market. I think we've done a fair job of trying to keep up with that as it goes forward. You know, our margin structure, whether it's around crop protection, seed, or fertilizer, was very attractive this year.
I think our margins on seed were up 60 basis points through the third quarter. On crop protection chemistry, our upfront margins were up, you know, roughly 300 basis points from that standpoint. We've worked hard to try to pass some of the costs through on that side of it, and I think our results show today that we've done a pretty good job of that. We'll constantly stay, you know, attuned to that. Obviously, people are a big cost in our business today, and we're constantly scrubbing that side of the business to control expenses no matter what the environment that we're in.
Your next question comes from P.J. Juvekar from Citi. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hi, good morning. A question on seeds. You know, what are your expectations on seed pricing based on the price cards that have been put out earlier this year? And then what is the market share of Dyna-Gro? And then one large U.S.-based seed company has been saying that they have been gaining share for seeds in the retail channel. I was wondering if you had any comments on that.
Great. Thank you, P.J. I'll pass that over to Jeff Tarsi.
Yeah. Seed's always a competitive arena. We just kicked off our 2023 seed selling season. We start that kind of as we go into the third quarter and through the fourth quarter on it. If I look at it from a price book standpoint, I'd probably characterize it as prices will be up from mid to upper single digits for the 2023 season. Those price books are out, and it's kinda gonna lay somewhere in that range from a, let's say from a 5%-8% price increase, depending on the supplier and the hybrid that's associated with it. Look, our market share in seed this year across everything was up 20 basis points.
Look, I'm pleased with that because from the standpoint, we had a couple areas that were hit with some really tough weather, where we have a substantial share of seed business, particularly the Texas market. We had crop shift as well, you know, from corn back to soybeans in some areas, again, where we have very large market share. From the Dyna-Gro perspective, we had a really good year. We saw significant share increases on cotton, rice, and soybeans for the 2022 season. Our Dyna-Gro brand remains very strong, as well as our Proven brand in Canada associated with canola.
Your next question comes from Steve Hansen with Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. Just sticking to the Potash theme. I can respect the decision to hold the line on the expansion strategy, given the backdrop you described. Can you just remind us how the incremental capital outlays will play out here as we contemplate the, you know, the 1 million tons a year effectively over the next three years? Or are you making those investments predominantly up front today for all 3 million tons, or will it come in incremental chunks as those capacity tranches come through?
Yeah, no. Great question, Steve. Thank you for that. It's a little bit of both. We're ordering some long lead line items, but then staging capital as well. I'll pass it over to Chris Reynolds, our President of Potash.
Yeah. Good morning, Steve. Thanks for the question. We are looking to stage that capital. To date, we've committed about $200 million of that $580 million investment to reach 18 million tons of productive capacity by 2025. It's gonna be staged, but as Ken said, we have a lot of that $200 million we've committed already is to long lead items. As you can imagine, getting our place in queue with certain shops to make sure we can secure that equipment, given some supply chain challenges, which actually remarkably haven't been too bad to date. We still feel very good about this investment. As Ken and Pedro have mentioned, we take a long-term view when making these investments.
Despite the pause in demand we saw in Q3, believe strongly that the market and the world is gonna need that incremental volume. Really making these investments allows Nutrien the opportunity to be in a position to meet that demand going forward. Again, temporary pause in demand we saw in Q3, not derailing our conviction around this investment.
Your next question comes from Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Yes, thank you. Good morning, everyone. Maybe continuing in potash. Really two parts. One, wanted to just get your sense on inventories in Southeast Asia. You talked about India being kinda pretty dry on the inventory side, but there are also discussions about cutting subsidies. Just how do we get to up imports in next year if the affordability is gonna get potentially worse?
I wanna just think about maybe the connection between the wholesale and potash business and retail, and just if we kinda reflect on how this year has progressed, where it would seem like there might have been differing signals in terms of how the retail business was acting in terms of positioning its own inventory and buying versus how the wholesale business was approaching the domestic market. What lessons are there to be gleaned from that as you've kinda reflected internally on where the forecasting this year was off internally? Thanks.
Well, we'll start with thank you for the question, Adam. We'll start with Jason on just inventories in Southeast Asia, and then we'll move over to Jeff Tarsi just to talk about, you know, again, what we're seeing in retail and how it relates to our wholesale business.
Good morning, Adam. We don't have great data in terms of the absolute number, volume of inventories in Southeast Asia, but we do know that they drew down on inventories to start the calendar year, which is one of the reasons why the shipments to that region are down. We know that that market's lagged the rest of the world, and the demand has remained relatively firm in the second half. As we look toward 2023, we've seen palm oil prices come back up and the veg oil market is certainly strengthened, which improves the economic outlook in that region. We'd expect, just given the shipments and where we see consumption in that region, that the inventories will be down year-over-year.
Just to, I think, reiterate what we've talked about already with India, the inventories there are at extremely low levels. While we don't see a huge increase in consumption, just the fact that inventories are so low is supportive of an increase in shipments to that region in 2023.
Yeah. I'll add on the from the retail perspective of it, and again, I don't wanna sound like a broken record, but you know, we got into the spring and obviously nobody can predict a late compressed spring. We saw growers you know again more incentivized wanting to put a planter in the field. Some of them knew because of the two big falls that they had that they had some product they could mine out of the soil. A lot of people were working hand to mouth from that standpoint. Look, we've seen this thing back reengage as the fall has come in. You know, we started this season, we were three weeks and you know it's something important to remember here.
We started a year about three weeks behind from a cropping standpoint. The way the fall ended up and the way the summer ended and came into fall with a lot of hot, dry weather, this crop progressed really fast. Now if you look at where we are on harvest, we're back ahead of the five-year average. I would've, you know, if I would've been a betting man earlier in the year, I wouldn't have bet on that. Because of that, we've got a really good open market for the fall. We've talked a lot about P and K, but we've got a really high demand right now for nitrogen as well. Our NH3 book in Canada has been extremely strong.
Our book for the U.S. market is extremely strong as well. As long as this fall is open now, I fully expect a lot of product to hit the ground between now and the end of the year.
There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Holzman, I turn the call back over to you.
Thank you for joining us today. The investor relations team is available for any follow-up calls. Have a good day.
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