OR Royalties Inc. (TSX:OR)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2022

Feb 24, 2023

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Osisko Gold Royalties Q4 2022 Result Conference Call. After the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. Please note that this call is being recorded today, February 24th, 2023 at 10:00 A.M. Eastern Time. Today on the call, we have Mr. Sandeep Singh, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Mr. Frédéric Ruel, Chief Financial Officer and Vice President, Finance. I would now like to turn the meeting over to our host for today's call, Mr. Sandeep Singh.

Sandeep Singh
President and CEO, Osisko Gold Royalties

Thanks very much, Joelle. Thanks to everyone online with us this morning. I look forward to walking you through what was a very exciting quarter and a very exciting year for us in 2022. As I do, I will be referring to a presentation that's on our website, if you haven't picked it up already, on the main page, just on the left-hand side. If you hit Q4 in 2022 results, it'll take you to it. I'll be referring to page numbers as I go along, obviously making some forward-looking statements, urge you to review that disclaimer on slide 2. Looking at slide 3 to start, as I said, 2022 was a very important, I'd say, frankly, pivotal year for us.

We made significant strides on a number of fronts, many of them listed on this, on this page. If we start with the simplification, the ongoing simplification of our business, you know, 2022, in particular the third quarter, took a massive leap forward with the deconsolidation of our financials with Osisko Development Corp. You know, the, it was just an accounting issue, but it was a meaningful one of kind of combining a company that generates cash flow all day long and one that is advancing its projects and investing in future growth. It didn't leave a recognizable entity, so happy to have that situation behind us. In terms of the portfolio of assets, our asset base continues to strengthen.

We had 3 consecutive record quarters on most of the things that matter to us from a royalty company perspective. We'll talk about what the outlook looks for, looks like for us, as we move forward. We also reset the balance sheet in spring of last year. I think we reset the balance sheet for our next wave of growth and de-levered at the right time. We continued our consistent trend of returning capital to shareholders, in aggregate CAD 63 million Canadian return to shareholders last year. Really almost exactly two-thirds of that via dividends and a third of it via our buyback program.

We'll show you a slide later on, but over the last five years, we've consistently done that, essentially returned a third of revenues or a third of every dollar of derived from the announced delivered to us back to shareholders, through a combination of dividends and then some. We think that's, sets us, you know, a pretty select company. We continue to have a tremendous amount of free upside and optionality playing out in our portfolio. Again, to the presentation, we'll touch on a few examples of that. We look forward to being able to tally the amount of work that our partners did in 2022 and share that with you. Certainly we're seeing the impact of that work, kind of all around us.

With respect to our largest asset, our flagship asset at Malartic, the consolidation that, the legal is currently underway, very close to completing in terms of buying the second half of that asset, is a very important catalyst, one that we'll spend some time on talking about today. You know, I think even last week in terms of their release, and some of the commentary that they're guiding towards in terms of what the synergies can be with them now owning 100% of Malartic, what they mean for us, is quite impressive. As we've talked about a number of times, 2022, we didn't really see the benefit of some pretty important step changes at assets like Mantos and Eagle.

We do expect we'll start to see the benefit of that in 2023. Those aren't the only assets that we have that are undergoing, you know, either material ramp-ups or expansions over the next few years. Island falls into that category. Lamaque falls into that category. There's just an awful lot of good work being done on our producing asset base, lengthening it and growing it, which underpins, I think, this company for a long time. To that, there's an exceptional amount of growth. 2022 saw a 12% increase over our GEO delivered to us over the year before.

We put out our guidance, which shows a meaningful uptick again this year and really a sustained level of growth for quite a long time. With the existing asset portfolio, in 2022, we did not just four larger transactions or a few smaller ones sliced in, but we were very happy with the manner in which we were able to allocate capital in 2022. Just finishing on that growth box, if you will. I think, you know, the growth for us is very, you know, multi-layered, I would say. It's, again, those existing producing assets that are getting stronger. It's new assets that are coming into the mix for the rest of the decade.

It's that optionality that I talked about, of our portfolio, highlighting some pretty hidden gems. It's the external growth, all of which I think is working well for us. I won't spend some more time on slide four. That's just a reset. We love showing that slide. We'll do it every chance we get because I think it's important. Almost alone, it kind of tells the story of Osisko in terms of commodity focus, obviously geographic focus, partner quality, asset quality. In the top right-hand side, we've taken the step of just highlighting again some of those assets, core assets to us. Many of them are steady state and continue to do a good job.

Then an additional significant chunk, some of the biggest ones are going through step change improvements. On slide 5, again, these are names we've talked about in terms of that recent acquisition story for us in 2022. I won't go through the specific names, maybe we can certainly come back to them later. I will remind everyone that all four of these, in fact even the smaller ones that we did as well, were all bilateral, underscore all. Not a single process on that list. I think they were all fair transactions for us and our partners. Good jurisdictions, good operators, partners, big upside in all. I frankly think, you know, significantly better than better returns than we've seen in pockets of the sector for the last couple of years.

Frankly, that's what it takes for us to transact, all of those, all of the above. If we don't see that, we'll be very patient, extremely patient, and we'll continue to return capital to our shareholders. If we do see it, I think we've shown the conviction to follow through on things that we believe in. Moving to slide 6. Again, I think we have to spend a bit of time, given the importance and given the kind of recent story that continues to strengthen. I've said this before, I mean it, you know, literally every time we hear from our partner here at Agnico, the story is getting better.

Obviously, it's an important asset, even if it was just what it was kind of put on paper as a couple of years ago, kind of transitioning to 500,000-600,000 ounces a year from the underground. That's the plan. That's how most people currently think about it. I would wager that's how most people currently model it from an analyst perspective. That in itself is great. That too, I would remind you, is only based on half of the current 15 million ounces that are available underground. 2022 saw an important year in terms of infill drilling, and that's on the next slide. If you wanna jump ahead, basically just over 6 million ounces moved into the in aggregate in the M&I category. Pretty material lift of inferred into M&I.

The overall resource stayed the same, and I think, or largely the same from the drilling in 2022. Happy to see the infill drilling improve the M&I. Overall, if you look at this last bullet, the extension drilling that they've done has been very productive, with the boundaries of this deposit, if you will, growing in both directions, to the east by 1.7 km, to the west by 500 meters. Quite a big footprint that currently isn't in any kind of category in terms of resources.

I think certainly my expectation, our expectation is that after another similar year of drilling, kind of a third in a row, 164,000 meters envisaged in 2023, not only will we see that continued trend of category improvement, but also hopefully that'll be the year where we see an uptick with enough infill drilling or enough tight, a tight enough spacing in that footprint to add more ounces. I think that, if you read the release from Agnico last week, that certainly seems to be what they're pointing to over the course of 2023. That is a phenomenal story.

If you look at the next slide 7, you know, you turn your attention to the spare 40,000 tons of per day of capacity in the mill that will be in place by 2028 or available by 2028. We're certainly looking forward. I'm looking forward to sitting down with our friends at Agnico next week to make sense of everything they said in their Thursday afternoon release, because frankly, it was a bit head spinning, but overall, all of it was extremely positive for us.

I'm sure you folks would, I assume you would like to get some more details on that plan, but I think it's, you know, the upshot of it is, you know, the Canadian largest mill with 40,000 tons roughly of spare capacity later in the decade is the center of gravity for the Abitibi. I think what's what the next leg of that, and that's kind of forgiven, I would imagine most people have in their minds.

When you take into account the rail line that runs to the mill, basically to the property, all through all these assets that you see on the bottom of seven , slide 7 in the Abitibi on the Ontario and Quebec side, you know, that significantly, obviously, based on the commentary, increases the area of influence, if you will, or the catchment area that mill can benefit from.

to have a scenario where our partner is talking about potentially 500,000 ounces of annual regional gold coming into that mill is a huge benefit to us, not just because of our CAD 0.40 to ton mill royalty, but also because many of the names that they mention, we also have 2% royalties on whether it's Upper Beaver, which to think could go east, as opposed to west to Macassa. That just shows you that center of gravity, that Canadian Malartic will become once it has spare capacity or whether it's talking about things like Upper Canada, obviously AK is already in the mix at Macassa. Essentially most things, not all, but most things that were discussed in that in that update have significantly important implications for us.

We look forward to getting maybe not immediately, but over the span of this year, or some period of time, more clarity on what that looks like. It only could mean positive versus, I think the way most of you on the line from the analyst community certainly, look at us and value us, and I would imagine the same is true on the investor side. that was without really even talking a whole lot about additional mill feeds from Canadian Malartic itself, from the Odyssey project itself. Again, 20 years, give or take, 2 decades of production based on half of the underground resources. Most of that is now in the M&I category, I would imagine, but not inferred anymore.

Not only will drill spacing, I think, add more mine life, I think the extension drilling will add mine life. It's our assessment, my belief that before too long it will also add throughput. That, you know, obviously it's preferential for us to see our partners putting through up to 5% MSR material through that mill as opposed to even 2% or just benefiting from the mill royalty. That is tremendous news flow for us. It's recent, you know, dates back to Thursday, I think it was. I think more visibility on that, more understanding of all that will only strengthen the story. On slide 8, I'll speed up here a little bit to get to the actual financials.

On slide eight, I think we've talked about already, Mantos maybe one layer deeper. You know, we do expect a significant uplift for Mantos this year with that deferral from 2022 into 2023. Not a big deal, but we're certainly happy and looking forward to seeing those GEOs come through. I think Q1 will still be a little bit volatile, or at least we're assuming it will. Thereafter, we expect to see deliveries steadily pick up. That's good news. Then the commentary around the next expansion and the study that will come out in H2 of this year, again, I think feels very, very positive. We'll wait for our partners at Capstone to make that determination.

Everything we're seeing and hearing, I'm sure the same is true for you, bodes well. With respect to Eagle, you know, we saw collectively with us and them at upper 2022, we were all expecting them to take a step forward. It was turned into a step sideways, and back a little bit, if you will. The guidance for 2023 is positive again. The study that they put out and that trend to get to essentially 200,000 ounces, which is what their new mine plan press release, not report, the new mine plan press release today, highlights or depicts, I think is still a very positive place to end up. They need to do the work to get there.

At first glance, that study looks positive. A little bit higher costs for them obviously, but we were pleased to see that the total ounces, in fact a little bit higher and the average production, you know, still in that 200,000 ounce range that they've talked about. Project 250 probably, discussion for another day at best, but I think even ending up at 200 steady state is a win right now and is a step change improvement for us. We look forward to them making progress on that. With respect to Éléonore at Newmont, again, just last night, I think it was, overnight or yesterday morning, you know, Newmont came out with their numbers.

We were quite pleased in terms of the commentary around increased productivity, increased flexibility. 2022 saw 250,000 ounces produced and to be pointing to 265-295 for those reasons, I think is good news. We'll see how that flows into the year. Slide 9, again, good things happening across the portfolio, whether it's the, you know, the ongoing expansion work at Island that will fully kick in by 2026 and in time will mean, you know, current production being between a 120,000-135,000 range, I believe it was, to more than doubling.

Also, more of that, currently none of that production comes from the 2% to 3% royalty ground. In time, more will. That, not only the expansion but the transition onto our better royalty grounds will be a massive benefit to us. In 2022, we saw a little bit of a dip from Lamaque and their guidance for 2023 showed the opposite, a significant improvement. Good news happening for us on those assets as well. We're spending some time on 10, slide 10. You know, it says, I know this is more, it says entering an important phase of growth. I think we've entered it.

You know, I think we've seen now a step change that hopefully should maintain and strengthen in terms of how many GEOs we're getting on a quarterly and annual basis. 12% growth last year without our core assets kind of hitting their full stride. Guidance this year of 95,000-105,000 ounces. That includes growth from our existing asset base. It also includes the assumption that the CSA transaction will close here in the very near term, at least the silver component. That's the only component of that deal that's certain, if you will, and has a February 1st effective date, 11 months of silver from CSA.

We haven't factored in either into the guidance or the outlook, the copper stream potential, because we don't know how much, if any, of that will come in. Certainly, we're optimistic that we'll be getting a fair chunk of it. Until we know what that looks like, we'll keep it out of the guidance. Then an outlook for five years from now in calendar year 2027 of between 130,000 and 140,000 ounces. Again, that's a sustained level of growth on assets that we have. There has been, I think it's obvious, and it happens in a portfolio, some slippage for sure. I'll point to permitting at San Antonio.

We had been talking about seeing permits San Antonio in 2023, sorry, in maybe it's early at the end of 2022. Obviously, very few people, if any, are getting permits out of Mexico right now. We still hope that that will be something that can move forward this year, maybe have to wait till an election in 2024, but we still have plenty and still see plenty of time for a catch-up, as that is a fairly simple or simpler project from mining perspective. Caught in that five-year time horizon for sure is our expectation right now. Similarly on Back Forty, probably a slippage of a year.

That one I think we saw coming in in 2026, maybe it comes in in 2027, but the slippage had to do with delays in feasibility study, and then they'll have to get re-permitted. Some slippage, but that's the beauty of a portfolio as deep as ours, to drive the things that are coming on. Important to point out as well that in that 2027 year, we do see Renard, based on the current plan, petering out, the diamond stream there, although there are resources currently in place, and a healthier entity that could potentially extend that. That's to be determined. For the time being, we just assume that it's not the case to be cautious on that asset. Obviously, we always want to be cautious on that asset because the history of it.

You know, five years is a long time, and on the current trajectory, this is certainly an expectation that things can potentially extend based on resources that currently exist. If it doesn't, then that coming out of that bar can be replaced by a sliver of production, I would emphasize a sliver, based on of some of the things that are in that optionality category. You know, any small, any combination or subset of initial production from Hermosa or Marimaca or West Kenya or even Pine Point, you know, you take any couple of those and that can make up the difference. Really pleased with the way things are shaping up. Nothing in the mining sector is a straight line, but very happy with the progress that our partners are making.

Again, when I remind you about, you know, what this company looks like, in terms of existing producing assets getting stronger with the one exception of a short-life asset in Renard. Otherwise all our core assets really have a long runway in front of them, and they're getting bigger, not smaller, many of them. The new assets that are coming on, strengthening us as each one comes on to the portfolio. Very pleased with this growth trajectory, that growth phase in great jurisdictions, and we'll look to supplement it as things progress. I will point out, it is on this just 'cause I was asked 2 questions, I wasn't gonna do it otherwise, but we're also doing good work.

We're seeing good work progress on Amulsar in Armenia. We try not to talk about it until there's an ultimate end game there. I think everyone realizes that we've been trying to reactivate that stream. It's a really important asset. It comes in north of 200,000 ounces a year, and it was about 70% complete 2 years ago. Yesterday the folks that picked it up would have highlighted that would notice that the government of Armenia had a trilateral agreement signed with the company as well as the Eurasian Development Bank for a $150 million debt piece into the asset, which goes a long way towards fully funding the rest of the construction. Still need the right entity to come in there and finish that for us.

A great step and the government squarely behind the asset, making a lot of positive commentary around it and the need for it to move forward. I would call that progress. I would call that significant progress, we're not factoring that into any of our numbers until it's a done deal and really only mentioning it because I was asked. From start to finish, you know, to once that actually moves forward, that's probably an 18-month to 24 at most rebuild or completion of build cycle. Hopefully that's something that is hitting this 5-year outlook sooner than later.

On the next few slides, we've taken a different approach at kind of highlighting some of the catalysts in our portfolio, somewhat chronologically ordered, somewhat not, all of the things that are happening in the next, you know, year plus, you know, 2023, 2024. I talked about the first four, so I won't talk about them again on this page. Underscore the fact that these are real assets, you know, emphasis on the real. These are real catalysts. We're not stretching to come up with good news about our portfolio. Even if you took a few of these stack patterns alone, they would be impactful to our company. If you take them in aggregate, it's an embarrassment of riches.

You know, as we're talking about the progress at Windfall, obviously with the feasibility, the power deal with the Cree, you know, this is an asset that has a ramp down somewhere well below 600 meters. It's got 15 rigs on it. 13+ km of underground development. That is a phenomenal story for us that continues to take shape. We're bullish on zinc. I personally am bullish on zinc, at least the right assets, and I think we have two of them in Hermosa. We look forward to the FID decision mid-year. That's an important asset for us.

At Francisco Metals, we were very pleased to see Appian, private equity group out of London, step in and essentially make a $100 million investment into that project and company over the next 4 years to earn up to 60% of it. $75 million of that will go into the asset on a somewhat expedited basis. It's a lot faster advancement to FID than Francisco Metals could have done on their own. That's supercharging what's an important asset for us based on the old PEA. To put into perspective, that could be 9,000 GEOs, depending on your commodity price assumptions, 9,000 GEOs a year once in production. To have that starting to gain momentum is X1.

Corvette's another one I'll talk about. I'll probably skip the next two just to get to Q&A faster. You know, Corvette and the 2% lithium royalty that we have on what looks like most of a potential Patriot Battery Metals deposit, there's, you know, no resource yet, but looks like covers 70%-80% of what might be meaningful, basically just missing a corner. You know, that's turned into, over the span of a year, a microcap company to a $1.2 billion entity. Long way from production, obviously, some of the most important and impressive jewels I've seen in the lithium space. I think the best one I remember is 25 meters of 5% lithium oxide. That's direct shipping ore, basically.

Since that was in the back of our portfolio, we basically paid nothing for it. We didn't pay anything for it, and we have a 2% royalty on that entity. That shows you again the optionality of the royalty sector, and then I think more specifically, the optionality of our portfolio. Good things happening. Again, I'll jump through it, but good things happening on these all, on all three of these pages. I'll throw it back now to Fred, to Frédéric Ruel to walk you through the specifics around the year and the Q4, and then I'll be back with you to just tie things up.

Frédéric Ruel
CFO and VP of Finance, Osisko Gold Royalties

Thank you, Sandeep. [Foreign language]. Good morning. Thank you for joining us today. Let's start with some highlights on page 15 of the presentation. As, as discussed, record 89,267 GEOs in 2022, an increase of 12% over 2021. We had record revenues from royalties and streams of CAD 280 million, compared to CAD 200 million in 2021, which translated into record cash flows from operations of CAD 175 million compared to CAD 153 million in 2021, which is a 14% increase. Our cash margin was stable at 93%. We have increased our accordion feature of the revolving credit facility. We have extended the maturity date as well to September 2026.

We have repaid our converts at the end of December using CAD 150 million from our cash balance, and we drew the remaining CAD 150 million from our credit facility. We've also repurchased 1.7 million shares in 2022 at an average price of CAD 13. On page 16, we present our GEOs by asset and by commodity. Gold represented 69% of our GEOs in 2022, silver 19%, and diamonds and other commodities 12%. On page 17, we present the growth in our revenues from royalties and streams and the growth in our operating cash flows, so 2022 compared to 2021.

If we move to page 18, net earnings from our royalty and streaming business were CAD 85.3 million or CAD 0.47 per share, compared to CAD 76.6 million or CAD 0.46 per share in 2021. Adjusted earnings amounted to CAD 111 million or CAD 0.62 per share, compared to CAD 94.4 million or CAD 0.56 per share in 2021. Of course, 2022 was an annual record. On page 19, we have a summary of our quarterly and annual results, including 25,000 GEOs for the fourth quarter for a total of over 89,000, as previously mentioned, compared to 80,000 GEOs in 2021.

Gross profit amounted to CAD 43 million in Q4, for a total of CAD 150 million in 2022, compared to CAD 139 million for the previous year. Adjusted earnings in Q4 reached CAD 34.9 million or CAD 0.19 per share, compared to CAD 23.8 million or CAD 0.14 per share in Q4 of 2021. On page 20, we present a breakdown of our cash margin. The cash margin from royalties reached CAD 40.8 million in Q4 and CAD 143 million for the whole year. The cash margin from our streams amounted to CAD 17.4 million in Q4 and slightly below CAD 59 million for the year, for a record CAD 201.7 million, sorry, in 2022 compared to CAD 187 million in 2021.

On page 21, we present the value of shares buyback and dividends paid in function of the average gold price on an annual basis. During the last five years, we have returned in dividends and share buybacks approximately one-third of our GEOs. Finally, on page 22, you'll find a summary of our financial position at the end of last year. Our cash balance was at CAD 90.5 million. We held investments having a value of just slightly below CAD 400 million. Our debt stood at CAD 150 million following the repayment of the converts. We currently have CAD 600 million available under our credit facility, including the accordion of CAD 200 million.

In summary, another great quarter, led by strong deliveries and a strong gold price. The year 2022 saw record quarterly and annual cash margins and operating cash flows. We've completed the realignment of Osisko as a pure royalty and streaming company, and I will look forward to continue to grow in 2023 and in the coming years. I will now turn the call back to Sandeep before we open the lines for questions.

Sandeep Singh
President and CEO, Osisko Gold Royalties

Yeah. Thanks. Thanks, Fred. Maybe just the last things I would point out on those last two slides, that Fred alluded to. On 22, you know, worth noting that we still have to fund the CSA transaction hasn't closed yet, so that will come off our credit facility, depending on how much of that deal we take. Certainly the silver, but depending on the copper. Nonetheless, our balance sheet remains exceptionally strong. Have a lot of firepower at the right time on the credit facility scale to our cash flow, which was meaningful last year, with, depending on gold price, should grow this year quite substantially.

The equity book as well, which is less liquid, but we certainly wanna make some inroads on this year, and we think that's very much achievable. When you look at slide 23, you know, we think we have the right mix. We've got meaningfully or incredibly senior scale assets. You know, we've focused, and we will continue to focus on high asset quality. We're gonna maintain the level of consistency you've seen from us, the level of simplicity, and we're gonna let our assets work on that organic growth that we talked about and let it let it unfold. That said, when we see things we like, that we've sourced ourselves, we will have the conviction to follow through with them.

As I said, we have the balance sheet to do it. If we don't, we'll remain completely disciplined. It's a pretty simple formula for us, but one that I think unlocks a significant amount of value if you look at the bottom of the slide. I think if we stay focused on what I just described to you, the bottom of the slide frankly takes care of itself, because this is a portfolio that is too important. We're doing the right things with it. If you look at how the sector as a whole, I think is fair to say is challenged for growth and struggling for growth, I think we've got the right, the right formula to succeed within it.

That's what we hopefully have shown you in 2022 and prior, and that's what we think will unlock a lot of value in 2023 and beyond. Thanks for listening to Fred and I on that piece, and certainly open to any questions, operator, when you're ready.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session. Should you have a question, please press star followed by the one on your touch-tone phone. You will hear a three-tone prompt acknowledging your request, and your questions will be pulled in the order they are received. Should you wish to decline from the polling process, please press the star followed by the two. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. One moment, please, for your first question. Your first question comes from Cosmos Chiu with CIBC. Please go ahead.

Cosmos Chiu
Managing Director and Director of Precious Metals Equity Research, CIBC

Great. Thanks, Sandeep and team, and congrats on a very strong Q4. Sandeep, good talking to you again. It's been a while. Maybe my first question is on your battery metals here, the Patriot Battery Metals. As you mentioned, Sandeep, you know, it's pretty long term, and it kind of speaks to the optionality of your model here. How do you value it, you know, at this point in time, given that there's only a few drill holes, but also given the fact that it is now an over $1 billion market cap company? How do you internally value it? How should we look at it? From that perspective, you know, what are you gonna do with it?

Are you just gonna keep it in the portfolio for optionality, or is there, you know, alternatives in terms of potentially monetizing it shorter term?

Sandeep Singh
President and CEO, Osisko Gold Royalties

Yeah, sure. Those are good questions. I thought it was funny the way you started your question, your comment, Cosmos, because I did see you at the airport yesterday as you walked past me to board a flight. No, look, I think on the battery metal side, you know, it's something we've said our focus is gonna remain gold and silver. Maybe to start at the back end of your question, our focus is gonna remain growing our precious metals cash flow and NAV per share.

In the other category, which we just had more flexibility, and I think anybody, you know, I think what we've shown you and said and then shown you in 2022 is a preference for copper in that space, especially if we get better deals and access to longer life assets in the process. That's, you know, in moderation without changing what I said to you about the focus. The fact that we can pull something like a 2% ISR on most of Corvette out of our back pocket, I think is just, you know, is an exceptional example, and it may be a big example, but it's an example of the optionality of this portfolio. The fact that, you know, we do have such a large development waiting.

We have a large exploration waiting that people don't even get to because you don't need to get to it. If you're trying to value us and get to one times NAV, you don't need to focus within the, you know, within that other category, but it matters. Those are the types of things that have driven the incumbents, the larger peers in our group for a long time. We just haven't had the benefit of it as a relatively, you know, the relative newcomer. To have those types of wins and potential wins in the portfolio, I think is special. In that scenario, you know, in that specific scenario, again, we paid nothing from it for it. The ground that we had from the Virginia acquisition that eventually ended up in Patriot Battery Metals.

And yeah, I don't... I mean, obviously, we value it. You know, it's early days. I mean, you know, how right can we be in our valuations when there isn't a resource, is a question mark. Obviously, we try to keep the tabs on everything we have. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter. It's worth a heck of a lot more today than it was worth six months ago, and I think the market is telling that with the way they're valuing the company. Obviously, lithium will ebb and flow, and we'll see where it shakes out. All it is is a good news story. We also, I should point out, you know, through the fiscal development, they took the rest of that ground that was in James Bay.

They've already joint ventured out pieces of it because they're not gonna get around to it themselves, but they've retained upside the joint ventured pieces of that to different companies. You know, hopefully, there's other folks doing drilling there. We have a 2% royalty on all of it. You know, hard to say that we'll get another example like this one, but if there's something that kind of continues to give value out of nothing, I think that's good news. In terms of the core, you know, coreness, if you will, of that asset to us, you know, I've often said when asked, you know, would we sell royalties? You know, I've often answered no.

You know, these things are very hard to assemble and you don't want to give them up if you don't have to. I think, you know, the truth is everything always has a value, or at least it should. And this is one where, like you said, it's long dated. If it matters more to somebody else than it does us, we, you know, we'll listen. That's true of a lot of, you know, it should be true of everything. I think in this case, given the commodity and the lunch, you know, and the time horizon to it, I think that's truer of this one than anything else. Great to have it.

You know, if you'd asked me about Corvette or specifically the SCI claims a year ago, I would have, you know, had a dumb look on my face and made something up, you know. Because we didn't know we had it, essentially. We knew we had it, we didn't know it mattered. A few drill holes in the mining sector can change a lot.

Cosmos Chiu
Managing Director and Director of Precious Metals Equity Research, CIBC

Of course. Maybe switching gears a little bit, going to Victoria Gold. You kind of touched on it, Sandy, earlier in the presentation, but Eagle, the Eagle Mine had an updated mine plan earlier today. As we saw lower annual production, but longer mine life and, you know, it seems like higher CapEx. I'm sure, as you said, you keep internal models on all your assets. Like, how does that compare, you know, in terms of your internal expectations? Were you expecting sort of longer mine life, lower annual production? I think you mentioned that it was a good news story earlier during the presentation. Could you maybe walk us through? You know, did it meet your expectations?

Sandeep Singh
President and CEO, Osisko Gold Royalties

Yeah. Look, I'd say yes. You know, in terms of the mine plan, you know, we've, we obviously have conversations with our partners, you know, at all times. You know, they can share a little bit more with us. Then, you know, now we're dealing with the same information that everybody has. I will caveat my comment with the fact that we as a team still need to pore through that press release. I just skimmed it this morning, and we had a brief discussion about it. Overall, I think what I saw, and again, with that caveat, maybe I missed something. I think in the life of mine, there's a trickle of higher production, to be honest.

It's obviously spread out over longer, so the back end is a little bit different. Over the next few years, I think we're seeing kind of what we expect to see. I think an average over the next 8 years or over an 8-year period of about that 200,000 ounce mark. That's kind of where we're, we've been expecting them to go. obviously for the, you know, time being or maybe for the foreseeable, you know, maybe for forever, the project 250 is not in the cards. Even, even so, I think just getting up to that 200,000 steady state level I think is good news. It's coming at a cost.

I think the truth of the mining sector, I think if you've been following, as I'm sure all of you have, you know, the guidance numbers coming out for 2023 so far, I think we've seen, you know, generally speaking, a little tougher to get the ounces out of the ground and costs more, right? I think that's a thematic across the entire sector. That's not, you know, specific to Victoria. But just a function of where we are from an inflation perspective for the next little while. If it's sticky in the world, it's even stickier in the mining sector. We're comfortable with what that is.

I mean, and again, that's a little bit of a dichotomy of operating company versus royalty company, but I think we're pretty pleased with what they've put out. We look forward to, as I said, spending more time going through it and then obviously getting the technical report within the next 45 days to further look into it. Overall, I think for us, we're happy with what we're seeing. I think the transition for them You know, from single asset developer to, you know, producer, that's one that's crippled a lot of companies. I think they've actually dealt with it well, especially during a COVID period, an inflationary period. You know, we're certainly pleased with our partner, we as a bunch of market participants are looking forward to a better 2023.

Cosmos Chiu
Managing Director and Director of Precious Metals Equity Research, CIBC

Perfect. Thanks, Sandeep, again, for your very good answers. I'm sure I'll keep bumping into you at airports.

Sandeep Singh
President and CEO, Osisko Gold Royalties

Yeah. Try not to forget talking to me today.

Operator

Your next question comes from John Tumazos. Please go ahead.

John Tumazos
Managing Director, Principal, and Director of Research, John Tumazos Very Independent Research

Thank you. Just looking at the stock prices of your operators as lead indicators, Sandeep, Island Gold, Alamos appears to be doing well. Capstone appears to be doing well. Some of these faraway companies I'm not as familiar with, but what are some of your other operators where the share price is a good lead indicator? Then after you give me the good news, I'll ask you some questions about the other ones.

Sandeep Singh
President and CEO, Osisko Gold Royalties

Yeah. Look, I mean, that's, let me find the right slide to think through this. I mean, look, I think that's a good point. I mean, generally speaking, you know, share prices will do what they do. I think our partners overall had a very strong 2022, and I think they're poised to have a strong 2023. Whether you look at, obviously, it was a tough day last week for Agnico, for instance, but I think that story is still exceptionally strong. You mentioned Capstone, you mentioned Alamos. I think if you look at our partners as a whole, you throw in Newmont in there with Éléonore, you throw in FSR, Eldorado, I think our partners are on the upswing.

I do think there's a, you know, as I touched on it with Cosmos questions, I do think there's a difference, a little bit in that, on the operating side, you know, we are seeing cost pressures. We're still seeing CapEx pressures. I think if you've seen some weakness in share price, it has to do with that side of the equation. Then the beauty for us, as we repositioned ourselves, is the, you know, the cash, you know, the cost side of the equation doesn't factor us as much. As long as our partners are pushing forward with the initiatives that we need them to push forward with, as long as our assets continue to matter to our operators and our partners. From that perspective, I would tell you that they absolutely do.

You know, because we're, you know, we're generally talking about assets that are top one or two to our partners. They're spending a lot of energy on them, and they're important to their business. They're low cost mines for the most part. I think we'll continue to see a lot of positivity from our partners on our assets.

John Tumazos
Managing Director, Principal, and Director of Research, John Tumazos Very Independent Research

Talking about the ones where the stocks didn't go up, what do you think is a good timeframe to expect Agnico to have East Gouldie as a proven and probable reserve? Or do you think it's gonna be like Odyssey, where they just produce the gold and don't bother to document reserves?

Sandeep Singh
President and CEO, Osisko Gold Royalties

I think we had the first trickle of reserves this year in the entire Odyssey deposit. I think the M&I is M&I for Agnico is probably reserves for most people. I think that's the way they'll probably position it. To have north of 6 million ounces in the M&I category, a big lift, almost 3x versus what was in there last year. Good news. They're drilling from surface largely, some underground drilling now in 2022. I think, and I hope that that definition drilling will just intensify as they have more access underground. Still hitting it really hard from a drill perspective in 2023.

I think it's still the same 13 rigs doing basically the same amount of drilling as the last two years.

John Tumazos
Managing Director, Principal, and Director of Research, John Tumazos Very Independent Research

If we move to OGC, that's down almost 80% from where you first announced the formation of the company. What are the things that attracted you to the Barkerville acquisition? Would you never, like, make a property acquisition again or not in a narrow vein structure? You know, what are the outlooks for this?

Sandeep Singh
President and CEO, Osisko Gold Royalties

Yeah, look, I mean, I think we can go back and play with business history. Certainly there was a logic at the time to protect an asset that mattered, and put it back into the right vehicle, better funded, better backed. Not an asset, but that's exactly what ended up happening, unfortunately with a lot of pain in between, from a market perspective. No, that's not something we're looking to ever revisit. I still think that, I mean, you're absolutely right. The share price of Osisko Development was tough in the last two years. It wasn't a lot better for most development companies, but it certainly was tough on the Osisko Development side.

My hope and expectation is that that can bottom out and start to have an upward trend again in 2023. I think it'll be driven largely off the enthusiasm that the market has for Tintic and that high-grade story in Utah. You know, that initial resource I think on a postage stamp is really good. The fact that that postage stamp was 7%-10% of the potential mineralized envelope, really good. The fact that Ivanhoe Electric and Robert Friedland are drilling on the immediate boundary for deep copper porphyry potential that if they find, the whole world will hear about and will, and all, you know, transition over the boundary. I think all that will be the good news story.

Otherwise, you get paid to wait from a Caribou perspective with the feasibility in and the permitting still expected for this year. I don't think that's in the stock. Hopefully between those two kind of flagship assets and some permitting good news from a San Antonio perspective, hopefully, it can be a turnaround year. We're happy to see them taking some more money and have the funds to go after their assets, continue to go after their assets aggressively. Yeah, tough one. Absolutely. You know, we all took it on the chin from that share price perspective. Hopefully, that turns around.

John Tumazos
Managing Director, Principal, and Director of Research, John Tumazos Very Independent Research

Osisko Mining has had very good technical reports, and they're in permitting, but their stock lags. Do you just write that off to the bad stock market for gold stocks?

Sandeep Singh
President and CEO, Osisko Gold Royalties

Yes. I don't think you could do anything else. I mean, the asset's tremendous. The catalyst they've had are real. You know, I touched on them earlier. You know, I think it's unfortunate that the market still doesn't give the, you know, development companies enough credit. I think the, you know, investment dollars have, especially in 2022, gone towards producing names. Hopefully, we'll see a market that's a little bit better for the development names. That matters to us on the share price. It matters to us from all perspectives. You know, we wanna see that company succeed in every way. We've got the royalty on the royalty side. We think the value of our asset has grown. On the share side, it hasn't.

I don't lose any sleep over Osisko Mining. It's just too special of an asset, you know, it fits on, you know, on one hand, very easily in terms of the things you could compare it to in the market. I think that will have its moment in sun for sure.

John Tumazos
Managing Director, Principal, and Director of Research, John Tumazos Very Independent Research

Is Falco one that has a timetable to proceed? That's one where the share is sort of, pretty dormant.

Sandeep Singh
President and CEO, Osisko Gold Royalties

Yeah. Look, if it does, I mean, I think it's tough to point to it right now. That's not one where we have to kind of commit CAD until there's success going forward. We hope that there is, but we're not kind of advocating today and pounding on the table that there will be any kind of timeline that we can point to. Again, I hope that there is because I think it's an important 10 million ounces that's valuable. I mean, if Wasamac, for instance, can be you know, railed to Malartic, then those ounces, you know, should matter too in that area.

Until Glencore kind of figures out what it's doing with the government in terms of their emissions, until they kind of figure out how to be, you know, how to fit in the town of Rouyn-Noranda, from a long-term perspective, I think it's tough to say that the underground ounces, below the Horn Five, are gonna get a lot of attention. That's kind of option value, I think I would point at this point. I hope it does come good, but I don't have a timeline for you, John.

John Tumazos
Managing Director, Principal, and Director of Research, John Tumazos Very Independent Research

If I could follow up on the earlier questions from Cosmos. There's a number of emerging battery metals royalty companies. It's a good promotional theme. I guess they need assets. The lithium price has come off. The EVs aren't selling well this month. The stock market has an appetite. Two of the worst proposals I ever got that I refused to have speak at my conference were lithium companies, either on the basis of metallurgy or one of them had 3.4 million tons of resource per assay, had no data. Why not sell Corvette into the lithium bubble to somebody that might be able to promote it better as a pure play on lithium?

Sandeep Singh
President and CEO, Osisko Gold Royalties

No reason other than, you know, we're not in the business of giving away value for less than what we think it's worth. I think, you know, that logic holds. I don't know what happens to the lithium sector in the medium term, long term. I do know that the world needs more lithium assets. Does it need all of them? you know, time will tell. This, even though it's an early stage one, I think is one of the better ones out there that we can see. We like what we see here. It's early days. We're very happy with the progress they're making, and we look forward to seeing more both on the exploration, ultimately the resource on the metallurgy side. It all bodes well.

The level of importance that the Quebec government is placing on battery metals, lithium in particular, I think you've seen it in the other things they're involved in, is high. You know, the government wants Quebec to be a major player on the world scale from that perspective. There's a lot of good things. Even though it's very early, there's a lot of good things pointing in the direction of that, and we'll either let that unfold. You know, that's in the other category where I think analysts ascribe $100 million in NAV to. If you believe in the rule of thumb that says every point of royalty is worth four or five of the assets, then the market cap will imply that this asset alone is worth nine figures.

It sits in an other NAV basket that, you know, that has 9 figures to it in totality with a lot of good things in there. It's a good place to be. We'll, you know, we'll take it for the time being and watch it, if ever it mattered more to somebody else than it does to us, you know, then so be it.

John Tumazos
Managing Director, Principal, and Director of Research, John Tumazos Very Independent Research

Thank you, Sandeep.

Sandeep Singh
President and CEO, Osisko Gold Royalties

My pleasure, John.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, should you have a question, please press star followed by the one. Your next question comes from Ralph Profiti with Eight Capital. Please go ahead.

Ralph Profiti
Principal and Equity Research Analyst, Eight Capital

Hey, thanks, Sandeep. Just one quick question from me, if I may. The first half of 2023, that's what you have in your presentation with respect to the CSA transaction. Just wondering, is that should we be thinking about that as a placeholder? It's been a while since we've heard from the Metals Acquisition Corp guys on the progress of this complicated transaction. Just wondering what you're thinking about, you know, the timing of that. Is the silver and potential copper stream would we possibly see those enter into the guidance when the deal closes, meaning that silver and that copper would come in immediately upon deal closing?

Sandeep Singh
President and CEO, Osisko Gold Royalties

Yeah. Well, good questions, Ralph, and good morning. You're right. That transaction has been very long in the tooth. You know, I don't advocate for de-SPACing transactions if you wanna keep your life simple. I think the team there has done a phenomenal job, how should I put it? Lasting a pretty nasty drop in the copper price last year, recutting a deal with Glencore that makes more sense, recutting a deal with us that makes more sense for us, and now kind of coming to the very tail end of that transaction. Just before Christmas, it was odd timing, but just before Christmas, or sorry, between Christmas and New Year's, I can't exactly recall, they lodged their F-4 statement with the SEC, their prospectus essentially.

It's been going back and forth now. That was one gating item. Our hope is that that gets done in the very near term. They're putting a pin in their pipe financing and getting to a SPAC shareholder vote, if not, you know, late March, let's probably call it April. That one's coming to a head. We have factored in the silver into that guidance number for 2023 with an effective date of February 1st. We factored in 11 months of silver. If that doesn't come in, then, you know, the guidance, the range that I would point you to is more middle of that range than top of that range. That's what we've done because we're pretty confident about it after, you know. That hasn't always been true.

I was describing it as a coin flip in the middle of 2022. Now I see very good visibility to the end result. In terms of the copper, it doesn't really matter because even though the copper, it's all producing today, obviously, I'd remind you that in the deal, we gave them essentially a 1-year hiatus on the copper. It would start in, you know, 2024 anyways. That would be in the guidance number for next year. It's not in the 2023 number, nor is it in the 2027 number. We'd have an opportunity to revisit that next year, depending on how much effect the copper gets taken.

Ralph Profiti
Principal and Equity Research Analyst, Eight Capital

Yeah. Okay. Gotcha.

Sandeep Singh
President and CEO, Osisko Gold Royalties

Yeah, after, yeah, after a long lull, trust me, we felt it. It's nice to be seeing daylight there.

Ralph Profiti
Principal and Equity Research Analyst, Eight Capital

Understood. Thanks very much.

Sandeep Singh
President and CEO, Osisko Gold Royalties

No problem, Ralph. Thank you.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. Please proceed.

Sandeep Singh
President and CEO, Osisko Gold Royalties

Okay. Great. Thank you, operator. Thanks, everyone, for bearing with us for almost exactly an hour, and really happy with the way we ended the year, really happy with how we're set up to unlock value in 2023. We do think we've done a lot of the heavy lifting, and the story is resonating right now. We intend to kind of keep after it, and hopefully, we'll have good things to come back to you with. Our partners are certainly doing that. And hopefully, we'll continue to see a good pipeline of opportunities for us. Thanks for your time, and we'll talk soon. Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

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