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Earnings Call: Q3 2021

Nov 10, 2021

Magdalena Kupiec
Head of Investor Relations, Eurocash Group

Good afternoon. Welcome to Eurocash Group third quarter 2021 financial results presentation. Magdalena Kupiec speaking. I'm the head of investor relations, and today with me, Jacek Owczarek, our Group CFO. The plan for today is that Jacek gonna show you presentation of third quarter financial results, and then we're gonna slightly move to the Q&A session. Jacek, please.

Jacek Owczarek
CFO, Eurocash Group

Thank you. Welcome, everybody to the third quarter conference, like Magda said, and we have pleasure to present solid results for this quarter performance. From macroeconomic point of view, I think we started to have first very good signs on the side of our traditional independent clients, especially taking into consideration bigger stores. It seems like the sales in the bigger stores than typical, for example, Cash & Carry clients, came back to pre-pandemic levels and keeps going. Based on this market conditions and also due to our increase in efficiency, we are improving results in all of our segments.

Of course, in each segment we have a little bit different situation, but generally speaking, we are improving it through, for example, digitalization and we keep developing the digital platform together with our independent clients, eurocash.pl. In retail, most awaited improvement this year, it's one of the factors which I will try to present, but also I think it's worth to mention that we keep developing through joint ventures. Yesterday, we signed contract, final contract with a family who was owning Arhelan, and right now we are keeping this company as one additional expansion of our network of Delikatesy Centrum. We are keeping growing organically, of course, through Duży Ben, through Frisco entering new cities.

On top of the quarter also, we delivered solid cash flow, which is above the last year's performance. Also we are keeping, like in many quarters in a row for now, the discipline with working capital and controllable net debt levels. Generally speaking, I think we are very happy with the performance of this quarter. Also I think it's worth to mention at the beginning that beginning of the fourth quarter continues to be promising as well because in October we really recorded better sales than last year in all segments, including the small stores as well. Outside of the normal business, I think it's also I should point out that we are keeping strategic review.

Due to the fact that we still have different options on the table and if asked about when we decide which one is the only one, we'll be unable to comment any further. I'd like to assure you that the process is going on. Let's go to the presentation now. From a macroeconomic point of view, as you can see, the quarter was based on the inflation and also we feel inflation on both sides, on the cost side and also on the side of our sales. Of course, this inflation is much easier for the consumer in the segments which are dealing directly with the consumer. It's much more tricky when you are dealing with your clients like independent stores and they have their own consumers.

Generally speaking, we do see the increase of inflation on the market. On the other hand, if you are double-click on the Nielsen segments, still discounters are the segment which is growing the fastest on the market. But if I think situation starts to change, especially in our small format, because as you can see in Q3, still the small grocers about below 40 sq m, they were losing. They had negative dynamic, -6%, but on the other hand, the stores between 40 sq m-100 sq m and between 100 sq m-300 sq m, they had positive dynamics. The situation is different, maybe for a part of Eurocash than the previous quarter.

That's why also it helped, as I said at the beginning, to deliver better results, especially on the wholesale side. Also, as I said at the beginning, October, as you can see from the CMR data, which is covering stores between 0 sq m-500 sq m, October was the first quarter after, you know, almost full quarter last quarter, when we delivered positive dynamics of sales of FMCG. On top of this, of course, we have some regulatory changes. On one hand, you will have money in pockets of the people from the perspective of new tax regime for personal persons introduced in Poland. On the other hand, you will have inflation, as I said.

Also what's important in our business, the increase of excise tax was announced, and it was announced in the categories which are relevant for the independent stores, so in alcohol and tobacco. Generally speaking, that should be some tailwind which would help us at the beginning of the year. Coming back into more details, as I said, we increased our group EBITDA by 5%. All of this, it's still with solid operational cash flows and net debt position. Digging more into wholesale is quite stable from the perspective of the sales. As you will see on the detailed slides, you know, we missing sales in Cash & Carry, but it was fully covered by sales of distribution and a little bit by t obacco.

The mix also is more favorable for us because as you remember, tobacco is our lowest margin category. On the side of the distribution, we have much higher margin, which is improving our result. Digitalization is going on, so already 43% of our sales is done through eurocash.pl. Also as we said, the Cash & Carry started to have for the first time in this year, and I will show you the trend for the full year. I mean, nine months as well, positive like-for-likes in October. All in all of this contributed to the increased profitability of the segment. In retail, I think, which is the most awaited for from your perspective, we delivered both sales growth and then the EBITDA improvement.

What happened really is the fact that we are still missing a little bit the top-line growth, but on the other hand, we started to have the margin full control, so we rebuilt the team of our commercial department. Then in reality, we came back to the normal levels. I think from that perspective, that big problems which we're reporting to you in the first two quarters are somehow behind us. I think what we'll try to present during the presentation is the fact as well that, as you know, we announced the closure of this 59 stores.

For the comparable numbers, we are taking them out from the last year results and this year results, so we will be able to compare and measure the impact of this activity on our performance. In projects, as I said, the two big ones are Duży Ben and Frisco. Also I think, we more and more would like to draw your attention to IPH, which is, you know, installation of the independent POS systems, cash-out systems, desk cash systems in independent stores. We achieved more than 2,000 installations until now. In the big numbers, as you can see, that's the segment performance. I will go in details one by one. The gray area which we are showing here, it's impact of this 59 stores.

As you can see, altogether on annual basis, after closure, we will lose, as we said, around PLN 200 million sales and will improve our EBITDA by PLN 17 million-PLN 19 million because we have some seasonality at the bottom line here. From cash flow perspective, we do keep consistent performance, as I said, on the cash generation, but also in the profile of working capital. The fact is that structure of our receivables is probably one of the best in the history of the company, so our clients are recovering fast, and they do have money. Net debt, as I said, on the levels which are very safe, and we don't have any issue here with the bank covenants.

Going into details segment by segment, first, let me say a few words about the wholesale. As I said previously, you can see on the right-hand side that we are covering the gap in Cash & Carry, which is around PLN 60 million, mostly in distribution and partly in tobacco. As I said, it has better influence on the mix and on the profitability of the business because distribution is much more profitable than tobacco, which is visible on the bottom line, where you can see the improvement of the performance in the margin terms and in the nominal values as well. As I said at the beginning, the fact is that our bigger clients, like you know, franchise systems like Lewiatan, they are recovering faster than the small clients in Q3.

Maybe one more word. You will have in the appendix, which we will not present at this time, but if you are interested on our website, you can look into appendix. You have the data of CMR showing the number of transaction per year, per month. We can compare really the number of the transactions year-on-year basis, and you will see that this traffic, which, you know, for a while we're talking about is missing in our segment, is connected directly with the impulse products or, you know, with the movement of people due to lockdown, is coming back to our segment as well.

Wholesale, the only one issue which we have at the top line is Inmedio, which is located in the shopping malls, so we don't have full traffic yet in the shopping malls after pandemic. Delikatesy Centrum are performing strongly, so in all segments, I will show you in a second, partnership stores, the own stores and franchise stores, we improved results significantly. All of this is visible not only from the perspective of top line, but also from the bottom line. EBITDA grew to PLN 85 million.

You know, in the projections, as we said, we'll try to give you a little bit more flavor in a second, regarding the performance of the segments, but really the big story, it's about Frisco. We entered next city, and we are planning next city this quarter. The fact is also, please remember, because it's a little bit new, I think, for all of us, and I should stress it out, Frisco is having a little bit different seasonality than the rest of the group. The group usually is having the first quarter, the weakest one, and the strongest ones are in the middle of the year, where we are selling usually good products and we are doing profitability Q4.

It's different in Frisco because Frisco is located in the big cities, so Q3 in reality is the weakest during the year, because simply people from the big cities usually they are going somewhere on holidays much more frequently. So somehow demand is moving with them. We are keeping Duży Ben development, so as we stated before, if you would stop the project right now, it's profitable at the breakeven. However, we are keep opening the stores and the full project together with this opening should be profitable 2023. In the two biggest projects, as of now, I think we are quite well ahead of final result. Let me go into operational data a little bit. On the wholesale side, on the right-hand side, you have this like-for-likes illustration of Cash & Carry.

As you can see, we started the year with negative dynamic of -12.6%. It went still down but up to 8.4% in Q2 and 4.8% in Q3. However, as I said, in October for the first time we have positive dynamic and also November started quite well. What's important and worth to point out, it's on the left-hand side, that 42% up from 31% of sales. Right now it's done through electronic platform, and already we have 26,000 clients on this platform. Of course, we connect first the bigger ones.

Right now, I think we'll be able to present you on the next conference call a little bit our concept regarding e-Cash & Carry, how to connect the small clients of Cash & Carry with our platform. Retail data. Usually we are presenting in three segments. As you can see, partner shops, they reach very good performance, 10.4% like-for-likes in comparison with 3.9% last year. Franchise stores are quite stable, 1.4%- 1.3%. In the own stores, the bigger part of the own stores starts to be profitable. As you may remember, we're running this project of recovery of the stores, so it brings some result. The fact is also that we decided to close the weakest ones.

The improvement is from -7.6% to -2.6%. Frisco, we have the sales in different cities. The sales on the annual basis grew 13%, total sales. Duży Ben, as I commented, should be right now, you know, profitable if we stop expansion, so the dynamic is very nice, 8.5%. IPH, which is the POS system, we have more than 2,000 installations right now. Of course, that's the important factor for the future as well. We talked about this one day, that it's complementary to extension of eurocash.pl, first into the marketplace and secondly into the POS systems to be able to deliver and grab the information regarding the consumers on the independent segment itself.

In summary, we are very glad to present these results. I think what's important is that we feel like, you know, the bottom could be behind us. I think market change also into our favor, beginning of Q4, it's also quite reasonable from our perspective. Thank you very much and I will give voice to Magda, and we open Q&A session, I guess.

Magdalena Kupiec
Head of Investor Relations, Eurocash Group

Thank you, Jacek. I think we can start our Q&A session. In fact, we've got first question, so maybe I will answer for the first one. The closure of 59 stores is included in the number of stores that you present in your financial data. For example, small supermarkets, 1,594. Probably this question concerns the Excel files that are available on our website. Those files do not include the closure of 59 stores. Next question, taking into account current level of fuel prices and expected price increases for energy, what can be the effect for your results in 2022?

Jacek Owczarek
CFO, Eurocash Group

Okay. The fuel prices increased in our case year-on-year basis at the end of Q3 7%. The total increase of energy, I'm sorry, we'd need to check, but for sure it's also significant. What is happening on the side of our group is that due to this digitalization effort, for example, in wholesale, on the wholesale side, we're able to absorb all of these increases of inflation in cost, if you wish, by increased efficiency. I would expect the same coming in the next months because, you know, the trend, it's not only this year, maybe it's a little bit more visible for the consumer, but the fact is that the prices are growing quite steadily for a while.

Also we are not talking here in the question. We don't have the question regarding the minimum salary, but of course that's very constant over the years. The fact is that we are gaining, we need to gain efficiency in our business model on daily basis, and we do try to do it.

Magdalena Kupiec
Head of Investor Relations, Eurocash Group

Okay. Thank you. Next question. Effective tax rate for Q3 is almost 50%, year to date even higher. What is the reason for it?

Jacek Owczarek
CFO, Eurocash Group

Yeah. In the effective tax rate, I think we need to split two different points of view. The first one, it's exactly like somebody proposed who asked this question. I'm sorry because I don't see the questions on my screen, so I cannot use the name. The fact is that what we do, we decided not to provide for any tax asset in the retail companies, in own retail companies. Because as you know, we are blending right now the group, and of course we are paying taxes based on the legal entities. The fact is that our pre-tax profit center, it's really Eurocash S.A., and in reality, Delikatesy Centrum Sp. z o.o. which is, you know, where we have own stores, it's negative.

Due to the fact that, you know, we had this write off and still we are also discussing this strategic options, we decided not to create any new deferred tax assets. On the other hand, I'd like to draw your attention to the cash flow statement, when you can check that year-on-year basis, we do pay lower tax. From the cash flow perspective, please refer to the cash flow, and then you can calculate the tax rate, which is more cash-based, how you are paying to the tax office. Then comparison of the accounting result of deferred tax, I think it's a little bit misleading. I do agree, thank you for this question. I hope I was able to explain it.

Magdalena Kupiec
Head of Investor Relations, Eurocash Group

Okay. Next question. In your presentation, you wrote that rising inflation and next year excise tax increase giving tailwind to your Eurocash Group. Therefore, I'm asking for an attempt to materialize this expectation, example, at the level of the revenue and margin target for wholesale and retail segment.

Jacek Owczarek
CFO, Eurocash Group

Okay. The excise tax from mathematical point of view, it's increasing top line simply because you will sell the top line, which is more than growing by 10%, which is the excise tax. In reality, assuming the same margins you are realizing, you have more money in the nominal terms. That's the meaning of the first one. Taking into consideration our experience from the past years, because that's not the first excise tax increase on vodka and beer. We're able to stock successfully and then being able also to offload this value during the Q1. Probably we'll try to repeat exactly the same action. Inflation, you know, speaking from the consumer sales perspective, and please remember that we are in the segment which is selling food.

Something which is not so easy to substitute and stop buying. The fact is that, also the effect is quite similar like excise tax I explained to you. The top line grows and when you are keeping your margins, which was not true in the first two quarters of our performance, which we discussed with you. Generally speaking, you are benefiting in money terms.

Magdalena Kupiec
Head of Investor Relations, Eurocash Group

Okay. Next question. How should we see IPH as a standalone project business or is a marketing tool for your customers in wholesale?

Jacek Owczarek
CFO, Eurocash Group

For the time being, I think it will have a few different functions within the group. From our clients' perspective, I think it's one of the tools which is usually available much easier for the integrated operators like discounters, for example. Based on the data which we are grabbing in POS systems, we'll be able, for example, to put loyalty system for our clients, or we are able to push more effectively promotions to our clients. Please bear in mind that in reality we are working with all relevant suppliers in this country. We have all together in database more than 1,000 suppliers delivering every day to different Eurocash parts.

In reality, from the consumer perspective, the small store could get the access to really whatever promotion available on the market. From our perspective, all of this is also about data. That's the extension of our model more and more into the data-driven one, which is somehow also, you know, natural step if you are taking into consideration development of eurocash.pl, which is, as you can see right now, quite advanced because as we said, we are delivering more than 40% of sales already through this platform. That's natural extension of our wholesale model for future.

Magdalena Kupiec
Head of Investor Relations, Eurocash Group

Okay. Another question. Other operating income and costs amount to PLN 10 million versus -PLN 3.7 million in Q3 2020 and improved EBIT by year-on-year by 14 million. Can you describe the most significant reasons for the difference and whether are there included some one-offs?

Jacek Owczarek
CFO, Eurocash Group

Yeah. The biggest movement, almost PLN 5 million, is connected with the reversal of the provision. Altogether of rest of trade receivables provision. Altogether, as you read in our financial statement, when based on our accounting policy, we are providing whatever it's older than six months is. As I said at the beginning, due to fact that really our clients started to have quite a lot of money. Part of the provisions which was provided last quarters, and we never called them, honestly speaking, one-offs. That's part of our operational business. That's the way of recording them rather. Right now are reversed. That's probably the biggest number which I have here in my... I don't know, Magda, could you add anything here? It's...

Magdalena Kupiec
Head of Investor Relations, Eurocash Group

No, nothing special.

Jacek Owczarek
CFO, Eurocash Group

If needed, just please drop us offline and we'll try to provide you a little bit more breakdown of the discussion. But that's, for sure, the biggest one.

Magdalena Kupiec
Head of Investor Relations, Eurocash Group

I don't see any further questions right now. Please, if you've got any question, put it on the chat. Maybe we'll give you some more time to think. Okay. I think we've got all the questions.

Jacek Owczarek
CFO, Eurocash Group

Okay.

Magdalena Kupiec
Head of Investor Relations, Eurocash Group

Answered.

Jacek Owczarek
CFO, Eurocash Group

We do assume that our presentation was clear enough, not to have too many questions. I think it's always easier to wait for the questions when the solid quarter is behind you rather than, you know, something which was turbulent.

Magdalena Kupiec
Head of Investor Relations, Eurocash Group

Oh, no. We have.

Jacek Owczarek
CFO, Eurocash Group

Oh, I'm sorry.

Magdalena Kupiec
Head of Investor Relations, Eurocash Group

What is the outlook for Q 2021?

Jacek Owczarek
CFO, Eurocash Group

As I said, you know, the Q4 started from the sales perspective quite well, above last year's in all segments. That's probably all that we can tell you right now. We're in the middle of this quarter, so assuming no lockdowns, I really believe more and more consumers will come back to our segment.

Magdalena Kupiec
Head of Investor Relations, Eurocash Group

Another question, what's the reason behind a closure of Cash & Carry warehouse? The number of our Cash & Carry warehouses decreased by one to 179, and the reason was very simple. Those both warehouses were too close to each other and we are able to convert the clients from one to the other and cut the cost. It's rather operational closing than anything bad happening in the business. Next question. No, it's not. It's answered already.

Jacek Owczarek
CFO, Eurocash Group

Okay. That's our new tradition, I think with Magda, that when I start to say thank you very much, she starts to read the questions. It happens second quarter in a row. But being more serious, the fact is that, you know, as we said, we started quarter quite well, so we try to keep heart to not disappoint you in Q4 results, which we'll publish at the beginning of next year. Thank you very much for your attention and attendance, the time you spent with us. I hope you find it interesting. Thank you very much.

Magdalena Kupiec
Head of Investor Relations, Eurocash Group

Thank you very much.

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