Earnings Call: Q4 2021

May 10, 2021

Good afternoon, everybody. I am President and CEO, Izumisawa. Thank you very much for participating in our financial results as well as 2021 MPTV progress report. We are in the midst of COVID-nineteen, and thus, we are holding this conference through the remote mechanism. As mentioned by Mr. Inoue, Mr. Kozawa, our CFO, will be talking about FY 'twenty performance results as well as forecast for FY 'twenty one. Then afterwards, I will take the microphone, and I will talk about the progress of 2021 MTDP, which was announced last October. Regarding FY 2020, regarding the revenue as well as profit attributable to the owners of the parent, we were able to achieve the forecast. For 2021 MTBT, we are going to focus on the growth. And regarding the energy, we are going to talk about what is the undertaking that we are taking regarding the development and growth areas as well as strengthening profitability. Now Mr. Kozawa, please. Thank you very much for your introduction. My name is Shisato Kozawa. We have already released the materials, so I will just highlight the main points and supplement some further explanation. Please take a look at Slides 45. This is the overview of the performance results. And if you can kindly look at 45 together, I will appreciate it. Order intake and revenue were decreased year on year but are in line with our budget. Nuclear Power and Defense and Space were robust throughout the year. Logistics, Thermal and Driver Systems continued to recover after bottoming out in Q1. Regarding the impact of COVID-nineteen, logistics, thermal and drive systems continued to recover since Q2. And in Q4, it was flat year on year. Meanwhile, negative impact is still left in some BTO business such as plants as well as commercial aircraft. Details will be given in Slide 13. Both profit for business activities and profit attributable to owners of parent achieved our forecast. Business profit was up year on year, while profit attributable to owners of parent was down year on year due to the repercussion of posting DTA for the past losses incurred in space jet business before FY 'eighteen and FY 'nineteen. Slide 6 and 7 show our financial position. Our management is focused on cash flow, and we have been working to optimize our asset. In FY 'twenty, we restructured offshore wind power JV with Vistas of Denmark and made MHPS 100 percent subsidiary and optimized our portfolio management. As a result, total asset decreased by JPY 174,900,000,000. Details will come later, but please note that due to the improvement of free cash flow, interest bearing debt was below our target. And given the bullish market, valuation improved and equity ratio landed at 28.4%, a major improvement year on year. Slide 8, cash flow. In FY 2020, there was an outflow of advanced payments from the past, which was further aggravated by a decrease in revenue due to the pandemic. Thus, free cash flow was negative JPY277,100,000,000. However, by improving the payment T and C of each project, an improvement of JPY 120,000,000,000 against the forecast was achieved. Slide 9. Order intake and backlog by segment. For your reference, please note that Slide 58 shows the details. Each segment's order intake decreased year on year. Some businesses such as aircraft and logistics, thermal and drive systems were directly hit by the market contraction caused by COVID-nineteen, while our planned project negotiations have been postponed. Page 10, revenue. Energy and Aircraft Defense and Space were flat year on year. Wire plants and infrastructure systems and logistics, thermal and drive systems were down year on year. Slide 11, the business profit by segment. Only air defense and space segment increased year on year, succeeding in reducing loss, while commercial aircraft plummeted, we were able to dramatically reduce basejet loss. Please look at the details at your leisure. Slide 12, profit bridge. Far left shows Spacejet related loss of minus JPY 263,300,000,000 recorded in FY 2019. Excluding Spacejet, profit was JPY 233,800,000,000. Far right shows FY 2020 profit. Spacejet related loss was JPY 116 200,000,000. Excluding it, profit was JPY 170,300,000,000. Our forecast was JPY 170,000,000,000, so we have landed as planned. As for Spacejet related business, in 2019, impairment losses from assets invested prior to 2018 amounting to JPY 122,400,000,000 were included. And in fiscal 2020, requirement of CRJ, goodwill losses were tentatively acknowledged and this has been included as JPY 60,000,000,000. Business earnings fluctuation factors have been explained, so I will omit the details. The 3rd bar from the left, this shows commercial aircraft as well as logistics, thermal and drive systems. And I would like to use the next slide to explain the impact of COVID-nineteen. Let us now turn to Page 13. So this slide, when we explained a year ago at the beginning of the fiscal year, we assumed the impact of COVID and we have added on a quarterly basis the progress. For commercial aircraft Tier 1, this is basically aircraft supply to Boeing and for the full year, total was below the initial forecast. There was drastic improvements through quarter 1 and quarter 2. However, thereafter, it turned sluggish and this continued into the Q4. As for aero engines, we were within the bottom line that we estimated for Q1, and there was a slight uptake in Q2. And for the full year, we are on par with initial forecast. For logistics, thermal and direct systems, the Q1 hit bottom and thereafter, quarter 2 and onwards, we have been seeing an improvement trajectory. For the Q4, we have been able to exceed the initial forecast. On Slide 14, this shows the summary of fiscal 2020 results. For order intake, there have been some delays in business negotiations, so we were under the forecast. However, our revenue was according to the forecast, and we were able to exceed the profit forecast as well. Free cash flow is still negative. However, we are seeing improvements on the balance sheet. We are now focusing on areas where we can exert our strength. And as you can see here, we have been progressing with the reshuffling of our business portfolio. Energy transition is our main focus, and we have been investing in venture companies as well and to make sure that we execute investments in the mid- to long term. Such initiatives will be carried out in the future as well. So this will conclude my explanation for the FY 2020 results. Let me now move on to FY 2021 forecast. So I would like to skip a few pages and move on to Slide 18 first. For 2021, for order intake, JPY 3,600,000,000,000 revenue, JPY 3,750,000,000,000 profit from business activities, JPY 150,000,000,000 profit attributable to owners of parent JPY 90,000,000,000 free cash flow plus 0 is the plan. For each of the items, you can note that there has been major improvements from 2020 fiscal year. Now if you can move back to Slide 16. On Slide 16, you see fiscal 2020 results, fiscal year 2021 as well as fiscal 2023 under the 2021 MPBP. So our focus now because this is the 1st year of the MTBP, we would like to embrace this year in preparation to embrace the fun year of the MTBP. We will sustain a healthy financial state, focus on profit indices such as business profit margin ROE and as for dividend payout from the 20,200,000 yen 75 yen we would like to increase this to yen 90 yen Moving on to the next slide, which is Slide 17. You see the business profit margin for fiscal year 2020 as well as the forecast for FY 2021 and the differences. On the very left, you see the 2020 business profit margin, which is KRW 54,000,000,000. This is the starting line. There has been share transfer gain from the sale of NVOW as well as gain on land sales as well as steam power loss provisions. So we have excluded such nonrecurring items. And at the same time, we have reflected the pause on space jet initiative. And so the base PL is JPY 92,000,000,000. Now from here on improvements for 2021. Logistics, Thermal and Drive Systems, approximately JPY 30,000,000,000 recovery for existing businesses growth as well as suppressing fixed cost. This will allow us to enjoy a JPY 28,000,000,000 improvement. On Slide 19, we show the breakdown of order intake profit, revenue and profit from business activities. So this will conclude my explanation. Thank you. I would now like to hand it over to Izumisawa to explain the MTBP progress. Now this is Izumisawa again. I would like to walk you through the progress of 2021 MTBB. Page 21, this is the mission of MHI. We integrate cutting edge technology into expertise built up over many years to provide solutions to the world's most pressing issues and provide better lives. Please turn to Page 22. In 21 MPB, we focused on growth areas and strength and profitability. As you can see, growth, profitability, dividends and financial stability are 4 KPIs that we uphold to pursue our plan. Please turn to Page 23. Firstly, how are we going to work on growth? By 'twenty three, we want to have the revenue of JPY 100,000,000,000 and by FY 'thirty, we want to increase revenue to the level of JPY 1,000,000,000,000. Please turn to Page 2425. This shows acceleration of decarbonization initiatives. You see Japan, U. S, China, EU and U. K. Situation. For 2,030 GHG emissions, there are targets already defined. These are very challenging targets. But in order to overcome this challenge, MHI will fully leverage on our workforce as well as technology to contribute to this end. Page 26. Initiatives on carbon neutrality. To realize carbon neutrality, we have short term and mid- to long term activities. Short term wise, we need to enlarge reusable energy and come up with the infrastructure that will contribute to decarbonization. SCO2 capture as well as usage of hydrogen will be the mid- to long term initiatives. So you will see the activities that we are upholding on Pages 2728. Right now, I repeat myself, we are trying to increase the renewable energy. Having said that, electricity is a must for our day to day living, including that of industrial activities. We need to reduce the social expense related to energy, and that is the goal that we have to attain. We need to have the stable energy source so we can decarbonize the existing thermal power. I would like to talk about Page 29, which is decarbonization of thermal power. We have the demonstration of ammonium using carbon free boilers. And we have as a demonstration of 30% H2 mix combustion commercialization. And so instead of having any major modification, we can use hydrogen and can be commercialized sometime in 2025. And for small and midsized gas turbines, we are developing new technology as well as thermal mechanism to realize 100 percent hydrogen firing. And by 2,030, we want to have 100% realization of commercialization of H2 firing. Ammonia is under development as well. And after the demonstration, we want to commercialize that sometime in 2025. We have a new installed base as well as the existing infrastructure can be modified so that we can fully leverage on the existing footprint as well as work on decarbonization. Page 30. So in Takasago area of Mitsubishi Power, we have the demonstration, design and manufacturing facility in one site. So in terms of the power, meaning the firing, we have the facility to demonstrate that and manufacture that. And on the left, we have the demonstration plan so that we will be able to validate what has been achieved in R and D as well as design. We want to validate the structure so that reliability can be enhanced. Page 31. Now let me move on to Nuclear Power. As you see on the left, the blue circles, we have 12 PWR plants, and we are supporting a restart of such plants. And also to complete the construction of nuclear fuel reprocessing and MOX processing plant, we are working to complete this as well as the lead company. If you move to the right, on top of such plant restarts, we are focusing on reinforcing safety measures, the best in the world. We will be leveraging our existing insight to focus on increasing resilience to natural disasters. Moving on to Page 32. This shows us the mid to long term path of carbon neutrality. If you move on to Page 33, this depicts our building of a hydrogen solutions ecosystem. To establish such a hydrogen solution systems, we have to cover production, transport and storage. This does mean that we have to cover many technical facets to manifest this. I have explained the technology that we will be utilizing to produce hydrogen. We have gray, blue and green. So there are many types of technologies that have been developed as well as proposed. So as MHI Group, we will be collaborating with such developing companies to further scale up. And in the area of the industry, we have a plant that focuses on the hydrogen as well. And by 2025, we would like to solidify the technology surrounding hydrogen and further create a system to enhance commercialization and operations. Moving on to Page 34, this is the CO2 solutions ecosystem for CO2 as well recovery as well as transport and the conversion also has to be covered throughout the ecosystem. As you are already aware, we have the largest carbon capture facility in the world. And we will further now focus on higher efficiency of such plants. And for the industry, we would like to create and further enhance our commercial usage plants as well. So for CO2 capture, there are many inquiries from the industry as well, and we would like to accommodate such inquiries as much as possible. Now to establish such an ecosystem, we do have to focus on various aspects. Just the other day, we made the announcement of a transparent CO2 Connect platform and this is in conjunction with IBM and this will allow the value chain visualization. And for the future, if CO2 base, a fuel system as well will be a focus. So for CO2 and for hydrogen, large scale as well as a wide variety of insight and knowledge is needed. And depending on the location of usage, the specifications will differ. So once again, for NHI Group, we will not just focus on a stand alone solution, we will focus on various locations that are pioneering the way and accommodate such needs and wants. As you can note on the map on Page 35, the European countries as well as North America as well as Australia in each of these respective regions, CO2 and hydrogen businesses are underway and we are in participation in various businesses throughout these regions. On Page 36, I am highlighting one example. In North America, this is the establishment of a hydrogen solutions ecosystem. So we connect the users, production, storage and transport. And by making this collaboration, we are creating a total ecosystem. So as you can note on the left, a 1,000,000 kilowatt energy storage facility as well as the stored hydrogen is connected via a pipeline and this will be used as fuel to operate gas turbine. And this will accommodate the energy needed in that specific location. And in this way, we are establishing such ecosystems. We will have similar projects in other regions as well. Please turn to Page 37. You see growth businesses through the energy transition. Regarding nuclear power, I have already explained about it, and we know that they are going to restart. And so it will be flat or increase slightly. Having said that, the thermal power investment will go down. Therefore, steam power investment will go down. So we are going to expand the service. But all in all, we believe that there will be reduction of steam power business. And so we are going to reduce the amount of carbon in the existing thermal power system. So after 2025, we are going to commercialize the capturing of carbon as well as expansion of hydrogen. Page 30A, to drive the energy transition, in October of this year, we have a plan to integrate Mitsubishi Power into MHI, so we can be a comprehensive power company. The details are shown on Page 39. By this integration, Mitsubishi Power is working on thermal power, and that will be decarbonized. And MHR is working on SCO2 as well as hydrogen ecosystem. And these 2 endeavors will be driven in parallel. And also for thermal power, we are going to focus on decarbonization of existing businesses. Speaking, we are going to move on to advanced maintenance and so that organization wise, we will more or less focus on the maintenance. For the boilers, as I have explained to you before, in terms of the turbine production capacity, we are going to adjust it according to the market needs. Next, the new mobility and logistics, which are our new areas. Page 41, you see the concept chart. On the right, we have been focusing on the component delivery. But on top of that, we are going to combine in the solution business, which is comprised of autonomous intelligent machine systems. On the right, you see the customer's issues. We have advanced functions and products, and we will provide them so that we will be able to solve customers' issues. And those systems will be interlinked so that they will be deemed as a total solution for the customers. We will use a digital twin system so that the modeling will enable us to confirm the validity of our proposal with the customers. In Takasago, we have R and D, and we do have the demonstration system so that we can collaborate with the customers. On Page 42, this shows our endeavor related to logistics. In logistics, as you can see on the right, there will be volatility due to the demand fluctuation, and we have shortage of human power and also issues related to quality. By using this discipline, we can conduct analysis and resolve the issues that I have mentioned as customers' pain points. In order to materialize this concept, we need a standardized platform as depicted at the center, not only our own assistance, but multiple systems will be integrated and so that, that platform can be used by the customer at large. And this is still under development, but some of this platform is already under validation. It's for chiller as well as AGF and automated warehouse companies, and we would like to harvest tangible results. On Page 43, you see the mobility and called a chain mechanisms that we are implementing, which can be leveraged for other mobility areas. On Page 44, you see the status of our profitability. In 21 MTB, we want to attain the profit margin of 7% by 2023. Please see 1 page, and you see the target for FY23 on Page 46. On the left, you see the baseline of 21, excluding the one off event. We tried to reduce SG and A and tried to grow the existing business growth. So we want to have the business profit of JPY 150,000,000,000 in 2021. And we are going to drive this furthermore heading towards FY 'twenty three. And as a result of those endeavors, we will be able to expand our dividend to our shareholders and try to secure our capital for future investments. At present 47, which shows our concrete measures, This is the recovery situation of COVID-nineteen. So we see some improvement in commercial aviation as well as logistics, thermal and drug systems, and we believe that by 2023, we will be returning to pre COVID levels. Now Tier 1, we do believe that it will take more time to put ourselves on a recovery track. So we do need to innovate our production approach along the way. So all in all, the state of businesses and surrounding environments are different, but the COVID impact is within the range of our forecast. Moving on to Page 48. This shows how we plan to reshuffle our existing business. So we have shuffled 4 business areas in 2020. So for instance, we have acquired stake in Vestas for wind power systems as well as acquisition of Mitsu E and S Shipbuilding as well for naval and governmental ships. For machine tooling, divested to Nidec Group. And for the Koyagi shipyard, we will be divesting to the Oshima shipbuilding and this is now under agreement. So we will further progress forward with the portfolio reshuffling. On the following page, we cover headcount adjustments. For overseas, we have reduced headcount by approximately 3,000. And here in Japan, approximately 1500 headcount adjustment has been achieved. And from here onwards, we'll be focusing on thermal power business. And this is to further facilitate the fulfillment of our plan. Now moving on to Page 50, SG and A. We have reduced SG and A in 2020 as well as for 2021, as I explained earlier, we will be integrating Mitsubishi Power and further promote asset management. Moving on to the final topic on Page 51, which is our initiatives towards SDGs. If you can please reference Page 52. In light of carbon neutral, I have explained what we plan to do. And so I would like to highlight some unique initiatives, creative collaboration through co creation as well as NHI Sports Challenge. So if you move on to Page 53, this depicts the YHH Yokohama Hard Tech Hub activities. In October of 2020 at the Homoku plant, we opened up this facility. So we are utilizing our plant and focusing on supporting venture companies that manufacture various things. So on the right, you see 7 tenant startups that are already in place. And starting this spring, we do believe that their activities will lead to innovation. There will be synergy impact amongst the tenants as well. On Page 54, this is the MHI Sports Challenge. So up to now, each of the plants have focused on their own unique sports activities. We are now putting this together to further strengthen our teams and this will also allow collaboration amongst the group companies and further embed ourselves in the local community. I introduce 2 unique highlights and our approach to diversity as well as workplace innovation. We will continue with such endeavors in the future as well. And finally, on Page 56, I would like to summarize what I've mentioned so far. For FY 2020, we were impacted by the COVID-nineteen. However, we have surpassed profit forecast. And once again, I would like to take this opportunity to show my gratitude to all of you who have supported us. And accelerating energy transition initiatives is also focused since there are many aggressive activities of decarbonization around the globe. And this will allow us to integrate Mitsubishi Power into MHI and drive forward as a total energy solutions company and also expanding into new areas, especially in focus of new mobility and logistics space. This will allow us to further increase profitability in 2021, and this will be a foothold for us achieving the FY 2023 targets. Thank you.