I am Yamaguchi, Deputy CFO of Sompo Holdings. Today, I am going to explain the overview of the results of the third quarter of FY 2023, centering mainly on numbers. With regards to the management recognition on the Big motor issue, as well as cartel issue, response to them in the future, the direction of the next midterm management plan based on them, and the business strategies are going to be explained in the IR meeting scheduled tomorrow, mainly by Mr. Okumura, the new Group CEO from April. Now, please turn to page three of the presentation material. There are three key points we'd like to communicate today. First, adjusted consolidated profit increased by JPY 159.1 billion - JPY 242.6 billion up until the third quarter of FY 2023.
This is a record high in terms of the quarterly profit of the third quarter, and the progress rate towards the full year guidance is 86%, which is very good. Drivers for the big profit increase were the absence of the COVID-19 impact in domestic P&C insurance business and the domestic life business, and growth of underwriting income and the net investment income in overseas insurance and the reinsurance business. Second, we kept the full year guidance for FY 2023 unchanged at JPY 280 billion from the beginning of the year. As I have just explained, we have made a very good progress so far up until the third quarter, and the flash report indicates that our overseas insurance business has resulted in the higher results than the plan for the full year on the local currency basis.
On the other hand, the progress of domestic P&C insurance business has been in line with the guidance so far in terms of natural catastrophes and large losses. However, considering the fact that we need to keep our eyes on the incurred loss and others in the automobile insurance business continuously, we have not changed the full year projection. Last point is about the capital policy. From the balance sheet management perspectives, we sold stocks held by the holdings partially, which had around JPY 60 billion in positive impact on the after-tax profit as we made a public release in December last year. As you are all aware, the capital gains from the sale do not affect consolidated adjusted profit. However, ESR has risen a little bit as a result of the sale.
Based on the investors' expectation and others, we are studying to use generated capital for growth investments in the next medium-term management plan, and also use a part of it for the shareholders' return to improve the capital efficiency furthermore. We are going to decide on these points by May, when we announce the full year results and communicate to you then. Let me add that based on the increase in the share price, expansion of the investors' base, and for the improvement in the liquidity of our shares, we have announced today a one to three stock split with a record date of the end of March 2024. On the next page onwards, I am going to explain the key points of the current situation of the domestic P&C insurance business, as well as overseas insurance business. Please turn to page four.
First is the status of auto insurance, natural disasters, and the major accidents in the domestic P&C business. For auto insurance, the accident rate for December 2023 increased 3.6% year to date versus the previous year. Due to the impact of the year-on-year increase in October to November, the accident rate has been slightly higher than the assumption of the full year forecast. However, it has slowed down, a tendency to slow down as it turned downward in the single month of December. As for the repair cost per unit, the year-to-date figure as of the end of December 2023 was up 5.3% from the previous year, almost in line with the full year forecast. Natural disasters and major accidents continued to progress within the full year budget.
Many people are still in a difficult situation following the Noto Peninsula earthquake that occurred on New Year's Day, and we have increased our personnel to respond to the situation so that we can deliver insurance benefits to our policyholders as soon as possible. On the other hand, in terms of financial performance, natural disasters remain within the budgeted range for the full year, even taking into account the impact of this earthquake and the snow damage through January. We cannot, of course, be optimistic about the next one and a half months. However, at this point, we expect the full year impact of natural disaster to land nearly our budget. The full year impact of major accidents is estimated to be JPY 33 billion, but as of January, the impact is about JPY 25 billion, meaning approximately 70% of the forecast. Please move to page five.
The following is a preliminary, but an estimate of our overseas insurance business for the full year of FY 2023. We expect to achieve a record high adjusted profit of JPY 163.1 billion in FY 2023, a significant increase. In addition, on a dollar basis, mainly due to fewer natural disasters than budgeted, higher investment income, and the recognition of deferred tax assets following the introduction of corporate income tax in Bermuda, the adjusted profit exceeded the full year forecast. At the same time, Sompo International has taken a conservative approach and strengthened its reserves in Q4 in light of the current social inflation and other conditions. As shown in the graph on the right, rate increases and the thorough underwriting for profitability brought about the steady decline in the base loss ratio.
We assume that profitability and the profit stability will further increase in the following years and beyond. This is the outline of the performance of FY 2023. As I mentioned at the beginning of this presentation, I recognize that the group as a whole is making steady progress. At tomorrow's briefing, Okumura, as the main speaker, will explain the direction of the management strategy for the next mid-term management plan. In any case, we will continue to aim for steady growth and enhance our corporate value over the mid- to long-term basis, and we hope that you will continue to look forward to our efforts. This is the end of my explanation. Mr. Yamaguchi, thank you.
Now we'd like to start the Q&A session. First, Mr. Muraki from SMBC Nikko Securities, please.
Hi, this is Muraki from SMBC Nikko Securities. Thank you so much for taking my questions. My first question is on the automobile insurance business in Japan. I'm on page 18. According to your presentation, the frequency was worse than your expectation in October and November, but in December, the frequency was better than you expected. I think this indicates a trend change, but would you please give me more color on the trend on the frequency of the automobile business, including the forecast? My second question is on the premium increase, which is under review. Would you please offer me more comments on the necessity and the timing of the premium increase, which is under review? That's my first question.
Kuroda speaking. Muraki-san, thank you so much for your questions. First, in the automobile insurance business, you talked about the repair cost per unit, but the repair cost per unit has been trending according to the plan, and so the frequency is going to be the attention point. If you look at page four, on the left-hand side, we are showing the frequency and the number of reported claims as a trend. The frequency forecast for the full year is 2.5%. In fact, frequency was a little bit more in the first half, and in the second half, we are expecting frequency to go up by about 1%. The following is not directly linked, but if you look at the number of reported claims below, in October and November, it was high, and in December, trend reversed a little bit.
On the flash report basis, just for your information, the number of reported claims was down by about 1% in January. So in terms of the frequency, as things will trend as they have been trending, I think we can catch up to some extent. That's where we are at the moment. In terms of the premium increase, as of today, there's nothing that has been determined officially, so we cannot really assert one or the other. But after recovering the credibility from various issues and responding to various issues, after that, as soon as possible, we'd like to increase the premiums to the appropriate level, reflecting the current inflation pace. So we are currently reviewing various options. That's the status as of today.
Thank you so much. You mentioned that, big business direction is going to be explained in the IR meeting tomorrow, but my next question is on the Strategically Held Equity Stocks. In your case, the balance of Strategically Held Equity Stocks is smaller compared to other companies, but still, looking at the risk profile, exposure to Strategically Held Equity Stocks is pretty large. So regardless of big motor issue, but, considering the cartel issues and so forth, including all of that, would you please comment on the potential acceleration of the sale of equities stocks? And MS and AD has stepped up their comment on it, so would you please, give me more comments, on, on that particular issue?
Yes. Thank you so much. With regards to the equity stocks, on December 26th, Japanese FSA has issued the business improvement order to us, and that report indicated the fact that we have exposure to strategically held equity stocks as a traditional custom. Just recently, the minister commented on this issue, and the regulators' interest and the regulators' involvement is becoming stronger these days. As a matter of course, the management team of our company has been the front runner trying to reduce the strategically held equity stocks up to now. Also, in the last fiscal year, we tried to reduce the exposure to 20% of the equity. As I mentioned earlier, based upon the background, we are reviewing, studying the strengthening of the sale of equity stocks by accelerating the pace of sale. That's under the review by the management.
So that's the direction that I can comment today, but tomorrow, in the IR meeting, the management team may be able to give you more detailed explanation. So I'm going to hand the rest of this topic to the management team tomorrow. Understood. Thank you so much. Looking forward to hearing from the management team on this tomorrow. Mr. Muraki, thank you so much.
So the next is Mr. Sato of JP Morgan Securities.
Well, this is Sato of JP Morgan. Thank you very much. I have two questions. So the first question is: well, for the current fiscal year or for this time, you have included in the financial result of the big sell-down of the Palantir stock. Well, those, the reason for that, I liquidated the stock is because probably before the sell-down, the mark-to-market value was about JPY 200 billion, so probably the concentration risk in one company was too big. Is that the reason why you decided to reduce your stake ownership? If that's the case, the Palantir stock price is still upswinging, even compared to the time that you made the disposal. So that the number of shares has decreased, of course. However, the further sell-down is the possibility, dependent upon the stock price movement going forward? That's the first question.
Thank you very much for your question. Well, regarding the Palantir stock price, as Sato-san just mentioned, for us, we needed to think about the level of the risk on our balance sheet and also preparation for the volatility of the mark-to-market value. And when we see the stock price is coming back, we've made the decision to sell down. Well, there were some voices that we heard from the investors about what we are going to do with that particular stock. So that was one of the reasons that we made the judgment. And as you said, the stock price has been coming up to really high level, as high as over $20.
So thinking about the risk on the balance sheet, and of course, while thinking about maintenance of our relationship with the Palantir, we still own about 40% of the shares that we have purchased, so that for the future, at some point of time, we might make the judgment of sell down again.
Thank you very much. And then my question number two is for the overseas insurance business that you have strengthened the reserves. At the time of the plan revision, I think you have already factored that in, and this time, when we look at the figures, it's $575 million, which seems pretty big. So can you be much more specific? You talked about that you needed to respond to the social inflation, but this reserve is for which lines? You've mentioned conservatively, meaning that there is an expectation you have for the future release. So when you say conservative, it may be difficult for you to quantify, but by which means you are saying conservative? Can you provide some color on this?
Thank you very much for your question, Sato-san. Well, this time we have strengthened our reserve in order to strengthen our stability of the profit for the following years, so this was a positive action. What was included in there is for the policy portfolio of before 2019, the casualty and something close to longer-tail contracts. Well, as some of the media has mentioned, well, under the pandemic, the economic reopening have been making the progress. In light of that, we thought that we are in a little bit of the short.
Of course, there are some calculations done by the actuaries of our company, and also the audit firm has been looking at that. So within the certain range, for us, we think we have come to the level that we have made it stronger. Just thinking about the sense of the relief that the people will be able to feel, we have come up to this reserve level. There were some positive impacts, so that for the year 2023, on the flash report, we have seemed to land at a higher level, more than the budget.
Okay. Thank you very much. Understood.
Next questions are from Mr. Watanabe from Daiwa Securities. Please go ahead.
Hi, this is Watanabe from Daiwa Securities. Thank you so much for taking my questions. My first question is on the progress of the adjusted profit, which is 86%, which is very high. What is the reason why you did not revise your guidance upward? And also, you said natural catastrophes have been within the budget, but would you please give me the estimated loss from the Noto Peninsula earthquake and heavy snow in Kanto in January?
Mr. Watanabe, thank you so much. We did not change our guidance at JPY 280 billion. We didn't change it. And if you look at the breakdown by business, nursing care and the seniors, and the digital business has been trending in accordance with the plan.
Our overseas business, as shown on that page, on the yen basis, JPY 163 billion, and the base of the business has been increasing, but there is an impact from the exchange rate. So I think, it's been trending below about JPY 5 billion, which is visible at the moment. Then, the rest is Japanese P&C business, and our assumption is JPY 58 billion in terms of the guidance. Up to the third quarter, we have down JPY 75 billion. So you may think that, we can overachieve it, but, in our opinion, I think we are on track, roughly speaking, towards our guidance of JPY 58 billion in the domestic P&C business. Two perspectives: first, compared to Q3, the profit in Q4 would not increase as much compared to Q3 because of, number one, seasonality.
For example, in the investment side of the business, we have dividends from equity stocks, which fall into the third quarter. Also, as you asked, natural catastrophes do not tend to happen so much in the third quarter, and there are many non-cat assumptions in Q4, and also, due to the timing of the non-personnel cost. This is simply the timing, but there's higher non-personnel cost in Q4, which weigh on the profit in the fourth quarter. That's the first perspective. The second perspective, this JPY 58 billion, which is our guidance, where we are versus this guidance. As I mentioned earlier, frequency in the automobile business was a little bit higher in October and November, which impacts a little bit around low single-digit billions of JPY.
On the other hand, we can control non-personnel costs, so they are controllable expenses. So as a total, JPY 58 billion is, I think, the comfortable guidance at this point. So other than that, probably, what's for sure, is the FX impact. So that would be the variance, and it's up to whether we are going to offset or not. With regards to the natural catastrophes, if you look at page four, on the right-hand side, we are showing the cumulative basis up to January, and in January, it shows JPY 10 billion also loss. And Noto Peninsula earthquake, this is only the early stage assessment, but, in a commercial line, I think impact is estimated to be about JPY 2 billion-JPY 3 billion as of today.
Snow, heavy snow in Kanto in February, on the next day, things recovered quickly in Kanto. So as we can presume, as of today, impact from the heavy snow in Kanto is going to be a few billion JPY, more towards JPY 2 billion or so. It's been pretty warm, like today, so this 104 billion JPY, I think we are running in line with this assumption in total.
Thank you so much. My second question is on the stock split that you announced today. What is your intention of the stock split? And, also, what is your stance on the dividend? You've been increasing the dividend by the unit of 10 JPY at that time. Would you please comment on it? Because I think probability of you being able to increase is quite high.
Thank you so much. In terms of the stock split, there's this minimum investment unit recommended by TSE, which is about JPY 500,000, and this has been the effort-based sort of duty by TSE. And when the share price of a company exceeds 5,000 JPY, and now it exceeds this minimum investment unit bar of JPY 500 billion for the first time after a while. But when the share price exceeds 7,000 JPY and being close to 8,000 JPY, then the minimum investment tradable unit is going to be quite large. And the Tokyo Marine has done the stock split two years ago. So the management made a decision to respond to this issue this time.
The background of that is, as TSE mentioned, this is for retail investors, so that they feel attracted by our share, investing in our share, and the liquidity improves, and the valuation will improve by this. Because of that, we made a decision to do the stock split. You asked me about a dividend, and there's no dividend policy change due to the stock split per se, no change as of today. So we are going to continue with the current shareholders' return policy, and our dividend has been on the increasing trend every year. So we are trying to enhance shareholders' returns every year. That is our policy. So in accordance with that policy, we'd like to gradually and steadily increase our dividend.
Understood. Thank you so much.
Next is Sasaki-san of Nomura Securities.
This is Sasaki of Nomura Holdings. I have two questions. The first one is about the page three. You explained that the holdings sold the shares and gained JPY 60 billion of the profit. In the next midterm plan, this gain is going to be used for the future growth for the midterm, next midterm plan. Well, this event actually happened in March 2024, the fiscal March 2024. However, the proceeds are deployed for the next midterm plan period, not for the fiscal March 2024. What is the reason?
Well, the actual capitalization as cash was the month of December, so that was around the timing of almost in the fourth quarter. So whether it was possible for us to make the decision-making was probably the release of the shareholder return. The other options for the deployment of the cash, for example, for future growth or other options are currently in the process of examination by the leadership team. So, for the next year, and also the next mid-term plan is going to be starting in the next fiscal year. So what kind of a strategy we are going to show? Well, as I mentioned earlier, the partially it may be used for the shareholder return, and our management team has the better direction. We think we'll be able to explain more in details in May. Did I answer your question?
Understood. Thank you. So the shareholder return for the fiscal 2024, the March 2024, is not getting direct impact, is that correct?
Well, our shareholder return will be based upon the result of March 2024, and will be paid in May. So the partial Palantir's stock sell-down may be deployed for the share repurchase. So that's gonna be a return of the shareholders to the fiscal March 2024.
Thank you. Now, about page 5, there was another question in a previous person about the provision of the reserves. The amount is pretty good. Was it included in the initial plan? Because when I look at this number from one through four on this page, well, probably you ended up with the results with the upside. And because of the buffer or the upside, have you decided to use that for the soundness of the balance sheet? Is that correct? If you could answer my question, thank you very much.
Well, as for the reserves, well, of course, we have thought from a lot of lenses and provided for at an appropriate level, and after the first half, there were some additions. As a result, by the end of the fiscal year, the level of the reserve has achieved a stronger level in a conservative zone, so that we think we have done in an appropriate range. Well, other factors are all independent, so that, of course, each of them has been made as in forecast or get returns for investment. So as a result of that, as you see on this page, we have landed at the U.S. dollar base of $1,150. Well, if my explanation is not sufficient, then we will have Jim Shea of Overseas Business is going to attend tomorrow's meeting.
Oh, Kuroda-san, thank you very much. I understood.
Thank you very much.
Next questions are from Mr. Okada from UBS Securities. Please go ahead.
Hi, this is Okada from UBS Securities. I have a question about, SI, your overseas operations. Looking at, SI in commercial line in particular, would you please give me your projection of the premium increase against your plan of 4% premium increase? In Q4, your result was 5.4% premium increase. And, looking at the U.S. business structure, I think Sompo has been making a positive comment on it. So looking forward, would you please give me your view of the forecasted premium increase in the commercial line of SI? If possible, would you please give me your breakdown by property and casualty?
Thank you so much. First, overall, the premiums for property lines have been, hardening. This strong hardening trend is still continuing, and casualty and specialty areas, which are the main business areas of SI, the premiums are on the increasing trend. On the other hand, there are specific business areas such as D&O, where competition is being intensified, therefore, premiums have been on the declining trend. That's the reality in some areas. But, looking at overall, the sentiment has not really changed so much. However, since three to four years ago, the magnitude of hardening has become milder and milder. So in this trend, in any event, the premiums are on the increasing trend overall. In any event, we would like to set the premiums at the appropriate level to offset the inflation cost.
So we'd like to set the premiums at the appropriate level, and, I think you have to wait until the result announcement of the Q1 of SI. But, when we announce our result of Q1, we are going to give you more color.
Thank you so much. My next question is on the follow-up question, and this is something that probably you're going to disclose from now on. But, do you think you can realistically assume premium increase continuously at a level of 3%-4% in the next fiscal year, or is it not so easy? What is your feel?
Thank you so much for your question. Well, considering the inflation ratio, I think that would be the rough level that we have to really consider. When we announce our results, we are going to announce our guidance. We are going to reflect our view in the guidance and explain them.
Understood. Thank you so much.
Mr. Okada, thank you so much.
Next is Mr. Otsuka of SBI Securities.
Thank you very much. I am Otsuka of SBI Securities. Well, I'm not really, I don't really have a question about the financial results, but my question is, what's the purpose of this conference call? Because conventionally, you have not had any call for Q1 and Q3, but this time you have it. Why? Is it because you have had the good progress so that you wanted to communicate that result to the market? Or you decided to change frequency and do the call each quarter?
Well, thank you for the question. This is Yamaguchi answering your question. So this time, it is kind of exceptional. As a schedule, well, it was the first half result of the November that was extended to tomorrow. Well, for all of you, you must be very busy with a lot of an IR meetings and the financial reportings coming. But, for the financial reportings with the figures, we thought that it is a good opportunity that we provide to show the figures today, so that tomorrow, we can more focus on the strategy part for the Q&As. That was the purpose of having the call for the third quarter.
Okay. So tomorrow's IR meeting is going to be more on the strategy part then. Okay, thank you very much.
Mr. Otsuka, thank you.
Next questions are from Mr. Sakamaki, from Mizuho Securities. Please go ahead.
Hi, this is Sakamaki from Mizuho Securities. I have one question on the SI business overseas, in particular in the commercial side of the business, excluding natural catastrophe loss. My question is on the general loss. The natural catastrophes have been below your expectation, but general loss have been probably above your expectation. What is your take and feel on the trend of general losses in SI, in commercial?
Thank you so much. In principle, we've been increasing the premiums up until now, which are well reflected in the earned premiums. In that sense, looking at the level of general losses, the level has been at a level that is positive on expanding the profit.
And looking at our results up to the third quarter, natural catastrophes seem to be improving because of the big natural catastrophe, which was Ian, in the last fiscal year, and absence of that is the improvement factor. And secondly, in the crop insurance, agri insurance business, the drought last year has developed, which is impacting in this fiscal year. It's not going to impact in the next fiscal year, but we have that development from the drought last year. So excluding that, normal losses have been at the level that is profitable for SI in commercial.
Understood. So can I understand that you do not have any plan to change your underwriting policy in the next fiscal year onward, or you do not plan to review your underwriting policy overseas?
Well, however, we are trying to expand our businesses, we are trying to expand region, regions, and we are trying to enhance the region diversification effect, so we are going to take various initiatives. But in terms of the discipline, it's going to stay the same. We are not going to change the discipline, which is to prioritize on the bottom line profit.
Understood. Thank you so much.
Are there any other questions? So we'd like to conclude the Q&A session. If you have follow-up questions, please contact IR department of Sompo Holdings. Thank you so much for participating in this call.