UNIQA Insurance Group AG (VIE:UQA)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2022

Nov 17, 2022

Operator

Good day, welcome to the UNIQA Group results of the first to the third quarter 2022 conference call. Please note today's conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Kurt Svoboda. Please go ahead.

Kurt Svoboda
CFO and Chief Risk Officer, UNIQA Group

Thank you much, and welcome to UNIQA's presentation of the first nine months results 2022. I go directly to page number five of the presentation, which is available via the website of UNIQA. It's a snapshot of the nine months. It shows us that we have a very good development on the profitability. The consolidated profit increased by three percentage points in relation to the year 2021. It has several effects. Let's start on the top line with a 2.3% growth, which is of course driven by inflation and by indexation. I will come to that in a minute. On the other hand, also the operating sales efforts have been very stable and are good after the nine months. We see no impact so far from the economy.

The next topic is the net invested income, which is EUR 370 million plus. Of course, less than in the year 2021. Still, we have impairments on the Russian bonds, plus the other impairments. I will explain this in the section where we talk about net investment income. A very prospective development on the operating expenses. Admin costs are down by 10%. Commissions are increasing. This has to do with the one hand with the growth, and on the other hand, we have here also an effect of different acquisition costs as we are recording and accounting the SGEP vendors. This leads us then to an insurance technical result of around EUR 130 million and earnings before tax 275 percentage points. Coming to the ratios.

Combined ratio is 94.4%, which is the best single quarter in this year. Even in comparison with other quarters, we have a very prospective development on the P&C side within this quarter. This despite the effects of inflation. Investment yield at 2.4 percentage points. The new money yield, which we report on this side, is around 4 percentage points for this year for the whole group. The next page, number six. Two things that jump on into the eye is on the one hand, the good combined ratio is 234 percentage points. You know that we have according to our health business, the ELR topic, especially in the health business. This helps us in that case.

That was obviously ratio jumped up to 234 percentage points. On the other hand, the internal net yield with a nice 12.6 percentage points. This has to do, of course, with the OCI development over the last nine months. As an introduction and an overview about the results in the after nine months. Coming to page number seven, Ukraine and Russia war here. We can state that on the one hand, the impairments that we had in the first half year, EUR 128 million roughly, has been lowered to EUR 104 million. That means we have some write-ups because of the better performance of the Russian bonds that we impaired after six months.

EUR 104 million is the amount that is included in the first quarter. Besides, we can state that still we are ongoing on the discussion and on the calculation and on the strategic options that we have with Russia. I think by the end of the year, we will have the decision how to proceed with our entity in Moscow. Coming to the group results, page number nine. I talked about the growth, right, 4.3% based on the gross written premium. This mainly happens in Austria and around 2% international-wise. What is important to know, here in Austria there's a 1.5% inflation impact and international business around two percentage point inflation impact that is embedded. Jumping to the cost ratio. The cost ratio itself increased.

This has to do with the commissions, as I stated before. On the one hand, following the premium. On the other hand, impact of acquisition. It's more important for us is that the acquisition costs are lowering and in relation to 2021 are improving. Even they are, you know, our internal branches, but we have a nice development from our cost side. P&C, page number 11. We have the development of the combined ratio. What I can state is that on the one hand, we have the best single combined ratio on a group organization. What I can state also is that our claims ratio within the group combined ratio has improved significantly. It's also visible that we have a better situation in the motor premium and on the last top line.

Overall improvement for our own entities and concern segments Austria and internationally wide. Plus also expected that the costs that generally are increasing are also moving on the cost ratio side on the P&C combined ratio. Jumping to the next slide, which is the investment activity on page number 12. In here besides that what I said so far, what's also included is in our result that we had some other payments as it is a group having to do with the increase of the interest rate. Of course, it has also significant impact on the valuation of real estate and fund investments. Overall, we can talk about here on around EUR 65 million impact that is shown in the results of 2022 of the nine months coming from accounting and valuation from several funds.

New money I talked about, nothing more change, RBI stable in that case. With a 2.7% general investment yield, we can state that we have a promising development in the area. So far the activities and the summary in a nutshell. To sum it up is on the one hand a very good development on the safe side. Stable position, so we see in that case also no changes in the fourth quarter. A very good technical profitability in all three business lines, health, P&C and life. I stop here before we come then to the outlook and open up the meeting for questions and discussions. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question from the queue, please press star two. Again, star one to ask a question. We will take the first question from Rok Stibric from RBI. Please go ahead.

Rok Stibrič
Equity Analyst, RBI

Hi. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. You had a strong combined ratio of 93.3% in the quarter, especially given the inflationary pressure. Could you maybe share more light how can we think of it in the coming quarters and maybe what can we expect in the future? Second question would be regarding the current income in the third quarter. Is this solely driven by the rising interest rate environment, or were there some additional aspects? Last question that I have is regarding the guidance. Previously, you've been providing a quantified guidance, and I understand that it's not possible due to uncertainty this year. However, do you plan to continue publishing quantified guidance again in fiscal year 2023 or after? Thank you.

Kurt Svoboda
CFO and Chief Risk Officer, UNIQA Group

Let's start with question number one, talking about combined ratio, the outlook. We believe that we can achieve a combined ratio in total which is better than the results that you saw on nine months. That means we can imagine that the combined ratio goes down even in the fourth quarter. Of course, I have to set the disclaimer if there are no major natural events. We have another winter season, but so far no winter is there. That means that still there are some weeks to go. If there are some, I don't know, snowstorms in the Alps or some snow pressure, and things like that can hit also the results.

On normal basis, we see at the moment a very good stable position even up to now, which makes us prospective and comfortable that the combined ratio can go down because costs are clear. With this, the outlook looks a little bit better than Q3 at the moment so far on the group level. Second question was about current income and the driver on that. Yes, on the one hand was the interest rates and the development on the markets that come in, that put us in a position that current income was increasing. On the other hand, we are also investing and reinvesting, and with this, achieving better positions than in the past years. Our strategic asset allocation still has not changed.

Yes, of course, we took also the possibility, if possible, because of the situation on the negative hidden reserves, that we changed the portfolio and switched into higher yielding assets. On the other hand, our strategic asset allocation with infrastructure, ESG, comes from bonds, and with this also for the future, take with us some illiquidity premiums has not changed. On the guidance, we see at the moment two things for 2022, which made us in a way to say, okay, we do not give it quantified at this guidance, but I will give you at once this guidance finally, typically on the one hand the situation on the capital market. The discussion on further increases on the interest rates and ECB impacts on the portfolio of UNIQA.

We are a leading company with epic on the management on the financial sector. There are in that case also some effects that can then be encountered. With this, it makes us very difficult to say how this will show up. The second thing is we operate in Russia and in Ukraine, and in this case it is also to consider that there can be some situations like it was two days ago with the situation in Poland. If this turns out differently, this has an impact on the global situation and also on the economy. With this an outlook would be unclear in our position.

What I can tell you is that keeping out those two elements, we see a very prospective development in the fourth quarter and also the better positioning and perspective. For the full year 2023, we will revise planning with the IFRS 17 and we will come up early 2023 with this and give you then with this the guidance on IFRS 17 basis.

Operator

As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one. We'll now move to the next question from Thomas Unger from Erste Group. Please go ahead.

Thomas Unger
Equity Research Analyst, Erste Group

Yes, hello. Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. Just on the outlook next quarter or next quarters 2023, if you could talk a little bit more about the cost pressures that you're facing and how you could mitigate this inflationary pressure and where you see the admin costs especially developing in the next year. Secondly, I'd like to ask about the new sectoral taxes in Hungary, the windfall taxes on the insurance sector also. Was that booked in Q3 already? Is there something to be booked in Q4? When do you expect those expenses to, or which quarter to be hit in then 2023?

You mentioned the new money yield, 4%, I think is what you said in the presentation. Could you be more specific what does that relate to? How do you generate this currently? That will be interesting for me. Also to clarify, I believe you said you will make a decision on your operations in Russia by year end. Is that correct?

Kurt Svoboda
CFO and Chief Risk Officer, UNIQA Group

Hi Thomas. Starting with the last one, yes, that's correct. By the year end we can take it. Starting with the outlook and on mitigation and the cost outlook. Yes, we have some mitigation. Generally we see at the moment the impact on inflation is coming also on the cost side. We have this already within Q3. Of course it will hit maybe less than in 2023, but I come to that in a minute. In our planning, we see on the one hand a inflation scenario for the upcoming year where we see on general basis around 8% what we see on average on inflation impact on the group level. Of course, differently in the countries.

Austria is like the inflation there or in Czech Republic, but 8% in total on average. Mitigation effect that we can do, Thomas, is on the one hand, we are thoroughly thinking on which project makes sense for the future. Maybe also that we could stop some projects or revise them. Second thing is of course on the personal cost side, and that means not each person to be replaced in the future. We have the effect, especially the international segment where we have the last year on the AXA integration, which helps us in that case because we are now working on the IT integration and we see here more compensation effect and more synergies than originally planned. We have a project in our so-called South Eastern European markets.

Those areas, Serbia, so the ex-Yugoslavian area, where we are integrating those five countries into one hub. This also saves around EUR 10 million-EUR 12 million on costs, predominantly personnel costs. You have the topic of contracts and on external factors, even consultancy. This is the mitigation effects that we at the moment see. More guidance and generally then Thomas on the guidance for 2023 as I mentioned, beginning of the next year.

Thomas Unger
Equity Research Analyst, Erste Group

Mitigating effects versus maybe the 8% you assumed for the group. Can I safely assume that you expect to be materially below these 8% on OpEx for next year?

Kurt Svoboda
CFO and Chief Risk Officer, UNIQA Group

No, not the materials. I think when we talk about this, we can say that we mitigate 50-60 percentage points.

Thomas Unger
Equity Research Analyst, Erste Group

Okay, thank you.

Kurt Svoboda
CFO and Chief Risk Officer, UNIQA Group

Usually the Austrian side with collective contract and things like that, you are limited in that respect until the Austrian negotiations on the collective contract are still open. The second tax in Hungary at UNIQA is of around EUR 8 million a year, so we book it on a quarterly basis. That's already included. This is for two years. It's two years 2022 and two years 2023. With this we have hopefully then done this burden. The money we have in the bank is based on fixed income and that's it.

Thomas Unger
Equity Research Analyst, Erste Group

That's 60 from Austria, or is that the 60 for the whole group?

Kurt Svoboda
CFO and Chief Risk Officer, UNIQA Group

It's the whole group.

Thomas Unger
Equity Research Analyst, Erste Group

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

There are currently no further questions, but again, please press star one to ask a question. There are no further questions on the phone. I'd like to hand the call back over to Kurt Svoboda for any closing remarks.

Kurt Svoboda
CFO and Chief Risk Officer, UNIQA Group

Yeah. Thank you. Closing remarks is on the one hand outlook for the year 2022. What we can say that the top line we expect on a resilient basis and accordingly to the first nine months. Secondly, we have continued uncertainty, and this is also applicable for the year 2022-2023. As I mentioned, this is Ukraine, this is Russia, inflation and economic situation arising out of that. For the year 2023, nothing that what I have already stated. The transition to IFRS 9/17 will be done accordingly, and we will come along with this in the beginning of 2023. The basis and this is very important out of the changes in the accounting scheme, we do not think on changing any topics on our UNIQA 3.0 strategy.

The continued focus is to improve the core business no matter in which accounting scheme we do this. Key then for the year 2022, we stick to our already mentioned payout ratio between 50 and 60 percentage points. Thank you for listening and thank you for being with us and have a successful rest of the day.

Operator

Thank you. That concludes this conference call. Thank you for your participation, ladies and gentlemen. You may now disconnect.

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