Thank you for your attendance today, despite such a short notice. Now, We would like to hold a press conference regarding the timely disclosure and the press release announced today at 3:30 P.M. First, we would like to introduce attendees today. Director, President, and Representative Executive Officer, Toshihiro Mibe. Director, Executive Vice President, and Representative Executive Officer, Noriya Kaihara. Director, Managing Executive Officer, Eiji Fujimura. First, Mibe will walk you through the background that led to the management decision this time, followed by Kaihara's explanation of the future direction towards reconstruction of Honda's automobile business in mid to long term. Now, floor is yours, Mibe-san.
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. This is Mibe speaking. Thank you for taking time to join us despite the short notice.
As you may have come to know through sources such as our news release today, we announced our forecast revision in the fiscal year ending March 31st, 2026. Though challenging, we will explain the background of this decision and future direction for rebuilding the mid to long-term automobile strategy. Honda has been working to realize carbon neutrality by 2050. To this end, led by small-sized mobility products, including passenger cars, Honda shifted strategic direction toward EV popularization based on a belief that EVs will be the optimal long-term solution. In this journey, we anticipated increasingly stringent environmental regulations would come into full effect in various countries in the latter half of the 2020s. For example, under the U.S. ACC II automotive environmental regulation, penalties up to $20,000 per vehicle would be imposed on non-compliant vehicles.
On this premise, we spent the last several years steadily preparing for widespread adoption of EVs. We decided to allocate more resources to EV business after a comprehensive study of various factors, including U.S. IRA incentives and projected profitability of our ICE and hybrid models upon introduction of EV. Above all, we made the decision to take initiatives towards carbon neutrality. We believe this is our responsibility to our children and future generations as a mobility company. However, during the past few years, our business environment has drastically changed at a speed far exceeding our projection. First, in the U.S., as you know, easing of environmental regulations and discontinuation of EV incentives significantly slowed EV market growth. This trend is expected to continue for some time. In contrast, the EV market has expanded in China.
Competitors have launched products and deployed electrification and intelligent technology faster than expected. Even in ASEAN, we are facing strong competition from emerging OEMs. In this competitive environment, Honda was unable to deliver products that offer better value for money, resulting in a decline in competitiveness. We recognize our automobile business is facing tough earnings due to various factors, including our ability to respond flexibly to changes and also the decline in our gasoline and hybrid model profitability due to newly imposed tariffs. Against this backdrop, we decided to cancel market launch and development of the Honda 0 SUV, Honda 0 Saloon, and Acura RSX. To achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, electrification is an unavoidable challenge. In this context, through the Honda 0 Series, we have consistently pursued new value Honda aspires to offer in the coming age.
However, due to the above changes in our business environment, EV demand has declined significantly, mostly in America. Despite our measures, it will be extremely difficult to ensure profitability of our EV models. If we were to move into the production and sales phase, this would likely result in further losses in the long run. We are fully aware many Honda associates, business partners, and those on the sales front line have devoted and embraced passion to the EV model sales with high expectations coming from many customers. This decision was by no means an easy one. Nevertheless, we made this decision believing that introducing these three models without an outlook for business viability may result in early production discontinuation. This would cause concern and inconvenience to our customers due to damage to our brand and others.
We believe introducing these models will not be in the best interest for the future of Honda. We take this decision seriously and will address each affected supplier partner individually with due care. Now, based on this management decision, we now expect to record impairment and write-off losses on tangible and intangible assets intended to be used for EV model production, as well as additional losses. The maximum total losses estimated as of today is JPY 2.5 trillion, of which approximately JPY 1.3 trillion will be recorded as addition to the fiscal year forecast announced on February 10. The estimated breakdown is JPY 820 billion-JPY 1.12 trillion operating losses, JPY 110 billion-JPY 150 billion loss of investments using the equity method in China and other regions.
We plan to record the remaining losses of JPY 1.2 trillion for the most part in next fiscal year ending March 31st, 2027. It's regrettable that we must record such a large loss. However, what is expected of the Honda management team now is not to justify the past, but to face this reality squarely and transition our automobile business to a structure that enables mid to long-term growth. Next, Executive Vice President Kaihara will explain the direction for rebuilding our strategy.
Thank you. I would like to elaborate on the direction for rebuilding the mid- to long-term strategy. First, we will reassess the allocation of our resources, previously focused on EV business. Towards the second half of the 2020s, we'll introduce new hybrid models, improve immediate profitability, and strengthen the foundation of our automobile business. As for EVs, assuming that EVs demand will grow again in the future, we will maintain investment discipline to lay the groundwork from a long-term perspective. In addition, as part of our original strategy, in addition to the U.S. and Japan, we will define India as our focused country and strengthen our initiatives. In the U.S. market, in light of this change in resource allocation, in addition to the existing plans, we are planning to introduce new hybrid models towards the second half of the 2020s.
Moreover, as we've been saying, from 2027 onward, we will start applying our next generation hybrid system to key models in stages. Also, in the D or larger segment, which represent a significant market size, we are planning to further expand our HEV lineup by applying a newly developed large-sized hybrid system. In addition, this is already in the developmental phase with on-road testing in the U.S., but we plan to apply our next generation ADAS to key hybrid models and continue to expand the lineup. By making the new hybrid models equipped with the next generation ADAS as our main axis, we will improve the model mix, through which we will further grow our North America operations in both volume and profit.
In the Japanese market, in addition to the recently announced Sport Line and Trail Line model launches, we will start full-fledged application of our next generation hybrid system from 2027 onward. The next generation ADAS will be introduced to Japanese market by fully matching to the complex road environment and the unique driving preferences of customers in Japan. The next generation ADAS is a novel technology for most customers in Japan, and we believe it could change the concept of driving for them. That's why we would like to offer our next generation ADAS to as many customers as possible, and we will apply it to all new Vezel. We will offer them in an affordable and competitive price range to popularize them in Japan.
Through these initiatives, we will elevate our product lineup, which currently has a high ratio of mini and small-sized models, and further strengthen the Honda brand in Japan. In India, we are not ready to share any details today, but we are discussing various initiatives. We will work to strengthen our automobile business, including enhancement of the model lineup by introducing new models tailored to demand in India. Meanwhile, in China, where the preconditions of the business environment, including the progress of electrification, is different from other regions, we take regional characteristics into account and enhance the application of intelligent electrification while building a competitive supply chain optimized for the Chinese market to fundamentally enhance our product and cost competitiveness.
In addition to these regional strategies, in order to fundamentally enhance the competitiveness of our automobile business and ensure sustainable growth into the future, we will transform our manufacturing operations focused on shortening the development period, improving production efficiency, and strengthening supply chains. We would like to share more details on each initiative at a later time. As for supply chains heavily impacting our automobile business, in addition to stable procurement of high-risk components like semiconductors and rare earth materials, we will enhance our supply chains based on the business environment in each region. In North America, where new tariffs have significantly impacted our business. We further increase the local procurement ratio, mostly with our next generation hybrid models, which will be launched from 2027 onward.
Especially as for batteries, one of the components of a hybrid system, discussion is moving forward as part of JV, joint venture partnership with LG Energy Solution to localize production on hybrid batteries by converting EV battery production lines to hybrid battery lines at our joint venture company, L-H Battery. With this approach, we will strive to respond to high demand for HEV in North America, mitigate the tariff impact, and achieve stable operation of LHB all at the same time. While pursuing these initiatives, from a financial perspective, we will thoroughly control disciplined expenditure to achieve a fixed cost structure appropriate for the business scale. To be more specific, we will tighten the criteria for setting investment caps based on earnings, and we will enforce even more disciplined decision-making than before.
Based on the strategic importance and profitability, we will be more selective and focused in making investment, and we will continue monitoring post-investment earnings performance. Due to these EV-related impairments this time, our consolidated earnings will bottom out in the fiscal year ending March 31st, 2026 and March 2027. However, excluding the impact of these one-off losses, we estimate operating profit will remain at the level of JPY 1 trillion. Furthermore, through the initiatives outlined today, we will put our automobile business back on growth trajectory. In particular, from the fiscal year ending March 2028 onward, positive effects of introducing new models in the U.S. and next generation hybrid models globally can be expected for multiple models and for the entire fiscal year. With these efforts, we will steadily regain the inherent earnings power of our automobile business.
By increasing our product competitiveness and improving model mix, we will strengthen our earnings structure, both in volume and profitability, with which we will transition to a stable profit-generating business structure. Moreover, though additional expenses may be recorded next fiscal year and after, thanks to solid earning power and cash generating capability of our motorcycle and financial service businesses, the operating cash flow adjusted for R&D expenses for the fiscal year nine months remained at par year-on-year. From a financial stability perspective, we will continue to hold cash on hand equivalent to one month's revenue considered appropriate, and borrowing remains relatively low. Thereby, we maintain a relatively high credit rating compared to other OEMs. With this robust cash-generating capability and solid balance sheet, we will continue to provide stable shareholder returns based on the DOE indicator.
Despite forecast revision, the forecast for dividends this fiscal year remains unchanged.
Thank you, Kaihara-san. As explained, we will reassess additional EV-related investments. However, we will fully leverage the software technologies and expertise we have amassed through EV development. In particular, the new values we intended to offer through Honda 0 Series, such as ASIMO OS and next-generation ADAS, will be offered through our hybrid models without significant delay. As of today, EV demand is declining in North America and other regions. However, this trend will not be permanent. To achieve carbon neutrality when EV demand resumes, Honda will be ready to fulfill customer expectations and offer compelling products unique to Honda. We must lay the groundwork for EV business with a long-term and flexible perspective while monitoring profitability and demand trends.
This is the reason for our decision to step back and reassess and rebuild our earnings structure. Today, I explained the direction we will take to rebuild our mid to long-term strategy. We will share more details at our May press conference. Thank you for your attention.
Thank you so very much for your attention. Now I would like to move on to Q&A. As it was announced beforehand, I would like to take questions by Zoom. Also, due to time constraint, we would like to limit questions, two questions per person. When you raise a question, please put your microphone and camera on. Okay. Now, if you have a question, please press your raise hand button. First question from Nikkei. Okinaga.
Thank you. This is Okinaga from Nikkei. As for Honda, I think this is the largest deficit you've posted since being listed. About the management responsibility and compensation, can you explain your thoughts as to how the management will take responsibility? Also, will there be a revision to your target for 2040, 100% EV?
Well, I'd like to answer the first question about, including the possibility of resignation, how the management will take responsibility. As I earlier stated, in the United States, the environmental regulations and also trade policies have changed drastically and slowed down the EV market, and also the emerging OEMs are rising. There are different factors, but essentially we believe that the automotive market structure is being shaken, and automobile OEMs are all facing a transition at this point in time.
Having said that, as a result, in hindsight, we believe that there are a lot of uncertainties in our business outlook. We have to look at the market and also the policy trend and be flexible. In other words, we have to have multiple scenarios in place. But even with this effort, I think that we were not able to meet the requirements. Ultimately, the responsibility lies with me, and that is the reason why as a management decision, without putting off, we didn't want to put off losses to the future. Though it was a hard decision, we had to discontinue the EVs that we had planned for. In February, we announced our change in organization, but I myself, as a Chief Transformation Officer, will try to play my role as the officer responsible for transformation.
First, we have to stop the bleeding, and then we have to think about how to rebuild our business competitiveness and produce results. I think that is the biggest responsibility that I have, and I would like to focus on this. Also, about your second question, the 2040 carbon neutral target and whether or not this will be revised. Well, we are seeing global warming, and it is a social issue. As a company, we have to deal with this. This remains unchanged and we'll not give up. But as a means of achieving, we were trying to accelerate popularization of EVs until today. But currently, due to various factors, battery EV, the market included, is slowing down. As a milestone, there was a need to reassess. The 2040 target that you mentioned, well,
We were saying 100% EV, but this target, well, realistically, it will be difficult to achieve. Now, as for the long-term roadmap and also our strategy, we are redrawing, and therefore, the details will be given to you at a business update in May. We'll present you our new strategy at that time. That's all from me.
Mr. Okinaga, thank you very much. Our next question from TV Tokyo, Abe-san, please.
Can you hear me? I'm Abe from TV Tokyo.
Yes.
Okay, this time you decided to discontinue the three models' development. In last year's Japan Mobility Show, Mibe-san was advertising those models, you know, with pride. That's what I remember when I was listening to you that time. The EV was not improving, and because of the slowing registration of EV, you said that that's the time to develop our EVs. Within six months since then, you've decided to not develop. From that time, did you have a thought that it would be difficult, or did you make a certain decision at this point? We would like to know from the last fall what went on to make decision like this. Also Honda 0 Alpha.
You will continue developing and do mass production to sell this model. I would like to know if that's the case.
Thank you for your question, Abe-san. As for JMS, Japan Mobility Show, since I made a speech at that time, what changed. From that time, EV market was growing, but we were hitting the ceiling. At that time, we had a tariff impact and also the incentive.
Topics were coming in, so we have been focusing on these topics. From that time on, in 2025, 8% of America's new models were from EV. As our plan, ACC II, our prediction at that time was in 2026. 12%-18% growth was projected at that time, that was the market growth. We anticipated 30% in 2030, and that was a general perspective. Since then, what changed include greenhouse regulation was removed. Also because since then, in America, the consumer sentiment was really down and were lowered. January into February of ratio of 2026, it went down to about 5%. That led to a production volume declines.
Our plan, the volume, got dropped so much. An incentive, a large incentive needed to be given, but also gross profit became negative and more than our plan, the negative become larger than we expected. We also studied whether those three models cancellation will recover our status, and that those models development will impact our future direction. With heavy hearted we made this decision. Since GSM, the market became so lowered, that's one of the reasons. Meanwhile, we came up with a lot of cost down measures, and also we reviewed our volumes setting. We took a lot of counter measures in order to deliver as much products as possible to our customers.
In reality, it was still very difficult, and we decided we made this decision because this will impact our future business. As for 0 Alpha, the main market for this model is not North America. It's mainly India, Japan, and that's the market we are looking at. The environment surrounding this region has also changed, and we can see profitability in the future in these regions. That's why we decided to keep this model. That's all.
Thank you, Abe-san. Next question. Yomiuri. Mr. Ukita, please.
This is Ukita from Yomiuri Newspaper. Can you hear me?
Yes.
Thank you for the presentation. Well, in your presentation, you talked about shortening the production and development period. Well, in China, in order to compete against these new players, there was a need to shorten this period. You said that you're still working out the details, but for example, using AI, other measures. If you have anything that you can share with us in terms of the direction, please do so now.
Well, today, Kaihara did explain about that. Also in the materials that we have provided you, it does make reference to that. The emerging OEMs, especially the Chinese OEMs. Well, outside of the United States, they have entered into all markets. The Chinese OEMs, unless we can compete against them, it will be very difficult for us to do business. As a means to win, for example, drastically shortening the development period also is drastically improving the production efficiency. Well, these types of measures need to be taken. That included, we are trying to change the structure of our automotive business and the details will be explained in May. That is all.
Thank you.
Thank you, Ukita-san. Next question from Best Car. Terasaki-san, please.
Terasaki from Best Car. Thank you for your presentation. Honda 0 Series development and production will be canceled, so I would like to know more details. Earlier, as you mentioned, the three models in North America development will be canceled. What I was surprised is that 0 Alpha will continue. In that sense, so 0 Series, it doesn't mean that you will discontinue everything, but Honda 0 Series will it be existing, but depending on the models, it will be continued or discontinued. Because last year in the Japan Mobility Show 2027, you said that as for 0 Alpha, introduction of the market will be implemented. That plan is still running. The Honda 0 Series itself, I would like to know that more specifically what your plan is.
Terasaki-san, thank you for your question. It was maybe difficult to understand. Those three models that we showed in the Japan Mobility Show, Saloon and SUV and Alpha, those are three models. The top two, Saloon and SUV. Our main market is North America, especially the U.S. That was the precondition, and that's the precondition for the development. But the BEV market is slowing down in the U.S., so our market, our this business will be so much lower than what we had expected. That's why we decided not to do it. But as for Alpha, like I said earlier, India market and Japan market and also some Asia markets, that's the main market where we are developing these models, this model.
Although we see some changes, it's not major changes in the market. We still see some profitability in that market, so we will stick to our plan to sell them.
As for Honda 0 Series, it won't continue, right?
Yes. In that sense, yeah, we will continue our 0 Alpha, so it doesn't mean that all 0 Series will be canceled.
Thank you.
Thank you very much, Terasaki-san. Next question. NHK, Nishizono-san, please.
Can you hear me? This is Nishizono speaking.
Yes, I can hear you.
I don't know if I should be asking this to Mibe-san or Kaihara-san or Fujimura. The JPY 2.5 trillion, the breakdown, can you elaborate to the extent possible, please?
Yes. Fujimura will explain.
Nishizono-san, thank you for the question. JPY 2.5 trillion, the breakdown you ask. Well, this time, these three models and development will be canceled. In making this decision, impairment of the development assets we have had and we have to write them off or the dies and dedicated facilities also exist, and we have to have impairment of those assets. Plus, well, to our suppliers, well, because they have made a lot of preparation for our EVs, we have to sincerely negotiate with them one by one and provide compensation. Those are included coming to JPY 2.5 trillion. Another, this is a separate issue, but this box which talks about the equity method.
As you know, we in China have struggled with our Chinese business. We have been putting on our balance sheet the share of investments accounted for using the equity method. But for those which we have difficulty, this will be impaired under impairment. Now the portion will be half and half. This fiscal year, JPY 1.3 trillion, and next fiscal year, JPY 1.2 trillion at maximum. Cash items and non-cash items, this fiscal year FY 2026, it's JPY 0.6-JPY 0.8 trillion. These are non-cash items. So JPY 1.7 trillion is cash item. This will be generated under the current fiscal 2026. It's different from the JPY 2.5 trillion.
As Kaihara has explained already, by posting these losses, we believe that EV related, especially North America, the losses, the future losses, I think, it can be written off more or less. Of course, this is our estimate as of today. I cannot guarantee that there will not be any additions, but it will not be the same size as you see here in terms of the addition. The JPY 1.7 trillion cash out, this is a large portion. As said, on a consolidated basis, we have a gross cash of JPY 4 trillion.
The balance sheet, I think we have a very solid balance sheet and, therefore the level of cash at hand and also next fiscal year, we will be able to earn operating cash flow the same as this year, excluding these losses this year. I think it will be at par as this year. Therefore, in terms of the health and also security of our balance sheet, I think you can be rest assured. We've switched to DOE, and stable dividends will be something that we will work on. Of course, the details, please wait until we make an announcement of our final financial results in May. There, we would like to respond to your question further in detail. That is all for me. Thank you.
Thank you very much. About JPY 1.3 trillion for next fiscal year. This is also related to the three models of the tangible, intangible write-offs or is this China?
What we're saying next fiscal year is more. I cannot state any specific names of our suppliers, but it will be mostly compensation to our suppliers. We have rationally estimated the maximum amount of compensation to be paid to our suppliers. So JPY 1.3 trillion is for the three China-related models. Next fiscal year, JPY 1.2 trillion will be more or less for supplier compensation for the three model-related as a compensation to our suppliers.
Yes. Thank you very much.
Okay. We'll take next question. Shimashita-san.
Can you hear me okay?
Yes.
Thank you for your presentation today. It was very convincing this time, like the next hybrid competition progress. Listening to that, maybe it's going in the good direction. On the other hand, we feel kind of sad hearing the discontinuation. For new Honda, we would like. Maybe some people are wondering about the Sony Honda. Is the Liberty and the AFEELA bill feel are those separated? Also the development of these models. I think, I feel, models or what will happen to this model. If there is anything that you can share about this model.
As for Sony Honda Mobility, we started with the Sony Group. It's a SDV strategy. It's a very important project. We will, our shareholders will discuss the future of this project, and we haven't made any decision at this point yet. You have already started discussions. Yes. We have discussed a little bit earlier, but we will continue discussing among our shareholders about this.
Sony Honda. Because unless we know anything until May, we will be very concerned. I would like you to share as soon as possible. Thank you.
Next question, please. Miura-san from The Asahi Shimbun, please.
Miura from The Asahi Shimbun. Thank you. I have a question also to Mibe-san. In your explanation, you said that you have not been posting deficits for a long time, but this time you are. Historically speaking, I think this could be regarded as a crisis for Honda. Now, historically speaking, how do you recognize this case? Of course, it is attributable to the market environment. Compared to your competitors, I think it appears to me that Honda has a greater impact. What are the factors that have led to this result? Well, how do we perceive this historically?
Well, ever since we have shifted to this accounting standard, it's the first time that we're posting a deficit.
I think that this announcement and impact is something that we need to take seriously. Now, why has it come to be such a large sum of losses? Well, over the past few months, we have been discussing this internally, including myself. We were able to have a very open discussion and we don't think that this is attributable to our governance. ACC II, this is a very tough regulation in California, and if we fail to achieve it, there'll be a penalty of $20,000. Well, this is not just Honda, but all companies, auto companies doing business in U.S., we thought of this as a bottleneck. Therefore, we had tried to comply this regulation. The investment was very large and we wanted to comply with this regulation at a minimum level.
Though we have done that, the sum was large. Plus, the EV market in the United States is suffering a downturn, and it is less than half of what we were assuming. That is how much the market has shrunk. If we could proceed as is, we thought, this would further undermine our profitability. Therefore, this decision was made. Of course, we wanted to launch these models and, our associates and suppliers who were involved and ultimately our shareholders too, we do understand that we have put a lot of impact on these parties, and we do take this seriously. Yes, I think that is the reason why the number is so large.
Thank you, Miura-san.
Okay, it's time now.