Tokyo Electron Limited (TYO:8035)
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Earnings Call: Q1 2019

Jul 26, 2018

Koichi Hirayama
General Manager of IR Department, Tokyo Electron

It's time for us to start Tokyo Electron financial announcement of the first quarter. Thank you very much for joining us despite your very busy schedule and very, very hot weather. I am Hirayama of IR Department, acting as today's moderator. We'd like to introduce the attendees on our side. Mr. Tetsuo Tsuneishi, Representative Director, Chairman of the Board. Mr. Toshiki Kawai, Representative Director, President and CEO. Next, Mr. Ken Sasagawa, Vice President, Accounting Department. First of all, Mr. Sasagawa, Vice President, Accounting Department, will make announcement or presentation about the consolidated financial summary. Mr. Sasagawa, please.

Ken Sasagawa
VP of Accounting Department, Tokyo Electron

Good afternoon, everybody. Thank you very much for joining us despite your very busy schedule. I am Sasagawa, Vice President of Accounting Department. I'd like to talk about the consolidated financial summary of the first quarter of the fiscal year ending in March 2019.

First of all, you can see the highlights of the first quarter. As you can see over here, the Q1 results showed good progress in line with the plan for the first half of this fiscal year. For the second quarter new equipment sales plan, more than 60% of SPE and 100% of FPD tools have been shipped, waiting for the installation. We are on the very good progress as well. Second point, the SPE sales remained very strong due to increasing demand for data centers. Similarly, for FPD as well, the investment for Gen 10.5 in particular has been very strong, and we can see the very good progress as well. Let's go to the next slide. This shows the quarterly financial summary. On the right-hand side, you can see the first quarter results.

The net sales was 295.5 billion JPY, decreased by 17% from the fourth quarter. SPE sale was 280.4 billion JPY, and FPD sales was 15.1 billion JPY. The corresponding gross profit was 122.4 billion JPY. Gross profit margin was 41.4%. The margin was decreased by 1.7 percentage point. Because of the decrease in net sales, the proportion of the production cost was increased. That is the reason why we have the decrease of 1.7%. SG&A expenses, 50.0 billion JPY, and operating income was 72.4 billion JPY. Operating margin was 24.5%. Income before income tax was 75.2 billion JPY, and net income was 55.7 billion JPY. R&D expenses, capital expenditures, and depreciation are shown on the slide. You can see the financial performance on the graphical basis. As you can see on quarter-to-quarter basis, both net sales and income goes up and down.

When you look at every half year or every year, you can see the steady increasing trend overall. Next slide, please. Here you can see the segment information. Our segment income is based on income before income taxes. Let me start with SPE. SPE sales was 280.4 billion JPY on the first quarter. The segment income was 78.3 billion JPY. Segment profit margin was 27.9%. Compared with fourth quarter, marginal profit ratio product increased. As I said earlier, because of the proportion of fixed cost increases against sales, segment profit margin declined. Up until last year, the R&D expenses, some of them are included in the adjustment. They are transferred to the SPE segment. That's the reason why a slight decline was observed. Next, FPD segment. Sales was 15.1 billion JPY. Segment income was 2.4 billion JPY, and profit margin was 16.2%.

Again, just like SPE, because of the reduction in sales, proportion of fixed cost increased. Because of that, profit margin declined from the fourth quarter. For FPD over here, we are providing high-value added products only. So in this fiscal year, we are going to achieve the operating profit margin target of 20% for the midterm business plan. Composition net sales is shown on the right-hand side. The next slide, please. This shows SPE sales by region. As you can see over here, for the first quarter, as for the volume for sales, the first one is in Korea because of the very active investment in memory devices. An increase in sales is observed in China as well. Growing ratio is also big in China, the pink color on the bottom. In Japan, you can see increasing trend of sales as well.

Both of them, memory investment are the primary reasons. The next slide shows the new equipment sales by application. As I said earlier, the Korea, China, and Japanese memory customers are major investors. So the proportion for non-volatile memory was 49%, DRAM accounted for 30%. Memory proportion was rather high in the first quarter compared with others. The next slide shows the Field Solutions sales every quarter. As for the first quarter, JPY 63.2 billion, SPE JPY 60.6 billion, and FPD sales was JPY 2.5 billion. Again, you can see some up and down by quarter, but when you look every six months, you can see steady increasing trend for the Field Solutions sales. The next shows balance sheet. On the left, you can see assets. The total assets was JPY 1,185 billion. Compared with previous quarter, declined by JPY 17.7 billion.

On the top, cash and cash equivalent declined by JPY 18.2 billion from the fourth quarter. The major breakdown, actually there are quite a few breakdown for that, and please see the financial review for the details. But major one is the payment of the dividend, JPY 56.9 billion. Accounts receivable, almost the same level as the previous quarter. Inventories, compared with the end of fourth quarter, JPY 381.6 billion, declined by JPY 37.5 billion. Because we are going to prepare for the second quarter, and you can see we expect the high level of sales. Because of that, we have some increase in inventories. Next, on the right-hand side, you can see liabilities and net assets. For liabilities in total, JPY 412.7 billion, declined from the fourth quarter by JPY 18.5 billion. The net assets was JPY 772.3 billion. The first quarter equity ratio was 64.5%.

The next slide shows inventory turnover and accounts receivable turnover. The bar graph shows the sales, and inventory turnover was 170 days on the first quarter, increased by six days from the end of the previous quarter. Once again, this is because of the increase of the inventory waiting for the installation at the customer sites. Accounts receivable turnover was 46 days, decreased by six days from the previous quarter. This slide shows cash flow. OCF, as shown on the slide, the cash flow from operating activity was JPY 51.4 billion. Cash flow from investing activity was minus JPY 12.1 billion, mainly for the capital investment. And cash flow from the financing activities, minus JPY 56.9 billion. Again, the payment of the dividend was a major factor. Free cash flow was JPY 39.3 billion.

Finally, the cash on hand was declined by JPY 18.2 billion from the previous quarter, amounting to JPY 355.5 billion. Thank you very much. That's all from me. Next, Mr. Kawai, our CEO, will make a presentation on the business environment and financial estimates. Mr. Kawai, please.

Toshiki Kawai
President and CEO, Tokyo Electron

Thank you very much, and good afternoon. Or good evening, I should say. Once again, thank you very much for joining us despite the very tight schedule and hot weather. As Mr. Hirayama said earlier, I'd like to make a presentation on business environment and financial estimates. This slide shows the future market outlook of WFE by application. In May, when we made a presentation of the mid-term management plan, we talked about very similar issue. The new applications having semiconductors and the servers for data storage and high-speed calculation are increasing rapidly.

Therefore, WFE market is now exceeding $60 billion. That's a new phase that we are getting into. This shows business environment as of July 2018. Let me start with WFE CapEx. The WFE investment in calendar year 2018 is expected to grow by 10%-15% on the year-on-year basis, driven by active demand for memory devices for data centers. Next, flat panel production equipment CapEx for the TFT area process. For this, the FPD production equipment investment expected to remain as high as last year due to significant growth of CapEx for Gen 10.5, despite adjustments to the investment in small medium panels for mobile devices. In the previous time, I talked about 10% increase for flat panel display CapEx. However, this time, we just explain it as high as last year, just because a part of the push-out of the Gen 10.5.

We can see the WFE market growth and business opportunities by application for this calendar year. For DRAM, last year it increased by 70%. On top of that, the CapEx for DRAM expected to grow by 60%-65% on a year-on-year basis. For DRAM, actually, there is a tight supply situation. Supply cannot catch up with demand. Therefore, 70% of the investment is to increase capacity. Also, in order to increase the capacity per wafer, 80% of the investment is for the leading-edge devices. For DRAM, it's driven by the devices for servers. As for the non-volatile memories, again, last year, about 70% increase was recorded. For this year, CapEx for non-volatile memory is expected to be similar to the last year level or increase by 5% on a year-on-year basis. For NAND investment, the leading-edge 9X-layer generation is a major area for investment.

In particular, demand of SSDs for data centers and PCs will grow further more. For business opportunity, high value added etching and cleaning processes are the area that we can differentiate ourselves from the competitors. You can see a good progress here. At the same time, for film deposition and high-speed testing system, we are in all products, we are getting higher positions, and we can have good progress, and we are enhancing our efforts to further increase our position. For logic and foundry, the CapEx for logic foundry will drop by 10% or remain unchanged from previous year. For leading-edge 10 nanometer or beyond devices, accounts for about 50% of the total investment. For this year, for 7 nanometer node, high-volume production will start, and also investment to the pilot production of 5 nanometer node also starts. Compared with three months ago, there are slight pushout trend in investment.

However, semiconductor demand does not get decreased, but we should say that is because of the technology migration. That's how we understand the trend of the slight push-out. When you look at by each application, on a quarterly basis, you can see some increase or decrease up and down trends. When you look at the entire big picture, there is no change, and semiconductor demand continued very strong. Midterm or long-term demand remains unchanged from the previous report announcement. Now you can see the business progress of this fiscal year, fiscal year ending in March 2019. The SPE business strategy is being implemented as planned. For etching, 3D NAND slit process. For DRAM, combined patterning and interconnect process are very strong. We can increase share, and we are going to increase share and sales as well.

For film deposition as well, this year, we are focusing on Semi-Batch ALD. We have won several certifications of the POR for the volume production. It can make some contribution to the next year's sales as well. For cleaning process as well, the process for the pattern collapse prevention, we can get the POR as well. As for the flat panel display production equipment, as Mr. Sasagawa said earlier a little bit, high value added products, PICP etching products, is now getting into the generation 8.5. Last year, Gen 10.5 was a major area. We increased our position by gaining some PORs. This year, the mass production of Gen 10.5 started. FPD production equipment profit margin is now increasing right now. For Miyagi factory, for etching equipment, we have the automated warehouse system, which was supposed to start its operation in June.

Actually, operation started in June, and second new development building is supposed to be completed in September. This construction of the new development building is under progress. A new production line is planned to start operation in November this year. Not only this year, but also 2019 and 2020, you can address the demand for the future. Now, I'd like to talk about the financial estimates for the year ending in March 2019. There is no change from the previous announcement. As I said earlier, by application, you can see some increase or decrease. However, by and large, there is no change at all. We expect the sales growth to exceed market growth in generating record high profit for the third consecutive year. Next, you can see SPE division new equipment sales forecast. Sales by application.

For Q1, sales of Q1 were in line with the plan, and more than 60% of Q2 sales target has been shipped. As you can see, beyond Q2 and second half of this year, we can expect high level investment for memory devices. R&D expenses and CapEx plan. Again, there is no change from the previous announcement. Midterm, we have $60 billion+ market trend, we are going to active in investment for further growth our company. Next slide, the final slide. The last slide shows dividend forecast. Again, there is no change, and we don't have any change in the dividend strategy, the plan is just the same as previous announcement. Thank you very much for your kind attention.

Koichi Hirayama
General Manager of IR Department, Tokyo Electron

Now I'd like to entertain questions from the floor up until 6:00 P.M.

I'd like you to limit the number of questions by one per person with a follow-up question. Could you identify yourself by your name and affiliation? Please make sure to speak accurately and briefly because today's financial announcement will be uploaded to our website. Could you raise your hand if you have any questions, please? Yes, the gentleman in front, please.

Masayuki Wadaki
Analyst, Nomura Securities

I am Wadaki from Nomura Securities. Thank you very much. The first question, only one question. Actually, I think your company is very bullish, and I am very happy to see there is no change in financial estimates, but there are some concerns. Therefore, I'd like to ask one question. Actually, I interviewed about 10 suppliers. Actually, overall, the suppliers said the number of orders, amount of order have decreased by half. When I look at Samsung, Micron, and Intel, there are some push-out announcements.

When you look at the entire push-out plan, it is within this fiscal year, so there should be no problem as far as this fiscal year is concerned. Actually, you have not changed your financial estimates. You said there is no problem. Could you let us know about the reasons why you did not change the financial estimates? First, I'd like you, Mr. Kawai, to let me know your opinion. After that, I also want to get some comments from Mr. Tsuneishi as well. Thank you very much.

Toshiki Kawai
President and CEO, Tokyo Electron

I am Kawai. I'd like to give you my answer first. For this year's growth, for SPE, the 15% increase is expected in the past, but this time, we say 10%-15% is the growth rate for SPE in today's announcement. We have been getting questions that our focus is too bullish. That is the question I myself received in the past.

Actually, I am talking with customers. Based on that discussion with customers, we announce our financial estimates. When you look at the recent information, I do understand there is some trend or information coming up from the industry. However, in the shareholders meeting, general shareholders meeting, I got the question. The question was, what are the risks for our company? I answered there are financial risks, geopolitical risks, and also the trade risk between the U.S. and China. Also, some potential risk is in the investment for scaling, whether the investment will progress as planned. That is another potential risk. As for your question, Mr. Wadaki, let me answer to your question. There are some push-outs trend. By and large, that is the migration to the scaling a bit delayed compared with the plan, and I think that review of the plan has already considered. That is how I view.

Tetsuo Tsuneishi
Representative Director and Chairman of the Board, Tokyo Electron

I am Tsuneishi, and I quite agree with Mr. Kawai. When it comes to financial estimates, till March next year, the end of our fiscal year. When you look at WFE for calendar year, but also when you look at the end of March 2019, of course, when you look at short-term trend, quarter-to-quarter, you can see some increase or decrease. However, there is no situation to force us to change the financial estimate for this fiscal year. Up until next year, I think the market trend is rather good. Market is active in big picture. That is the reason why we did not change our financial estimates. One follow-up question. Many other companies often say that every 3 months it is so difficult to change or revise the financial estimates, so we need to wait for 6 months to come up with more precise financial estimate.

Is that how you also think about the financial estimates, or do you really think there is no need to change financial estimate now? For midterm, long-term period, there was SEMICON West. I talked with many people at SEMICON West the other day, 2019 and 2020. Positive messages were heard in SEMICON West as well. When you look at big picture, there have been no changes at all. Very strong demand continue. That's what I want to report to you. As I said earlier, the plan is not because of the decrease in demand, but just because of the migration plan revision. Pushouts exist. At the same time, there are some pull-ins existing as well. In that sense, we have very strong demand, there are some increase or decrease, some pushout and pull-ins. That trend are also incorporated. Thank you very much.

Koichi Hirayama
General Manager of IR Department, Tokyo Electron

Thank you very much for your

Masayuki Wadaki
Analyst, Nomura Securities

May I? I am Tsuneishi. Even in the past, as you know, we revised our financial estimate even in the first quarter. That happened in the past. In principle, essentially, as necessary, we revise or change the financial estimate if it's necessary. If there is no need, we don't change our financial estimate. That is our basic approach. There is no such cycle of every six months. Next question, please. Yes, this gentleman in front row, please. Thank you very much for your presentations. I'm Yoshida from Deutsche Securities. About the new equipment sales forecast, the second quarter, 60% of the sales plan has been already shipped, there is a big difference between first quarter and second quarter. Similarly, in the second half of year, there should be a big difference between the third and fourth quarter as well? That's my question.

Toshiki Kawai
President and CEO, Tokyo Electron

Your question is about whether there any difference between first, third, and fourth quarter. Is that your question? Yes, that's correct. In particular, for this fiscal year, actually, there should be no major difference from the previous trends. On the budget approval by the customer might have some impact, because of that, there are some ups and downs. In some cases, customer places order, right away, they want to get the delivery of the products. For this fiscal year, there is no major difference from the previous years. That's how I view the trends. Maybe the January-March in the second half of this year, compared with October to December, there are some increase of the sales in January to March compared with the October to December. Is that how I can view that?

Yu Yoshida
Analyst, Deutsche Securities

There might be slight trend as such, we don't change our plan at all. When you look at closely the third quarter and fourth quarter, we haven't announced any breakdown between third quarter and fourth quarter, this year is not different from the previous years. My follow-up question for FPD. Actually, first and second quarter, there are some big difference between first and second quarter as well. You said the second quarter sales plan has been already achieved, very similarly, on the second half of this year, how do you view the trends of the sales for this FPD? The FPD requires very big production equipment, I'm not able to make any comments on the details of the third and fourth quarter.

Toshiki Kawai
President and CEO, Tokyo Electron

When you look at the overall market of FPD this year, next year, and the year after, there should be very similar trend for three years to come. In our company, as Mr. Sasagawa said earlier, we are trying to increase our profit margin. 20% of operating profit margin is to be achieved via focusing on the high value-added products. Because of that, there might be some increase or decrease in the future. That's how I would like you to understand our future trend. Thank you very much for your question. Any other questions? Yes, the gentleman next to the previous gentleman, please. Thank you very much. I am Ogawa from Goldman Sachs Japan. Again, I have a question about this fiscal year plan. For WFE, you said 10%-15% growth expected. A slight decreasing trend.

Satoru Ogawa
Analyst, Goldman Sachs Japan

You haven't changed the full year plan because when there is conversion between the calendar year to fiscal year, there is no change, or even for your fiscal year, just like WFE, fluctuation factors are incorporated. That's what I want to understand. Application, which might affect your financial estimate, logic as the important driver, or memory also drive the changes? Demand is rather big, significant, and those are some circumstances. There are quite a few pull-ins and pull-out in all applications. That's the reason why we haven't changed. For your second question, could you just repeat your second question, please? Are you talking about memory or logic? Right. Your question is whether pull-in and pull-outs are driven by memory devices or logic devices by application, actually. Right.

Toshiki Kawai
President and CEO, Tokyo Electron

For 3D NAND, DRAM or logic devices, the pull-in, pull-outs happens in every application. Thank you. It's not because of demand, just because of scaling driven by the leading-edge technology. Push-out, not for this fiscal year, maybe next fiscal year, we can see the realization. Or are there something which just disappear? What happens for pull-in, pull-out, that's on the basis of three months or six months period. Thank you very much. In particular, when it comes to scaling, maybe demanding device structure, maybe the yield should be one of the factors. As I said earlier, the high volume production of the existing or previous nodes, that's not the area the capacity is increasing. Rather, capacity is tried to be added for the leading-edge nodes to increase the bit capacity, however.

Mikio Hirakawa
Analyst, Merrill Lynch Japan Securities

That's where the investment plan, in line with the scaling, causes some pull-ins or pull-outs. Thank you very much. Next question, please. Again, the gentleman in the front row, please. I'm Hirakawa from Merrill Lynch Japan Securities. My question is very similar to the previous one. For push-out, I think I understand what push-out takes place, but I'm not able to understand why pull-in takes place. Could you elaborate why pull-in takes place in the market? I cannot give you something specific. For example, when yield is improving rapidly, then maybe we can do some pull-in. That is one of the reasons why pull-in takes place. For IoT, internet of things, application as a whole is expanding. At the same time, application is diversified. Therefore, the device manufacturer to address the expanding or diversifying applications, that's the reason why pull-in takes place.

Toshiki Kawai
President and CEO, Tokyo Electron

Not only the yield increase, but also the expansion of the IoT application is one of the reasons why pull-in takes place. Thank you very much. Next question, please. There is a gentleman raising hand in the middle of this room. I'm Yamamoto from Mizuho Securities. I have one question. I have a question to Mr. Sasagawa. Slide nine. Very similar question I asked earlier, so I'm sorry for that. But your quarterly sales, when I built it, first and third quarter sales is rather low, and second, fourth quarter sales are rather higher. When you look American tool vendors, their sales are very close to the final demands in trends. But why in the case of your company, there is some seasonality in your sales, the second, fourth quarter sales, rather higher than the other two quarters?

Yoshitsugu Yamamoto
Analyst, Mizuho Securities

You are now following using the CST rather than shipment-based sales recognition. The sales trend might be very close to American companies, but I think you define your own CST, so you can control the timing of sales recognition. Could you just elaborate the reason why this kind of trend happens in your company? Mr. Sasagawa, please. I'm Sasagawa. From the accounting viewpoints, actually, I have no accurate idea about the other company's situation. But generally speaking, when you look at the American competitors, they are recognizing sales very close to the shipment-based sales recognition. Shipment itself doesn't change so drastically from month to another or quarter to quarter. I think the American competitors' sales are increasing linearly. That could be the style of accounting system, American companies.

Ken Sasagawa
VP of Accounting Department, Tokyo Electron

In the case of our company, on the other hand, as you said earlier, we are not based on shipment, but we are using CST, completion of startup and testing. Of course, we are shipping our products on a linear basis, but we do intend to recognize our sales for each line of the client altogether, although those tools are shipped in different timing. Therefore, a certain week or in certain month, sales tend to be recognized all together. That's the reason why you can see some increase or decrease in our sales. From the viewpoint of accounting. There is no intention at all, but sales recognition is increased in second and fourth quarter. Are there any particular reasons? No, there is no particular reasons for that. Thank you very much. Yes, the gentleman just behind, three rows behind the gentleman who asked the question earlier.

Masahiro Nakanomyo
Analyst, Jefferies Japan

I'm Nakanomy o from Jefferies Japan. My question is rather vague, I'm sorry for that. We are now observing some push-out because of the scaling. It's not because of the supply-demand relationship. That's what you said, and that's what's happening. However, when you look at the future trends, the scaling problem will be solved, and that might be some problem with supply and demands in the future, maybe next year. Don't you have such kind of a concern for the future? In other words, the supply-demand relationship will not improve so rapidly, and we don't have to worry about that particular issue. Could you just give us some qualitative answer to my question, please? Hyperscale data centers, and based on IoT, big data era is now unfolding, and there is very strong demand coming out. High capacity device, high speed, high reliability, and low power consumption.

Toshiki Kawai
President and CEO, Tokyo Electron

Those devices will be required in the future. All this demand increase, but technology innovation is necessary for the future. That technology, leading-edge technology, I think there is only a limited number of clients who are able to address leading-edge technologies. Those clients who can address leading-edge technologies are rather dominant in the market because they have very excellent technologies. In other words, those limited number of customers can have a very good commander view of the market. They understand the market. Technology innovation is required. The only limited number of clients can address the high level of technology innovation. Those limited number of customers are having very good commander view of the market. Therefore, customers do not produce the same thing at the same time.

Masahiro Nakanomyo
Analyst, Jefferies Japan

That happened in the past, but it doesn't happen right now because every leading customer can see the market trend very well. That is the background. Now we have the forecasts. There should be no change expected for the future. There is no need to worry about the major change in the future. Thank you very much. Once again, actually, today, SK hynix made financial announcement. This year, next year, SK hynix is going to increase the CapEx, capital investment. That's what they say. Under those circumstances, still, your current comment or your current view doesn't change. Limited number of clients can see the trend of demands, can understand the market trend. Is that what you want to say? Yes, that's correct. Thank you very much for your question. Again, the gentleman in the middle, please. I am Miyamoto from Mitsubishi UFJ [Financial Group] .

Speaker 15

On page 15, slide 15, I'd like you to give us some extra explanation for outlook of WFE. For this year, $58 billion has been replaced by range from $56 billion-$58 billion. It looks like some decline. That $2 billion will disappear, or the figure for 2019 will be increased from $61 billion-$63 billion. I want to see where does it go, the $2 billion decrease, and I would like you to give us your comments on that issue. Understand your question. For this financial announcement, we just focus on this year's values, figures. As I said earlier, the scaling, the migration to the scaling causes pushout. When there is a strong pushout due to the migration for scaling, we just include $56 billion-$57 billion, but we haven't revised the figure for calendar year 2019.

Toshiki Kawai
President and CEO, Tokyo Electron

That's the reason why those figure just remain. In principle, pull in and pushouts take place, but that $2 billion will not disappear at all. That's how I want to answer to your question. Thank you very much. I have one follow-up question. When you talk about scaling, is that scaling for logic and DRAM? When it comes to 3D NAND, there is no further scaling, so 3D NAND is not relevant to your story. Is that correct understanding? No, for 3D NAND, in the structure of 3D NAND, the leading edge 3D NAND, some revision takes place. You said scaling, not only device shrink, but also the layer stacking is included. Is that correct? Yes, that's correct. Thank you very much for your question. The gentleman in the front row, please. I'm Damian Thong from Macquarie Capital Securities.

Damian Thong
Analyst, Macquarie Capital Securities

I have some additional questions for this fiscal year. WFE market outlook back in April for DRAM, you said 60% increase is expected, this time you said 60%-65% increase. NAND flash, the same as before, that's what you said in April, this time you said 5% increase. When it comes to this increase for the memory, are there any reasons for that? As I think 3D NAND flash, the scaling trend is slowing down. Why do you think memory market is growing? Could you give me some reasons for that? Actually, the 3D NAND investment is actually stronger than our expectation. That's the reason why. Okay, understand. Thank you very much. Thank you very much. Next question, please. Yes, the gentleman next to the previous gentleman, please. I'm Sugiura from Daiwa Securities. Thank you very much.

Toru Sugiura
Analyst, Daiwa Securities

You said there is no change in picture, and I think I understand it very well, you said three months or six months pushout taking place, and if it is just because of the yield program at the customer sites, do you think that yield problem will be corrected or solved in three months or six months? Do you think this is rather accurate, the pushout will be completed within three months or six months? Depending on situation, there might be some possibility the pushout period will be extended furthermore. Could you give me your comments, please? As I said earlier, one quarter or two quarters, three to six months should be the pushout periods. That's the image I have. Whether it will be extended furthermore or not, actually, it's up to customers, the customer's progress.

Toshiki Kawai
President and CEO, Tokyo Electron

I'm not in the position to make some comments on that issue. In that sense, now you are communicating with customers and you think maybe yield problem can be solved within the three or six months. Is that how you view the situation? Is that correct? I have follow-up question. On page 21, slide 21, now you can see the sales by application compared with previous announcement. When I look at composition, the non-volatile proportion increases in this composition. I wonder, what is the background? For example, which generation of NAND increases in composition or proportion? Could you give us the reason why the proportion of NAND device is increasing? This is the composition of our sales. This is not the composition of the market itself. I don't have any appropriate figures, DRAM composition in the market, proportion in market is increasing.

As far as our sales is concerned, since last year, we have been focusing on the etching and cleaning process, which are to be introduced in 3D NAND processes. We have added that bit. That's the reason why the composition of 3D NAND increases. 3D NAND and DRAM, I think they are rather comparable each other, almost the same level, we have been working hard for the 3D NAND. Now we can see successful results and that 3D NAND success contribute to our sales. That is the meaning of this purple color. This reflect our efforts, and we are very happy to see that. The gentleman on the second row, please. I am Hanaya from SMBC Nikko Securities. My question is very similar to the previous question.

Takeru Hanaya
Analyst, SMBC Nikko Securities

As for the new equipment sales forecast shown on the page 21, when I just roughly calculated it from 3 months ago, actually, sales for DRAM has been decreasing according to my calculation. However, for WFE growth rate for DRAM was increased from 60%-65%. The sales for DRAM is not increased. Why does that happen? Could you explain the reason why, please? Just because of the changes in mix. There is some slight change in DRAM plan, and there are some factors to replenish it, but they're having some changes. Thank you very much. As for non-volatile memory, again, WFE almost the same level to +5%, 5% increase. When you have the breakdown NAND and other non-volatile memory, for example, 3D NAND might be decreasing while the other is increasing. Could you give us some breakdown between NAND and others in non-volatile memory?

Toshiki Kawai
President and CEO, Tokyo Electron

Could you give us some comment, please? The composition of non-volatile memory sales haven't changed. Thank you very much. Thank you very much. Next question, please. We do have 10 more minutes, so maybe if you can come up with second question. I'm sorry. We have a gentleman in the rear of this room. Could you ask your question, please? Thank you. I am Ishino from Tokai Tokyo Research Center. There are some technological hurdles and there are some push-outs. That's what I heard from manufacturers. For DRAM, that was a problem in 18 nanometer node. Also, in the case of NAND, 96 layers technology doesn't go so well. In the case of logic device, 7 nano node might be skipped, strictly go to 5 nanometer node. That's what is happening for each application. From your viewpoint, what are the technological hurdles to cause pushouts?

Masahiko Ishino
Analyst, Tokai Tokyo Research Center

And I think several problems are being solved, but do you make some proposal to solve those problems causing pushouts? Could you give us some comments on that technology issue, please? It's a bit difficult for me to give you the specific answer to that. I'm not in the position to give you the technology issues, and for the details, I'm not able to get the information. That's the reality. However, it is just a matter of process tuning. There is no need to change the materials or change the device structure. The problem is not that significant. That's what I heard. If that is the case, in three months or in six months, pushout will be completed and you can solve the problems by carrying out some process tuning. That's the current status of problem according to your understanding. Is that correct? Yes. That's how I understand the situation.

Toshiki Kawai
President and CEO, Tokyo Electron

I have one follow-up question. As for the flat-panel display, Gen 10.5, there are some pushouts. That's what you said earlier. What is, again, the technology issue make the pushout? Is making the pushouts, or I just heard because of several issues, construction of factories is delayed. That is the reason why there are some pushout. Is that correct understanding? Well, some of the customers are now revisiting their CapEx. Thank you very much. Any other questions from the floor? Maybe second question will do. Yes, coming back to the earlier gentleman, the gentleman in the front row, please. I am Ogawa from Goldman Sachs Japan. 2019, 2020, you said there is no change in big picture, but in the past 2019, NAND investment will be increasing. That's what you said earlier.

Satoru Ogawa
Analyst, Goldman Sachs Japan

Mr. Kawai, when you discuss with your clients, what sort of message you got from the customer? Next year and on, if the NAND price and NAND profitability, what sort of comments do your customers have? At present, NAND price is going down, but still customers are willing to invest in the NAND. Actually, there is a big demands in principle for NAND. The scaling investment for scaling is a major driver for NAND flash. The investment to the 9X-layer is dominant. I am sorry. This is not scaling, the layer stacking, I should say. For beyond 2019, for the purpose of the layer stacking, not for the green field, the investment will be continuing for the purpose of this layer stacking. Is that correct understanding for 3D NAND clients? They are mainly investing to introduce 9X generation.

Toshiki Kawai
President and CEO, Tokyo Electron

This fiscal year, some clients already started the investment for 9X-layer generation, but there are some customers to shift the existing production line to produce 9X-layer generation, or some other customers want to invest in new production lines. If that's the case, for NAND manufacturer, they are concerned about the profitability when they make an investment decision. Is that correct? Yes. Every customer is always concerned about profitability. That's the reason why we are observing continuous stable growth in the market. The demand itself is rather big. I am Tsuneishi. Let me answer to your question. When you look at the market view, I don't know whether my view is correct or not, but now we have the data center and big data drives NAND, DRAM, and logic because they are servers. There is a drastic growth in the area.

Tetsuo Tsuneishi
Representative Director and Chairman of the Board, Tokyo Electron

When you look at customer CapEx timing, in some cases, they are making investment decision in order to improve yield or to introduce new technologies. In reality, for each quarter, customers are looking at the EPS and operating profit margin, and many clients which are very much concerned about EPS and operating profit margin are now investing. Customers do not like to see any decline in EPS or profitability, and that's how they make a decision when to invest. Maybe that should be the appropriate way to look at the market at present. Demand itself, for example, data centers, probably, I personally think, unlimited bit demand exists in the market. In the future, when 5G is introduced, we will see more and more demand and more data centers are to be established.

Beyond 2020, we'll see much data, and data traffic will be increasing rapidly in every part of the world. As I said earlier in the previous meeting, when it comes to CapEx or investment for the customer, so when they invest some money, they want to see the solid returns. They are making decision to invest when they are sure they can get return from the investment. For Chinese emerging customers, you may think differently. However, the major DRAM vendors, NAND flash vendors, and logic device vendors, all those major players are essentially looking at profitability, EPS, as well as the operating profit margin. Those are three parameters are the core when they make a plan for investment. There is no concern about decline in bit demands for few years to come. There is not major concern.

Toshiki Kawai
President and CEO, Tokyo Electron

When the price dropped so suddenly or drastically in the future, and if customers' EPS will be declining, they may decide not to invest so much. When it comes to bit demands, there should be no concern. There is no need to concern about as well as big data era takes place. That's how I view the market right now. Thank you very much. I am Kawai, and I would like to add some more comments. Recently, when I talk with our customers, actually, customers are always looking at their business strategy when we discuss with customer. Actually, I have been working with Tokyo Electron for over the past 30 years. In the past, customers are just focusing on increasing their market share. Right now, currently, customers always think about their business strategy or business plan when they talk with us.

Koichi Hirayama
General Manager of IR Department, Tokyo Electron

As Mr. Tsuneishi said earlier, I quite agree with him. Thank you very much. Thank you very much for your question. It's time for us close this financial announcement. Once again, thank you very much for joining us despite your very busy schedule.