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Earnings Call: Q2 2020

Oct 31, 2019

Speaker 1

First, on page four, the cash equities market trends are shown here. The first half market trends, I would like to look back on in a very broad brush manner. What is surrounded in red lines is the first half cash equities average daily trading value. What is surrounded in a blue dotted line is the previous year's first half's cash equities average daily trading value. If we are to break this down, the numbers for each of the markets are shown here. In a nutshell, on a year-on-year basis, this term was -13%. I'm sure you are well aware that stock prices were not bad, but the liquidity or the value has declined considerably. As a result, the trading value has declined. That is the actual situation. In particular, over here, June and July, the level here is such that stock prices are rising.

If we just focus on the liquidity aspect, it's the situation we found at the end of the Democratic Party era. Compared to those times, the stock prices are high. In terms of value, it's not bad, but a considerable decline is what we have seen. As a result, on a value basis, year-on-year, minus or negative 13.5% is the situation. After this performance forecast correction, I'll be referring to that in detail later, but let me talk about the future forecast, preempting what I'm going to say later on. As I said before, stock prices are doing fine, but it's the liquidity that is not catching up and falling behind. TSE equity section, inclusive of that, we've done interviews and so forth.

In terms of outlook, the situation is difficult. It will probably take time for us to find us in a situation that we saw one year or two years ago. In the second half, we corrected so that the performance outlook is pretty much the same as first half. Temporarily, next year, there's the U.S. presidential elections and various events we expect will happen. What we've seen here, one month on an average basis, the value exceeded JPY 4 trillion at that time. It'll take some time before we see a similar situation. That is how we feel at the moment. On derivatives, next. Nikkei 225 mini is what I'd like to use representing the others. The changes in units are shown here. The line graph shows volatility.

This part is the contract numbers by product, and this is a year-on-year number of contracts. Derivatives are such that on the corresponding period of the previous year, it was stagnant. On a year-on-year basis, if we compare, in the first half, it was a positive 8.9%, so it's not too bad. We had the situation right before the Golden Week in Japan, and President Trump, in relation to the US-China trade friction, has tweeted. Because of this, we were able to do well in the derivatives. 10-year JGB futures, US interest rates trends included resulted in trading ballooning and growing. Recently, JGB futures are seeing a decent number of contracts. Based on all of this first half operating revenue is what we'd like to look at.

On the very left, the red bar graph shows Q2 FY 2018, and we've shown the graphs on the right-hand side as if they were steps. The cash equities year-on-year declined over 10%, and cash equities trading value has gone down. Derivatives year-on-year has seen a growth in trading. There's a positive figure here. The cash equities decline was big. In net terms, negative JPY 1.7 billion is what we have. As for clearing services, it's basically the same as here. Why we have positive figures here is that OTC clearing is growing considerably, and IRS interest rate swap clearing is positive. OTC JGB clearing, we have seen pretty much positive figures there. In net terms, over JPY 200 million of positive figures is what we have. On listing services, negative JPY 200 million. Perhaps this warrants some explanation. Firstly, the upper part, initial and additional listing fees.

There are several factors. IPO in the first half compared to the previous year has seen somewhat of a decline. For the entire year, we will probably end up pretty much on the same level as last year. The first half was not very good, but we will catch up, we feel, in the second half, and that's where we find ourselves. On the other hand, changes in listing. For example, from Mothers to first section. Movement in this way, move from the second section to the first section. Perhaps there'll be a discussion related to the market structure review. Some people are taking probably a wait and see attitude. On annual listing fees, there's a trick here. There's somewhat of a decline here. First half from listed companies, we have annual listing calculation on a market cap basis.

Last year-end, end of December, we used the stock prices to calculate the first half figures as of end of December last year. That was when stock prices declined considerably. Nikkei Average probably fell below 20,000 or so. We've used stock prices from there. That's why we're seeing a decline. In the second half this year, we will be using this year's December end stock prices. If we proceed at the present level, we'll see some improvement. On information services revenue, there's a continuous rise here, index license fee income is the substance there. BOJ buys ETF and TOPIX linked ETF. When BOJ buys this, the revenue will go up. As for others, that's mostly colocation and arrownet. The trading participants and information vendors are connected through this network, the usage fee is on the rise. In particular, the network.

We have customers that are changing from narrow to wider lines, and so there is a commensurate increase in revenue. As a result, all told, year-on-year, JPY 1.3 billion is the decline. In terms of percentage, -2.2%. That's operating revenue.

Next is the situation regarding operating expenses. Here, the situation is similar, where we are making comparison year-on-year using the step chart. You can see that expenses have gone up for almost all items. Just a point of caution, we have done some reclassification of numbers to make it possible for comparison. We have actually reclassified numbers to enable continuous comparison. I think this is probably better for you to be able to make comparison with the previous numbers. We have reclassified numbers a little bit to that respect. Personnel expenses, and it's probably the same for other companies as well, but overall, this has been increasing, and also the headcount has been increasing. Also, based on the actual result from last fiscal year, we have paid out bonuses, and that has picked up a little bit as well.

Next is related to real estate. This has also increased as well. This has already been disclosed, which is to do with the rent for this building. From this fiscal year, the increase is JPY 300 million per annum. Heiwa Real Estate has already disclosed this, so I have referred to this number. That's JPY 176 million of increase over the first half of the year. System maintenance and operation expenses. We are currently moving the backup data center from Tokyo to the Kansai region, so there are some costs incurred in that respect. In November this year, the cash equity matching engine, which is arrowhead, we expect to renew this. arrowhead, this is expected to start operation from next week. We have some increases in expenses associated with that too.

With regards to depreciation, we are continuing to make investment on the systems. Also related to the backup for Kansai as well, has led to some increases here. With regards to business integration with TOCOM, in the area of systems, we may require some new investment. There is an element of accelerated depreciation here. In the case of TOCOM, they also really provide the front, the trading system, so that's okay. In terms of clearing, as we are going to the future, the TOCOM's, the clearing house is JCCH, and this will be merged together with our clearing, the institution, which is JSCC. As a result of that integration, there is some requirement for system investment. In the area of others, this is purely FA expenses or lawyers' expenses related to the integration with TOCOM.

In terms of the expense structure on a year-on-year basis, we've seen an increase of about JPY 1.3 billion, and that is about 4.9% in terms of increase year-on-year. As a result, and I apologize for the slide being somewhat busy, but the operating income and net income on a year-on-year basis, in terms of operating income, about 7%, and for net income, a little bit more, almost 10% decreases on a year-on-year basis. As I said previously as well, EBITDA, because of our system investment, we are seeing increase in depreciation. As for cash flow, this has not come down all that significantly. Roughly speaking, that is the overview of the earnings for the first half of the fiscal year. I would now like to talk about, explain about the forecast, the change or revision using this slide.

The cash equities and derivatives are the trading, both the volume and value. Right at the top is the cash equities. Like I explained before, in the first half of fiscal 2019, we have results from there. There is a forecast that was announced at the beginning of the fiscal year for the full year, which is JPY 3.3 trillion per day. That's more or less the similar level to 2018. That was our initial assumption. By the end of the first half of the year, we ended up with JPY 2.8 trillion, which has come down quite significantly. Frankly speaking, the current expectation for the stock trading value, to make the forecasting is quite difficult.

We have been doing this recently, but we more or less use the number from the first half of the year for the forecast for the second half of the year as well. Say, for example, President Trump, in the new year, he will do various things, trying to be reelected, and that may lead to increase in the trading value. That could potentially change, but we have used the actual numbers from the first half of the year for the forecast for the second half of the year. The consequence, the full year trading value has come down. That is the situation with regards to cash equities. For derivatives as well, we have reflected the actual from the first half of the year and reviewed the numbers for the second half of the year.

For the derivatives, we're expecting only a slight decline and not a significant decline. Little bit of a concern is the Nikkei 225 Options. This is one of the biggest earners amongst the derivatives products. If this comes down, that will tend to lower our revenue more so than others. This here is the operating revenue numbers here. In terms of operating revenue, at the beginning of the year, we had anticipated JPY 121 billion. We have downwardly adjusted the market assumptions, and as a consequence, we are now assuming JPY 117 billion. Here, the second half of the consolidated P&L of TOCOM is included, though the number is very small, so the impact is very limited. There is a sum of those numbers that are reflected into this forecast.

With regards to the operating expenses, at the beginning of the fiscal year, we said that we are expecting JPY 58 billion. That was the expense that we had assumed. We have revised this up to JPY 59.5 billion. Let me break this down in some more detail. Every year, when the trades of the first half of the year comes below our assumption, then we implement cost control, and we have been suppressing expenses previously. We are doing this this year as well, but at the same time, there are expenses related to TOCOM integration, and there is certain amount being generated there. As a consequence, we have not been able to decrease this very much.

Added to that, TOCOM was the second half of the year has also been consolidated, and that is the reason we have come to this number, which is JPY 59.5 billion. As a consequence, the operating income will be JPY 60 billion, and net income will be JPY 42 billion. That is the revised forecast. When you change the market, the assumptions, it will have impact on changing the revenues and also profit. There could be the possibility of us overachieving this forecast or, in fact, coming under the forecast level as well. If we see the situation continuing to the second half of the year as we observed in the first half of the year, we may, or we are likely to end up at the forecast that we have revised to. That is the core message regarding the earnings forecast.

This completes my explanation of the overview, and I would like to receive any questions.