Good morning, afternoon, evening, and welcome to the Pan American Silver 2023 Production and Cost Guidance Conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Siren Fisekci, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Communication. Please go ahead.
Thank you, operator, and welcome everyone to Pan American Silver's call to discuss our guidance for 2023. Media and other participants on the call are invited to participate in listen-only mode. We issued a news release earlier this morning that details our guidance for production, costs, and certain expenditures in 2023. The news release and presentation slides for today's call are available on our website. That material in today's call contains certain statements and information that constitute forward-looking statements and information. Please review the cautionary statements included in our news release and presentation, as well as the risk factors described in our most recent Form 40-F and annual information form. I will now turn the call over to Michael Steinmann, Pan American's President and CEO. Following his remarks, we'll open the call to questions and answers for the rest of the executive team.
Thank you. Thanks, everyone, for joining us today. We are pleased to provide our 2023 guidance for the new Pan American following the completion of our acquisition of Yamana Gold on March 31st. The acquisition brings into our portfolio four producing mines, the Jacobina mining complex in Brazil, the El Peñon and Minera Florida mines in Chile, and the Cerro Moro mine in Argentina. It also adds several new exploration and development projects. It is important to note that the production and cost guidance we provided today for the acquired mines reflects only the nine month period we are owning these assets in 2023, specifically from March 31st to December 31st, 2023. Guidance for the original Pan American mines is for the full 12 months of 2023.
Guidance for the original Pan American mines also reflects the completion of mining activities at Manantial Espejo at the end of 2022, as previously disclosed. It is also important to note that Pan American reports production and unit operating costs using different accounting and reporting practices than Yamana had. We report mine performance under either a silver segment or gold segment, with the sales from the by-product metals as a credit to the unit costs per ounce to produce the primary metal of either silver or gold. Yamana reported production and unit costs on a gold equivalent ounce basis or GEOs. This means that production and costs provided in our guidance are not directly comparable to guidance or outputs previously provided by Yamana.
Other accounting adjustments to be aware of are that we expense more underground mine development costs that were previously capitalized by Yamana, and we allocate a greater amount to operating expenses or sustaining capital than to growth-type project capital. This results in lower project capital and higher sustaining capital, thereby increasing all-in sustaining costs. Please see the news release we issued today for more detailed descriptions of these accounting and reporting differences. Moving on to our consolidated guidance for 2023. We're expecting total silver production of 21 million-23 million ounces and gold production of 870,000-970,000 ounces. Silver segment Cash Costs are expected to be between $10-$12 and all-in sustaining costs between $14 and $16 per ounce.
Gold segment cash costs are expected to be between $975 and $1,100, and all-in sustaining costs between $1,275 and $1,425 per ounce. The mine-by-mine breakdown is provided in the news release issued earlier today and in the slides that accompany this call, where you will also find the forecast for consolidated base metal production. We intend to provide guidance for generative exploration, care and maintenance activities, and general administrative costs with our Q1 earnings release on May 10th. We're expecting sustaining capital expenditures to total $305 million-$320 million and project capital of $75 million-$85 million in 2023.
Following an expansion project previously initiated at Jacobina by Yamana Gold, we will be investing an estimated $26 million-$29 million in the last nine months of 2023 to stabilize the process plant performance and sustain a gold recovery of about 96%. Jacobina is an asset that has tremendous exploration and production potential. We are assigning a 60,000 meter exploration program for 2023 to begin to harvest part of that potential. For the other operations acquired through the Yamana Gold acquisitions, all capital expenditures are being classified as sustaining capital for the remainder of 2023. At La Colorada, we are investing $16 million-$18 million of project capital, largely directed at completing the 5.5 meter diameter concrete line ventilation shaft by the end of this year.
The shaft will be equipped with ventilation fans connected with the adjacent deep underground east Candelaria workings and commissioned to significantly improve ventilation rates around mid-2024. This new ventilation infrastructure will benefit both the long-term development of the Skarn project as well as the current vein system operation. Until this new system is operating, we are restricting mining rates in the higher grade deep eastern portion of the Candelaria deposit at the La Colorada due to additional ground control issues impacting ventilation rates, which is reflected in our production and cost estimates for 2023. At La Colorada, we are also investing project capital in the continued exploration and infill drilling for the Skarn project and advancing the engineering work. Our aim is to release preliminary economic assessment during the second half of this year.
Remaining project capital will be invested at Huarón for a tailings pressure filtration plant and a dry stack tailings storage facility to replace the conventional tailings storage facility currently in operation. At Timmins, for the construction of a paste fill plant at Bell Creek to improve backfill quality and availability for better ground support systems and to increase resource recovery and throughput. The 2023 guidance issued today reflects the accretive nature of the Yamana transaction with a significant increase in production and lower costs. We see tremendous opportunity in the expanded portfolio of assets, and I'm very pleased with the integration of our teams. Within our first month of ownership, we are on track to realize the $40 million-$60 million in annual synergies and are confident that we will achieve further synergies by managing the combined portfolio efficiently.
We continue to have a strong financial position with cash and short-term investments as of March 31, 2023, of approximately $513 million and $425 million available under our $750 million revolving Sustainability-Linked Credit Facility. Pan American is in a strong position with a diversified portfolio of high-quality assets in the Americas, a solid balance sheet and the financial capacity to pursue growth opportunities. On April 18, we became listed on the New York Stock Exchange, providing investors with exposure to highly liquid, well-capitalized company that is a leading producer of silver and gold in the Americas. With that, I would like to open the call for questions.
We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the key. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our operator. Our first question comes from Cosmos Chiu with CIBC. Please go ahead.
Hi, Michael and team, thanks for taking my call. Maybe my first question is on the La Colorada. I see that in your 2023 guidance, production's flat year-over-year. You kind a answered my question in the MD&A in your opening remarks as well, Michael, but I seem to remember that, at one point in time, I think, there was a rehab of another vent raise that could have given you access to some of the higher grade earlier. That's why I think my 2023 expectations were slightly higher than what came out today for La Colorada. Has that changed? I know now we've gotta wait until this other, you know, concrete line, vent way to be completed, I guess, in 2024 before you can access the higher grade.
Has that changed? Could you give me an update?
Yeah. Hi, Cosmos. Steve here.
Hi, Steve.
We have run into. We were trying to develop an internal raise over the last year. We called it Raise Bore Three from the 345 level to the 528. If you remember, the shaft that we had to replace that brought us the air we needed was the Himelios, which brought us from the surface to the 345. We had a raise bore we called Raise Bore One from there to the 528. We were adding a second one. We'd been working on that through the year. It was part of a long-term plan. With that second raise, it would've gave us good access to that Candelaria east deep zone. Unfortunately, during the first quarter. That raise have failed, and it's actually impacted that Raise 41 to some degree as well.
There was a bit of a change there, and it's required us to readjust our long-term plan. It does put more emphasis on getting this concrete line shaft down. When that shaft's in, it'll substantially enhance the refrigerated flow rates in that area where the high grade is. That's why we've decided to readjust the long-term plan, stay out of the area to a large degree, during and mine at below reserve grades until that shaft is completed.
Of course. Understood. maybe switching gears a little bit, again on the 2023 guidance. on a more positive note, for sure, Cerro Moro was higher than what I had expected for both gold and silver. I actually have never covered Yamana, so, it's still better than what I have modeled. so maybe, you know, two questions. Number one, on the, former Yamana assets, you know, what was the process in terms of how you got comfortable with the numbers that you put out today in terms of guidance for those ex-Yamana assets? you know, was it through site tours? Was it through other stuff as well? The second part of my question, anything specific that you can add in terms of Cerro Moro?
Sure. Hi, Cosmos, it's Michael, and I will.
Hi, Michael.
here with the question and then pass it on to Steve. Definitely this is not just a few site tours. We're obviously fully integrating these assets into our portfolio, with, you know, with the strong technical teams on site that Yamana brought to the new Pan American and of course, our technical team that is constantly traveling and being in contact and working together with the on-site teams, to get comfortable, around this asset. We started that quite early. You can imagine that did not just happen in the last three weeks or three now weeks that we own the assets. A lot of work going in there to, you know, wrap our hands around. Still a lot of work to do.
I think the biggest change for us was really on the accounting side, and we explained that at large, I think in the call and in the press release, where we, you know, show as Pan American silver mines and gold mines in our portfolio and do not use equivalencies like Yamana did. That's the biggest change. The other big change really, we assign much less capital to project capital that has to be really future growth for us to end up in the project.
That change means that a bit more capital in general would move into our sustaining capital side and will be reflected in our AISC cost. Those are the biggest changes. Maybe pass it down to Steve here to give a bit more flavor on the site visits and how we, you know, how we work and integrate these assets.
Yeah. Thank you, Michael, and thanks for the question, Cosmos. You know, we spend a significant amount of time, as Michael said, integrating these teams between Pan American and the Yamana group. I'll have to just right out of the blocks, I'll say we are incredibly impressed with the teams that are on these sites of Yamana's assets that were in place when we've taken over the company. That team at Cerro Moro, we have spent some time with them with all our technical groups, our geologists, our mine engineers, planners, HR people throughout the organization. It's a solid team. They're really performing well. They're kind of gone through a long, hard commissioning period on that mine, and I think they've really got that mine dialed in well. We're pretty optimistic with what we see there.
On top of that, they have had some pretty decent exploration success over the last year. You know, one of the deposits, the Zoe, I believe it is, has been seeing some really good high grades, and that's what's driving that higher production this year. I think across all four assets, we're really excited with this team. These teams, they're solid, they're competent, they're engaged, they're enthusiastic, and the integration is going incredibly well.
Perfect. That's great. Maybe one last question, switching gears a little bit. On top of your guidance press release today, you also put out another press release, the consent solicitation for the 2027 and the 2031 senior notes that came from Yamana. My understanding is that the ratings agencies have now rated these bonds, this debt as investment grade under Pan American Silver as well. A very good news. Congratulations. On that, can you walk me through the significance of this consent earlier today? Is it more like a normal more sort of procedure? I tried reading the press release, but to be honest, I got a bit confused.
Hey. Hi, Cosmos. It's Ignacio here.
Hi, Ignacio.
Hey, Cosmos. It's actually quite straightforward. At the time of close, Pan American did, there was a supplemental indenture included in the bonds whereby Pan American guarantees the bonds. Really the purpose of the supplemental indenture is just to align the reporting requirements with that guarantee.
Currently, the reporting requirement is for Yamana Gold Inc., financial statements and annual reports to be filed with the bondholders. The purpose of this consent solicitation is to transfer that to Pan American. As I said, it just aligns up with the guarantee. Going forward, if this consent is accepted by the bondholders, the bondholders will be receiving Pan American Silver Corp., quarterly and annual financial statements. That's the main purpose.
Got it.
It's quite straightforward.
Yeah, it sounds really straightforward. Perfect. Thanks a lot once again. Those are all the questions I have. Thank you.
Thanks, Cosmos.
Our next question comes from Craig Hutchinson with TD Securities. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, guys.
Morning.
My question with regards to the gold segment. In the, in the past, there's been some variability amongst some of the operations like Shahuindo, La Arena, et cetera. Given that Q1 is essentially behind you guys, can you just give some rough guidance in terms of, you know, how you see the kind of the year shaping up, whether we should think about production from these assets as being front-end weighted or back-end weighted?
Yeah, good morning, Craig. Steve Busby here. Relative to the three gold segment assets that we had prior to the acquisition, Shahuindo is running pretty well steady state right now. We're pretty pleased with that. We see that production being flat through the year. La Arena, as usual, is back-end loaded. We always seem every year after year, we go through a pre-stripping phase during the first half of the year into Q3, and then Q4 is really the harvesting time where we're down in the bottom of the pit, and we get a lot of high-grade ore at that time. It is definitely back-end loaded. Dolores is reasonably flat through the year as well.
We do intend, I think we referenced it in the press release, that we will come out with kind of a quarterly guidance as part of our MD&A, in a couple of weeks when we come out with the earnings release. That'll help give you some more visibility to that.
Okay, thanks. Just with respect to the synergies that you guys quoted in the press release, I think it's $40 million-$60 million. Outside of sort of corporate synergies, can you talk to some of the synergies you're already seeing in terms of the savings at the operations level?
Sure, Craig. Yeah. One of the big one, of course, is on the head office cost that we made changes. That's for sure a big one. Another substantial one we see on the exploration side, we really focus on our brownfield exploration like we always did at Pan American, replacing reserves, finding new reserves, close or at least within trucking distance to our existing operations. That's always our main focus, and it's less so focused on very generative greenfield projects. There's another piece of the synergies.
Lastly, that's not, I think, not really included yet in the synergies because we cannot really quantify it right now, and we need a bit more than a month of ownership is, you know, we are active in the region and active in several of the countries. We purchased more assets here. There will be synergies on the office there, synergies on, you know, probably on purchasing and other services that we can harvest over time. You know, that's a bit harder to put your finger onto, and that's at the moment not included in the $40 million-$60 million.
Okay, great. Thanks, guys.
Our next question comes from Don DeMarco with National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.
Thank you, operator. Good morning, Michael and Steve. Just continuing with the question from a previous caller on La Colorada. The ventilation upgrades will progress this year and into mid-next year. You mentioned that during this time, the reserves, the grades will be below reserve grade. My question is, will the upgrades also impact throughput?
Yeah. Good morning, Don. Steve here. No, we're able to go elsewhere. We're able to resequence the mine.
Okay.
Throughput will remain as planned. It's just gonna be at a lower grade than the reserve.
Because I remember last year we saw the throughput sort of ramping up. Post-completion of these upgrades in mid-2024, would we expect then to see the mine running above reserve? Can you just remind us what that sort of throughput, level or target is?
Yeah. Relative to throughput, we're kind of targeting around 2,000-2,100 tons per day is kind of our smooth run rate at La Colorada. Reserve-wise, once this shaft's in place, at that time, we'll have a new reserve as well, so we'll see what the grades look like. No, we expect to run at that point, at that reserve grade going forward, obviously offset-
Okay.
With the low grade that we're pushing now. We'll see what those new grades are at the time.
Okay.
The expectation is we'd be at reserve grade from that point forward.
Okay. Thank you. Now looking at Huarón, one of your lowest cost silver operations in the guidance this year, production remains buoyant, close to 4 million ounces silver. Now I see that there's gonna be some spending on CapEx for dry stack tailings. Seems like a worthwhile investment. How many extra years capacity does this represent?
Well, it's a very important project to us because we're basically replacing the conventional tailings disposal with the dry stack.
The tailings, the conventional tails.
Yeah
... reach capacity in 2025. This really will replace it. The facility we're designing for the first phase of that dry stack gives us about six years of capacity, but it's obviously quite expandable from there. You know, certainly our current designs take us through the current reserves, but we believe there's plenty of capacity in the dry stack scenario to continue that beyond because we do expect this mine to continue beyond the reserve well.
Okay, thank you. Final question. The company's previously messaged intent to divest some of the assets to focus on a more concentrated portfolio. Is this still the intention, and can you provide an update on what some of the priority targets might be?
Look, Don, it's always our job to optimize our portfolio. It's a very large portfolio of producing assets, developing assets, and as I mentioned, a lot of exploration assets as well.
Mm-hmm.
We're spending, as you can imagine, a lot of time right now with our teams to evaluate all these opportunities, future opportunities. There's many of them, and then make a decision later on how we go ahead.
Okay
... with the optimization. It's a little bit early after only, as I said.
Yeah
three and a half weeks of ownership.
Okay, fair enough. That's all for me. Congratulations. Look forward to the financials in a few weeks.
Thank you, Don.
Our next question comes from Eric Winmill with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
Hi, thanks for taking my question. It's, Scotiabank, in fact. Yeah, great to see the guidance out today. I guess just sort of following on Don's question, I know it's still early days in terms of integration, but, you know, if you look out a couple of years, you know, the non-core assets, do you have a sort of preference as to where the cash would be allocated? Is it more, you know, organic opportunities or capital returns, debt, things like that?
Look, nothing has really changed how we see our capital allocation priorities. You probably saw at the end of the press release, our balance sheet is very strong. We are sitting right now on about $513 million cash and short-term investment. We have about $325 million drawn on our line of credit. Our first order of business is always to sit on low debt. I mean, I'm fine with the bonds. They're very long-term, very, you know, low interest debt, but the line of credit will for sure be our focus to pay that back. As you know, we're paying dividends since 2010. Nothing has changed on that. We'll continue to pay dividend.
We declared the dividend for Q1 here a bit earlier, as you recall a few weeks ago. That was really to kind of put in sync former Yamana and Pan American. Now all Pan American shareholders put them in sync on the dividend payment because there was about a two month difference there. Then, you know, we'll continue just with our normal dividend schedule from August on, and we'll probably tweak a little bit our policy to, you know, to take care of that new bonds that we have, of those long-term debt. Our focus will always be on returning some capital to our shareholders.
Lastly, of course, the biggest return we can provide for our shareholders are high quality growth projects, you know, things like La Colorada Skarn, et cetera. You know, there will be enough cash flow available to take care of all these buckets, but that's still our focus like it was before.
Yeah, fantastic. Thank you. Appreciate the extra color there. Maybe just lastly too, on Escobal, any updates there? We're still looking for some sort of a market update probably later this year. Is that the plan?
Well, look, I mean, the meetings are ongoing. I think we gave an update last time. There will be a more fulsome update for sure with our quarterly reporting and MD&A as well. As you know, the ILO 169 is continuing the process. I think the next meeting, if I'm right here, is somewhere in May, mid of May. That all continues kind of as I think as planned. As we said, it's run by the Ministry of Mines, and I can't give you a timing when this is finalized.
Yeah, great. I certainly appreciate that. Thanks so much for the extra color, and congratulations again on getting the deal across the finish line.
Thank you very much.
All right, take care.
Our next question comes from Adrian Day with Global Strategic Management. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good morning. I just had one question, actually. My other one has already been answered. I don't know if you've had. I didn't really follow Yamana, so I don't know how much greenfield exploration they have, and if it's focused in particular countries. I don't know if you've had the opportunity to sort of review their exploration projects and how you would say they stack up against the existing Pan American greenfield projects.
Yeah. Hi, Adrian. Look, we are.
Hi
... midst of that work right now. so give us a few more months, please, to review of them. There are many projects. It's a huge amount of hectares of land across Latin America that our exploration team is looking after. For sure there are some interesting projects there, but as you know, we also have some interesting ones in our portfolio, so we need a little bit more time to make that decision. During the year, we will for sure keep the market informed what our decisions are regarding those assets.
Okay, super. Thank you. Thank you.
Thanks, Adrian.
This concludes the question and answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Michael Steinmann for any closing remarks.
Yes, thank you, everyone, for for calling in today, and looking forward to give you an update on our Q1 results, which will be in about two weeks. Speak then. Have a good weekend. Thanks, everyone.
Conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.