Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Pan American Silver conference call. At this time, all lines are in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. If at any time during this call you need assistance, please press star zero for the operator. This call is being recorded on Tuesday, December 19th, 2023. I would now like to turn the conference over to Siren Fisekci. Please go ahead.
Thank you, operator, and thank you for joining us today for Pan American Silver's webcast and conference call to discuss our La Colorada Skarn project. Please note, this call includes forward-looking statements and information, and you are advised to see the cautionary statements in the slides that accompany this call, and in our news release issued on December 18th, 2023, announcing the results of the PEA for the La Colorada Skarn project. Joining the call today will be our VP of Geology and Exploration, Chris Emerson, and our SVP of Technical Services and Process Optimization, Martin Wafforn. We'll begin the call with a few introductory comments from Pan American's President and CEO, Michael Steinmann. There will be time at the end for questions and answers. I'll now turn the call over to Michael.
Thanks, Siren, and thank you everyone for joining our call today. We are very pleased to share the results of our preliminary economic assessment for the La Colorada Skarn project. We announced the discovery of the skarn deposit in October 2018, with initial drill results that indicated that we had discovered, through brownfield exploration, a significant polymetallic deposit beneath our producing La Colorada mine. The results of the PEA, announced on December 19, represent a significant milestone in the continued evolution and advancement of the La Colorada Skarn project, and it took only five years to get here, obviously, because, as I mentioned, it is a brownfield exploration discovery. The PEA currently envisions a 50,000 tons per day sub-level cave mining method, accessed by declined ramps and featuring two ventilation shafts.
A conventional 50,000 tons per day capacity, selective zinc and lead flotation processing plant, and dry stack tailings facility, would produce silver-bearing mineral concentrates at an average rate of over 2,000 tons per day of zinc concentrate, grading about 59% zinc, at 846 tons per day of lead concentrate, grading about 61% lead. The initial capital cost is estimated to be about $2.9 billion over a six-year construction period, with peak spending in years 4 and 5 when the mill is being constructed. The payback period of the initial investment is expected to be 4.3 years. Importantly, we would continue to mine the veins in the current La Colorada mine during the skarn construction and development period.
The after-tax net present value, discounted at 8%, is estimated to be approximately $1.1 billion. The after-tax internal rate of return is estimated to be 14%. Those economics are based on metal prices of $2,800 per ton of zinc, $2,200 per ton of lead, and $22 per ounce of silver. Sensitivities to a 6.5% discount rate and metal prices are provided in the news release. Pan American is focused on the silver in the deposit. The Skarn is expected to produce about 17.2 million ounces of silver annually during the first 10 years of its estimated 17-year mine life.
In addition to the large amount of silver, the deposit is estimated to produce 427,000 tons of zinc and 218,000 tons of lead annually during the first 10 years. Given the large amount of base metals in the deposit and the high quality of the zinc and lead concentrates that will be produced, we believe there is an attractive opportunity to partner in the development of the Skarn project for the base metals, while we would focus on the large silver production. With the release of the PEA, we are now in a better position to engage parties who have expressed interest in partnering with us in developing this project. It is important to note that the PEA reflects only one point in time.
The mineral resource update only includes the drill results up to December 2022 and does not include any drill results for 2023. The deposit remains open for further expansion with a drill program that continues to be actively underway. We will also continue to evaluate other options for development of the Skarn and opportunities to enhance further the life- of- mine economics. A copy of an updated technical report on Pan American's La Colorada property, including the PEA on the La Colorada Skarn project, will be filed with Canadian securities regulators. The report will be available under the company's profile on SEDAR and on our website within 45 days of today. I now turn over the call to Chris Emerson, our VP of Exploration and Geology, who will provide you with some comments on the geology of the skarn deposit.
Thanks, Michael, and good morning, everyone. Over the next few minutes, I hope to give you a general overview of the La Colorada Skarn geology and a description of the last five years of exploration work.
The La Colorada project is located in the Zacatecas mining district, within the Mexican Silver Belt. The project lies 16 kilometers southeast of Chalchihuites, and 30 km south-southwest of Sombrerete, two historic mining camps with silver and base metal production from veins and associated skarn deposits. We are in the eastern flank of the Sierra Madre mountains. On the left-hand side of the slide, you will see a general geology map of the La Colorada mine, where Pan American mines silver and rich polymetallic veins. In particular, the Amolillo and NC2 veins are seen on the map. The Skarn footprint can be seen to the east, shown in red and labeled 901, 902, and 903. The Skarn sits roughly 800 m below surface and covers an area over a strike length of 1.2 km x 800 m wide.
What is a skarn? A skarn ore deposit forms when hot fluids from intrusive rocks being in place, replace limestones, creating alteration minerals. With the formation of these minerals, space is generated, which allows for later metal-rich ore-forming fluids to deposit. Skarn deposits are often found in the contact zones between these intrusive igneous rocks and the carbonates or the limestones. Importantly, for the skarn, is the formation of garnets, and specifically for the La Colorada Skarn, the formation of brownish-greenish garnets. The different color, colorations indicating if you are close or far away from the heat source or the intrusives. The mapping and logging of these garnets within the drilling has allowed us to understand and build the geological and alteration model of our Skarn deposit. On the right-hand side of the slide, you'll see a typical cross-section looking north.
The light pink unit is the volcanics, which hosts the majority of the vein deposit where we are currently mining. In blue, the limestone sits below. The darker pink blobs are the all-important intrusives, which have brought up the hot mineral and metal fluids to create the metal alterations and the sulfides. You'll see those garnets on that cross-section in the green brownish colors. The main sulfides are sphalerite and silver-rich galena and pyrite. There is a minor portion of chalcopyrite sporadically distributed. Next slide. Here you will see a long section of the whole deposit and the geological resource. The drilling, geological, and resource models have been completed to international standards.
The indicated resource classification has been restricted to well-informed mineralized units that require at least three drill holes with a minimum of five composites within a 60-m to 70-m radius or less, while an inferred classification was assigned to all units with at least one drill hole within 90 m or less. We've been drilling the Skarn since the initial discovery in 2018, and to date, we've drilled over 280,000 meters. The PEA resource is based on only 242,000 m. Most of the drilling has been completed from surface. Pan American has used directional drilling, specifically Devico, for most of this program.
You'll note the mother holes from surface, and you'll see on this, that long section, the drill traces coming down from the top of the section, with subsequent daughter holes drilled off in different arrays. We expect the updated resource estimate for the Skarn to include the additional 40,000 m we drilled by mid-2024. The current indicated mineral resource is 173.6 million tons at 2.79% zinc, 1.32% lead, and 33 g per ton silver. The inferred mineral resource totals 103.6 million tons at 2.47% zinc, 1.03% lead, and 35 g per ton silver. We've posted a video of that to our website that further describes the geology and exploration results for the skarn deposit.
Please take a moment to view the video, 'cause it does provide a more dynamic view of the deposit that we are now unable to do through the slides alone. The video is available on the Events and Presentations page of our website, and the link is also included on the webcast details for this call. I would like now to turn the call over to Martin Wafforn, Senior Vice President of Technical Services and Process Optimization, who will provide more information on the development plans for the Skarn.
Thank you, Chris, Michael, and good morning, everyone. The skarn deposit at La Colorada was discovered in 2018, and since then, we have been working diligently to successfully expand it and to find the best way to exploit the resource. We published the first resource in 2019, and at the time, we envisaged a 10,000 tons per day production rate from a long-hole open stoping mine. As we were developing those plans, our exploration team was pulling in intercepts of skarn mineralization over hundreds of meters. The inferred mineral resource grew to 100.4 million tons in August 2020, and it soon became apparent that the overall dimensions of the deposit were growing such that the long hole mining method that we had selected was no longer viable.
We reported a large increase in the mineral resource estimate for the Skarn in September 2022, of 95.9 million tons of indicated mineral resource, plus 147.8 million tons of inferred mineral resource using a sub-level caving method. Our approach for this preliminary economic assessment was to use a combination of independent third-party consultants for specific areas where we needed expertise, and to compile and QP the report internally with our in-house experts. Starting with the design of the underground, which you can see on the slide showing a longitudinal section. The skarn deposit lies between 800 m and 1,600 m below surface, whereas our existing main vein mine workings currently extend from surface down to 600 m. The mining zones are called 901, 902, and 903.
Unlike the veins currently being mined, the Skarn zones are hundreds of meters thick. These are very large deposits, and it has taken a lot of time to do the access design, review the capability, model the flow inside the mining zones, and to optimize the economics. For the purposes of the PEA, we now have a mining inventory from combined categories that totals 284.7 million tons. The 901 and 902 zones are the biggest, with the material extracted from the 901 zone estimated to total 119 million tons, and from the 902 zone, 116 million tons. The 903 zone is still very large at 47 million tons.
The westernmost zone, 902, has the overall highest value per ton, but in general, the highest grades are nearer, nearer the top of the ore bodies, supporting the selection of a top-down mining method like sub-level caving. The depth of the deposit below surface is a controlling factor in the estimated six-year development and construction period. Mining and processing of the La Colorada veins will continue throughout this construction period. The major underground development for the Skarn project consists of twin access ramps from surface and two nine-m diameter concrete lined ventilation shafts. We do anticipate high rock temperatures and have designed a combination of high ventilating air volumes and a surface refrigeration plant to ensure a productive and safe work environment. One of the twin ramps mentioned will be fitted with a 3,800-m-long conveyor for ore extraction.
Turning to the next slide, one of the key aspects of the mine design is to ensure that the key infrastructure, like the ventilation shafts, conveyor, and access ramps, are outside of the area likely to be impacted by caving. The repeated exploration success has actually caused us to move the design a few times already as these mining zones continue to expand. Depending on the rate of technological advancement, we anticipate production activities with battery electric vehicles, where feasible, and to take advantage of technological advances in the areas of remote and autonomously operated vehicles. An advantage of sub-level caving is that it is very repetitive. It's a very repetitive process. It's conducive to automation. On the next slide, the PEA design has sub-levels developed on 25-m vertical intervals from an access ramp.
A footwall drift is established, and crosscuts are developed across the ore body to the hanging wall every 15 m. To start mining, a slot is blasted at the far end of the crosscut, and the rings are retreated with one ring blasted at a time and the tonnage extracted according to a flow model. Our plan is to mine the three zones down at the same vertical rate. We have benchmarked the drawpoint for activity against other sub-level caving mines at 400 tons per day per drawpoint. At that rate, we can exceed the overall plant production rate of 50,000 tons a day after an initial ramp-up period. Following the initial development phase, all the ore and some development waste will be primarily crushed underground and conveyed to a covered coarse ore storage facility on surface.
The plan view of the surface Skarn, Skarn project surface facilities on the next slide shows the initial surface layout. The plant has two further stages of crushing, followed by a single-stage ball mill grinding circuit and then selective lead and zinc flotation circuits. The option of a SAG mill will be the subject of a future trade-off study. At full production, we expect to produce over 2,000 tons per day of zinc concentrate and 850 tons per day of lead concentrate. The tailings will be thickened to recycle water to process, filtered in a large filtration plant, and then stacked, as shown in the graphic. We conducted 182 flotation tests, including lock cycle tests. The metallurgical results are excellent, and we anticipate producing high-grade, readily marketable concentrates with little in the way of penalty elements.
Zinc recovery is projected at 93.7% into a concentrate grading 59% zinc. Lead recovery averages 84.3% into a lead concentrate grading 61% lead. Overall, silver recovery is 84.8%, with 72.5% into the lead concentrate and the remainder into the zinc concentrate. I'd like to highlight some of the economic results, which are presented on the slide, PEA results summary, which, as noted, are based on a zinc price of $2,800 per ton, lead of $2,200 per ton, and silver of $22 per ounce. Average annual production from the first ten years is 17.2 million oz of silver, 427,000 tons of zinc, and 218,000 tons of lead. The overall initial capital estimate is $2.8 billion.
The estimated initial capital for the works associated with mining is $1.3 billion, mostly for mine development, especially the shafts and the ramps. Other significant mine initial capital is for infrastructure and mining equipment. Construction of the processing plant starts in the fourth year. The total for the plant and related facilities, including the tailings filtration plant, is $1.2 billion. Most of the remaining initial capital is associated with surface infrastructure and items such as power studies and other costs. In terms of the economics, despite the impact of discounting during the long development period, the after-tax net present value at an 8% discount rate is $1.1 billion, and the internal rate of return of the project is approximately 14%. The payback period is 4.3 years. As Michael mentioned, this PEA is a snapshot in time.
As you have seen from our press releases, we continue to drill successfully and still have all the results from 2023, more than 40,000 m of drilling to inform future estimates. With that, I'll pass it back to Michael.
Great, and thanks, Martin. As you can understand, our team is very excited about this project. This PEA underscores Pan American's commitment to excellence and responsible resource development. The use of existing La Colorada site infrastructure for this Skarn project will be included as part of the design, where it is practical to do so. The design of the new facilities and the underground mine will focus on the application of automation, electrification, energy efficiency, and the use of renewable energy sources to minimize the carbon footprint of this Skarn project. The La Colorada Skarn project offers our investors the potential for long-term value creation. We look forward to your continued support as we progress towards the next stage of this exciting project. And now, together with the other members of our management team, we will be happy to take your questions. Please, operator.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Should you have a question, please press the star followed by the one on your touchtone phone. You will hear a three-tone prompt acknowledging your request. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. First question comes from Cosmos Chiu from CIBC. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks, Michael and team. Maybe my first question is on financing, Michael. You kind of touched on it and talked about the base metal potential here. But could you give us a bit more detail? Like, are you looking at potentially offtake agreements or like joint venture partnerships, and/or streaming agreements? And would you want to, like, maintain operatorship? Is that what you prefer? Maybe if you can give us a bit more color on that.
Yeah, as you can imagine, as I mentioned in the call, Cosmos, having this study now out will really open up and really sets the table for, for further discussion with some interested parties. I think our focus is really on the best return for our shareholders. I mean, what we found here is an incredible deposit of world-class discovery with a brownfield exploration project. That doesn't happen very often. As a, as a matter of fact, in my over 30-year career, it never happened before, and I think it's, you know, it's something really exceptional to see. So there's a lot of potential to create value for our shareholders in a lot of different ways, Cosmos, and I d on't really want to, you know, go in one direction or the other.
I think you mentioned all the ways h ow we can create value and form partnerships here, and that really depends on what kind of offers we receive here. As I said, there is, of course, interest from all sides in the base metal industry. As I also mentioned, we will focus on the silver one way or the other. This is probably about 60% revenue of zinc, so it's a perfect deposit when you look at it, that is, as you know, very, very large silver production, but it's actually not the main product. So there should be a way to split the pie, if you want to call it like that, where we can focus on silver and somebody else can focus on base metals.
As I said, all options are open for me, and we will look at the best way to create value for our shareholders on this.
Of course. That's a good idea. And then, you know, moving on to it, maybe can you talk about timing? You know, certainly you're looking into your financing options at this point in time. You know, that's the main sort of near-term target. But in terms of timing, production, in terms of decision, in terms of when you might go ahead with it, could you talk about timing a little bit?
Look, the next step, and as we mentioned probably a few times in the call, is that the 2023 drilling is not included yet, so next step will be an updated resource estimate. Many of you probably have seen our press release that we put out, when was that? I think a couple weeks ago or three weeks ago, with some further exceptional drill results, and those will be included in the new update as well. So that's the, that's the next step, and I think then forward, you know, I don't have—I mean, we, we put out that timing on construction, which is about six years.
When you look at our current reserves at La Colorada, which I think stand about eight or nine years, of course, they're still—sorry, that's on the vein deposit, just to be clear. That production will continue. As you know, we are finalizing the ventilation circuit for the vein deposit and the top part of the skarn and finalize that big ventilation raise as we speak. So that will continue while we advance this project. It will also continue while we start developing this project, which, as I mentioned in the call, will take about six years to develop all the underground. So it should be quite a seamless transition from the vein mine to the big cave mine, but sub-level cave mine.
But I don't have a starting date yet, Cosmos. I'm sure you understand. This, this is hot off the press here, and, as I said, once we have the new resource estimate, probably mid-next year, we can make the further decision on that. And obviously, it depends also what a potential partnership would look like and what a partner or partners would like to do to advance the project.
Great. And then maybe one last question here. As you mentioned, it's gonna take about six years to develop. Is that being conservative? Six years seems like a fairly long time. And then the other question is, I think you mentioned in the press release, you will need two ventilation shafts. And as you also mentioned, right now, you're putting a new ventilation shaft in place for your upper vein deposit. Is that the same shaft, or do you have to put in something different?
So these are different shafts for ventilation. We’ve got a great piece right now in place. We actually reached last week the bottom of the ventilation shaft we’re building right now. This worked out very well, and we’ll use the same shaft sinking techniques for the other two shafts. As you can imagine, there will be way bigger shafts for this large production. The other thing to your other question is, you know, this is—if this is conservative or not, well, this is a PEA-level estimate, so there’s, you know, there’s obviously a lot of unknowns in this still that we are working on and over the next few month and quarter advance and get more details on.
So I would just, just say this is the point of time. That's, that's what we know about the deposit. We for sure will work on optimizing that, and that includes also the construction period for sure, how to construct and what we exactly construct. So this is just a PEA level and, you know, I don't want to really make further decision if this is really conservative or not, as I said, because it's very early stage.
Of course. Thanks, Michael and team. Those are all the questions I have. Happy holidays.
Thanks. Same to you, Cosmos.
Thank you. The next question comes from John Tumazos from John Tumazos Very Independent Research. Please go ahead.
Congratulations on all the, the work. Could you explain or confirm the definitions of recovery rate and production? Is the recovery rate to concentrate or are they refined metal payable to your shareholders? And is the production refined metal, net of smelter charges, all payable, where if we multiply the production times the revenue, all the revenue would be in the revenue line of your future income statements?
Yeah. Hi, John, it's Martin Wafforn here. The numbers reported, when we mentioned the 17.2 million oz per year of silver as an annual average over the first 10 years, that's silver produced as we have typically report. So there is a, there are smelter terms that would need to come away from that for payability of the product.
It's before deductions?
Yes.
Like, John, just like any other production we report.
And John, if I can add, this is Steve. The model and the economics reflect the terms of the, the expected terms for marketing those concentrates. So we do deduct all the treatment charges, we do deduct the payability, so that the revenues do reflect in the economics, the actual revenues we expect to get.
And all of that information will be disclosed in the PEA?
So in current terms, about how much of the 17.2 million oz would be the deduct, and would there be a deduct from the lead or zinc output?
Yes, to both. In terms of the, let me look up the number here very quickly. The payable on the silver is, it's 14, off the top of my head, million oz. And—
So maybe I can weigh in while Martin is looking up the details here. It's somewhere around 14 million oz in total. There's a little bit of silver that reports to the zinc con, as you can imagine, John, so that silver has different payability than if it is in the lead. But most silver is contained in galena, creating, as we said, a very high quality and high-grade lead concentrate, which has way higher payability. So that's the difference to the produced number. And I don't know, do you have the number there? If not, obviously, it will be all disclosed in detail with all the metallurgy in our 43-101.
Are the recoveries to concentrate or refined metal?
The recoveries are to concentrate. But all the payables are obviously in our NSR calculation. When you look at the final recoveries, that includes all the treatment charge and refinery charge for the refined metals.
Yeah. Sorry, John, we just had to try to work it out with the average annual production for the first 10 years of production is. But it comes out to be in terms of payable metals, it's about 14 million oz of silver, 361,000 tons of zinc, and 200,000 tons of lead a year.
That will be payable?
Payable.
In concentrates?
In concentrates.
But as I said, the economics include all the treatment charge and refining charges, et cetera.
Absolutely.
In terms of the price tag, obviously, it'll be the largest CapEx in the company's history. In the past, Michael, you seemed a little reluctant to pursue Mara or La Arena sulfides, but now La Colorada is a bigger capital. I know that you found this, and you're proud of it, but it might seem as though you could buy and build Discovery Silver in Mexico or Abra Silver in Argentina for under $1 billion. Their silver is nice, too.
Yeah. Look, this has nothing to do with being proud or not proud of a project. This is about economics and silver. We sold Mara because it's a copper deposit, and we are not a large copper producer. We talk about divesting our other copper assets for the same reason. I'm talking about looking at a partner or several partners for this project, for the base metals, but there is a huge amount of silver in this deposit, and that's really the biggest difference to all the others. So it doesn't mean that we have to build this.
It doesn't mean that we have to absorb all or much of this capital, depending on the structure we find for a partnership, but my focus will be on that large amount of silver that comes out of this deposit, and that's really the biggest difference to the copper porphyries that we are divesting.
Michael, I'm not a mining engineer. I'm mostly a mathematician or finance person, but it would seem like a pre-stripped open pit like La Arena Sulfide would be easier to execute than a sub-level cave 50,000-ton-a-day underground mine with twin ramps and twin ventilation shafts. You know, those big trucks, they roll real easy. Don't you... What gives you confidence in the executability of this technical study compared to just moving some trucks around an open pit?
Yeah, John, Steve here. Great question, and from my perspective, John, I think you're getting a taste of the future of mining. These near-surface large deposits are few and far between these days, and you're seeing more and more of this style of development occurring around the world. There are several sublevel cave mines that we've looked at around the world, and of course, there are several block cave mines that you're seeing developed around the world today. It's really a direction that mining is going, in my opinion. We haven't seen deposits like this discovered near the surface that would be conducive to open-pit mining. I would say the technology has advanced a lot over the last couple decades, particularly the last decade, and I think our view of this technology is it is a reliable technology.
As Martin alluded to, it becomes almost a factory-type mentality to mining, and the equipment that's being developed and manufactured today, particularly when you look at electrification and automation, is really conducive to build a solid, reliable mine with these kind of deposits.
Thanks, Steve.
Thank you for being patient with my questions, and I'm sorry if I don't understand everything at the first pass.
That, that's okay. Thanks, John, for calling in, and, as we said, in 45 days, there will be the 43-101 out there with great details on all the mining methods, recoveries, production, et cetera, et cetera. So there will be a lot of details available, and, for sure, continued discussions with our shareholders about this great project.
Thank you. The next question comes from Eric Winmill at Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
Great. Thanks so much, Michael and team, for taking my question. Just wondering if you could elaborate a little bit on the permitting? I know you said you need to get the permitting before the construction start up. Any additional comments there, please?
Yeah, Eric, Steve here. We would have to go through an MEIA process to permit a development of this nature in Mexico. We've been working on developing the baseline information for that. I will say there is a sub-level caving mine in Zacatecas that has been permitted in the last recent decade, so it's not new territory for Zacatecas. We do operate the La Colorada mine. That does give us the foothold to where we think this is quite a permissible mine, but we do have to go through the process. So that would be something we already are undertaking in terms of baseline analysis, in terms of preparation of the development plan, but until we decide which, specifically which development we would go forward with, we wouldn't submit that plan for permitting.
Okay, great. Thank you. Very helpful. Maybe just one more from me. I know you talked about optimization and still early days. What are some of the areas that you really see that you might be able to get some optimization as you continue, you know, drilling, get the new resource out?
From the geology side, for sure, on the resource, we did not find the end of this deposit yet. And again, when you look at the results we published in 2023, you understand my statement. There is a lot of high-grade intercepts that we discovered further, and we continue to drill there. I'll pass it on to Martin for the mine engineering opportunities.
Yeah. Thank you, Michael. Yeah, finding more high grade near the top, that, that always helps, you know, in terms of payback and, and everything else. That would be, that would be a fantastic outcome if we could, if we can continue to expand some on some of those high-grade intercepts that we've had in 2023, and we could, build a resource around them, big enough that we can, improve the, the revenues in the first few years. That would really help. As we look forward, there seems to be a, you know, these deposits continue to expand, continue to grow. There's a potential that at some point, we start with the top, with the top at sub-level caving, and then as we get deeper, we start looking at block caving options.
But that's, you know, that, that could be a way down the road, yet we'll see, we'll see how this resource expands.
And if I could add, this is Steve. We are looking at potential for rail haulage of concentrates. We are close to an old rail line that can be upgraded and refurbished and brought back online. We're within about 20 km of a spur for a rail line. Right now, the study assumes that all of the concentrates would be trucked to ports or smelters for treatment, so that would help a lot. And I think, you know, it was alluded to earlier on one of the questions, but I think one of the things we're really focused on is speed of development, how quickly can we bring this up, and can we shave time off that construction time?
We do have challenging ground as we go through the volcanics, as we know from our vein mining experience and our ventilation shafts. So, we've kind of taken some approaches to that, and we're looking at alternatives and how we can speed that process up.
Okay, great. No, thanks so much. Really appreciate the added color, and I'll hop back in the queue and wish the whole team a happy holidays. Thanks. Cheers.
Thank you. Same to you.
Thank you. The next question comes from Craig Hutchison from TD Securities. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, guys.
Good morning.
At one point, you guys were talking about, I think, a 10,000 ton per day underground operation, and I guess the deposit has grown quite considerably over the last couple of years. But is there still scope to do a more targeted, higher grade operation, maybe focused on long-hole stoping, or is just the ground condition such that sub-level caving is the only option you guys have?
I will start, and then I pass it on to Martin. First, and Martin kind of alluded a bit in his comments there as well. We were looking at a 10,000-ton-a-day potential long-haul operation at the very beginning when we discovered this deposit because we did not know how big it is when that happened, when we came out with the first resource estimate. You can understand when you look at the resource now, and as we said, this will grow next year with the additional drilling, but if you would go with 10,000 ton, of course, we would look already at about, what, 85+-year mine life. That's one reason, of course, to go with a way quicker, way cheaper method.
It's that the ore bodies are just of the size and width that you have to go with a way more massive mining method to advance this project. And Martin can allude a bit further, but it's not really the ground condition, but it's really the infrastructure that you have to put in for the entire deposit. So it's very similar. And I mean, when you look, we put for just for comparison reasons, we put the 30,000-ton case in the PEA. And you will see, of course, it's a bit less capital, but it's still very similar infrastructure that you need for that, but way smaller production.
But it will be it... In reality, it's probably that there will obviously be a ramp up and maybe a start at 30 or a bit smaller, and then ramping up to a bigger size. So maybe Martin, you want to give a bit more color to this?
Yeah. Thank you, Michael. Yeah, Craig, you definitely we were looking at that. That was our, that was our sort of starting position to look at 10,000 tons a day, long-hole open stoping with paste backfill. As these deposits got bigger, it just became no longer technically viable to do that, and that was the opinion of some of the consultants that we had as well, from a technical perspective. We've tried to look at going after individual high-grade areas, outside as well, but where you get to is with the depth of these deposits, the infrastructure that needs to be put in place underground to deal with the, with the hot rocks that I, you know, the heat that we expect or anticipate getting in the mine is, is pretty substantial.
It doesn't vary very much depending on the, you know, depending on how the size of the mine changes. So where we get to is we need to have a method like sub-level caving or even block caving, perhaps in the future. If you sort of look at the steps, sub-level caving, where we're going, is about $40 a ton operating cost. And then we were looking much higher than that, sort of $65, $70 a ton for long-hole open stoping. So we think we're at the right mining method, for sure.
Okay, great, guys. Just one other question from me. Can you talk a bit about your plans to negotiate preliminary terms for joint venture on the adjacent grounds? Is that required for the current PEA, or is that upside based on the exploration potential? Thanks.
There's definitely exploration potential on the adjacent ground, and we start working on that. That's, you know, we assume that those are part of the deposit and new discoveries will extend there. When you look at the big flow models, I guess and assume, Martin, there will also flow on some of the other ground closer to surface.
Yeah, absolutely. You know, this joint venture property hasn't really been explored. We haven't really drilled them yet, so there's lots of...
Yeah.
I mean, I think the important part is we know the deposits are right up against the property boundaries, so both parties are very excited about the opportunities to cross over, and I think we're working very well on this.
Yeah. Thanks, guys. Happy holidays .
Thank you.
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. As a reminder, should you have any questions, please press star one. The next question comes from Carey MacRury from Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, guys. Just wondering, in terms of next steps, you mentioned another resource update coming next year, but is there plans to now move the study into sort of a PFS level at this point or is that coming down the road?
Yeah, Kerry, this is Steve. As Martin alluded to, there are some upsides on the underground mining, particularly when we look at the life- of- mine here, and we know these deposits are growing, so it does open up some other opportunities. Right now, we haven't really scheduled out exactly what our next steps would be, but I wouldn't be surprised that the mining methods could change to the effect of being an update to the PEA before we entered into the PFS. We want to kind of look at these optimization studies that we described earlier and see kind of where they fall out, and that'll make a decision on how we go forward.
Maybe just to follow up on the capital, you know, obviously, $2.8 billion is a big number, looking at partners, but in the event you didn't have a partner, would you be comfortable, you know, going it alone 100% if the economics were there?
Sorry, sorry. You broke up there. Could it come again?
Yeah, I was just asking, you know, in the event you didn't have a partner, you know, and the economics were positive, would you be comfortable going ahead on a 100% basis with a $2.8 billion capital?
Look, as I said, at that moment, our focus is to partner up on this project and focus on the silver side of this, you know, very, very large silver deposit. A very large base metal deposit with silver in it. I think that makes a lot of sense for a company like Pan American Silver, and that will be the focus on any discussions.
Okay, fair enough. Maybe just one last one. Could you provide us just the, you know, the life- of- mine grade that you're assuming for each of the metals?
Yeah, give us one moment. We'll pull that up.
And again, the 43-101 will be out in 45 days from now. So with all the great details on reserve resource, or sorry, not reserve resources, modeling, economics, mining, all the details. So, yeah, Martin, go ahead.
Yeah, so the mining inventory, so this is a combined mining inventory, combined categories. So it includes indicated mineral resource and inferred mineral resource, but it also has all of the some of that dilution that comes into the mine plan as a result of the sub-level caving method. The sub-level caving method has a mining recovery and a mining dilution that kind of counter each other to some extent. So the tons are 284.7 million tons. The silver grade is 32 g per ton. The zinc grade is 2.54%, and the lead grade is 1.16%. So that's the overall mining inventory, as we call it, that will appear in the PEA.
Great. That's helpful. That's it for me, guys. Thanks.
Thank you.
Thank you. At this time, I will turn the call back over to Michael for closing comments.
Great, and thanks, operator, and thanks for calling in today. I think it's, you know, it's a very exciting project. It's a very, very large discovery. As, as we kind of alluded to very, very early on when we, when we received the first intercept five years ago of, you know, 300 m and 350 m of width, et cetera. So great to see the results from that... all that effort on the exploration, and looking really forward to advance this, this further, as we said, in the ways that is described in, in this call. We will update the market probably mid-January with our outlook for 2024. Until then, enjoy the holidays, everyone, and looking forward to catch up early in 2024. Thank you very much.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating, and we ask that you please disconnect your lines.