Thank you very much for taking your time out of your busy schedule to attend the press conference by Eisai Co., Ltd . We would like to begin information meeting for fiscal 2024. We are holding this meeting in hybrid format, both in person here as well as online. Presentation materials are distributed to those of you here in person. Materials are also available on the website. I would now like to introduce the speaker today, Mr. Haruo Naito, Representative Corporate Officer and CEO. Mr. Naito, the floor is yours.
Now, I'm showing you the drawings of the zodiac sign for this year. This is my hobby of drawing the cartoon like this. Actually, similar drawing was presented 24 years ago. At the time, Aricept was approved in Japan and was about to be launched.
At the time, Eisai was passing through this, the gateway to success. That was the feeling I had when I drew this drawing at the time. Again, in 2024, with LEQEMBI, we would like to go through this gateway to success. So that is my feeling that I had for this drawing. And here you have the subtitle: We are determined to change the future of AD. First, let me talk about our articles of incorporation. The articles of incorporation, it's something like constitution for companies. This comes at the top of the hierarchy of documents, and this requires the special resolution by shareholders. That means that more than two-thirds of the shareholders attending the general meeting of shareholders are necessary for determining articles of incorporation. This signifies the importance of this. And in these articles, we have included the corporate concept.
We started since 2005 to present these articles of incorporation. As such, I believe that we have incorporated a corporate concept, which is one of the leading concepts among the companies in Japan. First, social goods, which can be translated to impact. Now, we would like to realize social goods effectively, and what the impact is, is as follows. Those impacts are in the form of relieving anxiety over health and reducing health disparities. And the second point is about our business model. As a pharmaceutical company, we have been promoting business model as in full value chain of the pharmaceutical company. But for the future model, as you see here, we would like to pose ecosystem as a business model.
That means that we would like to empower people, not only in the medical domains, but also those people in the daily living domain, by providing solution in order to support them to realize their fullest life through an A to Z ecosystem. The third point is what we hear a lot these days, DE&I, diversity, equity, and inclusion. This is, represented here in this point. Now, when it comes to impact to be realized, what should we consider? We have listed the keys here. We would like to realize impact effectively. In order to do so, we need to quantify impacts. If possible, it's better to represent the impact in monetary values. Then, over time, we will be able to compare to what it was in the past, and also we can compare ourselves with other companies.
Return or financial performance and impact, it should be represented in monetary values so that these can be important KPIs. We believe that this will be a very important key factor for realizing effectiveness. And impact-weighted accounting method, which has become a buzzword these days, and we are considering to implement this accounting method in a wider area. So we would like to start applying impact-weighted accounting method to human capital investment efficiency, which is shown here. Quantifying impact and translating them into monetary values, it can be the first step for realizing effectiveness and efficiency. And the second point here is... First, the integration of multi-talents and technologies seem to be indispensable for pursuing effectiveness.
While we are working on the impact, or that means we are working on the social issues, therefore, it's not that Eisai is trying to pursue returns alone. Rather than that, compared to such a company which is pursuing only return, we believe that we'll be able to gather a lot more and diverse talents and technologies. For example, we are collaborating with Gates Foundation or WHO. What is not experienced by other companies in the pharmaceutical industry, we are able to have encounters with diverse people, and through collaboration with them, we are able to be engaged in a much wider scope of business and activities. On the right-hand side, you can see the same thing.
In order to empower the people in the daily living domain to realize their fullest lives, we are not able to do sufficient contribution on our own. Inclusive of public organizations, I believe that we needed to collaborate with those organization or people with a well-established governance. For that, I believe hhc ecosystem is very important. Through these, we would like to realize effective realization of impact. Here, I would like to put particular focus on talents to explain what we are considering and how effectively we are able to realize impact. On the left, you see global talent. In early 2000s, when we thought about globalization, we tended to keep focus on the West or the U.S. and Europe, and now we have expanded area to India.
In India, we have large-scale manufacturing plant, and we have a wholly owned subsidiary as independent company, and the operation there is getting on track. So beyond India, going forward, we would like to go further to the West. As you see here, Africa or Middle East. We believe that, that these regions will be the source for greater potential for growth in the future. And the picture you can see here was taken about two weeks ago at the opening ceremony for Eisai Pharmaceuticals Africa, which was opened in South Africa, where a Japanese ambassador to the country, Ambassador Ushio, attended. And we are preparing the talents in Africa and in Middle East, Israel, and as well as KSA or Saudi Arabia, we are making preparation for. We are establishing the subsidiaries there.
We are looking towards the West in order to enrich and reinforce our global talents. In the middle, you see what we are doing at headquarters in Japan. We are seeing a steadily increasing number of those people who are mid-career hiring. In about 15%, 16% of total employees are hired mid-career, and those are very active in digital area, legal and compliance, and finance and accounting, and corporate venture investment, with a relatively high retention rate. And as I said earlier, human capital investment efficiency stands at about 82% now, and in FY 2025, we would like to increase this level up to... Sorry, the current level is 80, and we'd like to increase this level up to 82% in FY 2025. And on the right, talent in technology and a new business model.
Under Eisai's logo, it will be difficult to attract such digital talents. But for hhc ecosystem, we believe that digital technology will play a central role. Therefore, we established a new company, subsidiary, Theoria technologies, specializing in this area. And in order to acquire people, we acquired shares of Arteryex. This is so-called acqui-hiring. And in different entities under our group, we are trying to attract those specialist talents, and these are working well and steadily. Actually, the number of applicants for these companies are now increasing rapidly. In other general business domains, in marketing area, omni-channel marketing and data lake is used for AI in order to make the AI to recommend-make the next recommendation, and also KPIs are generated from the business analytics for the management's dashboards. In these areas, we are reinforcing talents.
To quantify such impact, as we have been explaining several times, there are several examples, one of which is about DEC tablets as a treatment for lymphatic filariasis. The DEC tablets are made at the plant in India. Since 2013, Eisai has provided 2.3 billion tablets free of charge. So how long we may continue doing this? There is no return. Using this simple formula, you are able to calculate the impact. For DEC tablets, JPY 160 billion. At the bottom is the annual social impact that we are generating through DEC tablets provided by us. So in parallel with the financial statements, we would like to show clearly these impacts and the value of them as well.
And next, I would like to talk about the recent case of the impact of LEQEMBI being quantified. And if you look at on the left-hand side of the numerator of this QALY, Quality-Adjusted Life Year gained times WTP threshold. These are the same core of the impact generated by LEQEMBI. What is QALY? That is explained in the middle. QALY equals the length of life of AD patients going forward, and quality of life level for each year of the length of their life. These two are multiplied to calculate QALY. So that means the QALY is a measure of the value of health outcomes for the AD patient's lifetime. If LEQEMBI is not added, and if they are treated with standard of care, in the United States, the QALY is calculated at 3.7.
But adding LEQEMBI to the treatment, 0.64 QALY will be gained. That means that 0.64 will be added. So simply put, in the Alzheimer's disease patients, the QALY could be increased by adding LEQEMBI by 17%. This is the value of LEQEMBI or impact by LEQEMBI. In Japan, although we use different numbers for the calculation, however, the incremental portion of QALY was exactly the same, 17% in Japan as well. And when we would like to monetize or translate this into a monetary value, we needed to put price tags. And a price tag is represented in willing to pay threshold or WTP threshold, which is provided at the top. If you are relieved from Alzheimer's disease for a year, how much would you be willing to pay?
Its range is from one to three times of the GDP per capita is usually applied. In the United States, AD or any such a serious disease, about two hundred thousand dollars will be applied as WTP. So with this time, price tag added, and then the impact could be represented in the monetary value. And then per patient, per annum, the value was calculated as $37,600. And from this, we calculated, derived the $26,500. And in December last year, 50 billion yen was financed through issuance of sustainability-linked loan. And at that time, KPIs used for the evaluation was the annual value created by LEQEMBI, $37,600 in the US, and the annual value of, in Japan, JPY 4.6 million, about JPY 4.6 million yen per year.
So sustainability-linked loan could be fluctuating, the interest rate for the sustainability-linked loan could fluctuate based upon these numbers. So when it comes to the financing, these values could be impactful. That's what I wanted to say today. Next, I would like to share with you successful upside events for LEQEMBI. Whatever business you are engaged in, in principle, you need to gain trust from the society, from the market. And in our case, we have to gain trust from patients and HCPs. So trust comes first. I'm sure this is applicable to any businesses. Then, where can we gain trust? Trust is based upon transparency and explainability. Only after we can gain these, we will be able to gain trust. Transparency in terms of the data transparency, pricing transparency, these are considered to be very important.
And in the Clarity AD trial at the CTAD, held in San Francisco in 2022, data from Clarity AD studies were published, and also on the same day, that data was published in New England Journal of Medicine. So doubly, we were, we ensured the trust. And when a launch was made, and then pricing was explained at the press conference by myself in January, and the simulation models were published in several papers, in peer-reviewed journals, and also for the pricing, we have explained based upon the transparency in Japan and as well as in the United States, there is no controversy regarding the pricing level. So once, we are able to ensure the transparency and the society is ready to accept that. So if we consider the wider scope of transparency, we can think about the board for business management.
Board consisting of the independent, directors as the majority of the membership of the board, with the transparent and objective view. And then the board's existence of such board can ensure transparency, therefore, that will be the basis for us to gain trust. Game changer or key factor one for increasing the value or value of LEQEMBI. First, to increase the number of NAS in the United States. You may wonder what NAS is. NAS stands for Neurology Account Specialist. In the go-to-market system in the United States, there are various functions, but we believe that NAS can play central role in that. The MR specializing in the neurology in this case, because a NAS means the MR or sales rep specializing in specific areas. But if you look down at the bottom, there are many stakeholders in the United States.
There are about four functions or four types of field force with different functions are engaged. In the end, information gathered in the field will be integrated at the NAS, and NAS will be representing the company in communication with the customers or healthcare providers. Therefore, NAS can play a role as a command center, and these NAS will be increased by 30%. We are in the midst of recruiting candidates. As we reported at the last meeting, we have already identified areas with large potential, so we are prioritizing those areas for assigning NAS. About half of the increase of NAS will be a headcount of people at Biogen. Therefore, this will lead to the enhancement of collaboration with Biogen Inc. Next, key factor 2 for increasing the value of LEQEMBI is to change dosage and administration.
IV long-term for 18 months and then 24 months. After this long-term administration IV, and then we are trying to get approval for IV maintenance treatment. And at that time, the dosage will be about halved. With this dosage and administration, we would like to get approval for IV maintenance treatment, for which we are about to submit soon. And in parallel, SC-AI, subcutaneous auto-injector formulation, will be utilized in the future. We would like to make such switch, and we anticipate that the same time, almost the same time, we will be able to get approval for this SC-AI. And in FY 2025, we would like to get approval for SC-AI for the entire treatment period, from the initial to through maintenance treatment of LEQEMBI.
We believe that these could be very significant key factors, because under the current pathway, infusion is quite a burdensome process. For the sake of infusion, people, in some cases, have to drive a car for several hours to get to the infusion center, and it requires a lot of workload by nurses. So by simplifying the infusion process, or in the case of SC-AI, a patient can administer treatment at the home or facilities, such as the nursing care facilities. The patients themselves or caregivers will be able to administer, therefore, this means that the pathway could be simplified significantly. So I believe that this will be very impactful.
Key factor number three is the wider usage of blood-based biomarker, or BBM. There are two things here. First, triage , this might be an unfamiliar word, but I think it is beginning to be used more commonly. This means that it can be used in pre-screening, and this has already started. And confirmatory use. For confirmatory testing in place of PET CSF. Aβ deposition, confirmatory testing with BBM. There are these two types of usages. And for triage use, the major objective is that the current BBM already is able to precisely detect Aβ negativity. In pre-screening, Aβ BBM will be used, and Aβ negative people will not have to proceed to PET CSF. This will streamline and simplify PET CSF related process. In confirmatory use, without PET CSF, by drawing blood, confirmatory testing can be done.
This will also be addressing the most burdensome part of the pathway. PET is costly, CSF is invasive procedure. It can be replaced by simpler, inexpensive BBM. If that is achieved in a major way, there will be an advancement of diagnosis and transformation of AD. $40 million investment, $50 million investment to C2N was announced on Wednesday. For confirmatory purposes, C2N is the top runner of BBM. One of the challenges of C2N is throughput. Specimens, samples in large volume cannot be processed because mass spectrometry is used for analysis, and there has to be a very large number of mass spec machines to process large number of specimens. And we would like C2N to invest in these equipment, and that is the reason for equity investment. We are making investment to support BBM.
Key factor 4 is primary care physicians or PCPs. Primary care physicians are expected to make full-scale entry into diagnosis and treatment of AD in around fiscal 2027. SC-AI, that I've mentioned, and BBM, if they are combined, this will be possible. Currently, in the AD market, it is a specialist market. Without neurologist, nothing can be started. Diagnosis and treatments are dependent on specialists. But with SC-AI, if treatment can be done at home or at care center, and if A-beta deposition can be confirmed easily with BBM, then PCPs, primary care physicians, can complete diagnosis to treatment. Alzheimer's diagnosis and treatment in will be very convenient and something that is very readily available. PCPs full entry into diagnosis and treatment will bring about such a major change. Key factor 5 is preclinical AD.
MCI, this, preclinical AD is a stage before MCI. Cognitive function deterioration is barely starting in preclinical AD stage, but A-beta accumulation has already started. This is the stage before MCI, perhaps 5 years to 10 years before MCI stage. Here, there are many people who are at this stage. At around 2030, it is expected that it will be over 400 million people who will be in that stage, and the number of people in this stage will be almost equal to early AD stage people. AHEAD 3-45 study is conducted currently jointly with ACTC, which is a clinical trial consortium in the United States, comprising around 6 major universities. Led by ACTC, Eisai together are conducting phase 3 study. Administration period is 2 years. This is a very large trial.
Towards target patient number, steadily, patients are being enrolled. BBM is already used as pre-screening test in this study. After the launch of LEQEMBI, there are many discussions of the effectiveness of LEQEMBI, and there is greater attention paid to AHEAD 3-45 study. We aim for approval in fiscal 2028. Key factor six is tau. Another major pathology of AD is tau. It is said that tau is the other major pathology in AD. You see schematic diagram. Within synapse, a tau will be aggregated. Similar to Aβ deposition, there is tau deposition. This is said to be the cause of Alzheimer's disease. Tau within the cell is difficult to trap. However, tau is propagated in intercellular space.
It is known that it propagates in intercellular space, and MTBR tau is the species of tau that are propagating in intercellular space. Elimination of these species by binding with antibody is the concept of E2814, and MTBR has four regions, as shown at the top, from R1 to R4, and the center of the toxicity are R2 and R4, and the antibody will be binding to these species. We believe that it can be a flagship, a drug on par with LEQEMBI. We believe that E2814 has such a potential. The origin of this academia lies in the academia, UCL, University College London, in the United Kingdom. Currently, development is mainly led by Washington University in St. Louis through collaborative research. Washington University was featured in a recent TV program the other day.
DIAN-TU or DIAD Familial Alzheimer's Disease Cohort is managed by Washington University with global headquarters located at the university. Familial Alzheimer's disease patients' data reside at Washington University in large number. Clinical trials are also conducted or can be conducted, and up to phase 2 studies have been carried out. As shown on bullet number 4, sporadic AD. In comparison to sporadic AD, tau-related biomarker profile has been confirmed to be equivalent in DIAD. In biomarker study, a proof of mechanism of E2814 was achieved, and this is a tau antibody that is the focus of attention these days. We aim for U.S. approval in fiscal 2030, and we would like to develop with that aim. This is showing a timeline of various key factors.
E2814 is not included in the population of AD. PCP participation, clinical AD, additional indication, these will be a major game changers, and various events leading up to those will also be important steps. LEQEMBI aim to change the future of AD. First of all, factor one is I aim to overcome two major pathology, pathologies. AD pathological finding is shown in the central photograph. Lecanemab will be removing A-beta aggregation shown on the left side and right side. A tau aggregation will be removed by E2814. PET-detected time of onset is shown for each. These two major pathologies, if they can be overcome, the future of AD will be transformed in a major way. AD can be a curable disease, a treatable disease with a possibility of curing in sight.
With these two drugs, we believe that we are able to open such a pathway. We hope to be able to do so. Factor two, to change the future of AD, is earlier time to initiate treatment. During the days of Aricept, treatment started in mild AD stage. 25 years later, in LEQEMBI, with LEQEMBI, initiation of treatment is starting at one stage earlier, at MCI. At the time of Aricept, as I recall, there was no concept of MCI. But if we are able to obtain indication for preclinical AD, we can move the treatment one step earlier. Earlier the start of the treatment, greater the efficacy. AD treatment is such that the earlier the initiation of treatment, the greater the effect size. That is known, and this will lead to greater efficacy.
Or if the pathology is eliminated in preclinical AD, progression to severe state may be prevented, or even a cure may become possible.
Factor three is, as I have mentioned, to simplify the diagnosis and treatment pathway. As you see at the top half, very heavily loaded prior pathway is existent. Without a specialist or neurologist, we are not able to run this pathway, but this amyloid beta testing could be done by BBM, or infusion can be changed to SC-AI, so that administration can be possible at homes and nursing care facility. That means that pathway could be significantly simplified, and the PCPs and attending physicians of the patients will be able to treat them. So a tremendous innovation can be brought about to AD treatment. The patient don't have to spend a lot of time to visit the hospitals, so this is considered to be a very important factor three for changing the future of AD. Now, I would like to share with you the current LEQEMBI efforts.
Currently, we are putting focus on the followings we would like to first promote establishment of the diagnosis and treatment pathway, because there is no such pathway. In traditional approval, traditional approval was obtained in April for LEQEMBI, and rushing into the market, there was no such pathway. We are the ones who need to work together with medical institutions to create pathway. We are now engaged in such very significant effort. Let me discuss this more in detail today. And another key focus is that we needed to promote understanding that the earlier initiation of the treatment is important, and also continued treatment is important, even after amyloid plaque removal is achieved, and this may yield the best outcome for the patients. We would like to share the deeper understanding of such. We have solid data supporting this.
When it comes to the early initiation of treatment, 60% of patients enrolled in the, the Clarity AD was MCI patients. So the largest population of MCI patients were enrolled in the trial in history. And the Tau PET substudy was conducted. Please recollect it. Low Tau subgroup study results were presented at the CTAD. Low Tau means the, the patients are in the earliest stage of MCI. These patients, with the treatment of LEQEMBI, could slow significantly the decline of cognitive functions, or in some cases, improvement was shown. For the first time in treatment of AD, there were responders who demonstrated improvement. So that was the nature of the study results. So the significance of starting treatment early, it could be supported by sufficient data or evidence.
After removing amyloid plaque and amyloid beta turns negative, is it all right for patients to discontinue treatment? Amyloid beta, as everybody knows, AD is a neurodegenerative disease, so AD is a progressive disease. So even after amyloid beta turns negative, can we really say that you are able to discontinue treatment? Do we have sufficient evidence to say that? We have sufficient data which suggests it is important to continue treatment. What is it? In phase 2 study, study 201, OLE, open label extension trial, provided that data because it was OLE. Therefore, all the patients in the study received the active drug. And those patients who turned the amyloid beta negative with LEQEMBI, there was a gap period of 2 years where they didn't receive any treatment.
Even during that time, biomarkers were tracked, and the amyloid beta deposition started to be seen. Amyloid beta 40 to 42 and p-tau showed the start, resumption of the accumulation of amyloid beta, and the CDR-SB also has shown the deterioration. Another is a study 201, open label extension, a phase 3 study, and the core study period was 18 months, but open label is now extended to, is now at, 24 and 30 months. Data from that suggests that the efficacy is sustained. There was no placebo, therefore, ADNI's data with patients with similar conditions were used to show the clear difference with the placebo. This was not published by ourselves, but academicians, academic specialists made a presentation on this.
So the improvement could be sustained at 24 and 30 months. So that data was presented at the academic conference, and we have such a data for supporting the continued treatment. Then establishment of the diagnosis and the treatment pathway. You may wonder what we are doing here, but establishment of the pathway in the United States requires so much effort, as you see here. Let me talk about it one by one, starting from the yellow box on the left. In the AD market in the United States, we have IDN, integrated delivery network, consisting of a large hospital network and community practices, neurology specialist clinics in community. So these are the two major markets. For both segments, you needed to get P&T, pharmacy and therapeutics approval. We also have the similar scheme in Japan.
So that is the place where the certain therapy will be adopted or not. And then data presented and a pricing is presented, and then at this P&T committee, they will decide to adopt LEQEMBI as a therapy to be used by the medical institution. That is the first step. As you see here, there are multiple stakeholders, professionals are engaged, after getting approval for adoption of the LEQEMBI, and next, it's the criteria for eligible patients, MMSE, and PET CSF, or either or both could be used for amyloid beta testing, APOE4 to be what is the methodology and infusion outside or in the hospitals, and ARIA monitoring, which MRI to be used, 1.5 Tesla or 3 Tesla.
Then based upon this policy or protocol of the particular site will be determined, and then pathway will be built. So how many chairs for infusion will be placed, and where did they have to be placed, and how much should be purchased? And all the conducts in the pathway need to be covered by the insurance, so reimbursement have to be confirmed as well. It's also a cumbersome process. Medicare's regional offices or MAC is the counterpart. The counterpart may be private insurers. After confirming the coverage, and then at last, going to the trial stage, a few patients will start to go through this pathway for receiving the treatment.
And once there is no problem, and infusion as well as the infusion reaction can be monitored, well, after confirming those, then lastly, full-scale introduction will be done so that a large number of patients can go through this pathway. So when we entered the market for the first time, there was nothing like this. We needed to play a role as a pioneer to develop all this, and that's what we have been doing so far. Eisai is the standard-bearer in the AD field. We are determined to forge a path for new treatments. We do not have a path before us, but we are going to create path behind us, like in the poem written by Takamura Kotaro. With that determination, we are working on the establishment of this pathway.
At the end of March, the number of doses administered at the end of the March, it's just a checkpoint, passing point. Even if there is a slight delay, as long as pathway is established steadily, we are not concerned at all. I am not concerned at all. This is what I wanted to convey to you strongly. Or rather, this mountain of, Alzheimer's disease, this mountain is now shaken and being moved. In that sense, I believe that the US four-field force is doing a great job. I would like to use data to support what I have said. The IDN, as I said earlier, IDN, I believe, is playing the leading role in the treatment for AD. Harvard and Duke and all other, big medical centers are under IDN.
Even in a single IDN, in some cases, 10 or 20 hospitals are covered. So LEQEMBI is used and adopted and prescribed, so that is very important to find the status of IDN. Therefore, establishment of a pathway at IDNs is the most important. AD was the target by the end of this fiscal year, and there are about 100 IDNs in the United States, and the progress rate will be about 90% because 72 will have established a pathway. The neurologists, we have conducted a questionnaire. "Do you think that you have established a pathway in the AD treatment you are engaged in?" And 80%, about 80% of them said that they have established pathway. Community practices still at, staying at the 60% progress rate.
But IDN, which is the most impactful, influential in the AD treatment, 90% is the progress rate. Therefore, in terms of that, our work is scaled from 0 to 1. I believe that we believe that 90% progress rate is an achievement. Now, turning to Japan, I believe that we are making a smooth introduction with LEQEMBI to market, because we are feeling very strong passion from neurologists in Japan for AD treatment. We are, they are completely complying with the OUG. As you see at the very bullet at the bottom, the all-case surveillance is obligatory. Therefore, all these facilities are collaborating for all-case surveillance, and there are about 300 facilities which are scheduled to cooperate for all-case surveillance.
University, hospital, and National medical institutions, number of facilities that plan to adopt LEQEMBI, 85, and 76 completed establishments of pathway, and 35 have started prescribing, and progress rate is about 40%. Core hospital, actually, many core hospitals have established a pathway, and a progress rate is about a little less than 30%. In Japan, it's just 50 working days after the launching, December. So establishment of pathway, introduction of LEQEMBI prescription progressed faster than expected, and approximately 3,500 physicians had a safety training for ARIA, and usually, it would have taken a lot more time to start prescription, but I believe that these physicians have a strong passion. At about 100 medical institutions, they accelerate the introduction of LEQEMBI by about 2 months. Now, third country where LEQEMBI is being launched is in China.
Manufacturing of LEQEMBI for China is now being promoted in a full-fledged manner. We believe that in July, a launch will be achieved. A pathway in China is going to be very different from those in Japan and the United States. First, at the screening, screening will be conducted through collaboration with other industries, insurers, and a medical examination industry, and nursing home industry. With these industries, we expect they will be able to play very important roles in a pathway. Commercial insurance forms a big industry in China. They're about to launch dementia care insurance, and this includes the benefits to reduce burden of cost of drug. With the power of the insurance industry, we expect them to provide opportunities for disease awareness and for screening. The medical examination industry is expanding rapidly.
They are expected to conduct the cognitive function test, and APOE4 testing, and the initial MRI testing. Nursing home is also growing, and where we expect them to conduct disease awareness and education, and early screening. For diagnosis, from initial stage, BBM will be utilized. PET and CSF availability is very low in China. There are several blood-based biomarkers which have been obtained approval. Based upon this, they are going to replace the amyloid beta testing with this BBM-based testing to be included in the pathway. Also, IV infusion and MRI or ARIA monitoring will stay the same, but online platform will be run.
As we have been reporting to you several times, there is an online platform for dementia called Easiit, which was established jointly with Jingdong Health under the Jingdong Group, which are Chinese GAFA. About 350,000 people are now using this Easiit, and it's about 6,000 physicians, specialists are registered on the platform. This is the online platform which is expanding and growing very rapidly. As you see in the arrows, amyloid beta test sites and infusion centers or specialists can be introduced on this online platform. Towards the right, this is to provide online reminder for follow-up consultation, LEQEMBI administration or MRI testing through Easiit. We would like to establish this kind of a pathway. Why do we think it is important?
Because China is, I'm sure, a huge market to roll out to other countries in Asia and Africa. For example, in India. This model here can be a powerful model or a mainstay model for other countries in Asia, such as India. So we would like to establish a such model here in China. Expanding potential. Early AD patients, estimated number currently is, 180 million. In 2032, this is estimated to, expand to 240 million. Yellow and orange part are characteristic. China, Asia, Latin America regions, in these regions, about 70% of, early AD patients are located, and, we have to do business in these regions to be successful. As for estimated number of AD-DMT eligible patients, currently, a little less than 20,000, mostly in the United States.
AD-DMT eligible patients who can be treated with AD-DMT currently there are about 17,000-18,000, mostly in the United States. In fiscal 2026, we estimate that to be about 400,000 people, close to 400,000. In fiscal 2032, 3.32 million people. Through a series of upside events that I've discussed, through which AD treatment will become more widespread. And with the simplified pathways, we expect patients receiving AD-DMT will increase, not only LEQEMBI, but other AD-DMT included. This is the estimated revenue of LEQEMBI. You might be interested in what happens at the end of this fiscal year.
At the forefront in Japan and the United States, all-out efforts are being made, and we would like to update you at the earnings report. But we are seeing a rapid ramp-up, both in the U.S. and Japan. In fiscal 2026, close to JPY 300 billion. In fiscal 2032, JPY 1.3 trillion is the estimated revenue through simulation. LEQEMBI's eAD party shown in red and pAD party shown in pink.
Preclinical is calculated with certain assumptions, and potential of JPY 1.6 trillion in revenue for fiscal 2032 is simulated. I would now like to turn to the topic of LENVIMA. In May last year, the U.S. court issued a decision favorable to Eisai for a patent suit filed by us in August 2015. The decision was favorable to Eisai, and since then, in August 2023, and this suit is against two generic companies. Usually in patent lawsuit, there are two contentious points. First is whether a patent is infringed or not by generic manufacturers, and the second point is whether the patent in question is valid, or whether there is inventiveness, which is a patent requirement.
Regarding infringement, the parties stipulated to infringement, and therefore, remaining issue is the validity of the patent. We believe that, we are very quite confident regarding the patent requirement being met, including inventiveness. Specialist report, IPD Analytics, made a report, recently on February 14, 2024. I will quote: "Eisai appears to have the advantage in defending the validity of the 393 and 547 patents." These two patents are high-purity LENVIMA patents, and, this is the state of the patent litigation concerning LENVIMA. Based on this, up to fiscal 2032, revenue is, simulated. Earlier, the LEQEMBI part, is included, in blue zone. Blue indicates other brands, including LENVIMA, and a certain LE extension, is, taken into account.
Potential of that is taken into account, and there are also 5 studies ongoing for LENVIMA, and that is also taken into account. DAYVIGO, BB1701, MORab-202, these are oncology ADCs using eribulin Halaven as payload. E7386, this is immuno-oncology resistant cancer treatment. E2814 is tau antibody that I've explained earlier. E2086 is orexin receptor antagonist. Rather, antagonist is DAYVIGO, and E2086 is agonist. This is developed for treatment of narcolepsy and et cetera. And we estimate the sales to be JPY 2 trillion in 2032. The period is divided into 2 phases, and I would like to invite our CFO, Mr. Shomon, to explain this part.
Thank you. I am Shomon, CFO. I would like to go over financial figures up to fiscal 2032, dividing the period into phase 1 and phase 2. Left side is between fiscal 2022-2026. This is the first phase where diagnostic and treatment pathway for LEQEMBI will be developed globally, and this is the preparatory period. We will not fall into short-termism, and we will be proactive, proactively making expenditures in LEQEMBI R&D and global commercialization, and to enlarge LENVIMA DAYVIGO sales, and to promote sales, and to develop, to invest in research and development of a next-generation pipeline of 2 ADCs using eribulin, and also into anti-MTBR tau antibody. We will be spending R&D spending of about 20% of sales.
As a result, in fiscal 2026, revenue of JPY 1 trillion, operating profit margin of around 10%, ROE of 10-year average of 8% are estimated. Next, between fiscal 2027 to fiscal 2032, this is the second phase, where pathway will be simplified and significant advancement is expected for AD treatment. This is the period to reaping the result of the investment. During this time, we expect resource allocation to be stable and profitability to be enhanced. Throughout this period, R&D spending and SG&A will be enlarged, but it will decline as a percentage of sales. As a result, fiscal 2032 estimation of revenue is over JPY 2 trillion, operating profit margin at 20% level, ROE of 25%, 10-year average of ROE of 15%, DOE of 15% are estimated.
As for shareholder return, we will continue our policy of not basing it on short-term PL, but on medium- to long-term balance sheet management and financial soundness on a continuous, stable basis. So far, we have used a majority, in the majority of our dividend to return value to shareholders. But because of rapid growth in performance, we will maintain the and enhance our dividend, while at the same time utilize share buyback to manage ROE. And if we feel that a market evaluation is extremely low, at the right conditions, we expect to carry out share buyback. As a way of returning value to shareholders, we did not deny the possibility of share buyback, but on this point, we would like to take stock once again.
In terms of ROE management, we believe that it is one way of implementing our management decision effectively. And if in unfortunate circumstance of our value not being properly evaluated by the market, and if the board believes that that is the case, then we would like to be able to exercise the option of share buyback. And that possibility is taken into consideration, and that is what I would like to convey to you today. I have two more slides, and please bear with me for a bit more. Future model dementia ecosystem, how will it look like? The red part in the middle is the platform where we would like to serve as a platformer. This shows dementia platform. MCI dementia-related challenges are faced by users, shown on the left.
There are solutions from Eisai and others that can address these challenges, and there are platform partners on the right side. We believe that we can be the platformer. The reason for that is LEQEMBI, Aricept, and E2814, promising tau antibody. We have the ability to develop these real medicines. That is one of the major reasons to consider that we have the potential to become the platformer, and through that, we have gained data. With the data, we are able to develop predictive engine to predict when the onset is and to predict the course of treatment. We are able to deploy services accordingly. Because of these two abilities, we believe Eisai can be a platformer.
As for the users of the platforms, they are healthy people, patients, caregivers, doctors, HCPs, medical institutions. They will purchase services, and services will be provided. Platform partners on the right side include partners from other industries, including insurance companies, automotive companies, food companies, and testing companies. Products and services from these companies can be put on the platform. There can also be some public sector partners, but these products and services can be put on the platform, and we are able to collect usage fee or advertisement fee. This is the final page, conclusion. By accumulating talents and technologies that efficiently generate returns and impact, we will continue to create fundamental treatments for two major diseases, Alzheimer's disease and refractory cancer, that reduce vitality in modern society.
Furthermore, we will be transforming into a disease ecosystem platformer that provides appropriate solution packages for people in all stages of life beyond drugs. Thank you for your patience.
Now, we would like to open the floor for Q&A session. After receiving questions from this venue, we would like to receive some questions from those who are attending online. Before asking your questions, please mention your name and affiliation. If you have any questions in this venue, please raise your hand. The person in the first row, please.
This is Hidemaru Yamaguchi of Citigroup. Thank you. Let me just check on the understanding of our facts, because I'm asked from investors all over the world, so I needed to find the answer. SC LEQEMBI submission will be done by the end of this fiscal year. That means that in this month, and I think the approval timing is roughly presented here. The timing for submission can be possible by the end of this month? This is my first question.
Dr. Lynn Kramer, are we going to... yes, so we'd like to have Dr. Kramer to respond to this question.
Yes. Hello, this is Lynn Kramer, the Chief Clinical Officer of Eisai. Thank you for the question. We are on track for filing the SC formulation this month and the IV maintenance dosing. So both of those filings are going in.
As scheduled. Yes, as planned. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Then in your presentation, you mentioned BBM changed from triage use to confirmatory use. So you also talked about the timing, perhaps in fiscal year 2026. And according to the presentation by AD, Sysmex, and I believe that they have a preparation, and that also AC is also obtained. And assuming that it will need further several years, and what will be the trigger or bottleneck for getting this approval?
So perhaps Dr. Kimura is going to respond to that question.
Thank you for your question. My name is Kimura. I am Global AD Officer.
Could you please speak into the microphone?
Blood-based biomarker to test the amyloid beta accumulation. Today, perhaps, Sysmex has made a presentation to explain this, not only through Sysmex, but also C2N into which we made investment. PET and CSF have shown a very high agreement with these blood BBM, and also the ROC AUC and the tau 0.5, very high agreement. Data in the publications which are available now are based on the clinical data or clinical trial data or cohort data such as those from ADNI. Very strictly controlled trial data are used. At the time of social implementation of these technologies, some people are concerned that at the various types of test centers under various conditions, and if measurement is done, and then the data could be reproducible or not.
Particularly, it would be okay at the testing, however, pre-analytics application of getting the blood and how the blood will be preserved and to be stored at the testing center sensor. All those pathways could be really managed well, and we are collaborating with Sysmex. We believe that the robustness in those processes have been confirmed, that we need to support that based upon the real world data. Maybe that is the request from the society and from the academia. In fiscal year 2026, we believe that we can use BBM for confirmatory use, because of the accumulation of the real world data, which will be convincing enough, and then, this will allow us to switch it from PET CSF to BBM. So time will be necessary in order to accumulate the data in the field, and that will suffice.
Understood. Thank you very much.
Next question from an attendee seated on the fourth row,
please. I'm Seiji Wakao from JP Morgan. First, about LENVIMA, patent litigation. Conclusion, I don't think, has been reached. When do you expect the conclusion? And when conclusion is reached, I believe that there are various options, including a settlement, and will you be releasing that information? As for patent extension, on slide 31, how many years of patent extension are incorporated in the assumption?
Legal aspect will be addressed by Mr. Takashi, and if there is additional comment, Dr. Owa will make additional comment. First, Mr. Takashi, please.
Thank you for your question. I'm Takashi, General Counsel. When is the conclusion expected? That was the question. The litigation itself is such that a trial date is yet to be set. On the other hand, as it was mentioned in the question, as for the possibility of a settlement, are we going to wait for a decision or are we going to settle? Of course, it is not certain yet. If the settlement proposal is reasonable, we can take it into consideration the possibility of settlement. If such an event occurs, we will immediately inform you. Thank you for your question.
In what part, how much was incorporated in this graph?
We are not able to discuss that.
I understand. That is incorporated in this graph, but in what way?
When we are able to do so, we will convey that information to you.
Why is that information incorporated in this timing? In the first quarter earnings call, you've mentioned that high purity patent, you're confident that you can include that in the numbers up to 2035. Yes, I was suspecting that there was a development that you are not able to disclose that warrants some calculation.
I'm not able to discuss that, but we believe that as far as guidance is concerned, if we consider April 2026 LOE, which is currently the case, it can be misguiding, and therefore, a possibility of extension of LOE is incorporated to a degree. Why the timing of now? That is the reason. Thank you. The second question, about SC. Maintenance regimen, I understand, but initial treatment, was this scheduled to be submitted before the end of the fiscal year?
It seems to be taking time, and according to what I've heard from IR people, those changes are also being considered. Lynn, please address that question. Dr. Lynn Kramer will answer that question.
Yes, thank you for that question. We are planning to submit first the maintenance dose, as is listed here in the middle, and then the initiation dose. We believe that the initiation dose will be at a lower dose and will optimize the patient experience with lower volume of injection, and so forth. So that's the reason why the two are at a different timing, and it has a number of benefits for the system and patient pre-optimization. So thank you.
So as pointed out, there is a possibility of changing the dose. The reason for changing the dose is that due to possibly a negative comment from FDA? No, no, no, that is not the case. Lower dose offers a greater benefit in our view.
Final question, you've also talked about possibility of share buyback. Currently, your share price is very low. Clarity AD study, if it succeeds, and although you're in the middle of developing a pathway, the share price has come down to a level lower than the pre-announcement days. And, over the short term, is there possibility of share buyback? Is that a correct understanding?
Mr. Shomon, would you like to address that question?
This is Shomon, CFO. Thank you for your question. We are considering various matters, but nothing has been decided yet.
Understood. Thank you.
When we have the right conditions.
The person in the first row, please have the floor.
My name is Hashiguchi. I'm from Daiwa Securities. I have two questions. First question is regarding the PCP to be playing the central role in the pathway. Regarding that future vision, according to the current guideline, they are not... It's not that they are not allowed, but rather they should not be engaged in those processes.
I think that there are several reasons, but one major reason is the AE or ARIA monitoring and control, and a safety issue. That process is not established well, therefore, I think that is the major reason. So suppose that for the PCPs to play central role, and then, you needed to identify the patients with potentially high risk of ARIA, and even the PCPs will be able to see the signs of the risk and, are able to respond to such risk. And I think that such monitoring methodology needs to be established.
How do you think? I'd like to get your take.
I believe your point is very important. As for ARIA, understanding ARIA, which is an online training program that Eisai has offered in the United States, we have been going through these programs very thoroughly. And so far, serious incidents of ARIA has not been observed. By educating HCPs regarding the risk of ARIA and homozygous patients with higher incidents of ARIA, is communicated to the attending physicians before starting administration.
That is required under the current label. That, I believe, has been implemented so thoroughly in the field. As Hashiguchi-san has pointed out, I believe that this is a very important point. So more than ever, we needed to establish the knowledge or expertise as regards to ARIA, so that PCPs will be able to get the enough level of awareness, and also ready to take a response to whatever incident may occur. But thinking about the current situation, I believe that these will be possible.
Thank you very much. My second question is the ramp-up speed by region. On page 28 and 29, the eligible patients and also sales or revenue by region, based upon these graphs. Relatively speaking, Japan seems to be expanding or ramping up, the LEQEMBI introduction rapidly, and after that, stabilizing. In China, the ramp-up speed is not so fast, but it will take up speed later on. So could you please explain the factors for behind these differences?
In China, although I couldn't touch upon this today, but there is a national drug reimbursement list. The timing to be listed on that is estimated to be in 2027. If that is the case, as you are aware, the number of accesses could be expanded by several folds, but there may be discount. Usually 80%, or in some cases, 95% discount may be allowed, therefore, the price will be dropping significantly. But we would like to have LEQEMBI listed on the NRDL, even if we see decline in the prices. But with the expansion of the number of accesses, we believe that we can make up for the decline in the price.
That is the case in China. For us, this is the innovation derived from Japan. We feel really strong support for this, so I believe that the ramp-up speed is faster in Japan. Mr. Yusa, could you please give us your comments, if there are any, regarding the ramp-up speed in Japan?
Yes, thank you for your question. I am in charge of LEQEMBI commercial in Japan. My name is Yusa. I would like to respond. Regarding the ramp-up speed in Japan, that was explained by CEO. On twentieth of December, LEQEMBI was launched in Japan. It's only a little less than 50 business days after the launch, but faster than our expectation. Pathway is being established, and also introduction of LEQEMBI is being made in prescription.
As we mentioned earlier, this is a very progressive disease, and particularly MCI is included in the scope of eligible patients. That is very important. With the conventional therapies, without diagnosis of dementia, the treatment could not be started, but with the diagnosis of MCI, patients are now able to get the treatment, so we are not able to keep patients waiting. So physicians and HCPs, medical institutions are thinking together in order to establish the pathway. As has been explained earlier, a coordination in the medical institution is really cumbersome in Japan as well. In reality, those hospitals which have established pathway and started the prescription, have established a working group in the hospital, and they are discussing how to start administration LEQEMBI. They are frequently holding such conference.
MRs or specialist, MRs from Eisai are participating in such meetings in order to collaborate for establishment of pathways. Thank you.
Next question, please.
I'm Sakai from UBS. About Japan, you have just described the situation. My question is on the United States. I believe U.S. is more advanced. After a patient is diagnosed as MCI, how long does it take until the actual treatment begins currently? And as Mr. Naito, CEO, as you mentioned, once a pathway is established, how fast can patients be rolled in and be on treatment? If you have some numbers, please.
Mr. Yasuno. Mr. Yasuno will address that question.
Thank you for your question. Can you hear me?
Yes, we can.
This is Yasuno speaking. I'm responsible for the United States. Patients visit medical institutions, and until they start receiving the treatment, depending on the medical institution and, depending on the region, it can vary. But before we had a launch, we thought that it may take between 6 months to 1 year. I believe many people believed that it may take 6 months to 1 year. But steadily, pathway treatment for diagnosis and treatment pathway are being developed, and the time is around a few months before the start of the treatment. It can be as early as 1-2 months before a patient receives treatment, and several months. And in some regions, it is a little longer, but steadily, the duration is becoming shorter.
Is your ideal one month, between diagnosis to the start of the treatment? Since, as it was just mentioned, it's a progressive disease, and earlier treatment is what you're advocating, do you have any target internally, of the time that it takes, between diagnosis, to treatment? Target may not be the right word. How long is considered ideal, between the time of, diagnosis to the start of treatment?
Mr. Yasuno, can you address that?
As soon as possible is what we would like to achieve. Target is when patients visit the clinic and receive testing and when results are available, smoothly, we would like to see the start of the treatment, and we will be making utmost efforts to achieve that. What is the status in Europe? CHMP's decision may be imminent. Is it going to be in March?
EU status will be addressed by Dr. Lynn Kramer.
Yes. Thank you for that question. We have what's called a SAG meeting, scientific advisory meeting, with the CHMP, the EU health authority, next week. We will be able to have a better understanding in March of when approval might occur. So we will have to update you after having that meeting. The following week, we have a second meeting with the CHMP to determine the next step. Thank you.
Does that mean that it is being delayed because of this SAG meeting?
Delay, I do not know if this can be characterized as a SAG. CHMP meeting will be held within this month, and the results will be conveyed to us within this month. So even if there is to be a delay, I don't think it will be as long as a quarter delay.
Thank you.
The person in the front row, please, on the floor.
My name is Mame Gamma from BOP Securities. Thank you for this opportunity. You have updated the revenue simulation for the medium to long term. I have a question about that. In fiscal year 2032, 1.3 trillion JPY is projected. And key factors that you mentioned, if they go well, as you anticipated, and then this number could be achievable. But this number could be seen as a little bit challenging. But do you think that in a business as usual course, do you think it's a pretty achievable number? So in near future, and in recently, you have said that establishment of a diagnosis and treatment pathway is being established smoothly.
Only for LEQEMBI? Pathway is being established smoothly or steadily, so the number of patients on treatment is behind the plan a little bit, but you will be able to catch up going forward.
Do you think that these numbers are achievable?
Yes. Before that, at each event, there is a simulation to see the increase in the number of patients. Can I have that slide? This is what you mentioned. All the events are upside events, and accordingly, we are expecting to see increase in the number of patients on LEQEMBI treatment. At each event, we have applied a very strict calculation of how much increase we are anticipating for each event, like 20% for this event or 40% with, for this event. So we accumulated these incremental portion of the number of patients to make these numbers. Therefore, it's not a reckless or numbers without a ground. So we have made these calculations and multiplied by price to make the sales projections. So please understand these numbers are quite logical numbers.
For these events, PCPs to be engaged in the treatment and diagnosis, can we say that for sure, in a full-scale manner, BBM will be allowed to be used and SC-AI will be introduced?
And then, without doubt, we believe that there will be a transformation of the healthcare in AD. I believe that there will be great benefits. With the additional of indication of a preclinical AD, it will be also impactful based upon these upside events. Based on the reasonable estimation of the increase in the potential patients on treatment, we came up with those numbers you mentioned.
Understood. Thank you very much.
We will be taking the next question, please.
Ueda from Goldman Sachs. About AD pathway development, I have a question. You are making a great effort to develop pathway, and what kind of competitive advantage is this going to lead? I'm sure there will be companies following with this competitive drug. Do you think that the competitors coming in will be disadvantageous or advantageous?
As for the competitors coming in, Mr. Keisuke Naito will answer.
About the competitors coming in, thank you very much for your question. As for the development of the pathway, and... So overall, setting aside the competitors coming in, we are strengthening pathways. As for more options, although it will mean that we have competition, but for patients and families, it will be beneficial to have more options. And for companies developing pathway, it will mean bigger market. So I believe that it will have a positive effect. So in terms of the impact on a pathway, that is my response to your question. In pharmaceutical business, people will not forget who initially drilled the water well. That is the experience on a number of occasions.
For example, we were a latecomer in contrast media, but we were not able to take away the market from the more established earlier entrants. I think you are concerned that our share might be eroded, but people will not forget who took pains and made efforts. So I think we have unwavering advantage there.
Thank you. Next, about LENVIMA patent, inventiveness, that you've mentioned. With regards to, patent, requirement, could you elaborate more on this high-purity patent? If it is valid, then... And if it is valid, I think it will be difficult for generics to develop products evading the infringement.
General Counsel will address that question.
Thank you for your question. As for the patent, this patent is about containing the level of impurity to below a certain level. And as you rightly pointed out, if this patent is valid, the entry of generics can be prevented. Thank you for your question.
Understood. Thank you very much.
Although we have used the time, but we have, one person raising a hand, online. Mr. Muraoka from Morgan Stanley, could you please unmute yourself?
Hello, this is, Muraoka of Morgan Stanley. Thank you very much for, calling me to speak. There are only two questions. One is about ARIA. This is about the science. When it comes to the ARIA monitoring, after resolving various issues, and I think that monitoring ARIA will pose a next, issue. MRI is currently used, I understand, but, methodologies to simplify this process, do you have any ideas which are visible?
Dr. Kimura, could you please respond?
Yes, I am a Global AD Officer, Kimura speaking. Thank you for your question. For ARIA monitoring, as you said, currently MRI is used for monitoring ARIA, and a first initial, test is conducted for monitoring.
Now, at academia, what is happening at the academic societies is based upon the clinical trial for lecanemab and other companies' trial, which are generating the samples and the data, and the real-world data will be used. And with the ARIA, if it occurs, and what biomarker movements we will see, and which biomarker will move, and based upon the genetic testing, and what will be the patient profile, which will who will pose the higher risk of ARIA. So based upon this, research will be continued. And ARIA incidence is low and also controlled in the field, therefore, I don't know how fast this research will proceed.
But in the future, without using MRI, but the monitoring could be conducted based on the biomarker or blood or genetics, and, risk, will be captured, and also, even before the onset, the monitoring could be possible. Thank you for you r question.
Thank you. So specifically, which markers, could be used? Are there any specific names of the biomarkers which can be used as candidate markers?
BBB should be broken, and also the, blood vessels, markers are, are raised as the candidate, but we needed to use the human samples to verify these candidates, so we have not identified, the specific ones.
Last question is about the share buyback. Based upon the balance sheet, the JPY 280 billion in cash is, recorded on your balance sheet.
So if you decided to do the share buyback, to what extent do you think it'll be allowed, to buy back your shares?
We would like to refrain from answering that question.
Okay, understood. Thank you.
Thank you very much. Then with this, we would like to conclude.