NSK Ltd. (TYO:6471)
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May 7, 2026, 3:30 PM JST
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Earnings Call: Q4 2024

May 15, 2024

Akitoshi Ichii
President and CEO, NSK Limited

Thank you for joining us. I am Akitoshi Ichii, President and CEO of NSK Ltd. Today, I would like to outline NSK's business results for fiscal 2023, the full year forecast for fiscal 2024, and progress on and new targets for our midterm management plan, MTP2026. Let's begin with page four, which explains the key points of fiscal 2023. In the industrial machinery business, we had lackluster results. We expected a recovery in the second half of the year, but unfortunately, the demand adjustment phase continued, including in China. In the automotive business, sales were robust, supported by the alleviation of semiconductor shortages, but Japanese manufacturers somewhat struggled in China. Overall, consolidated sales were JPY 788.9 billion. Operating income was JPY 27.4 billion, or 3.5%, and ROE was 1.3%.

Sales increased and profits declined year-on-year. Increasing profitability to our target level remains an issue. With a Net D/E ratio of 0.26, the company was able to maintain its financial health. The annual dividend was 30 JPY per share, as planned. In addition, we bought back 25 million shares at a total cost of JPY 21.7 billion and canceled 51 million shares of treasury stock. The company also made rapid progress in reducing its cross-shareholdings, which is now just 5.5%. Next, we will look at page five. Here we show the key figures for the full year consolidated results. Sales increased by JPY 12.1 billion, but excluding foreign exchange and transferring increasing costs to sales prices, sales actually decreased by about JPY 30 billion.

The slight downturn in the industrial machinery business had a negative impact, resulting in lower sales and profits than forecast. Net income of JPY 8.5 billion reflects the reversal of deferred tax assets of JPY 3.8 billion in Europe. Next, looking at page six, the V chart explains the JPY 16.4 billion decrease in operating income year-on-year. As shown in the chart, the effect of the yen's depreciation added JPY 7.1 billion, but the decrease in profit due to the volume and mix of goods was JPY 26.8 billion, a significant decrease year-on-year. Volume and mix is the biggest factor. To break down volume and mix, excluding the effects of increases to sales prices and exchange rates, the automotive business added JPY 30 billion, while the industrial machinery business subtracted JPY 60 billion, weighing heavily on our mix.

In terms of transferring inflation or rising costs to sales prices, we achieved results as planned. Cost reductions and productivity improvements more than offset the increase in costs. Next, on page seven, looking at the results by business segment, the full year results for the industrial machinery business were sales of JPY 344.8 billion, and JPY 8 billion in segment income, or 2.3%. Year-on-year sales decreased by JPY 40.3 billion, and segment income decreased by JPY 27.5 billion. In the fourth quarter, sales rose to JPY 89.9 billion and profit to 2.6%, indicating that we appear to have passed the bottom in the third quarter. Next, looking at page eight, I'll outline the automotive business.

Sales and profits improved with increased global automotive production volume, partly driven by a recovery from the previous year's semiconductor shortage. Sales amounted to JPY 408.8 billion, and segment income at JPY 18.6 billion, or 4.5%. Year-on-year sales increased by JPY 49.4 billion, and segment income by JPY 12.2 billion. In the fourth quarter, sales and profits decreased due to the impact of the decline in automotive production volume. Next, we will look at page 10 with the full year forecast for fiscal 2024, which is the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025.

To touch on the key points of the forecast, first, with regard to volume, we assume that the industrial machinery business will expand sales and that inventory adjustments will settle in the first half, followed by a gradual recovery in capital expenditure and other areas from the second half. We believe that global automotive production volume will be 90 million vehicles, which is almost unchanged from the fiscal 2023 result. Our figures here have included a one-time expense of JPY 5 billion related to structural reforms in Europe as a measure to improve profitability. Overall, we forecast sales of JPY 820 billion, operating income of JPY 36 billion, or 4.4%, and ROE of 3%. Although our recovery is not where we would like it to be, the plan is to target operating income of 5%, excluding one-time expenses.

Our exchange rate assumptions are JPY 145 to the US dollar, JPY 155 to the euro, and JPY 20 to the Chinese yuan. We plan capital expenditure of JPY 60 billion over the year and an annual dividend of JPY 34 per share, an increase of 4 JPY per share, with interim and year-end dividends, each at 17 JPY per share. In addition to the target dividend payout ratio of 30%-50%, we will adopt a dividend on equity, DOE policy from this fiscal year as our guideline for stable dividends, with a DOE lower limit of 2.5%.... Next, looking at page 11, we have the forecast figures for the full year.

Here you can see we forecast a year-on-year increase in operating income of JPY 8.6 billion on a JPY 31.1 billion increase in sales. I will explain this more in detail on the next page. Looking at page 12, we have the factors behind change in operating income. Looking at the column for inflation and labor costs and the column for transfer of costs, you can see we forecast that we will be able to offset inflation and labor costs, including transportation and procurement costs, by transferring these increasing costs to sales prices within the year. This is a key assumption of our forecast. As for volume and mix, we forecast an increase of JPY 9.5 billion, driven by an increase in volume, mainly from a recovery of industrial machinery sales in the second half of the year.

The increase in costs category, showing an impact of JPY 3.5 billion, is largely an increase in digital transformation and technology development costs. But in the cost reduction category, we will work to add JPY 7.5 billion by combining the effects of structural reforms and other measures, in addition to conventional productivity improvement, value engineering, and other cost reduction initiatives. Overall, in terms of cost increases and cost reductions, we forecast a net positive gain of JPY 4 billion from our improvements. On the right, you can see we estimate one-time expenses of JPY 5 billion for structural reforms in the current fiscal year. We have decided to undertake the structural reform from this year, but the effects will show from the following year.

Next, looking at page thirteen, the industrial machinery business is expected to post a year-on-year increase in both sales and profits, with sales of JPY 378 billion and segment income of JPY 19 billion, or 5%. Again, the assumption is that inventory adjustment in the market will largely end in the first half of the period, and demand recovery will begin from the second half. In addition to these efforts, we intend to expand sales, especially in the aftermarket. For the automotive business, we assuming global production volume of 90 million vehicles, sales are forecast at JPY 405 billion and segment profit of JPY 18 billion, or 4.4%.

The segment income of each segment appears to have fallen below 5%, but the figures factor in one-time expenses, so excluding these expenses, we expect to recover operating income up to the 5% level. Next, on page 15, I would like to elaborate on our progress in our midterm management plan, MTP2026, and the new targets we have set for fiscal 2026. Under MTP2026, which covers the five-year period from fiscal 2022 to 2026, NSK is currently working on three key management tasks and aiming to build a foundation to remain needed, trusted, and relied upon for the next 10 years and even the next 100 years by integrating tribology, one of NSK's core technologies, with digital technology. The first key management task is ESG management, which aligns with our four core values of safety, quality, community, environment, and compliance.

The second task is enhancement of managerial resources, which is to strengthen and transform management resources through the use of digital technology. This is being done in production, engineering, and administration, as well as through human resource development. The third and final task is growth with profitability. However, as I have reported earlier, in terms of profitable growth, we have not achieved our targets due to the sluggish market and the emergence of new challenges deriving from changes in the business environment. Accordingly, we believe new issues have emerged that we must tackle in the midterm. Looking at page 16, you can see our standing at the halfway point of MTP2026. In the industrial machinery business in fiscal 2022, the first year of MTP2026, we achieved record sales. However, the market slowed down from the second half of that year, and demand adjustment is still continuing.

In addition, the slump in the Chinese market has had a significant impact on our bottom line. Looking at 2023, NSK's sales declined more than 14% in real terms, and although we expect the market to pick up in the second half of this fiscal year, we feel that we are about 10% our midterm plan sales target. In terms of global automotive production, our initial plan for 2026 was for production to recover to the pre-COVID level of 98 million vehicles. Although progress has been made in resolving the semiconductor shortages, unfortunately, market recovery has been weak, and in light of the current situation, we have decided to revise down our assumption to 92 million vehicles a year.

In August 2023, we transitioned the steering business to be a joint venture with JIS, making it an equity method affiliate, which also requires us to adjust our consolidated targets. In other words, in response to the change in business environment, we have come to the conclusion that it is necessary to review MTP2026 as we begin working on the remaining three years. Looking at page 17, unfortunately, we have revised down our midterm targets to JPY 900 billion sales, JPY 75 billion operating income, or 8%, ROE of 8%, and ROIC of 6%. This is down from the initial targets of JPY 1 trillion sales, 10% operating income, 10% ROE, and 8% ROIC.

As shown in the V chart on the right, the difference from the original plan is the result of the decrease in sales and deterioration of our profit structure due to the impact of the decrease in volume caused by the slowdown in market growth. The V chart also shows the impact of our initiatives responding to the decrease in sales and the impact of the depreciation of the yen. To reiterate, income or loss from the steering business is excluded from the new midterm targets. With regard to sales, we would like to maintain the targets of the original midterm plan for the industrial machinery and automotive businesses, excluding steering, but taking into account foreign exchange rates, sales price increases, and sales expansion.

The industrial machinery business segment income target was revised downward from 13%- 10% due to the significant impact of the decline in real volume. In automotive, although there is a decrease in volume, we will maintain our 7% segment income target. Next, on page 18, we have initiatives in MTP2026 that will bear fruit even beyond 2026, such as various digital transformation projects and the ultra-stabilization of production. Of course, we will begin reaping benefits of these projects through 2026, but that is not the end of it, and we will reap further benefits from these projects even after 2026. We expect to reap a further JPY 10 billion after the midterm period, and these initiatives will also drive toward achieving 10% operating income and 10% ROE, our original MTP targets.

Looking at page 19, I will explain the management policy for the second half of MTP 2026. In the second half, from fiscal 2024 to 2026, we will improve on improving profitability as our top priority toward the recovery of our profit structure, especially in Europe and our E&E business, as well as through sales growth and business portfolio improvement. As you can see here, in terms of growth and expansion, we will improve our sales portfolio, growing our industrial machinery business, mainly in the aftermarket. In the automotive business, we will continue to work to add value and increase market share, be it in EVs or in other new projects. In addition, we will also bring new products to market, which we have been working on in MTP 2026 as a driver of growth and expansion. In order to improve the company...

In order to improve the company's profit structure, we will continue our efforts for digital transformation in the midterm, and on the manufacturing side, we will promote labor reduction through productivity improvements and streamlining of indirect personnel, including through the initiative for the Ultra-stabilization of production. As for inflation, our policy is to reflect increasing costs in our sales prices, and in this second half of the MTP, we will further move to reflect increasing labor costs in sales prices as well. We will also focus on business areas which have deteriorated amid the market downturn of the past year or two, and on structural reforms in Europe. As I have said before, the main thrust of our efforts in the second half of the midterm plan is to execute this plan and complete it. Next, we will look at page 20.

Starting from the operating income of JPY 27.4 billion in fiscal 2023, growth is expected to recover alongside the market at an annual rate of 3%-4%, plus sales expansion for an increase of JPY 40 billion over three years, including portfolio improvement. In terms of fixed cost reductions, we will work to achieve an improvement of JPY 25 billion, exceeding the increasing costs of JPY 15 billion for DX, new technology, and other areas. Specifically, labor-saving effects from DX and plant productivity will account for JPY 6 billion and structural reforms and production reorganization for JPY 9 billion. Value engineering and cost reductions will add up to JPY 10 billion over three years.

As for the effects of structural reforms and production reorganization, as described on the page, the plan is for one-time expenses of JPY 6 billion over two years, reaping the benefits in phases, aiming for a total of JPY 9 billion by the third year or fiscal 2026. Looking at page 21, as for sales in the industrial machinery business, although demand has declined substantially, the sales target of JPY 450 billion will be maintained, and we will aim for the industrial machinery business to account for 50% of our sales portfolio, taking into account the impact of foreign exchange rates and transferring increasing costs to sales prices. We have revised down our target for profitability due to the decrease in volume.

Over the next three years, we will first work to achieve a double-digit 10% or more segment income by expanding sales, mainly in the aftermarket, and improving profitability through the reorganization of production in the E&E business. Over the next three years, we will first work to achieve a double-digit 10% or more segment income by expanding sales, mainly in the aftermarket, and improving profitability through the reorganization of production in the E&E business. Continuing on page 22. As you can see on the upper left, we are working to increase added value. As you can see in the upper left, we are working to increase added value by differentiating our OEM products and expanding sales in the aftermarket, especially in North America, in collaboration with distributors and in the wind turbine repair market. In the European region, we are expanding our sales resources in Eastern Europe.

Also, although not mentioned here, the expansion of sales channels in India is also planned. For CMS, we are expanding our customer segments or client base from wind turbines to also include pharmaceuticals, steel, and pulp and paper, and we intend to leverage this growth to achieve synergies with aftermarket sales. In precision products, we believe that the recovery of the semiconductor manufacturing equipment market will steadily progress from the end of this fiscal year. Since we have sufficient supply capacity at present, we are aiming for growth with profitability, including through quick delivery service and high value-added products. We will also thoroughly improve the profit structure in the E&E segment. Next, on page 23, we will look at the automotive business. This page reflects the accelerating shift to EVs and hybrids in the automotive market, as well as a slowdown in growth.

But as with industrial machinery, a decline in real sales as a result of volume is inevitable. However, we will stick to our initial target of JPY 410 billion, taking into account foreign exchange rates, higher selling prices, and other factors. We will also maintain our target of 7% segment income. Looking at our current progress, we have been able to improve on the E-axle and wheel bearing projects for EV by differentiating our technologies and adding value, and by receiving a high share of orders at our target price. In addition, we will continue to grow our new product, ball screws for electric hydraulic brakes, to a scale of JPY 30 billion over the midterm plan.

Although there are some risks at the moment, such as a slight stall in the shift to EVs and the startup conditions for new projects, we are committed to achieving our original segment income target of 7%, including the effects of production restructuring. Next, on page 24, we have financial strategy and cash allocation. This is also unchanged from what was originally planned. We aim to realize stable shareholder returns and investment in sustainable growth and profitability. In terms of our ability to generate profits, we are still slightly under the MTP target. However, under our policy of reducing cross-held shares to zero, we will generate JPY 400 billion-JPY 500 billion in cash, which is more than enough.

In addition to the dividend payout ratio of 30%-50% that we initially announced, we have now set a target of 2.5% DOE, which means that we are aiming for stable dividends and improvement in this area as well, while also working to improve profitability. Although we have not incorporated specific share buybacks in our announcement, we intend to implement them flexibly and steadily, aiming to return more than JPY 100 billion to shareholders over a 5-year period. As shown on the page, the capital expenditure amount has been revised from JPY 350 billion to JPY 280 billion to reflect changes in the business environment. In order to strengthen our management resources for the future, we intend to continue to implement investment into digital transformation and technology that we are currently working on or as originally planned.

Moving to page 25, grow new products. Under the policy of Bearings & Beyond, NSK has been pursuing core technologies and increasing competitiveness and added value, especially for NSK number one products. For new products, we are aiming for a scale of sales of JPY 50 billion by the end of the midterm plan. And at the current rate of progress, we think we are about 80% of the way there. We are taking a two-prong approach in new products. The first side is system products based on electric drive and control technologies, which are our strong points, and target robotics, medical, biotechnology, and electrification sectors. One key aim here is increasing our value added. The second is to create a PLM business model using condition monitoring diagnostic technology.

We will not only focus on the conventional life cycle of OEM orders and the aftermarket, but we will also create a cyclical business model that includes diagnostics, repairs, and maintenance. We will continue these efforts not only in the midterm, but also post-2026. Moving to page 26, we have a summary of our midterm initiatives. The midterm plan covers the five-year period of 2022 - 2026, but the initiatives are positioned not only for the five-year period, but also beyond that, towards 2030. Our goal is to increase corporate value through Bearings & Beyond, Digital Transformation, and Change & Go Beyond in order to achieve growth with profitability and create a corporate culture that supports this growth. Our numerical management goals are to achieve ROE of 10%, ROIC of 8% or higher, and the ability to do so stably and reliably.

We believe that it is necessary to gear our efforts toward ongoing continuous growth. With Bearings & Beyond, we will improve our portfolio and expand the applications of our core technologies and increase the value we add. We will expand businesses through synergies between services and aftermarket by engaging a PLM business model. We will aim to achieve sustainable growth and stabilize and improve profitability through the creation of new products. In digital transformation, we aim to achieve number one quality and reliability through the use of digital technology, and towards this, are implementing the digital transformation of production, technology, and business management, aiming not only for productivity, but also for added value and increased competitiveness of products and services. We believe that these efforts will not only lead to cost reductions, but also to a more resilient structure that can withstand fluctuations in volume and improve capital efficiency.

We will continue to create a working environment and a climate that encourages employees to take on the challenge of achieving high future-oriented goals that challenge them to change and go beyond. We will take on the remaining three years of the midterm plan with an eye on making the most of opportunities that lie ahead. The last page, page 27, is for your reference. We have organized the three key management tasks and materiality that we will address in the midterm. This concludes our presentation. Thank you.

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